Search found 4098 matches

by vineviz
Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing at Schwab
Replies: 4
Views: 196

Re: Rebalancing at Schwab

My Goal has been to keep a 60 / 40 split between Stocks and Bonds. Does anyone have any suggestions for making the Schwab rebalance easier? I think the best solution is to avoid the problem altogether by using a target date fund at Schwab. Schwab Target 2030 Index (SWYEX) has roughly the asset allo...
by vineviz
Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?
Replies: 126
Views: 9584

Re: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?

Am I missing something here? I sold all of my TIPS years ago and did quite well. I was fortunate. If by "fortunate" you mean "lucky", then maybe. If the TIPS were long-term bonds then (depending on when you sold them) you'd possibly would have a lot more wealth if you'd kept the TIPS, though. https...
by vineviz
Tue Jun 25, 2019 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excluding International All Together?
Replies: 40
Views: 2296

Re: Excluding International All Together?

No international for me. Silly name calling and baseless assumptions about why aren't helpful. +1. They seem to have a chip on their shoulder. I'm not sure who "they" are, and I doubt that name calling and making baseless assumptions is any more helpful in one direction than another. But this is an...
by vineviz
Tue Jun 25, 2019 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value vs Multifactor
Replies: 35
Views: 2170

Re: Small Value vs Multifactor

By the way, I’m specifically referring to the Vanguard Small Value fund and the Vanguard Multifactor fund... I was under the impression that the Vanguard SV fund uses a different index than SLYV/IJS.....and chose the latter for some reason I cannot recall Vanguard manages three different small cap ...
by vineviz
Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018
Replies: 103
Views: 5166

Re: Crazy charts ?

vineviz: Looking at both charts, it appears that "dociles 8-10 (S&P 500)" had approximately the same 5-year return as the small-cap funds. However, according to Morningstar, the S&P 500 Index had more than twice the return of small-cap and value indexes. Why is the out-performance of the S&P Index ...
by vineviz
Mon Jun 24, 2019 7:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VWETX vs. VBTLX
Replies: 5
Views: 517

Re: VWETX vs. VBTLX

Has anyone considered VWETX vs VBTLX for your bond AA? It's been a steady performer and has provided decent stability over the years. Pros? Cons? The main pro is that it is a long-term bond fund, which is possibly more suited to your investment horizon if you are a long-term investor. The con is th...
by vineviz
Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RIP to value investing...
Replies: 40
Views: 4506

Re: RIP to value investing...

Time to tilt to value. Can you please explain your rationale for this comment? I took him to be observing that the appearance of articles signaling the "death" of something is often (only partly in jest) considered to be a good contrarian signal that the thing is imminently going to show obvious si...
by vineviz
Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018
Replies: 103
Views: 5166

Re: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018

There's barely any daylight between VIMSX and NAESX, while the gap between both of them and VFINX is glaring. One place we do see a little daylight between VIMSX and NAESX is around 2007-2008, and that's consistent with the mild outperformance of VIMSX we see in the telltale chart in the few years ...
by vineviz
Mon Jun 24, 2019 5:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Used Minivan - Recommendations?
Replies: 34
Views: 1186

Re: Used Minivan - Recommendations?

If I'm buying a car to keep for 16-18 years, why would I bother with resale value? The value of the car could drop 90% within the first year and it wouldn't matter since I'm not selling... :confused I guess I was assuming the van will be sold at some point (I've never owned a vehicle that I DIDN'T ...
by vineviz
Mon Jun 24, 2019 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Horizon
Replies: 2
Views: 207

Re: Investment Horizon

I often see reference to the term "Investment Horizon". For someone in the accumulation stages of life my understanding is that your investment horizon is the period of time until you reach retirement age. So if you are 40 and you plan on retirement at 65, you have an investment horizon of 25 years...
by vineviz
Mon Jun 24, 2019 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient frontier?
Replies: 23
Views: 4071

Re: Efficient frontier?

