Search found 326 matches

by cheezit
Fri Jul 10, 2020 8:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ISO career advice: Dramatically increasing income but moving from lower COL area to Stamford CT
Replies: 18
Views: 1410

Re: ISO career advice: Dramatically increasing income but moving from lower COL area to Stamford CT

How close is your prospective employer to the train station in Stamford? Living in Fairfield or Black Rock (not the rest of Bridgeport) or the nicer parts of Stratford or even Milford would probably be feasible with a train commute. Trying to drive with traffic around Stamford on 95 or 15 in the mor...
by cheezit
Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rightful owners" of stocks and the pandemic
Replies: 22
Views: 1998

Re: "Rightful owners" of stocks and the pandemic

I completely disagree with Dr. Bernstein's analysis of the "problem", as well as the "cure." He and some on this board bemoan the increasing wealth gap. Having helped many individuals through the years, it is my contention that the main reason the gap continues to increase, and likely always will (...
by cheezit
Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reality check: why would anyone buy a Stone Ridge Longevity fund?
Replies: 21
Views: 1745

Re: Reality check: why would anyone buy a Stone Ridge Longevity fund?

The only thing I can think of is that there is some (limited) liquidity with these funds that isn't there with an annuity. Eg. you can sell your shares (at a reduced price) 10 years in with these funds, whereas you couldn't "cash out" of an SPIA: Optional Early Share Repurchases . To provide liquidi...
by cheezit
Wed Jul 08, 2020 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 170
Views: 18571

Re: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?

Incidentally, QSPIX didn't increase volatility. It isn't intended as a complete replacement for bonds in a portfolio, and Swedroe et al. never advocated it as such. Here's what QSPIX has done when added to a 3-fund portfolio: https://i.imgur.com/J33hxWs.png Fig. 1 - the effect of QSPIX in a portfoli...
by cheezit
Tue Jul 07, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 170
Views: 18571

Re: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?

Overall correlation between QSPIX and equities has been 0.06 over the lifetime of the fund (which is pretty darn market-neutral), though eyeballing things it seems like there have been two correlation regimes: https://i.imgur.com/vqBhBzb.png Who knows whether the switchover from a moderate positive ...
by cheezit
Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 170
Views: 18571

Re: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?

Not sure why this fund is even discussed. From inception 10/13/2013 a $10K investment is now worth $9088.26 vs. $20,717.34 if the same money had gone into the S&P 500 (VFIAX). It seems apparent to me some people made big money from this fund, unfortunately that did not include the investors. Those ...
by cheezit
Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Stone Ridge interval funds, 1) bitcoin futures, 2) for 65-year-old women only (sort of)
Replies: 28
Views: 1764

Re: New Stone Ridge interval funds, 1) bitcoin futures, 2) for 65-year-old women only (sort of)

The first one is a bitcoin futures fund, BTCNX. It apparently was launched in January, 2020. For those who like this sort of thing, this is the sort of thing they will like. That is all I am going to say. I have zero interest in investing in bitcoin and even less interest in investing in bitcoin fu...
by cheezit
Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 170
Views: 18571

Re: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?

So it's not multi-strategy, it made a huge bet on value, and lost. Not really what most expect from an alternative, multi-strategy fund. The Fund invests long and short across five different asset groups (stocks & industries, equity indices, fixed income, currencies and commodities) and four invest...
by cheezit
Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in whiskey
Replies: 18
Views: 826

Re: Investing in whiskey

I don't have the time to do a Valuethinker-style longform writeup, but the tl;dr version is: look at MGP's most recent earnings report, and be aware that it happened in the context of a long-running bourbon and rye boom of almost unprecedented magnitude.
by cheezit
Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is wealthfront Stock Level investing under appreciated by Boglehead community?
Replies: 47
Views: 2836

Re: Is wealthfront Stock Level investing under appreciated by Boglehead community?

How much are you losing by eating on average half the spread in each of these frequent trades, especially for the least liquid stocks?
by cheezit
Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 18926

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

Meanwhile if we look at VGTSX from January of 2000 (!!!) until today, VGTSX has only returned 14.70% (not counting dividends, as I can't find an online calculator that will compute total return for it.) PV to the rescue! The total return over that period, including dividends, was +83%. Over the sam...
by cheezit
Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 18926

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

Meanwhile if we look at VGTSX from January of 2000 (!!!) until today, VGTSX has only returned 14.70% (not counting dividends, as I can't find an online calculator that will compute total return for it.) PV to the rescue! The total return over that period, including dividends, was +83%. Over the sam...
by cheezit
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 18926

