Search found 1291 matches

by vineviz
Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS in Portfoliovisualizer's Monte Carlo simulation
Replies: 3
Views: 239

Re: TIPS in Portfoliovisualizer's Monte Carlo simulation

Real interest rate. Real interest rates can and do go up and down with tips. This. TIPS prices have had serious volatility, with annual returns swinging between +16% and -9% depending on maturity. In fact, in real (inflation adjusted terms) most major TIPS funds have not regained their losses from ...
by vineviz
Sun Sep 23, 2018 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much is too much in one stock?
Replies: 9
Views: 794

Re: How much is too much in one stock?

I wouldn’t worry about any stock worth less than 5% of the total portfolio, unless maybe if you had more than two in the same industry or sector.
by vineviz
Sun Sep 23, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: “Floating Basement Flooring” - Which Product?
Replies: 5
Views: 462

Re: “Floating Basement Flooring” - Which Product?

I made the mistake of carpeting our finished basement room many years ago. The wall-to-wall carpet sits on the concrete floor. The carpet has gotten wet on and off over the years (probably coming up through the concrete), and I suspect this has led to mold. I need to remove the carpet and put down ...
by vineviz
Sun Sep 23, 2018 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap tilt
Replies: 67
Views: 4206

Re: Small cap tilt

Curioser and curioser. The 2015 Ibbotson Classic Yearbook, p. 57, "Description of the Basic Series" says their series is: NYSE Fifth Quintile Returns (1926-1981) -- same as Siegel DFA US 9-10 Small Company Portfolio (January 1982 - March 2001) -- probably the same as Siegel (did he transcribe the n...
by vineviz
Sun Sep 23, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap tilt
Replies: 67
Views: 4206

Re: Small cap tilt

https://i.postimg.cc/LhF1FCQS/Untitled.png Every downward sloped period on the chart was a period where there was no size premium Over the overall 35+ years since the size premium was "discovered" and the Banz paper published there has been no overall size premium, every up period was matched with ...
by vineviz
Sun Sep 23, 2018 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap tilt
Replies: 67
Views: 4206

Re: Small cap tilt

...to wait the 30 to 40 years it can take for the premium to show up. This is among the most persistent misconceptions about factor investing I encounter on this forum. If it is an incorrect assessment, please explain how it is incorrect instead of just stating your belief. You may be correct, but ...
by vineviz
Sun Sep 23, 2018 1:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: squeaky lock and hard to turn key
Replies: 12
Views: 604

Re: squeaky lock and hard to turn key

Can I fix this by putting something in the lock somehow? WD40? Some graphite stuff? Something else? Or do I have to call a locksmith? Graphite is probably the best choice. WD40 and other oils will work short-term (and possibly dissolve the coatings in the lock, making a small problem much worse), b...
by vineviz
Sun Sep 23, 2018 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best corporate long-term bond fund
Replies: 18
Views: 1591

Re: Best corporate long-term bond fund

vinevix wrote: By way of example, imagine so-called "conservative" portfolio that is 30% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX) and 70% Vanguard Long-Term Investment-Grade Fund (VWESX). Over the past 25 years such a portfolio would have had an annualized standard deviation of monthly return...
by vineviz
Sun Sep 23, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [Non-US] VWRD or VDEV+VDEM?
Replies: 3
Views: 150

Re: [Non-US] VWRD or VDEV+VDEM?