Benjamin Buffett wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 4:56 pm
This is one of the best descriptions of how practically useful, or useless, Modern Portfolio Theory is.
If it were completely, or even mostly, accurate I'd probably agree with you.
by vineviz
Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Effect of trading fees imposed on all stocks and bonds
Replies: 9
Views: 601

Re: Effect of trading fees imposed on all stocks and bonds

livesoft wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:33 pm
Doesn't this already happen in Europe? Aren't those "stamp fees" what you are talking about?
In the U.S., the SEC already levies a (small) transaction fee on exchange-traded equities. Most people don't even notice.
by vineviz
Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Used Minivan - Recommendations?
Replies: 34
Views: 1186

Re: Used Minivan - Recommendations?

Many of you have recommended new, which I guess we'd be open to since it sounds like used minivans carry value. As a parent of three, I can definitely endorse the minivan as a practical choice. If you choose a brand that retains resale value (Honda or Toyota), buying new can be a good choice especi...
by vineviz
Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging markets EX China
Replies: 4
Views: 394

Re: Emerging markets EX China

Would this be a good time to get exposure to emerging markets? But I definitely don't want China. I've seen the fund emxc. Seems like performance on this has been terrible - but shouldn't that change soon as the emerging countries start to catch up? Any thoughts on that fund or a better suggestion?...
by vineviz
Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tangled Portfolio Review – Looking to Streamline
Replies: 18
Views: 737

Re: Tangled Portfolio Review – Looking to Streamline

in terms of allocation, here's what i'm playing with: 90/10 stocks/bonds 50% Vanguard Total US Market (VTI) 40% Vanguard Total Intl Market (VXUS) 4% Vanguard US Total Bond (BND) 4% Vanguard Intl Bond (BNDX) 2% Vanguard TIPS (VTIP) Unless you are trying to create complexity for the sake of complexit...
by vineviz
Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Used Minivan - Recommendations?
Replies: 34
Views: 1186

Re: Used Minivan - Recommendations?

Frankly, something within the past 3 to 4 years with under 40k miles. Need something reliable since it will be carrying a baby and a toddler. How did you come up with those constraints? They seem somewhat arbitrary, and using the Odyssey as an example means something in the $24K to $30k range most ...
by vineviz
Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Used Minivan - Recommendations?
Replies: 34
Views: 1186

Re: Used Minivan - Recommendations?

Honda Odyssey. We have a 2005 Touring trim level that is still going strong, 3 children later.
by vineviz
Mon Jun 24, 2019 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RIP to value investing...
Replies: 40
Views: 4506

Re: RIP to value investing...

garlandwhizzer wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 12:51 pm
I think the point of the CNBC article is that over the last decade there have been what appear to be secular changes in the economy . . .
Have there been any decades in which there did NOT appear to be "secular changes in the economy"?
by vineviz
Mon Jun 24, 2019 12:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Stashing cash for a home purchase in 10 years
Replies: 15
Views: 1236

Re: Stashing cash for a home purchase in 10 years

Does this make sense....? It doesn't to me: it seems unlikely to provide the optimal balance of risk/reward and likely to be unnecessarily complicated. If I was expecting to make a large purchase in, say, 2029, I'd invest in target maturity bond ETFs like Invesco BulletShares 2028 Corporate Bond ET...
by vineviz
Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why does AA matter as long as I stick to it?
Replies: 23
Views: 1812

Re: Why does AA matter as long as I stick to it?

I am having difficulty understanding why one's basic AA in retirement matters (within reason, of course) as long as one sticks to it. For sake of simplicity, let's think simply in terms of bond/equity. Why should I care whether I'm 20/80 or 30/70 or 50/50 as long as I stick to it and as long as I h...
by vineviz
Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RIP to value investing...
Replies: 40
Views: 4506

Re: RIP to value investing...

