Search found 650 matches

by andrew99999
Tue May 19, 2020 10:01 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: My higher risk portfolio: seeking advice
Replies: 8
Views: 702

Re: My higher risk portfolio: seeking advice

So after reading all the replies, and taking on what everyone says would restructuring as follows be better: 0.35 VISM ETF international small and mid caps 0.35 VGS ETF international shares 0.1 VGE ETF Emerging markets 0.2 VAS Australian Shares (To reduce currency risk) Still don't want to be in bo...
by andrew99999
Mon May 18, 2020 11:17 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: What is the theory behind setting equity allocation to Global Cap Weight?
Replies: 9
Views: 567

Re: What is the theory behind setting equity allocation to Global Cap Weight?

I tend to agree with OP. There's a reason we rebalance as our equities boom over a decade long bull run - to reduce the risk of having more equity risk than suits our equity-risk profile. By the same token, I it's reasonable to have a maximum single country weighting - to reduce the risk of having m...
by andrew99999
Sun May 17, 2020 2:42 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Thailand] Advice needed on my investment plan
Replies: 24
Views: 1272

Re: [Thailand] Advice needed on my investment plan

Historical average returns have been 6% over inflation. Over 40 years 500,000 baht would turn into With 0.10% management 500000 * ((1.059)^40) = 4,952,316 With 0.90% management 500000 * ((1.051)^40) = 3,656,610 You've lost 25% of your end balance. 0.90% is madness - although I don't know if there ar...
by andrew99999
Sat May 16, 2020 10:50 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Thailand] Advice needed on my investment plan
Replies: 24
Views: 1272

Re: [Thailand] Advice needed on my investment plan

Let's just hope that history doesn't repeat itself with the Chinese government just taking everything you own in the Chinese stock market like they did in 1949.
by andrew99999
Sat May 16, 2020 2:33 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Thailand] Advice needed on my investment plan
Replies: 24
Views: 1272

Re: [Thailand] Advice needed on my investment plan

China refuses to allow independent audits for their companies. I hold 0 in China but the market weight is arround 5%. You are heavily overweighted there with a lot of fraud and accounting risk. I dont see any Pacific or ASEAN in your portfolio, I'd imagine you may want some degree of home stocks to...
by andrew99999
Tue May 12, 2020 7:13 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Aussie investor trying to choose a Vanguard RMF
Replies: 2
Views: 186

Re: Aussie investor trying to choose a Vanguard RMF

On which vehicle to use - Vanguard offers a few versions of their funds ETF - purchase through broker, and brokers have min cost so generally should save up min 3-5k for each purchase - as above, can't really invest small amounts more regularly (without prohibitive cost) - lowest price of the 3 - mo...
by andrew99999
Mon May 11, 2020 7:29 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Thailand] Advice needed on my investment plan
Replies: 24
Views: 1272

Re: [Thailand] Advice needed on my investment plan

Are you suggesting reducing the size of my equities in Hong Kong & China to the minimum because of the political uncertainty ? What do you think if I rebalance to 60% US(S&P500), 25% EU(STOXX Europe 600), 10% JP(Nikkei 225) and 5% CHINA(CSI 300) ? This is probably the best I can do for now to repli...
by andrew99999
Mon May 11, 2020 9:51 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Thailand] Advice needed on my investment plan
Replies: 24
Views: 1272

Re: [Thailand] Advice needed on my investment plan

Welcome to the forum. Great working starting at your age. I don't understand how you came up with 15% for China. Going by cap weighting, it's around 3.3% of the world by market cap. I'm going to guess that you're putting so much into Singapore due to the currency stability between THB and SGD from a...
by andrew99999
Sun May 10, 2020 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn't everybody replace SP500 with NTSX?
Replies: 70
Views: 6867

Re: Why doesn't everybody replace SP500 with NTSX?

