Search found 287 matches

by alex123711
Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Disney the most tempting value stock?
Replies: 242
Views: 16933

Re: Is Disney the most tempting value stock?

I thought Disney was undervalued at the start of the pandemic and really thought about buying but decided against individual stocks, sort of regret that now lol
by alex123711
Sat Feb 20, 2021 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some thoughts for those afraid of ATH [All Time High]
Replies: 109
Views: 9907

Re: Some thoughts for those afraid of ATH [All Time High]

The Nikkei peaked at an intra-day high of 38,957.44 on December 29, 1989. Three decades later it hasn't regained that high. So should we be assuming each ATH will not be seen again for three decades? I guess I never understand the relevance of the Japan reference. We could also cite the peaks of th...
by alex123711
Fri Feb 12, 2021 6:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens if you retire using the 4% rule and the market crashes 40%+ the next week
Replies: 113
Views: 8719

What happens if you retire using the 4% rule and the market crashes 40%+ the next week

Or within the next few months, would you base your 4% rate off the original amount or would you use the 40% less, or somewhere in between?
by alex123711
Wed Feb 03, 2021 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the 4% rule take tax, fees etc into account?
Replies: 362
Views: 12800

Re: Does the 4% rule take tax, fees etc into account?

We need to replace the 4% rule with the 3% rule, because 4% is much more likely to fail over the next 30 years than it used to be. I hate it when people say this without context. But at least you didn't go to 2%. If you are meaning that we are now facing the worst 30 years in recorded(*) history, t...
by alex123711
Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the 4% rule take tax, fees etc into account?
Replies: 362
Views: 12800

Does the 4% rule take tax, fees etc into account?

Or is it not taken into account since these vary from person to person?
by alex123711
Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4142
Views: 201572

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

So an internet group identifies two companies sold >100% short. GameStop is one: GME. Ryan Cohen from Chewy comes in as an activist and changes the narrative. The internet group works as a hive mind to burn the shorts down to a parabolic stock rise using buy and hold until squeeze. Anyone joining i...
by alex123711
Sun Jan 24, 2021 5:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ‘Frogs in boiling water’: Urgent warning for 50% market drop
Replies: 133
Views: 19028

‘Frogs in boiling water’: Urgent warning for 50% market drop

Billionaire Seth Klarman — whose letters to clients of his Boston-based fund Baupost Group are closely read on Wall Street — said the Fed’s pandemic-fueled policies of keeping rates close to zero have not stimulated the economy but instead sent the market flying beyond reason and made investors reck...
by alex123711
Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Pension vs Lump Sum?
Replies: 11
Views: 1276

Re: Pension vs Lump Sum?

Just trying to do the calculations on a pension vs a lump sum, say for e.g a lump sum is 100k or an inflation adjusted pension of 10k (in 30 years) Using an inflation adjusted 7% return on the lump sum for 30 years you would end up with 800k, which when using the 4% rule would give you 32k/ year. S...
by alex123711
Sat Jan 23, 2021 10:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Pension vs Lump Sum?
Replies: 11
Views: 1276

Re: Pension vs Lump Sum?

Just trying to do the calculations on a pension vs a lump sum, say for e.g a lump sum is 100k or an inflation adjusted pension of 10k (in 30 years) Using an inflation adjusted 7% return on the lump sum for 30 years you would end up with 800k, which when using the 4% rule would give you 32k/ year. S...
by alex123711
Sat Jan 23, 2021 10:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Pension vs Lump Sum?
Replies: 11
Views: 1276

Pension vs Lump Sum?

Just trying to do the calculations on a pension vs a lump sum, say for e.g a lump sum is 100k or an inflation adjusted pension of 10k (in 30 years) Using an inflation adjusted 7% return on the lump sum for 30 years you would end up with 800k, which when using the 4% rule would give you 32k/ year. So...
by alex123711
Wed Jan 20, 2021 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any Bogleheads hold/ held Berkshire Hathaway Shares?
Replies: 17
Views: 1613

Any Bogleheads hold/ held Berkshire Hathaway Shares?

Outside of the index. If so why and how have they fared for you?
by alex123711
Fri Jan 15, 2021 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2021 Bogleheads Contest Charts
Replies: 9
Views: 542

Re: 2021 Bogleheads Contest Charts

Nice, interesting to see how many were bullish after the 09' crash
by alex123711
Fri Jan 15, 2021 6:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What do you use for inflation? [for retirement planning]
Replies: 54
Views: 4149

Re: What do you use for inflation?

