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by Triple digit golfer
Tue Mar 12, 2024 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what does the "11" mean in this video?
Replies: 8
Views: 1186

Re: what does the "11" mean in this video?

nisiprius wrote: Tue Mar 12, 2024 8:17 pm I think it's a screwup. I think the idea is that the dark slice represents Steve's share of the company, and the light cross-hatched remainder represents nine shares owned by other investors... and the "11" should be "9."
This is what I thought as well.
by Triple digit golfer
Sun Mar 10, 2024 7:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any Azul Wells fans here?
Replies: 9
Views: 1092

Re: Any Azul Wells fans here?

Yes, I recently discovered him and enjoy his videos. I find him refreshing and calming.
by Triple digit golfer
Sun Mar 10, 2024 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets flat
Replies: 57
Views: 4326

Re: Emerging markets flat

muffins14 wrote: Sun Mar 10, 2024 11:09 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sun Mar 10, 2024 10:39 am Nowhere near flat.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... jFGBPXYzCD
6.7% CAGR seems pretty decent. What is the OP looking at then?
I'm not sure. I assume either a price chart or a different starting point.
by Triple digit golfer
Sat Mar 09, 2024 7:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio - Which fund should I pick?
Replies: 12
Views: 2023

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio - Which fund should I pick?

The Three Fund Portfolio does not include a cash or money market fund. It includes a high quality, investment grade U.S. bond fund.
by Triple digit golfer
Sat Mar 09, 2024 6:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you spend a month on food?
Replies: 334
Views: 29229

Re: What's normal for grocery costs for a family?

Ours are $700 for a family of three.
by Triple digit golfer
Sat Mar 09, 2024 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard so bullish on international exposure in their all-in-one funds?
Replies: 77
Views: 6564

Re: Why is Vanguard so bullish on international exposure in their all-in-one funds?

Because they seem to be convinced of the same concept that this forum is founded upon: no one can pick stocks be it in a sector, a state, a dividend yield, or a country. Since active management and picking stocks does not work, the only answer is to hold a diversified sampling of the entire market. You can't tell me which country/sector will perform the best and which the worst in the year ahead. So I will own all of the countries and sectors in the proportion that $110 trillion dollars has decided the money should be divvied up. (More than 2x the value of all US real estate, by the way.) That's what Vanguard is angling at, because of the philosophy of one person, after whom this forum is named. The connection there seems pretty obvious. R...
by Triple digit golfer
Fri Mar 08, 2024 4:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 16 yr old - how can I best take on high risk?
Replies: 65
Views: 5236

Re: 16 yr old - how can I best take on high risk?

AVGE is great for what you want to do. Don't change a thing. Add to it consistently, let it do its thing over decades and you'll be a very wealthy person in due time. Be patient and don't sell. Do not be tempted by individual stocks or leverage.
by Triple digit golfer
Sun Mar 03, 2024 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How much should I have in my 401k" article for various ages - thoughts?
Replies: 45
Views: 6222

Re: "How much should I have in my 401k" article for various ages - thoughts?

kleiner wrote: Sun Mar 03, 2024 7:56 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Mar 02, 2024 9:00 pm I hate these articles because they're always income-based and they always specify 401(k) only. Why not other retirement vehicles or general taxable accounts? Or is that to be assumed, but in that case, just say how much money you should have invested.
The problem I see is that most people have only the haziest idea of how they spend their money. Assuming they spend a big chunk of their salary, the salary becomes a proxy for "money needed to support lifestyle"
Good point.
by Triple digit golfer
Sat Mar 02, 2024 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How much should I have in my 401k" article for various ages - thoughts?
Replies: 45
Views: 6222

Re: "How much should I have in my 401k" article for various ages - thoughts?

