Search found 1764 matches

by averagedude
Fri Dec 29, 2023 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Your Biggest "Good Problem to Have"? [Financial]
Replies: 97
Views: 13984

Re: What is Your Biggest "Good Problem to Have"? [Financial]

One of the best problems to have for diligent savers is having to draw larger than you need RMD's.
This also means you have lived to at least in your seventies. So many people die young.
by averagedude
Fri Dec 29, 2023 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cathie Wood - What's the story?
Replies: 83
Views: 14011

Re: Cathie Wood - What's the story?

Another thing that people don't talk about is the fact that most investors lost money in her funds because most of the inflows came piling in near the top.
by averagedude
Tue Dec 12, 2023 5:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which fund would you choose?
Replies: 20
Views: 1933

Re: Which fund would you choose?

I would choose VOO over VOOG.
I would choose VTI over VOO.
by averagedude
Mon Dec 04, 2023 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% Update using Bootstrapped Monte-Carlo Method
Replies: 9
Views: 2005

Re: 4% Update using Bootstrapped Monte-Carlo Method

The greatest enemy of a good retirement withdrawal strategy is the dream of a perfect withdrawal strategy . Stick with the good strategy.
That is what Jack Bogle would say.
by averagedude
Sun Aug 20, 2023 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taking Social Security at 62
Replies: 635
Views: 86076

Re: Taking Social Security at 62

There is a reason why most fiduciary financial planners recommend that healthy people delay their social security until 70 years old in most cases.
What I find dumb is people taking their social security at 62 years old and then buying an annuity with their nest egg.
Even more disturbing to me is financial advisors recommending to their clients to take social security early and buying an annuity product with their nest egg that pays them a fat commission. Believe it or not, this happens all of the time. Some of these clients walk into their offices 200 pounds overweight short of breath as they sit down next to them, and they still try to sell them an annuity product.
by averagedude
Sun Jun 11, 2023 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving your risk tolerance
Replies: 42
Views: 3523

Re: Improving your risk tolerance

There are only two ways to improve your risk tolerance:
1. Education. Specifically Math,Psychology, Biology, and History.
2. Looking through the lens of rose collared glasses.
by averagedude
Sun Jun 11, 2023 8:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Trying to get $300K into the market (DCA or Lumpsum)
Replies: 21
Views: 2955

Re: Trying to get $300K into the market (DCA or Lumpsum)

A seasoned investor's advice is to always lump sum into the market. The advice is right 70% of the time.

Sometimes in life you have to play the odds, because nobody can predict the future.
by averagedude
Sun May 21, 2023 9:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What do you think about this ChatGpt ETF Portfolio suggestion?
Replies: 28
Views: 3353

Re: What do you think about this ChatGpt ETF Portfolio suggestion?

It looks like ChatGpt is in the early stages of intelligence. Yea, right now it is pretty good at backtesting and having knowledge of what markets did in the past, but I will go out on a limb and predict that AI will never be able to predict the best investments of the future. This would require luck, not intelligence.
by averagedude
Thu May 18, 2023 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much International allocation is good insurance?
Replies: 251
Views: 18357

Re: How much International allocation is good insurance?

whodidntante wrote: Mon Apr 24, 2023 6:43 pm I wonder if it's somehow possible to harness the energy put into this ceaseless discussion topic.
I agree, but in the meantime we all have our opinion and we LOVE expressing it. You minds well join the debate and share your opinion, as these threads tend to have hundreds of comments.
by averagedude
Thu May 18, 2023 9:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: WSJ: ESPN direct streaming to cord-cutters
Replies: 30
Views: 3417

Re: WSJ: ESPN direct streaming to cord-cutters

In reality, most young people are getting away from satellite or a cable company. They are subscribing to streaming services, which IMO is what most people are going to be purchasing in the future. This doesn't mean that we will all be saving money, but the media companies know that content is king, and this is what is desired by the public. Ever wonder why all the shows that everyone is talking about is on a paid streaming service that isn't readily available on a satellite or cable package that you purchased years ago.
by averagedude
Thu May 18, 2023 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who should not invest in the market portfolio
Replies: 466
Views: 32332

