Search found 208 matches

by permport
Thu Nov 26, 2020 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Look at current PE 10-actionable?
Replies: 33
Views: 1624

Re: Look at current PE 10-actionable?

Yes it's actionable. Valuations based on the CAPE 10 can be used to make asset allocation decisions more prudently, at least on the margin. A high CAPE might encourage a more conservative stock allocation. For instance, you might be 50/50 instead of 60/40. Again, this is only on the margin, but it's...
by permport
Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is it too late to buy Gold?
Replies: 67
Views: 4810

Re: Is it too late to buy Gold?

I'm starting to think that I should buy every type of asset I can, regardless of whether it's "up" or "down" now. That would include gold. I do not know what your intention was, but your statement, implemented properly is what Roy Dalio preaches. Diversification in asset classes...
by permport
Sun Oct 25, 2020 6:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is it too late to buy Gold?
Replies: 67
Views: 4810

Re: Is it too late to buy Gold?

It's too late to not buy gold.
by permport
Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 302
Views: 19328

Re: Gold continues to soar!

Ray Dalio putting it elegantly on American vs Chinese thinking in his latest paper. It also provides insight into why American investors don't like gold but the Chinese do. Very relevant and powerful. For example, to Americans 300 years is a very long time. For the Chinese it is very recent. While h...
by permport
Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR still singing the same song
Replies: 121
Views: 10370

Re: AQR still singing the same song

rkhusky wrote: Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:04 am
Technical analysis involves timing, i.e. studying signals as a function of time. Calculating Beta does not involve timing.
Beta is calculated over a time period. It's absolutely a function of time.

And not all technical analysis is about precise timing either.
by permport
Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too much S&P 500 index concentration in FAAMGs?
Replies: 67
Views: 4222

Re: Too much S&P 500 index concentration in FAAMGs?

Own a total world portfolio with factor tilting and this will be a non-issue. Way more diversified than a U.S. only portfolio, especially one that's just the S&P 500. I don't understand how anyone could possibly have it in their minds that an all-in allocation to the S&P 500 could be conside...
by permport
Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A timely and equanimous article on gold
Replies: 78
Views: 6195

Re: A timely and equanimous article on gold

I think there is a difference between risk and uncertainty. Risks are measurable, they have known probabilities. Uncertainties don’t. They are the “unknown unknowns”, the black swans. My opinion is that it is foolish to believe we can precisely calculate (or even estimate) all probabilities in the ...
by permport
Wed Sep 02, 2020 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bridgewater All Weather strategy. It worked, until it didn't.
Replies: 16
Views: 2207

Re: Bridgewater All Weather strategy. It worked, until it didn't.

People often misuse the term "all weather" in investing. The phrase is often misconstrued as being a reference to a never changing portfolio allocation. That's not necessarily the case. A portfolio strategy can have constantly shifting allocations and still be "all weather" so lo...
by permport
Wed Aug 05, 2020 3:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Beware the Hype on Gold"
Replies: 170
Views: 12939

Re: "Beware the Hype on Gold"

Let me generalize to make it clearer. If you borrow money to make an investment with a positive return, you will "spend less than you make" in future, but you are making more. If, in a hypothetical example, scenario one you don't borrow and earn $100 per year forever. Scenario two you bor...
by permport
Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Fund vs Gold Fund
Replies: 90
Views: 4442

Re: TIPS Fund vs Gold Fund

Crow Hunter wrote: Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:29 pm Just keep in mind the history of gold in the US when you are planning your TEOTWAWKI scenarios.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_Reserve_Act
Oh pfffft. The government would NEVER do anything nefarious. That's just conspiracy theory territory! :P
by permport
Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Fund vs Gold Fund
Replies: 90
Views: 4442

Re: TIPS Fund vs Gold Fund

TIPS offer guaranteed inflation protection. The guarantee is only good under conditions of mild inflation -- it will be useless under heavy/extreme inflation. Gold doesn't provide particularly strong protection against mild inflation, but it is practically guaranteed to skyrocket under heavy/extrem...
by permport
Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 302
Views: 19328

Re: Gold continues to soar!

