Search found 238 matches

by TheoLeo
Tue Nov 24, 2020 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in an IPO
Replies: 16
Views: 920

Re: Investing in an IPO

FWIW, its not just any IPO, its Airbnb. So the chances of it being hyped insanely with lots of volatility within the first year after the IPO are pretty good I would say. So if you aren't too greedy, I think it is likely you can make a good profit selling it to someone else within a years time frame.
by TheoLeo
Tue Nov 24, 2020 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Palantir ever be profitable?
Replies: 42
Views: 4224

Re: Will Palantir ever be profitable?

Haha. If you don’t know about their business or think that their business consists of making bar graphs out of data, you haven’t done much research about the company. The oft repeated “but they haven’t made a profit in 17 years” is misleading. From 2003-2008 they were working almost exclusively for...
by TheoLeo
Mon Nov 23, 2020 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Palantir ever be profitable?
Replies: 42
Views: 4224

Re: Will Palantir ever be profitable?

Correction: up 95% in the last month. :sharebeer Like every ponzi scheme, this too can run out of fools that buy it with the hopes of selling it to a greater fool. We just don´t know when this will be. It is a reasonable trading strategy to try to ride the momentum of these hype stocks, but it is n...
by TheoLeo
Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Silliest Investment Mistakes?
Replies: 109
Views: 7241

Re: Silliest Investment Mistakes?

Over a decade ago, the CGM Focus Fund was featured on the cover of Forbes (or maybe Fortune). It had been on a real “hot” streak. So, lacking a real investment strategy, I put about 10% of my assets into the fund. The Fund promptly lost 50% of its value within 4 months. :oops: I sold the Fund and s...
by TheoLeo
Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio don't own bonds/cash
Replies: 86
Views: 7692

Re: Ray Dalio don't own bonds/cash

I made money thanks to Ray Dalio. In Jan 2020, Ray Dalio said on CNBC that cash is trash. So I did the opposite. I converted my speculative account (separate from bulk of savings) from stocks to 100% cash. Then in March and April 2020, I bought VTSAX. YTD +27%. Thanks Ray Dalio :sharebeer If you wa...
by TheoLeo
Mon Nov 23, 2020 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment in Atlis EV: crowdsourcing
Replies: 4
Views: 348

Re: Investment in Atlis EV: crowdsourcing

I wouldn´t touch it with your ten foot pole. EVs are what blockchain was in the end of 2017 and beginning of 2018. Any company that mentiones that they are working on anything related to EVs gets money thrown at it. And even if VCs were backing this company, it wouldn´t be any better. VCs often make...
by TheoLeo
Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now
Replies: 151
Views: 18243

Re: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now

Nothing that anyone has said has led me to believe that the risk of stocks is any lower than it ever has been. And nothing I know about myself, my wife, or the state of the world has led me to believe that our risk tolerance has increased . If anything, it has probably decreased. How about yours? S...
by TheoLeo
Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now
Replies: 151
Views: 18243

Re: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now

Nothing that anyone has said has led me to believe that the risk of stocks is any lower than it ever has been. And nothing I know about myself, my wife, or the state of the world has led me to believe that our risk tolerance has increased . If anything, it has probably decreased. How about yours? S...
by TheoLeo
Sat Nov 21, 2020 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a gap between growth and value?
Replies: 2
Views: 298

Is there a gap between growth and value?

People like to tilt toward growth (tech) and value (energy and financials). Is there an exploitable gap between? I am thinking of established consumer staple companies that don´t grow but deliver consistent revenue with a P/E ratio between 20 and 25. Or are these companies usually covered by both gr...
by TheoLeo
Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio don't own bonds/cash
Replies: 86
Views: 7692

Re: Ray Dalio don't own bonds/cash

With fixed income providing negative yields I think it is appropriate to look for alternatives. My alternative is to hoard less savings over my lifetime and instead focus on setting my life up in a way that allows me to generate some income from being productive myself when I am older.
by TheoLeo
Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Tesla added to S&P 500 index]
Replies: 238
Views: 22743

Re: [Tesla added to S&P 500 index]

Sold my S&P500 fund today and won´t buy any US index until February 2021 or until the Tesla stock price goes down again, whichever happens first. I know this doesn´t have a meaningfull impact on my portfolio, but I do this out of principle. Don´t want to be gamed like this. Do you not have acce...
by TheoLeo
Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Tesla added to S&P 500 index]
Replies: 238
Views: 22743

Re: [Tesla added to S&P 500 index]

Sold my S&P500 fund today and won´t buy any US index until February 2021 or until the Tesla stock price goes down again, whichever happens first. I know this doesn´t have a meaningfull impact on my portfolio, but I do this out of principle. Don´t want to be gamed like this.
by TheoLeo
Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value is Dead, Long Live Value
Replies: 15
Views: 1651