Re: Who should not invest in the market portfolio

The 18-25 year olds on Reddit should never invest in the market portfolio. They are so smart that they can do much better by stock picking on their own.
by averagedude
Thu May 18, 2023 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: does anyone disagree with this article that argues real estate is less risky and more profitable?
Replies: 169
Views: 13032

Re: does anyone disagree with this article that argues real estate is less risky and more profitable?

watchnerd wrote: Thu May 18, 2023 9:10 pm
averagedude wrote: Thu May 18, 2023 9:01 pm If I knew for sure that my compound rate of return would have been 1% higher over a 50 year period, which does come to a boatload of money, I would still have stuck with equities.
Yeah, but your fabulous real estate empire is a lot more interesting at cocktail parties than a boring index fund.
You are correct. but the people will think I am a fraud when they see me leaving the party in a rusty 22 year old vehicle.
by averagedude
Thu May 18, 2023 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on "Factor Funds"
Replies: 264
Views: 13244

Re: Bogle on "Factor Funds"

I would say that Bogle is probably right on this one. I would say that 90% of your returns are going to be driven by your asset allocation, not what factors you tilt to.
by averagedude
Thu May 18, 2023 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: does anyone disagree with this article that argues real estate is less risky and more profitable?
Replies: 169
Views: 13032

Re: does anyone disagree with this article that argues real estate is less risky and more profitable?

If I knew for sure that my compound rate of return would have been 1% higher over a 50 year period, which does come to a boatload of money, I would still have stuck with equities.
by averagedude
Thu Mar 23, 2023 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not follow Buffett’s mantra?
Replies: 134
Views: 13577

Re: Why not follow Buffet’s mantra?

Forget about the Buffet mantra. Follow the "chicken mantra" which means that the closest thing to a free lunch is diversification, and don't put all of your eggs in one basket. You never want to make a concentration bet on one sector of the economy.
by averagedude
Thu Mar 23, 2023 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "experienced" investors: is this time different?
Replies: 377
Views: 54449

Re: "experienced" investors: is this time different?

I started investing in the early 1990's, so I can't comment on the 1970s, which wasn't an optimal time to be a stock market investor. I have the opinion that if you are in your twenties and you have a 65 year time horizon, then there is nothing better than dollar cost averaging in broad based index funds. Luckily for people in their twenties, the fees of investing are cheap compared to the old days.
by averagedude
Thu Mar 23, 2023 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Critrize my AA
Replies: 14
Views: 1139

Re: Critrize my AA

Hard to criticize without more information. Personal finance is more personal than it is finance. What is your age, what is your risk tolerance, and what are your goals?
by averagedude
Thu Mar 23, 2023 9:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are some of the best grills under $750? | First time buyer
Replies: 84
Views: 7546

Re: What are some of the best grills under $750? | First time buyer

If I had a gun pointed to my head to cook the best steak possible, I would rely on my $150 Weber kettle grill before I would my $800 gas grill. There are always trade offs regardless of which route you decide to go with.
by averagedude
Thu Mar 23, 2023 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein on TIPS and T-bills
Replies: 171
Views: 26837

Re: Bernstein on TIPS and T-bills

This Dr. Bernstein is a genius. To add to his opinion, I believe that the dumbest thing that investors do is buying TIPS or annuities before maximizing their social security. Some people don't comprehend how valuable a pension is that is inflation protected for their entire lives, regardless of their longevity.
by averagedude
Mon Mar 13, 2023 12:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasuries Today - What duration are you buying?
Replies: 128
Views: 23147

Re: Treasuries Today - What duration are you buying?

70% total bond, 20% intermediate corporate bond, and 10% high yield. I would say in the upper five range. It feels better today than what it did a couple of years ago when yields were around 1.75% for a 6 year duration.
by averagedude
Mon Mar 13, 2023 12:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you regret spending money on your wedding?
Replies: 229
Views: 23263

Re: Do you regret spending money on your wedding?