If gold does poorly people on this forum will point at that as proof it's a bad investment. If it does well they point to it as a bubble. No honest discussion. Everyone just wants to play "Heads I win. Tails you lose." It's just another variation on SCV vs. TSM. If SCV does well then "...
by permport
Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Beware the Hype on Gold"
Replies: 170
Views: 12939

Re: "Beware the Hype on Gold"

A word about futures: In normal market conditions futures contracts create a virtually unlimited supply of highly liquid "gold" for the market to trade in. However, in a monetary crisis people would exhibit insane demand for physical gold and shun futures contracts. This would create a mas...
by permport
Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Beware the Hype on Gold"
Replies: 170
Views: 12939

Re: "Beware the Hype on Gold"

willthrill81, who is one of the few people on this forum with a balanced view on gold, has astutely pointed out the conditions in Venezuela and how great swathes of the population are using gold to engage in day-to-day commerce. I found a great little video on the impacts money printing in that coun...
by permport
Fri Jul 31, 2020 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Beware the Hype on Gold"
Replies: 170
Views: 12939

Re: "Beware the Hype on Gold"

I explained to you why that comment makes no sense. No, your response didn't invalidate my comment in any way. When you borrow money you create a cycle. It doesn't matter if it's via perpetual bonds, or whether a country continuously rolls over debt, or whether it's to finance college, or through w...
by permport
Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Beware the Hype on Gold"
Replies: 170
Views: 12939

Re: "Beware the Hype on Gold"

When you borrow money you create a cycle. You create a time in the present where you can spend more money than you make. However, in doing so you necessarily create a time in the future where you must spend LESS money than you make to pay it back. That’s a cycle. And it’s guaranteed to happen anyti...
by permport
Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Beware the Hype on Gold"
Replies: 170
Views: 12939

Re: "Beware the Hype on Gold"

There is absolutely no similarity between Elliot wave theory and ray dalio’s writings about debt cycles. That’s just so far off base I don’t even know where to begin. Elliot wave is technical analysis hogwash. Debt cycles are mechanistic and very easy to grasp as being necessarily true. When you bor...
by permport
Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:58 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Bitcoin Exchange Traded Crypto (BTCE)
Replies: 19
Views: 1612

Re: Bitcoin Exchange Traded Crypto (BTCE)

Most people buy them to gamble/speculate so it doesn’t defeat the purpose. Sure, that's one of the reasons. But one of the main features of cryptocurrencies generally is to "escape" the traditional financial system and achieve personal sovereignty and privacy. Buying coins directly can al...
by permport
Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Beware the Hype on Gold"
Replies: 170
Views: 12939

Re: "Beware the Hype on Gold"

Avoid gold at your peril. Could say the same thing about adding it. Not really, since the vast majority of people don't hold it. Not holding gold and holding a traditional equity oriented portfolio is the financial equivalent of New Orleans before Katrina or Japan before the 2011 tsunami. People po...
by permport
Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Beware the Hype on Gold"
Replies: 170
Views: 12939

Re: "Beware the Hype on Gold"

I love how when U.S. stocks rise to records it's all prudent investing on this forum. When gold rises to a record it's hype you should be wary of lol.
by permport
Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Beware the Hype on Gold"
Replies: 170
Views: 12939

Re: "Beware the Hype on Gold"

Avoid gold at your peril.
by permport
Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 26250

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Unlike gold, no one is claiming that VTI shares are "money". I know some fellows who claim that gold is money. You may have heard of them. They signed a thing called the Constitution of the United States. 1: No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters o...
by permport
Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 26250

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

flaccidsteele wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:33 pm
Haha sounds like someone explaining how they achieved financial freedom from buying gold 😂
Sounds like you dodging 000's question on how to buy groceries with your VTI shares, or how you're going to get the cashier to accept Yen.
by permport
Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 26250

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

All Seasons wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:26 pm
000 wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:24 pm
How do I buy groceries with my VTI shares?
You see, you uhh, I um, well. You know, the thing about stocks is that, uh, well. Um, well, you know, cash flow. Tremendous. And the thing is. Well yeah.
LOL
by permport
Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 26250

