Bogleheads.org

alex123711

I thought Disney was undervalued at the start of the pandemic and really thought about buying but decided against individual stocks, sort of regret that now lol

alex123711

The Nikkei peaked at an intra-day high of 38,957.44 on December 29, 1989. Three decades later it hasn't regained that high. So should we be assuming each ATH will not be seen again for three decades? I guess I never understand the relevance of the Japan reference. We could also cite the peaks of th...

alex123711

Or within the next few months, would you base your 4% rate off the original amount or would you use the 40% less, or somewhere in between?

alex123711

We need to replace the 4% rule with the 3% rule, because 4% is much more likely to fail over the next 30 years than it used to be. I hate it when people say this without context. But at least you didn't go to 2%. If you are meaning that we are now facing the worst 30 years in recorded(*) history, t...

alex123711

Or is it not taken into account since these vary from person to person?

alex123711

So an internet group identifies two companies sold >100% short. GameStop is one: GME. Ryan Cohen from Chewy comes in as an activist and changes the narrative. The internet group works as a hive mind to burn the shorts down to a parabolic stock rise using buy and hold until squeeze. Anyone joining i...

alex123711

Billionaire Seth Klarman — whose letters to clients of his Boston-based fund Baupost Group are closely read on Wall Street — said the Fed’s pandemic-fueled policies of keeping rates close to zero have not stimulated the economy but instead sent the market flying beyond reason and made investors reck...

alex123711

Just trying to do the calculations on a pension vs a lump sum, say for e.g a lump sum is 100k or an inflation adjusted pension of 10k (in 30 years) Using an inflation adjusted 7% return on the lump sum for 30 years you would end up with 800k, which when using the 4% rule would give you 32k/ year. S...

alex123711

Just trying to do the calculations on a pension vs a lump sum, say for e.g a lump sum is 100k or an inflation adjusted pension of 10k (in 30 years) Using an inflation adjusted 7% return on the lump sum for 30 years you would end up with 800k, which when using the 4% rule would give you 32k/ year. S...

alex123711

Just trying to do the calculations on a pension vs a lump sum, say for e.g a lump sum is 100k or an inflation adjusted pension of 10k (in 30 years) Using an inflation adjusted 7% return on the lump sum for 30 years you would end up with 800k, which when using the 4% rule would give you 32k/ year. So...

alex123711

Outside of the index. If so why and how have they fared for you?

alex123711

Nice, interesting to see how many were bullish after the 09' crash

alex123711

Thanks for all the replies. I'm starting to agree with the later posts of 0%. I see a lot of early responders using the 3-4% standard inflation rates. To me the standard inflation rate includes a lot of things that don't apply, at least to me. For instance, it's 33% based on housing costs, but I ow...

alex123711

I don't really understand sequence of returns risk, e.g losing 50% of portfolio value is just as bad no matter where in the sequence it happens

alex123711

Dude just said real returns will be worse. That's an easy prediction to make. It isn't guaranteed, but earnings have a bunch of catchup needed if we wanted to sustain the whole 7% real per year thing. The last ten years 12/31/2010 - 12/31/2020 had a 12.7% 'real' CAGR. Even "average" histo...

alex123711

Dude just said real returns will be worse. That's an easy prediction to make. It isn't guaranteed, but earnings have a bunch of catchup needed if we wanted to sustain the whole 7% real per year thing. The last ten years 12/31/2010 - 12/31/2020 had a 12.7% 'real' CAGR. Even "average" histo...

alex123711

Munger warns of lost decade for investing (2021-2031)

[link formatted by admin LadyGeek]

alex123711

Value Investors Club

Long:
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY
Micron MU
Seritage Growth Properties SRG

Short:
BJ'S RESTAURANTS INC BJRI
OWENS & MINOR INC OMI
BED BATH & BEYOND INC BBBY

alex123711

I wish I had invested in the Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund back in 1976. I bought a house to rent out in 1978 and paid $32,000 for it. That house is probably worth around a $100k now plus I've collected rents all through the years. If I had invested that $32k in the S&P 500 Index fund and rei...

alex123711

I'm surprised no one mentioned this yet - if you hold daily-rebalanced leveraged assets, volatility decay will destroy your holdings in the long term. This is a whole separate problem than just using leverage (investing borrowed money). That's a good point, I guess there's nothing similiar for hold...

alex123711

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: ↑Sun Jan 03, 2021 8:40 pm read all about it:
viewtopic.php?t=272007

Have read that, however i'm just talking about 10% of your portolio being leveraged not 100%

alex123711

Is it worth having a portion of a long term portfolio (say 10%) in a leveraged index such as UPRO? Or would this be substantially increasing the risk profile and the risks outweigh the benefits? What effect would it have on the 4% rule etc?

alex123711

3390.0

alex123711

Who won the contest and what was the % gain?

alex123711

qwertyjazz wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 11:06 pm OP I wonder if you are talking about personal rate of inflation. All the inflation indices are about ‘the average person.’ Each person is unique though and has unique things they buy. So their personal inflation varies from any index. But no one can tract that.

