Search found 602 matches

by typical.investor
Sun Mar 24, 2019 12:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 16
Views: 533

Re: Market timers thread

So question: What is your plan? When do you plan to get back into equities? Not getting out, but am thinking about Strategic Rebalancing if markets fall a great degree. Or perhaps, more likely, using such a strategy in retirement when sequence of return risk is a threat. ABSTRACT A mechanical rebal...
by typical.investor
Sun Mar 24, 2019 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any believers in the dollar milkshake theory?
Replies: 3
Views: 591

Re: Any believers in the dollar milkshake theory?

According to Brent Johnson's dollar milkshake theory, the dollar is going to get a lot stronger, interest rates are going much higher, bonds will suffer, and stocks and gold will both perform well. https://www.realvision.com/tv/shows/the-expert-view/videos/the-dollar-milkshake-theory Does anyone ha...
by typical.investor
Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why are there so many ETF prices? By Vanguard
Replies: 17
Views: 906

Re: why are there so many ETF prices? By Vanguard

There must be some degree of downside? Let’s say you’re wanting to buy an ETF share. Ask price is $100. You place a limit order at $100.01. But in the time you take to place the order, the ask rises to $100.02 and continues to rise. It continues to rise to $100.10. You either decide to wait and hop...
by typical.investor
Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Switch Advisor account to self-managed Vanguard or Schwab?
Replies: 10
Views: 996

Re: Switch Advisor account to self-managed Vanguard or Schwab?

4. If I choose self-managed Schwab accounts, should I use Schwab total market index mutual funds or Vanguard index ETFs? Either way is fantastic. I use mostly Schwab ETFs myself. Schwab breaks their international into three funds - Intl large developed, Intl small developed and emerging. To see how...
by typical.investor
Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it time to sell your stocks to reset your basis?
Replies: 25
Views: 1412

Re: Is it time to sell your stocks to reset your basis?

I am seriously thinking of selling all stocks and rebuying after wash sale rules just to reset my basis - since I would pay only 15% right now. If you are not selling at a loss, there is no need to wait before buying back. Wash sale period requirement are only in effect if you are selling at a loss...
by typical.investor
Sat Mar 23, 2019 1:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wealthfront Cash: 2.24% APY, $1M FDIC insurance
Replies: 4
Views: 607

Re: Wealthfront Cash: 2.24% APY, $1M FDIC insurance

https://www.wealthfront.com/cash Looks like a great fit for an emergency fund! I would have three concerns: 1) even after I transfer money to wealthfront, it isn't FDIC insured until it actually reaches their partner banks. Not sure about the return trip. 2) you could be below wealthfront's $1M lim...
by typical.investor
Fri Mar 22, 2019 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why past performance does not predict future?
Replies: 35
Views: 1621

Re: Why past performance does not predict future?

When it comes to stocks or stock market, why is it said that past performance does not predict future performance? Whereas in most areas of life, that does appear to be the case: - In sports, the performance is not random. Good players tend to perform good. I disagree. Have a look at how efficient ...
by typical.investor
Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Longer Expansions Lead to More Severe Recessions?
Replies: 6
Views: 932

Do Longer Expansions Lead to More Severe Recessions?

We find clear evidence ...that... deeper recessions are often followed by stronger recoveries, while longer and stronger expansions are not followed by deeper recessions. So my take is to really ignore the doom about what will happen after this long expansion. https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/newsro...
by typical.investor
Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: exotic ETFs
Replies: 16
Views: 946

Re: exotic ETFs

By far the most absurd ETF premise, in my opinion: https://www.etf.com/MAGA ROTFL. Their AUM is just 31.25 M so they must not be doing something right. Compare that with DSI, with 1.35 B AUM. Looks like they don't invest in tech stocks, instead are mostly energy and companies like autozone etc. Wha...
by typical.investor
Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:47 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: How to avoid middleman bank charges when wiring money into the US?
Replies: 10
Views: 568

Re: How to avoid middleman bank charges when wiring money into the US?

