Search found 7564 matches

by vineviz
Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Correlation with the US and Struggling to Pick EM/ International
Replies: 7
Views: 535

Re: Developed International Correlation with the US

Do you believe there is any significant benefit to adding developed international to U.S. stocks? What do you think the minimum EM is necessary to capture the majority of potential diversification benefits in an otherwise all U.S. portfolio? David Swensen for example has suggested as a consideratio...
by vineviz
Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VXUS - Why? [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF]
Replies: 31
Views: 2147

Re: VXUS - Why? [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF]

Thanks for the thoughts on this VXUS fund. I will likely call Vanguard and see if I can reduce that holding, if not remove it altogether, or replace it with VWILX or move half of it to VWILX. You’ve decided to ignore all the “good feedback”, then? I’m still curious what you think your motive for re...
by vineviz
Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VXUS - Why? [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF]
Replies: 31
Views: 2147

Re: VXUS - Why? [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF]

This is not "performance chasing" but the observations of a moderately high IQ investor who is questioning international holdings. “I want to buy more of funds that recently performed well” is the very definition of performance chasing. It’s a behavioral error that no amount of excessive IQ can pro...
by vineviz
Wed Sep 23, 2020 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 927
Views: 66865

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

It's a bit concerning to see LTT not act as a hedge during this most recent correction. You have to wonder if it no longer serves the purpose many of us own it for. I believe its either flat or down for the month. Long- term Treasury bonds have an average maturity of 20 years or so, so I encourage ...
by vineviz
Wed Sep 23, 2020 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What bonds should I look at for the next 15 year period?
Replies: 21
Views: 2092

Re: What bonds should I look at for the next 15 year period?

The main difference is that the bond naturally grows shorter in duration over time, whereas using most bond funds you'd need to combine two funds to match that same sort of change to match your (presumably) decreasing investment horizon. Sorry, I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around that. L...
by vineviz
Wed Sep 23, 2020 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Correlation with the US and Struggling to Pick EM/ International
Replies: 7
Views: 535

Re: Developed International Correlation with the US

Isn't the purpose of diversification to find less correlated assets to reduce risk and give you a greater return for the amount of risk you take? I think that's a reasonable way to frame it. Your intuition is right: an emerging markets equity fund would provide more diversification benefits to a US...
by vineviz
Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What bonds should I look at for the next 15 year period?
Replies: 21
Views: 2092

Re: What bonds should I look at for the next 15 year period?

And besides, intermediate and short term bonds are MORE risky to an investor with a long-term investment goal than long term bonds are. Yes, that is true. Now, do you get the same type of long-term protection by buying a fund and holding long-term or is that only with the actual bond themselves? So...
by vineviz
Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: MYGA: State Insurance Coverage
Replies: 34
Views: 1499

Re: MYGA: State Insurance Coverage

Vineviz, Thanks for your interest and contributions on this topic. You indicate that PA has a lifetime aggregate limit of $300K for an individual. Can you provide the reference, i.e. the language, for this? This is a game changer from my standpoint, as I would have more than that at risk. Thanks ag...
by vineviz
Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why is this portfolio wrong?
Replies: 55
Views: 3192

Re: Why is this portfolio wrong?

gf30269 wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:25 pm What do you use for retirement income?
Using a portfolio for retirement income is entirely reasonable, but the portfolio which does that best will be well diversified.

That means including a variety of stocks (US and non-US, small and large, etc.) as well at least some bonds.
by vineviz
Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: MYGA: State Insurance Coverage
Replies: 34
Views: 1499

Re: MYGA: State Insurance Coverage

Let’s say that you bought a $150k MYGA from Company A, which subsequently went into receivership. You would be assured of getting $100k back from the PA guaranty fund. The remaining $50k would be an unsecured claim against the insolvent company. You might get your whole $50k back; you might get not...
by vineviz
Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2789
Views: 204729

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

manlymatt83 wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:52 pm ... so is 50% TSM and 50% SCV until age 50 acceptable?
Acceptable to whom?
by vineviz
Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VXUS - Why? [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF]
Replies: 31
Views: 2147

Re: VXUS - Why? [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF]

greek-yogurt wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:32 pm Am I being unreasonable?
Probably.