Re: Value is Dead, Long Live Value

This week's Economist has a better good article, Value investing is struggling to remain relevant . The thrust of the article is that the traditionally tools Benjamin Graham and value investors are breaking down. Earnings and intrinsic value are important. Traditionally, when companies reinvested e...
by TheoLeo
Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 236
Views: 22712

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

Transport Autonomy and Machine Learning training. This is to Tesla, what AWS is to Amazon. People focus on Tesla's automotive business because it is tangible. What is less known is that Tesla has made substantial progress in its Full Self Driving (FSD) software, which went to Beta release last mont...
by TheoLeo
Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Tesla added to S&P 500 index]
Replies: 238
Views: 22743

Re: [Tesla added to S&P 500 index]

When exactly will they add Tesla to the index? December 21 st? And do funds have to wait until then before they start buying? Interesting snippet from a bloomberg article: " The index funds have the advantage of free-riding, but the disadvantage of being predictable. Stocks should go up when t...
by TheoLeo
Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Tesla added to S&P 500 index]
Replies: 238
Views: 22743

Re: [Tesla added to S&P 500 index]

When exactly will they add Tesla to the index? December 21 st? And do funds have to wait until then before they start buying? Interesting snippet from a bloomberg article: " The index funds have the advantage of free-riding, but the disadvantage of being predictable. Stocks should go up when th...
by TheoLeo
Mon Nov 16, 2020 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1289
Views: 122183

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

I know, Theo. It wouldn't be Bogleheads if everyone thought timing the market was a great idea. I very easily can be wrong. The fed and congress are powering this rally with trillions in stimulus, and my contention is that stimulus doesn't work forever. We could see a mega-stimulus that sends stock...
by TheoLeo
Mon Nov 16, 2020 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which are the undervalued ex-US stocks?
Replies: 12
Views: 1077

Re: Which are the undervalued ex-US stocks?

Taken in the aggregate the stocks in the international indexes look undervalued because those indexes have considerable holdings in financials, insurers, oil companies and extractive industries like miners. Financials usually have lower P/Es than other kinds of companies. Oil is under pressure for ...
by TheoLeo
Mon Nov 16, 2020 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which are the undervalued ex-US stocks?
Replies: 12
Views: 1077

Which are the undervalued ex-US stocks?

I often read that ex-US markets have more attractive "valuations". Now, what does that even mean? Ex-US markets do have a lower PE ratio but if they also have a lower expected earnings growth rate, then they don´t necessarily have more attractive valuations despite having lower PEs. Saying...
by TheoLeo
Mon Nov 16, 2020 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1289
Views: 122183

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

I did and didn't fare so well, this year. I sold to 0% equity in December and then avoided the COVID drop. I invested incrementally as it dropped and got it all back in by somewhere in the 2300s, which is all documented here. I then rode it up to 2800-2900 and pulled back again to 20% invested. Eve...
by TheoLeo
Sun Nov 15, 2020 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those concerned about International Stocks...
Replies: 227
Views: 22761

Re: For those concerned about International Stocks...

If one just likes US culture and companies more due to familiarity or for patriotic reasons, I would come clean about it. International investors tend to be more cosmopolitan in outlook and domestic investors tend to be biased towards their own country for non-financial reasons. Well, I am "in...
by TheoLeo
Sun Nov 15, 2020 5:20 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: European stock index that screens for profitability like the S&P500?
Replies: 2
Views: 773

European stock index that screens for profitability like the S&P500?

To bei included in the S&P 500, companies have to demonstrate 4 consecutive quarters of positive earnings. Is there an index for european stocks that has the same eligibility criteria?
by TheoLeo
Sat Nov 14, 2020 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hostile Takeover of ARK Investment Management?
Replies: 82
Views: 8009

Re: Hostile Takeover of ARK Investment Management?

If you believe in the companies your ETF is invested in, then I don´t see the risk. Worst case, which I don´t think is likely, Cathy Wood takes her team some place else, everyone wants to sell the ETFs and nobody wants to buy. In this case, a market maker would buy your ETF and redeem it in return f...
by TheoLeo
Sat Nov 14, 2020 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Palantir ever be profitable?
Replies: 42
Views: 4224

Re: Will Palantir ever be profitable?

Let's do an incredibly crude analysis of Palantir without any understanding of how the company's business actually works. We're going to estimate when Palantir will start generating a positive operating income. Let's ignore net income and focus on the simpler task of putting together a basic model ...
by TheoLeo
Fri Nov 13, 2020 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Palantir ever be profitable?
Replies: 42
Views: 4224

Re: Will Palantir ever be profitable?