It makes me want to use TransferWise but their limits of transferring into the US from where I need to transfer from are only 10k. This limit ? Of course, only the US has this silly restriction. No similar limit for any other country. TransferWise do however say that " after these amounts ($10k per...
by typical.investor
Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding using treasury futures for leverage to implement risk parity
Replies: 81
Views: 4082

Re: Understanding using treasury futures for leverage to implement risk parity

Anyone considering the use of futures to make a leveraged bet on bonds should ask if there is still a term premium. In a recent thread I pointed to research saying the term premium is currently negative. If that is true it's probably because bond investors are willing to accept slightly negative ex...
by typical.investor
Fri Mar 22, 2019 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: My fee's are too [darn] high!
Replies: 31
Views: 3169

Re: My fee's are too [darn] high!

Prepping my letter to my current FA to part ways, and need to set up accounts to transfer assets to. I have accounts w/ Schwab and love their site and customer service, but have read great things about Fidelity here as well. Just taking the temp here to see if people put all their eggs in one baske...
by typical.investor
Fri Mar 22, 2019 8:40 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: How to avoid middleman bank charges when wiring money into the US?
Replies: 10
Views: 568

Re: How to avoid middleman bank charges when wiring money into the US?

I don’t know if it can be avoided.

It makes me want to use TransferWise but their limits of transferring into the US from where I need to transfer from are only 10k.
by typical.investor
Fri Mar 22, 2019 8:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: My fee's are too [darn] high!
Replies: 31
Views: 3169

Re: My fee's are too [darn] high!

Prepping my letter to my current FA to part ways, and need to set up accounts to transfer assets to. I have accounts w/ Schwab and love their site and customer service, but have read great things about Fidelity here as well. Just taking the temp here to see if people put all their eggs in one baske...
by typical.investor
Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to use 100K: pay off rental or buy CDs?
Replies: 17
Views: 1158

Re: Best way to use 100K: pay off rental or buy CDs?

Hello all, Asking for my mom. She has several rental properties and recently has access to 100 K. She would like to put the money somewhere for two years (planning to retire in 2 yrs). She was looking for a 5% return but I advised that the market isn't a good place to keep money for a short term. W...
by typical.investor
Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Invest Money for House Down Payment in 5 Years
Replies: 25
Views: 1353

Re: Invest Money for House Down Payment in 5 Years

I plan on setting aside between $25,000 - $30,000 each year for the next 5 years for a house down payment. Currently, I've been setting this aside in a 2.0% APY money market account through Capital One. I've been debating on whether I should put it in a diversified taxable portfolio to get a potent...
by typical.investor
Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:06 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: US estate tax for joint accounts - how to manage?
Replies: 2
Views: 238

Re: US estate tax for joint accounts - how to manage?

I live in Hong Kong and not a US resident. I was thinking that I would create a joint account with my spouse with a brokerage here (such as Interactive or TD Ameritrade), buy US stocks/ETFs. If either of us dies, then the other person can quickly sell the assets and take out the money before we are...
by typical.investor
Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why The Size Premium Should Persist
Replies: 62
Views: 3614

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why The Size Premium Should Persist

https://alphaarchitect.com/2019/03/20/why-the-size-premium-should-persist/ This is a great article. As the title suggests, Larry specifically reviews reasons to expect size premium to persist in the future. More generally though, he covers a lot of important ground: why risk factor premiums should ...
by typical.investor
Thu Mar 21, 2019 12:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to use 100K: pay off rental or buy CDs?
Replies: 17
Views: 1158

Re: Best way to use 100K: pay off rental or buy CDs?