VXUS is one of the best-managed, low-cost international equity index funds available. Whatever motivated you to move invest with Vanguard to begin with, that reason is the reason that Vanguard is a reasonable core holding for you.
by vineviz
Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2789
Views: 204729

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

But what is that assumption of lower diversification based off of? Small rate movement? Lower yields? A change in how convexity behaves? I wouldn't give it much thought: the argument for "lower diversification" almost always comes from someone trying to sell investors on something other than Treasu...
by vineviz
Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why is this portfolio wrong?
Replies: 55
Views: 3192

Re: Why is this portfolio wrong?

It is not by coincidence the most successful financial forum on the planet is named after him. We honor him for his role in the creation and advocacy of low-cost index funds, not for his intellectual leadership in capital asset pricing models. "A man's got to know his limitations." ~ Harry Callahan
by vineviz
Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: MYGA: State Insurance Coverage
Replies: 34
Views: 1499

Re: MYGA: State Insurance Coverage

$300,000 if contract has been annuitized $100,000 if contract is in deferred status" The last three lines - isn't a MYGA in deferred status therefore the insured limit is 100K? No, a MYGA is not a deferred annuity. The tax on the income is deferred until withdrawn, but contract itself is not "in de...
by vineviz
Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: MYGA: State Insurance Coverage
Replies: 34
Views: 1499

Re: MYGA: State Insurance Coverage

I'm glad I stumbled upon this thread. I'm also from Pennsylvania and have been considering a MYGA. There is a lot of references online that state Pa guarantees up to 300K. I think this is incorrect for a MYGA. The Pa website guarantee association, https://www.palifega.org, doesn't provide a clear a...
by vineviz
Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help Managing Father's Finances
Replies: 13
Views: 1177

Re: Help Managing Father's Finances

doubledeuce80 wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:42 pm-If you were to move the Fidelity IRA into fixed income index funds with a 4 yr time horizon before sold and disbursed to his children what would you recommend?
Mostly I’d recommend not doing that.

His portfolio is already 60% cash: what advantage is gained by taking the other 40% into bonds?
by vineviz
Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Never Ever Rebalance Bonds into Stocks?
Replies: 85
Views: 4916

Re: Never Ever Rebalance Bonds into Stocks?

Agreed, but the issue is that TIPS are often discussed here as being the asset class that offers the free lunch. Just save enough for a liability matching portfolio, put that into TIPS and you're golden. Perhaps some people are under the impression that $1 in a taxable account will fund $1 worth of...
by vineviz
Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: iMac - wait or buy now, if so which one?
Replies: 60
Views: 3625

Re: iMac - wait or buy now, if so which one?

I always through 8GB of RAM was plenty because that is what comes on most of the Macs. If you are not doing any significant photo or video editing, I’m sure 8GB is going to be enough. However I agree with others that the long useful life of Mac computers is a good reason to go with 16GB unless the ...
by vineviz
Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What bonds should I look at for the next 15 year period?
Replies: 21
Views: 2092

Re: What bonds should I look at for the next 15 year period?

We are at the end of a massive 35+ years bond bull market during which 10 yr Treasury yields dropped from 15% to 0.6% and inflation declined similarly and consistently. Does there not remain the possibility of the bond bull market continuing if yields plummet into negative territory? Imagine how ne...
by vineviz
Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Never Ever Rebalance Bonds into Stocks?
Replies: 85
Views: 4916

Re: Never Ever Rebalance Bonds into Stocks?

Actually it is. Stock ownership can enjoy deferral of taxes on gains indefinitely, maybe forever, under current tax law. Muni bonds avoid taxation. Real Estate can appreciate with tax deferral/tax free. TIPS are bought to protect against inflation. Yet if we get that very inflation, on a large scal...
by vineviz
Tue Sep 22, 2020 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Never Ever Rebalance Bonds into Stocks?
Replies: 85
Views: 4916

Re: Never Ever Rebalance Bonds into Stocks?

