Search found 287 matches
- Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:42 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Is Disney the most tempting value stock?
- Replies: 242
- Views: 16933
Re: Is Disney the most tempting value stock?
I thought Disney was undervalued at the start of the pandemic and really thought about buying but decided against individual stocks, sort of regret that now lol
- Sat Feb 20, 2021 9:07 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Some thoughts for those afraid of ATH [All Time High]
- Replies: 109
- Views: 9907
Re: Some thoughts for those afraid of ATH [All Time High]
The Nikkei peaked at an intra-day high of 38,957.44 on December 29, 1989. Three decades later it hasn't regained that high. So should we be assuming each ATH will not be seen again for three decades? I guess I never understand the relevance of the Japan reference. We could also cite the peaks of th...
- Fri Feb 12, 2021 6:58 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: What happens if you retire using the 4% rule and the market crashes 40%+ the next week
- Replies: 113
- Views: 8719
What happens if you retire using the 4% rule and the market crashes 40%+ the next week
Or within the next few months, would you base your 4% rate off the original amount or would you use the 40% less, or somewhere in between?
- Wed Feb 03, 2021 6:41 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Does the 4% rule take tax, fees etc into account?
- Replies: 362
- Views: 12800
Re: Does the 4% rule take tax, fees etc into account?
We need to replace the 4% rule with the 3% rule, because 4% is much more likely to fail over the next 30 years than it used to be. I hate it when people say this without context. But at least you didn't go to 2%. If you are meaning that we are now facing the worst 30 years in recorded(*) history, t...
- Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:49 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Does the 4% rule take tax, fees etc into account?
- Replies: 362
- Views: 12800
Does the 4% rule take tax, fees etc into account?
Or is it not taken into account since these vary from person to person?
- Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:57 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
- Replies: 4142
- Views: 201572
Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?
So an internet group identifies two companies sold >100% short. GameStop is one: GME. Ryan Cohen from Chewy comes in as an activist and changes the narrative. The internet group works as a hive mind to burn the shorts down to a parabolic stock rise using buy and hold until squeeze. Anyone joining i...
- Sun Jan 24, 2021 5:48 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: ‘Frogs in boiling water’: Urgent warning for 50% market drop
- Replies: 133
- Views: 19028
‘Frogs in boiling water’: Urgent warning for 50% market drop
Billionaire Seth Klarman — whose letters to clients of his Boston-based fund Baupost Group are closely read on Wall Street — said the Fed’s pandemic-fueled policies of keeping rates close to zero have not stimulated the economy but instead sent the market flying beyond reason and made investors reck...
- Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:13 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Pension vs Lump Sum?
- Replies: 11
- Views: 1276
Re: Pension vs Lump Sum?
Just trying to do the calculations on a pension vs a lump sum, say for e.g a lump sum is 100k or an inflation adjusted pension of 10k (in 30 years) Using an inflation adjusted 7% return on the lump sum for 30 years you would end up with 800k, which when using the 4% rule would give you 32k/ year. S...
- Sat Jan 23, 2021 10:50 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Pension vs Lump Sum?
- Replies: 11
- Views: 1276
Re: Pension vs Lump Sum?
Just trying to do the calculations on a pension vs a lump sum, say for e.g a lump sum is 100k or an inflation adjusted pension of 10k (in 30 years) Using an inflation adjusted 7% return on the lump sum for 30 years you would end up with 800k, which when using the 4% rule would give you 32k/ year. S...
- Sat Jan 23, 2021 10:11 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Pension vs Lump Sum?
- Replies: 11
- Views: 1276
Pension vs Lump Sum?
Just trying to do the calculations on a pension vs a lump sum, say for e.g a lump sum is 100k or an inflation adjusted pension of 10k (in 30 years) Using an inflation adjusted 7% return on the lump sum for 30 years you would end up with 800k, which when using the 4% rule would give you 32k/ year. So...
- Wed Jan 20, 2021 8:30 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Any Bogleheads hold/ held Berkshire Hathaway Shares?
- Replies: 17
- Views: 1613
Any Bogleheads hold/ held Berkshire Hathaway Shares?
Outside of the index. If so why and how have they fared for you?
- Fri Jan 15, 2021 7:53 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 2021 Bogleheads Contest Charts
- Replies: 9
- Views: 542
Re: 2021 Bogleheads Contest Charts
Nice, interesting to see how many were bullish after the 09' crash
- Fri Jan 15, 2021 6:14 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: What do you use for inflation? [for retirement planning]
- Replies: 54
- Views: 4149
Re: What do you use for inflation?