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

To me, the key question remains "what could threaten the US dominance in technology", since that dominance is the reason for its recent and future outperformance. One possible answer is perhaps other countries achieving monumental improvements in their technology industries, though the US has been ...
by cheezit
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rental properties: best-performing asset class in 2020?
Replies: 55
Views: 1946

Re: Rental properties: best-performing asset class in 2020?

tomtoms wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:44 am
1) What bank is going to lend you 80% of your investment at low interest rate so you can play the stock market?
Between M1 and the 'banks' of Proshares and DirexionDaily, you can probably achieve 10x leverage cheaply if you're OK with the various ways that can blow up in your face.
by cheezit
Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellington and Wellesley hold zero stocks in the "materials" sector?
Replies: 12
Views: 1731

Re: Wellington and Wellesley hold zero stocks in the "materials" sector?

My guess is that it's not a matter of "principle," rather just that they don't hold that many stocks (Wellington 62, Wellesley 67), and so they happen not to own a single company that gets classified under materials. If you picked 67 companies at random (not saying that's their methodology, of cour...
by cheezit
Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How is Bridgewater's Pure Alpha Fund II doing since the coronavirus hit us?
Replies: 11
Views: 1151

Re: How is Bridgewater's Pure Alpha Fund II doing since the coronavirus hit us?

I thought the idea behind the Pure Alpha fund was that they'd be neither net-long nor net-short at all times (hence the name)?
by cheezit
Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%
Replies: 120
Views: 11557

Re: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%

... As a cynic, I assume that they would tell us if the results were good. Since they don't tell us, I assume the predictions were as unreliable as one might expect... +1 I bet they would be better off if they quit making the projections and devoted the salaries of the guys making them to reducing ...
by cheezit
Wed Jun 10, 2020 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: doubts on avoiding on bid-ask spread cost
Replies: 12
Views: 655

Re: doubts avoiding on bid-ask spread cost

In general, worrying about the bid/ask spread is just a waste of nerve impulses. For the things you should want to own, to buy, and to sell, the bid/ask spread is essentially meaningless and really doesn't cost you any meaningful amount of money unless pennies mean something significant to you. Tha...
by cheezit
Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking at buying house with in-ground pool. What questions should we ask?
Replies: 62
Views: 3828

Re: Looking at buying house with in-ground pool. What questions should we ask?

From what I understand fiberglass pools or someone else’s pool are the only way to go after quite a bit of research. I’d be very cautious otherwise. Of course the quality of install with any type is a massive factor...my wife is 100% for it and I was 100% against a pool given the several problem st...
by cheezit
Sun May 31, 2020 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”
Replies: 233
Views: 19349

Re: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”

Interesting comments re: the interaction of early retirement and the LMP approach. I had figured one of the canonical examples of the utility of a LMP was as a "bridge" between early retirement and the onset of social security benefits, say from age 55 to 70. One other thing to note: the pricing for...
by cheezit
Fri May 22, 2020 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 18600

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

Now, here's the tricky part: how do you rebalance without taking interest rate risk if you buy a 30 year? You probably wouldn't be rebalancing from long-term bonds to short-term bonds, so rebalancing doesn't typically affect your average portfolio duration. So you would not be rebalancing from long...
by cheezit
Tue May 19, 2020 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 9226

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

The reason to avoid China's equity markets can be summarized in one word: dilution. The best estimates are that the Chinese equity markets dilute their share pools on the order of about 20% per year, so even if the country is growing its GDP and corporate profits at slightly less than 10% pa, they ...
by cheezit
Tue May 19, 2020 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools
Replies: 346
Views: 18600

Re: Rekenthaler: Long Bonds Are for Fools

If one assumes that there is a risk premium for time committed to the investment, and that currently the yield curve is fairly flat; it is hard for me to see how an investor may be willing to commit to such duration when with a significantly shorter duration he/she can get a a better risk/reward. T...
by cheezit
Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV fund which screens for quality
Replies: 21
Views: 1019

Re: SCV fund which screens for quality

IJR, VIOV and SLYV all track the S&P 600 Value index, which effectively screens for quality. And all are pretty cheap as far as SCV funds go as well.

e: for reference, VIOV and SLYV both have ERs of 0.15%, SLYV is 0.25%.
by cheezit
Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds performance - Q1 2020
Replies: 151
Views: 6355

