Search found 82 matches

by Shamb3
Thu Feb 04, 2021 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We are NOT in a bubble
Replies: 156
Views: 19058

Re: We are NOT in a bubble

Beyond the entertainment aspect, knowing if we are in a bubble or not is important if you are considering switching jobs, making major purchases etc.
by Shamb3
Thu Dec 24, 2020 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of return risk for those nearing retirement
Replies: 115
Views: 9276

Re: Sequence of return risk for those nearing retirement

A very real and potentially big risk for the rising equity glidepath is that stocks do well with the stock allocation is low and that stocks do poorly when the stock allocation is high. Combine that with negative real returns from bonds during the first decade (i.e. where we are now), and retirees ...
by Shamb3
Wed Dec 23, 2020 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of return risk for those nearing retirement
Replies: 115
Views: 9276

Re: Sequence of return risk for those nearing retirement

Rising equity path may not the right solution for everyone. There are two ways to handle risk. 1) less volatile assets like bonds 2) A much larger account balance I much prefer #2. I don't like bonds and handle the ups and downs of stocks just fine. I am comfortable at 100% stocks when I am working ...
by Shamb3
Fri Dec 11, 2020 8:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is programming still a valuable skill to learn?
Replies: 250
Views: 20603

Re: Is programming still a valuable skill to learn?

Absolutely, but just getting a education is not always enough. It is critical to get those first two years of professional experience in a in demand language. After that you can find jobs a lot more easily. You are competing with a massive number of people from India for jobs that are physically in ...
by Shamb3
Mon Nov 30, 2020 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ERN: See that house over there? It’s an investment!
Replies: 124
Views: 8702

Re: ERN: See that house over there? It’s an investment!

See my house over here, it is freedom to do what I want. I can have a wood shop, build a pizza oven, roast coffee on my grill, remodel the bathroom etc... Must be nice... there are parts of the country where owning a property doesn't give you the "freedom" to do any of that, and if allowe...
by Shamb3
Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ERN: See that house over there? It’s an investment!
Replies: 124
Views: 8702

Re: ERN: See that house over there? It’s an investment!

See my house over here, it is freedom to do what I want. I can have a wood shop, build a pizza oven, roast coffee on my grill, remodel the bathroom etc. If I move, I am buying and selling in the same market. I don't see it as having a direct return on investment. On the plus side, the cost of my mor...
by Shamb3
Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My theory about FIRE
Replies: 419
Views: 32334

Re: My theory about FIRE

Nate7out wrote: Fri Apr 17, 2020 11:25 am
CyclingDuo wrote: Fri Apr 17, 2020 10:04 am
Image
My wife is a teacher in IL, she does not pay into or get SS. It must be different in different states.
I wish I had that option. Just let me invest my half and they can continue to manage the employer portion.
by Shamb3
Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of your paycheck do you invest?
Replies: 268
Views: 17228

Re: What percentage of your paycheck do you invest?

~35-40% of post tax are my contributions With 401k matching and retirement contributions that number gets closer to 45-50% I make just enough as a single person that I did not qualify for beer virus payouts. I manage it by keeping my expenses low. I do everything myself if I am able which makes me a...
by Shamb3
Thu Apr 16, 2020 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My theory about FIRE
Replies: 419
Views: 32334

Re: My theory about FIRE

How to know when to walk away from a high paying job? I was so pissed with my performance review and lost sleep over it. I felt compelled to turn in my resignation since I do have enough FI. But it's coronavirus time, so should I just lay low and hang on until things get better? For insurance and e...
by Shamb3
Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My theory about FIRE
Replies: 419
Views: 32334

Re: My theory about FIRE

I am trying to FIRE by 52-55. I enjoy being a software engineer BUT There are lots of things I would rather be doing than working for someone else. There are a whole pile of employment related issues that are not my job but could make life miserable. Age discrimination when I am older. Lose my job ...
by Shamb3
Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My theory about FIRE
Replies: 419
Views: 32334

Re: My theory about FIRE

I am trying to FIRE by 52-55. I enjoy being a software engineer BUT There are lots of things I would rather be doing than working for someone else. There are a whole pile of employment related issues that are not my job but could make life miserable. Age discrimination when I am older. Lose my job a...
by Shamb3
Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long after starting investing, did you start to be happy about the power of compounding?
Replies: 186
Views: 20616

Re: How long after starting investing, did you start to be happy about the power of compounding?

