Search found 20 matches

by phantom cosmonaut
Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Filing for unemployment (question about base year)
Replies: 1
Views: 238

Filing for unemployment (question about base year)

I filed for unemployment in New Jersey on 3/29/2020. As I now understand it, this means that my benefits are calculated using the first four of the last five completed quarters. This means that my base year is 10/01/2018 - 9/30/2019. However, had I waited until 4/1/2020 to file, my base year would have been 01/01/2019-12/31/2020. I realized after the fact that this is how benefits are calculated. The problem is that I had significantly higher earnings during the second of the two base years so, by filing at the end of March instead of at the beginning of April, may have significantly decreased my benefits. Is there any way to fix this? Could I, for example, refile for benefits now, and so reset the base year? I sent this question to the une...
by phantom cosmonaut
Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:59 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298525

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Suppose that with no interventions, the US has a $20 trillion GDP per year, or $5 trillion per quarter. Second quarter is down -25%, so we make $3.75 trillion ... The practice in the U.S. is to use annualized rates for quarterly GDP. This is because you generally want to compare the slopes of GDP change, so they always use one year for the denominator. The 25% decrease for the quarter in the report is an annualized rate. So for one quarter that is a decrease of about 5.7% from the previous quarter, not 25%. Thanks! This is really helpful. I feel kind of sill for not knowing that. :D So trying the math again . Given -25% growth in the second quarter, 12% growth in the third, and 10% in the fourth, we get -3.3% for all three quarters. If gro...
by phantom cosmonaut
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:03 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298525

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Is that a reasonable tradeoff? It would be if lives we were saving, say, the lives of children, since the children saved would have another 60 years of happy life ahead of them. But in Italy, the average age of people killed by the coronavirus is nearly 80, and those killed are disproportionately those who have poor health to begin with. This means that we are purchasing very little additional life expectancy with our $5 trillion. Where do you see this? I see them projecting a 24% decline in the second quarter, but only a 3.8% decline for the year. That's bad, but certainly not historically bad. There have been plenty of years with much worse GDP drops, albeit not really since the 40s. Still, that wouldn't even come close to touching the G...
by phantom cosmonaut
Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:18 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 298525

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I've gone back and forth on whether the current measures make sense, given the economic cost. I finally came around to the position that hitting pause for 4-8 weeks is probably a good idea, if only because it gives researchers a chance to figure out what, exactly, we're dealing with. It is staggering, though, just how much this is all going to cost. Goldman Sachs apparently thinks that US GDP will drop by -25% (!) as a result of these measures. That works out to about $5 trillion dollars. Now suppose that by taking these actions, we are saving one million lives. That means that we are saving lives, but at the cost of $5 million per life. Is that a reasonable tradeoff? It would be if lives we were saving, say, the lives of children, since th...
by phantom cosmonaut
Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cloud storage or local SSD hard drive: cost factors
Replies: 16
Views: 1385

Re: Cloud storage or local SSD hard drive: cost factors

You want to have both a local and a non-local backup, so the two are not interchangeable. The non-local cloud backup protects you from the possibility that your house burns up. The local backup protects you from the possibility that your cloud backup provider fails in one way or another. Also, having two forms of backup protects your from the possibility that a single backup solution results in corrupted files or other strange problems.
by phantom cosmonaut
Sun Sep 16, 2018 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cheapest smartphone option for 2 weeks
Replies: 12
Views: 1152

Re: Cheapest smartphone option for 2 weeks

Turbo29 wrote: Sun Sep 16, 2018 3:18 pm
phantom cosmonaut wrote: Sun Sep 16, 2018 2:06 pm

If you can find a Nexus 5x with boot loop problems, even better. Google will give you a free MotoX4. Sell that after a month and you'll turn a profit. :D
The catch is you have to be a Project Fi user. I wasn't.

https://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/pr ... placement/
Bummer. I went through at least three Nexus Xs, but was on Project Fi, so they just kept replacing them.
by phantom cosmonaut
Sun Sep 16, 2018 2:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I get a new iPhone?
Replies: 43
Views: 4975

Re: Should I get a new iPhone?

pondering wrote: Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:41 pm We pay $217 a month for the 3 phones...
$5208 every two years for phones? You could buy a pretty decent car for that. :shock:
by phantom cosmonaut
Sun Sep 16, 2018 2:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cheapest smartphone option for 2 weeks
Replies: 12
Views: 1152

Re: Cheapest smartphone option for 2 weeks

Turbo29 wrote: Sun Sep 16, 2018 11:55 am
phantom cosmonaut wrote: Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:10 am

1) Buy a used Nexus 5x on eBay. You should be able to get one for about $70. If you want something with a large screen, get a Nexus 6p. If you want something a little newer, get a Pixel 1.