Spent $75 for a "preacher" at an iconic site in our area. Still married today after 24 years and don't regret it a bit on my end. Please don't ask my wife.Her answer could be different.
by averagedude
Thu Jan 26, 2023 10:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What’s Your 2023 Budget?
Replies: 201
Views: 26559

Re: What’s Your 2023 Budget?

Good point! I fall between these two ranges, so I think I will just keep my mouth shut.
by averagedude
Thu Jan 26, 2023 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The “Bucket Strategy” is ineffective (ERN)
Replies: 472
Views: 48229

Re: The “Bucket Strategy” is ineffective (ERN)

The "bucket strategy" is nothing but mental accounting. Instead of strategies, we should be thinking about the "proper asset allocation".
by averagedude
Thu Jan 26, 2023 10:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What’s Your 2023 Budget?
Replies: 201
Views: 26559

Re: What’s Your 2023 Budget?

Would it be wrong to show this whole thread to my spouse how other boglehead households spend their money frugally, or could this result in a bear market that could result in a 50% drawdown for me?
by averagedude
Fri Jan 13, 2023 1:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What frugal thing did you do today?
Replies: 4535
Views: 625635

Re: What frugal thing did you do today?

I didn't drive anywhere today. I am saving my errands to do it all in one day to save on fuel costs. This is a trick that has been used for generations for people who live in rural areas.
by averagedude
Fri Jan 13, 2023 1:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why (when) one's marginal tax rate is important in practice?
Replies: 105
Views: 8687

Re: Why (when) one's marginal tax rate is important in practice?

For alot of people who are in the middle to upper income group, tax rates seem to hit them the hardest when they suddenly find themselves having a single filing status due to the death of their spouse.This is especially an issue with people who have large amounts in tax deferred accounts. This is one of the benefits of doing Roth conversions.
by averagedude
Fri Jan 13, 2023 1:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can you beat car dealers at their own game?
Replies: 66
Views: 8045

Re: Can you beat car dealers at their own game?

It can be very diffucult to beat a car dealer that is selling a vehicle that you want that is not in stock which is likely in today's market environment. They are going to sell it to you at MSRP, and probably not a dollar less. They have the negotiation power when you have a specific color, make, and model of a particular car that is in high demand.I get it, if a person is going to spend 50k on a vehicle, they are probably going to particular in what they want. We have Toyota dealerships in my area that don't have some model vehicles in stock and you may have to wait months to get it. There isn't a Toyota 4runner in stock within 100 miles from me and it can take months to get one.
by averagedude
Fri Jan 13, 2023 1:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you are TRULY financially independent, why would you still work?
Replies: 427
Views: 41249

Re: If you are TRULY financially independent, why would you still work?

Me personally, I am retired and loving every minute of it. Nothing wrong with work. It can provide purpose and it was great for my mental health in my 20s and 30s. I can assure you that the vast majority of people who worked in lug nut factories or other physically demanding jobs that I had, are happy not having to work anymore. The people who are working in their late 60s and 70s and who swear that working is the key to happiness, are not working these type of jobs.
by averagedude
Fri Jan 13, 2023 12:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 5577
Views: 623608

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I've been away from this forum lately, but I came back to rejoice my small cap value tilt! Lost money last year just like most people did, but perhaps not as much. Still behind though since I started this tilt thing but I have faith that there is a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.Now if only International stocks will finally pay off so I won't feel so stupid about my investing decisions.
by averagedude
Sun Jul 31, 2022 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks for the Long Haul? Maybe Not.
Replies: 146
Views: 21678

Re: Stocks for the Long Haul? Maybe Not.

Thanks for the link. I just downloaded it. I read that book and I love Jeremy Siegel.
by averagedude
Fri Jul 29, 2022 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Second quarter of negative GDP. What does this mean for your investing?
Replies: 93
Views: 8085

Re: Second quarter of negative GDP. What does this mean for your investing?

