Search found 56 matches

by Shamb3
Sat Nov 16, 2019 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1993
Views: 208671

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sat Nov 16, 2019 10:25 am
It is being predicted that if specific events come to pass the market will decline by 20 to 30% as fast as the circuit breakers will permit. :shock:
I predict if specific events occur, the stock market will drop 100%.

That event is extinction due to giant meteor
by Shamb3
Fri Nov 15, 2019 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Letting retirement funds grow, without further contribution
Replies: 38
Views: 2127

Re: Letting retirement funds grow, without further contribution

If you start spending that money, you are going to need a bigger nest egg to support the new level of spending. If you keep investing, you can either retire earlier or take more vacations and buy more toys in retirement I am 40, and i have done the theoretical math for myself. If I invest nothing fo...
by Shamb3
Sun Sep 22, 2019 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: American Funds Propaganda. Help me understand.
Replies: 45
Views: 5592

Re: American Funds Propaganda. Help me understand.

Start date is super important.

Put S&P 500 and Russel 2000 and a international index on the same graph. Move the start date around.
by Shamb3
Sat Jul 27, 2019 7:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The new 1 fund portfolio
Replies: 57
Views: 8704

Re: The new 1 fund portfolio

Obviously, no one knows what will perform better in the next 20-30 years. It could easily go either way especially in the short term. Figure out If you want the market in international or not. I personally like the US and a few specific countries a lot better than the total world market, but I have ...
by Shamb3
Sat Jul 13, 2019 5:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1993
Views: 208671

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

*SNIP* At the same time, this doesn't feel like prosperous times. You go to an average mom and pop restaurant and they have one server running all over the place trying to serve all customers. Airports are overcrowded. Planes are overcrowded. Hotels tend to be dirty yet charge astronomical rates. B...
by Shamb3
Tue Jul 09, 2019 9:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Drawing down Inherited IRA vs. Roth Conversions
Replies: 13
Views: 1037

Re: Drawing down Inherited IRA vs. Roth Conversions

I think your RMDs are based on the age of the person you inherited it from correct?
So the percentages you are required to withdraw from that inherited IRA will get larger and larger sooner.

So I would prioritize getting money out of that IRA before my personal one.
by Shamb3
Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good times: 2008 vs Now
Replies: 145
Views: 15770

Re: Good times: 2008 vs Now

***SNIP It is not clear to me if Klang is using his experience to argue that the recovery is not real, or if he's just saying he was personally unlucky. To me, it's the second case. ***SNIP A recession is when someone else looses their job, a depression is when you do. I think that can be very true...
by Shamb3
Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So the year is officially half over
Replies: 32
Views: 3559

Re: So the year is officially half over

2 changes that work together. My 401k contributions have shifted to be mostly pre tax. I am also leaving the 100% equities club earlier than planned. I am leaving slowly though as the fear of missing out on gains is strong with me :D I am 40 now and have aspirations to retire around 55. Original: Wa...
by Shamb3
Tue Apr 30, 2019 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 324
Views: 41818

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

People are razzle dazzled by the technology, visions of the future and promise of riches. Only problem is, you are not buying the technology, the tokens have no intrinsic value and it has less long term value than digital game items. The tokens have no intrinsic value (if you are referring to the d...
by Shamb3
Tue Apr 30, 2019 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 324
Views: 41818

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

People are razzle dazzled by the technology, visions of the future and promise of riches. Only problem is, you are not buying the technology, the tokens have no intrinsic value and it has less long term value than digital game items. The tokens have no intrinsic value (if you are referring to the d...
by Shamb3
Fri Apr 26, 2019 5:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 324
Views: 41818

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

I don't really get the vitriol here against BTC. People get mad about things they don't understand. No anger here. The issue is not if you understand bitcoin, it is if you understand where the value of money comes from. People are razzle dazzled by the technology, visions of the future and promise ...
by Shamb3
Wed Apr 24, 2019 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will MSCI ACWI ex US return in the 2020s ?
Replies: 3
Views: 443

Re: What will MSCI ACWI ex US return in the 2020s ?

I have my doubts, but anything can happen. I started adding some international in 2016 to add some diversity.

P/E is lower, but I think that is largely accounted for different expectations of growth.
More tech in the S&P 500, more financials in the MSCI ACWI ex USA.
by Shamb3
Tue Mar 26, 2019 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why take the risk with equities?
Replies: 122
Views: 8894

Re: Why take the risk with equities?

As a accumulator, because It would take me forever to reach my retirement number without them.