Nicolas Rabener has a timely blog post at FactorResearch.com called "Mapping My Mind: Value Factor". https://www.factorresearch.com/research-mapping-my-mind-value-factor He looks at the value factor several different ways, including different metrics (as we discussed earlier): https://i.imgur.com/Xo...
by vineviz
Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Emergency Fund AA
Replies: 18
Views: 1276

Re: Emergency Fund AA

Here's an alternative view: 'overfund' your EF by about 25% and invest it in Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund (35/65 AA). Its maximum drawdown over its nearly 50 year history was about -18%. While it isn't likely to perform as well in the near future as it did in the past, it's likely to outperform...
by vineviz
Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities objectively considered
Replies: 126
Views: 9659

Re: Annuities objectively considered

I have to imagine that they are all short term traders and my understanding is that the market is pretty limited. That’d be my guess, and I don’t imagine trading alone would support a very robust derivatives market. I’d think there’d be some audience among retail investors for an inflation swap ETF...
by vineviz
Sun Jun 23, 2019 8:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing a portfolio bloated with ESPP stocks
Replies: 6
Views: 529

Re: Rebalancing a portfolio bloated with ESPP stocks

1. How to best rebalance? MSFT has been doing really well so not sure if selling my stocks is the best idea. Also capital gains (?) would erode my taxes. Should I still withdraw money to put more into bonds? Yes, you should sell MSFT until it is 10% or less of your portfolio. Not a penny more than ...
by vineviz
Sun Jun 23, 2019 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RIP to value investing...
Replies: 40
Views: 4506

Re: RIP to value investing...

p/b is dead. p/e is not. P/B might very well be dead (probably will be comatose, at the very least, as long as the cost of capital is so low), but even so I think the perception is that value funds rely on it much more than they actually do. Among small cap value ETFs, for instance, only the Russel...
by vineviz
Sun Jun 23, 2019 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RIP to value investing...
Replies: 40
Views: 4506

Re: RIP to value investing...

2) Buffett has never been a factor investor. Buffett began investing long before Fama and French published "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds" (in 1993). Buffet has always been a "factor investor", even if he doesn't know it and never thought of himself that way. His investment...
by vineviz
Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018
Replies: 103
Views: 5166

Re: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018

In support of that JoMoney pointed out that one of the best known, best managed SCV funds really hasn't turned an extra dime for you since it has existed beyond investing in a real-life S&P 500 index fund, save for one short period of time; since 2004 it hasn't really been worth all the self-doubti...
by vineviz
Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities objectively considered
Replies: 126
Views: 9659

Re: Annuities objectively considered

They are using inflation swaps and TIPs to get rid of inflation risk. For most derivatives I can think of, there are generally at least some natural buyers on both sides of a swap. Who are the natural counterparties in an inflation swap? I can see the side who wants to convert a nominal asset into ...
by vineviz
Sun Jun 23, 2019 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018
Replies: 103
Views: 5166

Re: "Reversion to the mean"

It's much more nuanced than your simplified story tells. Small-cap value tilters should be quite happy if the next 27 years looks something like the last 27 years. You make a good point, and I think it's also important to remember that if we rely on our eyes to reveal patterns then we''ll see them ...
by vineviz
Sun Jun 23, 2019 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities objectively considered
Replies: 126
Views: 9659

Re: Annuities objectively considered

So you are left selling to the people that believe that inflation can come back. There are not a lot of people that aren't in that group. Even worse: you end up trying to sell to a customer who believes unexpected inflation can show up with force AND also wants to buy an annuity. https://i.imgur.co...
by vineviz
Sun Jun 23, 2019 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018
Replies: 103
Views: 5166

Re: "Reversion to the mean"

... I find telltale charts to be more informative than looking at various time periods separately... Perhaps, but it illustrates the same, If this illustrates anything, it illustrates that calculating the return of an investment for all periods EXCEPT the periods you wish hadn't happened can be use...
by vineviz
Sun Jun 23, 2019 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018
Replies: 103
Views: 5166

Re: "Reversion to the mean"