Thanks for all the replies. I'm starting to agree with the later posts of 0%. I see a lot of early responders using the 3-4% standard inflation rates. To me the standard inflation rate includes a lot of things that don't apply, at least to me. For instance, it's 33% based on housing costs, but I ow...
by alex123711
Fri Jan 15, 2021 5:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence Risk: is it really a big deal?
Replies: 125
Views: 16482

Re: Sequence Risk: is it really a big deal?

I don't really understand sequence of returns risk, e.g losing 50% of portfolio value is just as bad no matter where in the sequence it happens
by alex123711
Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munger warns of lost decade for investing (2021-2031)
Replies: 71
Views: 9985

Re: Munger warns of lost decade for investing (2021-2031)

Dude just said real returns will be worse. That's an easy prediction to make. It isn't guaranteed, but earnings have a bunch of catchup needed if we wanted to sustain the whole 7% real per year thing. The last ten years 12/31/2010 - 12/31/2020 had a 12.7% 'real' CAGR. Even "average" histo...
by alex123711
Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munger warns of lost decade for investing (2021-2031)
Replies: 71
Views: 9985

Re: Munger warns of lost decade for investing (2021-2031)

Dude just said real returns will be worse. That's an easy prediction to make. It isn't guaranteed, but earnings have a bunch of catchup needed if we wanted to sustain the whole 7% real per year thing. The last ten years 12/31/2010 - 12/31/2020 had a 12.7% 'real' CAGR. Even "average" histo...
by alex123711
Thu Jan 07, 2021 3:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 209
Views: 13289

Re: 2021 Hedge Fund Contest

Value Investors Club

Long:
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY
Micron MU
Seritage Growth Properties SRG

Short:
BJ'S RESTAURANTS INC BJRI
OWENS & MINOR INC OMI
BED BATH & BEYOND INC BBBY
by alex123711
Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is the Worst Financial Decision/Mistake You Have Made?
Replies: 230
Views: 18400

Re: What is the Worst Financial Decision/Mistake You Have Made?

I wish I had invested in the Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund back in 1976. I bought a house to rent out in 1978 and paid $32,000 for it. That house is probably worth around a $100k now plus I've collected rents all through the years. If I had invested that $32k in the S&P 500 Index fund and rei...
by alex123711
Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would it be worth having a small portion of your portfolio in a leveraged index?
Replies: 24
Views: 1671

Re: Would it be worth having a small portion of your portfolio in a leveraged index?

I'm surprised no one mentioned this yet - if you hold daily-rebalanced leveraged assets, volatility decay will destroy your holdings in the long term. This is a whole separate problem than just using leverage (investing borrowed money). That's a good point, I guess there's nothing similiar for hold...
by alex123711
Sun Jan 03, 2021 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would it be worth having a small portion of your portfolio in a leveraged index?
Replies: 24
Views: 1671

Re: Would it be worth having a small portion of your portfolio in a leveraged index?

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 8:40 pm read all about it:
viewtopic.php?t=272007
Have read that, however i'm just talking about 10% of your portolio being leveraged not 100%
by alex123711
Sun Jan 03, 2021 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would it be worth having a small portion of your portfolio in a leveraged index?
Replies: 24
Views: 1671

Would it be worth having a small portion of your portfolio in a leveraged index?

Is it worth having a portion of a long term portfolio (say 10%) in a leveraged index such as UPRO? Or would this be substantially increasing the risk profile and the risks outweigh the benefits? What effect would it have on the 4% rule etc?
by alex123711
Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 306
Views: 27002

Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Who won the contest and what was the % gain?
by alex123711
Mon Dec 28, 2020 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is real inflation?
Replies: 74
Views: 4772

Re: What is real inflation?

qwertyjazz wrote: Mon Dec 28, 2020 11:06 pm OP I wonder if you are talking about personal rate of inflation. All the inflation indices are about ‘the average person.’ Each person is unique though and has unique things they buy. So their personal inflation varies from any index. But no one can tract that.
Yeah that's a good point
by alex123711
Mon Dec 28, 2020 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is real inflation?
Replies: 74
Views: 4772

Re: What is real inflation?