My contributions are still large, but only account for +5 to +7% now. What do you mean by "account for +5 to +7%" ? You mean to the total amount invested? Yes. Like in the OP I am saying the larger my portfolio the less my contributions move the needle. Ex If you have a portfolio of 350,0...
by Shamb3
Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long after starting investing, did you start to be happy about the power of compounding?
Replies: 186
Views: 20616

Re: How long after starting investing, did you start to be happy about the power of compounding?

Never, really. Because I invest/save 10x at 49 than I did at 29. I am ~40 and until recently I was only happy about the theoretical progress I was making in my excel sheets, just not reality. For me the details were like this though. Stage 1) Not making enough or market so volatile I couldn't see m...
by Shamb3
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why use percentage AA with significant assets?
Replies: 154
Views: 10423

Re: Why use percentage AA with significant assets?

Why do investors with significant assets continue to use percentage based asset allocation? Wouldn't you want to start measuring risk in dollar terms or have a minimum amount of fixed measured in years of expenses? That is kind of my plan for the day I hit retirement. Within the 5 years before I re...
by Shamb3
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
Replies: 366
Views: 33003

Re: How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?

I am down about whatever % VTSAX is down.
It is better at this point for me to focus on more immediate things like cleaning the house\garage and not going stir crazy.
Fortunately I am the man of 100 hobbies and half finished projects :D so plenty to do.
by Shamb3
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dad pulling retirements out of market. Advice Please!
Replies: 84
Views: 10641

Re: Dad pulling retirements out of market. Advice Please!

How long would just spending from the bond portion last him (assuming it stays relatively flat)? 16-20 years? Does he/you think the stock indexes will recover by then? Selling stocks now would cause long term injury to his portfolio. It would be a self inflicted sequence of returns disaster. IMO thi...
by Shamb3
Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)
Replies: 514
Views: 51259

Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Not buying more than planned unless the purchase price time travels to much farther in the past than last Dec. I already invest enough to meet my financial independence goal. Any cash I have right now took me a long time to accumulate due to my aggressive investment contributions :greedy Well what ...
by Shamb3
Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?
Replies: 185
Views: 10498

Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

I am glad that the mania is temporarily over. I will also be glad when the panic is over. I want a long slow slightly up or sideways market and a booming market when I retire. :D I don't think it will make much of a difference long term because I don't see it staying low lasting very long. I did fin...
by Shamb3
Fri Feb 28, 2020 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)
Replies: 514
Views: 51259

Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Not buying more than planned unless the purchase price time travels to much farther in the past than last Dec.
I already invest enough to meet my financial independence goal.

Any cash I have right now took me a long time to accumulate due to my aggressive investment contributions :greedy
by Shamb3
Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22047
Views: 2939094

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Can we just go sideways for a few months?
On one hand, cheaper stocks.
On the other hand, heartburn about my job.
by Shamb3
Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Market is acting like late August, 2000, or late October, 2007]
Replies: 82
Views: 7347

Re: It's starting to smell like

After I thought I smelled it (but did nothing) in 2011, 2013, 2015 and 2018...
I kind of decided my nose doesn't work.

It will happen someday. :beer
I wouldn't mind if it went sideways for a few years.
by Shamb3
Fri Jan 24, 2020 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?
Replies: 113
Views: 6036

Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

The market drops / recoveries didn't really change my accumulation philosophy at all. I already knew these things could happen so they were baked in the cake. They did change my attitude about the job markets though. The 2000-2001 drop made getting a job as a new software engineer impossible. I hunk...
by Shamb3
Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's new game - has anyone played it?
Replies: 21
Views: 4721

Re: Vanguard's new game - has anyone played it?

I hated the car question too -- just not enough information to make an informed decision. I am not even sure how it ties into the investing theme. My guess. Putting money into a car that will cost you more over time is a bad "investment" Money you don't waste is available to invest. What ...
by Shamb3
Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's new game - has anyone played it?
Replies: 21
Views: 4721

Re: Vanguard's new game - has anyone played it?

happysteward wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2020 9:44 pm I kept the old car and lost points, bummer
It seemed like a leading question, otherwise I might have kept it too.
"on the fritz", it's a technical term. :annoyed
by Shamb3
Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BH theory vs practice
Replies: 69
Views: 3773

Re: BH theory vs practice

IMO low fee investing in index funds is the #1 core piece of the theory. There are many approaches to determining risk / allocation. I have been and plan to remain 100% stocks until I think retirement date risk is too large. Every time I simulate owning bonds now it does not make sense. Currently an...
by Shamb3
Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How is your "number" defined?
Replies: 179
Views: 16015

Re: How is your "number" defined?

