Search found 1115 matches

by averagedude
Thu May 21, 2020 7:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What will the effect be on VBTLX after $6T Fed & gov stimulus?
Replies: 8
Views: 885

Re: What will the effect be on VBTLX after $6T Fed & gov stimulus?

No one really knows, but in my opinion don't expect your bond fund to experience 3% long term real returns like it did in the past.
by averagedude
Wed May 13, 2020 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is total market weighted index best?
Replies: 61
Views: 4269

Re: Why is total market weighted index best?

Really don't know which will outperform in the future, but market cap weighting follows the principals of the efficient market hypothesis. This is enough reason for me to choose it.
by averagedude
Wed May 13, 2020 9:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to look for a good Primary Care Physician (PCP), and no price transparency...
Replies: 35
Views: 2055

Re: How to look for a good Primary Care Physician (PCP), and no price transparency...

This is a very good question and I am looking forward to the answers. It seems to me that the "best doctors" have a large client base which means they have less time to spend with each customer. Me personally, I would rather have a doctor that has time to spend on my current concerns that may be les...
by averagedude
Wed May 13, 2020 8:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Reducing Risk Due to High Stock Valuations
Replies: 6
Views: 459

Re: Reducing Risk Due to High Stock Valuations

I do agree that the stock market is overvalued and priced to perfection for the next 12 months. Do you really think that over the next 20 years that the bond market will produce better results than the stock market? The dividend yield on stocks is higher than long term treasuries right now, and if t...
by averagedude
Wed May 13, 2020 8:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does Delaying Social Security Deliver an 8% Return?
Replies: 92
Views: 7422

Re: Does Delaying Social Security Deliver an 8% Return?

To me, delaying social security to get 8% increases isn't about maximizing payouts. It's about mitigating longevity risk. As a middle income US citizen, the payout at 70 gives me a floor of income that I can be content with if need be. I also love the fact that this income is inflation adjusted fore...
by averagedude
Mon May 11, 2020 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reacting to low interest rates
Replies: 80
Views: 5944

Re: Reacting to low interest rates

Seems like you understand basic investing principals. Assuming your job is stable and your savings rate is in the double digits, option B seems reasonable to me.
by averagedude
Mon May 11, 2020 7:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to adjust for inflation in retirement planning?
Replies: 19
Views: 1102

Re: How to adjust for inflation in retirement planning?

I have been retirement planning since my mid 20's. I have always used real returns in today's dollars. In my opinion, this is the correct way to plan, and it is also easier to comprehend the numbers.
by averagedude
Mon May 11, 2020 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally lowers APR on savings from 1.5% to 1.25%
Replies: 68
Views: 7857

Re: Ally lowers APR on savings from 1.5% to 1.25%

Surely, we all knew this was coming soon.
by averagedude
Sat May 09, 2020 8:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Would you go with a bond index fund or a 3% Guaranteed fund?
Replies: 54
Views: 4561

Re: Would you go with a bond index fund or a 3% Guaranteed fund?

TheEleven wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 7:43 pm
averagedude wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 7:21 pm
3% guaranteed? Surely you have to think of reinvestment risk or am I missing something?
I'm not experienced enough to know exactly what this means.
A 3% guaranteed fund today can become a 2% guaranteed fund tomorrow.
by averagedude
Sat May 09, 2020 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will "work from home" destroy the commercial real estate market?
Replies: 169
Views: 13034

Re: Will "work from home" destroy the commercial real estate market?

This whole thread discusses the future demand side to the office real estate market, but to really dig into the weeds of future pricing of this market, you have to look at the supply side also. Corporate investors are good at spotting trends, and if they stop adding supply, profitability of existing...
by averagedude
Sat May 09, 2020 7:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Would you go with a bond index fund or a 3% Guaranteed fund?
Replies: 54
Views: 4561

Re: Would you go with a bond index fund or a 3% Guaranteed fund?

3% guaranteed? Surely you have to think of reinvestment risk or am I missing something?
by averagedude
Sat May 09, 2020 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can't believe how ridiculously expensive Shopify is [Stock]
Replies: 65
Views: 4363

Re: Can't believe how ridiculously expensive Shopify is [Stock]

Who knows? Their definitely isn't no firm foundation, but their may be some castle's in the air.
by averagedude
Wed May 06, 2020 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total market or S&P 500?
Replies: 44
Views: 3572

Re: Total market or S&P 500?