If your investments make 9% and inflation is 3% that would make real return 6% but if your cost of housing is up 10% that makes a much bigger difference than the price of some other commodity. Sure. If you bought a house this year, you were negatively impacted by the rise in home prices. Unless you...
by alex123711
Mon Dec 28, 2020 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mohnish Pabrai 2021 Free Lunch Portfolio
Replies: 10
Views: 1197

Mohnish Pabrai 2021 Free Lunch Portfolio

http://www.chaiwithpabrai.com/blog/2021 ... -portfolio

Is it worth putting a portion of investment into something like this with the potential to outperform the index?
by alex123711
Mon Dec 28, 2020 2:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is real inflation?
Replies: 74
Views: 4772

What is real inflation?

Inflation seems to average around 3% depending where you live etc. But how is the overall figure attained. For example if house prices are up 10% and other things such as petrol prices etc bring the average down to 3% this doesn't make sense to me since the housing prices have a much larger effect o...
by alex123711
Tue Dec 22, 2020 11:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Projector to use as TV?
Replies: 11
Views: 620

Projector to use as TV?

Just looking for a projector to replace my tv, any recommendations? I don't know too much about projectors so not sure what would be suitable, short throw, long throw, which brands etc?
by alex123711
Mon Dec 21, 2020 1:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is programming still a valuable skill to learn?
Replies: 250
Views: 20714

Re: Is programming still a valuable skill to learn?

The difference between output from a programmer or a software developer is the difference between a grocery list and a novel. Both are just words, right? I am a full stack Java web developer and have worked in software my entire life. I have loved it. I have constantly learned new things and upgrad...
by alex123711
Sun Dec 20, 2020 1:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is programming still a valuable skill to learn?
Replies: 250
Views: 20714

Re: Is programming still a valuable skill to learn?

Came across this which sort of makes it look like programming is oversaturated; e.g some people mentioning they have over 20+ yrs exp and have applied for 100's of jobs without any interviews: https://www.quora.com/With-so-many-people-trying-out-coding-why-is-there-still-a-big-shortage-of-software-e...
by alex123711
Sat Dec 19, 2020 1:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 799
Views: 121430

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Any updates? Using the same 60/40 AA as the OP, with stocks split 50/50 between U.S. and ex-U.S., our year 2000 retirees would, as of the end of November, have had an inflation-adjusted $683,409 after 20 years of withdrawals and experiencing three bear markets, including two in the first critical d...
by alex123711
Fri Dec 04, 2020 5:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is programming still a valuable skill to learn?
Replies: 250
Views: 20714

Re: Is programming still a valuable skill to learn?

I work for a company in the tier below the FANGs (with comparable compensation) and almost all the senior technical leadership in my department is >40. https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/median-age-labor-force.htm Median age of the labor force, by sex, race, and ethnicity 41.9 https://www.businessinsid...
by alex123711
Fri Dec 04, 2020 2:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best heating method for house without lowering humidity?
Replies: 56
Views: 3975

Re: Best heating method for house without lowering humidity?

The problem is your body - especially your nose and mouth response to the RELATIVE humidity - which drives the evaporation rate of your mucous membranes. The lb water vs lb of air remains constant as temperature increases (in this example, look at the y axis and see there is about .006 lb water/lb ...
by alex123711
Thu Dec 03, 2020 9:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best heating method for house without lowering humidity?
Replies: 56
Views: 3975

Re: Best heating method for house without lowering humidity?

Thanks for the replies, I've seen hydronic heaters marketed as being better for dry areas etc, is it just a sales pitch?
by alex123711
Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best heating method for house without lowering humidity?
Replies: 56
Views: 3975

Best heating method for house without lowering humidity?

Just wondering what is the best way to heat a house without lowering the humidity, as I live in a low humidity area I would like to raise or atleast maintain the humidity, what would be the best options e.g ducted heating, reverse cycle heating, hydronic heating, gas etc? I imagine hydronic is proba...
by alex123711
Fri Nov 20, 2020 12:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Herman miller desk?
Replies: 9
Views: 1208

Herman miller desk?