Hello all, Asking for my mom. She has several rental properties and recently has access to 100 K. She would like to put the money somewhere for two years (planning to retire in 2 yrs). She was looking for a 5% return but I advised that the market isn't a good place to keep money for a short term. W...
by typical.investor
Wed Mar 20, 2019 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why The Size Premium Should Persist
Replies: 62
Views: 3614

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why The Size Premium Should Persist

The article gives a long list of the disadvantages of small companies. These disadvantages mean greater risk, which it is implied should incur higher eventual premium. The premium is not well quantified but I think the general assumption is that over very long time periods, you should average a few...
by typical.investor
Wed Mar 20, 2019 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why The Size Premium Should Persist
Replies: 62
Views: 3614

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why The Size Premium Should Persist

https://alphaarchitect.com/2019/03/20/why-the-size-premium-should-persist/ This is a great article. As the title suggests, Larry specifically reviews reasons to expect size premium to persist in the future. More generally though, he covers a lot of important ground: why risk factor premiums should ...
by typical.investor
Wed Mar 20, 2019 9:57 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Calling it top, what to invest in Hong Kong?
Replies: 3
Views: 330

Re: Calling it top, what to invest in Hong Kong?

Hong Kong could go irrationally higher for a few more years, or not. Set an AA and keep to it. If HK stocks continue up and exceed your allocation, rebalance. If they drop and are below it, rebalance. As mentioned, not everything is at a high. Take out the need to "call the top" and "call time to ge...
by typical.investor
Wed Mar 20, 2019 9:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When is it time for a new smartphone?
Replies: 66
Views: 3713

Re: When is it time for a new smartphone?

If you can live with the pink line, get the battery replaced. iPhones run $29-$49 so can't imagine the galaxy being that much more.

If you can't live with the pink line, I don't think it makes sense to pay for screen replacement.
by typical.investor
Wed Mar 20, 2019 9:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Inheritance from Non US person
Replies: 4
Views: 510

Re: Early Inheritance from Non US person

This is a very complicated area of tax law. Seeking professional help is warranted. Assuming your parents are non-US persons you must fill out a form 3520 to report to the IRS the gift received if more than $100,000 USD. No tax is due for a gift received including foreign gifts. This is all depende...
by typical.investor
Wed Mar 20, 2019 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: My fee's are too [darn] high!
Replies: 31
Views: 3169

Re: My fee's are too [darn] high!

I'm not a boglehead purist by any means, but I've never understood why some financial advisors buy different tickers of the same fund. Sure, they may be marginally different, but the returns are the same. It's like owning iEFA, VEA and VWO, EEM and VOO, SPY, etc. Why don't own just one? And why buy...
by typical.investor
Wed Mar 20, 2019 3:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Input Needed on Dividend Portfolio
Replies: 25
Views: 1428

Re: Input Needed on Dividend Portfolio

CEFs of Muni-Bonds (zero tax) I like XMPT which is an ETF that follows the S-Network Municipal Bond Closed-End Fund Index (CEFMXTR). It gives a higher allocation to CEFs with a wider discount. The ER is mostly the cost of the underlying CEFs (and leverage) and then Van Ecks 0.40% management fee whi...
by typical.investor
Wed Mar 20, 2019 1:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New carry-on policy at United Airlines?
Replies: 47
Views: 3404

Re: New carry-on policy at United Airlines?

Was it a smaller plane? United Express flights are served by regional partner carriers using smaller aircraft than United's mainline fleet. Aircraft in the United Express fleet generally have less room in the overhead bins for carry-on baggage, and in most cases roller bags and other larger carry-on...
by typical.investor
Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: My fee's are too [darn] high!
Replies: 31
Views: 3169

Re: My fee's are too [darn] high!

I may move my taxable account into a low cost robo/advisory just to help get the portfolio streamlined a bit better. I've been looking at SigFig as I can hold the money in my Schwab account and they will just act as the fiduciary on that account for 0.25% w/ the first 10k managed free. Thank you fo...
by typical.investor
Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do you need international stock in your asset allocation?
Replies: 10
Views: 1591

Re: Do you need international stock in your asset allocation?

Does anyone "need" to be a total market investor? No. Are there theoretical advantages? Yes. Will those advantages always show in every holding period? No.