I hate these articles because they're always income-based and they always specify 401(k) only. Why not other retirement vehicles or general taxable accounts? Or is that to be assumed, but in that case, just say how much money you should have invested.
by Triple digit golfer
Sun Feb 25, 2024 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 3895
Views: 2424543

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

Would one use VOO instead of VTI for the 3-fund portfolio, and why? Performance-wise, VOO and VTI are similar, but VOO eliminates all mini-caps that are usually a distraction rather than a value add. Please let me know. I bought VXF (S&P 500 completion index) in early 2021 to complete VOO when it was at its peak, and 3 years later, it is still below its market peak. Back then, as understood, Tesla drove sharp growth of VXF until Tesla got added to the S&P500. I think I made a mistake and would rather stay with VOO only, and it makes me feel about VTI and its value add as VOO does the same job with less volatility. I would slightly favor the total market fund over an S&P 500 fund because it's more of the market. It's truly the m...
by Triple digit golfer
Sun Feb 25, 2024 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contributions to AA vs. lagging asset
Replies: 45
Views: 2374

Re: Contributions to AA vs. lagging asset

This little, probably nonconsequential conundrum always bugs me a little bit. I have traditionally, to the extent I reasonably can, directed contributions to the lagging asset. As stocks have taken off over the past several months, I've made almost no contributions to equities. Had I been contributing per my AA (80/20), perhaps I'd be at a point now where I'm close to rebalancing. Hard to say and I don't care to do the math. But instead, I'm only about 1 point ahead on equities. As long as you rebalance regularly, and are in a tax-advantaged account, it doesn't make much difference. If you make new investments according to your target allocation, you'll hit your stock rebalancing limit when the stock market is up, and you will then sell st...
by Triple digit golfer
Sun Feb 25, 2024 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks
Replies: 221
Views: 13740

Re: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks

Reducing tech sector concentration is similar to reducing stock allocation when rebalancing. I hold an equal weight S&P 500 index etf which is much less tech heavy. People don’t understand the risk until a crash happens. How has equal weight performed over 20 or 30 years compared to the standard S&P 500? Many understand the risk and diversify with bonds or cash, not more stocks. They understand that stocks are riskier than bonds so one should diversify with bonds like I do myself. Most don’t understand where the risk within the S&P 500 comes from. They don’t understand that a tech heavy index is riskier than one than is more diversified. I don't agree with this. This makes the assumption that anything other than an equal weight...
by Triple digit golfer
Sun Feb 25, 2024 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks
Replies: 221
Views: 13740

Re: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks

I am not saying that the Mag 7 stocks are very correlated. I am saying that the Mag 7 stocks on average are correlated and move with the tech sector of the S&P 500. Okay - who cares, though? They make up a huge portion of the tech sector. Why exclude or reduce a sector? If not market weight, what is the proper amount in any given company or sector? Reducing tech sector concentration is similar to reducing stock allocation when rebalancing. I hold an equal weight S&P 500 index etf which is much less tech heavy. People don’t understand the risk until a crash happens. How has equal weight performed over 20 or 30 years compared to the standard S&P 500? Many understand the risk and diversify with bonds or cash, not more stocks. They...
by Triple digit golfer
Sun Feb 25, 2024 12:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks
Replies: 221
Views: 13740

Re: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks

Apropos of nothing, just how correlated have the Magnificent Seven stocks been? Have they gone up and down in lockstep? Source https://imgur.com/zVFgOSX.png No two of the stocks have had a correlation higher than 0.58. One (Microsoft and Meta Platforms) as low as 0.25. With the total market, none has had a correlation higher than 0.65, and one (Meta Platforms) as low as 0.41. We are told that small-cap value, e.g. DFSVX, and international stocks, e.g. VXUS, are valuable diversifiers for VTI, despite having had correlations of 0.87 and 0.78, respectively ( Source ). So it seems to me that a case can be made that the stocks of the Magnificent Seven are reasonably diversified amongst themselves, and help diversify Total Stock Market. I am not...
by Triple digit golfer
Sun Feb 25, 2024 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks
Replies: 221
Views: 13740

Re: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks

Apropos of nothing, just how correlated have the Magnificent Seven stocks been? Have they gone up and down in lockstep? Source https://imgur.com/zVFgOSX.png No two of the stocks have had a correlation higher than 0.58. One (Microsoft and Meta Platforms) as low as 0.25. With the total market, none has had a correlation higher than 0.65, and one (Meta Platforms) as low as 0.41. We are told that small-cap value, e.g. DFSVX, and international stocks, e.g. VXUS, are valuable diversifiers for VTI, despite having had correlations of 0.87 and 0.78, respectively ( Source ). So it seems to me that a case can be made that the stocks of the Magnificent Seven are reasonably diversified amongst themselves, and help diversify Total Stock Market. I am not...
by Triple digit golfer
Sat Feb 24, 2024 10:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks
Replies: 221
Views: 13740

Re: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks

smartinvestor2020 wrote: Sat Feb 24, 2024 10:00 pmTake away NVDA returns and see how the S&P 500 has performed recently.
Why? What's the relevance?

