Search found 667 matches

by averagedude
Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the Worst Thing That Can Happen to Bonds Outside of Inflation?
Replies: 12
Views: 1369

Re: What's the Worst Thing That Can Happen to Bonds Outside of Inflation?

The actions of the Fed could also affect bond yields, which would affect bond funds. Look back to the early 1980's. The Fed chose to increase interest rates dramatically to choke off the inflation that plagued the US in the later 1970s. I wasn't investing in bond funds at the time, but I recall tha...
by averagedude
Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the Worst Thing That Can Happen to Bonds Outside of Inflation?
Replies: 12
Views: 1369

Re: What's the Worst Thing That Can Happen to Bonds Outside of Inflation?

Worst case scenario? Default of the US government. The US has increased it's debt ceiling 10 times over the last 10 years and to do so needs congress approval. A few of these times, congress has been in bitter battles to do so which could result in a default, which could cause the government to not ...
by averagedude
Fri Aug 16, 2019 3:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!
Replies: 115
Views: 10314

Re: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!

So OP, how are you allocated. I notice on another thread where you said that stock market returns over the next 10 years will be negative. Have you sold out yet? I never said that. I'm 100% stock*, 90% VTI and 10% VXUS. I'm bullish on America and never sell stock. * Except for my venture capital fu...
by averagedude
Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!
Replies: 115
Views: 10314

Re: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!

So OP, how are you allocated. I notice on another thread where you said that stock market returns over the next 10 years will be negative. Have you sold out yet?
by averagedude
Sun Aug 11, 2019 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you think oil prices will drop where would you invest?
Replies: 70
Views: 3548

Re: If you think oil prices will drop where would you invest?

If I invested by what i thought, my net worth would be half of what it is today. I would be changing my investments on every election cycle. I would be changing my investments on any news event that triggered any fear or greed emotions. I would have larger trading costs. I would engage in stock pick...
by averagedude
Sun Aug 11, 2019 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a car, does it make sense to use 401k loan instead of an auto loan?
Replies: 37
Views: 2557

Re: Buying a car, does it make sense to use 401k loan instead of an auto loan?

I believe that successful 401k millionaires follow these principles. 1. They start young. 2. They contribute a high percentage of their income to it or they contribute the maximum allowed. 3. They have a high stock allocation. 4. They never, ever, cash out when changing jobs. 5. They never consider ...
by averagedude
Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do dividends still exist?
Replies: 204
Views: 11709

Re: Why do dividends still exist?

Without dividends, there wouldn't be much incentive to buy stocks of slow-growth companies like utilities. Actually if these same slow growth companies bought back shares with the money they pay dividends to shareholders, it would dilute the shares outstanding, thus increasing their earnings per sh...
by averagedude
Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Critique my exercise routine because it's not working for me
Replies: 160
Views: 8842

Re: Critique my exercise routine because it's not working for me

Didn't read the whole thread, but i can personally out eat any exercise routine.
by averagedude
Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do dividends still exist?
Replies: 204
Views: 11709

Re: Why do dividends still exist?

Perhaps it gives investor's a false sense of security.
by averagedude
Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 264
Views: 15774

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

I do see some merits of your thoughts on long term treasuries and this could be a good rule of thumb for some investors, but I disagree that this is the optimal strategy for all investors. People hold bonds for different purposes, and the purpose for which you hold bonds, should dictate how you allo...
by averagedude
Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rollover to Vanguard or Fidelity?
Replies: 32
Views: 1920

Re: Rollover to Vanguard or Fidelity?

I believe consolidating all of your holding to one provider is worth the effort. It really simplify's things, which is something you will appreciate as you get older. Both are considered low cost providers and prudent choices.
by averagedude
Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 year treasury yield
Replies: 34
Views: 2732

Re: 10 year treasury yield

Just another example that predicting interest rates is just as hard as predicting stock market returns.
by averagedude
Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Staying the AA course even in market extremes?
Replies: 22
Views: 1375

Re: Staying the AA course even in market extremes?

It's best to have an investment policy statement and follow it. Of course your investment policy statement may change over time due to your risk tolerance and your risk capacity. I would suggest that if you ever change your investment policy statement, it should have these two tenants. 1. Never reas...
by averagedude
Tue Aug 06, 2019 5:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing Question
Replies: 8
Views: 675

Re: Rebalancing Question

Another way of doing it is this. 1. Direct your money to the allocation that you desire. 2. Look at your statements every quarter to make sure no funny business is going on, but don't worry about the balance. 3. Once a year, on your birthday or other date, rebalance back to your allocations and leav...
by averagedude
Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone running 50/50 stock bond who is younger?
Replies: 45
Views: 4353

Re: Is anyone running 50/50 stock bond who is younger?

