Search found 217 matches

by cheezit
Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Negotiating" Salary
Replies: 74
Views: 5385

Re: "Negotiating" Salary

Is the reason to avoid the question because you don’t know what you are worth? Or is it that you are worried that you are worth more than they are willing to pay? The reason to avoid the question is to try to extract the maximum amount of employer surplus possible in the case of a wide salary range...
by cheezit
Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!
Replies: 104
Views: 9116

Re: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!

It's un-inverted! The Re-Un-Inversioning is upon us! I can hear the hoof beats of the Four Horsemen of the Economocalypse! RRRRUUUUUNNNNNN!!!! This has caused the Iron Maiden song paying in my head to change from "Run To The Hills" to "The Trooper." Ah, the 80's. I'm feeling "Die with your Boots On...
by cheezit
Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Negotiating" Salary
Replies: 74
Views: 5385

Re: "Negotiating" Salary

If this is anything but an entry level job (ie. for a recent college grad) than eventually you will need to give a number in my experience. The trick is to postpone it as long as possible. I don't think anyone but the hiring manager needs a number. I certainly would not give HR or a recruiter any n...
by cheezit
Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Oh geeze. How should I pay for this? Walk me off the ledge
Replies: 52
Views: 6297

Re: Oh geeze. How should I pay for this? Walk me off the ledge

The last time my wife and I had a baby, I subtracted my current HSA balance from my deductible cap, divided the number by ten, then increased my paycheck HSA contribution by that amount for ten pay periods. Since your child is due in a month, you could fund your HSA as aggressively as you can. Remem...
by cheezit
Thu Aug 01, 2019 10:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Automatic Watches
Replies: 92
Views: 5468

Re: Automatic Watches

Glad to hear your Seiko 5 is treating you well so far. A typical automatic movement like the 7S26 in your Seiko will gain or lose different amounts of time overnight depending on the position you leave it in (face up, crown up, crown down, etc). If you're lucky, you will have at least one position w...
by cheezit
Mon Jul 22, 2019 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forex Trading
Replies: 21
Views: 1198

Re: Forex Trading

One place to start in sussing out the unknown unknowns would be the half-dozen publications from the CFTC warning investors about different aspects of the forex market. The CFTC has very limited power to regulate forex for the same reasons that nobody else can really do so, but they are at least abl...
by cheezit
Fri Jul 19, 2019 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?
Replies: 204
Views: 18080

Re: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?

[It's ]logical that risk premium has fallen, but it should logically never be negative. Could you elaborate on this? Certainly the observed equity risk premium has sometimes been negative for long periods in a number of markets, and I don't see why circumstances (eg. extreme valuations) could not m...
by cheezit
Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sustainability of State and Local Government Pensions
Replies: 9
Views: 1365

Re: Sustainability of State and Local Government Pensions

Additionally, here are links to an introduction, How bad is the state and local pension crisis really? , and a Q&A page, Are state and local pension funds really in crisis? . I haven't read the brief yet, but the first Q&A reads like a breath of fresh air! Finally, some sanity is introduced into th...
by cheezit
Tue Jul 16, 2019 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedore: Are TIPS Cheap?
Replies: 5
Views: 949

Re: Larry Swedore: Are TIPS Cheap?

OTOH [the Fed] and other central banks are on a streak of generally failing to reach their inflation targets. My understanding was that the Fed had a "symmetrical" (their terminology) inflation target that they aim for and will accept some error in either direction, whereas most other central banks...
by cheezit
Sat Jul 06, 2019 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was the great bond bull market just plain bull?
Replies: 47
Views: 5355

Re: Was the great bond bull market just plain bull?

Another thing to note: in an environment where interest rates rise once (the rates vs time curve is a step function), the break-even point for a fund after a rate increase will be approximately equal to the average duration of the fund. In an environment where interest rates rise continuously (the r...
by cheezit
Sat Jul 06, 2019 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was the great bond bull market just plain bull?
Replies: 47
Views: 5355

Re: Was the great bond bull market just plain bull?

long-term treasury bond funds such as VUSTX (Vanguard's LTT fund), TLT and TMF. Just a quick note, VGLT/VLGSX is a more attractive Vanguard LTT fund than VUSTX/VUSUX. Similar duration, lower expenses due to to being passively managed rather than active (not that VUSTX's expenses are high). VUSTX is...
by cheezit
Wed Jul 03, 2019 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 259994

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

The German 10-years with negative nominal yields have coupon rates of zero and purchase prices above par.
by cheezit
Wed Jul 03, 2019 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 259994

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Germany and Japan long term rates are below zero. Where are you looking? Bloomberg shows the German 30-year yield as +0.20% and Japanese 30-year yield as +0.34% and 20-year as +0.21% (there is no German 20-year bond). We still have quite a ways to fall. Definitely a possibility; 0% yield is only a ...
by cheezit
Thu Jun 27, 2019 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Zero Interest Rates Forever...if true, is it actionable?
Replies: 25
Views: 3040

Re: Zero Interest Rates Forever...if true, is it actionable?

