Search found 194 matches

by stuper1
Sat Jan 18, 2020 3:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Setting up Your Retirement Paycheck?
Replies: 8
Views: 1040

Re: Setting up Your Retirement Paycheck?

I've been thinking about this a bit lately. Would it be too simplistic to simply pull from your bond index fund on say a monthly or quarterly basis, and then rebalance between your stock and bond funds on a yearly basis?
by stuper1
Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who’s Buying Bitcoin?
Replies: 307
Views: 16960

Re: Who’s Buying Bitcoin?

Safe deposit box at bank. I don't have a lot there yet, but hope to at some point. You can get a large value in gold into a small safe deposit box. You can also buy insurance on it if you want to at a reasonable price. Why physical? If you're into crypto, I would have that electronic gold would be ...
by stuper1
Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who’s Buying Bitcoin?
Replies: 307
Views: 16960

Re: Who’s Buying Bitcoin?

1. If the price gets to $30,000 each, I'm selling 1/2 of my stake, which would be $5,000 and buying gold coins with it (My AA calls for me to hold 15% gold in my portfolio , but I'm trying to get more physical gold and less in gold ETFs). Of course, that is a very big "if" on the bitcoin price. Tha...
by stuper1
Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who’s Buying Bitcoin?
Replies: 307
Views: 16960

Re: Who’s Buying Bitcoin?

... Of course, bitcoin may go to zero at any time, and I will be out $300 , which I would count as a good life lesson for me. I'm afraid you'd be out $8,800 / 3 = $2,933. That's the descent from today's value to zero for you. Unrealized gains are still gains, as are unrealized losses, losses. Even ...
by stuper1
Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who’s Buying Bitcoin?
Replies: 307
Views: 16960

Re: Who’s Buying Bitcoin?

I bought 1/3 of a bitcoin back in 2016 when the price was $900 each, so I've got $300 invested. I wouldn't buy anything at today's price of $8,800 each, because to me the chances are 50/50 that it goes up or down from here. Here's my IPS for my 1/3 bitcoin: 1. If the price gets to $30,000 each, I'm ...
by stuper1
Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Permanent Portfolio Harry Brown Question
Replies: 5
Views: 481

Re: Permanent Portfolio Harry Brown Question

The PP is a very robust portfolio. One of its strengths is that a person could get busy with life, not look at the portfolio for years, and come back to it and find that it is doing just fine. However, after some length of time (maybe greater than 5 years), it is very possible that the asset allocat...
by stuper1
Wed Jan 15, 2020 5:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: AAU basketball, college scholarships and career options/choices
Replies: 59
Views: 2477

Re: AAU basketball, college scholarships and career options/choices

Unless you can see that he is in the top 5 or 10% of players in his league, I would encourage you to try to feed his love for sports with a local league, if you have one, rather than a travel league. Most of the fun is in just being involved, not necessarily being involved at the highest levels. Tea...
by stuper1
Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to start?
Replies: 50
Views: 1892

Re: Where to start?

Very, very sorry for your loss and difficult relatives. I am going to give you some very specific advice, because if you were my wife, that's what I would want. You can take this advice now, and then start researching as long as you want, and make any changes you feel necessary in the future. Find o...
by stuper1
Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I Just Lucky and Taking Too much risk?
Replies: 34
Views: 4088

Re: Am I Just Lucky and Taking Too much risk?

Suggest you read through the portfoliocharts.com website. Maybe check out the Permanent Portfolio, which is discussed there, along with many other portfolio options. The PP has a very consistent record even during stock downturns. It does fall behind when stocks go on a multi-year tear, but it seems...
by stuper1
Sun Dec 29, 2019 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 529 College Savings Question
Replies: 6
Views: 566

Re: 529 College Savings Question

Can the original owner (grandparent) transfer ownership of the account to the original beneficiary (grandson)? In that case, the beneficiary would be the same as the owner. Is that allowed? And then can the new owner later change the beneficiary to be his child who was unborn when he became the new ...
by stuper1
Sun Dec 29, 2019 12:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 529 College Savings Question
Replies: 6
Views: 566

Re: 529 College Savings Question

What if the grandparents have died before the original beneficiary has kids? That may well be the case here.
by stuper1
Sun Dec 29, 2019 11:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 529 College Savings Question
Replies: 6
Views: 566

529 College Savings Question

I apologize if this topic has already been covered. I'm guessing it has, but when I searched I didn't find anything. Here is my question. My parents have a 529 account for my son, as do I. He will graduate from college next year and won't need any of the money from my parents' 529. They plan to leav...
by stuper1
Thu Oct 24, 2019 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?
Replies: 256
Views: 60229

Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

So based on this site the golden butterfly is a great portfolio allowing for a 40 year swr of 6.0% and a 5.5% pwr. Wow. Why would you need any other portfolio? How many people are using this portfolio? I am using it. I'm not counting on 5.5% per year, but I think it will do at least as well, if not...
by stuper1
Thu Oct 24, 2019 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?
Replies: 256
Views: 60229

Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

So based on this site the golden butterfly is a great portfolio allowing for a 40 year swr of 6.0% and a 5.5% pwr. Wow. Why would you need any other portfolio? How many people are using this portfolio? I am using it. I'm not counting on 5.5% per year, but I think it will do at least as well, if not...
by stuper1
Thu Oct 03, 2019 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Over Confident in Old-age: Cognitive Decline and Financial Literacy
Replies: 83
Views: 8457

Re: Over Confident in Old-age: Cognitive Decline and Financial Literacy

Part of my plan is that when I get close to 80 I plan to simplify things considerably by switching to one fund in each account (IRA, Roth IRA, and taxable). So maybe I'll have Wellesley in my IRA, Lifestrategy Moderate Growth in my Roth IRA, and Vanguard Balanced Tax Managed Balanced in taxable. Or ...
by stuper1
Thu Oct 03, 2019 4:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying and living in a multi family unit
Replies: 24
Views: 1333

Re: Buying and living in a multi family unit

Although I still feel you can't afford this by any stretch, no one has yet commented on the price in relation to the rental income. With gross rental income of $38,400 and a price of $550,000 you are talking a gross return of 7% before expenses. Clearly, the property is way overpriced and by the us...
by stuper1
Wed Oct 02, 2019 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car price ratio to NW
Replies: 140
Views: 10032

Re: Car price ratio to NW

A couple of rules found on the net; Dave Ramsey; no new car till 1 million be No more than 50% if income in things with motors These rules make no sense... It's OK to purchase 4 or 5 used cars, for $4K - $5K each, over the course of 15 years. But it is NOT OK to purchase 1 new car, for $20K, and dr...
by stuper1
Sat Sep 28, 2019 7:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ideas for truly determining risk tolerance and translate to portfolio allocations?
Replies: 10
Views: 810

Re: Ideas for truly determining risk tolerance and translate to portfolio allocations?

First off, make sure that you understand the long-term effects of inflation slowly eroding at your savings balance. This is why you take risk, because you want to beat inflation. Then, look back at the graph of your portfolio over time. You can use portfoliovisualizer.com for this to look back many ...
by stuper1
Fri Sep 27, 2019 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Permanent Portfolio without cash allocation?
Replies: 65
Views: 5213

Re: Permanent Portfolio without cash allocation?

Do you feel good about having all of your portfolio stored digitally? Can you understand that some people quite reasonably could be uncomfortable about that?
by stuper1
Wed Sep 25, 2019 12:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Simple emergency prep tip(s)
Replies: 32
Views: 2131

Re: Simple emergency prep tip(s)

What is in the go-bag? Genuinely curious.
by stuper1
Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Type of bond fund to hold for 90/10 AA
Replies: 35
Views: 1816

Re: Type of bond fund to hold for 90/10 AA

I think one day we will soon be able to look back and have a chuckle about the mania of the LTT. :sharebeer Expectations about future bond yields are already priced in. That's how the market works. Same for bonds as for stocks. It's anybody's guess which way we go from here. 50/50 up or down.
by stuper1
Thu Sep 19, 2019 3:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Type of bond fund to hold for 90/10 AA
Replies: 35
Views: 1816

Re: Type of bond fund to hold for 90/10 AA

If you want to play up the low/negative correlation between equities and long term treasuries, why not go with TMF at only a 10% allocation? 3x leveraged long duration treasuries. At only a 10% allocation, even EDV isn't volatile enough to make much impact on the portfolio which will still be drive...
by stuper1
Thu Sep 19, 2019 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Type of bond fund to hold for 90/10 AA
Replies: 35
Views: 1816

Re: Type of bond fund to hold for 90/10 AA

EDV is a non-diversified bond fund. If that's what you want (plus extremely long duration) it's fine. Total bond holds plenty of gov't paper and is more diversified. Total bond is diversified with corporate bonds. To me, it's much better to hold the corporate stuff as stocks, and hold the governmen...
by stuper1
Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Type of bond fund to hold for 90/10 AA
Replies: 35
Views: 1816