As we stand currently, relative to the de facto small-cap "Factor" portfolio that is DFA's DFSVX fund, any "premium" for it's 26 years of existence relative to an S&P 500 index rests on the outsized returns over a less than one year period between 2001-2002... Except for that time in 1993-1994. htt...
by vineviz
Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Balanced Fund
Replies: 20
Views: 1814

Re: Fidelity Balanced Fund

thanks travelogue, I actually think iShares AOR ETF is probably her best bet [iShares Core Growth Allocation ETF]. Roughly 60/40, low ER (currently 0.25), and globally diversified. Is it perfect, no, but IMO good enough for what she is looking for. Fidelity Freedom Index 2025 Fund (FQIFX) has a sim...
by vineviz
Sat Jun 22, 2019 9:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking practical help understanding “bid-ask spread” for ETFs
Replies: 52
Views: 2199

Re: Seeking practical help understanding “bid-ask spread” for ETFs

You put in your limit order and you hope the market moves towards you. Selling liquidity in this way can be a profitable strategy, possibly, but I wouldn't categorize it as avoiding the bid/ask spread. Yes, the market MIGHT move toward you. Or the bid/ask spread MIGHT narrow while your limit order ...
by vineviz
Sat Jun 22, 2019 9:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking practical help understanding “bid-ask spread” for ETFs
Replies: 52
Views: 2199

Re: Seeking practical help understanding “bid-ask spread” for ETFs

The first sentence is fine if you say the spread is *one* of the ways the AP gets paid (I would guess the primary way for very liquid etfs?). Yes, I meant to write something more generalized and got carried away a little bit. The second sentence is tautological to the point of being useless. You'd ...
by vineviz
Sat Jun 22, 2019 9:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Heavy concentration in Electric Utilities
Replies: 20
Views: 1606

Re: Heavy concentration in Electric Utilities

My wife and I are retired, both have pensions, both get soc. sec., no debts. Our IRAs are about 500k, which about 250k in electric utilities and 250k in cds. These funds will be past on our children. Should I be more concerned about the high concentration in Utility Stocks for the next 18 months? Y...
by vineviz
Sat Jun 22, 2019 8:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Tracker that keeps track of dividend reinvestment
Replies: 5
Views: 602

Re: Portfolio Tracker that keeps track of dividend reinvestment

No it doesn't . For eg. I entered VBLTX into my morningstar portfolio and I got dividends that got reinvested into the mutual fund and morning star didn't reflect that. If you create a portfolio (not a watchlist) and check the box at the top right for "Track Cash Flows" (see screenshot below) you s...
by vineviz
Sat Jun 22, 2019 7:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking practical help understanding “bid-ask spread” for ETFs
Replies: 52
Views: 2199

Re: Seeking practical help understanding “bid-ask spread” for ETFs

There are some instances at bogleheads.org of investors selling shares in one account and buying them in another account for the same price. Thus, no spread. There is ALWAYS a spread. And you can NEVER avoid paying it. Not true if the shares are created out of thin air for you by the AP On the cont...
by vineviz
Sat Jun 22, 2019 7:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking practical help understanding “bid-ask spread” for ETFs
Replies: 52
Views: 2199

Re: Seeking practical help understanding “bid-ask spread” for ETFs

For instance, suppose bid is 140.50 and ask is 140.70, so you place a limit order to buy at 140.70 which I understand is a marketable limit order. So the program that is asking for 140.70 sees your order before it gets published and removes its offer to buy at 140.70 and changes it to 140.80. The m...
by vineviz
Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking practical help understanding “bid-ask spread” for ETFs
Replies: 52
Views: 2199

Re: Seeking practical help understanding “bid-ask spread” for ETFs

livesoft wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:30 pm
There are some instances at bogleheads.org of investors selling shares in one account and buying them in another account for the same price. Thus, no spread.
There is ALWAYS a spread. And you can NEVER avoid paying it.
by vineviz
Sat Jun 22, 2019 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV Methodology Issues
Replies: 9
Views: 575

