Bogleheads.org

SouthernFIRE

I am not a market timer. But I also have no interest in owning bonds at yields that effectively guarantee a negative real return. that word, i do not think it means what you think it means. What does market timing mean to you? I will hold my no-bond allocation for years. I suppose if your definitio...

SouthernFIRE

I am not a market timer. But I also have no interest in owning bonds at yields that effectively guarantee a negative real return. that word, i do not think it means what you think it means. What does market timing mean to you? I will hold my no-bond allocation for years. I suppose if your definitio...

SouthernFIRE

The current situation with bonds is an interesting case study on boglehead principals. Do you adjust strategy based on rock bottom yields and increasing inflation expectations or stay the course with current allocation? I am not a market timer. But I also have no interest in owning bonds at yields t...

SouthernFIRE

Hit the sell button or BTC equivalent.

SouthernFIRE

I realize this is an old thread but wanted to post about my experience with Worthy. I started investing in July 2019 as an alternative to escrowing my mortgage. Instead of sending it to the mortgage company, I sent it to Worthy. I was impressed with the 5% that you can see on a daily basis. Withdra...

SouthernFIRE

Thanks, F Street. I am learning myself. I intend to go solo as a LLC IF I end up following through. I am unsure of the down payment as I have no idea what the bank is going to ask me to put down as a minimum (this will determine the reserves I would guess) and I have no idea about the interest rate...

SouthernFIRE

I own some NNN properties and really like them. But it is absolutely buyer beware and the property you are looking at as an example is (almost certainly) a dog. The advantage with NNN is you can get 3-5% spread over bond yields with built in inflation protection (rent increases) and a long term leas...

SouthernFIRE

This is a very good question. People keep parroting Umbrella and I don't think that's the solution OP is looking for. High-value properties are mostly held by Trusts, I wonder why is that? Rich people are very well insured, yet ownership of their RE assets is by a trust. Hope somebody can provide a...

SouthernFIRE

You’ve gotten good advice. The most likely significant liability is some type of personal injury/negligence lawsuit (usually auto related). 99.9% of these cases are resolved within the insurance policy limits. The ones that aren’t involve under insurance and significant personal assets. So, make sur...

SouthernFIRE

Instead of selling shares in taxable to fund it, turn off dividend reinvestment and use the cash dividends to offset the Roth contributions. On 1.7 million even a ~1% dividend yield on which you are already paying taxes anyway can almost entirely fill the 19.5k contribution limit. This is smart adv...

SouthernFIRE

I personally think you and CnC got lucky. I think Bogle got lucky. Will you be this lucky next time? If anyone believes that market timing can only be successful over the long-term via luck, then they certainly shouldn't do it. It is quite difficult to distinguish between luck and skill with indivi...

SouthernFIRE

Yes. S-Corp election is a big one. I do a SEP as well. There are lots of business expenses to optimize which I haven’t really done. Use of company car; bonus accelerated depreciation on vehicle over certain weight limit; etc.

SouthernFIRE

Might work, might not, but this is a terrible strategy. Professionals have been calling a bottom in value for years. One thing is certain. If the stocks that have done well over the past 5-10 years, ie growth/tech, and the stocks that have underperformed continue to do so, ie value, your portfolio w...

SouthernFIRE

Frogs not jumping out of slowly heated water is a myth. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boiling_frog I see no reason to trust this guy's ability to predict a 50% drop any more than his ability to understand frogs. Acting on warnings of this type does not have a great history. The Fed's policies and t...

SouthernFIRE

The core of my portfolio is index funds with a Tech/QQQ tilt. I have commercial real estate instead of bonds. Pretty boring but not pure 3-fund.

SouthernFIRE

Pass. Cap rate too low. Not a great metric for duplex but still suggests cash flow isn’t there.

SouthernFIRE

What day of the week will you be traveling? If a weekday, you DO NOT want to drive through Atlanta between 4pm and 7pm. Wahahaha. Maybe 10 years ago. Make that 2:30pm and 7:30. Or better yet....ever! 🤣 Right. It looks like we'll start our trip later than I anticipated. You're right. We don't want t...

