Search found 5374 matches

by vineviz
Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Value Market using Vanguard
Replies: 11
Views: 1389

Re: Total Value Market using Vanguard

If I am wanting to invest in the “total value market” would I just need to buy VTV (Vanguard Large Cap Value) and VBR (Vanguard Small Cap Value)? I know Vanguard uses the CRSP indexes and from what I can tell I don’t need their Mid cap Value index fund as all equities are in the large and small cap...
by vineviz
Sat Oct 19, 2019 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate in today’s low yield environment
Replies: 44
Views: 4064

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate in today’s low yield environment

So even if bonds return zero over that period (never mind that a .59% real return can be garnered with 30 year TIPS), that means that stocks would have to return under 2% real for the next 15 years. That's possible, but it seems far from likely. US stocks have had lower real returns in the past, wi...
by vineviz
Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is our fixed income allocation too low?
Replies: 66
Views: 3919

Re: Is our fixed income allocation too low?

Amazing to me that so many on this forum assess Berkshire's present value based on Buffett and Munger being alive. Their demise has been baked into the cake for a long time. Of course the stock will drop and one dies and then the other. But that will in no way affect the present value of Berkshire....
by vineviz
Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SLYV outperformance vs. IJS? Index change?
Replies: 5
Views: 508

Re: SLYV outperformance vs. IJS? Index change?

Getting ready to contribute to some small-cap value in a new IRA; previously I always used VIOV but now with free trades everywhere I thought about trying SLYV, which tracks the same S&P600 index at 5bp lower ER but has had some gain-distribution issues (no problem in Roth). I wanted to compare on ...
by vineviz
Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy being killed?
Replies: 142
Views: 15673

Re: Is the 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy being killed?

Take a look at what a solid 5-15 slug of gold does to safe withdrawal rates. I did. It's not pretty. Would you please post the details of your analysis? Because with few exceptions, the data I've seen strongly indicate that a 10-20% allocation to gold, especially 'at the expense' of bonds, over the...
by vineviz
Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is our fixed income allocation too low?
Replies: 66
Views: 3919

Re: Is our fixed income allocation too low?

Did a similar assessment apply to GE when Jack Welch was the ceo or chaiman? How similar is GE to BH? yea, why is GE entering this discussion? A blue-chip, ultrasafe conglomerate with admired leadership? What possible analogy could someone draw? i admittedly know very little about GE historically, ...
by vineviz
Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 fund vs target date
Replies: 21
Views: 2395

Re: 3 fund vs target date

Did you read what you posted? In the presence of savings (pg 7, middle table), the TDF achieved slightly higher wealth and at slightly less dispersion of wealth. Insignifcant results but it's most definitely not saying constant allocation is superior (which is what you claim). I don't know what dat...
by vineviz
Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The One-Fund Portfolio as a default suggestion
Replies: 137
Views: 19431

Re: The One-Fund Portfolio as a default suggestion

I really enjoy the simplicity of having a globally-diversified balanced portfolio using a single exchange-traded fund. What about you? I do also. I have VT in my taxable account and SPGM in our tax advantaged account. I'll add BNDW later. Lostdog, this thread is about all-in-one globally-diversifie...
by vineviz
Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is our fixed income allocation too low?
Replies: 66
Views: 3919

Re: Is our fixed income allocation too low?

bgf wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:49 am
IslandTime wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:35 am
MathIsMyWayr wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:31 am
Did a similar assessment apply to GE when Jack Welch was the ceo or chaiman?
How similar is GE to BH?
yea, why is GE entering this discussion?
A blue-chip, ultrasafe conglomerate with admired leadership?

What possible analogy could someone draw?
by vineviz
Sat Oct 19, 2019 7:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is our fixed income allocation too low?
Replies: 66
Views: 3919

Re: Is our fixed income allocation too low?