Thanks for all the replies. I'm starting to agree with the later posts of 0%. I see a lot of early responders using the 3-4% standard inflation rates. To me the standard inflation rate includes a lot of things that don't apply, at least to me. For instance, it's 33% based on housing costs, but I ow...
- Fri Jan 15, 2021 5:54 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Sequence Risk: is it really a big deal?
- Replies: 125
- Views: 16482
Re: Sequence Risk: is it really a big deal?
I don't really understand sequence of returns risk, e.g losing 50% of portfolio value is just as bad no matter where in the sequence it happens
- Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:58 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Munger warns of lost decade for investing (2021-2031)
- Replies: 71
- Views: 9985
Re: Munger warns of lost decade for investing (2021-2031)
Dude just said real returns will be worse. That's an easy prediction to make. It isn't guaranteed, but earnings have a bunch of catchup needed if we wanted to sustain the whole 7% real per year thing. The last ten years 12/31/2010 - 12/31/2020 had a 12.7% 'real' CAGR. Even "average" histo...
- Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:54 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Munger warns of lost decade for investing (2021-2031)
- Replies: 71
- Views: 9985
Re: Munger warns of lost decade for investing (2021-2031)
Dude just said real returns will be worse. That's an easy prediction to make. It isn't guaranteed, but earnings have a bunch of catchup needed if we wanted to sustain the whole 7% real per year thing. The last ten years 12/31/2010 - 12/31/2020 had a 12.7% 'real' CAGR. Even "average" histo...
- Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:20 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Munger warns of lost decade for investing (2021-2031)
- Replies: 71
- Views: 9985
- Thu Jan 07, 2021 3:51 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest
- Replies: 209
- Views: 13289
Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest
Value Investors Club
Long:
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY
Micron MU
Seritage Growth Properties SRG
Short:
BJ'S RESTAURANTS INC BJRI
OWENS & MINOR INC OMI
BED BATH & BEYOND INC BBBY
Long:
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY
Micron MU
Seritage Growth Properties SRG
Short:
BJ'S RESTAURANTS INC BJRI
OWENS & MINOR INC OMI
BED BATH & BEYOND INC BBBY
- Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:36 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: What is the Worst Financial Decision/Mistake You Have Made?
- Replies: 230
- Views: 18400
Re: What is the Worst Financial Decision/Mistake You Have Made?
I wish I had invested in the Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund back in 1976. I bought a house to rent out in 1978 and paid $32,000 for it. That house is probably worth around a $100k now plus I've collected rents all through the years. If I had invested that $32k in the S&P 500 Index fund and rei...
- Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:30 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Would it be worth having a small portion of your portfolio in a leveraged index?
- Replies: 24
- Views: 1671
Re: Would it be worth having a small portion of your portfolio in a leveraged index?
I'm surprised no one mentioned this yet - if you hold daily-rebalanced leveraged assets, volatility decay will destroy your holdings in the long term. This is a whole separate problem than just using leverage (investing borrowed money). That's a good point, I guess there's nothing similiar for hold...
- Sun Jan 03, 2021 9:12 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Would it be worth having a small portion of your portfolio in a leveraged index?
- Replies: 24
- Views: 1671
Re: Would it be worth having a small portion of your portfolio in a leveraged index?
Have read that, however i'm just talking about 10% of your portolio being leveraged not 100%
- Sun Jan 03, 2021 8:38 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Would it be worth having a small portion of your portfolio in a leveraged index?
- Replies: 24
- Views: 1671
Would it be worth having a small portion of your portfolio in a leveraged index?
Is it worth having a portion of a long term portfolio (say 10%) in a leveraged index such as UPRO? Or would this be substantially increasing the risk profile and the risks outweigh the benefits? What effect would it have on the 4% rule etc?
- Sat Jan 02, 2021 2:39 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest
- Replies: 638
- Views: 15265
- Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:22 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 2020 Hedge Fund contest
- Replies: 306
- Views: 27002
Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest
Who won the contest and what was the % gain?
- Mon Dec 28, 2020 11:25 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: What is real inflation?
- Replies: 74
- Views: 4772
Re: What is real inflation?
Yeah that's a good pointqwertyjazz wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 11:06 pm OP I wonder if you are talking about personal rate of inflation. All the inflation indices are about ‘the average person.’ Each person is unique though and has unique things they buy. So their personal inflation varies from any index. But no one can tract that.
- Mon Dec 28, 2020 11:24 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: What is real inflation?
