Search found 113 matches

by cj2018
Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 75
Views: 3918

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

To save everyone the effort of repeating all the back and forth that has happened on the prior threads I will summarize the counter arguments: 1) The future may not look like the past 2) Australia has outperformed the US historically 3) Plenty of good companies outside the US too 4) If you are okay...
by cj2018
Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7364
Views: 1546505

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

It's great to see many BHs show up today!! How's everybody doing?

This thread will keep my day interesting :)

Image
by cj2018
Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7364
Views: 1546505

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Kinda funny seeing my sea of red, with one little green island holding...GE! I was hoping to buy some more, expecting a good drop, nope. Not yet. We could be in for a bumpy ride. Return items to overhead bins, secure tray holders, and fasten your seatbelt. Just a little bit of turbulence, we will b...
by cj2018
Mon Oct 01, 2018 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?
Replies: 71
Views: 6105

Re: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?

Our money supply is not a "free market". It is heavily managed, and it's managed with a mandate to maximize employment, stabilize prices , and moderate long-term interest rates . Those are indeed the statutory objectives of the Federal Reserve System, as mandated by Congress which created the Fed. ...
by cj2018
Wed Sep 26, 2018 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?
Replies: 71
Views: 6105

Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?

As expected by market, the Fed raised interest today and signaled another one in Dec. It got me thinking: What's the main economic rationale for manually adjusting interest rates? The reason why I'm wondering this are the following: In a free market, shouldn't rates determined by the supply/demand o...
by cj2018
Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moved to 100% FDIC Insured Cash today (college money needed in 3 years)
Replies: 26
Views: 2264

Re: Moved to 100% FDIC Insured Cash today

Moved college account money needed in another three years into FDIC Insured cash today. Previously was in 60/40 equity/ bond allocation, and about time to reduce all equity and bond risk with money needed in just over a couple of years. Sorry for the attention grabbing title :D with all that discus...
by cj2018
Sun Sep 09, 2018 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: RSU tax payment question - Sell to Cover or Pay Cash
Replies: 3
Views: 430

RSU tax payment question - Sell to Cover or Pay Cash

BHs, I just realized the brokerage who handles my RSU grants allow the option of elect tax payment - let me elaborate: By default, it's on " Sell to Cover " as RSU vests. So if I vest 10 shares, 4 shares are sold automatically by broker for tax withholding purpose Pay Cash to Cover Taxe s: does this...
by cj2018
Sun Sep 09, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 18776

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

Not that it's relevant to anything I do, but I have a vague feeling this market still has a couple more years of upside before stalling. Economy's doing well, company fundamentals are good, inflation is a threat especially with tarriffs on the horizon, and we're nowhere close to the craziness of Y2...
by cj2018
Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: To Be or Not to Be...Married
Replies: 135
Views: 4894

Re: To Be or Not to Be...Married

Additional Info that some people had asked for: Income and Net-worth: His: 60K/year, net worth negative 200K - Age 28 Hers: 180K/year, net worth 500-600K - Age 27 I glanced through entire thread so far and just can’t help not responding anymore. Wow - what a great deal for your fiancé financially. ...
by cj2018
Wed Aug 29, 2018 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 317
Views: 32940

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

The GDP grew 4.2% year-on-year. That's excellent news :moneybag Yes indeed! Good indicators are driving the rosy outlook. Is the GDP number real or nominal? If real, that’s good news. Otherwise it might indicate inflation is finally starting to accelerate. I honestly worry about how the cycle will ...
by cj2018
Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 317
Views: 32940

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

The GDP grew 4.2% year-on-year. That's excellent news :moneybag Yes indeed! Good indicators are driving the rosy outlook. Is the GDP number real or nominal? If real, that’s good news. Otherwise it might indicate inflation is finally starting to accelerate. I honestly worry about how the cycle will ...
by cj2018
Sun Aug 19, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why the Yale Endowment Hate? [Request for portfolio help]
Replies: 111
Views: 8967

Re: Why the Yale Endowment Hate?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-01/harvard-blew-1-billion-in-bet-on-tomatoes-sugar-and-eucalyptus From the above article, it appears MIT trounced everyone else for the ten years ended March 2018. What was their portfolio? I know, in fiscal year 2016, its investment breakdown is roug...
by cj2018
Sun Aug 19, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 330
Views: 25322

Re: Invest in Tesla?

This is hilarious. You're on a forum organized around owning low-cost, broad-market index funds. Nearly all of us own Tesla in some respect . Haters are gonna hate. Tesla shouldn't have gone public at all and should've stayed private just like other disruptive tech businesses such as Uber (who by t...
by cj2018
Sun Aug 19, 2018 1:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 330
Views: 25322

Re: Invest in Tesla?