SouthernFIRE

Soon2BXProgrammer wrote: ↑Sun Jan 03, 2021 7:43 pm
Tingting1013 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 03, 2021 7:41 pm Heart attacks while mowing lawns / shoveling snow are common
if mowing lawns is more vigorous then the other activities i do with my spouse, i'm in trouble.

best comment of the thread.

SouthernFIRE

Wake around 7am. 2 cups of black coffee. Walk and feed the dog. If it’s winter, check the snow temps and decide if I need to rewax my xc skis, then go skiing for an hour or two. If it’s summer, hop on the mountain bike before it gets too warm (which in my book is anything above 75degrees F). Then s...

SouthernFIRE

I drive a 2014 Lexus ES350. Favorite car I’ve ever owned but I’m not a huge car guy. Bought it used from my brother in law at a good price (or I probably wouldn’t have purchased brand name).

SouthernFIRE

This discussion belongs to some other blog IMHO. This one is about retirement based on passive investment approach. Raiding pension funds to open a small business after 40 is not what John Bogle would have been advocating. Even if one considered this as a sort of investment, then it’s extremely hig...

SouthernFIRE

It's great your comp is going up to 200k, that should give you some firepower to ramp up savings.. but there is no sugar coating it the rental property #s are not good. I'd sell and invest the equity and/or use to purchase a primary to live in. To be more specific, about 1.5% cash on cash return. A...

SouthernFIRE

This discussion belongs to some other blog IMHO. This one is about retirement based on passive investment approach. Raiding pension funds to open a small business after 40 is not what John Bogle would have been advocating. Even if one considered this as a sort of investment, then it’s extremely hig...

SouthernFIRE

I would like to see an international tech fund. Went looking the other day in fact. No dice.

SouthernFIRE

It's great your comp is going up to 200k, that should give you some firepower to ramp up savings.. but there is no sugar coating it the rental property #s are not good. I'd sell and invest the equity and/or use to purchase a primary to live in. To be more specific, about 1.5% cash on cash return. A...

SouthernFIRE

I take this approach (however I am quite underweight int’l). I am young enough to bear the higher risk of VSS. We’ll see how it works out.

SouthernFIRE

Enjoyed the post. From the replies, it is apparent most Bogleheads lack the entrepreneurial gene. I started a small professional services business a few years ago with a couple partners. Best decision I ever made. No face time requirements, flexible schedule, and income has increased by many multipl...

SouthernFIRE

My investable assets are about 60% stocks / 40% commercial real estate. I like the tax benefits and cash flow of CRE and am not interested in bonds at sub 1% yield. While the time to manage is frequently brought up, I have NNN properties with credit tenants so spend about 30 secs a month processing ...

SouthernFIRE

I have moved in the direction you are contemplating. The most under appreciated aspect of commercial real estate under the current tax code is bonus depreciation. You will get typically hundreds of thousands of dollars in write offs in year one with a cost segregation study, assuming a mid seven fig...

SouthernFIRE

The average doctor makes more. The ceiling is higher with law and it’s not close. Average profits per partner at AmLaw 100 was $2mil in 2019. I was curious how average profit per partner translates into compensation for the partner. I found this interesting survey: https://law.yale.edu/sites/defaul...

SouthernFIRE

So many angry people in this thread.... I've had many clients who make well north of $300k a year and they have varied backgrounds and fields. Doctors (usually specialized), some Law Partners (although law seems to be feast or famine - some attorneys are crushing it, others are making less than my ...

SouthernFIRE

Probably not on GAAP basis since their stock based comp is so high. But the company’s financials look good and continue to improve with scale. If I read it correctly, they cover 85 % of their operating expenses with stock based compensation. They either have to start borrowing soon or dilute the sh...

SouthernFIRE

So many angry people in this thread.... I've had many clients who make well north of $300k a year and they have varied backgrounds and fields. Doctors (usually specialized), some Law Partners (although law seems to be feast or famine - some attorneys are crushing it, others are making less than my ...