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Permport, do you think that the recent dollar weakness is one of the causes for gold strength? Relevant to your question: "‘Great Debasement’ will drive move to global stocks over U.S." A torrent of fiscal and monetary stimulus to fight the effects of the coronavirus, combined with alread...
by permport
Sat Jul 25, 2020 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 26250

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Permport, do you think that the recent dollar weakness is one of the causes for gold strength? Possibly. I even think it's likely, but many factors impact major asset classes such as the dollar and gold. It's not really possible to ascertain the motivations of all the millions of buyers and sellers...
by permport
Fri Jul 24, 2020 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 26250

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

People may also find it interesting to note that gold has easily outperformed US stocks over the last 20 years. About 9% cagr vs 6%. The margin is even larger on an after tax basis. I knew that it had outperformed but I didn't realize that the margin was that large. Blue line is gold and red line i...
by permport
Fri Jul 24, 2020 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Parity: When Stocks "Zig," What is the Best "Zag"?
Replies: 31
Views: 1886

Re: Risk Parity: When Stocks "Zig," What is the Best "Zag"?

Buy long Treasury bonds along with gold and cash.

You may also want to consider international assets, bitcoin, and silver, and factors in your equities.
by permport
Fri Jul 24, 2020 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 26250

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

GRP wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 8:37 am People may also find it interesting to note that gold has easily outperformed US stocks over the last 20 years. About 9% cagr vs 6%.

The margin is even larger on an after tax basis.
+1 for diversification!
by permport
Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:33 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Bitcoin Exchange Traded Crypto (BTCE)
Replies: 19
Views: 1612

Re: Bitcoin Exchange Traded Crypto (BTCE)

I think you are much better off buying the cryptocurrencies themselves directly.

Getting exposure via an ETF sort of defeats the very purpose of them entirely.
by permport
Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 26250

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Both gold and silver above their respective resistance levels of $1,800 and $20. Responding to general economic turmoil as expected. As per the other thread the OP started, that's pretty much how you "model" the price.


Image
by permport
Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing or Speculating?
Replies: 13
Views: 1233

Re: Investing or Speculating?

Oddly enough as reality has it, humans can only use past experience to try to predict/anticipate or even just prepare for the future. We incapable of using the future to predict/anticipate the future. hope that helps! Excellent! Then we should all dump the 3-fund and 2-fund strategies, and instead ...
by permport
Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing or Speculating?
Replies: 13
Views: 1233

Re: Investing or Speculating?

For what it is worth (not much), below is the 10-year growth of $10,000 invested the Total Stock Market Index Fund compared with an industry advisor recommended Small-Cap Value fund: $34,088 Vanguard Total Market Index (VTSAX) $24,604 DFA Small-Cap Value (DFSVX) Past performance does not forecast f...
by permport
Fri Feb 21, 2020 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 26250

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

watchnerd wrote: Fri Feb 21, 2020 4:37 pm
Ah, but you should have been in Long Treasuries instead:
Yeah, but if he's anything like me he wants an asset he can fondle in his spare time. :greedy
by permport
Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Designing a Portfolio for an Investor Who Wishes to Avoid "Paper Assets"
Replies: 61
Views: 3145

Re: Designing a Portfolio for an Investor Who Wishes to Avoid "Paper Assets"

willthrill81 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 10:54 pm A die-hard gold bug isn't interested in owning 'paper gold'. Their motto is that if it isn't in your possession, you don't own it.
If he's anything like me he keeps half of the allocation digital and the other half of it physical. Maybe that's what he was getting at?
by permport
Thu Nov 14, 2019 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted]
Replies: 144
Views: 13953

Re: SP500 is very top heavy right now

I think the Journal of Finance literature is pretty clear: the Fama-French Three Factor Model explains over 90% of the cross section of stock market returns. Exposure to these additional factors has benefit over and above a total market fund. The Fama-French Three Factor Model does not say anything...
by permport
Thu Nov 14, 2019 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted]
Replies: 144
Views: 13953

Re: SP500 is very top heavy right now

permport: In my opinion, adding more funds that are already in a Total Stock Market Index Fund does not add diversification. It actually reduces diversification. For example, if we add 50% more Small-Cap Value stocks to a Total Market Fund which already holds the market weight in Small-Cap Value st...
by permport
Thu Nov 14, 2019 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted]
Replies: 144
Views: 13953

Re: Adding to the market portfolio?