VWRD = FTSE all world equity index. VDEV = FTSE developed world equity index. VDEM = FTSE EM equity index. Our only equity holding is VWRD: ER = 0.25%. 54% USA + 8% Japan + 6% UK + 3% China + 3% Germany + 3% Canada + 3% Switzerland + 2% Australia (top 8). If we use 75% VDEV + 25% VDEM instead: ER =...
by vineviz
Sun Sep 23, 2018 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bump on the road from active to passive
Replies: 24
Views: 2253

Re: A bump on the road from active to passive

It provides confidence that these active managers were lucky in the past. That doesn’t tell us much about how lucky they will be in the future. It is more than just luck. Perhaps. But success is never present without luck. Whether their particular skills and techniques will continue to outperform t...
by vineviz
Sun Sep 23, 2018 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Fund Question
Replies: 13
Views: 976

Re: Bond Fund Question

I use a modified 3 fund port, swapping in Treasuries for TBM for the superior risk insurance. If I want more risk, I get more equities. Simple. Yes. In fact, because treasuries are more effective diversifiers than corporate bonds you probably SHOULD hold more equities than if you were using total b...
by vineviz
Sun Sep 23, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap tilt
Replies: 67
Views: 4206

Re: Small cap tilt

JoMoney wrote:
Sun Sep 23, 2018 11:02 am
vineviz wrote:
Sun Sep 23, 2018 10:53 am
... Yet prior to 1978ish, the OE composite somehow shows virtually no relationship to real world returns....
Part of the problem, is that the fund data IS based on real world returns....
Sorry, but no. A composite index that has no constituent data is NOT "based on real world returns".
by vineviz
Sun Sep 23, 2018 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap tilt
Replies: 67
Views: 4206

Re: Small cap tilt

(That still leaves other issues. One is mixing up the issue of raw return in small-caps, which has been higher than the market, with risk-adjusted return , which is in a maybe-so maybe-not area. The second is, if it doesn't have higher risk-adjusted return, does it have low enough correlation with ...
by vineviz
Sun Sep 23, 2018 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap tilt
Replies: 67
Views: 4206

Re: Small cap tilt

I understand you don't like the fact that the data based on real world mutual funds underperformed the academic reconstructions, but if you're going to say it's an "incorrect interpretation" it would make for better dialogue if you gave reasons for why you feel your interpretation (whatever interpr...
by vineviz
Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bump on the road from active to passive
Replies: 24
Views: 2253

Re: A bump on the road from active to passive

In looking at the components of STAR and the TD 2025, the best I can figure is that the bonds in STAR (LTIG, STIG, GNMA) outperformed the bonds in TD 2025 (TBM, TIBM) and the U.S. equity components of STAR (Morgan Growth, U.S. Growth, Primecap, Explorer, Windsor, and Windsor II) outperformed TSM in...
by vineviz
Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap tilt
Replies: 67
Views: 4206

Re: Small cap tilt

... This Siegel "suggestion" is one of the most oft-repeated falsehoods I see on this forum. This is at least the second time in this post alone. ... Your reconstructed data conflicts with the reconstructed data he used. We used the same dataset, except I showed it up until the present. Morningstar...
by vineviz
Sun Sep 23, 2018 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap tilt
Replies: 67
Views: 4206

Re: Small cap tilt

In fact, using his data-set for small caps, Wharton Prof. Jeremey Siegel has suggested that the entire small-cap "premium" relies on an unusual period between 1975-1983 , if you remove that period and the highest 9 years from large-caps and perform monte carlo simulations small caps underperform in...
by vineviz
Sat Sep 22, 2018 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best corporate long-term bond fund
Replies: 18
Views: 1591

Re: Best corporate long-term bond fund

fennewaldaj wrote:
Sat Sep 22, 2018 10:40 pm

Isn't it conceivable that we enter a period where corporate bonds do pretty well (not many downgrades and defaults) but stocks do mediocre?
Conceivable? Sure.

Likely? No.