You're overthinking investing greatly.
by Triple digit golfer
Sat Feb 24, 2024 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How important is management team when trying to value a company?
Replies: 24
Views: 2265

Re: How important is management team when trying to value a company?

I say no. Everybody is replaceable. I'd place more value on the company's ability to attract talent.
by Triple digit golfer
Sat Feb 24, 2024 4:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks
Replies: 221
Views: 13740

Re: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks

I did and I don’t agree with most of what he said. Even if the definition of high and low change drastically over cherry picked time periods, the time period from the article does show what “high” valuation is defined as numerically in terms of CAPE ratio. So are we now in a different period where “high” abruptly changed after 2020? I can understand the definition and value of CAPE changing between totally different multi decade periods. But please explain how the definition of “high” CAPE suddenly changes drastically in a few years. We have data point to show what CAPE ratio corresponds to in terms of returns. How can one possibly say that CAPE in 2012 was high? Even if the formula for CAPE changed, the linear trend of high CAPE and low r...
by Triple digit golfer
Sat Feb 24, 2024 4:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks
Replies: 221
Views: 13740

Re: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks

A belief based on CAPE data, is not a prediction. CAPE has been a good predictor if you believe the information. It's been a bad predictor of returns. Did you digest any of the posts that Homer made? I did and I don’t agree with most of what he said. Even if the definition of high and low change drastically over cherry picked time periods, the time period from the article does show what “high” valuation is defined as numerically in terms of CAPE ratio. So are we now in a different period where “high” abruptly changed after 2020? I can understand the definition and value of CAPE changing between totally different multi decade periods. But please explain how the definition of “high” CAPE suddenly changes drastically in a few years. We have d...
by Triple digit golfer
Sat Feb 24, 2024 3:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks
Replies: 221
Views: 13740

Re: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks

A belief based on CAPE data, is not a prediction. CAPE has been a good predictor if you believe the information. It's been a bad predictor of returns. Did you digest any of the posts that Homer made? I did and I don’t agree with most of what he said. Even if the definition of high and low change drastically over cherry picked time periods, the time period from the article does show what “high” valuation is defined as numerically in terms of CAPE ratio. So are we now in a different period where “high” abruptly changed after 2020? I can understand the definition and value of CAPE changing between totally different multi decade periods. But please explain how the definition of “high” CAPE suddenly changes drastically in a few years. We have d...
by Triple digit golfer
Sat Feb 24, 2024 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks
Replies: 221
Views: 13740

Re: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks

Why are people concerned with PE ratios? Why does stock price divided by PRIOR earnings matter in the least? You're not buying past earnings. You're buying future earnings.
by Triple digit golfer
Sat Feb 24, 2024 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks
Replies: 221
Views: 13740

Re: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks

In a lot of your post history, you state that what you're doing goes against Bogleheads philosophy, you're not a Boglehead, or you're doing trading that isn't a Boglehead technique. Why, then, do you come here expecting to see support or approval for what you're doing? What are you trying to get out of it?

It's like posting about cuts of steak on a vegan forum. How do you expect that they'll respond?
by Triple digit golfer
Sat Feb 24, 2024 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to balance VTSAX?
Replies: 22
Views: 3001

Re: How to balance VTSAX?

stan1 wrote: Sat Feb 24, 2024 8:26 am How about this:
Balance it with Total International.
Bingo. Total world market cap. It's what I do.

But if he wants to tilt away from large caps and growth stocks (both of which I think are silly arbitrary labels), small cap value (another silly arbitrary label) makes sense too.
by Triple digit golfer
Sat Feb 24, 2024 8:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks
Replies: 221
Views: 13740

Re: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks

Another thing that we should not lose sight of is that at any point in time, the market and components within are valued at the level that millions of investors in the aggregate deem fair. To suggest otherwise is to suggest that you are smarter or have more insight than the market does.