“There will be no coupon payments, nor present discounting of STRIPS. All competing interest-bearing securities will be destroyed. But always— do not forget this, Frank2012— always there will be the intoxication of inflated equity valuations, constantly increasing and constantly growing subtler. Alw...
by cheezit
Wed Jun 26, 2019 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Advertising Mutual Fund to ETF Conversion
Replies: 128
Views: 9185

Re: Vanguard Advertising Mutual Fund to ETF Conversion

Vulcan, I don't agree with you on the magnitude of the marginal hassle of purchasing ETF shares over purchasing mutual fund shares, but I can see how one might feel that way. That being said: If I purchase ETF shares at $x at 10:00 and at that moment NAV is $x * 0.99, I have "lost" 1% on those share...
by cheezit
Wed Jun 26, 2019 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Advertising Mutual Fund to ETF Conversion
Replies: 128
Views: 9185

Re: Vanguard Advertising Mutual Fund to ETF Conversion

They are demonstrating that they have fiduciary duty to their clients. If they didn't tell their clients that the clients could get a lower expense ratio investment for the exact same thing, then they could be sued. Leaving Vanguard's motivations aside, I would question whether MF and ETF are the "...
by cheezit
Wed Jun 26, 2019 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: How Trading Costs Erode Factor Returns
Replies: 43
Views: 4341

Re: Larry Swedroe: How Trading Costs Erode Factor Returns

ALL FACTOR INVESTING IS ACTIVE MANAGEMENT. WRITING IN ALL CAPS DOESN'T MEAN YOU'RE RIGHT! vineviz: Whether written in large-caps or small-caps Vanguard agrees with Rick: https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/factor-funds Best wishes. Taylor Taylor, No, they do not. While both would call the six funds V...
by cheezit
Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Advertising Mutual Fund to ETF Conversion
Replies: 128
Views: 9185

Re: Vanguard Advertising Mutual Fund to ETF Conversion

They are demonstrating that they have fiduciary duty to their clients. If they didn't tell their clients that the clients could get a lower expense ratio investment for the exact same thing, then they could be sued. Leaving Vanguard's motivations aside, I would question whether MF and ETF are the "...
by cheezit
Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: How Trading Costs Erode Factor Returns
Replies: 43
Views: 4341

Re: Larry Swedroe: How Trading Costs Erode Factor Returns

The process sorts and ranks stocks, then weighs constituents based on those factors. Turnover is ongoing. Absolutely no question this strategy is active management. What is your definition of "active management"? I can see the argument that VFMF and DFSVX are actively managed, but calling the strat...
by cheezit
Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to offer private equity investments? Thoughts?
Replies: 69
Views: 6920

Re: Vanguard to offer private equity investments? Thoughts?

PE ownership in a lot of ways is a superior way for companies to build value. What experience do you have working for firms owned by private equity companies? IME a PE firm is the worst possible owner. I am extremely lucky that my current employer had a brief tenure being owned by a PE firm, and th...
by cheezit
Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to offer private equity investments? Thoughts?
Replies: 69
Views: 6920

Re: Vanguard to offer private equity investments? Thoughts?

PE ownership in a lot of ways is a superior way for companies to build value. What experience do you have working for firms owned by private equity companies? IME a PE firm is the worst possible owner. I am extremely lucky that my current employer had a brief tenure being owned by a PE firm, and th...
by cheezit
Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to offer private equity investments? Thoughts?
Replies: 69
Views: 6920

Re: Vanguard to offer private equity investments? Thoughts?

PE ownership in a lot of ways is a superior way for companies to build value. What experience do you have working for firms owned by private equity companies? IME a PE firm is the worst possible owner. I am extremely lucky that my current employer had a brief tenure being owned by a PE firm, and th...
by cheezit
Wed Jun 19, 2019 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help with math
Replies: 34
Views: 2350

Re: Help with math

In the first scenario, the entire principal amount grows with the market for the entire 30 year period. In the second scenario, the first $40k invested grows with the market for the entire 30 year period, the second $40k invested grows with the market for 29 years 11 months, and so on down to the la...
by cheezit
Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018
Replies: 121
Views: 7361

Re: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018

Is there any way to find the composition of the category over the years in question? I know that I had some questions when I clicked your link for NAESX vs. small blend - namely, why does Morningstar categorize NAESX as a mid-cap growth fund describe NAESX's investment style mid-cap growth while put...
by cheezit
Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How safe are pensions in the U.S.?
Replies: 87
Views: 9399

Re: How safe are pensions in the U.S.?