Re: Type of bond fund to hold for 90/10 AA

+1 for EDV. Try some backtesting of 90/10 with EDV versus 90/10 with other bond funds. I think you'll be impressed. Of course, backtesting doesn't mean everything and is no guarantee, but it can be useful. Don't listen to those who say that bond yields can only go up in the next decade. Look at wher...
by stuper1
Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Laptop for a student
Replies: 8
Views: 813

Re: Laptop for a student

My son is in his third year of college at a state school and has been fine with a $200 Chromebook. This may not work for all colleges or majors.
by stuper1
Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Facing very short gap without health insurance, options
Replies: 26
Views: 1406

Re: Facing very short gap without health insurance, options

Here's an oddball idea in case she can't get short-term full health insurance. Not sure how helpful this idea is. Does she drive and have car insurance? The most likely cause of a serious short-term health problem is a car accident. She may consider increasing her medical payments and uninsured moto...
by stuper1
Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is private wealth management worth it?
Replies: 47
Views: 6353

Re: Is private wealth management worth it?

Suggest you read through this thread for some ideas on DIY protection of wealth through thick and thin:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=290472
by stuper1
Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't confuse strategy with outcome:
Replies: 94
Views: 6431

Re: Don't confuse strategy with outcome:

I've often taken that concept to mean that life is probabilistic. I can choose the strategy that has what seems to me to be the highest probability of success, but that doesn't mean that one of the lower-probability outcomes won't happen instead of the outcome that I was hoping for with my strategy.
by stuper1
Mon Sep 16, 2019 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Novice question about diversifying with bonds
Replies: 5
Views: 678

Re: Novice question about diversifying with bonds

Many people say things like: stocks are for growth and bonds are for stability. Then, they invest in a total bond fund, which holds the total bond market which includes government issued bond (Treasury bonds) and corporate bonds. Those two things seem at odds to me. If bonds are for stability, then ...
by stuper1
Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Math is scary
Replies: 42
Views: 7046

Re: Math is scary

Are you saving at least 15% of your total income for retirement? If so, you're probably going to be okay. If you can get it up to 25% or more, you'll be even better.

There, that wasn't so scary was it? Actually ... for a lot of people that would be very scary.
by stuper1
Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Solar company took 3+ months from install to turn on - compensation?
Replies: 12
Views: 1353

Re: Solar company took 3+ months from install to turn on - compensation?

I'm no expert on this but I seem to recall that there's some way to send them a check which means that if they cash it, they have accepted it as a final payment in full. I would send them such a check along with a letter explaining why this final check is less than they are expecting. You could also...
by stuper1
Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The best portfolios when the going gets rough
Replies: 72
Views: 7306

Re: The best portfolios when the going gets rough

Perhaps I should have used the title "The best portfolios for the rough times, and not bad for the good times too." If we look at performance since 1978, the good old 60/40 portfolio grew at 10.1% per year, while the Golden Butterfly (40% stocks) grew at 10.0% per year, the Larry portfolio (30% sto...
by stuper1
Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Calling all iPhone SE Bogleheads
Replies: 61
Views: 5088

Re: Calling all iPhone SE Bogleheads

Mine works great. Don't want a big phone.
by stuper1
Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: downside of going to a competitive high school?
Replies: 49
Views: 3781

Re: downside of going to a competitive high school?

My son went to a very competitive high school ranked in top 100 in the nation. I don't think it was good for him. He's a smart guy but not a hard charger. I don't think being in that environment was the best for him. He certainly didn't seem very happy with it, although he got through and is doing f...
by stuper1
Wed Aug 21, 2019 6:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: JL Collins - You Did It Again :)
Replies: 10
Views: 2355

Re: JL Collins - You Did It Again :)

Here's my advice: 1. Get your emergency fund up to 8 months. 2. Invest your 401k and Roth money aggressively, say 80 to 100% stocks for now until you get to say 15 years before retirement. 3. Invest your other money a bit more conservatively, say 60 to 70% stocks, just in case you need some of that ...
by stuper1
Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: JL Collins - You Did It Again :)
Replies: 10
Views: 2355

Re: JL Collins - You Did It Again :)

If you are still in the accumulation stage (i.e., buying assets not selling to fund retirement), and the stock market goes down, then you should be jumping for joy. That means that you are buying stocks when they are on sale! If they go down 50%, then it's a half-off sale! And seriously you should b...
by stuper1
Tue Aug 20, 2019 12:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Life Advice: deciding what you want to do.
Replies: 49
Views: 4995

Re: Life Advice: deciding what you want to do.