Splitting hairs and it doesn't matter. A 84/16 approach sounds completely reasonable to me. Perhaps with rebalancing every year, you might squeeze a few basis points of extra returns a year by doing so. I don't advocate it, but I have the same options in my 401k and i split the 500 index and extende...
by averagedude
Tue May 05, 2020 4:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All my friends are outperforming index funds
Replies: 122
Views: 11142

Re: All my friends are outperforming index funds

Are you investing to beat your friends, or are you investing to accomplish your personal goals? Keep your eye on the prize! I would think that investing in index funds in a boring way is the safest and surest route to reach your destination.
by averagedude
Mon May 04, 2020 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Uh, Cramer? [urging us to dump S&P 500 index funds]
Replies: 15
Views: 2177

Re: Uh, Cramer?

Jim Cramer has written "I'm a guy trying to do an entertainment show about business." The premise of his show, and his website, TheStreet.com, are dedicated to the dream of making a lot of money through successful stock-picking. It is possible that you can do better stock-picking by following him t...
by averagedude
Fri May 01, 2020 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead
Replies: 96
Views: 8988

Re: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead

I believe it boils down to sectors. Technology companies have wide moats, high earnings growth, and huge profit margins. Could change one day due to government intervention and increased global competition. Value will shine again, but it could be years. Who knows, maybe one day their will be a coupl...
by averagedude
Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Podcast - Wade Pfau: The 4% Rule Is No Longer Safe
Replies: 162
Views: 10091

Re: Podcast - Wade Pfau: The 4% Rule Is No Longer Safe

i actually enjoyed this podcast and I liked (didn't always agree) his perspective on financial planning. The hosts of this podcast has had multiple financial planners as guests, and the questions seem to be the same, with the guests having different answers. I do realize that bond yields are low now...
by averagedude
Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tilt toward healthcare?
Replies: 7
Views: 499

Re: Tilt toward healthcare?

The healthcare sector has performed well over the last 20 years. Like others have said, it is a sector that can be decimated by a stroke of a pen. A tilt is fine, but an all in bet would be a very risky proposition.
by averagedude
Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?
Replies: 110
Views: 9274

Re: Anyone wish they would have invested more during recent downturn?

Yea, in hindsight right now I wish I would had invested more. I also wished i would had invested in monster energy drink or bitcoin in the last 20 years. I also had a time when I thought I should invest everything in Circuit City, but I sure am glad I didn't. Hindsight is 20/20.
by averagedude
Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What explains the continued rise in equities?
Replies: 167
Views: 12661

Re: What explains the continued rise in equities?

What's the alternative? For people in 20s, 30s, 40s, that largely need growth to hit their retirement goals, they more or less have to keep putting money in equities. Also retired people who need positive real returns to keep from running out of money in retirement. if you are a retiree who believe...
by averagedude
Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What explains the continued rise in equities?
Replies: 167
Views: 12661

Re: What explains the continued rise in equities?

Trillions of dollars and right now there are some people at the lower salary range that are making the most money they have ever made in their life without lifting a finger. When this is over, investors are anticipating these people and others going on massive shopping sprees. There is a saying on W...
by averagedude
Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Switching to an actively managed plan in this market.
Replies: 14
Views: 969

Re: Switching to an actively managed plan in this market.

Ahh, a salesperson that promises all of the upside of a bull market and will get you out near the top so you experience very little downside in a bear market. A concept that has been marketed for decades, and lines the pockets for commissioned salespeople and the employer they represent. I bet he us...
by averagedude
Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone Heard of the Dividend Machine or High Yield Landlord?
Replies: 59
Views: 3771

Re: Anyone Heard of the Dividend Machine or High Yield Landlord?

