Search found 169 matches

by permport
Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best of Bogleheads - your #1 takeaway
Replies: 151
Views: 14155

Re: Best of Bogleheads - your #1 takeaway

Being a truly good Boglehead means doing the one thing that few are willing to do... leave this forum and don't think about your investments.

Don't do anything that will stimulate activity. We all know that CNBC does that, but reading this forum does that to many too. :twisted:
by permport
Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do dividends still exist?
Replies: 204
Views: 11798

Re: Why do dividends still exist?

Companies are only valuable because of dividend payments -- either current or eventual. This shouldn't be confused with the fact that dividends are not a factor. Totally separate things. The dividend discount model, in principle, allows you to ascertain return stream and proper valuation. This doesn...
by permport
Sat Aug 17, 2019 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 74
Views: 13535

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

Another take, via Ray Dalio, why U.S. centric investors perhaps should reconsider their stance.

Image
by permport
Wed Aug 14, 2019 12:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you "lock" computers in your home?
Replies: 77
Views: 5335

Re: Do you "lock" computers in your home?

I lock my computers, yes. However, it's mostly so that nobody can see what I'm doing or mess with important documents.
by permport
Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio bullish on China (China market cap to overtake US in 2030?)
Replies: 47
Views: 3781

Re: Ray Dalio bullish on China (China market cap to overtake US in 2030?)

No, this will never happen because international will always perform poorly compared with U.S.

...

...

...

:wink:
by permport
Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone been to a Kevin O'Leary event???
Replies: 22
Views: 3295

Re: Anyone been to a Kevin O'Leary event???

He came around to the Vancouver area a while back. Yes: complete and total waste of time. Other firms are basically piggybacking off his celebrity status to sell investment programs and products. What's even worse is that many of these programs (such as an options trading one that I saw) are the com...
by permport
Sat Aug 10, 2019 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do dividends still exist?
Replies: 204
Views: 11798

Re: Why do dividends still exist?

Buybacks don't necessarily have the same wealth impact that dividends do.

Ignoring taxes, dividends are wealth neutral.

Buybacks, if done at too high a price, actually decrease the wealth of remaining shareholders. Their impact on shareholder value is very sensitive on the purchase price.
by permport
Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Examples, as old as possible, of specific portfolios Jim Cramer said were "diversified?"
Replies: 4
Views: 538

Re: Examples, as old as possible, of specific portfolios Jim Cramer said were "diversified?"

Jim Cramer advocates that investors personally choose portfolios of small numbers of individual stocks, but choose them so that the portfolio is "diversified." In his book, Getting Back to Even , he wrote: How many stocks does it take to be truly diversified? I have found that it takes a minimum of...
by permport
Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"
Replies: 247
Views: 18126

Re: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"

Sometimes I get deep into the rabbit hole of factors, dividends, tilts and no tilts. It makes for such compelling discussion. It's all very fascinating and actually quite engaging. ...then I have a Larimore moment and say: "You know what? F*!@ it. I'm gonna buy the whole market and just move on with...
by permport
Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"
Replies: 247
Views: 18126

Re: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"

Yup, Bogle was surprisingly pro dividend in his writings for a guy who espoused the total market index.

https://youtu.be/YwV5QzmJOzc

"Dividends matter" -- his phrase, is to almost utter heresy in a today's intellectual investment climate.
by permport
Mon Jul 29, 2019 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not aim for a HIGH YIELDING portfolio?
Replies: 60
Views: 4939

Re: Why not aim for a HIGH YIELDING portfolio?

It's not bold. :| It's mainstream economic theory. It was in the CFA curriculum when I studied it. It was in my finance classes in college. :confused I mean, here's literally the first Google result: "The declaration of a dividend naturally encourages investors to purchase stock. Because investors ...
by permport
Sat Jul 20, 2019 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gold?
Replies: 137
Views: 7594

Re: Gold?

The problem with that Buffett article is that, in my opinion, Buffett's logic is fatally flawed. He's committing the logical fallacy of the false dichotomy. He's presenting two choices as mutually exclusive when they are not mutually exclusive: "Would you rather have Pile A or Pile B?" Obviously, if...
by permport
Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gold?
Replies: 137
Views: 7594

Re: Gold?

As an accumulator for several more decades, I have a harder time owning bonds than gold. The things bonds protect my portfolio from are behavioral and emotional in nature. The things gold protects my portfolio from are structural. Real tail risk stuff. Not that I hold a lot, but I see a genuine rol...
by permport
Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gold?
Replies: 137
Views: 7594

Re: Gold?

Listen to the man. Put 10% of your portfolio in gold.
by permport
Wed Jul 03, 2019 6:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gold & Silver in a portfolio
Replies: 61
Views: 2996

Re: Gold & Silver in a portfolio

Buy jewelry instead. :wink: I know you're saying this in jest, but it's actually a very reasonable approach for a modicum of gold holdings. https://mene.com/ Mene is an interesting company that sells pure gold jewelry (so called investment grade jewelry) at a going rate that is 20% over the spot pr...
by permport
Sat Jun 22, 2019 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?
Replies: 44
Views: 4683

Re: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?