I wouldn't pay that much for a 5x. I had a 5x purchased new, died one day without warning. Turns out there is a problem (known to LG, yet they kept selling the phone) known as the "bootloop." Google "Nexus 5x bootloop."

The 6p was manufactured by a different company so it's probably ok.
If you can find a Nexus 5x with boot loop problems, even better. Google will give you a free MotoX4. Sell that after a month and you'll turn a profit. :D
by phantom cosmonaut
Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cell phone insurance
Replies: 37
Views: 3850

Re: Cell phone insurance

xrvision wrote: Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:29 pm My question is how do Bogleheads handle cell phone insurance?
If you feel the need to insure a phone, then the phone is too expensive. Get a cheaper one off eBay or Swappa.
by phantom cosmonaut
Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cheapest smartphone option for 2 weeks
Replies: 12
Views: 1152

Re: Cheapest smartphone option for 2 weeks

I need some kind of smartphone and plan for the final two weeks of September (during which I'll be relocating). What's the cheapest way to accomplish this? 1) Buy a used Nexus 5x on eBay. You should be able to get one for about $70. If you want something with a large screen, get a Nexus 6p. If you want something a little newer, get a Pixel 1. 2) Get a plan from Project Fi . This link will give you $20 off your first month of service, which costs $20 for unlimited calls and text. You pay $10 per gigabyte for mobile data (I rarely use more than half that). To get the credit, your account needs to be active for 30 days. 3) When you're done, cancel the plan and resell the phone on eBay or Swappa. You'll get a phone and a month of top-notch cel...
by phantom cosmonaut
Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I get a new iPhone?
Replies: 43
Views: 4975

Re: Should I get a new iPhone?

ThankYouJack wrote: Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:59 pm Think it's worth it and if so, which phone?
Wait until the iPhone XR comes out. Then buy a used iPhone 8 Plus off eBay or Swappa. I bet they get under $550 with everyone trying to upgrade all at once.

My basic strategy is to upgrade every year, but buy used and stay one or two generations behind.
by phantom cosmonaut
Sun Jun 24, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Battle Of Passive Strategies
Replies: 71
Views: 9694

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Battle Of Passive Strategies

Can someone please explain why the Sharpe ratio is used for performance comparison? I'm reading criticisms (for example, Investopedia ) that assumptions about the shape of the distribution may cause the results to be misinterpreted. Would the Sortino ratio be more appropriate? We're all familiar with the idea that its not just returns that matter, its return relative to risk. Otherwise owning more stock would always be better than owning bonds. The Sharp and Sortino ratios are just ways of comparing the returns of a fund to the risk of a fund. One potential problem, that you point out, is that they both have an opinion about how to measure the "risk" of a fund. If you disagree with this way of measuring risk, those numbers will n...
by phantom cosmonaut
Sun Jun 24, 2018 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Battle Of Passive Strategies
Replies: 71
Views: 9694

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Battle Of Passive Strategies

YTD, 1 year and 3 year returns for BOSVX (my firm's choice of preferred fund), DFSVX, VISVX and S&P I formatted your returns: BOSVX DFSVX VISVX S&P YTD 9.0 7.9 5.1 4.0 1-year return 22.8 20.6 16.2 15.4 3-year return 11.8 9.1 9.8 11.4 Lest we forget, Vanguard small value and Vanguard total market have both had better returns and lower risk than BOSVX since inception. The fund would have outperformed the Vanguard funds if it had similarly low fees, but all the outperformance and then some went to the managers. You also have to hire an advisor to gain access to the fund, which would have degraded performance even farther. Phantom http://i66.tinypic.com/2q3myag.png http://i68.tinypic.com/15nwsyf.png
by phantom cosmonaut
Sun Jun 24, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You
Replies: 126
Views: 13118

Re: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You

In addition to nonparametric tests which don't assume a normal distribution, people working in other fields have developed: -"sequential tests," where you want to be able to test continuously to see if significance has been reached while data is being acquired, and stop when it has been--in order to get an earlier result, or avoid the expense of further testing; --"multiple hypothesis tests," where you know that you are going to perform more than one test, but have at least stated in advance how many tests you will be performing before you begin testing the data. A trivially easy way to do this is called "the Bonferroni correction" or adjustment. There are also specialized, more powerful multiple hypothesis te...
by phantom cosmonaut
Sun Jun 24, 2018 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You
Replies: 126
Views: 13118