Due to 6x leverage, you can think 10% of NTSX as a 40y duration bond. So 1% increase in interest rates would result in 40% loss of value of the 10% of the fund. Ouch. If this fund was 70% of your portfolio representing the risky allocation, then the leveraged bond portion would be 7% of your portfo...
by andrew99999
Thu May 07, 2020 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bond rule of thumb better than "age in bonds"
Replies: 152
Views: 10349

Re: A bond rule of thumb better than "age in bonds"

For those who prefer to think in terms of wealth, rather than age, there's a roughly equivalent wealth-based rule of thumb. Compute your expected retirement withdrawals (in current dollars) as a multiple of your current retirement savings: this is (in percentage terms) your bond allocation. So, for...
by andrew99999
Thu May 07, 2020 8:40 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Use windfall to pay off mortgage ASAP or invest to cover?
Replies: 9
Views: 1011

Re: Use windfall to pay off mortgage ASAP or invest to cover?

If by stocks you mean your company stock, then I'd want to get it out of there because such a high risk with so much money on the line doesn't seem sensible to me. If by stocks you mean globally diversified stocks, then - Stocks are riskier than property and consequently provide a higher expected re...
by andrew99999
Wed May 06, 2020 7:37 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Cash or bonds? ...until the stock market settles down
Replies: 23
Views: 2092

Re: Cash or bonds? ...until the stock market settles down

Bob could only have been an American. Europeans who invested in the 2000 market peak are still below the high water mark in some countries. Is that the price index or the accumulation index? The price index is worthless. It’s really difficult to find historical data for the accumulation index. That...
by andrew99999
Tue May 05, 2020 9:42 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Cash or bonds? ...until the stock market settles down
Replies: 23
Views: 2092

Re: Cash or bonds? ...until the stock market settles down

Tellurius wrote:
Tue May 05, 2020 11:40 am
Bob could only have been an American.

Europeans who invested in the 2000 market peak are still below the high water mark in some countries.
Is that the price index or the accumulation index? The price index is worthless.
by andrew99999
Tue May 05, 2020 5:54 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: International diversify but not many low cost foreign index fund available in Thailand. Any suggestion please.
Replies: 8
Views: 1085

Re: International diversify but not many low cost foreign index fund available in Thailand. Any suggestion please.

InvestInPasta wrote:
Tue May 05, 2020 5:21 am
Hello, can I ask you at what InteractiveBrokers branch is located your account?
I use IB LLC (the US company).
Although Australian residents are required to use only the Australian arm of the company.
by andrew99999
Mon May 04, 2020 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if the market is 100% passive?
Replies: 27
Views: 2056

Re: What if the market is 100% passive?

This question has been asked here many times. The consensus reply seems to be that it's not something to worry about. It's not so much that it's the consensus, but that the idea itself is ridiculous. As a higher and higher proportion of people move to index funds, there is less analysis of companie...
by andrew99999
Sun May 03, 2020 4:35 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Non-US] Would adding US treasuries give a diversification benefit?
Replies: 14
Views: 1284

Re: [Non-US] Would adding US treasuries give a diversification benefit?

Disclaimer: I'm majority unhedged global bonds (AGGG) since I don't know where I will retire, plus a sizable chunk in GBP-hedged since I have roots there. So I'm sort of applying this untested theory anyway Exactly my situation too, but still wondering if it has a use for those not in this situation.
by andrew99999
Sat May 02, 2020 10:56 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Non-US] Would adding US treasuries give a diversification benefit?
Replies: 14
Views: 1284

Re: [Non-US] Would adding US treasuries give a diversification benefit?

Some thoughts... I think it is long well established that a fixed income allocation of your portfolio looked at in isolation should be about low volatility, high diversification (in itself) and low cost. This leads to the standard recommendation of something like a global high credit rated fixed in...
by andrew99999
Sat May 02, 2020 10:49 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Non-US] Would adding US treasuries give a diversification benefit?
Replies: 14
Views: 1284

Re: [Non-US] Would adding US treasuries give a diversification benefit?

OTOH, I recall long dated US Treasuries to be a perfect complement to the AUD over the past 15 years. Hard to say what will happen in the future and I dropped any additional research on the subject and just opted to globally diversify my bond holdings unhedged. As far as I can tell across countries...
by andrew99999
Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:53 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: 100% stocks VS Rebalancing
Replies: 13
Views: 1351

Re: 100% stocks VS Rebalancing

I am a little bit confused, someone posted in a thread a link to a great article on rebalancing your portfolio and what the best way to do it is. But this makes me wonder why I was advised to maybe go 100% stocks since I mentioned I do not need the invested money in any way possible in the next 20 ...
by andrew99999
Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:01 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Non-US] Would adding US treasuries give a diversification benefit?
Replies: 14
Views: 1284

Re: [Non-US] Would adding US treasuries give a diversification benefit?