Zeno wrote: Thu Jul 28, 2022 10:35 pm
matti wrote: Thu Jul 28, 2022 8:39 pm I'm not particularly knowledgeable about investing, nor do I care to learn a lot. Frankly, I don't understand about half of the financial terms used on this forum. That's why I invest every single dollar in a Vangaurd target date fund.
+1

And in doing so, you are ahead of effectively everybody else on Planet Earth, myself included. Great job.
Agree, and if you read a book on behavior finance, you will see why.
by averagedude
Fri Jul 29, 2022 12:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Second quarter of negative GDP. What does this mean for your investing?
Replies: 93
Views: 8085

Re: Second quarter of negative GDP. What does this mean for your investing?

Keep in mind that the market is forward looking. It usually goes down as it knows a recession is happening way before it is announced, and it usually starts going up after it is announced.
by averagedude
Thu Jul 28, 2022 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the best bet against inflation? ibonds?
Replies: 39
Views: 3965

Re: What's the best bet against inflation? ibonds?

TIPS and I bonds only provide protection to the funds used to purchase them. Commodities might provide some protection to additional assets. They have in the current inflation, which they've done before when inflation suddenly spiked . But I agree that there is no magic bullet to hedge inflation. But how much realistically? Again, let's hypothetically say you hold 10% of your assets in commodities as your "hedge" against inflation. How much do you think would be "hedged"? I can't imagine its 50% of what's invested (which would be an "extra" 5% beyond the 10% position), maybe more likely 10-15% (so an extra 1% the portfolio with a 10% tilt - maybe)? Admittedly, I know nothing about commodities - so maybe there'...
by averagedude
Sun Jul 24, 2022 1:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US vs Int stock allocation
Replies: 462
Views: 39323

Re: US vs Int stock allocation

Yes, there is a consensus. What better consensus there is than a target date fund. A couple of years ago, I did a consensus of the top ten target date fund providers. We are talking about Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab, American Funds, Black Rock, T Rowe, TIAA, New York Mellon, JP Morgan, and State Street. If my memory serves me correctly, the median International exposure was 36%. Why not go with that?
by averagedude
Sun Jul 24, 2022 1:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities never belonged in your portfolio
Replies: 253
Views: 22012

Re: Commodities never belonged in your portfolio

Earlier this year, strategists and investors came out in droves to embrace commodities to weather surging inflation. In typical fashion, everyone wants to pile in AFTER an asset increases in price. investors who held on to those positions are seeing their winnings largely eviscerated by a brutal snapback. In reality, most individual investors had no business investing in commodities in the first place. Now that we’ve bought at the peak, let’s sell after a big drop and vow “never again”. Commodities can make for great trades, but they are often lousy investments. In spite of our above failure with commodities, we still think we are great traders. If your plan includes commodities, then stick with them for the very long term. If your plan do...
by averagedude
Sun Jul 24, 2022 1:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should you tip when picking up takeout food?
Replies: 290
Views: 50566

Re: Should you tip when picking up takeout food?

No! All this does is promote owners to pay a low wage. If people didn't tip, people wouldn't take these jobs and owners would be forced to pay higher wages. Should they put tip jars in all businesses where a customer is paying and a cashier is taking the money? I tip where I am taking an order from a table or bar. I don't do it when I have to stand in line.
by averagedude
Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: how would you invest money in fixed income now?
Replies: 28
Views: 6289

Re: how would you invest money in fixed income now?

My first dollars would go into Ibonds, up to the maximum amount. The rest of the dollars is a crap shoot.
by averagedude
Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on mid caps?
Replies: 16
Views: 2950

Re: Thoughts on mid caps?

I have tilted to mid cap and small cap for 30 years. My thought process is that small and mid sized companies are more riskier and should give you higher investment returns over a long time horizon. Tilting to mid caps is reasonable, but you should only do it if you have a long investment time horizon,can stick with it when (not if) it becomes out of favor, and you understand that getting a higher return by doing so isn't a given.
by averagedude
Sun Jun 19, 2022 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Besides commodities, is there anything NOT getting destroyed?
Replies: 110
Views: 10933

Re: Besides commodities, is there anything NOT getting destroyed?

What doesn't get destroyed today, can always get destroyed tomorrow.
by averagedude
Sun Jun 19, 2022 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your age and asset allocation ?
Replies: 1156
Views: 151963

Re: What is your asset allocation and age?