Re: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You

As jalbert notes, the use of t statistics to show statistical significance is only valid if you have some good reason to believe that you are looking at a) independent values of b) normally distributed data. There are other statistical techniques, well -known in 1992 but for some reason (yes, I'm cynical) rarely used by financial economists, that do not depend on the assumption of normality. This is something I know basically nothing about, but it is curious that finance is so committed to parametric statistics when (a) non-parametric statistics is a thing and (b) finance is a paradigmatic example of an area in which we know very little about the underlying distributions. The following nice explanation of non-parametric statistic is from h...
by phantom cosmonaut
Sun Jun 24, 2018 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You
Replies: 126
Views: 13118

Re: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You

Well, an introductory text on mathematical statistics might have one or more chapters on the estimation of parameters of probability distributions, such as mean or variance, from sample statistics. They might indeed. All the ones I’ve read have. Maybe you’re basing your skepticism on intuition or on something you think someone said in some other context, I don’t know. But if it was as easy to demonstrate the invalidity of these regressions as you keep implying, you’d show us the tests proving it. Right? (1) The original point vineviz was making is that you can tilt towards multiple factors without doing anything too complicated. Given the proliferation of cheap factor factor ETFs, this strikes me as obvious. (2) On the other hand, it is pr...
by phantom cosmonaut
Sat Jun 23, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You
Replies: 126
Views: 13118

Re: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You

The five year returns are below. One takeaway is that if there are still factor premiums, they may be small enough and finicky enough that fund selection can make a significant difference. Thanks for doing this but really the main takeaway that should never be forgotten is that five years is a rather meaningless short time period. Wes Gray's quote which Robert T. refers to is great. I suppose I would make an exception if the markets performed in a manner where you would expect that a small cap value tilt should work but the past five years have been the opposite of that with the markets going consistently up and being led by large cap growth/tech type of story. I'm kind of surprised it is even close actually which is a credit to Robert T.'...
by phantom cosmonaut
Sat Jun 23, 2018 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You
Replies: 126
Views: 13118

Re: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You

My portfolio has held up fairly well with higher returns over the last 15, 10, 5, and 3 year periods. This is despite views that the small cap premium is dead and the value premium is following suit. If the small cap premium is dead, it was “deader” 20 years ago. As a way of trying to replicate Robert's returns, I plugged the example DFA and RAFI portfolios from his collected thoughts thread into portfolio visualizer, along with a comparable Vanguard portfolio. You can see the results for yourself here . Portfolio 1: Vanguard Portfolio 2: RAFI Portfolio 3: DFA The five year returns are below. One takeaway is that if there are still factor premiums, they may be small enough and finicky enough that fund selection can make a significant diffe...
by phantom cosmonaut
Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rowing machine motivation
Replies: 82
Views: 8367

Re: Rowing machine motivation

[...] I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you're telling the truth, which means you're probably one of the most gifted endurance amateurs out there. I guarantee that if you took 100 random people, including current triathletes and endurance athletes, limited their bike and run training to the extent you do and keep them there for 3 years (so you can't coast off prior training), literally 99% of them would drop out of the IM at some point or not make the cutoff. Your training method makes even the 'raw beginner' plans for ironman training or even straight up half marathon training, look super hard in comparison. So I'm a runner who thinks the proper way to train for a marathon is to run 50 miles a week at a minimum and...
by phantom cosmonaut
Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rowing machine motivation
Replies: 82
Views: 8367

Re: Rowing machine motivation

So I bought a concept 2 rowing machine. It’s awesome. But I can’t seem to last longer than 5 minutes on it. I have to struggle to get to a 1000 meters in 5 minutes... Anybody have some tips? Pretty sure my technique is decent. Watched a bunch of YouTube vids. Or maybe it’s my conditioning. Make sure you're not rowing too fast. The rule of thumb is 80/20. At least 80% of the time, you want to be rowing slowly enough to pass the "talk test". You should be able to carry on a conversation with someone, but the doing so should be just a touch uncomfortable. If you can't do that, you need to go slower. If talking feels completely normal, you're going too slow. If you want to improve your speed, what you need is a high volume at low int...