Glad to see that your friend has an investment that he can brag about. Does he have any investments that are duds, or is one of those guys that only talks about the home runs, but keeps his strike outs as a secret.
by averagedude
Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Why The Value Factor May Never Recover“
Replies: 19
Views: 1702

Re: “Why The Value Factor May Never Recover“

Perhaps the two biggest debates in stock investing. International vs US, and value vs growth. The future winners are unknown and will only be declared victors in hindsight.
by averagedude
Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks
Replies: 82
Views: 6183

Re: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks

Big believer in total bond. Yes, it may not be optimal when the S&P tanks, but you have to look at the best bond holding to have over the long term. All of the bond types listed by the OP has exposures in total bond. Me personally, I found that the total bond market worked like a charm when rebalanc...
by averagedude
Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Estimating Future Returns
Replies: 28
Views: 1332

Re: Estimating Future Returns

Very good question that is being answered by very intelligent people. If I was a young investor, I would estimate real returns of stocks to be 5%. If I was a retired investor, I would estimate 3.5% for stocks. Perhaps it is best to be an optimist If you are young, and be a bit pessimist if you are r...
by averagedude
Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: S&P 500 vs Total Market Index funds
Replies: 67
Views: 5155

Re: S&P 500 vs Total Market Index funds

I would choose VTSAX because it has roughly 5 times the number of holdings and I believe over the long term mid/small companies will have better returns. In reality, both are good funds and the difference between the two will probably be insignificant.
by averagedude
Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: lawn care cost
Replies: 107
Views: 10228

Re: lawn care cost

I'm thinking of hiring for my lawn care, I have a 0.25 acre lot, about 1/2 of it is the house, flat terrain. Just for mowing I'm getting quoted in columbus ohio for 40 dollars by high school student. Is that considered a good deal? I mean I'm a pretty cheap guy. I could mow my lawn in about 30 minu...
by averagedude
Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey against index funds?
Replies: 93
Views: 10605

Re: Dave Ramsey against index funds?

Dave Ramsey: The good: This guy built an empire by inspiring people to spend less than you earn. Who would had thought of doing that? The bad: A marketing genius who pushes advertised services to his listening base. Major conflicts of interest. My take: I listen to Clark Howard, who has NEVER pushed...
by averagedude
Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which investing related websites you read regularly?
Replies: 6
Views: 740

Re: Which investing related websites you read regularly?

Bogleheads wiki and the humble dollar by Jonathon Clements.
by averagedude
Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flip from 60/40 to 40/60
Replies: 42
Views: 3556

Re: Flip from 60/40 to 40/60

60/40, 40/60, or 50/50? It probably doesn't matter. The most important thing is choosing one and sticking with it.
by averagedude
Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: USO, the snake oil is changing its ingredients
Replies: 20
Views: 1832

Re: USO, the snake oil is changing its ingredients

I wonder what percentage of investors read the prospectus of etf's before putting their money up. I'm guilty myself, but it is an exercise of doing your due diligence.
by averagedude
Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The new Bull Market Official Thread
Replies: 11
Views: 1211

Re: The new Bull Market Official Thread

Could be wrong, but I heard that for a bull market to be claimed, their must be a 20% increase that lasts for a minimum of 6 months. We will have to wait a while to determine if this is really a bull market.
by averagedude
Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AAPL MSFT GOOG AMZN ???
Replies: 85
Views: 6472

Re: AAPL MSFT GOOG AMZN ???

Welcome to the forum as I see this is your first post. Sorry, but bogleheads are just plain jane investors who know that they aren't smart enough to price individual stocks better than the wisdom of ivy league educated people who spend 40+ hours a week pricing individual stocks, with more informatio...
by averagedude
Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds performance - Q1 2020
Replies: 151
Views: 6261

Re: Vanguard factor funds performance - Q1 2020

As a contrarian, I would expect better 10 year returns out of the value factor etf, than I would the total stock market. Hypothetically, If both of these funds break even at the same time 6 years from now, the total stock market will return 4% annually as the value factor fund will produce a 9% annu...
by averagedude
Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: (3FP) - How much intl?
Replies: 18
Views: 1159

Re: (3FP) - How much intl?

