Search found 124 matches

by HippoSir
Fri Sep 25, 2020 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2936
Views: 211735

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I agree with your concern about backtesting. The longest backtest that MSCI provides is for LRGF and INTF, they start in December of 1998. I wish they had longer backtests with 40+ years, it would give more credibility to their findings. I've read their methodology and I like the philosophy behind ...
by HippoSir
Fri Sep 25, 2020 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2936
Views: 211735

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Hey folks, I know I've asked stuff like this before but I'd like your advice again. I've tried my best to diversify with different factors like size, value, and profitability, and I'm always trying to analyze my funds to see if I made the right choice. This is where things get quite fuzzy and depen...
by HippoSir
Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2936
Views: 211735

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Disagree. There is risk that the process applied itself is wrong. I've seen a lot of posts from you in factor threads but I've always struggled to figure out what your specific argument is. I got some time now, let me see if I can explain. First, I was responding in between breaks, so I am not sure...
by HippoSir
Fri Sep 25, 2020 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2936
Views: 211735

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

To everyone obsessed with tilting. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0...
by HippoSir
Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2936
Views: 211735

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Disagree. There is risk that the process applied itself is wrong. I've seen a lot of posts from you in factor threads but I've always struggled to figure out what your specific argument is. Do you believe that factors do not explain returns? Do you believe that factors may explain returns, but won'...
by HippoSir
Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year
Replies: 93
Views: 4795

Re: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year

Also to be fair I believe this tool is only looking at current holdings, so a factor regression on returns is likely more meaningful. VFVA interestingly is about even with VFMF on TEV/EBIT, but has a huge improvement in B/P going from 46% to a whopping 88%. As a believer in TEV/EBIT (holder of QVAL...
by HippoSir
Tue Sep 22, 2020 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year
Replies: 93
Views: 4795

Re: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year

FYI with daily regression (not great but due to shorter life of VFMF it may be more representative) I am actually seeing the VFMF gets over 88% of the value exposure of VBR, so even closer than I noted above: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/factor-analysis?s=y®ressionType=1&symbols=VFMF%2CVB...
by HippoSir
Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year
Replies: 93
Views: 4795

Re: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year

I'd beware any investment vehicle that portents to be better and smarter than the market. I also suspect the fund manager is doing just fine too. On the contrary, Vanguard seems to do everything they can to avoid individuals investing in these funds. They don't even show up in the usual list of Van...
by HippoSir
Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year
Replies: 93
Views: 4795

Re: VFMF has had a bad year

I find: https://www.thinknewfound.com/style-dashboard a useful resource at times like these. You can see that size/value/quality have all been quite negative this year. VFMF targets all of these, and is more concentrated than many other multifactor funds, so it's not surprising it's doing worse. Tha...
by HippoSir
Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR still singing the same song
Replies: 114
Views: 8749

Re: AQR still singing the same song

Fun to see all the people who endlessly bash factor investing in this thread with the same tired arguments. Meanwhile, I'm happily plugging along with my AQR funds, which I have held since 2014. My entire IRA is AQR funds. QSMLX has outperformed every other noteworthy small cap value fund since its...
by HippoSir
Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio issues stark warning about US dollar’s future as global reserve currency
Replies: 42
Views: 3414

Re: Ray Dalio issues stark warning about US dollar’s future as global reserve currency

Just invest in a total world fund (VT is a great choice), and don't worry about it. Actively tilting towards one country or another seems a mistake.
by HippoSir
Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2936
Views: 211735

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I don't go out of my way to recommend funds, but this is one fund that is very impressive. I want them to come out with the International versions already! Very much agree with this, and I really want an International version to replace my iShares multifactor. One other thing I find quite attractiv...
by HippoSir
Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2936
Views: 211735

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Research Affiliates published an article on book value and composite measures of value. Book Value Is an Incomplete Measure of Firm Size https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/publications/articles/814-book-value-is-an-incomplete-measure-of-firm-size.html For their value metric the Avantis funds ...
by HippoSir
Sat Sep 05, 2020 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2936
Views: 211735

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Don’t have any strong ones but have kept my eye on it. Right now I’m getting large-value exposure via my 401k (VVIAX) so I don’t have space for it. I also prefer the transparency of AVUV/QVAL’s process; I trust Vanguard but wish the process was better outlined. It doesn't go into as much detail as ...
by HippoSir
Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone else not able to buy on Vanguard.com today?
Replies: 4
Views: 608

Re: Is anyone else not able to buy on Vanguard.com today?