Although I think you're being a little glib, there's a lot of truth in this. It's possible we're in a tech bubble, but there have been a lot of examples of tech companies that were thought to be bubbles and ended up growing gracefully into their valuation. Unlike most traditional companies that are...
by TheoLeo
Fri Nov 13, 2020 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Palantir ever be profitable?
Replies: 42
Views: 4224

Re: Will Palantir ever be profitable?

I don't know if we are in a bubble yet, but if you look at the P/E ratios for VUG (Vanguard growth ETF) is 34 and VTV (Vanguard value ETF) it's 17. One part of the market is either very expensive, or another part is very cheap. 🤔 My hunch would be that both parts are historically expensive if you c...
by TheoLeo
Fri Nov 13, 2020 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Palantir ever be profitable?
Replies: 42
Views: 4224

Re: Will Palantir ever be profitable?

Probably not on GAAP basis since their stock based comp is so high. But the company’s financials look good and continue to improve with scale. If I read it correctly, they cover 85 % of their operating expenses with stock based compensation. They either have to start borrowing soon or dilute the sh...
by TheoLeo
Fri Nov 13, 2020 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Palantir ever be profitable?
Replies: 42
Views: 4224

Re: Will Palantir ever be profitable?

Splunk's business is largely focused on aggregation of structured and semi-structured data for analytics purposes, where the analytics are driven by people, either in real time or via automated reporting. I think Palantir is more focused on automating the analytics, like automatically connecting do...
by TheoLeo
Fri Nov 13, 2020 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Palantir ever be profitable?
Replies: 42
Views: 4224

Re: Will Palantir ever be profitable?

KyleAAA wrote: Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:23 pm Amazon didn't earn a profit for longer than that and it turned out fine.
Thanks for your reply. If Palantir starts offering competitive cloud-computing, I see a path to profitability :D If Amazon only did online retail, they might still be in the red...
by TheoLeo
Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Palantir ever be profitable?
Replies: 42
Views: 4224

Will Palantir ever be profitable?

I know this is Bogleheads and not Wall Street Bets. But I feel like this topic relates to index investors as well, as we hold these unprofitable businesses in our portfolios and it is helpfull to sometimes look under the hood of an index to see what we are acually buying. So I was reading up on Pala...
by TheoLeo
Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those concerned about International Stocks...
Replies: 227
Views: 22761

Re: For those concerned about International Stocks...

If one just likes US culture and companies more due to familiarity or for patriotic reasons, I would come clean about it. International investors tend to be more cosmopolitan in outlook and domestic investors tend to be biased towards their own country for non-financial reasons. Well, I am "in...
by TheoLeo
Fri Nov 13, 2020 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those concerned about International Stocks...
Replies: 227
Views: 22761

Re: For those concerned about International Stocks...

You might be familiar with the state of institutions, economic intricacies, the degree of freedom and quality of the press, ownership rights, consideration of social and environmental issues, the quality of financial analysts etc. in Taiwan, South Korea or Japan. I am really not. To a big part beca...
by TheoLeo
Thu Nov 12, 2020 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How on earth can overweighting US stock over international stock possibly be considered Boglehead?
Replies: 253
Views: 15802

Re: How on earth can overweighting US stock over international stock possibly be considered Boglehead?

Because it’s not based on past performance but the fact that the US currently enjoys intrinsic and significant economic advantages over most of the world. Past performance is evidence of US advantages. So you are saying that US stocks are constantly undervalued? If the US market is constantly growi...
by TheoLeo
Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there ever a time when markets are simply too expensive?
Replies: 49
Views: 4079

Re: Is there ever a time when markets are simply too expensive?

This is why I take comfort in being world cap, despite international's terrible recent returns.. it brings the PE of my overall portfolio way down :sharebeer Do you also have a good estimate of the future earnings growth rate of your international holdings? Because, in my opinion, the P/E ratio is ...
by TheoLeo
Thu Nov 12, 2020 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there ever a time when markets are simply too expensive?
Replies: 49
Views: 4079

Re: Is there ever a time when markets are simply too expensive?

When E/P plus the conservatively expected earnings growth is smaller than the yield on high grade 5-10 year bonds, I will sell my stocks. Until then, especially with central banks backstopping recessions, every drop is an opportunity to buy.
by TheoLeo
Thu Nov 12, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those concerned about International Stocks...
Replies: 227
Views: 22761

Re: For those concerned about International Stocks...