Re: Vanguard factor funds performance - Q1 2020

There are good reasons not to tilt, even if you believe that the FF model is accurate and HmL has a positive expected return. The FF model doesn’t really matter for determining whether or not to tilt, because all it essentially says is, if you tilt to value and value does better than growth, you wi...
by cheezit
Thu Apr 16, 2020 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 32019

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

JoMoney wrote:
Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:16 am
As I've already pointed out, even at a 0% fixed rate a TIPS ladder would guarantee a portfolio a 3.33% 30 year inflation adjusted withdrawal.
Right now, 5-year TIPS are yielding -0.5% real and 30-year TIPS are yielding -0.2% real. And there's nothing that says they can't go lower :/
by cheezit
Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch
Replies: 64
Views: 7227

Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Whatever you do, don't switch to American whiskey. Too many good bourbons and ryes have already gone up in price or become hard to find in recent years, I shudder to think what an influx of former scotch drinkers would do. Which ones are you thinking of? More or less anything that has won a medal a...
by cheezit
Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Government stimulus payments]
Replies: 358
Views: 28702

Re: Report when you receive your stimulus check here

Mine came in yesterday.
by cheezit
Tue Apr 14, 2020 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investor says Stock Market Gains will only be 2% a year next 20 years
Replies: 110
Views: 10063

Re: Investor says Stock Market Gains will only be 2% a year next 20 years

We can want and demand greater real returns all day long, but that isn't going to make it happen starting from where we are now: if investors show their demand for higher returns by selling large amounts of equities and driving prices way down, that only helps returns starting from somewhere near th...
by cheezit
Tue Apr 14, 2020 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investor says Stock Market Gains will only be 2% a year next 20 years
Replies: 110
Views: 10063

Re: Investor says Stock Market Gains will only be 2% a year next 20 years

Is 2% real for stocks the worst case scenario over the next 20 years? Or is there a possibility that it could be even worse than that? 0% real for 15 years has happened in the domestic stock market before, hasn't it? And the Nikkei has at least one 30-year period with -0.6% annualized real returns ...
by cheezit
Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on "Priced In" Argument
Replies: 36
Views: 2411

Re: Thoughts on "Priced In" Argument

I have just read on Reddit perhaps the most clear brief explanation on what "priced in" means / implies. It’s basically the Efficient Market Hypothesis in economics. The idea is that publicly available information and expectations are already built in because people who have that information are tr...
by cheezit
Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help for Landlords in the Stimulus Bills?
Replies: 198
Views: 13579

Re: Help for Landlords in the Stimulus Bills?

I wonder how WanderingDoc is doing right now, and whether he has modified his "real estate pays you in FIVE WAYS" seminar.
by cheezit
Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help for Landlords in the Stimulus Bills?
Replies: 198
Views: 13579

Re: Help for Landlords in the Stimulus Bills?

The fact that an act of landlord generosity elicits such disbelief and accusations of ulterior motives is disappointing to say the least. Two things to note: 1) at least folks here aren't openly and shamelessly discussing ways to steal security deposits from tenants (and the inability of tenants to...
by cheezit
Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fighting Inflation? [Safest investment for a time like this]
Replies: 30
Views: 1845

Re: Fighting Inflation?

As others have said, the quasi-shutdown of non-vital industries is most likely to cause deflation that is larger in magnitude than the inflationary effect of helicopter money.
by cheezit
Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VERY disappointed in Vanguard's ETHICS!!!
Replies: 27
Views: 2330

Re: VERY disappointed in Vanguard's ETHICS!!!

FYI, no mutual fund orders placed after 3:00 are guaranteed to go through same-day in any case.
by cheezit
Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Wouldn't Day Trading do well in this environment?
Replies: 47
Views: 3106

Re: Wouldn't Day Trading do well in this environment?

One of my coworkers day trades and swing trades, mostly with options. His system is mostly TA-based, with some gut-feeling FA mixed in.

Based on the conversations we've had, he's losing money much faster than normal in this environment.
by cheezit
Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is around $6k... why is nobody talking about this?
Replies: 104
Views: 8575

Re: Bitcoin is around $6k... why is nobody talking about this?

It's a safe haven because it's algorithmically controlled. That means the process of coin mining is insulated from anything in this world (as long as the algo doesnt get cracked). Enough of the global hashrate is in China that Xi Jinping doesn't need to crack the crypto - he can dial up a 51% attac...
by cheezit
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds falling?
Replies: 236
Views: 5785

Re: Total Bond Market Down >4%

BND snapped up about 2% at the open today. Maybe the 'real' value of its holdings was somewhere between NAV and market price.
by cheezit
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is around $6k... why is nobody talking about this?
Replies: 104
Views: 8575

Re: Bitcoin is around $6k... why is nobody talking about this?

beastykato wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:09 am
It's down no more than the rest of the markets are though. Seems to be in line with everything else.
What? It's down twice as much as as equity markets over the last month.
by cheezit
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is around $6k... why is nobody talking about this?
Replies: 104
Views: 8575

Re: Bitcoin is around $6k... why is nobody talking about this?

