Search found 4366 matches

by vineviz
Tue Jul 16, 2019 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Full list of Vanguard ETFs that are cheaper than their index funds?
Replies: 39
Views: 2420

Re: Full list of Vanguard ETFs that are cheaper than their index funds?

I am feeling pressured by this and it is making me upset. I feel like they are trying to take some advantage over me through this. Is it possible you're assigning a motive to Vanguard that isn't necessarily there? It's always possible that some customers will experience some corporate communication...
by vineviz
Tue Jul 16, 2019 4:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard TD funds
Replies: 35
Views: 1931

Re: Vanguard TD funds

TDFs worked well for us until we retired and needed to start withdrawals. When one has only a single TDF, how does one withdraw from the stock fund (only) when stocks outperform bonds? A target date fund, because of their continual rebalancing, effectively automatically do this for you. In a TDF, w...
by vineviz
Tue Jul 16, 2019 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 462
Views: 18655

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

fennewaldaj wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 4:29 pm
The risk stories that I have heard sound pretty strange and unconvincing.
Perhaps so, but it pays to remember that in finance may things which seem intuitive aren't true and vice versa.
by vineviz
Tue Jul 16, 2019 4:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International Bond Fund - yes or no?
Replies: 11
Views: 816

Re: International Bond Fund - yes or no?

Should I think about International bonds? I would likely purchase by selling stock, based on the market run up. This is the most important part of your post, I think. Don't change your asset allocation simply because the stock markets have gone up. Stock markets USUALLY go up, and are USUALLY near ...
by vineviz
Tue Jul 16, 2019 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Full list of Vanguard ETFs that are cheaper than their index funds?
Replies: 39
Views: 2420

Re: Full list of Vanguard ETFs that are cheaper than their index funds?

But you're not factoring in dollar cost averaging (adding new money as you save) and dividend reinvestment. I think this fact patter is more like a "buy and hold investor" when in reality, they may technically be trading 20-30 times a year. It doesn't matter how often you make a purchase: the only ...
by vineviz
Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling ETF partial shares
Replies: 6
Views: 265

Re: Selling ETF partial shares

I usually buy mutual funds and not ETF's. I did buy some VTI last year because I did not have the $3000 minimum to invest in VTSAX. Now I have enough for VTSAX, but how do I sell partial shares of an ETF? I have 28.52 shares of VTI in a Vanguard Roth IRA account. When I tried to sell it, Vanguard w...
by vineviz
Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New family car and safety considerations
Replies: 46
Views: 2422

Re: New family car and safety considerations

I can fit a 4'x8' sheet of plywood and a pile of 10' long 2x4 boards inside my Honda Odyssey. I don't do it often, but I have done it several times. A RAV4 can do neither of those things. The one time every 5-10 years that the OP needs to haul 4x8 sheets of plywood/drywall, he can rent a truck at H...
by vineviz
Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Full list of Vanguard ETFs that are cheaper than their index funds?
Replies: 39
Views: 2420

Re: Full list of Vanguard ETFs that are cheaper than their index funds?

The 30-day average bid/ask spread is much greater than many of these differences. The Expense ratio advantage for mid-cap (VO) is 0.01% but the average bid/ask spread is 0.03% of the market price. If you're a buy-and-hold investor, it doesn't take long for the expense ratio advantage to overwhelm t...
by vineviz
Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does factor investing only work if you rebalance?
Replies: 13
Views: 793

Re: Does factor investing only work if you rebalance?