3-4% is the worst case low side of possibilities and failures are mostly due to bad early sequence of returns, which can be mitigated.
by Shamb3
Tue Mar 26, 2019 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When do you notice the compounding at work?
Replies: 137
Views: 28874

Re: When do you notice the compounding at work?

When all the money you invested during down or flat years grows like crazy.

When the growth in one year contributes more than you do.

When your new contributions don't seem to make much of a difference (nearing retirement / financial independence).
by Shamb3
Wed Mar 20, 2019 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is technical analysis all smoke and mirrors?
Replies: 88
Views: 10095

Re: Is technical analysis all smoke and mirrors?

rongos wrote:
Tue Mar 19, 2019 1:26 pm
Lots of cynicism about the market in this thread.

And yet we continue to pin all our retirement hopes on the stock market.

Because it works well, until it doesn't.
The stock market doesn't work until it does.
by Shamb3
Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 817
Views: 101038

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

I'm going to disagree. $1.5 million is more than twice the amount I plan on retiring with. It's an obscene amount of money. Even if it was stashed under my mattress earning 0%, I wouldn't blow through that much money in 50 years. Some people need more money to spend on junk or to support the junk t...
by Shamb3
Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does dividend investing not work?
Replies: 174
Views: 23125

Re: Why does dividend investing not work?

The only benefit I can think of to dividend stock is as a hedge against the markets emotion during withdrawal years.
Having fixed income portion of the portfolio does the same thing and is what most people do.
by Shamb3
Sat Feb 16, 2019 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing during decumulation phase
Replies: 61
Views: 4726

Re: rebalancing during decumulation phase

It probably isn't perfectly optimal, but my preference would be to
Live off of taxable and do tIRA to Roth conversions until taxable is gone.
Live off of tIRa and Roth making tIRA withdrawals to match a target tax rate until tIRA is gone.
Then do whatever, who cares.
by Shamb3
Fri Feb 15, 2019 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you get spooked by the December 2018 fall and gave up on passive?
Replies: 133
Views: 8854

Re: Did you get spooked by the December 2018 fall and gave up on passive?

I would be a liar if I said the market volatility did not make me nervous sometimes. I made no changes though, because the math still works out to say I shouldn't. I am more worried about losing my job because of things going on at my employer lining up at the wrong time with a recession. I think ev...
by Shamb3
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What kind of end balance makes you happy?
Replies: 27
Views: 2149

Re: What kind of end balance makes you happy?

just set the retirement time to 50-60 years.
then all the would succeed for 30 years, but fail if you lived longer scenarios come out as failures

a balance that wont fail if I lived forever (or 110) is what makes me happy.
by Shamb3
Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don’t Compare Your Investment Returns With Others (Especially On The Internet)"
Replies: 34
Views: 3973

Re: "Don’t Compare Your Investment Returns With Others (Especially On The Internet)"

When i was young I worked at a liquor counter that sold lotto tickets. Lots of people bragged about how much they won, but I know these people, they are in there every day spending $5-$20... They never seem to count what they spend, only that they won $120 that one time. That's what I think of whene...
by Shamb3
Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When to add safety?
Replies: 10
Views: 1100

Re: When to add safety?

"When to add safety?" I view a bond / cash position as insurance that I can retire on the date I want to retire. If I add bonds / cash too soon, that could push that date out due to lower return. If I add them too late it risks a bear market significantly delaying that retirement date. So a ideal ti...
by Shamb3
Sun Feb 03, 2019 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What Percentage of Your Pre-Retirement Income are You Projecting You Will Need?
Replies: 108
Views: 7893

Re: What Percentage of Your Pre-Retirement Income are You Projecting You Will Need?

I find it hard to believe that this is given the time of day on this forum, full of intelligent people. Did you read the other responses? Most are telling the OP that the goal should be to cover your expected expenses, not to achieve a percent of pre-retirement income. Right but still 101 posts? A ...
by Shamb3
Thu Jan 31, 2019 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected Growth Next Decade?
Replies: 48
Views: 4045

Re: Expected Growth Next Decade?

I really have no idea. Anything can happen. Including not having a significant recession everyone is predicting. I am in accumulation so I put in a optimistic 9% (with inflation) for stocks. Then I use 3% for my inflation number. If I am wrong it just means I am not retiring yet. I think any fear ba...
by Shamb3
Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another market timing thread (Chart)
Replies: 38
Views: 3004

Re: Another market timing thread (Chart)

Haha... Pardon my lack of faith :) Now 2019....the chart looks crazily high...am I entering on market top? The end of the graph almost always looks like that unless we had a few bears recently. The market grows exponentially. The exponential nature makes all of the past look small and recent look h...
by Shamb3
Sun Jan 27, 2019 6:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What Percentage of Your Pre-Retirement Income are You Projecting You Will Need?
Replies: 108
Views: 7893

Re: What Percentage of Your Pre-Retirement Income are You Projecting You Will Need?