I'd hate to be in an investment world where I did not own Taiwan Semiconductor - TSMC - as far as I know, the largest chip business in the world (Intel might be bigger). You get so many household names in Japan too -- Matsushita, Toyota etc. South Korea you get the likes of Hyundai and Samsung. You...
by TheoLeo
Thu Nov 12, 2020 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those concerned about International Stocks...
Replies: 227
Views: 22761

Re: For those concerned about International Stocks...

I am exchanging out of VXUS (Total Intl. Stock Market Index ETF) into VEA (Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF). I kind of did the same. Wanted to get my money out of China and other countries I have no clue about. So now I only hold the S&P 500 and STOXX 600 for europe. Would hold Australia an...
by TheoLeo
Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are central banks the outsourced bond portion of our portfolios?
Replies: 3
Views: 326

Are central banks the outsourced bond portion of our portfolios?

There have been several threads discussing the use of bonds in a time when any liquidity crisis is backstopped by central banks which thereby eliminates the possibility of a long recession or even depression. So if central banks are in the way of severe and long down turns in equity markets, this do...
by TheoLeo
Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:33 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Three Fund Portfolio in Germany (Trade Republic)
Replies: 11
Views: 1704

Re: Three Fund Portfolio in Germany (Trade Republic)

Hello, I am a non US citizen currently living in Germany and looking to build up a three fund portfolio using Trade Republic. Trade Republic is a German company with a similar business model to Robin Hood. They have a limited ETF selection (compared to US brokers) most of which are from Blackrock a...
by TheoLeo
Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The blessings of indexing
Replies: 2
Views: 560

The blessings of indexing

Up until this morning I was 95 % in a total world index fund and 5 % in Alibaba. This single stock position just rubbed me the wrong way and made me always question what I should do with it. So today I sold and put it into the index fund, about 10 minutes before the news broke that the Ant IPO is ca...
by TheoLeo
Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How on earth can overweighting US stock over international stock possibly be considered Boglehead?
Replies: 253
Views: 15802

Re: How on earth can overweighting US stock over international stock possibly be considered Boglehead?

If one is a US consumer who spends US dollars then international adds an additional risk of FOREX without any additional return prospect so whats the point? The S&P gets around 40-50% of sales overseas anyway. Counting US stocks as 100% domestic is improper accounting, they are only 60% domesti...
by TheoLeo
Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seriously, what is going on with international?
Replies: 277
Views: 25840

Re: Seriously, what is going on with international?

:greedy I am done with internationals. I have started selling my ex-US equities and aim to reach 0% by year end. 10 years is a long time for the underperformance and I don't want to continue and see my portfolio drag with it. Sure, next year international might start to outperform US, but I'm willi...
by TheoLeo
Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seriously, what is going on with international?
Replies: 277
Views: 25840

Re: Seriously, what is going on with international?

European markets are recovering big time despite lockdowns... What are you looking at? I'm not seeing it. Dax, Cac 40, FTSE 100 or simply Stoxx 600 on Google Finance. Maybe it is a bit myopic to say they are recovering. But so far they are up more than 1 % despite everyone expecting a massive sell ...
by TheoLeo
Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seriously, what is going on with international?
Replies: 277
Views: 25840

Re: Seriously, what is going on with international?

European markets are recovering big time despite lockdowns...
by TheoLeo
Sun Nov 01, 2020 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Central banks impact on market efficiency
Replies: 7
Views: 373

Re: Central banks impact on market efficiency

... Illegal should be the step of buying stocks. Whats to stop them from buying all real estate in your neighbourhood preventing you from finding affordable housing? ... emphasis added : https://www.snb.ch/en/iabout/snb/id/snb_tasks The Swiss National Bank (SNB) conducts the country's monetary poli...
by TheoLeo
Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Central banks impact on market efficiency
Replies: 7
Views: 373

Re: Central banks impact on market efficiency

The swiss national bank has accumulated a real nice portfolio of US tech stocks, bought with money they simply create out of thin air. All in the name of price stability in Switzerland. How is this not distorting the market massively? Also, why is this legal? What about it do you think should be il...
by TheoLeo
Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Central banks impact on market efficiency
Replies: 7
Views: 373

Central banks impact on market efficiency

The swiss national bank has accumulated a real nice portfolio of US tech stocks, bought with money they simply create out of thin air. All in the name of price stability in Switzerland. How is this not distorting the market massively? Also, why is this legal? "How big a player is the SNB in the...
by TheoLeo
Fri Oct 30, 2020 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where is the money going
Replies: 17
Views: 3393

Re: Where is the money going

Maybe all the investable money is invested and there isnt enough printing going on.
by TheoLeo
Fri Oct 30, 2020 4:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20723
Views: 2832253

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Got a little lump sum this week and put it all in this morning. Didn´t feel so great to be honest, but who knows where the market is next week...