I know Herman Miller Chairs have a good reputation, but what about desks, are they really worth the price as well?
by alex123711
Tue Nov 10, 2020 5:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those concerned about International Stocks...
Replies: 236
Views: 25593

Re: Bogle on Global Investing

Bogleheads: There is much speculation and misinformation about why Mr. Bogle believed that international investing is not necessary. In his book, "Common Sense on Mutual Funds -- Second Edition, " he devotes 25 pages explaining his reasons. This is a short summary: * "We have, at lea...
by alex123711
Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How on earth can overweighting US stock over international stock possibly be considered Boglehead?
Replies: 253
Views: 16139

Re: How on earth can overweighting US stock over international stock possibly be considered Boglehead?

Can we at least agree that for people from outside the US (who number 7 billion and counting) all-world market weight is the default choice? :D I’m outside the US, and only invest US I don’t invest all-word cuz Bogle or Buffett never said I should Also it’s irrational to say Bogle and Buffett only ...
by alex123711
Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How on earth can overweighting US stock over international stock possibly be considered Boglehead?
Replies: 253
Views: 16139

Re: How on earth can overweighting US stock over international stock possibly be considered Boglehead?

What about people who do not live in the U.S or are not from the U.S should they still buy all U.S?
by alex123711
Sat Nov 07, 2020 3:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How on earth can overweighting US stock over international stock possibly be considered Boglehead?
Replies: 253
Views: 16139

Re: How on earth can overweighting US stock over international stock possibly be considered Boglehead?

I have an international allocation, but as noted (and as subscribed to by Jack Bogle) many U.S. stocks have international exposure. Of note... July 30, 2020 — Apple today announced financial results for its fiscal 2020 third quarter ended June 27, 2020. The Company posted quarterly revenue of $59.7...
by alex123711
Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Life won't go back to normal even with a vaccine
Replies: 8
Views: 2351

Re: Life won't go back to normal even with a vaccine

Anybody with any sense has already figured that out, and everything that can possibly be said about Covid has already been said 1000 times. TINA, zero cost of capital, "stimulus hopes". The market is as high as it is because people think it'll be higher, I guess. Market is high, because F...
by alex123711
Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Life won't go back to normal even with a vaccine
Replies: 8
Views: 2351

Life won't go back to normal even with a vaccine

Experts caution against expectations of a return to normal with vaccine https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/cap-times-idea-fest-experts-caution-against-expectations-of-a-return-to-normal-with-vaccine/article_1e415221-7ea1-54c4-9729-bfe756fe5fd9.html https://www.thelancet.com/journals...
by alex123711
Fri Oct 30, 2020 4:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Computer Science Degree or Self Learn?
Replies: 72
Views: 4722

Computer Science Degree or Self Learn?

Have read conflicting opinions on whether a degree in computer science is worthwhile or not, some say it's mostly outdated and a waste of time as employers only care about projects/ experience others say that is a pipe dream and you won't get a foot in the door without at least a degree. Makes it di...
by alex123711
Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is programming still a valuable skill to learn?
Replies: 250
Views: 20714

Re: Is programming still a valuable skill to learn?

Being a highly skilled programmer makes you a hot commodity, especially if you are a US Citizen due to some companies not always hiring people who need/have visas. I feel like I could find a job about anywhere in the US or at least a fully remote job where I could literally move anywhere I want. I ...
by alex123711
Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is programming still a valuable skill to learn?
Replies: 250
Views: 20714

Re: Is programming still a valuable skill to learn?

Is programming still a valuable skill? It seems like everybody is doing tech/ programming and salaries are going down, almost everyone who loses their job or wants to change careers is being to told to learn to code. It's also in the best interests of tech companies such as FAANG to hype it up as a...
by alex123711
Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is programming still a valuable skill to learn?
Replies: 250
Views: 20714

Is programming still a valuable skill to learn?

Is programming still a valuable skill? It seems like everybody is doing tech/ programming and salaries are going down, almost everyone who loses their job or wants to change careers is being to told to learn to code. It's also in the best interests of tech companies such as FAANG to hype it up as a ...
by alex123711
Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is real estate investing the same as stock picking?
Replies: 12
Views: 933

Re: Is real estate investing the same as stock picking?

So real estate investments are not comparable/ not passive?
by alex123711
Sun Oct 04, 2020 12:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is real estate investing the same as stock picking?
Replies: 12
Views: 933

Is real estate investing the same as stock picking?

Since most people can only afford 1 or 2 houses is it essentially stock picking since you are hoping the real estate/ area you buy in goes up or atleast matches the average is this similar to stock picking?