Have you ever held a job for pay for at least 6 months? If not, just get any job and start working! Please read this perspective on following your passion: do the work first https://www.careercontessa.com/advice/why-passion-isnt-everything/ Where? The local grocery store, Target, Chipotle, whatever...
by stuper1
Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying an older used car - any new/different ideas?
Replies: 64
Views: 3699

Re: Buying an older used car - any new/different ideas?

Have you heard of the book "Lemon-Aid: New and Used Cars and Trucks"? I just learned of it recently and found a recent copy at my library. A new version is published each year, although someone said that this year will be the last. One car recommended in there is the Hyundai Elantra years 2008 to 20...
by stuper1
Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: when blood in the market...
Replies: 15
Views: 2330

Re: when blood in the market...

I know this has been discussed before, but I'm interested in over-rebalancing since I'm still more than 10 years away from retirement. My current allocation is 60/40. If the market drops say 30% from its all-time high, I may rebalance to 70/30. Is this foolish? Does the 30% threshold seem about righ...
by stuper1
Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth or TDF for my 17 year old son? Why?
Replies: 16
Views: 719

Re: Roth or TDF for my 17 year old son? Why?

Which would be better for a teenage boy to start saving for the future, a Roth IRA or a Target Date Fund? Both? Why? Feel free to post a question to help clarify :) Thanks Kevin You're mixing apples and oranges with your question. A Roth IRA is a type of account. Other types of accounts would be re...
by stuper1
Wed Jul 24, 2019 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why long-term bonds aren't awesome
Replies: 120
Views: 25088

Re: Explain why long-term bonds aren't awesome

Just because you bought the stock of company A and then bought a bond from company A doesn't mean that you have spread your money more broadly. A lot or maybe all of those corporate bonds are from the same companies that are represented in the stock index. For me, I like to hold all Treasury bonds o...
by stuper1
Wed Jul 24, 2019 2:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Question re WEP and GPO
Replies: 3
Views: 427

Social Security Question re WEP and GPO

My wife recently started a new job working for our city government. They have a pension plan, but they do not withhold Social Security taxes. My wife has enough Social Security credits from previous jobs to qualify for Social Security benefits. With this new job, she will be subject to the Windfall ...
by stuper1
Wed Jul 24, 2019 8:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Creative, "outside the box" to lower auto expenses?
Replies: 63
Views: 3977

Re: Creative, "outside the box" to lower auto expenses?

I live in a hot, sunny place with high electric rates (California), so to me installing solar panels on my house seemed very reasonable, especially with the tax credit available. Also, used electric vehicles are plentiful here due to government incentives. Currently, I am leasing an electric vehicle...
by stuper1
Sun Jul 21, 2019 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strength training is like investment
Replies: 46
Views: 3791

Re: Strength training is like investment

For personal investing, you want to be widely diversified in stocks and bonds, preferably using low-cost index funds. For personal training, you also should be diversified. You need strength training, but you also need cardio, core, stretching, and maybe balance exercises. I was a runner for a long ...
by stuper1
Fri Jul 19, 2019 4:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If you had $1M to invest what would you do?
Replies: 26
Views: 3238

Re: If you had $1M to invest what would you do?

If you are really stuck on the fence, I suggest 50/50: 50% stocks and 50% intermediate-term Treasury bonds.
by stuper1
Wed Jul 10, 2019 7:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Poorly Managed
Replies: 25
Views: 2334

Re: Poorly Managed

Try showing them one or more of the glowing articles recently written about Jack Bogle when he passed on, and tell them about the great company (Vanguard) that he founded, and that many respected economists, etc. say that Jack was the best thing that ever happened to retail investors.
by stuper1
Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pickleball Paddle recommendation?
Replies: 60
Views: 4187

Re: Pickleball Paddle recommendation?

Pickleball is a fabulous sport for all ages and skill levels. You can learn how to play in 10 minutes, but I know that I will never master it. I know people in their 20's who are very fit and athletic who love pickleball, and I know people in their 70's and 80's who are a lot slower, but they love i...
by stuper1
Sun Jun 23, 2019 10:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone own gold?
Replies: 108
Views: 12606

Re: Does anyone own gold?

There was a recent thread on the 18 or so portfolios listed on porfoliocharts.com. It is interesting to see that the three portfolios that had the highest perpetual withdrawal rate over about 20 years all had gold in them (Butterfly, Pinwheel, and permanent), even though their other holdings differ...
by stuper1
Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help with math
Replies: 34
Views: 2485

Re: Help with math

At these dollar amounts, what you need is a good tax and estate advisor. Somebody who will do a good job for you at a fair price. If you want to give us a general idea of where you live, maybe we can help you find someone. Or if you don't want to say where you live, maybe we can help you find someon...