The bigger question is , why do you have such a high concentration in one stock ( Your bookvalue thinking doesnt really hold weight TBH)? I've studied Buffett and he is a legend, but I wouldnt feel comfortable with a significant chunk of my networth in one stock. We’ll just have to agree to disagre...
by vineviz
Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 fund vs target date
Replies: 21
Views: 2395

Re: 3 fund vs target date

You can beat a constant allocation with an adaptive approach (one that changes your asset allocation in response to your wealth), but not with a static glidepath. For the vast majority of investors, a pre-set glide path will closely match a wealth-adaptive glide path. And virtually no individual in...
by vineviz
Fri Oct 18, 2019 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unique withdrawal method
Replies: 65
Views: 6931

Re: Unique withdrawal method

cheese_breath wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:32 pm
My unique method is withdraw it when I need it, otherwise let it grow.
You rebel!
by vineviz
Fri Oct 18, 2019 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Composition and safety of TIAA traditional annuity
Replies: 108
Views: 9543

Re: Composition and safety of TIAA traditional annuity

Bonds for Retirement Saving: TIAA Traditional’s Lessons on Quality, Duration, Risk, and Gradual Withdrawals by Gabriel A. Lozada Department of Economics, University of Utah Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA http://content.csbs.utah.edu/~lozada/Research/MTIAA_4_UU.pdf Clearly, most of the posters here k...
by vineviz
Fri Oct 18, 2019 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is a 6 month T-Bill a bond for AA purposes?
Replies: 19
Views: 1482

Re: Is a 6 month T-Bill a bond for AA purposes?

Personally I’d consider a t-bill equivalent to cash. If you don’t track cash as an asset class then yes, bonds work. I’d say the same thing. The overriding asset allocation principle in my mind is that the fixed income duration should match the investment horizon. Spending the money in six months? ...
by vineviz
Fri Oct 18, 2019 10:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is a 6 month T-Bill a bond for AA purposes?
Replies: 19
Views: 1482

Re: Is a 6 month T-Bill a bond for AA purposes?

Personally I’d consider a t-bill equivalent to cash. If you don’t track cash as an asset class then yes, bonds work. I’d say the same thing. The overriding asset allocation principle in my mind is that the fixed income duration should match the investment horizon. Spending the money in six months? ...
by vineviz
Fri Oct 18, 2019 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 fund vs target date
Replies: 21
Views: 2395

Re: 3 fund vs target date

Brianmcg321 wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 10:13 am
If the equity/bond allocation is the same over the years they will be nearly identical.

The target date funds will lose slightly, however, due to having higher expenses.
On the other hand, the target date investor will come out ahead due to a positive behavioral gap.
by vineviz
Fri Oct 18, 2019 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are TIPS really a good inflation hedge? Pros and Cons
Replies: 151
Views: 11592

Re: Are TIPS really a good inflation hedge? Pros and Cons

NOTE - I'm not proposing frequent short-term trading of TIPS at all, I'm just wondering if this is a way for a value-oriented investor to get a better deal when buying and finally when selling. Comments? If you’re a better forecaster of future inflation than the rest of the market’s participants , ...
by vineviz
Fri Oct 18, 2019 6:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Target or John Bogle advice?
Replies: 14
Views: 1725

Re: Fidelity Target or John Bogle advice?

So my understanding was that John Bogle recommended investing your age in bonds and reminder in index. Fidelity Target Funds however don't seem to be following this ratio. I am 40 years old and I want to retire in 2035. Mr. Bogle would recommend I have 40% in bonds and 60% in index. But check out F...
by vineviz
Fri Oct 18, 2019 6:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard Patented a Way to Avoid Taxes on Mutual Funds"
Replies: 140
Views: 9813

Re: "Vanguard Patented a Way to Avoid Taxes on Mutual Funds"

Hmm. Not sure how I feel about this. Minimizing taxes by minimizing churn is one thing. Minimizing taxes by engaging in heartbeats trades to exploit a loophole is another. This is not fundamentally any different than the tax gain harvesting and tax loss harvesting any taxpayer can do. Sorry to disa...
by vineviz
Thu Oct 17, 2019 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What's my inflation exposure?
Replies: 9
Views: 665

Re: What's my inflation exposure?