- Replies: 74
- Views: 4772
Re: What is real inflation?
If your investments make 9% and inflation is 3% that would make real return 6% but if your cost of housing is up 10% that makes a much bigger difference than the price of some other commodity. Sure. If you bought a house this year, you were negatively impacted by the rise in home prices. Unless you...
- Mon Dec 28, 2020 10:48 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Mohnish Pabrai 2021 Free Lunch Portfolio
- Replies: 10
- Views: 1197
Mohnish Pabrai 2021 Free Lunch Portfolio
http://www.chaiwithpabrai.com/blog/2021 ... -portfolio
Is it worth putting a portion of investment into something like this with the potential to outperform the index?
Is it worth putting a portion of investment into something like this with the potential to outperform the index?
- Mon Dec 28, 2020 2:41 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: What is real inflation?
- Replies: 74
- Views: 4772
What is real inflation?
Inflation seems to average around 3% depending where you live etc. But how is the overall figure attained. For example if house prices are up 10% and other things such as petrol prices etc bring the average down to 3% this doesn't make sense to me since the housing prices have a much larger effect o...
- Tue Dec 22, 2020 11:59 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Projector to use as TV?
- Replies: 11
- Views: 620
Projector to use as TV?
Just looking for a projector to replace my tv, any recommendations? I don't know too much about projectors so not sure what would be suitable, short throw, long throw, which brands etc?
- Mon Dec 21, 2020 1:21 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Is programming still a valuable skill to learn?
- Replies: 250
- Views: 20714
Re: Is programming still a valuable skill to learn?
The difference between output from a programmer or a software developer is the difference between a grocery list and a novel. Both are just words, right? I am a full stack Java web developer and have worked in software my entire life. I have loved it. I have constantly learned new things and upgrad...
- Sun Dec 20, 2020 1:03 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Is programming still a valuable skill to learn?
- Replies: 250
- Views: 20714
Re: Is programming still a valuable skill to learn?
Came across this which sort of makes it look like programming is oversaturated; e.g some people mentioning they have over 20+ yrs exp and have applied for 100's of jobs without any interviews: https://www.quora.com/With-so-many-people-trying-out-coding-why-is-there-still-a-big-shortage-of-software-e...
- Sat Dec 19, 2020 1:32 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
- Replies: 799
- Views: 121430
Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Any updates? Using the same 60/40 AA as the OP, with stocks split 50/50 between U.S. and ex-U.S., our year 2000 retirees would, as of the end of November, have had an inflation-adjusted $683,409 after 20 years of withdrawals and experiencing three bear markets, including two in the first critical d...
- Fri Dec 04, 2020 7:34 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
- Replies: 799
- Views: 121430
- Fri Dec 04, 2020 5:55 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Is programming still a valuable skill to learn?
- Replies: 250
- Views: 20714
Re: Is programming still a valuable skill to learn?
I work for a company in the tier below the FANGs (with comparable compensation) and almost all the senior technical leadership in my department is >40. https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/median-age-labor-force.htm Median age of the labor force, by sex, race, and ethnicity 41.9 https://www.businessinsid...
- Fri Dec 04, 2020 2:57 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Best heating method for house without lowering humidity?
- Replies: 56
- Views: 3975
Re: Best heating method for house without lowering humidity?
The problem is your body - especially your nose and mouth response to the RELATIVE humidity - which drives the evaporation rate of your mucous membranes. The lb water vs lb of air remains constant as temperature increases (in this example, look at the y axis and see there is about .006 lb water/lb ...
- Thu Dec 03, 2020 9:37 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Best heating method for house without lowering humidity?
- Replies: 56
- Views: 3975
Re: Best heating method for house without lowering humidity?
Thanks for the replies, I've seen hydronic heaters marketed as being better for dry areas etc, is it just a sales pitch?
- Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:25 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Best heating method for house without lowering humidity?
- Replies: 56
- Views: 3975
Best heating method for house without lowering humidity?
Just wondering what is the best way to heat a house without lowering the humidity, as I live in a low humidity area I would like to raise or atleast maintain the humidity, what would be the best options e.g ducted heating, reverse cycle heating, hydronic heating, gas etc? I imagine hydronic is proba...
- Fri Nov 20, 2020 12:05 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Herman miller desk?
- Replies: 9
- Views: 1208
Herman miller desk?
I know Herman Miller Chairs have a good reputation, but what about desks, are they really worth the price as well?