Monevator just did an article on this exact topic.
Do US Treasury bonds protect UK investors better than gilts?

I'd love to hear any thoughts from people on here.
by andrew99999
Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:17 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Any downsides to these two Bond ETFs?
Replies: 3
Views: 369

Re: Any downsides to these two Bond ETFs?

Credit quality: 46% "A", 23% "AA", 24% "BBB" - pretty solidly investment grade Credit quality: 44% "A", 11% "AA", 37% "BBB" - pretty solidly investment grade Solidly investment grade yes, but solidly at the bottum end of investment grade. A third that's one grade off complete garbage. With bonds, e...
by andrew99999
Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:09 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: (Australia) VDHG etf vs fund tax efficiency
Replies: 4
Views: 379

Re: (Australia) VDHG etf vs fund tax efficiency

While VDHG is an ETF itself, it contains 7 managed funds within it, so from a tax perspective, it's going to be more tax efficient than the managed fund version of VDHG but less tax efficient than holding the 7 ETF's yourself.
by andrew99999
Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone use global cap weight plus a set domestic tilt for equities?
Replies: 64
Views: 2425

Re: Does anyone use global cap weight plus a set domestic tilt for equities?

siamond mentions exactly that in his "investing in the world" series.
definitely worth a read.
by andrew99999
Sun Apr 19, 2020 6:58 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: (Australia) VDHG etf vs fund tax efficiency
Replies: 4
Views: 379

Re: (Australia) VDHG etf vs fund tax efficiency

Yes you're right and there are 2 levels of this. Firstly VDHG the ETF vs the managed fund. Secondly, the individual funds within both the ETF and the managed fund are all managed funds. So the all-in-one managed fund contains all 7 managed funds in there. Then the ETF contains all 7 managed funds in...
by andrew99999
Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:33 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Australian non-tax resident - taxes and ETF investing
Replies: 7
Views: 401

Re: Australian non-tax resident - taxes and ETF investing

20% Australian index 20% Global index AUD-hedged 60% Global index What specific ETF's would be recommended? 20% Australian Index (would this be something like VAS?) 20% Global index AUD-hedged (not sure what ETF I'd use here) 60% Global index (Is VWRA suitable?) VAS or IOZ or A200 (all the same) VG...
by andrew99999
Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:29 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Australian non-tax resident - taxes and ETF investing
Replies: 7
Views: 401

Re: Australian non-tax resident - taxes and ETF investing

Welcome to the forum. For the non-Aussies, you need to point out what VDHG is. I suggest you edit your post to something like VDHG. This is an all-in-one fund with 90/10 stocks/bonds, and within stocks: 40% Australian index 18% Global index AUD-hedged 42% Global index I think if you're highly likely...
by andrew99999
Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:12 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Italy / EU] How to select bonds to increase risk parity on an All Weather (Ray Dalio)'s inspired portfolio
Replies: 11
Views: 749

Re: [Italy / EU] How to select bonds to increase risk parity on an All Weather (Ray Dalio)'s inspired portfolio

Good question! Not speaking for Ray Dalio... but there is the general idea that although long term USD bonds are more volatile in themselves, when they are combined with equities, long term bonds diversify much better than other bonds. In others words equities+LT US treasuries becomes a much more s...
by andrew99999
Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:32 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [NL] iShares IWDA + EMIM vs Vanguard VWRL ?
Replies: 7
Views: 682

Re: [NL] iShares IWDA + EMIM vs Vanguard VWRL ?

The 15% tax on underlying US companies cannot be avoided unless you simply don't invest in US companies. 15% tax on underlying non-US companies you would lose only if the fund itself is US domiciled or where the fund holds another fund within it which is US domiciled. If the fund is not US domiciled...
by andrew99999
Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value as bubble protection (Ben Felix video)
Replies: 13
Views: 724

Re: Value as bubble protection (Ben Felix video)

Value stocks are literally companies who have something risky inherent in them and the market is pricing in that risk by only being willing to pay less for them. During market crashes, they're often the first ones sold as people look for quality companies that are more likely to survive, and value s...
by andrew99999
Thu Apr 02, 2020 9:28 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Help creating allocation from scratch to invest a lump sum?
Replies: 11
Views: 732

Re: Help creating allocation from scratch to invest a lump sum?