Good morning! Recently, I've been pondering life-cycle finance and the value of establishing a floor of inflation-protected fixed income in retirement. I've seen it recommended that those who wish to do so should start transitioning to TIPS about twenty years away from retirement, which is approxim...
by vineviz
Thu Oct 17, 2019 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
Replies: 132
Views: 11977

Re: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?

A couple of years ago the head of mutual fund was on TV (I don't remember the name of the fund). He said they were pulling their holdings completely out of China because they simply could not figure out how China was were coming up with the numbers that they did regarding their economy, production,...
by vineviz
Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
Replies: 160
Views: 12339

Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing

and the fewer years until termination of decumulation the less effect it has, which is why many recommend a steadily increasing equity allocation through retirement. That's what I said, self mitigating. That's nonsense: there is no recuperating from a poor initial sequence of returns. This is WHY i...
by vineviz
Wed Oct 16, 2019 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving Withdrawal Rates in a Low-Yield World
Replies: 21
Views: 1119

Re: Improving Withdrawal Rates in a Low-Yield World

Rather than tilting toward low volatility stocks, my view is that a target volatility approach is easier, less costly to implement, and likely to be more effective. I fail to see how that approach is easier to implement. The additional cost of an ETF like USMV is 0.12%. :greedy The additional cost ...
by vineviz
Wed Oct 16, 2019 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving Withdrawal Rates in a Low-Yield World
Replies: 21
Views: 1119

Re: Improving Withdrawal Rates in a Low-Yield World

It seems to me that Low Vol stocks have the potential to improve withdrawal rates due to reducing sequence of returns risk, regardless of bond yields. If one is going to adopt a tilting strategy, Low Vol seems to me the most compelling. I would point out that bonds also help reduce sequence risk as...
by vineviz
Wed Oct 16, 2019 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving Withdrawal Rates in a Low-Yield World
Replies: 21
Views: 1119

Re: Improving Withdrawal Rates in a Low-Yield World

bikechuck wrote:
Wed Oct 16, 2019 11:27 am
Interesting article, I wonder if preferred stocks would be a better choice still than low volitility common stocks.
They would not be.
by vineviz
Wed Oct 16, 2019 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
Replies: 160
Views: 12339

Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing

As I said previously, I have yet to see a compelling argument for this and I'm not seeing one here. Is this because you don't WANT to see it? I ask because I've seen the argument pretty clearly articulated. We simply are going to differ here. ... perhaps because you wish to give preferential vision...
by vineviz
Wed Oct 16, 2019 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing into CDs vs Bonds
Replies: 13
Views: 1851

Re: Investing into CDs vs Bonds

I think this is round 2 for us on this subject. I think when we last left off you were arguing that while both CDs and bonds issued by banks were general obligations issued from the liabilities side of the balance sheet, but that accounting standards set by the Federal Reserve for risk-adjusted res...
by vineviz
Wed Oct 16, 2019 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
Replies: 160
Views: 12339

Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing

As I said previously, I have yet to see a compelling argument for this and I'm not seeing one here. Is this because you don't WANT to see it? I ask because I've seen the argument pretty clearly articulated. 1) The long-run expected returns of US stocks and ex-US stocks are, for a US investor, effec...
by vineviz
Wed Oct 16, 2019 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs
Replies: 157
Views: 16625

Re: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs

Any idea how tax efficient these funds are going to be? It would be nice if they excluded REITs or other non-tax efficient holdings. Interesting to see that as of 10:30am AVUV (US SCV) has had more trades than VFMF today (which isn't actually saying much though). There's no way to know for sure, bu...
by vineviz
Wed Oct 16, 2019 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
Replies: 160
Views: 12339

Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing

I owned as much international in taxable as I did domestic. The last decade has made that costly, the next, no one knows but it seems unlikely the world will look much different when I wake up tomorrow. Don't make the mistake of thinking you need to see a fundamental change in the world in order fo...
by vineviz
Wed Oct 16, 2019 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
Replies: 160
Views: 12339

Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing

I would agree that lots of daylight exists but lets get back to the universe, to be factual rather than argumentative and let's forget the 100 million. While there are many grading systems in the world I'm sure most of us are familiar with the bell curve. Certainly we can agree that the top 2% of t...
by vineviz
Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
Replies: 160
Views: 12339

Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing

Since there are 195 Countries in the World today that looks pretty good to me. How many with a population over 100 million score better? Each comparison used a slightly different universe of countries, but most were comparing the US to other so-called "developed countries" which — depending on the ...
by vineviz
Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bank of America declares 'the end of the 60-40' standard portfolio
Replies: 88
Views: 15223

Re: Bank of America declares 'the end of the 60-40' standard portfolio

AerialWombat wrote:
Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:18 pm
vineviz wrote:
Tue Oct 15, 2019 3:33 pm
A real, inflation-adjusted return of 0% over the next decade for such a portfolio is entirely possible and maybe even likely.
Say whaaaat? I thought nobody knows nothin’. Do you know something? :)
I'm not making a prediction, but I can calculate an expected return.
by vineviz
Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
Replies: 160
Views: 12339

Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing

Whatever factors you think make it “special” now have made it equally “special” for the past 50 or 60 years, a period of time over which US equity returns have been effectively identical to ex-US returns and the diversification benefits of a globally diversified portfolio have been unambiguous. US ...
by vineviz
Tue Oct 15, 2019 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
Replies: 160
Views: 12339

Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing

Reasons the US economic system is superior: As if the same list of factors isn’t equally true for literally dozens of other countries. Anyway, the whole argument for American exceptionalism is a red herring anyway. Whatever factors you think make it “special” now have made it equally “special” for ...
by vineviz
Tue Oct 15, 2019 6:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Allan Roth and Bill Bernstein fixed income portfolio?
Replies: 51
Views: 6069

Re: Allan Roth and Bill Bernstein fixed income portfolio?

Quote from Allan Roth in a NYT article (2014) he links to on his site: "Allan S. Roth, founder of the investment advisory firm Wealth Logic, in Colorado Springs, whose corporate motto is “Dare to be dull,” avoids bonds altogether for his personal portfolio and those of many of his clients. He prefe...
by vineviz
Tue Oct 15, 2019 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
Replies: 160
Views: 12339

Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing

[Comment removed -- mod oldcomputerguy] Take a look at the following standings for the United States and tell me whether you think it is overwhelming evidence of anything other than a lack of exceptional economic standing. • 24th best education system • 25th fastest GDP growth • 22nd least corrupt ...
by vineviz
Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
Replies: 160
Views: 12339

Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing

Actually, by a lot of measures, it is unique to America. John Bogle and others have pointed them out many times, and his comments and others such as Warren Buffet are widely available in this regard. I agree with them on every count. From many angles, the American econonic system is highly exceptio...
by vineviz
Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing into CDs vs Bonds
Replies: 13
Views: 1851

Re: Investing into CDs vs Bonds

alex_686 wrote:
Tue Oct 15, 2019 11:23 am
CDs are just a special type of bond.
CDs are a type of bank deposit account, whereas bonds are marketable securities.