- Tue Nov 10, 2020 5:20 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: For those concerned about International Stocks...
- Replies: 236
- Views: 25593
Re: Bogle on Global Investing
Bogleheads: There is much speculation and misinformation about why Mr. Bogle believed that international investing is not necessary. In his book, "Common Sense on Mutual Funds -- Second Edition, " he devotes 25 pages explaining his reasons. This is a short summary: * "We have, at lea...
- Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:27 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: How on earth can overweighting US stock over international stock possibly be considered Boglehead?
- Replies: 253
- Views: 16139
Re: How on earth can overweighting US stock over international stock possibly be considered Boglehead?
Can we at least agree that for people from outside the US (who number 7 billion and counting) all-world market weight is the default choice? :D I’m outside the US, and only invest US I don’t invest all-word cuz Bogle or Buffett never said I should Also it’s irrational to say Bogle and Buffett only ...
- Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:12 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: How on earth can overweighting US stock over international stock possibly be considered Boglehead?
- Replies: 253
- Views: 16139
Re: How on earth can overweighting US stock over international stock possibly be considered Boglehead?
What about people who do not live in the U.S or are not from the U.S should they still buy all U.S?
- Sat Nov 07, 2020 3:13 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: How on earth can overweighting US stock over international stock possibly be considered Boglehead?
- Replies: 253
- Views: 16139
Re: How on earth can overweighting US stock over international stock possibly be considered Boglehead?
I have an international allocation, but as noted (and as subscribed to by Jack Bogle) many U.S. stocks have international exposure. Of note... July 30, 2020 — Apple today announced financial results for its fiscal 2020 third quarter ended June 27, 2020. The Company posted quarterly revenue of $59.7...
- Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:04 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Life won't go back to normal even with a vaccine
- Replies: 8
- Views: 2351
Re: Life won't go back to normal even with a vaccine
Anybody with any sense has already figured that out, and everything that can possibly be said about Covid has already been said 1000 times. TINA, zero cost of capital, "stimulus hopes". The market is as high as it is because people think it'll be higher, I guess. Market is high, because F...
- Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:04 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Life won't go back to normal even with a vaccine
- Replies: 8
- Views: 2351
Life won't go back to normal even with a vaccine
Experts caution against expectations of a return to normal with vaccine https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/cap-times-idea-fest-experts-caution-against-expectations-of-a-return-to-normal-with-vaccine/article_1e415221-7ea1-54c4-9729-bfe756fe5fd9.html https://www.thelancet.com/journals...
- Fri Oct 30, 2020 4:58 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Computer Science Degree or Self Learn?
- Replies: 72
- Views: 4722
Computer Science Degree or Self Learn?
Have read conflicting opinions on whether a degree in computer science is worthwhile or not, some say it's mostly outdated and a waste of time as employers only care about projects/ experience others say that is a pipe dream and you won't get a foot in the door without at least a degree. Makes it di...
- Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:49 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Is programming still a valuable skill to learn?
- Replies: 250
- Views: 20714
Re: Is programming still a valuable skill to learn?
Being a highly skilled programmer makes you a hot commodity, especially if you are a US Citizen due to some companies not always hiring people who need/have visas. I feel like I could find a job about anywhere in the US or at least a fully remote job where I could literally move anywhere I want. I ...
- Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:02 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Is programming still a valuable skill to learn?
- Replies: 250
- Views: 20714
Re: Is programming still a valuable skill to learn?
Is programming still a valuable skill? It seems like everybody is doing tech/ programming and salaries are going down, almost everyone who loses their job or wants to change careers is being to told to learn to code. It's also in the best interests of tech companies such as FAANG to hype it up as a...
- Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:04 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Is programming still a valuable skill to learn?
- Replies: 250
- Views: 20714
Is programming still a valuable skill to learn?
Is programming still a valuable skill? It seems like everybody is doing tech/ programming and salaries are going down, almost everyone who loses their job or wants to change careers is being to told to learn to code. It's also in the best interests of tech companies such as FAANG to hype it up as a ...
- Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:53 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Is real estate investing the same as stock picking?
- Replies: 12
- Views: 933
Re: Is real estate investing the same as stock picking?
So real estate investments are not comparable/ not passive?
- Sun Oct 04, 2020 12:50 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Is real estate investing the same as stock picking?
- Replies: 12
- Views: 933
Is real estate investing the same as stock picking?
Since most people can only afford 1 or 2 houses is it essentially stock picking since you are hoping the real estate/ area you buy in goes up or atleast matches the average is this similar to stock picking?