To put it bluntly, you have behavioural issues sticking with stocks, yet you have made active bets on the geography and on value factor. It's good that you've decided to buy low instead of high with the crowd, but the problem is that the market can remain irrational longer than you can tolerate it. ...
by andrew99999
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:32 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Australia - Seeking Asset Allocation Advice
Replies: 9
Views: 561

Re: Australia - Seeking Asset Allocation Advice

Bump for the forum regulars. OP emailed me elsewhere where I gave my thoughts and also suggested posting on here to get thoughts from the very knowledgeable people here. Don't let the fund names deter you from offering your thoughts. OP refers to 3 tickers of Vanguard all-in-one funds (with AA of ea...
by andrew99999
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:26 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Over rebalancing
Replies: 25
Views: 1888

Re: Over rebalancing

galeno wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:04 am
With 80% stocks you dont need a bond fund.
What did you mean by this? What do you use for your other 20%?
by andrew99999
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:13 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: (Australia) Coronovirus Centrelink claim
Replies: 3
Views: 337

Re: (Australia) Coronovirus Centrelink claim

I'd check out reddit and if you can't find it there already, make a thread to ask. They can be a pack of animals at times, but they do tend to have up-to-date info there.
https://www.reddit.com/r/AusFinance/
https://www.reddit.com/r/fiaustralia/
by andrew99999
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:49 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Australia VTS Vs IHVV
Replies: 3
Views: 301

Re: Australia VTS Vs IHWL

Worth mentioning what the tickers are for non-Aussies on here. VTS = Total US market IHVV = AUD-hedged S&P500 My thoughts on hedging here https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=309318 Basically I think that Australia's stable political system will result in the currency recovering (ev...
by andrew99999
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:56 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Comparing investment grade bond funds (EUR)
Replies: 6
Views: 318

Re: Comparing investment grade bond funds (EUR)

With corporate debt yields having risen as of lately, ... And why have they risen? Could it be because of the sharp increased in numbers of businesses that are going to default and the higher yield is needed to make up for the losses that are likely to be incurred? There's no free lunch here. You a...
by andrew99999
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:50 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Selling Unhedged holdings and buy Unhedged?
Replies: 3
Views: 260

Re: Selling Unhedged holdings and buy Unhedged?

In that case I'd leave it alone. As the AUD moves in either direction, half your assets will move one direction and the other in the other direction, so it should mostly cancel out. Rebalancing may be needed but depends on the tax consequences which I'm of no help with. I'd still rebalance if your b...
by andrew99999
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Selling Unhedged holdings and buy Unhedged?
Replies: 3
Views: 260

Re: Selling Unhedged holdings and buy Unhedged?

I have some Vanguard Total U.S stock market (VTS), Vanguard world ex U.S (VEU) and total world hedged to Australian currency (VGAD). As the USD has increased to the AUD the Unhedged etf's have not fallen as much as much as VGAD, I am considering selling some and buying the Unhedged as the AUD is cu...
by andrew99999
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:22 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: How will this market effect dividends?
Replies: 22
Views: 2115

Re: How will this market effect dividends?

Normally around this time of the year Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF (VWRD) declares dividends. However considering the current situation, what can I reasonably expect? Historically during the 2008 crisis when stocks crashed more than 50% dividends ‘only’ dropped 25%. During some other crashes d...
by andrew99999
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:02 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Australian dividend investor - "panic selling" or rational correction to an inappropriate asset allocation?
Replies: 24
Views: 1901

Re: Australian dividend investor - "panic selling" or rational correction to an inappropriate asset allocation?