Vanguard's IT infrastructure seems to constantly break and it has shown no sign of improving. Really disappointing and I'm starting to look at alternatives (mainly Schwab).
by HippoSir
Mon Aug 03, 2020 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Would Be Your US/Int Equity Split If You Lived Outside US?
Replies: 58
Views: 2603

Re: What Would Be Your US/Int Equity Split If You Lived Outside US?

Market weight. Don't look for the needle in the haystack, buy the whole haystack.
by HippoSir
Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)
Replies: 95
Views: 4677

Re: Lost duodecade in international (ASWX, VEU, CWI)

He bailed on international because of bad performance but then used the "simplicity" excuse. A lot of virtual high fives going on the anti-international under diversified two fund thread. I always find it weird that people claim to be passive investors then make active decisions like this. Just hol...
by HippoSir
Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2936
Views: 211735

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

acegolfer wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:25 pm Can you explain this theoretically? What's the EMH implication on international investing?
I can't speak for OP, but IMO if you deviate from world market weight you clearly do not believe in EMH.
by HippoSir
Mon Jul 20, 2020 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Convince me not to sell all my US equities to Cash temporarily
Replies: 135
Views: 11338

Re: Convince me not to sell all my US equities to Cash temporarily

I will never understand why people approach this kind of thing with "it's all or nothing!" thinking. If your allocation is beyond your risk tolerance, just adjust your allocation, maybe go to 60/40.
by HippoSir
Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2936
Views: 211735

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

AVUV: +4.53%

I wish I could say I thought this was going to continue, but it's nice to see green for one day at least! :greedy
by HippoSir
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 19467

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

This advantage seems to be increasing, and these companies are just gaining more power, wealth, and marketshare. Perhaps more importantly: the US as a nation is a world-leader in technology, and its advantage as a nation (specifically, of US tech hotspots like Silicon Valley) also seems to be only ...
by HippoSir
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 19467

Re: Will VXUS ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

Nobody knows, but the saying "Past performance is not indicative of future results" goes both ways.
by HippoSir
Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%
Replies: 120
Views: 11796

Re: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%

What is Vanguard's track record with predicting future returns? garbage they put out the same emerging/international outperform guidance back in 2018 and if you followed it, you got crushed. if this is 9% from current levels, great..... still down 33% from 2018 2018 was 2 years ago, they're project...
by HippoSir
Wed May 27, 2020 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2936
Views: 211735

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Forester wrote: Wed May 27, 2020 12:04 pm April 1st was the "value bottom".

I strongly advise people staying the course with written investment plans, to tear those plans up and panic buy IJS, VIOV, ZIG etc etc :sharebeer
When this all crashes tomorrow I'm blaming you. :D
by HippoSir
Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2936
Views: 211735

Re: [Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!]

oneleaf wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:19 pm Larry’s thoughts on value today...

https://twitter.com/larryswedroe/status ... 0494992387
His numbers are wrong. I don't know what happened to IJS but VIOV (same index) is down 12.60% which I suspect is actually correct.
by HippoSir
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. bonds in freefall
Replies: 82
Views: 11432

Re: U.S. bonds in freefall

keyfort wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:25 pm Not trying to sound hysterical, but if BND drops 5.5% on a day when VTI / VXUS drop about 10%, how is that the counterbalance to stocks?

What's really the point of BND?
Although much maligned on these forums, this is why alternative assets exist (market neutral/etc).
by HippoSir
Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is around $6k... why is nobody talking about this?
Replies: 104
Views: 8750

Re: Bitcoin is around $6k... why is nobody talking about this?

I don't own any bitcoin, but even I am surprised by how dramatically it failed as a hedge against a market downturn.