The market cap pundits will wave this issue away, but it's a perfectly legitimate concern. Swedroe has remarked on this several times. Adding discrete segments of the market to your portfolio via international, small/mid caps, and value stocks, etc. can improve diversification tremendously. permpor...
by permport
Thu Nov 14, 2019 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted]
Replies: 144
Views: 13953

Re: SP500 is very top heavy right now

The market cap pundits will wave this issue away, but it's a perfectly legitimate concern. Swedroe has remarked on this several times.

Adding discrete segments of the market to your portfolio via international, small/mid caps, and value stocks, etc. can improve diversification tremendously.
by permport
Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best of Bogleheads - your #1 takeaway
Replies: 151
Views: 16211

Re: Best of Bogleheads - your #1 takeaway

Being a truly good Boglehead means doing the one thing that few are willing to do... leave this forum and don't think about your investments.

Don't do anything that will stimulate activity. We all know that CNBC does that, but reading this forum does that to many too. :twisted:
by permport
Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do dividends still exist?
Replies: 204
Views: 13353

Re: Why do dividends still exist?

Companies are only valuable because of dividend payments -- either current or eventual. This shouldn't be confused with the fact that dividends are not a factor. Totally separate things. The dividend discount model, in principle, allows you to ascertain return stream and proper valuation. This doesn...
by permport
Sat Aug 17, 2019 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 81
Views: 17932

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

Another take, via Ray Dalio, why U.S. centric investors perhaps should reconsider their stance.

Image
by permport
Wed Aug 14, 2019 12:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you "lock" computers in your home?
Replies: 77
Views: 6327

Re: Do you "lock" computers in your home?

I lock my computers, yes. However, it's mostly so that nobody can see what I'm doing or mess with important documents.
by permport
Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio bullish on China (China market cap to overtake US in 2030?)
Replies: 58
Views: 6448

Re: Ray Dalio bullish on China (China market cap to overtake US in 2030?)

No, this will never happen because international will always perform poorly compared with U.S.

...

...

...

:wink:
by permport
Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone been to a Kevin O'Leary event???
Replies: 22
Views: 3792

Re: Anyone been to a Kevin O'Leary event???

He came around to the Vancouver area a while back. Yes: complete and total waste of time. Other firms are basically piggybacking off his celebrity status to sell investment programs and products. What's even worse is that many of these programs (such as an options trading one that I saw) are the com...
by permport
Sat Aug 10, 2019 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do dividends still exist?
Replies: 204
Views: 13353

Re: Why do dividends still exist?

Buybacks don't necessarily have the same wealth impact that dividends do.

Ignoring taxes, dividends are wealth neutral.

Buybacks, if done at too high a price, actually decrease the wealth of remaining shareholders. Their impact on shareholder value is very sensitive on the purchase price.
by permport
Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Examples, as old as possible, of specific portfolios Jim Cramer said were "diversified?"
Replies: 4
Views: 611

Re: Examples, as old as possible, of specific portfolios Jim Cramer said were "diversified?"

Jim Cramer advocates that investors personally choose portfolios of small numbers of individual stocks, but choose them so that the portfolio is "diversified." In his book, Getting Back to Even , he wrote: How many stocks does it take to be truly diversified? I have found that it takes a ...
by permport
Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"
Replies: 536
Views: 36307

Re: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"

Sometimes I get deep into the rabbit hole of factors, dividends, tilts and no tilts. It makes for such compelling discussion. It's all very fascinating and actually quite engaging. ...then I have a Larimore moment and say: "You know what? F*!@ it. I'm gonna buy the whole market and just move on...
by permport
Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"
Replies: 536
Views: 36307

Re: Is this right? "if you live off dividends, a crash in stocks prices doesn't matter"

Yup, Bogle was surprisingly pro dividend in his writings for a guy who espoused the total market index.

https://youtu.be/YwV5QzmJOzc

"Dividends matter" -- his phrase, is to almost utter heresy in a today's intellectual investment climate.