Another possibility is that you could use a liability matching portfolio (LMP) approach using I bonds and TIPS to cover your essential spending in retirement and everything else in stocks. But with a large taxable account, there's the "taxflation" problem. If we get big inflation like we've seen af...
by vineviz
Tue Sep 22, 2020 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What bonds should I look at for the next 15 year period?
Replies: 21
Views: 2092

Re: What bonds should I look at for the next 15 year period?

Since rates are already so low, would it be good to tilt towards intermediate and short term bonds? Intermediate treasury bonds provide a hedge during market drops and good protection against unexpected deflation. Long term treasuries seem to be too risky. I don't know if this is market timing or j...
by vineviz
Tue Sep 22, 2020 2:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retire at 66 , SS at 70 , Funding the Gap
Replies: 8
Views: 1060

Re: Retire at 66 , SS at 70 , Funding the Gap

Since i will not have SS from 66 until 70 i am considering the following for income : Dividends from non Qualified , Selling 1 gold coin a month ($1900/mo) , any additional i could take from IRA to lower eventual RMDs . Any thoughts on using the Gold coins to supplement this period ? Anythoughs on ...
by vineviz
Tue Sep 22, 2020 2:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: iMac - wait or buy now, if so which one?
Replies: 60
Views: 3625

Re: iMac - wait or buy now, if so which one?

We just bought a new iMac as they were updated pretty recently, I believe. FWIW, while I think the large screen is amazing, it's REALLY big. Depending on where you put it, it may be too big. If, however, you also want to use it for streaming TV, the 27" would be a nice option. Given the size of our...
by vineviz
Tue Sep 22, 2020 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year
Replies: 93
Views: 4761

Re: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year

The idea that loading up a fund with multiple attractive factor loadings automatically produces future outperformance seems to be more a tenet of faith in true believers than real investing results certainly in this example. This “idea” seems to be one that anti-factor advocates ASSUME that factor ...
by vineviz
Tue Sep 22, 2020 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year
Replies: 93
Views: 4761

Re: VFMF has had a bad year

This is a good response. I think that investor utility functions often get lost in these discussions. Agreed. I think that if more people understood just how rooted their beliefs are in a (clearly faulty) assumption that all investors have identical needs and preferences we’d have a lot fewer argum...
by vineviz
Tue Sep 22, 2020 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why is this portfolio wrong?
Replies: 55
Views: 3192

Re: Why is this portfolio wrong?

Jack Bogle's findings are based on real life fund data, and it shows Value/Growth even for long periods. When in doubt always trust Jack Bogle. Bogle provided us with a great example of how you can confirm even your least justified biases through the a combination of cherry-picking data misdirectio...
by vineviz
Tue Sep 22, 2020 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedging interest rate risk?
Replies: 31
Views: 2022

Re: Hedging interest rate risk?

This short piece refutes (among other things) the boilerplate advice that bonds zig when stocks zag: https://movement.capital/the-bond-offer-you-can-refuse/ The "zig/zag" analogy is merely that (an analogy) so I don't know how one would go about "refuting" it. Certainly I see nothing in that articl...
by vineviz
Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedging interest rate risk?
Replies: 31
Views: 2022

Re: Hedging interest rate risk?

This short piece refutes (among other things) the boilerplate advice that bonds zig when stocks zag: https://movement.capital/the-bond-offer-you-can-refuse/ The "zig/zag" analogy is merely that (an analogy) so I don't know how one would go about "refuting" it. Certainly I see nothing in that articl...
by vineviz
Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computer Monitor, what to get? (So many options)
Replies: 24
Views: 1252

Re: Computer Monitor, what to get? (So many options)

If you use a 4k screen at 100% scaling, everything will be quite small, which is not what most people want. The real advantage of a 4k or higher screen is that you can use an alternate scaling factor which gives you whatever size elements you need, but the higher resolution makes everything much sh...
by vineviz
Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computer Monitor, what to get? (So many options)
Replies: 24
Views: 1252