Which 5? Depends where it's at, but I'd want to include something to cover all corners of the equities market plus safe fixed income.
by typical.investor
Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?
Replies: 84
Views: 2690

Re: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?

https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGGEB.pdf Seriously? Your US / ex-US allocation is a PDF? Why would an investor choose their US:international allocation based on opinions of anonymous posters on a website? Wouldn't you generally want to have some reasoning behind the decision? You're going to fi...
by typical.investor
Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Growth in a Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 11
Views: 630

Re: International Growth in a Three-Fund Portfolio

I am somewhat of a newbie trying to follow the three-fund portfolio strategy. One thing I am trying to wrap my head around involves international investments. Staying within the Vanguard fund family, the recommendation is to invest in Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund (VTIAX). Looking a...
by typical.investor
Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AQR report on expected returns in 5-10 years
Replies: 10
Views: 815

Re: AQR report on expected returns in 5-10 years

Tycoon wrote:
Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:35 am
How does AQR benefit from telling me this? What actions do they hope I take? Benevolence?
Their marketing pitch is on p10. There are products available which they estimate will do better. Note: you need a well crafted product. Inferior ones won’t return nearly as much.
by typical.investor
Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?
Replies: 84
Views: 2690

Re: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?

Seriously? Your US / ex-US allocation is a PDF?
by typical.investor
Tue Mar 19, 2019 6:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AQR report on expected returns in 5-10 years
Replies: 10
Views: 815

Re: AQR report on expected returns in 5-10 years

Has anyone read this report? Seems interesting. Sobering conclusions on equity, bond returns. Here are their 2014 predictions along with the actual returns up to the end of January. https://i.imgur.com/UDQdWjl.png Their predictions are for "5-10 years" and it has been 5 years and 1 month since then...
by typical.investor
Tue Mar 19, 2019 12:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AQR report on expected returns in 5-10 years
Replies: 10
Views: 815

Re: AQR report on expected returns in 5-10 years

The expected real return of the traditional U.S. 60/40 portfolio is 2.9%, compared to a long-term average of 5% (since 1900)
Ex-US came in around 5% assuming no change in valuations towards a historical mean.
by typical.investor
Mon Mar 18, 2019 7:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?
Replies: 84
Views: 2690

Re: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?

55 US
28 Dev Intl
17 EM
by typical.investor
Mon Mar 18, 2019 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why VEA is up 11.3%, VWO 11.7%, while VXUS which supposed to be their combo is up only 10.9%?
Replies: 3
Views: 531

Re: Why VEA is up 11.3%, VWO 11.7%, while VXUS which supposed to be their combo is up only 10.9%?

Are you sure VWO and VXUS have the same emerging exposure?

I understood VWO to include Chinese-A shares, but that VXUS didn't.

It used to be like that I believe anyway.
by typical.investor
Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:38 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Index futures instead of etf to avoid withholding tax
Replies: 36
Views: 1880

Re: Index futures instead of etf to avoid withholding tax

Thanks for the links and videos, very useful! So no 30% to the state and no 70% to you. Dividens paid are not included in the e-mini future value? Expected dividends are baked into the price. If futures investors were losing the dividend, it would make sense to go long the S&P and short the future....
by typical.investor
Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:55 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Index futures instead of etf to avoid withholding tax
Replies: 36
Views: 1880

Re: Index futures instead of etf to avoid withholding tax

I don't think you are borrowing from your broker. If I short with an e-mini, and you go long, and the market drops every day for a week, money will go into my account after each day. Where does that money come from? Why should the person on the other side of the trade have to wait for settlement? A...
by typical.investor
Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:26 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Index futures instead of etf to avoid withholding tax
Replies: 36
Views: 1880

