Search found 32 matches

by spreadsheetguy
Mon Nov 23, 2020 12:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 1324
Views: 175065

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

47 now and would like $2million+ by 52 (about 2/3 of the way there now!)
by spreadsheetguy
Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Long Term Capital Gains rate
Replies: 20
Views: 1937

Re: Long Term Capital Gains rate

I was always confused by capital gains, but this thread has helped, especially the diagram.
by spreadsheetguy
Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement
Replies: 155
Views: 24552

Re: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement

Thanks for posting this tool. I like how it shows the probability of death right up there as part of the possible portfolio outcomes. Seeing the "grey wedge" of death grow and grow exponentially to where it becomes the final (and only) outcome--that sure is sobering. It puts things in the...
by spreadsheetguy
Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: YoutubeTV subscription now $64.99/month
Replies: 174
Views: 17536

Re: YoutubeTV subscription now $64.99/month

We pay $30 for sling's blue package which gives us the channels we'd watch. We'll sometimes upgrade for a month or two to get additional channels like the sports package but mostly we just go with the basic and it seems like a decent compromise relative to an expensive cable subscription.
by spreadsheetguy
Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement
Replies: 155
Views: 24552

Re: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement

Just noticed a few new things on the calculator that make it even more useful. The creator has added spending flexibility to the calculator which lets you reduce your spending by x% if your balance falls below a certain level that you can set. Another thing is that there are now 3 different life exp...
by spreadsheetguy
Sat Jun 27, 2020 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where should my nephew go to college?
Replies: 55
Views: 3663

Re: Where should my nephew go to college?

Honestly, I think it will depend alot on what he wants to study. The value of a school would be best judged by how employers view the graduates of the institution and the relative cost of the school. But the view of employers will depend on what subject areas you are looking at (engineering, compute...
by spreadsheetguy
Sat Jun 27, 2020 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual fund, effect on stock prices
Replies: 5
Views: 383

Re: Mutual fund, effect on stock prices

very interesting stuff. Thanks for the info. I do wonder what happens on days where there's a big meltdown right near the end of the day.
by spreadsheetguy
Tue May 05, 2020 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tell me what I don't know about retirement?
Replies: 55
Views: 5135

Re: Tell me what I don't know about retirement?

There's a social security tax "cliff". Essentially if you make additional income over your SS check, such as RMD withdrawals from IRA or any other source, you could push yourself into a higher SS tax bracket and that means more taxes. Single: Income between $25,000 and $34,000, 50% of your...
by spreadsheetguy
Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 32644

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

the Rich, Broke or Dead calculator shows a 32% chance of failing on a 60/40 portfolio over 45 year horizon. https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/?spend=40000&initsav=1000000&age=45&yrs=45&stockpct=60&bondpct=40&cashpct=0&sex=0&infl=1&taxrate=0&am...
by spreadsheetguy
Fri Jul 19, 2019 3:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bad time to enter the market?
Replies: 40
Views: 4529

Re: Bad time to enter the market?

I think that we know that the markets are at all-time-highs fairly frequently (since the market genreally goes up). This analysis seems to put it into more tangible terms: https://engaging-data.com/market-all-time-high/ basically, the future returns for a market when it is at an all time high are ve...
by spreadsheetguy
Tue Jan 29, 2019 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What Percentage of Your Pre-Retirement Income are You Projecting You Will Need?
Replies: 108
Views: 8170

Re: What Percentage of Your Pre-Retirement Income are You Projecting You Will Need?

We've projected about 110% of our pre-retirement spending. It doesn't make sense to look at % of pre-retirement income because our income is highly variable. However, because we've tracked spending meticulously we know what we will likely spend (accounting for an increase in healthcare costs).
by spreadsheetguy
Mon Jan 28, 2019 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement
Replies: 155
Views: 24552

Re: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement

Scott Burns, a now-retired personal finance journalist who introduced me to index funds, used to make the point that the probability of your portfolio “failing” at a ripe old age needed to be balanced with the probability of you (or your spouse) not being around to care. Here’s his analysis: https:...
by spreadsheetguy
Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement
Replies: 155
Views: 24552

Re: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement

The discussion of giving money to next generation was a very long detour; maybe could be put into another thread to keep the "how to best use this tool" focus in this thread? I guess toggling death off tells you the chance of failure if you are still alive, no different than other tools. ...
by spreadsheetguy
Sat Dec 22, 2018 9:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Video camera for hiking?
Replies: 13
Views: 1138

Re: Video camera for hiking?

one option is just a regular smartphone camera with a handheld stabilizing gimbal.
It'll make the footage super smooth.
by spreadsheetguy
Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monthly simulation data?
Replies: 10
Views: 914

Re: Monthly simulation data?

I think Shiller has monthly data on his website. However, i'm not sure how much more "accurate" you can be. History is a small sampling in the vast range of what could happen in the future. Getting more granular doesn't help predict the future that is not exactly like the past (which is to...
by spreadsheetguy
Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement
Replies: 155
Views: 24552

Re: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement

yup, you can uncheck the death button, but I like to keep it on. While it's a bit disconcerting to see it loom so large over the later years, it is a very good reminder that we need to balance out the worry of running out of money with the mathematical reality that most of us won't ever have to deal...
by spreadsheetguy
Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement
Replies: 155
Views: 24552

Re: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement

Kompass wrote: Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:39 pm Many thanks!

I knew I was looking at something wrong. I was using those fields inappropriately and had everything skewed, now I feel much better and can live about ten years longer.