Holding diverse equity factors may yield a small rebalance factor but correlations are quite high; you'll find this works a lot better with something like a long-term treasury fund which historically has had low/negative correlation to equities and enough volatility to take advantage of it. While t...
by vineviz
Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New family car and safety considerations
Replies: 46
Views: 2422

Re: New family car and safety considerations

You stated that a compact SUV is "not going to have the space for a family vehicle." That is absolutely a ridiculous statement. You use the word "ridiculous" too much. Ridiculous overuse of a ridiculous word. :wink: Your ridiculous is my semi-ridiculous. It is ridiculous to argue over ridiculousnes...
by vineviz
Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ultra short term bond ETF comparison - saving account alternative
Replies: 6
Views: 686

Re: Ultra short term bond ETF comparison - saving account alternative

As a reserve account which is genuinely an emergency fund and is managed separately, my view is that such a fund should contain 20% to 30% in equities. Emergency funds can remain unused for years on end, losing purchasing power due to inflation if held entirely in very short duration bonds or cash....
by vineviz
Tue Jul 16, 2019 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 462
Views: 18655

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

Really? Clearly more profitable companies are less risky than less profitable ones. It's really hard to create a good risk story there (I should have added the word good in my first post). I would never suggest that risk is the only possible explanation for the quality factor, merely that there are...
by vineviz
Tue Jul 16, 2019 11:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ultra short term bond ETF comparison - saving account alternative
Replies: 6
Views: 686

Re: Ultra short term bond ETF comparison - saving account alternative

Below is the comparison I did on Ultra short term bond ETFs. I do not have access to Vanguard money market fund. I have to keep money Merrill Edge/Bank of America for a few years, that limits other options. I have my cash reserve in SHV, ICSH, VCSH and cash. (around 40%, 20%, 15%, 25%). Cash reserv...
by vineviz
Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College cost prediction and savings for 5, 3, and newborn
Replies: 63
Views: 2856

Re: College cost prediction and savings for 5, 3, and newborn

I have rough estimates as to what I need but are there good objective data sets to help predict most accurately? Historically, over the long-term the cost of college (tuition + room/board) has increased by about 1.2% more than the general rate inflation. This relationship isn't strictly constant, b...
by vineviz
Tue Jul 16, 2019 8:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New family car and safety considerations
Replies: 46
Views: 2422

Re: New family car and safety considerations

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 6:41 am
Crash into a bridge abutment and I don't care if you're driving a dump truck.....you're toast.
At high enough speeds maybe, but you've got a much better chance of surviving a crash like this in a modern Volvo than in a modern Jeep or a dump truck.
by vineviz
Tue Jul 16, 2019 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 462
Views: 18655

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

fyi, there is clearly no risk story for MOM, low vol, profitability and quality. I don't agree with Larry that there is "clearly" no risk story for these factors. My view is that the risks associated with some of the other factors are somewhat more obvious and maybe better documented, but IMHO ther...
by vineviz
Tue Jul 16, 2019 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Expands Their Index Fund Lineup
Replies: 46
Views: 4825

Re: Fidelity Expands Their Index Fund Lineup

Hurray! Small Cap Value Index (FISVX) looks promising from the name. It could be a good alternative to IJS for those who tilt but don't want to use ETFs in their accounts. Why are some people afraid to use ETFs? I think there are some good reasons that people might prefer to use a mutual fund over ...
by vineviz
Tue Jul 16, 2019 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-Cap Value Funds: Then And Now
Replies: 74
Views: 7968

Re: RTM

Factors are ways of categorizing groups of stocks. But why you bother characterizing them in certain ways (price to book, size, price to earnings, recent performance, etc) are arbitrary. When discussing arbitrariness, I think it's important to distinguish between categorization of stocks (i.e. smal...
by vineviz
Mon Jul 15, 2019 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: GSLC ETF available commission free through Fidelity
Replies: 9
Views: 662

Re: GSLC ETF available commission free through Fidelity

Please let me know if this is a good investment strategy. I don't see any upside to adding GSLC to the 401k. It's factor exposures are incredibly weak and, to the extent that they are statistically significant, the exposure is either negative (as in size and value) or duplicates the exposure of oth...
by vineviz
Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 462
Views: 18655

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

I find what people are trying to do here a very weird and irrational form of agnosticism. You are basically saying that you don't know how to pick stocks well enough so you should buy a broad market index. That's smart and rational. But then you also want to outperform the index, but you console yo...
by vineviz
Mon Jul 15, 2019 1:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P MidCap 400: Outperformance and Potential Applications
Replies: 18
Views: 1828