I think this destroys any left over illusions anyone had about bitcoin as a store of value or a currency.
by HippoSir
Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4012
Views: 309759

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I plan on staying disciplined and not timing the market, but if I had to guess I would say the economic effects are far from over and this is not anywhere CLOSE to priced in at current market levels, especially in the US.
by HippoSir
Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

surfstar wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:35 am Wow my "feeling" might be right - we could be down for the week. I'll start selling my newsletter next week. :P
You and OP should start providing financial advisory services. I'd be your first customer. :twisted: :sharebeer
by HippoSir
Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Your data are not available at this time. Please try again later.
Replies: 23
Views: 1394

Re: Vanguard: Your data are not available at this time. Please try again later.

Totally agree, this is simply unacceptable I will henceforth be withdrawing all of my comments from Bogleheads and transferring them to Morningstar. I don't pay a dime to use this forum and hence have no expectations. Even though Vanguard expense ratios are small, I give them a LOT of money and I e...
by HippoSir
Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Your data are not available at this time. Please try again later.
Replies: 23
Views: 1394

Re: Vanguard: Your data are not available at this time. Please try again later.

I've seen this on and off today too.

Very disappointed in Vanguard's IT infrastructure. Considering switching brokerages due to frequent issues like this.
by HippoSir
Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111078

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

OP is looking pretty smart right now! :twisted: :sharebeer
by HippoSir
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2936
Views: 211735

Re: [Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!]

Mean reversion has its work cut out for it! Most of the SCV ETFs I'm tracking are approaching bear market levels (down nearly 20% from their all time highs in 2018). Deep value ETFs are even worse, at over 30% down. I have a factor tilt and am lucky enough to have a long time horizon, so I'm just r...
by HippoSir
Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Factor ETFs 2 Year Birthday!
Replies: 44
Views: 3223

Re: Vanguard Factor ETFs 2 Year Birthday!

US SCV has smashed US TSM by every measure over that timeframe, including rolling returns of various durations. Even though I'm an admitted factor tilter, I didn't actually believe you, but you are correct: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2000&first...
by HippoSir
Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Factor ETFs 2 Year Birthday!
Replies: 44
Views: 3223

Re: Vanguard Factor ETFs 2 Year Birthday!

Great! So moral of the story is growth is/was the factor to be in, and when you omit one factor and favor others (active decision making) instead of holding it all, you end up trailing. Yes, factor products risk tracking error for a premium that may never show up. As Vanguard states prominently on ...
by HippoSir
Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Factor ETFs 2 Year Birthday!
Replies: 44
Views: 3223

Re: Vanguard Factor ETFs 2 Year Birthday!

Elysium wrote: Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:15 am 2017-2020
Total Market(VTI): 14.06%
Small Growth(VBK): 14.57%
Note that VBK is a growth fund:

Large Growth(VUG): 19.80%
Small Growth(VBK): 14.57%
by HippoSir
Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Factor ETFs 2 Year Birthday!
Replies: 44
Views: 3223

Re: Vanguard Factor ETFs 2 Year Birthday!

If each of them had had an even chance of outperforming total stock, the chance of all six of them underperforming would only be 1 in 64 or 1.6%. The problem with this argument is that all 6 of them share the same size weighting scheme. That being 1/3 small, 1/3 medium, 1/3 large, vs total stock wh...
by HippoSir
Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2936
Views: 211735

Re: [Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!]

theorist wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:31 pm According to M*, small value up 2.21% and large growth down .32% today! Maybe the start of mean reversion in the value vs growth comparison...(large growth also up 2.04% !)
We can dream. :P

RZV: +4.12%
AVUV: +2.70%
IJS: +2.26%

VTI: +0.98%
QQQ: +0.33%
VUG: +0.20%
by HippoSir
Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone know what's going on with RZV?
Replies: 11
Views: 1507

Re: Does anyone know what's going on with RZV?