Why would anybody feel that way?

In 1996, people said the market was top heavy and over valued. Look what happened the next three years.

Not only do you have to predict what will happen, you have to be right about when it happens, then be right a third time in when to undo whatever contrarian position you take.

No thanks to that. I'll go with the get rich slow path. It's worked so far and it'll keep working.
by Triple digit golfer
Sat Feb 24, 2024 8:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks
Replies: 221
Views: 13740

Re: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks

For all the kids reading this market timing strategy... don't try it at home. It’s NOT a market timing strategy. Stocks can go up at a very high annual return from here for the next ten years. I am not timing the market by tilting away from Mag 7 stocks. Reducing concentration risk by diversifying is NOT timing the market. What you're doing is the definition of market timing. Also, you are reducing diversification, getting more diversified. How is diversifying the same as market timing? Bogleheads promote diversification by adding bonds and international stocks. I want to diversify by reducing concentration within the S&P 500. I disagree that what you're doing is diversification. If the market was two stocks, Amazon and Buffalo Wild Wi...
by Triple digit golfer
Sat Feb 24, 2024 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks
Replies: 221
Views: 13740

Re: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks

smartinvestor2020 wrote: Sat Feb 24, 2024 7:55 am
exodusing wrote: Sat Feb 24, 2024 7:47 am
smartinvestor2020 wrote: Sat Feb 24, 2024 7:41 am
exodusing wrote: Sat Feb 24, 2024 7:35 am
smartinvestor2020 wrote: Sat Feb 24, 2024 7:34 am

I never said I can predict the market <snip>
"I also believe that the next 10 years will produce low returns as predicted by the CAPE ratio."
A belief based on CAPE data, is not a prediction.

CAPE has been a good predictor if you believe the information.

I don’t predict markets or future returns.
What's the difference between a belief about the next 10 years' returns and a prediction of the next 10 years' returns? A prediction is what someone believes will happen.

CAPE has not been a good predictor if you're using data available in real time, as ably demonstrated by Homer and others.
I don’t predict the market. I only interpret what has been written about CAPE.
With respect, incorrectly.
by Triple digit golfer
Sat Feb 24, 2024 7:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks
Replies: 221
Views: 13740

Re: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks

smartinvestor2020 wrote: Sat Feb 24, 2024 7:41 amA belief based on CAPE data, is not a prediction.

CAPE has been a good predictor if you believe the information.
It's been a bad predictor of returns. Did you digest any of the posts that Homer made?
by Triple digit golfer
Sat Feb 24, 2024 5:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks
Replies: 221
Views: 13740

Re: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2020/07/20/the-remarkable-accuracy-of-cape-as-a-predictor-of-returns-1 See, here's what I'm trying to say... See that chart in the website above? It shows pretty high returns around CAPE of 25, because it includes all the years from 1996-2020 that had decent returns with a CAPE of 25. But in 1996, there was only one data point for CAPE of 25, and it was BAD. The chart from 1996 was COMPLETELY different. The best-fit line hit 0% real returns at a CAPE of 25. Which is why Shiller predicted 0% 10-year real returns. The chart today shows 10-year returns in the 8% range (not sure if that's nominal or real) The slope of the line was completely different in the past.. Even in 2012, the slope of the lin...
by Triple digit golfer
Fri Feb 23, 2024 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to balance VTSAX?
Replies: 22
Views: 3001

Re: How to balance VTSAX?

UpperNwGuy wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 7:51 pm VTSAX didn't change. Morningstar changed their label for VTSAX. Ignore Morningstar.
You said, much more succinctly and effectively, what I tried to say above.
by Triple digit golfer
Fri Feb 23, 2024 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to balance VTSAX?
Replies: 22
Views: 3001

Re: How to balance VTSAX?

You're looking at this wrong. VTSAX is the U.S. market. Growth and value are arbitrary labels. The market is the market. It's neutral. It's totally balanced and always will be when the benchmark is the market.

If you wish to tilt away from the market, the logical choice is a small cap value holding.
by Triple digit golfer
Fri Feb 23, 2024 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Diversification means always having to say you’re sorry.
Replies: 62
Views: 7110

Re: Diversification means always having to say you’re sorry.