Re: Computer Monitor, what to get? (So many options)

I’m between getting a new iMac or just replacing my current external monitor hooked to my MacBook Pro and getting another laptop. I have a 27 or 30” curved Samsung 1080p display currently. It was cheap (less than $200) but it looks pretty washed out and dull when I’ve been used to the Retina displa...
by vineviz
Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why is this portfolio wrong?
Replies: 55
Views: 3192

Re: Why is this portfolio wrong?

2 1/2 years from retirement. Basically am where I want to be in terms of investments right now...future contributions are gravy. I've had the same portfolio for years. 50% SPY, 50% QQQ. May occasionally go 10% cash. No international, no emerging markets, no bonds. Should I change and why??? Thanks,...
by vineviz
Mon Sep 21, 2020 7:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Consumer Printer Prices
Replies: 27
Views: 1420

Re: Consumer Printer Prices

As a former printer repair guy (long ago) I wouldn't have any issues buying a new Xerox in the $200 range more likely I'd spend the extra $100 and get something a tad better. It depends on if you want toner or ink. Most big box store ink printers are junk so you go with the cheap thing that costs m...
by vineviz
Mon Sep 21, 2020 8:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying off sub 4% mortgage interest rate early
Replies: 157
Views: 12281

Re: Paying off sub 4% mortgage interest rate early

Is anyone who has a sub 4% fixed mortgage interest rate paying it off aggressively early? If you are, why? At 4%-ish, there is absolutely no better fixed income investment you can make than paying down a mortgage. Certainly no investor should be holding bonds in any taxable account while carrying a...
by vineviz
Mon Sep 21, 2020 5:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lars Kroijer: If you are not in Total World (VT or VTWAX) you are market timing!
Replies: 46
Views: 3703

Re: Lars Kroijer: If you are not in Total World (VT or VTWAX) you are market timing!

Your portfolio is thus a combination of the risk free asset (govt bonds) and the market portfolio (global equity portfolio). The percentage varies by the needs of the investor for risk v return. Also, in modern portfolios theory (MPT) the market portfolio isn’t just an equity portfolio: it contains...
by vineviz
Mon Sep 21, 2020 5:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lars Kroijer: If you are not in Total World (VT or VTWAX) you are market timing!
Replies: 46
Views: 3703

Re: Lars Kroijer: If you are not in Total World (VT or VTWAX) you are market timing!

Efficient Market theory says you should hold the market portfolio. The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) says nothing of the sort. EMH makes specific predictions about the way that a market incorporates new information into prices. It doesn’t prescribe that any particular investor should hold any p...
by vineviz
Sun Sep 20, 2020 7:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The WR in practice [Withdrawal Rate]
Replies: 67
Views: 3812

Re: The WR in practice [Withdrawal Rate]

Can you clarify what would be, in your opinion, the SWR that would allow for a 60y retirement starting from today? If you had everything in Ibonds, that would be 1.67%, so do you at least agree that would be an absolute floor, or are you thinking that by investing in equities it should be even lowe...
by vineviz
Sun Sep 20, 2020 7:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The WR in practice [Withdrawal Rate]
Replies: 67
Views: 3812

Re: The WR in practice [Withdrawal Rate]

When Bengen did the original work on sustainable withdrawal, he found that the inflation of the 1970's was more challenging for a retiree with US assets than was the deflation of the 1920's. There was work done I think by Wade Pfau that found that the inflation of the 1970's was leas challenging th...
by vineviz
Sun Sep 20, 2020 6:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The WR in practice [Withdrawal Rate]
Replies: 67
Views: 3812

Re: The WR in practice [Withdrawal Rate]

I'm seeing here based on this calc, with 100% equities, for a 60 year time horizon: 3% WR gives me 100% 3.5% WR gets to 98% https://earlyretirementnow.com/2016/12/07/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-1-intro/ Any thoughts on this? This was my original plan. I think that guides like t...
by vineviz
Sun Sep 20, 2020 6:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Adjustments for Retirement : More Defense?
Replies: 21
Views: 1339

Re: Portfolio Adjustments for Retirement : More Defense?