I do believe you would benefit by having a higher equity allocation going forward if you are young, but having a 50/50 portfolio when you are young is leaps and bounds ahead of the average young person who is living paycheck to paycheck and has a negative net worth.
by averagedude
Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Father investing with Edward Jones
Replies: 43
Views: 4441

Re: Father investing with Edward Jones

If your Dad agrees with you, but is concerned about his relationship with his advisor because he really likes him, tell him to send a Christmas card to him with a thousand dollars in it. He will still be coming out ahead if he does this.
by averagedude
Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: My "Timing the Market" Experiment
Replies: 55
Views: 5327

Re: My "Timing the Market" Experiment

I tried it once and failed. It cost me $4000 which in 20 years could become a $32000 mistake. In my opinion, the worst thing that can happen to you is that you are successful in your experiment. Then you will think that you are really smart and you will be trying it dozens of time in the future. Mos...
by averagedude
Sat Aug 03, 2019 7:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I send new 401k contributions to an equity or bond fund in this late cycle?
Replies: 25
Views: 1480

Re: Should I send new 401k contributions to an equity or bond fund in this late cycle?

I remember in 1992 that most pundits were talking how expensive stocks were. Stocks did great from 1992 to 1999. The best stock market return period in my lifetime. In other words, noone really knows.
by averagedude
Sat Aug 03, 2019 7:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Advice
Replies: 11
Views: 994

Re: Investment Advice

The answer is it depends. How much do you want to leave your heirs.
by averagedude
Sat Aug 03, 2019 7:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Only 33 years work history / Social Security:
Replies: 23
Views: 5287

Re: Only 33 years work history / Social Security:

I think it would be insignificant for most bogleheads. Go to the social security website and they have a spreadsheet for you to figure this out. Them zeros of two years will probably be less than 50 dollars a month.
by averagedude
Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Five Portfolio Lessons From Target Date Funds"
Replies: 10
Views: 1364

Re: "Five Portfolio Lessons From Target Date Funds"

Great post Taylor. Some ( or all) practitioners of active management bash target date funds to lure uneducated people to believe that they need a professional to manage their assets. These advisors or paid media journalists are doing a disservice to these people. I am also a big believer in target d...
by averagedude
Sun Jul 28, 2019 8:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Finally wrote our Investment Policy Statement - please critique
Replies: 27
Views: 2069

Re: Finally wrote our Investment Policy Statement - please critique

We personally don't have an investment policy statement, but we should. What you have done is great. The only criticism I have is that your AA should not be static on the dates you have selected. Although the principle of your AA on these dates is sound, we don't know where the markets will be at on...
by averagedude
Sun Jul 28, 2019 12:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help with fund placement in retirement accounts
Replies: 7
Views: 584

Re: Help with fund placement in retirement accounts

I would place the 10% bond allocation in your solo 401k. Leave it out of your Roth accounts. Any asset classes that will have higher returns should be in Roth. Unfortuntly, i don't know which asset classes these will be.
by averagedude
Sun Jul 28, 2019 10:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Midlife investing crisis? At a crossroads; need book advice.
Replies: 33
Views: 3722

Re: Midlife investing crisis? At a crossroads; need book advice.

A couple of resources you may enjoy.
1. Mr Money Mustache blog posts.
2. "Your money or your life" book.
3. "Die broke" book.
by averagedude
Sun Jul 28, 2019 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a High Tech Bubble in S&P 500 & Total Market?
Replies: 152
Views: 10104

Re: Too much tech in total stock market?

This salesperson was just wanting your business. Did you really think that he would tell you that your portfolio was great and he couldn't provide no value to you? He would only tell you that if you had little assets.
by averagedude
Sun Jul 28, 2019 9:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you move past old financial mistakes?
Replies: 57
Views: 4776

Re: How do you move past old financial mistakes?

I don't classify this as a mistake, just like i don't classify that i made a mistake that i didn't purchase $10,000 worth of Apple stock in 2003. If i had, i would have 2 million dollars right now. We both didn't have no way of knowing.
by averagedude
Sun Jul 28, 2019 9:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investment advice for my 33 year old son.
Replies: 10
Views: 1136

Re: Investment advice for my 33 year old son.