Re: S&P MidCap 400: Outperformance and Potential Applications

Again, it's a lot easier if you cherry pick the dates starting almost exactly at the onset of the tech/LCG collapse. I was only observing that the results of this particular study are highly sensitive to the inception date of the S&P 600 fund. Mid-cap stocks and small-cap stocks have historically p...
by vineviz
Sun Jul 14, 2019 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 462
Views: 18655

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

HomerJ wrote:
Sun Jul 14, 2019 8:00 pm
Why is this idea that 10% or 20% or 30% skill or knowledge just as worthless as 0% difficult to understand?
Probably because it only makes sense to the people with 0% knowledge.
by vineviz
Sun Jul 14, 2019 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P MidCap 400: Outperformance and Potential Applications
Replies: 18
Views: 1828

Re: S&P MidCap 400: Outperformance and Potential Applications

I don't want to rain on the mid-cap parade, but I do think it's important to point out that virtually all of the performance advantage of the S&P 400 vs the S&P 600 occurred in a four-year period (1995 to early 1999). That's not to say it couldn't happen again, but the data don't point to a persiste...
by vineviz
Sun Jul 14, 2019 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-Cap Value Funds: Then And Now
Replies: 74
Views: 7968

Re: RTM

We can certainly agree that the correlation is 0.94. Whether that is a lot or a little is, as you correctly point out, a subjective evaluation. True. For context, though, over the same period the correlations between Vanguard Extended Market Index fund (a mid-cap index fund) and Vanguard Small Cap ...
by vineviz
Sun Jul 14, 2019 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 462
Views: 18655

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

This is not correct. A bond is a promise to pay out a fixed amount of cash at pre-determined times for a pre-determined duration. The return that you will get if you hold it to maturity is known and fixed. The coupons don't increase. Equities are fractional interests in businesses that can get more...
by vineviz
Sun Jul 14, 2019 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 462
Views: 18655

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

...[Economics] also has been called "the dismal science." The problem I have with economics is that some folks want to reduce it all to formulas, just like with markets, economies are behaviorally driven. The math is fine but you need to put the markets and the economy on the couch. Economics is on...
by vineviz
Sun Jul 14, 2019 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 462
Views: 18655

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

Interest rates have dropped over the past 30 years from a high of 15%. This cannot repeat starting from today's rates. It most certainly can repeat. I don’t know what makes people think it can’t continue to happen. Are you saying that you see a reasonable possibility of the 10 year treasury yieldin...
by vineviz
Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 462
Views: 18655

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

HomerJ wrote:
Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:06 pm

Interest rates have dropped over the past 30 years from a high of 15%.

This cannot repeat starting from today's rates.
It most certainly can repeat.

I don’t know what makes people think it can’t continue to happen.
by vineviz
Sat Jul 13, 2019 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!
Replies: 293
Views: 51334

Re: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!

I am pondering eliminating Total Bond and further consolidate to Intermed Term Bond but it's just pondering. What are your thoughts on that? Because Total Bond contains a significant amount of MBS, which have negative convexity, the average convexity of total bond is slightly negative whereas Vangu...
by vineviz
Sat Jul 13, 2019 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-Cap Value Funds: Then And Now
Replies: 74
Views: 7968

Re: RTM

1) There is little to no daylight between DFSCX and DFSVX since they have both existed. That's a subjective evaluation, and not one I'd agree with. Yes, the cumulative average return of the two funds is similar but the correlation of monthly returns is only 0.94. Graphically, this shows up when ins...
by vineviz
Sat Jul 13, 2019 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-Cap Value Funds: Then And Now
Replies: 74
Views: 7968

Re: RTM

The point of JoMoney's post was to point out the failure of the factor model in predicting returns of live funds. The value premium did not show up for the 26 years of live performance in the small cap space and the small cap premium has not shown up over the 36 years it has been investable in a re...
by vineviz
Sat Jul 13, 2019 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-Cap Value Funds: Then And Now
Replies: 74
Views: 7968