Re: SCV Methodology Issues

So I wonder if anybody has ever come up with a product that buys value stocks as of a specific point in time and then holds those stocks for a longer time period. This sounds to me very much like an actively managed mutual fund. Effectively it requires buying stocks when they are value stocks and t...
by vineviz
Sat Jun 22, 2019 1:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking practical help understanding “bid-ask spread” for ETFs
Replies: 52
Views: 2199

Re: Seeking practical help understanding “bid-ask spread” for ETFs

Also, do I pay the spread as a buyer but get the benefit of the spread as an eventual seller, or is it a cost to me on both ends? The spread represents the difference, at a particular point in time, between price you can get if you sell and the price you will pay if you buy. You can and should expe...
by vineviz
Sat Jun 22, 2019 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value vs Multifactor
Replies: 35
Views: 2170

Re: Small Value vs Multifactor

How do you mean 'better diversification'? I thought the factor regression shows IJS is more diversified over the factors? Yes, IJS does have a higher total factor load than VFMF. I was referring to the fact that the factor loads of IJS are more concentrated (i.e. RMF and SMB account for 72% of the ...
by vineviz
Sat Jun 22, 2019 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value vs Multifactor
Replies: 35
Views: 2170

Re: Small Value vs Multifactor

At what level would you say you’re concerned with negative alpha, given that VFMF currently does have negative alpha? How much data across what type of markets would you need to be confident in the regression for a new fund like VFMF that doesn’t have stated factor load targets? That's a good quest...
by vineviz
Sat Jun 22, 2019 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing to Oblivion
Replies: 39
Views: 2783

Re: Rebalancing to Oblivion

So, what I’m wondering is – is our 50/50 allocation too high if we can’t stomach our portfolio dropping by much more than half? Is it reasonable to describe a point in our IPS where we stop rebalancing into stocks? I know we can’t keep rebalancing into oblivion – so what might I do instead? How do ...
by vineviz
Sat Jun 22, 2019 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV Methodology Issues
Replies: 9
Views: 575

Re: SCV Methodology Issues

So I wonder if anybody has ever come up with a product that buys value stocks as of a specific point in time and then holds those stocks for a longer time period. This sounds to me very much like an actively managed mutual fund. Effectively it requires buying stocks when they are value stocks and t...
by vineviz
Sat Jun 22, 2019 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value vs Multifactor
Replies: 35
Views: 2170

Re: Small Value vs Multifactor

Would that make IJS the better choice for factor exposure? "Better" is a dangerous word. ;) Depends on your goals and preferences. If I were just picking one US equity funds, I'd probably choose VFMF. The factor exposures are somewhat more balanced than IJS/SLYV/VIOV (i.e. it has somewhat better di...
by vineviz
Sat Jun 22, 2019 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund
Replies: 161
Views: 14894

Re: New Vanguard Commodities Fund --Your Thoughts?

Yeah the quick 101 on how these work in a portfolio for those that use them, is the expected return (in isolation) is roughly just the inflation rate. And then the bonus return comes from regularly re-balancing the position of an uncorrelated, asset class. So hopefully even those that have a commod...
by vineviz
Sat Jun 22, 2019 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value vs Multifactor
Replies: 35
Views: 2170

Re: Small Value vs Multifactor

Interesting. How would these options compare to a small cap value fund + iShares Momentum added? My opinion of the iShares USA Momentum Factor ETF isn't very high: you give back more on size, value, and quality than you get in momentum. Maybe pairing a SCV fund with the Vanguard momentum fund (VFMO...
by vineviz
Sat Jun 22, 2019 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value vs Multifactor
Replies: 35
Views: 2170

Re: Small Value vs Multifactor

As you have no doubt noticed from the almost daily (OK, daily) factor doubt threads, you're going to need conviction to hold these other than market factor thingies. Other people will pronounce you wrong after a period of underperformance. So I think you should buy the one that you will keep buying...