You either Calculate your number in today's dollars and then inflate your number until you have that amount. OR Inflate today's Spending until it matches your retirement balance. I figured out my probable age of retirement and what my number might be in a spread sheet. Age | Balance | Invested | Ret...
by Shamb3
Sat Nov 16, 2019 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 13113
Views: 1012538

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

J G Bankerton wrote: Sat Nov 16, 2019 10:25 am It is being predicted that if specific events come to pass the market will decline by 20 to 30% as fast as the circuit breakers will permit. :shock:
I predict if specific events occur, the stock market will drop 100%.

That event is extinction due to giant meteor
by Shamb3
Fri Nov 15, 2019 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Letting retirement funds grow, without further contribution
Replies: 40
Views: 3288

Re: Letting retirement funds grow, without further contribution

If you start spending that money, you are going to need a bigger nest egg to support the new level of spending. If you keep investing, you can either retire earlier or take more vacations and buy more toys in retirement I am 40, and i have done the theoretical math for myself. If I invest nothing fo...
by Shamb3
Sun Sep 22, 2019 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: American Funds Propaganda. Help me understand.
Replies: 45
Views: 6056

Re: American Funds Propaganda. Help me understand.

Start date is super important.

Put S&P 500 and Russel 2000 and a international index on the same graph. Move the start date around.
by Shamb3
Sat Jul 27, 2019 7:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The new 1 fund portfolio
Replies: 57
Views: 10795

Re: The new 1 fund portfolio

Obviously, no one knows what will perform better in the next 20-30 years. It could easily go either way especially in the short term. Figure out If you want the market in international or not. I personally like the US and a few specific countries a lot better than the total world market, but I have ...
by Shamb3
Sat Jul 13, 2019 5:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 13113
Views: 1012538

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

*SNIP* At the same time, this doesn't feel like prosperous times. You go to an average mom and pop restaurant and they have one server running all over the place trying to serve all customers. Airports are overcrowded. Planes are overcrowded. Hotels tend to be dirty yet charge astronomical rates. B...
by Shamb3
Tue Jul 09, 2019 9:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Drawing down Inherited IRA vs. Roth Conversions
Replies: 13
Views: 1151

Re: Drawing down Inherited IRA vs. Roth Conversions

I think your RMDs are based on the age of the person you inherited it from correct?
So the percentages you are required to withdraw from that inherited IRA will get larger and larger sooner.

So I would prioritize getting money out of that IRA before my personal one.
by Shamb3
Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good times: 2008 vs Now
Replies: 145
Views: 16642

Re: Good times: 2008 vs Now

***SNIP It is not clear to me if Klang is using his experience to argue that the recovery is not real, or if he's just saying he was personally unlucky. To me, it's the second case. ***SNIP A recession is when someone else looses their job, a depression is when you do. I think that can be very true...
by Shamb3
Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So the year is officially half over
Replies: 32
Views: 3731

Re: So the year is officially half over

2 changes that work together. My 401k contributions have shifted to be mostly pre tax. I am also leaving the 100% equities club earlier than planned. I am leaving slowly though as the fear of missing out on gains is strong with me :D I am 40 now and have aspirations to retire around 55. Original: Wa...
by Shamb3
Tue Apr 30, 2019 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 324
Views: 43774

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

People are razzle dazzled by the technology, visions of the future and promise of riches. Only problem is, you are not buying the technology, the tokens have no intrinsic value and it has less long term value than digital game items. The tokens have no intrinsic value (if you are referring to the d...
by Shamb3
Tue Apr 30, 2019 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 324
Views: 43774

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

People are razzle dazzled by the technology, visions of the future and promise of riches. Only problem is, you are not buying the technology, the tokens have no intrinsic value and it has less long term value than digital game items. The tokens have no intrinsic value (if you are referring to the d...
by Shamb3
Fri Apr 26, 2019 5:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 324
Views: 43774

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

I don't really get the vitriol here against BTC. People get mad about things they don't understand. No anger here. The issue is not if you understand bitcoin, it is if you understand where the value of money comes from. People are razzle dazzled by the technology, visions of the future and promise ...
by Shamb3
Wed Apr 24, 2019 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will MSCI ACWI ex US return in the 2020s ?
Replies: 3
Views: 505

Re: What will MSCI ACWI ex US return in the 2020s ?

I have my doubts, but anything can happen. I started adding some international in 2016 to add some diversity.