In years when stocks have lost money, corporate bonds have underperformed treasuries by an average of about 200 bps.
by vineviz
Sat Sep 22, 2018 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best corporate long-term bond fund
Replies: 18
Views: 1591

Re: Best corporate long-term bond fund

Better bet: Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Index Fund Admiral Shares (VLGSX) I have those. But having too many may backfire. You just have to look at historical efficient frontiers. They offer less return for the same volatility (vs corporate), what it's ok if you own a high % of stocks. But if your p...
by vineviz
Sat Sep 22, 2018 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing my first million
Replies: 31
Views: 4314

Re: Investing my first million

I think the 85/15 idea is a great one. Possibly my only concern with VTMFX, compared to a traditional balanced fund, is the lack of small cap stocks. Especially since Vanguard has an excellent tax-managed small cap fund in VTMSX. If you can handle three funds instead of just two, maybe this? 65% Va...
by vineviz
Sat Sep 22, 2018 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best corporate long-term bond fund
Replies: 18
Views: 1591

Re: Best corporate long-term bond fund

Better bet: Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Index Fund Admiral Shares (VLGSX) I have those. But having too many may backfire. You just have to look at historical efficient frontiers. They offer less return for the same volatility (vs corporate), what it's ok if you own a high % of stocks. But if your p...
by vineviz
Sat Sep 22, 2018 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap tilt
Replies: 67
Views: 4206

Re: Small cap tilt

Here's a link to the Fund Performance page, in case you want to play with different dates etc.: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performance?s=y&symbol=SCFUNDS&benchmark=VFINX&startDate=1%2F1%2F1992&endDate=09%2F21%2F2018 PortfolioVisualizer links don't preserve custom portfolios or assets....
by vineviz
Sat Sep 22, 2018 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap tilt
Replies: 67
Views: 4206

Re: Small cap tilt

ruralavalon wrote:
Sat Sep 22, 2018 2:32 pm
I am not very familiar with portfolio visualizer. Is that total return or share price?

I couldn't get your link to work.
This comparison was using total return for both portfolios.

And I'm sorry about the link. See my reply below for a new link and some more details.
by vineviz
Sat Sep 22, 2018 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing my first million
Replies: 31
Views: 4314

Re: Investing my first million

By the way, here's what Morningstar's analyst has to say about VTMFX (emphasis mine): Vanguard Tax-Managed Balanced's effective tax-management, low fees, and seasoned managers justify its Morningstar Analyst Rating of Gold. This balanced fund is composed of Silver-rated muni fund Vanguard Intermedia...
by vineviz
Sat Sep 22, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing my first million
Replies: 31
Views: 4314

Re: Investing my first million

As for the rest, the structure you’re suggesting is indeed a bit too involved for me, so I think I’ll just stick with 85% VTMFX and 15% VTIAX which seems to roughly meet the same goal as far as I can tell. What do you think? I think the 85/15 idea is a great one. Possibly my only concern with VTMFX...
by vineviz
Sat Sep 22, 2018 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing my first million
Replies: 31
Views: 4314

Re: Investing my first million

Thanks again everyone, this forum really is goldmine (pun unintended). Would it be reasonable to also open multiple high-yield savings accounts (avg. 1.8% APY) and put $250k in each for some of the money I don’t plan to invest in the short term? No, I don't think that's reasonable at least unless y...
by vineviz
Sat Sep 22, 2018 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap tilt
Replies: 67
Views: 4206

Re: Small cap tilt

Here is what I see comparing past total return of small-cap and S&P 500 funds. Can anyone suggest other funds to use for a comparison? I made a custom benchmark in PortfolioVisualizer that contains every small cap fund I could find with an inception date before 12/31/1991 and an expense ratio of 1....
by vineviz
Sat Sep 22, 2018 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter-scatter sidebar: sequence of returns in accumulation
Replies: 5
Views: 531

Re: Matter-scatter sidebar: sequence of returns in accumulation

It does emphasize that in the real world, with real career patterns, your time frame for investing is not really 65 - 20 = 45 years. The effective average time of contributed dollars in the market is going to be much shorter than that. Indeed. This analysis (for which I'm personally grateful, by th...
by vineviz
Sat Sep 22, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reverse Mortgages - Pros, Cons
Replies: 55
Views: 3606

Re: Reverse Mortgages - Pros, Cons

Personally, I have always thought of a reverse mortgage as the final desperate step, to be implemented only after everything else in a financial plan has irretrievably failed. I think this is the common view, which may be one reason they aren't as popular in the U.S. as they probably should be. The...
by vineviz
Sat Sep 22, 2018 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The bond side of my asset allocation ...
Replies: 21
Views: 988

Re: The bond side of my asset allocation ...