The etf decision is minor compared to the not investing decision. He needs to become educated on the fact that stocks performing poorly when you are young is a great thing. I am benefiting greatly now from all of the stocks i purchased from 2000 to 2010, as i was happily buying mutual fund shares at...
by averagedude
Sun Jul 28, 2019 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should Roth & Traditional accounts be invested similarly?
Replies: 16
Views: 1294

Re: Should Roth & Traditional accounts be invested similarly?

Here's what has me thinking. From the perspective of tax consequences, some of the losses in my tIRA could be seen as paid for by the IRS in a reduced tax burden, but all of my losses in a ROTH are paid for by me. I see the ROTH as being a beneficial tool in providing a buffer when approaching a "t...
by averagedude
Sun Jul 28, 2019 8:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The new 1 fund portfolio
Replies: 57
Views: 8183

Re: The new 1 fund portfolio

Yet another thread that ends up being a debate about what percentage of International should be in your portfolio. OP, i would determine what allocation you desire on domestic/international and then make a decision on what to invest in. You may achieve this with one fund, or you might need two funds...
by averagedude
Mon Jul 22, 2019 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on 33% Large 33% Mid and 33% small?
Replies: 81
Views: 5462

Re: Thoughts on 33% Large 33% Mid and 33% small?

I am very curious on everyone's thoughts on having a portfolio that is 100% equities and then broken down to 33% large cap, 33% Mid Cap and then 33% Small Cap? Lets hear your thoughts on this model please? Thats pretty much the way I invested for 20 years, and it worked well. Now that i am older, i...
by averagedude
Sun Jul 21, 2019 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has DFA failed to innovate and keep up
Replies: 59
Views: 4883

Re: Has DFA failed to innovate and keep up

I don't follow DFA but the world has changed since Fama and French did their research. With the advent of ETFs that for almost nothing slice the market every which way and low cost computer power, market anomalies, i.e. excess risk adjusted return, have probably disappeared. What could possibly be ...
by averagedude
Sun Jul 21, 2019 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One bad decision - examples?
Replies: 67
Views: 6835

Re: One bad decision - examples?

After the market crashes, you sell out and purchase an annuity that an insurance person sells you.
by averagedude
Sat Jul 20, 2019 10:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 401k changes.
Replies: 5
Views: 528

Re: 401k changes.

Slightly cheaper and basically the same, but less transparency.
by averagedude
Sat Jul 20, 2019 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has DFA failed to innovate and keep up
Replies: 59
Views: 4883

Re: Has DFA failed to innovate and keep up

I think that if DFA wants to innovate and increase their market share, they could achieve it by opening their funds to the public, without restricting them from going through an advisor, and also lowering their fees. There are many individual investors who have interest for passive index funds that...
by averagedude
Sat Jul 20, 2019 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has DFA failed to innovate and keep up
Replies: 59
Views: 4883

Re: Has DFA failed to innovate and keep up

I think that if DFA wants to innovate and increase their market share, they could achieve it by opening their funds to the public, without restricting them from going through an advisor, and also lowering their fees. There are many individual investors who have interest for passive index funds that ...
by averagedude
Sat Jul 20, 2019 10:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Explaining the magic of compound interest to teenagers
Replies: 107
Views: 5940

Re: Explaining the magic of compound interest to teenagers

I can think of no simpler, more effective lesson to the power of compound interest than the 'would you rather have a million dollars today or a penny doubled every day for a month? question. This! I attribute most of my financial success to me comprehending the "magic" of compound interest. After t...
by averagedude
Sat Jul 20, 2019 9:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: A little discouraged with earnings, is it really this slow?
Replies: 66
Views: 9505

Re: A little discouraged with earnings, is it really this slow?

You are doing great and way ahead of most people your age. Don't be discouraged. On a 42 year time horizon, the magic of compounding will appear in the last 15 years.
by averagedude
Sat Jul 20, 2019 9:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ally Savings vs Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund - Need Advice
Replies: 99
Views: 19791

Re: Ally Savings vs Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund - Need Advice

Splitting hairs. Go with the choice that has the proper balance of yield and convenience for you.
by averagedude
Sat Jul 20, 2019 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One bad decision - examples?
Replies: 67
Views: 6835

Re: One bad decision - examples?