Over the last month, the S&P500 is down 27% (ignoring dividends) and BTC is down 54%. Over the same period, gold is down 1% and long treasurys are up 9% (ignoring coupon payments). Bitcoin doesn't look like the new safe haven asset to me.
by cheezit
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Down >4%
Replies: 49
Views: 8992

Re: My BND fell down and can't get up -- what's with safe bond returns?

There's another thread about BND - likely has to do with its corporate bond holdings. I thought that at first, but BND is down substantially more on the day than either treasurys of similar duration (VGIT) or corporates of similar duration (VCIT). Does BND/VBMAX hold a bunch of munis? VTEB was down...
by cheezit
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 5392
Views: 484551

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Long treasurys shot up 5% in the last hour (and thus TMF went up by ~15%). Intraday volatility obviously way up the last week or two, and usually the net intraday movement has been in the opposite direction of the delta between the previous day's close and the current day's open. Must be exciting ti...
by cheezit
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International is in meltdown
Replies: 308
Views: 22459

Re: International is in meltdown

veggivet wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:45 am
Just curious, when do you re-assess your plan if it's only cost you money for, say 10, 15, or 20 years?
VBMFX has trailed VTSMX for longer periods. Does that make bonds a bad idea?
by cheezit
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is EDV down while TLT up today?
Replies: 5
Views: 319

Re: Why is EDV down while TLT up today?

The TLT/VGLT difference at this moment is even weirder, given that they own the same Treasurys and the durations are very nearly the same (18.9 and 18.4):

TLT => +1.45
VGLT => -0.58

I'm wondering whether one is trading at a substantial premium or discount to NAV at the moment.
by cheezit
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Death of Brick and Mortar, Malls etc.
Replies: 12
Views: 952

Re: Death of Brick and Mortar, Malls etc.

Wasn't sure what forum category to put this in. Could be considered a consumer issue, but also might effect investing. Anyway, I wonder if the corona virus will serve as the final death blow for large malls and some of the big anchor stores often found in malls like JC Penny and Macy's. (Sears is a...
by cheezit
Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this the end of risk parity?
Replies: 60
Views: 4777

Re: Is this the end of risk parity?

Neither savings accounts nor money market funds can 'defy gravity' for too long - their yields will follow the yields of T-bills without too much of a lag. So unless T-bill yields go up from ~0.5% in a hurry, those savings account yields will go down to meet them. Likewise for CDs and T-bills/T-not...
by cheezit
Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Portfolio for coronavirus times
Replies: 14
Views: 1375

Re: Best Portfolio for coronavirus times

What is the best portfolio for dealing with these uncertain times, which I think will last for at least a few more months? My goal is the preservation of capital and my current portfolio is the one devised by Azanon: 20% Vanguard Mid-Cap Value ETF (VOE) 10% Market Vectors Emerging Mkts Local ETF (E...
by cheezit
Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 Credit Suisse Global Investments Returns Yearbook is out
Replies: 10
Views: 768

Re: 2020 Credit Suisse Global Investments Returns Yearbook is out

Using PV, I see a 6.30% nominal CAGR for VTSMX from Jan 2000 through Dec 2019. Using the BLS CPI inflation calculator , I see $10,000 turned into $15,282.64 over the same period, for a compound annual inflation rate of 2.14% for the period (1.528264 ^ 0.05 = 1.021433). That gives about 4.15% real, q...
by cheezit
Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this the end of risk parity?
Replies: 60
Views: 4777

Re: Is this the end of risk parity?

Neither savings accounts nor money market funds can 'defy gravity' for too long - their yields will follow the yields of T-bills without too much of a lag. So unless T-bill yields go up from ~0.5% in a hurry, those savings account yields will go down to meet them. Likewise for CDs and T-bills/T-not...
by cheezit
Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this the end of risk parity?
Replies: 60
Views: 4777

Re: Is this the end of risk parity?

Neither savings accounts nor money market funds can 'defy gravity' for too long - their yields will follow the yields of T-bills without too much of a lag. So unless T-bill yields go up from ~0.5% in a hurry, those savings account yields will go down to meet them. Likewise for CDs and T-bills/T-note...