The SEC Yield is a calculation using a formula mandated by the SEC as a way of stating and predicting future yield. As such it is an opinion about future yield, not a guarantee. I can understand that … so IF the prediction is accurate and the yield does actually turn out to be 3.20% would I have ma...
by vineviz
Sat Sep 22, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The bond side of my asset allocation ...
Replies: 21
Views: 988

Re: The bond side of my asset allocation ...

Right now I think that asset allocation is basically a split between two ideas … "stocks" which I think of as things that can increase in value but have risk and "bonds" which are safe and hopefully keep pace with inflation. This is often the way that stocks and bonds are discussed, but it is not a...
by vineviz
Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Selling off funds. timing question
Replies: 10
Views: 725

Re: Selling off funds. timing question

Also, there is no advantage in waiting for the dividend distributions.

Just make the exchanges when you are ready, and sit out the market for theee days.
by vineviz
Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap tilt
Replies: 67
Views: 4206

Re: Small cap tilt

Dulocracy wrote:
Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:26 am

...to wait the 30 to 40 years it can take for the premium to show up.
This is among the most persistent misconceptions about factor investing I encounter on this forum.
by vineviz
Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?
Replies: 55
Views: 7646

Re: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?

I just pointed out that efficient prices are a higher bar than having prices alone. With the caveat that we have been discussing an implausibly extreme hypothetical scenario, remember that the full term for the thing you ar pointing out is " market efficient prices". An efficient market is merely o...
by vineviz
Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?
Replies: 55
Views: 7646

Re: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?

Do you understand that "price discovery" requires lots of information, and that information is the product of research? To say that one investor, or anything close to that, is sufficient is not a serious response. This is an an understandable misconception, but a misconception nonetheless. "Price d...
by vineviz
Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need 401k Portfolio asset allocation recommendations - 35yo with 200k.
Replies: 9
Views: 884

Re: Need 401k Portfolio asset allocation recommendations - 35yo with 200k.

Below is my current portfolio makeup, with a balance of $200k. I am currently 35 and would like to retire around 60-65. I will max out my 401k plan between now and retirement on all years, along with maxing out a Roth or traditional IRA on some years. I don't expect to have any other retirement ass...
by vineviz
Sat Sep 22, 2018 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?
Replies: 55
Views: 7646

Re: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?

Do you understand that "price discovery" requires lots of information, and that information is the product of research? To say that one investor, or anything close to that, is sufficient is not a serious response. This is an an understandable misconception, but a misconception nonetheless. "Price d...
by vineviz
Sat Sep 22, 2018 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Fund Question
Replies: 13
Views: 976

Re: Bond Fund Question

thank you both for your help. I see what you're pointing out, Livesoft.... so maybe what I do is leave my Total Bond as is, but for future contributions, put into the Short Term Bond fund (at least diversify the bond holdings)..... thanks again. As long as you are contributing to the portfolio, tot...
by vineviz
Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?
Replies: 55
Views: 7646

Re: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?

Major market meltdowns are pretty common. I hope to live long enough to see several severe drops. Will the drops be CAUSED by indexing? Of course not. Indexers accept what the prices are. The prices are set by the active management side. The active managers are losing investors as more and more inv...
by vineviz
Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stable Value Similat to What Bond Fund
Replies: 9
Views: 728

Re: Stable Value Similat to What Bond Fund

Keep in mind that stable value funds aren't really investments in the classic sense. Nothing whose value is perfectly stable is.