A few examples with the top three being the most damaging. 1. Market timing. 2. Making emotional investment decisions based on fear or greed. 3. An investment decision that leaves you with a concentrated position. 4. Thinking you are smarter than the crowd. 5. Acting on stock tips from experts. 6. E...
by averagedude
Sat Jul 20, 2019 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inverted Yield Curves and Value Factor
Replies: 12
Views: 1179

Re: Inverted Yield Curves and Value Factor

Seems to me that the bond market is predicting recession, and the stock market thinks the bull market will continue. Nobody really knows, but the bond market is right more often. Really this is nothing actionable, although i believe that this is a good time to make sure that your asset allocation is...
by averagedude
Sat Jul 20, 2019 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Has anyone seen the documentary "Playing with FIRE?"
Replies: 216
Views: 18806

Re: Has anyone seen the documentary "Playing with FIRE?"

I haven't been to a movie in 20 years, but my wife mentioned today how going to a movie, eating popcorn, and having a big drink could be fun since she seen on facebook that her friend was seeing the Lion King movie. I said " hey, there is this new movie our there called playing with fire that i woul...
by averagedude
Sat Jul 20, 2019 8:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What tilt(s) have you adopted?
Replies: 28
Views: 1686

Re: What tilt(s) have you adopted?

OP, my tilts are almost identical to yours. Not enough to make a big difference, but not too large that i will feel terrible if the domestic, size, and value factors turn out to be losing trades. With that being said, making or losing 25 to 50 extra basis points on your annualized rate of return can...
by averagedude
Sat Jul 20, 2019 1:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The skyrocketing cost of long term care and how to pay for it
Replies: 33
Views: 3284

Re: The skyrocketing cost of long term care and how to pay for it

My plan, which could be wrong, is to self insure for 5 years of long term care. If one of us needs a longer stay, I'm planning on Medicaid. I don't care if all of my money is gone, just as long as my spouse doesn't become impoverished. There are medicaid planning strategy's that should prevent this,...
by averagedude
Sat Jul 20, 2019 1:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Issues Approaching Retirement
Replies: 40
Views: 2510

Re: Portfolio Issues Approaching Retirement

OP, i think a 50/50 AA is a prudent choice, and in my opinion is the optimal strategy for you. I agree with Willthrill81, that you or anyone else should never have less than a 30% allocation to stocks.
by averagedude
Sat Jul 20, 2019 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 21 Year Old with Roth Ira Looking for Investment Split Advice
Replies: 12
Views: 598

Re: 21 Year Old with Roth Ira Looking for Investment Split Advice

Check out the two funds for life that Paul Merriman recommends. Check out a target date fund. What about a life strategy fund? How about total world index? All in VTSAX? Really, all that is important is that you start investing and keep adding to it. What will determine your success will be your ass...
by averagedude
Wed Jul 17, 2019 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Edward Jones trap
Replies: 91
Views: 14956

Re: Edward Jones trap

I believe the majority of people who have been with EJ for years are happy with them. They have seen their account balances grow and have benefited from stock market investing. With that being said, most are uneducated on how cost matters, and how much more their accounts would be if they had a more...
by averagedude
Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: No A/C in Office [not a safe work environment]
Replies: 86
Views: 7953

Re: No A/C in Office [not a safe work environment]

OP - you consistently make comments in your posts regarding the poor state of your work environment. (That it's a 'grind' 'chained to your desk' and so on). I can only encourage you with the information that there are better options out there, and that the current job market is strong enough that n...
by averagedude
Mon Jul 15, 2019 7:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Referral for Financial Planner
Replies: 17
Views: 1389

Re: Referral for Financial Planner

Garrett Planning Network may be a good choice for you. Fee only with nothing to sell that acts as a fiduciary. Usually costs $300 an hour.
by averagedude
Mon Jul 15, 2019 5:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What asset class is gold?
Replies: 41
Views: 2889

Re: What asset class is gold?

Got it. I will hold it outside my 60/40 AA. Since 1972, a 60/40 U.S. portfolio had a safe withdrawal rate of 4.5%. Had 50% of the fixed income been alotted to gold (i.e. a 60/20/20 AA), the SWR was 5.4%. Just sayin'. Gold had a big run from 1972 to 1980. Actually during this period, it was a ten ba...
by averagedude
Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will you buy Total Bond with a negative yield?
Replies: 112
Views: 12130

Re: Will you buy Total Bond with a negative yield?

SO FAR, negative rate bonds in some developed countries has been a profitable trade for investors. If you had told a bond manager 10 years ago that their would be negative rates in the future and investors would flock to them, they would have asked you what you have been smoking.