It depends on spending. I am investing heavily to get a earlier retirement though. Mine comes out to 60% for years I am paying a mortgage. 40% for years after the mortgage is paid off. I calculate my spending as Income minus pre tax investing minus taxes minus post tax investing minus mortgage payme...
by Shamb3
Sun Jan 27, 2019 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?
Replies: 114
Views: 8789

Re: What did you learn from 2018 in the markets?

I learned that I better go get that gold medallion signature to automate my taxable investing at vanguard. I had most of the taxable money I was planning to invest still in my bank account in December. I got excited and made my buy order through TD Ameritrade on the 22nd and got lucky it went throug...
by Shamb3
Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401K matching and front loading
Replies: 15
Views: 1307

Re: 401K matching and front loading

I think that is a question you have to ask your plan manager or find in your plan documents. My plan match is 90% match 10% of salary, but is done on a pay period basis. So I need to invest at least 10% of my paycehck each pay period to get the full match. If I hit the 401k contribution limit before...
by Shamb3
Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio
Replies: 265
Views: 29583

Re: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio

Somewhere between .08 and .1 My 401k fees are actually paid by my employer unless I request something by mail. We have Vangaurd Large cap at a lower expense ratio than admiral shares. And Vanguard Small / Mid cap at a really low expense ratio. My total retirement saving average is like 8-10 basis po...
by Shamb3
Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Experts Forecast Long-Term Stock and Bond Returns: 2019 Edition
Replies: 10
Views: 1192

Re: Experts Forecast Long-Term Stock and Bond Returns: 2019 Edition

I need better returns someday. The last 20 years turn out to like a nominal 5.5% annualized.
by Shamb3
Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BHers, what is your Roth IRA %?
Replies: 137
Views: 8567

Re: BHers, what is your Roth IRA %?

This is all hypothetical, I doubt it will work out perfectly and match my spread sheets. Leaving some in the traditional wouldn't hurt much because I don't have a pension either. Current total tax rate is about 25%. 30% taxable, 40% Traditional, 30% Roth. Age 53- 60 Spend down taxable. ( <10% in tax...
by Shamb3
Tue Sep 25, 2018 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any active forums/BBS grouping up non-Bogleheads?
Replies: 17
Views: 2055

Re: Is there any active forums/BBS grouping up non-Bogleheads?

The Boglehead mindset (low costs, LBYM, etc.) might be common in roughly 1% of investors. Basically everything else about investing on the internet is non-Bogleheads. Shouldn't be hard to find. Sadly most people barely understand compound interest gains on stocks. They wouldn't fear declines in the...
by Shamb3
Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Impact of early retirement on previously set glide path
Replies: 17
Views: 2480

Re: Impact of early retirement on previously set glide path

Making it to early retirement usually means investing much more per year than the retire at 65 plans. The schedule of what needs to happen when gets compressed. Going too heavy on bonds too soon could add years of work (are you still retiring early then?). You would also want to be at the same equi...
by Shamb3
Sun Sep 02, 2018 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Impact of early retirement on previously set glide path
Replies: 17
Views: 2480

Re: Impact of early retirement on previously set glide path

Making it to early retirement usually means investing much more per year than the retire at 65 plans. The schedule of what needs to happen when gets compressed. Going too heavy on bonds too soon could add years of work (are you still retiring early then?). You would also want to be at the same equit...
by Shamb3
Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: physics/math major looking for programmer/analyst job?
Replies: 111
Views: 10407

Re: physics/math major looking for programmer/analyst job?

Volunteer on open source projects and look for jobs at small companies.
The pay may not be good, but it will get him the experience.
by Shamb3
Mon Jul 16, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Getting antsy with indexing? Reporter doing story.
Replies: 12
Views: 3196

Re: Getting antsy with indexing? Reporter doing story.

So the "Reporter" has written a article or news piece that Indexers are Antsy and now needs people who fit that mold to interview.
A real journalist would interview or poll indexers and find out how they feel, then report on that. Not make the news and find people to fit the narrative.
by Shamb3
Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Waiting for a market drop?
Replies: 17
Views: 2573

Re: Waiting for a market drop?

It took me a while to learn about opportunity cost. It is very easy to miss out on gains greater in magnitude than the next drop.
Now my investment money is always invested in the market automatically as I earn it or as it lands in my bank account.