Yeah that's a good point

alex123711

If your investments make 9% and inflation is 3% that would make real return 6% but if your cost of housing is up 10% that makes a much bigger difference than the price of some other commodity. Sure. If you bought a house this year, you were negatively impacted by the rise in home prices. Unless you...

alex123711

http://www.chaiwithpabrai.com/blog/2021 ... -portfolio

Is it worth putting a portion of investment into something like this with the potential to outperform the index?

alex123711

Inflation seems to average around 3% depending where you live etc. But how is the overall figure attained. For example if house prices are up 10% and other things such as petrol prices etc bring the average down to 3% this doesn't make sense to me since the housing prices have a much larger effect o...

alex123711

Just looking for a projector to replace my tv, any recommendations? I don't know too much about projectors so not sure what would be suitable, short throw, long throw, which brands etc?

alex123711

The difference between output from a programmer or a software developer is the difference between a grocery list and a novel. Both are just words, right? I am a full stack Java web developer and have worked in software my entire life. I have loved it. I have constantly learned new things and upgrad...

alex123711

Came across this which sort of makes it look like programming is oversaturated; e.g some people mentioning they have over 20+ yrs exp and have applied for 100's of jobs without any interviews: https://www.quora.com/With-so-many-people-trying-out-coding-why-is-there-still-a-big-shortage-of-software-e...

alex123711

Any updates? Using the same 60/40 AA as the OP, with stocks split 50/50 between U.S. and ex-U.S., our year 2000 retirees would, as of the end of November, have had an inflation-adjusted $683,409 after 20 years of withdrawals and experiencing three bear markets, including two in the first critical d...

alex123711

Any updates?

alex123711

I work for a company in the tier below the FANGs (with comparable compensation) and almost all the senior technical leadership in my department is >40. https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/median-age-labor-force.htm Median age of the labor force, by sex, race, and ethnicity 41.9 https://www.businessinsid...

alex123711

The problem is your body - especially your nose and mouth response to the RELATIVE humidity - which drives the evaporation rate of your mucous membranes. The lb water vs lb of air remains constant as temperature increases (in this example, look at the y axis and see there is about .006 lb water/lb ...

alex123711

Thanks for the replies, I've seen hydronic heaters marketed as being better for dry areas etc, is it just a sales pitch?

alex123711

Just wondering what is the best way to heat a house without lowering the humidity, as I live in a low humidity area I would like to raise or atleast maintain the humidity, what would be the best options e.g ducted heating, reverse cycle heating, hydronic heating, gas etc? I imagine hydronic is proba...

alex123711

I know Herman Miller Chairs have a good reputation, but what about desks, are they really worth the price as well?

alex123711

Bogleheads: There is much speculation and misinformation about why Mr. Bogle believed that international investing is not necessary. In his book, "Common Sense on Mutual Funds -- Second Edition, " he devotes 25 pages explaining his reasons. This is a short summary: * "We have, at lea...

alex123711

Can we at least agree that for people from outside the US (who number 7 billion and counting) all-world market weight is the default choice? :D I’m outside the US, and only invest US I don’t invest all-word cuz Bogle or Buffett never said I should Also it’s irrational to say Bogle and Buffett only ...

alex123711

What about people who do not live in the U.S or are not from the U.S should they still buy all U.S?

alex123711

I have an international allocation, but as noted (and as subscribed to by Jack Bogle) many U.S. stocks have international exposure. Of note... July 30, 2020 — Apple today announced financial results for its fiscal 2020 third quarter ended June 27, 2020. The Company posted quarterly revenue of $59.7...

alex123711

Anybody with any sense has already figured that out, and everything that can possibly be said about Covid has already been said 1000 times. TINA, zero cost of capital, "stimulus hopes". The market is as high as it is because people think it'll be higher, I guess. Market is high, because F...

alex123711

Experts caution against expectations of a return to normal with vaccine https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/cap-times-idea-fest-experts-caution-against-expectations-of-a-return-to-normal-with-vaccine/article_1e415221-7ea1-54c4-9729-bfe756fe5fd9.html https://www.thelancet.com/journals...

alex123711

Have read conflicting opinions on whether a degree in computer science is worthwhile or not, some say it's mostly outdated and a waste of time as employers only care about projects/ experience others say that is a pipe dream and you won't get a foot in the door without at least a degree. Makes it di...

alex123711

Being a highly skilled programmer makes you a hot commodity, especially if you are a US Citizen due to some companies not always hiring people who need/have visas. I feel like I could find a job about anywhere in the US or at least a fully remote job where I could literally move anywhere I want. I ...

alex123711

Is programming still a valuable skill? It seems like everybody is doing tech/ programming and salaries are going down, almost everyone who loses their job or wants to change careers is being to told to learn to code. It's also in the best interests of tech companies such as FAANG to hype it up as a...

alex123711

Is programming still a valuable skill? It seems like everybody is doing tech/ programming and salaries are going down, almost everyone who loses their job or wants to change careers is being to told to learn to code. It's also in the best interests of tech companies such as FAANG to hype it up as a ...

alex123711

So real estate investments are not comparable/ not passive?

alex123711

Since most people can only afford 1 or 2 houses is it essentially stock picking since you are hoping the real estate/ area you buy in goes up or atleast matches the average is this similar to stock picking?

Search found 287 matches