If someone really wanted to use the Robbins version, I'd at least strongly consider VT instead for the stocks. I don't recall if Ray in the book specifically said US stocks though, but I'd deviate regardless. He does say U.S. stocks in the book, but I'd agree that VT is the better choice even in pr...
by permport
Fri Jun 21, 2019 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?
Replies: 44
Views: 4683

Re: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?

A tilt towards commodities and gold steers the OP away from diversification? :confused :confused :confused The opposite is true. A hypothetical $1M portfolio with 7.5% gold and 7.5% commodities. This puts $75K in a single commodity: gold Another $75 goes into another commodity or sector: perhaps en...
by permport
Fri Jun 21, 2019 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?
Replies: 44
Views: 4683

Re: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?

A tilt towards commodities and gold steers the OP away from diversification? :confused :confused :confused

The opposite is true.
by permport
Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?
Replies: 44
Views: 4683

Re: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?

I do think what throws a lot of people off is they see a high percentage of bonds, and then presume it's biased to dropping rates. The real reason there's more bonds than other asset classes is because they're less volatile than the other asset classes, so you need more to create true parity. If th...
by permport
Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?
Replies: 44
Views: 4683

Re: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?

It's going to do fine.

Anyone who thinks that low interest rates doom long term bonds needs to study up on bond pricing and bond convexity instead of parroting a general sentiment.
by permport
Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Am I a Boglehead?
Replies: 31
Views: 2758

Re: Am I a Boglehead?

Unfortunately, Bogle himself was the only one that could knight Bogleheads. He used to do it once a year for new members being accepted in a ceremony on the Vanguard campus. However, since he's not around anymore, no more new Bogleheads (officially). :)
by permport
Sun May 26, 2019 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 248
Views: 27363

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

Thanks all for the replies! For ETFs: GLDM and IAU both look good from a expense ratio perspective. But what about the asset location part for gold? It seems Roth accounts would be the best bet for ETFs, given the possible large increase in price and the collectibles tax rate applied on gold . Shou...
by permport
Sun May 26, 2019 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 248
Views: 27363

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

OK, let's say that one were convinced by plausible arguments and backtesting, of the merits of adding a 5% allocation of gold to one's 3 fund portfolio. The idea being that, even in case of a non-catastrophe, having a small percentage could serve as a good diversifier in periods of high-inflation e...
by permport
Fri May 24, 2019 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The hidden risk of ETFs
Replies: 9
Views: 1345

Re: The hidden risk of ETFs

Also, a relevant paper from Blackrock. :happy

https://www.ishares.com/us/literature/b ... -en-us.pdf
by permport
Fri May 24, 2019 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The hidden risk of ETFs
Replies: 9
Views: 1345

Re: The hidden risk of ETFs

Securities lending occurs with traditional mutual funds and index funds too, so there's no special risk inherent with ETFs. The securities lent are collateralized with cash and cash equivalents, so the fund can simply repurchase the securities if a default happens. Although borrower defaults have ha...
by permport
Mon May 20, 2019 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: canadian-couch-potato-investment-blog
Replies: 1
Views: 258

Re: canadian-couch-potato-investment-blog

That's a good way of seeing it I think. It's a great platform, and the podcast is especially informative. Even Larry Swedroe was on the show once.
by permport
Sun May 19, 2019 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 248
Views: 27363

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

I personally echo dbr's sentiment on this one. What's the point of 5%? It's not enough to make a difference even if somehow the circumstances align exactly like the 70s so that stocks and bonds tank and gold skyrockets. If you're not going to do at least 10% of the asset, you probably might as well ...
by permport
Wed May 15, 2019 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10,000% inflation in USA?
Replies: 19
Views: 1591

Re: 10,000% inflation in USA?

Most people in this forum don't believe it will or even can happen. That's reflected in the portfolio allocations that are typically recommended. 1) There's a strong belief that U.S. Treasury securities have unquestioned quality and robustness. 2) There's a strong belief that it's fine to be 100% in...
by permport
Wed May 08, 2019 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Exposure — A Fresh Look at Your Stock Portfolio
Replies: 104
Views: 7347

Re: International Exposure — A Fresh Look at Your Stock Portfolio

I suspect market cap exposure will still be king at the end of the day, even if revenue exposure is revealed to be a determinant factor in diversification in some way. I agree that market-cap weighted indexes will rule the day for a long time to come, due to their lower turnover and trading costs. ...
by permport
Wed May 08, 2019 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Exposure — A Fresh Look at Your Stock Portfolio
Replies: 104
Views: 7347

Re: International Exposure — A Fresh Look at Your Stock Portfolio

I suspect market cap exposure will still be king at the end of the day, even if revenue exposure is revealed to be a determinant factor in diversification in some way. If revenue exposure becomes vogue, that will be reflected in market prices sooner or later. The market cap weighted index will still...
by permport
Wed May 08, 2019 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Exposure — A Fresh Look at Your Stock Portfolio
Replies: 104
Views: 7347

Re: International Exposure — A Fresh Look at Your Stock Portfolio

Indeed, I really don't understand why this is even a debate anymore. It's obvious that holding the total universe of available stocks is better than just one country. Holding only U.S. under the justification that it has outperformed recently is the same thing as only holding a specific industry sec...
by permport
Wed May 01, 2019 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Believe 10 Years Return Data Is Just Noise?
Replies: 57
Views: 3768

Re: Do You Believe 10 Years Return Data Is Just Noise?