SouthernFIRE

Probably not on GAAP basis since their stock based comp is so high. But the company’s financials look good and continue to improve with scale.

SouthernFIRE

Purchased shares in a couple of private, VC-backed companies. One went public this year and looks like a solid win (assuming the stock hangs in through lockup period). The others are 1-3 years away. How did you find the companies to invest in? I am intrigued by AngelList, where you can invest in a ...

SouthernFIRE

Purchased shares in a couple of private, VC-backed companies. One went public this year and looks like a solid win (assuming the stock hangs in through lockup period). The others are 1-3 years away.

SouthernFIRE

This depends on your state/city. A mid size real estate focused firm in your area should be just fine. There is undoubtedly at least one or two fitting this description.

SouthernFIRE

As with everything, there is no free lunch. There are higher current yields available with commercial real estate compared to corporate bonds. Well-located properties with credit tenants regularly trade at 5.5-6.5% yields in my area (large SE city). Personally, I think those yields look pretty good ...

SouthernFIRE

Things I would think about: - Do you have any short term losses to offset some of the STCG? - There has been talk about increasing the LTCG rate to be the same as ordinary income. That would be a ~12% tax hit for you. - If I were in your shoes, I would probably realize the LTCG given lower rate on t...

SouthernFIRE

You've touched on the options for disposing of illiquid shares in small closely-held company. Best bet is to negotiate the purchase of your shares by one of the other current shareholders. If the company's prospects going forward are reasonable, you should be able to find a buyer although they will...

SouthernFIRE

You've touched on the options for disposing of illiquid shares in small closely-held company. Best bet is to negotiate the purchase of your shares by one of the other current shareholders. If the company's prospects going forward are reasonable, you should be able to find a buyer although they will ...

SouthernFIRE

You’ve gotten some good advice. Given your financial position, you don’t really need to kill yourself at work. I would take a couple extra weeks of vacation a year and/or a couple month sabbatical. Then reevaluate. I’m in a roughly similar situation to you in terms of career, age, and net worth. Exp...

SouthernFIRE

I have relatives that live on Lake Nottely. Great area. Not cheap to live on the lake. Climate is good, about 5-10 degrees cooler than Atlanta. Slower pace, but lots of hiking. Blue Ridge downtown has seen lots of development. Good restaurants, shopping, etc. About 2 hours to Atlanta.

SouthernFIRE

This makes me sick for your friend. NNN properties frequently get marketed like no or low risk investments and its terribly misleading. I own some commercial properties and handle litigation of this type from time to time. There are no good options here from how you describe it. A lot depends on the...

SouthernFIRE

Better a trust company or bank than a law firm.

SouthernFIRE

Someone may have already mentioned but if you have the ability to pay cash then I would do so regardless of whether you intend to finance it or not. You will likely get a sizable discount on the purchase price with a cash offer (5-10%). That discount far outweighs any other considerations IMO. If yo...

SouthernFIRE

My original calculation is based on 4% annual appreciation. RE has gone up 7% in April: “Nationally, the median price for a home, excluding new construction, was about $287,000 in April, up more than 7 percent from a year earlier, the National Association of Realtors reported.” https://www.google.c...

SouthernFIRE

:D I always found knife-catching to be the easy part of market timing. I am also not sure why people fuss about that. The hard part is selling out while the bubble is still inflating. You can't fight the bubble and you can't pop it. That's the hard part. Co-sign. The last few months have driven this...

SouthernFIRE

Ah - interesting. I thought that if I had bought VTSAX, I couldn't sell or buy anything similar for 30 days before and after, without triggering a wash sale. That is the rule but if you sell all of your holdings in a particular fund, including shares purchased in last 30 days, then it is not a wash...

SouthernFIRE

NBER: US economy officially in recession. I thought that nisiprius said that they didn't make such announcements until after the recession was over. But there's no way that that's the case right now. But of course, the recession has been a foregone conclusion for months now. Based on the typical de...

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