New Youtube interview has already gotten 2 million views in just 1 day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MevKTPN4ozw&t=57s Elon is cool again! Look for a pop on Monday based on that. This is after the stock was down 10% on Friday because Elon cried. Then of course the stock was up 10% in one day a c...
by cj2018
Thu Aug 16, 2018 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95217

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

9 pages in. I have to ask. Has a single person changed their position having read or participated in this thread? :shock: :oops: :sharebeer Good question to ask. For me, nope. You'll have to pry my international holdings from my cold, dead hands. Yes, I have changed my mindset about why having inte...
by cj2018
Thu Aug 16, 2018 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95217

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Wow, 8-page response so far and is still going strong..amazing. FWIW, here's the AA for MIT's endowment as of 2016, and it illustrates why it's important to diversify across MULTIPLE asset classes to preserve your fortune. I'm currently 100% in US-equity during accumulation stage, but will 100% mor...
by cj2018
Thu Aug 16, 2018 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95217

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Wow, 8-page response so far and is still going strong..amazing. FWIW, here's the AA for MIT's endowment as of 2016, and it illustrates why it's important to diversify across MULTIPLE asset classes to preserve your fortune. I'm currently 100% in US-equity during accumulation stage, but will 100% morp...
by cj2018
Thu Aug 16, 2018 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why the Yale Endowment Hate? [Request for portfolio help]
Replies: 111
Views: 8967

Re: Why the Yale Endowment Hate?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-01/harvard-blew-1-billion-in-bet-on-tomatoes-sugar-and-eucalyptus From the above article, it appears MIT trounced everyone else for the ten years ended March 2018. What was their portfolio? I know, in fiscal year 2016, its investment breakdown is roug...
by cj2018
Thu Aug 16, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why the Yale Endowment Hate? [Request for portfolio help]
Replies: 111
Views: 8967

Re: Why the Yale Endowment Hate?

OP, where did you read this? Can you provide more context so those replying can deal with any possible criticism more substantively? ... I graduated from Harvard, so I am required to hate Yale. (But I have no dislike for their highly-successful endowment investment strategy.) Well, I graduated from...
by cj2018
Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95217

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I thought long and hard before establishing developed markets as 20% of my total equity exposure in my IPS. This choice was based on much reading and analysis. The OPs argument unconvincingly makes me question my choice. xenochrony Curious to know, do you use VTIAX (which includes emerging markets)...
by cj2018
Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95217

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Reminder… Jack Bogle was … and still is a rebel. [Article] Have you ever wonder why certain things are as they are in your work environment? I often share the story of five monkeys and a banana. An experiment is conducted in which five rhesus monkeys were placed in a cage together with a banana han...
by cj2018
Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95217

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

grayfox wrote:
Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:13 pm
Oh, and by the way, That “Five Monkeys Experiment” Never Happened


What! no way! lol.

Whether the experiment were real or not, didn't the fact it's widespread already proved its point?

Cheers :sharebeer
by cj2018
Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95217

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

HuckFinn, I liked your monkey story. :happy Thanks Abe, I cannot tell you how many times that silly story pops up into my head through so many variable situations in life. HuckFinn - i liked the monkey story you shared too. A good illustration of "herd mentality" or "group thinking". It happens all...
by cj2018
Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is your monthly expense really that stable or in reality, pretty volatile?
Replies: 46
Views: 3421

Re: Is your monthly expense really that stable or in reality, pretty volatile?

Sorry, yes $220 is the total cost - except for the oil change (around $70) which was what i intended to do, also ended up having a transmission fluid change which was close to $100 and an air filter change which was close to $40...after it's all said and done, i realized i probably got ripped off p...
by cj2018
Fri Aug 10, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is your monthly expense really that stable or in reality, pretty volatile?
Replies: 46
Views: 3421

Re: Is your monthly expense really that stable or in reality, pretty volatile?

At some point, meaning later on in life!, you kind of realize that those "one-off's" are actually just routine road bumps. There will always be plumbing issues, you'll replace a roof, you'll replace a car, there might be a huge educational expense, a large tax bill, a loan, a renovation, etc., etc....
by cj2018
Fri Aug 10, 2018 4:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is your monthly expense really that stable or in reality, pretty volatile?
Replies: 46
Views: 3421

Re: Is your monthly expense really that stable or in reality, pretty volatile?