The fearmongering on this forum regarding pensions is clearly being driven by a few who don't like them and would like one. It's agenda-driven, and sorting out the FUD on this topic has been an insurmountable task. You can blithely accuse everyone in the thread who doesn't agree with you of arguing...
by cheezit
Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factors: After being spotted in the wild, where have they gone?
Replies: 22
Views: 2449

Re: Factors: After being spotted in the wild, where have they gone?

Beliavsky wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:19 pm
Forester wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:28 am
Have worked since 2000;
-size
-momentum
-time series momentum
-min vol

Jury is out on Value.
Can you cite ETFs or mutual funds that have used these factors to outperform since 2000?
Size is easy given that starting date
by cheezit
Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you buy VTSAX or VTI in a taxable account?
Replies: 16
Views: 1789

Re: Should you buy VTSAX or VTI in a taxable account?

smalliebigs wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:12 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:55 pm
Often times ETFs are more tax efficient but at VG they are both equivalent due to a patented trick of theirs.
Saw this mentioned twice today now. What's this "patented trick" that you're referring to?
Here's an article describing it
by cheezit
Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 9879

Re: The Case Against ETFs

With regards to the cash drag issue, the way I get around this is by having one fund that I hold in TIF form rather than ETF form and rebalancing in bands with new purchases, with the leftover cash after buying the ETFs to bring them all into their bands going into the TIF.
by cheezit
Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How safe are pensions in the U.S.?
Replies: 87
Views: 9399

Re: How safe are pensions in the U.S.?

Not too safe in California. On what basis do you make this statement? Moderators? Speculation and politics here. Not actionable. Cuts to public employee pensions in California have already happened and continue to happen, typically in the form of a haircut when insolvent municipalities or joint pow...
by cheezit
Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Vanguard value factor exposure?
Replies: 42
Views: 2982

Re: Best Vanguard value factor exposure?

pdavi21 wrote:
Wed Jun 12, 2019 3:41 pm

Perhaps you can give me two very commonly used small cap value mutual funds or ETFs that have followed different indices over their lifetime and have had nearly identical performance (EDIT: Long term) that adequately distinguishes itself from the total market?
Here you go
by cheezit
Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VFMF (Vanguard Multifactor) == Closet Value Index Fund
Replies: 70
Views: 6673

Re: VFMF (Vanguard Multifactor) == Closet Value Index Fund

I've been following the performance (I don't own the fund) of VFMF (Vanguard Multifactor). And trying to figure out why the terrible performance, given that Momentum and Quality have been doing ok. I wouldn't necessarily take that as a given. Since the inception of VFMF, the monthly factor premiums...
by cheezit
Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Individual treasuries vs treasury funds
Replies: 41
Views: 3718

Re: Individual treasuries vs treasury funds

VGLT and VLGSX cost 7 basis points; the former has a minimum investment equal to the price of one share, the latter has a minimum of $3k. It's the same situation for other durations (VGSH/VSBSX , VGIT/VSIGX, etc). VUSXX is a treasury money-market fund, not a treasury bond fund.
by cheezit
Fri Apr 26, 2019 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 324
Views: 40969

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

They certainly aren't guaranteeing purchasing power, and at least in the U.S., they cannot (or at least don't at the national level) require that that currency be accepted by private parties. Yes they do. It says so right on the bill! "This note is legal tender for all debts, public and private."
by cheezit
Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total World Stock (VTWAX) and All-World ex-US Small Cap Admiral Shares (VFSAX) now available (February 7)
Replies: 181
Views: 21697

Re: Vanguard Total World Stock (VTWAX) and All-World ex-US Small Cap Admiral Shares (VFSAX) now available (February 7)

Why do VTWAX and VT overweight US vs international as a percentage of total world market cap? VTWAX currently has 54.5% in US, while currently the US is more like 40% of total world market cap. What gives? Are all Total World indices overweighting the US? The short answer is "they don't and it isn'...
by cheezit
Fri Apr 12, 2019 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a house next year. Wife wants a big house. Thoughts?
Replies: 104
Views: 9126

Re: Buying a house next year. Wife wants a big house. Thoughts?