P/E is lower, but I think that is largely accounted for different expectations of growth.
More tech in the S&P 500, more financials in the MSCI ACWI ex USA.
by Shamb3
Tue Mar 26, 2019 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why take the risk with equities?
Replies: 122
Views: 9506

Re: Why take the risk with equities?

As a accumulator, because It would take me forever to reach my retirement number without them.

3-4% is the worst case low side of possibilities and failures are mostly due to bad early sequence of returns, which can be mitigated.
by Shamb3
Tue Mar 26, 2019 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When do you notice the compounding at work?
Replies: 137
Views: 30062

Re: When do you notice the compounding at work?

When all the money you invested during down or flat years grows like crazy.

When the growth in one year contributes more than you do.

When your new contributions don't seem to make much of a difference (nearing retirement / financial independence).
by Shamb3
Wed Mar 20, 2019 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is technical analysis all smoke and mirrors?
Replies: 88
Views: 10779

Re: Is technical analysis all smoke and mirrors?

rongos wrote: Tue Mar 19, 2019 1:26 pm Lots of cynicism about the market in this thread.

And yet we continue to pin all our retirement hopes on the stock market.

Because it works well, until it doesn't.
The stock market doesn't work until it does.
by Shamb3
Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 906
Views: 126162

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

I'm going to disagree. $1.5 million is more than twice the amount I plan on retiring with. It's an obscene amount of money. Even if it was stashed under my mattress earning 0%, I wouldn't blow through that much money in 50 years. Some people need more money to spend on junk or to support the junk t...
by Shamb3
Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does dividend investing not work?
Replies: 190
Views: 31700

Re: Why does dividend investing not work?

The only benefit I can think of to dividend stock is as a hedge against the markets emotion during withdrawal years.
Having fixed income portion of the portfolio does the same thing and is what most people do.
by Shamb3
Sat Feb 16, 2019 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing during decumulation phase
Replies: 61
Views: 5143

Re: rebalancing during decumulation phase

It probably isn't perfectly optimal, but my preference would be to
Live off of taxable and do tIRA to Roth conversions until taxable is gone.
Live off of tIRa and Roth making tIRA withdrawals to match a target tax rate until tIRA is gone.
Then do whatever, who cares.
by Shamb3
Fri Feb 15, 2019 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you get spooked by the December 2018 fall and gave up on passive?
Replies: 133
Views: 9652

Re: Did you get spooked by the December 2018 fall and gave up on passive?

I would be a liar if I said the market volatility did not make me nervous sometimes. I made no changes though, because the math still works out to say I shouldn't. I am more worried about losing my job because of things going on at my employer lining up at the wrong time with a recession. I think ev...
by Shamb3
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What kind of end balance makes you happy?
Replies: 27
Views: 2196

Re: What kind of end balance makes you happy?

just set the retirement time to 50-60 years.
then all the would succeed for 30 years, but fail if you lived longer scenarios come out as failures

a balance that wont fail if I lived forever (or 110) is what makes me happy.
by Shamb3
Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don’t Compare Your Investment Returns With Others (Especially On The Internet)"
Replies: 34
Views: 4072

Re: "Don’t Compare Your Investment Returns With Others (Especially On The Internet)"

When i was young I worked at a liquor counter that sold lotto tickets. Lots of people bragged about how much they won, but I know these people, they are in there every day spending $5-$20... They never seem to count what they spend, only that they won $120 that one time. That's what I think of whene...
by Shamb3
Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When to add safety?
Replies: 10
Views: 1157

Re: When to add safety?

"When to add safety?" I view a bond / cash position as insurance that I can retire on the date I want to retire. If I add bonds / cash too soon, that could push that date out due to lower return. If I add them too late it risks a bear market significantly delaying that retirement date. So ...
by Shamb3
Sun Feb 03, 2019 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What Percentage of Your Pre-Retirement Income are You Projecting You Will Need?
Replies: 108
Views: 8253

Re: What Percentage of Your Pre-Retirement Income are You Projecting You Will Need?

I find it hard to believe that this is given the time of day on this forum, full of intelligent people. Did you read the other responses? Most are telling the OP that the goal should be to cover your expected expenses, not to achieve a percent of pre-retirement income. Right but still 101 posts? A ...
by Shamb3
Thu Jan 31, 2019 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected Growth Next Decade?
Replies: 48
Views: 4163

Re: Expected Growth Next Decade?

I really have no idea. Anything can happen. Including not having a significant recession everyone is predicting. I am in accumulation so I put in a optimistic 9% (with inflation) for stocks. Then I use 3% for my inflation number. If I am wrong it just means I am not retiring yet. I think any fear ba...