Re: Index futures instead of etf to avoid withholding tax

Bonds works for margin. For T-Bonds the margin requirements are only 1% for duration less than 6 months and 2% for 1 year. Yes I realize a bond fund could loose value, but a t-bond of short expiry will not, or it doesn't matter if you can hold it to expiry. Let's take a look for your example. You b...
by typical.investor
Sun Mar 17, 2019 11:22 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Index futures instead of etf to avoid withholding tax
Replies: 36
Views: 1880

Re: Index futures instead of etf to avoid withholding tax

Ok, as an example, the e-mini 500 seems to equal around $140,000 of stock value. So say I have $140,000 I'd like to either buy etf's for or futures. Then I could buy bonds for $125,000 or so (and get 2.4% interest), and then buy one e-mini future that will resemble the movements of $140,000 in a sp...
by typical.investor
Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Keep VTEB vs. Switch to CA Muni even w/cap gain
Replies: 16
Views: 1076

Re: Keep VTEB vs. Switch to CA Muni even w/cap gain

This is not a fair comparison. VCTXX (CA Money Market) is less risky than VTEB (Tax-Exempt Bond Index). A CA fund with the same risk as VTEB would have the same 2.40% yield on Admiral shares; this would be somewhere between the CA intermediate-term (2.11%) and long-term (2.59%). So, at the same ris...
by typical.investor
Thu Mar 14, 2019 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When VG REALLY Messes Up - How Do You Elevate/Correct?
Replies: 5
Views: 1162

Re: When VG REALLY Messes Up - How Do You Elevate/Correct?

There is also a dispute resolution team that can see a record of every mouse click you made. It takes some time though.
by typical.investor
Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 1381
Views: 73643

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Certainly curious to hear Hedge's thoughts. The more I look at 1955-1970ish (interest rates climbing to 7%) the more I wonder if that could be us next. And what evidence do you have for this prediction, other than staring at a chart and imagining where the line might go next? Evidence to the contra...
by typical.investor
Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you have belief?
Replies: 17
Views: 1248

Re: Do you have belief?

They say that successful tennis players have a belief in themselves that when they walk on the court they expect to do well...to win. Do you have belief in your investment knowledge and skills, do you feel that no matter what happens, you will be successful? Of course, all I touch is gold! We belie...
by typical.investor
Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: U.S. Expats - What To Be Aware Of Tax Wise
Replies: 17
Views: 1436

Re: U.S. Expats - What To Be Aware Of Tax Wise

Will you be paying to carry Medicare part B?

Would there be a penalty if you don’t and return to the US, or are you excluded?
by typical.investor
Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Keep VTEB vs. Switch to CA Muni even w/cap gain
Replies: 16
Views: 1076

Re: Keep VTEB vs. Switch to CA Muni even w/cap gain

Could you use short term losses to offset the short term gains? Anything you could sell? Emerging? No loss to harvest at the moment. I think Wealthfront has harvested about $600 in losses this year. But I'd like to have at least $3,000 in cap loss every year, so I can offset my ordinary income. I m...
by typical.investor
Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Keep VTEB vs. Switch to CA Muni even w/cap gain
Replies: 16
Views: 1076

Re: Keep VTEB vs. Switch to CA Muni even w/cap gain

Could you use short term losses to offset the short term gains? Anything you could sell? Emerging?
by typical.investor
Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:54 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Index futures instead of etf to avoid withholding tax
Replies: 36
Views: 1880

Re: Index futures instead of etf to avoid withholding tax

As I'm reading more about futures and the e-mini 500, I can't see how this should be much different or more risky compared to buying the ETFs, if you hold the future without margin. So if you have t-bonds for the full amount to cover the future, then it seems to be very similar to holding the ETF. ...
by typical.investor
Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:44 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Buying individual stocks in Germany (US Expat)
Replies: 11
Views: 792

Re: Buying individual stocks in Germany (US Expat)

Did you try the Schwab International One account? It gives access to ETFs at Schwab and seems available to German residents. I use it with no complaints. https://international.schwab.com/public/international/nn/acct_open_intro.html Hi Typical, Does Schwab deal with the MIFID PRIIPs issue? I use IB,...