RZV: Avg Market Cap 590 Mil Price/Earnings 9.12 Price/Book 0.60 Price/Cash Flow 1.83 :shock: That is amazing. For comparison, here's RSX (a Russia ETF): Price/Earnings 7.34 Price/Book 1.09 Price/Cash Flow 4.03 Deep small cap value is at truly dire valuations compared to the rest of the market. Eith...
by HippoSir
Tue Feb 04, 2020 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 257
Views: 47068

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

What exactly is Momentum (2-12)? ISCF comes up with the highest number on this metric. Looks like the Avantis funds have the highest Book/Price. That is 12 months minus 2 month momentum. Note you are comparing ISCF/AVDV (international funds) against US funds, which will more be driven by internatio...
by HippoSir
Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone know what's going on with RZV?
Replies: 11
Views: 1507

Re: Does anyone know what's going on with RZV?

I was curious so I looked up actual #s (from Morningstar): RZV: Avg Market Cap 672.76 Mil Price/Earnings 10.44 Price/Book 0.66 Price/Cash Flow 2.01 VIOV: Avg Market Cap 1.45 Bil Price/Earnings 14.35 Price/Book 1.22 Price/Cash Flow 4.66 The difference is actually even more significant than I thought....
by HippoSir
Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone know what's going on with RZV?
Replies: 11
Views: 1507

Re: Does anyone know what's going on with RZV?

RZV has much higher factor loadings than VIOV. Small value has been getting crushed recently, so RZV is correspondingly getting crushed worse than VIOV.
by HippoSir
Mon Feb 03, 2020 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value Premium - New FF paper
Replies: 264
Views: 15081

Re: The Value Premium - New FF paper

Right. I tilt to SCV for increased returns, but not risk-adjusted ones. Seems unlikely to arbitrage that away if you believe in an efficient market. This is where I'm at as well. I suspect factors may have had behavioral components in the past, but certainly not since discovery. Any remaining incre...
by HippoSir
Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 257
Views: 47068

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

Thanks. I'm ok with the factor exposure being a drag on returns since I know thats expected. I can live with that. Just wanted to make sure there wasn't anything else that was contributing to the underperformance. At least with iShares edge I can check it vs the index. The other tool you may want t...
by HippoSir
Mon Feb 03, 2020 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 257
Views: 47068

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

Anyone do the regressions on these funds now that we are a couple years in? All of the funds seem to be lagging in their categories except for VFMV (minimum volatility). I've done this with both the regression approach (portfoliovisualizer) and holdings based approach (etf.com/morningstar tools). T...
by HippoSir
Sun Feb 02, 2020 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value Premium - New FF paper
Replies: 264
Views: 15081

Re: The Value Premium - New FF paper

I started with the tilt 2 months ago. I wouldn't abandon it due to the recent underperformance, but because of the new data suggesting that the premium might not exist anymore. The underperformance is actually one of the reasons why I decided to go heavy with 50/50 for my US portfolio part. If the ...
by HippoSir
Sun Feb 02, 2020 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast
Replies: 137
Views: 10215

Re: Paul Merriman is my guest on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Elysium wrote: Sat Feb 01, 2020 8:27 pm Promise of excess returns though opaque market timing methods are typically done with intent to deceive.
To be 100% clear, you are suggestion Paul Merriman has the intent to deceive?

Anyway, great podcast. Good questions and interesting discussion.
by HippoSir
Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Value based investing:VFVA VS VTV
Replies: 22
Views: 2097

Re: Value based investing:VFVA VS VTV

annu wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 11:50 pm Portfolio visualizer shows vtv did better then vfva, especially in worst drawdowns. Kind of confused on what to do.
VFVA hasn't existed long enough to see a bad drawdown, what data are you looking at?

Note value has performed very badly recently, and VFVA is far more valuey than VTV.
by HippoSir
Tue Jan 28, 2020 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why dividends are useful
Replies: 55
Views: 3998

Re: Why dividends are useful

There are a lot of people out there who believe that owning dividend-paying stocks renders you immune to market crashes or bear markets, because you will always get paid the same dividends regardless of share price. I'm not sure if OP is one of those people. OP is more one of the "yeah, the price d...
by HippoSir
Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why dividends are useful
Replies: 55
Views: 3998

Re: Why dividends are useful

I feel like you may have a core misunderstanding of how dividends work.

When a dividend is cut, the price of the stock drops by that amount. I'd suggest reading the following:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=2876373