>along with my own strong preference for index investing, does mean it's frustrating when the advisor is dismissive of the overall portfolio value and insists only the dividends matter. Dividend investing is quite popular in Australia, due to the tax rebate on dividends (the 'franking credit'). Sin...
by andrew99999
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:49 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Australia] Temporary Resident seeking portfolio advice
Replies: 2
Views: 162

Re: [Australia] Temporary Resident seeking portfolio advice

Welcome to the forum. If you will be moving back to India, what's the point of Australian stocks IOZ)? It is not any different to investing in German stocks in that overweighting neither Australian stocks nor German makes sense for someone retiring to India. Is there any reason on the Indian side th...
by andrew99999
Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:26 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Australian dividend investor - "panic selling" or rational correction to an inappropriate asset allocation?
Replies: 24
Views: 1901

Re: Australian dividend investor - "panic selling" or rational correction to an inappropriate asset allocation?

I can't seem to figure out any information about what, if anyone, one can invest in in Australia that's somewhere "between" cash on the one hand and shares on the other. I asked her if she could find out from her advisor so we'll see. There's lots of things between stocks and cash. At the bottum is...
by andrew99999
Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:42 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Australian dividend investor - "panic selling" or rational correction to an inappropriate asset allocation?
Replies: 24
Views: 1901

Re: Australian dividend investor - "panic selling" or rational correction to an inappropriate asset allocation?

What a mess. You're absolutely right that 70% in stocks at her age is madness! The problem is that the market has already dropped probably around 30%. There's no point in trying to avoid a 40% drop because all she would be doing is saving 10% to miss the 40% recovery (net position down 30% permanent...
by andrew99999
Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:06 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Your thoughts on my planned portfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 407

Re: Your thoughts on my planned portfolio

Portfolio looks good. There's not consensus on REITs. Larry Swedroe has written that it has been shown to simply be a single sector representation of a combination of small, value, and credit risks, and that if you have access to those already you can forgo the idiosyncratic sector risk of being onl...
by andrew99999
Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:04 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Market crash. Should I put it all in at once or dollar cost average???
Replies: 10
Views: 1419

Re: Market crash. Should I put it all in at once or dollar cost average???

Generally you should set a ratio of stocks to bonds that you are comfortable holding even in a 50% fall in stocks and dump it in, but if you do DCA then I prefer a modified version of it. The main problems with dollar cost averaging are: 1. Leaving the yet-to-be invested portion in cash earns nothin...
by andrew99999
Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:07 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Replicate the global equity market using LSE-listed ETFs
Replies: 3
Views: 382

Re: Replicate the global equity market using LSE-listed ETFs

Yes correct.
For developed vs emerging, I just look at VT which shows emerging at 10%.
For MSCI, they define large/mid/small, as 70/15/15
So together you get 76.5/13.5/10 or you can round it out to 75/15/10 for simplicity.
by andrew99999
Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:51 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Is being in a world index fund true diversification?
Replies: 79
Views: 4873

Re: Is being in a world index fund true diversification?

If you are getting concenrned about high weightage of USA in World Indexes the story has been the same since 1970:https://www.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGGEB.pdf (See Slide 2) No other country comes close to USA dominance. My home country is a rounding error in the World Index despite it having 3-4X Popula...
by andrew99999
Fri Mar 06, 2020 8:54 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Is being in a world index fund true diversification?
Replies: 79
Views: 4873

Re: Is being in a world index fund true diversification?

I agree, but the "what are we trying to really diversify" could use clarity. When it comes to emerging markets, they're a little diversified, but not hugely, from developed markets. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=VTI%2C+VEA%2C+VWO&timePeriod=2&tradingDays=60&mont...
by andrew99999
Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:13 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Is being in a world index fund true diversification?
Replies: 79
Views: 4873

Re: Is being in a world index fund true diversification?

OP, I invest globally with the qualification of capping my exposure to any individual country's market to 40%. I am happy with that compromise. Why 40%? As opposed to, say, 25% or 30%? or 10%? Is your argument that because there is no specific reason to choose 40% that the default should be cap wei...
by andrew99999
Fri Mar 06, 2020 8:47 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Is being in a world index fund true diversification?
Replies: 79
Views: 4873

Re: Is being in a world index fund true diversification?

OP, I invest globally with the qualification of capping my exposure to any individual country's market to 40%. I am happy with that compromise. I actually think this seems like a sensible rule. I also don't think it is a statement that the market is "wrong" either, just that you are fulfilling a re...