They are essentially insurance vehicles and/or banking services.
by vineviz
Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Diversify? Why Not 100% Global Stocks
Replies: 48
Views: 5698

Re: Why Diversify? Why Not 100% Global Stocks

Setting aside the not owning any bonds part, the rational reason for US investors to not carry a global cap weight is that currency risk is real and - more important - the market makes no guarantees that it will even out. It might; but it might not. Beware those who guarantee the former happening. ...
by vineviz
Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Switching Vxus (tot int vanguard) to ftipx (Fid tot int)
Replies: 9
Views: 467

Re: Switching Vxus (tot int vanguard) to ftipx (Fid tot int)

I’m thinking of selling about 140k of etf Vxus (Vang tot international) and switch to ftipx (Fidelity total international) for simplicity and to save some on fees in my 401k. Any downsides anyone can think of? Nope Can one sell 140k of the etf fairly easily? Will fidelity let me invest this much in...
by vineviz
Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Switching Vxus (tot int vanguard) to ftipx (Fid tot int)
Replies: 9
Views: 467

Re: Switching Vxus (tot int vanguard) to ftipx (Fid tot int)

I’m thinking of selling about 140k of etf Vxus (Vang tot international) and switch to ftipx (Fidelity total international) for simplicity and to save some on fees in my 401k. Any downsides anyone can think of? Nope Can one sell 140k of the etf fairly easily? Will fidelity let me invest this much in...
by vineviz
Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SCHF & VWO - how to balance? [Schwab Int'l & Vanguard Emerging Market]
Replies: 1
Views: 110

Re: SCHF & VWO - how to balance? [Schwab Int'l & Vanguard Emerging Market]

I am hoping for some help, I have SCHF and VWO in my corporate 401k and am curious what ratio these should be in relation to each other to best approximate a good total international index. I was thinking 3:1 because I think VWO is ~80% EM and EM comprises ~20% of market cap, but thoughts would be ...
by vineviz
Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SLYV vs IJS [SPDR vs. iShares S&P 600 Small Cap Value]
Replies: 99
Views: 5265

Re: SLYV vs IJS [SPDR vs. iShares S&P 600 Small Cap Value]

Doc wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:33 pm
That's a riddle.
What's the riddle?
by vineviz
Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio with 3.2% Yield
Replies: 16
Views: 2160

Re: Portfolio with 3.2% Yield

I dont understand the risk, the average annual total return of this portfolio is a little higher than 11% ... There's a typo in that sentence. The total return has been a little better than 11%, but there is no present tense when it comes to investment returns. You need to know this: picking funds ...
by vineviz
Fri Sep 21, 2018 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SLYV vs IJS [SPDR vs. iShares S&P 600 Small Cap Value]
Replies: 99
Views: 5265

Re: SLYV vs IJS [SPDR vs. iShares S&P 600 Small Cap Value]

With numbers like this and trades happening at intervals of some some 10 to 20 minutes apart the fact that when they last traded they satisfied condition A) does not give me a warm and cozy feeling that if I trade rigth now it will still be close. I don't think you're ever going to get a "warm and ...
by vineviz
Fri Sep 21, 2018 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: One thing I dislike about TDFs
Replies: 20
Views: 834

Re: One thing I dislike about TDFs

This goes against Bogleheads rule of thumb of no more than 20% in international equities, right? Am I missing something? This is the reason why I went with the lazy portfolio instead. Personally, I'm 32 yrs old with 65% domestic, 15% international, 20% bonds. There are some Bogleheads who advocate ...
by vineviz
Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?
Replies: 45
Views: 2391

Re: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?

patrick013 wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:59 pm
Well the YTM calc does the same thing so duration isn't absolutely needed.
This isn’t even a little bit true.
by vineviz
Thu Sep 20, 2018 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds vs. Individual Bonds: Can someone quanitfy?
Replies: 31
Views: 1784

Re: Bond Funds vs. Individual Bonds: Can someone quanitfy?

What if you're retired and taking monthly redemptions from your total return managed portfolio or bond funds? Then your investment horizon is 30 days, and 6.2 years duration (TBM) is much greater than 30 days. So this common investment situation fails the "rising interest rates will NOT hurt you" t...