Please explain where the logic is wrong from (A) to (D)? When you rebalance back to a set asset allocation, you sell something that has grown at a higher rate in order to buy something that has grown at a smaller rate. Less growth doesn't necessarily make something cheaper, although sometimes both things might be true at the same time. For the long term, stock may grow at a higher rate than the bond. But, that may not be true in the short term with oscillation. Especially not true for the period like July 2020 t0 July 2023. Essentially, the stock just oscillate and back to the same level in that period. And, this may not have to do with rebalancing either. Someone is contributing into their 60/40 portfolio. They just buy whatever is under ...
by Triple digit golfer
Fri Feb 23, 2024 9:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Diversification means always having to say you’re sorry.
Replies: 62
Views: 7110

Re: Diversification means always having to say you’re sorry.

I did not contradict myself. You just like to argue. I asked you if stocks are on sale all the time. You think that they're always on sale, which contradicts your earlier post saying that they're sometimes on sale. Triple digit golfer, "I asked you if stocks are on sale all the time. You think that they're always on sale, which contradicts your earlier post saying that they're sometimes on sale." A) I do not need the stock to be on sale all the time. B) In fact, in order to buy low and sell high, the stock has to oscillate with high and low. "You think that they're always on sale, which contradicts your earlier post saying that they're sometimes on sale." C) I never stated that they are always on sale. D) With 60/40 por...
by Triple digit golfer
Fri Feb 23, 2024 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Diversification means always having to say you’re sorry.
Replies: 62
Views: 7110

Re: Diversification means always having to say you’re sorry.

Triple digit golfer, Only if you believe that the stock market does not oscillate. It only goes straight up. Is that what you believed? "Stocks are expected to outperform bonds. " But, even if that is true in the real world, it does not goes straight up. It oscillates. Hence, the opportunity to buy low and sell high. KlangFool Of course they oscillate. So do bonds. If stocks perform better than bonds over one's holding period, then bonds weren't on sale. I know what's next. The coming recession and so on. You have to survive to succeed. What if you have to sell depressed stocks. Hold 3 years of cash. I get it. But the fact is, most investors' holding periods see stocks outperforming bonds and therefore, calling bonds a sale is no...
by Triple digit golfer
Fri Feb 23, 2024 6:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Diversification means always having to say you’re sorry.
Replies: 62
Views: 7110

Re: Diversification means always having to say you’re sorry.

OP, No. Diversification means that you are always buying something on sale. Buy Low and Sell High is a very good thing. Diversification doesn't mean you're always buying something on sale. Triple digit golfer, Only if you believe that the stock market does not oscillate. It only goes straight up. Is that what you believed? "Stocks are expected to outperform bonds. " But, even if that is true in the real world, it does not goes straight up. It oscillates. Hence, the opportunity to buy low and sell high. KlangFool Of course they oscillate. So do bonds. If stocks perform better than bonds over one's holding period, then bonds weren't on sale. I know what's next. The coming recession and so on. You have to survive to succeed. What if...
by Triple digit golfer
Thu Feb 22, 2024 9:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Diversification means always having to say you’re sorry.
Replies: 62
Views: 7110

Re: Diversification means always having to say you’re sorry.

OP, No. Diversification means that you are always buying something on sale. Buy Low and Sell High is a very good thing. Diversification doesn't mean you're always buying something on sale. Triple digit golfer, Only if you believe that the stock market does not oscillate. It only goes straight up. Is that what you believed? "Stocks are expected to outperform bonds. " But, even if that is true in the real world, it does not goes straight up. It oscillates. Hence, the opportunity to buy low and sell high. KlangFool Of course they oscillate. So do bonds. If stocks perform better than bonds over one's holding period, then bonds weren't on sale. I know what's next. The coming recession and so on. You have to survive to succeed. What if...
by Triple digit golfer
Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Diversification means always having to say you’re sorry.
Replies: 62
Views: 7110

Re: Diversification means always having to say you’re sorry.

KlangFool wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2024 5:18 pm OP,

No. Diversification means that you are always buying something on sale. Buy Low and Sell High is a very good thing.
Diversification doesn't mean you're always buying something on sale.