I agree that 10 years of return data is noise to the extent that it isn't enough to be indicative of what will happen over a lifetime of investing. However, somewhat ironically, I think 10 years is a long enough time period in the future for forecasting purposes. Bogle himself has done this, in that...
by permport
Tue Apr 30, 2019 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 324
Views: 41242

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

One of the keys facets of the scientific enterprise is recognizing how difficult it is to establish that something is true. It requires a level of rigour that many aren't accustomed to applying. What troubles many is that there is no method for absolutely proving anything with total confidence. "St...
by permport
Tue Apr 30, 2019 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 324
Views: 41242

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

One of the keys facets of the scientific enterprise is recognizing how difficult it is to establish that something is true. It requires a level of rigour that many aren't accustomed to applying. Just about everything in this thread is pure speculation, which is perfectly fine. However, we need to st...
by permport
Mon Apr 29, 2019 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Back testing assets: best results with long term treasury yet common advice is aggregated bonds or global bonds. Why?
Replies: 41
Views: 2232

Re: Back testing assets: best results with long term treasury yet common advice is aggregated bonds or global bonds. Why

I personally think everyone should have global bond exposure. Domestic aggregate and Treasury only allocations are fine under the assumption that things will be "business as usual" during your investment lifetime. However, there's no guarantee of that. And that's not reflected in the backtest data. ...
by permport
Fri Apr 26, 2019 1:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 324
Views: 41242

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

I wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general became mainstream assets after some maturation time. It's clearly too early for any of them to be considered investments in the traditional sense right now, but the long stretch of time does amazing things.
by permport
Thu Apr 25, 2019 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 324
Views: 41242

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Currently we keep about 2% of our net worth in PMs via bullion stored in a secure location. It doesn't take up much space. People indeed tend to overestimate how much space a literal fortune in gold takes up. Gold is about $1280 an ounce and it's an element that has about 20 times the density of wa...
by permport
Wed Apr 24, 2019 4:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dump international?
Replies: 228
Views: 16108

Re: Dump international?

The day, nay the second, you dump international it'll start outperforming.

Murphy's Law... it's the ultimate law of the universe! :mrgreen:
by permport
Sat Apr 20, 2019 2:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Boglehead Philosophy - High Yield Dividend Funds
Replies: 22
Views: 2791

Re: Boglehead Philosophy - High Yield Dividend Funds

I personally would not recommend going down the high dividend rabbit hole.

In a nutshell: you will likely be best served in the long run with a market cap weighted total market fund.
by permport
Sun Apr 07, 2019 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kevin O’Leary’s Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1716

Re: Kevin O’Leary’s Funds

The funds aren't terrible but nothing special either.

I'd say the typical investor is still better off buying market cap weighted index funds from Vanguard and the like. :greedy
by permport
Wed Mar 20, 2019 3:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The case for 100% equities
Replies: 199
Views: 13559

Re: The case for 100% equities

I personally think that 100% equities is inappropriate for just about everyone. My take is that even the people who say they are 100% equities are usually employing a form of mental accounting where they leave out the value of their emergency funds. They're not really 100% equity. In my, admittedly...
by permport
Wed Mar 20, 2019 3:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to get over a $25K stock market loss?
Replies: 125
Views: 10945

Re: How to get over a $25K stock market loss?

Psychologically, you basically paid "tuition" to learn a very good experience. Think of it that way. It's a positive experience because you learned.

Financially, set a more conservative asset allocation.
by permport
Tue Mar 19, 2019 2:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The case for 100% equities
Replies: 199
Views: 13559

Re: The case for 100% equities

Uh oh. Uh oh.

We're about to open up the biggest can of worms of them all in this thread: the mythical rebalancing bonus. :P
by permport
Tue Mar 19, 2019 12:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The case for 100% equities
Replies: 199
Views: 13559

Re: The case for 100% equities

I personally think that 100% equities is inappropriate for just about everyone. My take is that even the people who say they are 100% equities are usually employing a form of mental accounting where they leave out the value of their emergency funds. They're not really 100% equity. In my, admittedly...
by permport
Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The case for 100% equities
Replies: 199
Views: 13559

Re: The case for 100% equities

True. And some peeps on this forum seem to be investing as if that can't happen again. :confused Indeed. 100% stocks my butt. :annoyed I agree with Bogle and Graham: never 100% in the market, and never 100% out of the market. Always have a reasonable percentage. A balance between, say, 80/20 on the...