Retired April 1,2022 at 52 years old and my asset allocation is 70/30. It could very well be 68/32, but in bear markets i tend not to look at our portfolio very often. In bull markets I look at it several times a week.
by averagedude
Fri Jun 17, 2022 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5-year breakeven inflation rate 2.8%
Replies: 30
Views: 5719

Re: 5-year breakeven inflation rate 2.8%

Very interesting. Betting the over/under would be tough against the bond market handicappers. This is why markets are efficient. For sure they will be wrong, and 5 years from now we will laugh at their prediction because of hindsight. In reality, nobody can predict the future accurately on a consistent basis.
by averagedude
Fri Jun 17, 2022 7:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should we charge for concessions for our HOA event?
Replies: 31
Views: 2846

Re: Should we charge for concessions for our HOA event?

You could always make it free, but perhaps you shouldn't promote or advertise concessions as free before the event.
by averagedude
Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2109
Views: 394760

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

If interest rates go up like they did in the late 70s and the stock market keeps tanking, couldn't this fund actually go to zero or very close to it like alot of other leveraged investment products? Never understood why someone would put all of their chips into this fund, unless they were performance chasing or thinking they have figured out the holy grail of investing from their backtesting analysis. I don't understand why someone who wants to be aggressive, could just be satisfied with the returns that 100% in equities will provide you. If you need higher returns than what 100% equities can give you to accomplish your goals, I would say you need to earn more, save more, or rethink your goals. Given a great depression sized crash, it's th...
by averagedude
Mon Jun 13, 2022 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
Replies: 117
Views: 18278

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

3401. Because I will start nibbling when it gets down to 3400.
by averagedude
Mon Jun 13, 2022 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2109
Views: 394760

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

If interest rates go up like they did in the late 70s and the stock market keeps tanking, couldn't this fund actually go to zero or very close to it like alot of other leveraged investment products? Never understood why someone would put all of their chips into this fund, unless they were performance chasing or thinking they have figured out the holy grail of investing from their backtesting analysis. I don't understand why someone who wants to be aggressive, could just be satisfied with the returns that 100% in equities will provide you. If you need higher returns than what 100% equities can give you to accomplish your goals, I would say you need to earn more, save more, or rethink your goals.
by averagedude
Sat Jun 11, 2022 10:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Teachers: what are your best personal finance tips?
Replies: 180
Views: 36098

Re: Teachers: what are your best personal finance tips?

Not to bust anyone's views about how grossly underpaid teachers are, but I can assure you that there are alot of teachers or spouses of teachers on this forum. Studies have shown that teachers are near the top of professions that make up the millionaire class. Fairly understandable because most teachers have high intelligence and even if they are married to another "low paid" profession like a police officer, they are at the top quartile of the income distribution in the United States. This isn't even accounting for the pensions that some of these jobs provide. I for one do appreciate our public service workers and I believe that most deserve every penny that they earn. Personal finance tips that some teachers would give is to liv...
by averagedude
Sat Jun 11, 2022 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do most people lose money or make money investing in the stock market?
Replies: 69
Views: 9671

Re: Do most people lose money or make money investing in the stock market?

Goldwater85 wrote: Thu Jun 09, 2022 1:55 pm I believe I saw that the average investor from 2000 - 2020 earned approximately 2/3 of the market return in their equities. As you allude to, the difference is primarily attributable to the fear/greed cycle.
Some truth to this statement, but lets not forget that some of the difference is attributable to investment management fees.
by averagedude
Mon Jun 06, 2022 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 77 and a little worried
Replies: 38
Views: 7670

Re: 77 and a little worried

If you are only spending half of your RMD, you should not have to worry.
by averagedude
Sun Jun 05, 2022 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would you choose (early retirement hypothetical)
Replies: 30
Views: 4073

Re: What would you choose (early retirement hypothetical)

I believe you could benefit from counseling before making a decision. Acknowledging this does not mean in any way that you are a failure. You have the means to afford it and may be free from your employer.