Stocks are expected to outperform bonds. If stocks are over allocated and you buy bonds, it doesn't mean that bonds are on sale. What does "on sale" even mean in this context? It implies a good value. Just because stocks are high doesn't mean that bonds are a good value. They are independent of one another.

Stocks will likely outperform those bonds that were on sale, so what exactly made it a sale for bonds? If the stocks outperform, doesn't it mean that the stocks were on sale?

Diversification is risk-management, nothing more.
by Triple digit golfer
Thu Feb 22, 2024 11:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 401k fund choices (make sure you're sitting down)
Replies: 32
Views: 2834

Re: 401k fund choices (make sure you're sitting down)

toddthebod wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2024 11:25 am Assuming you aren't 100% equities, I would put your fixed income in this account. Lower expected growth means less fees!
I agree.

I wouldn't give up the tax deferral. I'd use the 401(k).
by Triple digit golfer
Thu Feb 22, 2024 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contributions to AA vs. lagging asset
Replies: 45
Views: 2374

Re: Contributions to AA vs. lagging asset

mikejuss wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2024 11:22 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2024 11:18 am Thank you all for your comments.

Just purchased $2,000 of bonds today!
Your recession-era self is going to thank you. :mrgreen:
:sharebeer
by Triple digit golfer
Thu Feb 22, 2024 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contributions to AA vs. lagging asset
Replies: 45
Views: 2374

Re: Contributions to AA vs. lagging asset

Thank you all for your comments.

Just purchased $2,000 of bonds today!
by Triple digit golfer
Wed Feb 21, 2024 5:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying off credit card debt
Replies: 31
Views: 3055

Re: Paying off credit card debt

delamer wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2024 3:18 pm Have you looked into the debt snowball or debt avalanche method, both discussed here: https://www.ramseysolutions.com/debt/ho ... thod-works

If your friend is still using the cards with balances, s/he needs to stop adding to that debt be uase that’s adding interest. Go cash or get a new card that’s paid off every month.
I totally agree with the Ramsey approach.

Consolidating is just putting out the fire and lighting another one. Your friend needs to be disciplined and stop the debt habit, and the debt snowball is the best solution I've seen for this.
by Triple digit golfer
Wed Feb 21, 2024 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contributions to AA vs. lagging asset
Replies: 45
Views: 2374

Re: Contributions to AA vs. lagging asset

Why do you assume that I think it's a problem? I was wondering what the practical differences are in two different approaches to contributions. See my above post about strategy and tactics. A practical difference may be the inconvenience of making constant changes to one's investment amounts. The company I worked for has a 401(K) plan and I could specify that automated contributions be done in a way to maintain, as much as possible, the desired AA. If I didn't have that option, I would select a constant contribution stock/bond ratio and do some periodic rebalancing. This has no tax consequences in a 401(k). I like your post. Good points. My tactic at the moment is to contribute to bonds because they are the "under allocated asset.&quo...
by Triple digit golfer
Wed Feb 21, 2024 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contributions to AA vs. lagging asset
Replies: 45
Views: 2374

Re: Contributions to AA vs. lagging asset

KlangFool wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2024 10:32 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2024 10:21 am
KlangFool wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2024 9:40 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2024 8:18 am
KlangFool wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2024 7:20 am

I disagreed. I believe that OP has a mistaken belief that stock can only go up. And, that will be fixed in the coming recession.

It is easy to tolerate stock going up. It is much harder when it crashes and stay down for a very long time.

KlangFool
I absolutely do not believe that stocks can only go up.
Then, what is the problem of buying current lagging asset: bond?

KlangFool
Why do you assume that I think it's a problem? I was wondering what the practical differences are in two different approaches to contributions.
Then, don't use the word: lagging. It has some implicit meaning. Try using a neutral word like under allocated asset.

KlangFool
Sure, I'll get right on that.
by Triple digit golfer
Wed Feb 21, 2024 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contributions to AA vs. lagging asset
Replies: 45
Views: 2374

Re: Contributions to AA vs. lagging asset

KlangFool wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2024 9:40 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2024 8:18 am
KlangFool wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2024 7:20 am
TimeIsYourFriend wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2024 7:05 am If you can tolerate equities straying from your designated allocation, then you should be at the level all the time anyway.
I disagreed. I believe that OP has a mistaken belief that stock can only go up. And, that will be fixed in the coming recession.