:sharebeer
That confused me too. Thanks PaulF!
by spreadsheetguy
Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement
Replies: 155
Views: 24552

Re: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement

I feel like 4% or 3.5% is a perfectly fine level. Flexibility is the key - 90+% of the time you will not need to be flexible and reduce spending. But in a few rare circumstances you’ll have to reduce spending and rely on social security. The more buffet you have in your spending (ie not spending 25k...
by spreadsheetguy
Thu Oct 25, 2018 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement
Replies: 155
Views: 24552

Re: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement

My spending plan is to gradually increase our standard of living from good to better than good. I don't want it to be great, good and then barely acceptable. Saving and living below your means is a Boglehead philosophy. Then you get to retirement of 30 years or more and often the conversation is wh...
by spreadsheetguy
Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement
Replies: 155
Views: 24552

Re: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement

Wouldn't your analogy be more accurate to extend it so that at the start of the trip you'd want to spend a lot of time exploring the desert, thus needing more water, and towards the end, you'll maximize your time in the shade, or travel at night, and bring down your consumption? As I said no analog...
by spreadsheetguy
Wed Oct 24, 2018 12:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 1324
Views: 175065

Re: How much money do you want to retire?

We want about $60-70k per year from our retirement portfolio in our mid 40s. We have some real-estate that will provide some additional income as well. So about $2M is enough for us to retire.
by spreadsheetguy
Tue Oct 23, 2018 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So...what’s Plan B [for your retirement security]?
Replies: 32
Views: 3800

Re: So...what’s Plan B [for your retirement security]?

We are in pretty good shape, but if we were to have issues that cutting back spending by 20% couldn't solve, we could liquidate our real estate and move to a much lower COL area and probably add 40% of our current investable assets. We'll probably get an inheritance too though we aren't expecting to...
by spreadsheetguy
Tue Oct 23, 2018 4:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Yet Another "Can I Retire Yet" Thread
Replies: 40
Views: 5235

Re: Yet Another "Can I Retire Yet" Thread

Honestly your situation looks really good to me. Try this online retirement calculator that was posted in the other forum board https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/?spend=70000&initsav=3400000&age=53&yrs=45&stockpct=70&bondpct=30&cashpct=0&sex=0&inf...
by spreadsheetguy
Tue Oct 23, 2018 1:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too Much Apple [AAPL] Stock
Replies: 70
Views: 9892

Re: Too Much Apple [AAPL] Stock

If you plan to donate some of your savings to charity over your lifetime, the most tax-efficient way to do so is by donating appreciated stock. Assuming you bought the stock more than a year ago, you can donate that AAPL to a DAF and take the entire amount as a deduction against this year's income ...
by spreadsheetguy
Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement
Replies: 155
Views: 24552

Re: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement

Seams like a great idea to help cover education and make sure they start the world debt free, but what about a mortgage? Do we pay for that as well if we could? A mortgage is debt after all. In addition do we help them get a mortgage in an areas that they couldn’t afford on their own? Is that helpf...
by spreadsheetguy
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too Much Apple [AAPL] Stock
Replies: 70
Views: 9892

Re: Too Much APPL Stock

maybe a congrats is in order since you've probably done pretty well on that.
I have the same issue and am trying to slowly sell off some without incurring too much capital gains tax (i.e. trying to stay in the 0% LTCG bracket, but that means I can't sell very much each year).
by spreadsheetguy
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Full View transition to eMoney
Replies: 161
Views: 26659

Re: Fidelity Full View transition to eMoney

It's been a little hit or miss for me. I had to delete all my accounts that were carried over from Yodlee and start over. But it sort of works okay. I haven't used it as much (partly because the market has been going down, so I'm not that excited to look at my accounts). some cons so far: It doesn't...
by spreadsheetguy
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement
Replies: 155
Views: 24552

Re: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement

It seems like WHEN you give money to your children matters alot in the concerns that some people have about reducing their motivation. If as teenagers they know that they will receive money, that is very different from getting money later in life after they have become hopefully self-sufficient. Ho...
by spreadsheetguy
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying Used Tesla Model S? What to look for
Replies: 11
Views: 2201

Re: Buying Used Tesla Model S? What to look for

One issue to think about is repair issues. Apparently insurance costs are fairly high due to high repair costs and repair times can be very long. I've heard repair shops wait a long time for parts from Tesla. Not that these issues should stop you but you should definitely be aware so you're not surp...
by spreadsheetguy
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What tools do you use to track your finances?
Replies: 80
Views: 7563

Re: What tools do you use to track your finances?

Just back to bogleheads to check the thread and am happy for all the fantastic responses.
Good to see all the spreadsheet folks out in force.
by spreadsheetguy
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement
Replies: 155
Views: 24552

Re: Rich, Broke or Dead: Visualizing probabilities of outcomes in early retirement

It seems like WHEN you give money to your children matters alot in the concerns that some people have about reducing their motivation. If as teenagers they know that they will receive money, that is very different from getting money later in life after they have become hopefully self-sufficient. Hop...
by spreadsheetguy
Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What tools do you use to track your finances?
Replies: 80
Views: 7563

What tools do you use to track your finances?

My first post :!: I'm curious about the tools people use to manage and track your :moneybag. Personally, I use Fidelity fullview to consolidate all my accounts. It recently underwent a change for the worse, so I'm curious what other people do. Here's my current setup: Fullview to view all my account...