There are some superficial similarities, but also important differences.
by vineviz
Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Confused newbie
Replies: 14
Views: 1270

Re: Confused newbie

Using either Vanguard Total Market or S&P 500 returns as a benchmark to compare, it appears that I am grossly underperforming. If you financial advisor has you in anything approaching a reasonably diversified portfolio then Elysium is right: neither of those are appropriate benchmark for your portf...
by vineviz
Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
Replies: 160
Views: 12339

Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing

Even if the US stops being exceptional at some point, it doesn't follow that ex-US will outperform. It doesn't, but the point was that "American exceptionalism" is not really something unique to America. Actually, by a lot of measures, it is unique to America. John Bogle and others have pointed the...
by vineviz
Tue Oct 15, 2019 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bank of America declares 'the end of the 60-40' standard portfolio
Replies: 88
Views: 15223

Re: Bank of America declares 'the end of the 60-40' standard portfolio

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20191015474/bank-of-america-declares-the-end-of-the-60-40-standard-portfolio "The challenge for investors today is that both of those benefits from bonds, diversification and risk-reduction, seem to be weakening, and this is happening at a time when posi...
by vineviz
Tue Oct 15, 2019 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
Replies: 160
Views: 12339

Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing

Every empire has had it's day in the sun. The Greeks, the Romans, the Mongols, the Moghuls, the British, and now the US. Do we really believe this will continue forever? "Forever" is irrelevant. Even the sun won't last forever. The question is what will happen during our investment time horizon, wh...
by vineviz
Tue Oct 15, 2019 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
Replies: 132
Views: 11977

Re: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?

If you then remove the ability of the market to efficiently price in information, you cannot then go around and say that the market has already priced it in. The market does not price in information it does not have. It does not know which companies have misstated finances and by how much. However,...
by vineviz
Tue Oct 15, 2019 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Diversify my portfolio further with factors and sectors
Replies: 71
Views: 3760

Re: Diversify my portfolio further with factors and sectors

I understand the forum is divided between those who think the market portfolio is the most diversified and those that think it can be further diversified. I'm looking for opinions from the latter crowd; no need to voice the former point please. One of those groups is going to be honoring the defini...
by vineviz
Tue Oct 15, 2019 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Withdrawal Plan. McClung or Allocation Bands?
Replies: 47
Views: 3405

Re: Withdrawal Plan. McClung or Allocation Bands?

Jane had a more aggressive AA in 2000 and she still has a more aggressive AA in 2001. Clearly, their desires to take risk are different. Maybe Jane wants to leave a legacy or take expensive vacations. Maybe Bob's parents lived through the depression and taught him extreme frugality. Who knows? Reme...
by vineviz
Tue Oct 15, 2019 9:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Withdrawal Plan. McClung or Allocation Bands?
Replies: 47
Views: 3405

Re: Withdrawal Plan. McClung or Allocation Bands?

Jane had a more aggressive AA in 2000 and she still has a more aggressive AA in 2001. Clearly, their desires to take risk are different. Maybe Jane wants to leave a legacy or take expensive vacations. Maybe Bob's parents lived through the depression and taught him extreme frugality. Who knows? Reme...
by vineviz
Tue Oct 15, 2019 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?
Replies: 132
Views: 11977

Re: Isn't lack of transparency in China a huge risk for international stock index?

Yes. Cooked books is always a risk. With U.S. securities of all types, too. The real question is whether you’re being sufficiently remunerated for the risk you’re taking. But US securities are more strictly controlled by government while Chinese gov can actually encourage to cook books and present ...
by vineviz
Mon Oct 14, 2019 5:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Withdrawal Plan. McClung or Allocation Bands?
Replies: 47
Views: 3405

Re: Withdrawal Plan. McClung or Allocation Bands?

dcabler wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 5:13 pm
I always thought market timing was based on a prediction of what markets are going to do, not what they've already done.
Relying on explicit market forecasts is one form (an especially strong form of market timing), but it's not the only form.
by vineviz
Mon Oct 14, 2019 4:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Withdrawal Plan. McClung or Allocation Bands?
Replies: 47
Views: 3405

Re: Withdrawal Plan. McClung or Allocation Bands?

My personal opinion is that if you believe in market timing, you should use your market timing indicators to create a path independent asset allocation. McClung's prime harvesting is no such strategy and as far as I'm aware of, no such retirement strategy has been proposed by anyone. it's essential...