Thanks. Certainly I've always believed in diversification and have always kept international at over 30% of total stock and until the last 3 years was at least 60 stocks/40 bonds. Now that I finally may have enough I have an urge to 'circle the wagons' and play more defense even though it may be se...
by vineviz
Sun Sep 20, 2020 5:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The WR in practice [Withdrawal Rate]
Replies: 67
Views: 3812

Re: The WR in practice [Withdrawal Rate]

:wink: The future is always uncertain: I don’t know what the future looks like. We CAN see what the present conditions are, however, and they’ve never been less favorable for sustained retirement income in the past than they are now. Except for inflation (or lack thereof)? Expected inflation is pret...
by vineviz
Sun Sep 20, 2020 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The WR in practice [Withdrawal Rate]
Replies: 67
Views: 3812

Re: The WR in practice [Withdrawal Rate]

The future is always uncertain: I don’t know what the future looks like. We CAN see what the present conditions are, however, and they’ve never been less favorable for sustained retirement income in the past than they are now. Except for inflation (or lack thereof)? Expected inflation is pretty muc...
by vineviz
Sun Sep 20, 2020 2:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The WR in practice [Withdrawal Rate]
Replies: 67
Views: 3812

Re: The WR in practice [Withdrawal Rate]

Wow. Did not realize the future is looking worse then at any time during recorded market history? :D Actually, this isn't far from the truth: the combination of equity valuations and expected real bond returns right now is plausibly the worst it has been during the lifetime of anyone participating ...
by vineviz
Sun Sep 20, 2020 2:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Quicken Disaster!
Replies: 185
Views: 9486

Re: Quicken Disaster!

I reinstalled Quicken on another computer and nothing changed: cannot open older Quicken data files. Did you install the full drive image you have from Acronis onto a different computer? I can’t see that not getting you back to a working state. Don’t try restoring pieces, do a full image restore. N...
by vineviz
Sun Sep 20, 2020 2:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The WR in practice [Withdrawal Rate]
Replies: 67
Views: 3812

Re: The WR in practice [Withdrawal Rate]

Wow. Did not realize the future is looking worse then at any time during recorded market history? :D Actually, this isn't far from the truth: the combination of equity valuations and expected real bond returns right now is plausibly the worst it has been during the lifetime of anyone participating ...
by vineviz
Sun Sep 20, 2020 2:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Adjustments for Retirement : More Defense?
Replies: 21
Views: 1339

Re: Portfolio Adjustments for Retirement : More Defense?

I may retire next year and would be grateful for any recommendations on adjustments to my portfolio. I do not require further growth of assets, only to maximize the chance assets will cover retirement. I'm looking for ways to 'de-risk' as much as possible. ..... 1. To make AA more defensive but sti...
by vineviz
Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 10475

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

Now next step. If that investor who "knows nothing" can now confidently know "I'm going to live in country A for the rest of my life" we now have a bit of information that differentiates them from the global average. Should the new default aggregate portfolio be that of their fellow countrymen (ass...
by vineviz
Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are retail investors driving the market? But I thought 10 percent richest own 90% of market?
Replies: 36
Views: 3842

Re: Are retail investors driving the market? But I thought 10 percent richest own 90% of market?

The large investors who hold have no impact on prices. Nor do people buying index funds to hold for retirement. Of course holders impact prices. Price is a function of supply and demand. Supply is driven by, among other factors, those who hold. Holders by definition will not sell what they hold, th...
by vineviz
Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 10475

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

But to my original question wouldn't it make sense for investor A to say (for the purposes of determining their AA) "what is the A/B cap weighed allocation for all country A investors" as opposed to "what is the A/B allocation for all country A and B investors"? The former seems to be a way to soli...