Every day is the right day.
by Shamb3
Sat Jun 23, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heavy in equities?
Replies: 46
Views: 5447

Re: Heavy in equities?

Just interested when did your parents retire. I think to many of us are way to positive with our investments because of this great run in the market. If I have 100% in stock funds (which I have thought of) what would I do if the market corrected for a few years and I wanted money to purchase a seco...
by Shamb3
Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heavy in equities?
Replies: 46
Views: 5447

Re: Heavy in equities?

What I find odd however is the position of many retired investors who both believe in the predictive power of old US data AND remain heavily invested in equities (60% or greater). I'm confused for 2 reasons: People have different situations, so their plan may not make sense to you if you are missin...
by Shamb3
Tue Jun 19, 2018 6:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you think it is smart to disclose that you have passive investments to other people?
Replies: 43
Views: 4855

Re: Do you think it is smart to disclose that you have passive investments to other people?

You say doing work for money like it is a bad thing.

Also it sounds like you are making yourself a target for frivolous law suits.
Flashing money is never a good idea.
by Shamb3
Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Dow Jones Industrial Average a useful metric?
Replies: 28
Views: 1955

Re: Is the Dow Jones Industrial Average a useful metric?

No and it is obnoxious that they quote intra-day trading value.

If they wanted to convey useful information S&P 500 is up down x% for the past week, month, year might be better.
by Shamb3
Sat May 19, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you including annual increases in contributions in your projections?
Replies: 36
Views: 2281

Re: Are you including annual increases in contributions in your projections?

As others have said, the decision is going to be based on a lot of details that are particular to you. For me.No I already invest through 401k / matching / taxable 40% of my gross income. I modeled everything in excel with spending and income adjusted for inflation. Increasing my contributions by in...
by Shamb3
Sat May 12, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 13186

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

The premise of being 80% stock / 20% bond at the date of retirement is a bad idea due to sequence of returns. I didn't hear anything about re-balancing or spending the bonds when the market is down etc. I assume the model just spent the same proportion from both assets. The title of the post is Par...
by Shamb3
Sat May 12, 2018 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 13186

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

Starting with more money / lower withdrawal rate by working 2 more years is good advice. The premise of being 80% stock / 20% bond at the date of retirement is a bad idea due to sequence of returns. I didn't hear anything about re-balancing or spending the bonds when the market is down etc. I assume...
by Shamb3
Tue May 08, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peer-to-peer lending as an investment?
Replies: 67
Views: 9367

Re: Peer-to-peer lending as an investment?

If someone needs to pay 8-11% interest to borrow money at a time I can borrow it for 4-5%... I don't have faith that I would get my money back.
by Shamb3
Tue May 08, 2018 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many Americans not own stocks?
Replies: 44
Views: 4306

Re: Why do so many Americans not own stocks?

They live beyond their means instead of below it.
Live in a part of the country that is too expensive for the income their skills demand.
Spent too much on a house.
Spent too much on cars.
Have kids even though they are scrapping by.

etc, etc, etc
by Shamb3
Sat May 05, 2018 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today's Vanguard Weirdness - Account Security
Replies: 1
Views: 641

Re: Today's Vanguard Weirdness - Account Security

E-mails I get from vanguard are all http: also.
Probably not a phishing attack, but i would never click on a link in a e-mail.
I use my bookmark to the site.

I got a weird message from them when they automatically did something to my account. There was a message about it in secure messages.
by Shamb3
Wed May 02, 2018 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffet Empire in One Giant Chart
Replies: 11
Views: 3626

Re: Warren Buffet Empire in One Giant Chart

z3r0c00l wrote:
Wed May 02, 2018 6:20 am
What would a powerful scientist even look like?
Edison. He has a lab, hires other scientists to work in his lab (Tesla)
by Shamb3
Tue May 01, 2018 9:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Have you quit eating sugar? Tell me how!
Replies: 129
Views: 14488

Re: Have you quit eating sugar? Tell me how!

Complete a round of the whole 30 diet. If you already cook 95% of your food it shouldn't be much more work.

Things that really help with cravings are
no-snacking. Just 3 big meals.
no artificial sweetener.
very limited fruit
by Shamb3
Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?
Replies: 158
Views: 14411

Re: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?

Picking the two worst dates is not representative. You don't need to pick the bottom of a bear to get about 7%, you just need to pick almost any other two points. Average returns are for long term investing anyways, not predicting medium or short term. I did not intentionally pick really bad dates....