Thanks everyone for sharing thoughts on this topic - very insightful to hear the diverse approaches people use. I def think having a mental yearly budget once you collected some past yearly expenses make more sense given the monthly volatility can more or less be smoothed out. Monthly up/down can be...
by cj2018
Fri Aug 10, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is your monthly expense really that stable or in reality, pretty volatile?
Replies: 46
Views: 3421

Is your monthly expense really that stable or in reality, pretty volatile?

Speaking from personal experiences and interested in hearing what other wiser people think as well. I've never been a big believer in budgeting. I think it's a good yardstick but already knew that future is inherently unpredictable and how can people actually stick to a fixed budget on a monthly bas...
by cj2018
Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is index Capital Gains for inflation happening? Good or bad?
Replies: 1
Views: 298

Is index Capital Gains for inflation happening? Good or bad?

Seems like for tax cut 2.0, there's some push to index stock capital gain for inflation by the current admin which would result in higher cost basis and lower tax bill when calculating capital gain tax (conversely, a higher tax loss that can be harvested) Example: cost basis at $2000 in 2020, sell a...
by cj2018
Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 330
Views: 25322

Re: Invest in Tesla?

I think too much attention being paid to tweets. From lots of people if get my drift. More important info IMHO was Saudi Arabian wealth fund taking substantial stake today. Agreed. Well the oil dollar definitely seems to know how to hedge its own risk right when Model 3 production is looking to pic...
by cj2018
Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 330
Views: 25322

Re: Invest in Tesla?

4nursebee wrote:
Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:10 pm
Trading halted
Man still can't believe Musk is doing it! He really is such a ballar and inspiration to younger generations. One of the most important entrepreneurs since Jobs IMHO.
by cj2018
Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 330
Views: 25322

Re: Invest in Tesla?

jminv wrote:
Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:24 pm
He set an interesting price point to go private at.
And i feel particularly sorry to the short sellers. Man, having to buy back the share at $420 when you sold it at what, $200ish? Man that's harsh.
by cj2018
Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 330
Views: 25322

Re: Invest in Tesla?

Curious who is going to be willing to throw $60 Billion+ at this to allow them to go private. He said he already secured the funding (im guessing he just can't put up with all the BS from media and wall street pundits). My speculation would be a syndicate of major banks to provide the debt instrume...
by cj2018
Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 330
Views: 25322

Re: Invest in Tesla?

How does the process of going private work? Doesn't this have to get voted on? It's called management buyout. In a nutshell, Musk will work with his sponsors (hedge funds, PEs or perhaps a syndicate of banks that put up the debt) and offer let's say 22% premium on the trailing 3 months average of w...
by cj2018
Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 330
Views: 25322

Re: Invest in Tesla?

Possibly going private, at $420 a share: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1026872652290379776 Ruh roh, I guess it wasn't a good idea to short Tesla. :D Ha - you beat me to this! I like the idea of taking Tesla private. Take much of the short-term distraction out of the way as a pubic company and...
by cj2018
Sun Aug 05, 2018 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 26
Views: 2294

Re: Why international?

I was referring to Buffet’s advice to retail investors regarding invest in diversified index fund such as S&P500. What he does via Berkshire’s institutional money is totally different ballgame. Do you have the ability to make controlling acquisition to individual corporations like Buffet? If the an...
by cj2018
Sun Aug 05, 2018 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 26
Views: 2294

Re: Why international?

I looked at VGTSX (Vanguard Total International) vs VFINX (Vanguard S&P500) using the Backtest Portfolio tool and could not find any time period 5 years or longer where International performance exceeded domestic. In fact, International performance was outright lousy (relative to domestic) in all t...
by cj2018
Sun Aug 05, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 26
Views: 2294

Re: Why international?

I looked at VGTSX (Vanguard Total International) vs VFINX (Vanguard S&P500) using the Backtest Portfolio tool and could not find any time period 5 years or longer where International performance exceeded domestic. In fact, International performance was outright lousy (relative to domestic) in all t...
by cj2018
Sat Aug 04, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Making a mistake considering a new job?
Replies: 31
Views: 2215

Re: Making a mistake considering a new job?

Director of public tech company makes like $1M+, and with your 5 min commute.... Hell no, I'm giving that up for some random start up tech company that might IPO or might fold. Stick it for another couple years... The company is very obviously a rocket ship and not a random startup. In fact, they'r...
by cj2018
Thu Aug 02, 2018 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will dividend spending only portfolio last forever ?
Replies: 90
Views: 6148

Re: Will dividend spending only portfolio last forever ?