It almost defies belief what is considered to be a normal house. I grew up in 1800 square feet (+ unfinished basement) -- family of 4. We certainly were not deprived. I live in 1550 square feet now (2 people, no basement) - that is plenty of space. My father interestingly grew up in 8+ bedroom hous...
by cheezit
Fri Apr 12, 2019 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 278
Views: 23997

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

barnaclebob wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:46 am
Nobody is doubting the usefulness of blockchain technology.
Lots of people are doubting the usefulness of blockchains, cf. this article and these discussions among programmers who once formed the core
of blockchain's fanbase.
by cheezit
Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thrift Savings Plan expenses rising
Replies: 50
Views: 4539

Re: Thrift Savings Plan expenses rising

One basis point is significant?
by cheezit
Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: physics/math major looking for programmer/analyst job?
Replies: 111
Views: 9459

Re: physics/math major looking for programmer/analyst job?

thought I'd post a final update to this thread, my nephew turned down an IT role (really a support/help desk role) at an off-shore firm and took a job as a risk analyst at a top-shelf reinsurance firm. While his math and stats skills are core to the role, the year he spent learning to program has p...
by cheezit
Wed Apr 10, 2019 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holding LT Treasury bonds in high equity portfolio with flat yield curve
Replies: 36
Views: 2934

Re: Holding LT Treasury bonds in high equity portfolio with flat yield curve

If you know rates will rise, LT treasuries are a terrible choice, but nobody knows that. It depends on your investment horizon in comparison to the duration of your LT treasuries, and also the "shape" of the rate increase. For a rate increase that is a step change (so "d_rate/d_t" is a Dirac delta ...
by cheezit
Wed Apr 10, 2019 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rent vs buy calculator that accounts for 2019 tax changes?
Replies: 5
Views: 470

Re: Rent vs buy calculator that accounts for 2019 tax changes?

Setting your tax rate to zero in the NYT calculator is a decent first-order approximation in the meantime.
by cheezit
Wed Apr 10, 2019 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Socially Responsible [Investing]
Replies: 58
Views: 3935

Re: Socially Responsible

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&endDate=04%2F09%2F2019&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&a...
by cheezit
Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Socially Responsible [Investing]
Replies: 58
Views: 3935

Re: Socially Responsible

ACADEMIC EXERCIXE ONLY: Believe socially responsible (some might say self-congratulatory virtue signaling) funds have a history of underpeformance each and every year. Wonder why some investment company hasn't introduced a factor fund that eliminates companies deemed by (someone or group of someone...
by cheezit
Tue Apr 09, 2019 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Socially Responsible [Investing]
Replies: 58
Views: 3935

Re: Socially Responsible

VICEX has slightly overperformed the S&P 500 over it's entire history , despite having a massive ~1.45% ER hurdle to clear compared to a typical cheap index fund. That being said, without looking at factor regressions for the fund who knows whether this is just small caps having done well over the ...
by cheezit
Mon Apr 08, 2019 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Performance Of State Pension Plans
Replies: 46
Views: 5066

Re: Larry Swedroe: Performance Of State Pension Plans

AlphaLess wrote:
Sun Apr 07, 2019 11:12 pm
I never understood what it means for a pension fund to be x% funded.

Isn't the funding ratio just the ratio of money actually in the fund to money needed to cover liabilities given an assumed rate of growth for the fund's assets and some actuarial assumptions about future liabilities?
by cheezit
Fri Apr 05, 2019 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund
Replies: 192
Views: 21326

Re: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund

Whakamole wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 9:29 am
Will it offer in-kind redemption, I'd love to have a truck of pork bellies delivered to my door.
Now we're talking!
by cheezit
Thu Apr 04, 2019 9:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Landlord looking to buy out my lease. Whats a reasonable price?
Replies: 73
Views: 5303

Re: Landlord looking to buy out my lease. Whats a reasonable price?

I don't see what you have to gain by throwing out the first number here, or by rushing to reach an agreement. You don't want to get stuck in a new place you don't like because you hurried your search. IMO let the landlord know you'll entertain specific offers while you take your time looking at apar...
by cheezit
Tue Apr 02, 2019 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Performance Of State Pension Plans
Replies: 46
Views: 5066

Re: Larry Swedroe: Performance Of State Pension Plans

The pension issues seem solvable if someone is willing to make some hard decisions. But, at least in IL, no one is ever willing to make those decisions. Depends on the hard decisions that get made, assuming that nobody makes the especially hard decision to invent a time machine. I live in one of th...
by cheezit
Tue Apr 02, 2019 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?
Replies: 148
Views: 19467

Re: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?

The big question in my mind is how much liquidity will these HUGE IPOs take out of the market and will any of them be added to any indexes any time soon. Depends on which indices your funds track. The IPOs will be in Total Market indices pretty quickly (end of quarter?), whereas they need something...
by cheezit
Fri Mar 29, 2019 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Timing the mortgage market
Replies: 26
Views: 2385

Re: Timing the mortgage market

Not suggesting this, but could one effectively hedge against the opportunity cost of further 10y yield decreases by initiating a sort of "ladder" of call options on 10-year treasury futures for a certain range of dates?
by cheezit
Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why The Size Premium Should Persist
Replies: 62
Views: 4073

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why The Size Premium Should Persist

The DFA US Micro Cap Portfolio fund, DFSCX, was launched literally within the same year, 1981, as the publication of the original paper that brought the size effect to wide notice--"The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," by Rolf Banz. It is managed by a fund company wel...