It is easy to tolerate stock going up. It is much harder when it crashes and stay down for a very long time.

KlangFool
I absolutely do not believe that stocks can only go up.
Then, what is the problem of buying current lagging asset: bond?

KlangFool
Why do you assume that I think it's a problem? I was wondering what the practical differences are in two different approaches to contributions.
by Triple digit golfer
Wed Feb 21, 2024 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contributions to AA vs. lagging asset
Replies: 45
Views: 2374

Re: Contributions to AA vs. lagging asset

This little, probably nonconsequential conundrum always bugs me a little bit. I have traditionally, to the extent I reasonably can, directed contributions to the lagging asset. As stocks have taken off over the past several months, I've made almost no contributions to equities. Had I been contributing per my AA (80/20), perhaps I'd be at a point now where I'm close to rebalancing. Hard to say and I don't care to do the math. But instead, I'm only about 1 point ahead on equities. If equities go on a 4-5 year run, as they often do, are people really contributing nothing to them the entire time? Is it more ideal to contribute per AA, then rebalance and take the equity gains? Are the answers to my questions just a matter of a very slightly mor...
by Triple digit golfer
Wed Feb 21, 2024 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contributions to AA vs. lagging asset
Replies: 45
Views: 2374

Re: Contributions to AA vs. lagging asset

KlangFool wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2024 7:20 am
TimeIsYourFriend wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2024 7:05 am If you can tolerate equities straying from your designated allocation, then you should be at the level all the time anyway.
I disagreed. I believe that OP has a mistaken belief that stock can only go up. And, that will be fixed in the coming recession.

It is easy to tolerate stock going up. It is much harder when it crashes and stay down for a very long time.

KlangFool
I absolutely do not believe that stocks can only go up.
by Triple digit golfer
Wed Feb 21, 2024 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contributions to AA vs. lagging asset
Replies: 45
Views: 2374

Contributions to AA vs. lagging asset

This little, probably nonconsequential conundrum always bugs me a little bit. I have traditionally, to the extent I reasonably can, directed contributions to the lagging asset. As stocks have taken off over the past several months, I've made almost no contributions to equities. Had I been contributing per my AA (80/20), perhaps I'd be at a point now where I'm close to rebalancing. Hard to say and I don't care to do the math. But instead, I'm only about 1 point ahead on equities. If equities go on a 4-5 year run, as they often do, are people really contributing nothing to them the entire time? Is it more ideal to contribute per AA, then rebalance and take the equity gains? Are the answers to my questions just a matter of a very slightly more...
by Triple digit golfer
Sun Feb 18, 2024 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is it Too Late to Invest in VTI?
Replies: 126
Views: 19038

Re: Is it Too Late to Invest in VTI?

If the market crashes, vti will absolutely crash. If it didn’t there would be something very wrong, as it is designed to mirror the market. Peaks and crashes over the long term are going to happen, so your investment strategy has to take that into account. VTI is 12% made up of two stocks - Apple and MS. Just 2 stocks. It is 31% technology. That is not "the market". That is not how to diversify. Wise to include other funds, in addition to VTI. VTI is a market weighted index of the US market. It is invested in stocks in the same proportion that the entire market has invested in stocks. So it depends on how you define "diversity". VTI (and others like it) are diverse if you define diversity as reflecting the broad market....
by Triple digit golfer
Sat Feb 17, 2024 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Carlson : Is the stock market too concentrated?
Replies: 50
Views: 5278

Re: Ben Carlson : Is the stock market too concentrated?

And the main response to Ben Carlson is that the stock market has ALWAYS BEEN CONCENTRATED. There was a point where IBM was like 8% of the market all by itself, right? And AT&T was 6%? Long-term investments here. So far, it hasn't matter that the stock market is concentrated most of the time, in the long run. Some companies drop down, new ones move up, so far, we still get rich, over the long run. I think of this "concentration" differently than most. We know that historically, very few stocks generate the majority of the market's return. Concentration at the top is simply the result of this. By holding them all, you'll benefit from whatever the next "magnificent seven" will be, or whatever stupid name we'll use at ...