Re: Small-Cap Value Funds: Then And Now

I always loved Jack Bogle's words of wisdom (and always will): Don't search for the needle in the haystack, own the haystack! Don't forget the rest of the quote: Don't search for the needle in the haystack, own the haystack! Except for the needles listed on the London Stock Exchange: don't own thos...
by vineviz
Sat Jul 13, 2019 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Fund Creator Jack Bogle Didn't Like ETFs Being Used For Speculation
Replies: 84
Views: 3383

Re: Index Fund Creator Jack Bogle Didn't Like ETFs Being Used For Speculation

They suggest that ETFs amplify the ability to make behavioral mistakes -- or to be as blunt as the author, "ETFs may actually make weak players weaker." I want to point out the author's hypothesis (i.e. "ETFs may actually make weak players weaker") could be true, but none of data they presented wou...
by vineviz
Sat Jul 13, 2019 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-Cap Value Funds: Then And Now
Replies: 74
Views: 7968

Re: Small-Cap Value Funds: Then And Now

Small value has a lot of real estate, financial and not a lot of Healthcare, Technology. Factor investing is closeted Sector investing. I'm just trolling... It's probably more reasonable to say that sector investing is closeted factor investing: a REIT fund is effectively just a multi-factor fund w...
by vineviz
Sat Jul 13, 2019 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International REIT
Replies: 62
Views: 9837

Re: International REIT

I have never read any research or documentation to state any of these other sector funds are a separate asset class. I want to clarify that I didn't mean to imply that the sector funds are a separate asset class (however you prefer to define that term) from stocks. Rather, I think that ALL equity s...
by vineviz
Sat Jul 13, 2019 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Fund Creator Jack Bogle Didn't Like ETFs Being Used For Speculation
Replies: 84
Views: 3383

Re: Index Fund Creator Jack Bogle Didn't Like ETFs Being Used For Speculation

Institutions do trade ETFs, I remember Bob Brinker's comments on MoneyTalk that the S&P 500 SPDRs traded like water. You're right, institutions do trade ETFs in fantastically high volumes. This is largely because institutions NEED to trade frequently to conduct their business. Before the advent of ...
by vineviz
Sat Jul 13, 2019 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Fund Creator Jack Bogle Didn't Like ETFs Being Used For Speculation
Replies: 84
Views: 3383

Re: Index Fund Creator Jack Bogle Didn't Like ETFs Being Used For Speculation

It is a bigger problem with ETFs and a bigger issue with active funds. The reason is performance chasing, people tend to buy high and sell low and then think the game is rigged against them. Money floods into funds as the market reaches new highs, when the market falls, people tend to sell. It's po...
by vineviz
Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Fund Creator Jack Bogle Didn't Like ETFs Being Used For Speculation
Replies: 84
Views: 3383

Re: Index Fund Creator Jack Bogle Didn't Like ETFs Being Used For Speculation

Bogle pointed out the high trading volumes and low returns that ETFs have earned. I'm not sure that his claims on either topic really match real-world evidence. The average ETF investor holds their position for 5.7 years: hardly what anyone could refer to as frequent trading. And in the quote above...
by vineviz
Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Fund Creator Jack Bogle Didn't Like ETFs Being Used For Speculation
Replies: 84
Views: 3383

Re: Index Fund Creator Jack Bogle Didn't Like ETFs Being Used For Speculation

Not so much about TIFs - something that Bogle tried in vain to put into the public discussion. The first ETF was launched in 1993. Vanguard launched its first ETF in 2001. US-sponsored ETFs now have assets in excess of $4 trillion dollars. I think it is safe to say that there has been substantial "...
by vineviz
Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Five Nobel Laureates Recommend The Market Portfolio
Replies: 58
Views: 6241