If somebody is able to plan their expenses in retirement to only spend dividends , then wouldn’t that portfolio last forever?(except for truly extreme circumstances). I know that the emphasis on this forum is on total returns, but dividend spending only maybe a way to enforce discipline on spending...
by cj2018
Thu Aug 02, 2018 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: FYI: Goldman Mid-Year Outlook
Replies: 4
Views: 741

Re: FYI: Goldman Mid-Year Outlook

Bedtime reading, https://assets.realclear.com/files/2018/07/972_GS.pdf Thanks for sharing - curious if GS outlook is exclusive to its IMD clients or open to public as well. " We assign a 10% probability to a recession in the US in the next 12 months, and we do not believe that the flattening of the...
by cj2018
Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 330
Views: 25322

Re: Invest in Tesla?

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:41 pm
. . . Not just up, up almost 13% as I post this. I’m glad that I just buy the car and don’t sell or buy the stock.
And how you liking your Tesla car sir? :happy
by cj2018
Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Files for Four Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER)
Replies: 753
Views: 73601

Re: Fidelity Files for two Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER total stock and total international mutual funds)

Remember, no one can serve 2 masters! Fidelity will make you pay one way or another. Someone will pay but it is not necessarily you. It is like credit card rewards, someone is subsidizing you if you pay in full every month. I know the point you are trying to make, but I'd say comparing investor to ...
by cj2018
Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Files for Four Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER)
Replies: 753
Views: 73601

Re: Fidelity Files for two Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER total stock and total international mutual funds)

Forgive me if someone else already raised this point, and forgive me if I am wrong - but I feel like I need to call BS. These are fund of funds - aka its a feeder fund that simply invest in underlying fidelity funds, funds that carry an expense ratio. So although the fund you are investing in may n...
by cj2018
Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Files for Four Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER)
Replies: 753
Views: 73601

Re: Fidelity Files for two Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER total stock and total international mutual funds)

Inertia is pretty powerful. Time will tell, but I'm not going to jump for such little gain. Too lazy. I can afford to wait and see, and I believe I am not alone. Might be a wonderful opportunity, might not be. I doubt seriously that Vanguard's management team is shaking in their boots over this. Go...
by cj2018
Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 330
Views: 25322

Re: Invest in Tesla?

Honda $61B Clarity has 89 mile rang. Toy car. Clarity Hybrid is EXACTLY the type of car I'd want. All-electric for 50 miles, then kicks on the gas engine for longer drives. Fits ALL purposes. Electric only commute, but still able to drive ANYWHERE, including scenic roads, and small highways, not ju...
by cj2018
Tue Jul 31, 2018 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOOM!!!!! Morgan Stanley warns
Replies: 41
Views: 4939

Re: DOOM!!!!! Morgan Stanley warns

Marketwatch --- garbage. CNBC --- garbage. Bloomberg -- garbage. recycled garbage day in and day out. One article will talk about doom while another talks about how rosy things will be. Wash, rinse, and repeat. Some of these postings happen multiple times a day. Oh and these firms with their predic...
by cj2018
Tue Jul 31, 2018 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOOM!!!!! Morgan Stanley warns
Replies: 41
Views: 4939

Re: DOOM!!!!! Morgan Stanley warns

As you can see, those big headlines can be scary to many, but of course, not to seasoned Bogleheads. :wink: I'm beginning to think this is all planned by the insiders. Once they have driven the market up and collected profits, they want to reverse the cycle, drive the market down and they buy in ag...
by cj2018
Tue Jul 31, 2018 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So go the FAANG, so goes the market?
Replies: 41
Views: 4661

Re: So go the FAANG, so goes the market?

The fab five FAANG are the market right now and are they headed down? It's worrisome that so few stocks seem to be leveraging the market right now. What do you think? Only people who should be panicked about FAANG are people who have all their stocks in FAANG. I presume no Bogleheads ever bought in...
by cj2018
Mon Jul 30, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Joint Ownership of home with second wife
Replies: 184
Views: 12634

Re: Joint Ownership of home with second wife

Something I'm very good at is determining if a marriage is going to work out or not. Don't get married. Sorry man. Unfortunately, I agree with DanMahowny on this one :( I know this is not what you want to hear or looking for, but just by OP’s story and description so far, your future wife will be c...
by cj2018
Thu Jul 26, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 11236

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

Pajamas wrote:
Thu Jul 26, 2018 1:50 pm
I wouldn't consider a 20% drop freefall. Actually looks fairly stable so far today, considering.
I think it more has to do with FB's huge market cap and 20% drop on $600B certainly breaks some record i presume.