I think your 60/40 is fantastic. I believe 40% is the right starting point, and then adjust from their for what makes you feel comfortable.
by averagedude
Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New To Investing
Replies: 6
Views: 299

Re: New To Investing

Continue reading. Surely after reading this book you will realize that costs matter. PEOPX has an expense ratio of 0.50%. You can find an equivalent fund and pay a tenth of the cost. I do like the strategy of a Roth ira that invests in the top 500 companies in the US.
by averagedude
Sun Apr 19, 2020 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR Data: 6.5 Million Possibilities Considered
Replies: 152
Views: 7112

Re: SWR Data: 6.5 Million Possibilities Considered

I'm a big believer in the 4% rule, especially for people who still have human capital to lean on in case stocks tank. Is it really a big deal if you have to get a job for a year or two if stocks tank, which is entirely possible to do if you are under the age of 65. If you are older than this, the 4%...
by averagedude
Sun Apr 19, 2020 6:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I'm out [of the market]
Replies: 109
Views: 11835

Re: I'm out [of the market]

Much better getting out now than in mid to late March like other people did. I see this market going sideways for quite a while and staying in a 2500-2900 trading range on the S&P. You don’t know that, I don’t know that, nobody knows that. All we know is that long term stocks go up. You are right, ...
by averagedude
Sun Apr 19, 2020 4:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I'm out [of the market]
Replies: 109
Views: 11835

Re: I'm out [of the market]

Much better getting out now than in mid to late March like other people did. I see this market going sideways for quite a while and staying in a 2500-2900 trading range on the S&P.
by averagedude
Thu Apr 16, 2020 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chances of no recession in 2020
Replies: 12
Views: 1599

Re: Chances of no recession in 2020

We are in a global recession right now. The market is always ahead of the economists in situations like this. Economist are very good at telling you what has happened in the past, but they are terrible at predicting what will happen in the future.
by averagedude
Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Convince me - for or against bigger home
Replies: 92
Views: 5453

Re: Convince me - for or against bigger home

My living space is around 1500 square feet for 2 people. We spend 90% of our time in about 600 square feet. We could have a 5000 square foot home, but I know it wouldn't increase our happiness. Actually it would decrease our happiness due to more to clean, maintain, and subtract the time of our desi...
by averagedude
Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?
Replies: 104
Views: 8052

Re: The zillion dollar question: when will the market bottom out?

I'm guessing a number of people are in my situation of having a chunk of money (about 10K in my case) that they'd like to invest in the market but would ideally like to do so when the market is near bottom. Curious when people think this will be. Now? After a few weeks once the East Coast has great...
by averagedude
Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What in the world is propping up this market?
Replies: 206
Views: 20748

Re: What in the world is propping up this market?

Market down today, earning season in. Time for the market to go sideways, perhaps down a little.
by averagedude
Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worried about the future of REITs
Replies: 62
Views: 4452

Re: Worried about the future of REITs

Not a huge fan of Reits. I understand the diversification benefit of this asset class being non corelated, but you could say the same about utilities, which is less non correlated. Regardless, I think it boils down to earnings if this sector outperforms the market. I see alot of headwinds in this as...
by averagedude
Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now
Replies: 128
Views: 13141

Re: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now

Even coming out of the financial crisis, extended duration bonds have been one of the best asset classes over the last 10 years. Not saying I would invest in them now or ever.
by averagedude
Tue Apr 14, 2020 8:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sector ETFs
Replies: 9
Views: 439

Re: Sector ETFs

Yes, if a major airline goes bankrupt, expect it to reflect in the share price of the etf. The top ten holding in this etf make up close to 70% of its holdings. Kind of like if I have an etf in junk bonds, and several companies default, I can expect it to trickle down to the etf price. Usually in th...
by averagedude
Tue Apr 14, 2020 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What in the world is propping up this market?
Replies: 206
Views: 20748

Re: What in the world is propping up this market?

I expected the SP500 would reach 2900 fairly quickly. Now expect a sideways market for a while. Just a prediction, please don't act on this because I'm certainly not. Unlock won't be swift. I still don't think that's priced in to the market as a whole. Sideways action will slowly shake winners to t...
by averagedude
Tue Apr 14, 2020 8:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Follow along if you want (market timing maybe)
Replies: 26
Views: 2897

Re: Follow along if you want (market timing maybe)

Why don't you do us all a favor that no one else on this forum does. Let all of us know of the day that you buy back in, on the day that you buy back in. Most people "buy back in" but let us know months later after they did so.
by averagedude
Tue Apr 14, 2020 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What in the world is propping up this market?
Replies: 206
Views: 20748

Re: What in the world is propping up this market?

I expected the SP500 would reach 2900 fairly quickly. Now expect a sideways market for a while. Just a prediction, please don't act on this because I'm certainly not.