Re: Five Nobel Laureates Recommend The Market Portfolio

..Even under the relatively untenable assumptions required to say something like "the market portfolio is the most efficient portfolio"... For EMH and portfolio theory believers, I don't know how they escape the idea that any/every portfolio on the "efficient frontier" is "efficient"... it just may...
by vineviz
Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New family car and safety considerations
Replies: 46
Views: 2422

Re: New family car and safety considerations

Further, the assumption that careful driving can obviate the need for any safety feature requires an implausible belief that a normally attentive driver will always be 100% careful, and is adequately skilled in all conditions and circumstances, will never be distracted while driving by external fac...
by vineviz
Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Zero Coupon Bonds and TIPS In Taxable Account
Replies: 7
Views: 708

Re: Zero Coupon Bonds and TIPS In Taxable Account

I may be stating the obvious in the following, but please point out if I"m missing something. Assume one is investing in individual zero coupon bonds. I used to think that was tax inefficient. Every year until the bond matures, you have to pay tax on income that you don't receive. Compare it to a c...
by vineviz
Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financing my daughter's college with my 401K
Replies: 60
Views: 3539

Re: Financing my daughter's college with my 401K

Tamarind wrote:
Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:13 am
I'd suggest you cash flow what you can, and have her borrow the rest.
I agree, this is the only sensible way forward I see.
by vineviz
Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reconsider conventional 3- fund portfolio?
Replies: 7
Views: 980

Re: Reconsider conventional 3- fund portfolio?

(S)hould we be considering changing our investment strategies? No Is index investing in the total stock market, bond market, and international sustainable going forward? Yes I guess I'm just wondering if anyone on this forum has given that any thought. A lot. Should we be further diversifying into ...
by vineviz
Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International REIT
Replies: 62
Views: 9837

Re: International REIT

How about we leave it at that and let others decide? No hard feelings, it's just that I don't feel like an online argument this week. I wasn't attempting to start an argument. I merely meant to share my opinion that I see nothing wrong with overweighting REITS in a portfolio even though most theore...
by vineviz
Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Five Nobel Laureates Recommend The Market Portfolio
Replies: 58
Views: 6241

Re: Five Nobel Laureates Recommend The Market Portfolio

Do the five laureates (and the OP) share a common definition of “the market portfolio”? Doubt it. The Boglehead 3 Fund Portolio sure doesn't accurately represent a "market portfolio." It's wildly tilted. The actual market portfolio of publicly traded stocks and bonds would be something like roughly...
by vineviz
Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard account “Your mutual funds are eligible for tax-free conversion to ETFs”
Replies: 21
Views: 2501

Re: Vanguard account “Your mutual funds are eligible for tax-free conversion to ETFs”

What’s the benefit other than “lower costs” associated with “Your mutual funds are eligible for tax-free conversion to ETFs” vs the downside. It says intra- day trading as a benefit, why would this be a benefit if a “trade” is not executed in real time immediately at a price the “trader” can see im...
by vineviz
Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard account “Your mutual funds are eligible for tax-free conversion to ETFs”
Replies: 21
Views: 2501

Re: Vanguard account “Your mutual funds are eligible for tax-free conversion to ETFs”

Isn't it true that with ETF, you incur capital gain (or loss) only if you sell your ETF shares while you may get hit with capital gains in mutual funds even if you don't do any activity? This is mostly (like, 99%) true. One exception is ETFs will sometimes distribute gains to shareholders, but stru...
by vineviz
Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Five Nobel Laureates Recommend The Market Portfolio
Replies: 58
Views: 6241

Re: Five Nobel Laureates Recommend The Market Portfolio

There are more than enough genuine (i.e. actually true) reasons to justify a suggestion that virtually all investors would be well served by a 3-fund or 4-fund portfolio. That is a suggestion that no one here, AFAIK, would dispute. I definitely don't. I don't think that is true, judging from the nu...
by vineviz
Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International REIT
Replies: 62
Views: 9837

Re: International REIT

Have they not diversified as much as I would want in the past? Are there other sectors that overweighing in the past would've been better in the past? Sure. But such is the nature of decision-making under uncertainty. Just because something did not work as well in the past does not mean it is not t...