Search found 150 matches

by Carlos Danger
Sat Jul 04, 2020 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doesn’t Recent Small Value Underperformance Create It’s Own Argument For Incorporation Into A Portfolio?
Replies: 17
Views: 1167

Re: Doesn’t Recent Small Value Underperformance Create It’s Own Argument For Incorporation Into A Portfolio?

No. Every once in a while I take a gander at what these "value" funds consider "value" and have a hearty chuckle. One man's trash is another man's "value" stock I guess. I absolutely am a believer in owing some "value" stocks that pay a dividend, are well managed, perform admirably during bear marke...
by Carlos Danger
Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you invest in REITs, are you sticking with VNQ/VGSLX or getting selective
Replies: 11
Views: 1113

Re: If you invest in REITs, are you sticking with VNQ/VGSLX or getting selective

REZ. Residential, healthcare, and self-storage REIT ETF. Lower stock market correlation, greater risk adjusted returns, greater absolute return vs. VNQ over its lifespan. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&cal...
by Carlos Danger
Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Providers Postponing Rebalance
Replies: 15
Views: 1362

Re: Index Providers Postponing Rebalance

Indexing by market capitalization is great.

So great we won't bother to do it.

Just this one time.
by Carlos Danger
Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Okay, now when you do buy back in?
Replies: 230
Views: 21677

Re: Okay, now when you do buy back in?

I didn't sell stocks last week. I sold treasuries, and a little gold early in the week. I bought stocks.

I enjoy doing business with the buy-high sell-low crowd.

VIX through the roof and major market moves = time to micro rebalance and take advantage.
by Carlos Danger
Sun Feb 09, 2020 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody buying gold?
Replies: 112
Views: 5153

Re: Anybody buying gold?

30% extended durations Treasuries is pretty hardcore. And I say this as someone who holds 15% long Treasuries. Even Dalio's All Season's portfolio, which is also 7.5% gold, only uses 'regular' long Treasuries, albeit at 40%. If one didn't want to assume the volatility and duration risk of extended ...
by Carlos Danger
Sun Feb 09, 2020 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody buying gold?
Replies: 112
Views: 5153

Re: Anybody buying gold?

I'm "dip buying" gold (IAU etf) every time there's a pullback + a rise in stocks and it slips under 10% of our portfolio. Real interest rates are in a downward trend across the globe. Gold loves real rates declining. I'll sell it when we enter an environment where real interest rates actually start ...
by Carlos Danger
Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla Stock
Replies: 301
Views: 16628

Re: Tesla Stock

What explains this? Pure speculation? Pretty much. [OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek] Even if you are wildly optimistic and assume Tesla is going to take over the auto industry and become the #1 seller of vehicles globally, supplanting Volkswagen's brands, its valuation makes no sense whatsoeve...
by Carlos Danger
Sun Feb 02, 2020 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Do Your Taxes by Hand? Reporter doing story
Replies: 108
Views: 7838

Re: Do You Do Your Taxes by Hand? Reporter doing story

Do federal and state by hand.

Not a Boomer. Gen Xer. Not a luddite. I build my own PCs and spend way too much time on Twitter.
by Carlos Danger
Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 227
Views: 16750

Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

PIR - Pier 1 Imports FYI, unfortunately Pier 1 isn't listed in the Russell 3000 Index, so it will be ineligible for this contest. (That stock was on my original list to short as well.) This is unacceptable. This silly rule should not apply to me, I am the portfolio manager of the Grayson Moorhead H...
by Carlos Danger
Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 227
Views: 16750

Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Grayson Moorhead Securites' otherwise stellar 2019 was tanked by our Tesla short, and we underperformed delivering only a 5.17% return. But 2020 will be better!!! FUND: GRAYSON MOORHEAD SECURITIES LONG: MDT - Medtronic PLC NVDA - Nvidia Corporation DIS - Walt Disney Co SHORT: KSS - Kohl's Corporatio...
by Carlos Danger
Wed Jan 08, 2020 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advisor laying out a convincing argument for active management?
Replies: 43
Views: 3125

Re: Advisor laying out a convincing argument for active management?

These are not the results that I get. Go to: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio Portfolio 1 is this: Ticker Name Allocation VSEAX JPMorgan Small Cap Equity A 16.00% JLCAX JPMorgan US Large Cap Core Plus A 17.00% ARTMX Artisan Mid Cap Investor 16.00% OAKIX Oakmark International I...
by Carlos Danger
Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 684
Views: 20959

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

I will estimate a ~ 15% increase to 3715.40
by Carlos Danger
Thu Jan 02, 2020 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - worth another look?
Replies: 192
Views: 20195

Re: Utilities - worth another look?

Four pages of replies here, and I'm sorry but I don't know why no one has pointed out the returns of utilities before 2000, which were crushed by the S&P 500. In what time period before 2000? From Jan. of 1985 through Dec. of 1999, assuming equal monthly contributions, Fidelity Select Utilites enjo...
by Carlos Danger
Thu Jan 02, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - worth another look?
Replies: 192
Views: 20195

Re: Utilities - worth another look?

What's the boglehead dictum vs. long treasuries, I missed that one. Rhetorical question, of course I should and will go look it up myself. But "long long term treasuries" has been a pretty good trade for the last 30+ years. BHers tend not to like long treasuries (and even more so for long long) bec...
by Carlos Danger
Wed Jan 01, 2020 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - worth another look?
Replies: 192
Views: 20195

Re: Utilities - worth another look?

20 years is a terribly short period of time to reach any conclusion... Notably with sectors (which tend to come and go, not year over year, but decade over decade) and with a moody metric like correlation. OP, did you take a good look at Fidelity Select Utilities (FSUTX)? This would add 10 more yea...
by Carlos Danger
Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Announcement for upcoming 2020 Boglehead Contest]
Replies: 73
Views: 3986

Re: 2020 Boglehead Contest

I will guess an increase of 15% to 3,715.40
by Carlos Danger
Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 3074
Views: 536518

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

+ 22.5% in 2019. 60% equities (75% U.S., 25% International), 30% fixed income, 10% gold.

Hopefully 2020 is another good year.
by Carlos Danger
Mon Dec 30, 2019 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decade of Debt. Market fueled by debt.
Replies: 56
Views: 4803

Re: Decade of Debt. Market fueled by debt.

The Fed's actions will have consequences some day, but there's no way of knowing when so you have to stay invested. We're at 60% equities. Between that and also having an allocation to fixed income and gold, I can live with the hit to our portfolio if we have 2008 redux, or 2000-2002 redux, or somet...
by Carlos Danger
Fri Dec 20, 2019 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BUY! BUY!! BUY!!! So, is anybody hedging?
Replies: 66
Views: 5723

Re: BUY! BUY!! BUY!!! So, is anybody hedging?

I'm always hedged. 60% equities, 30% bonds, 10% gold. If the market tanks, I'll rebalance one or more additional times mid-year (MARKET TIMING, OH NO!) and buy while there is "blood in the streets". If it doesn't, I'll be happy picking up its returns with only 60% of our portfolio and sleeping sound...
by Carlos Danger
Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Total Bond and not Treasuries?
Replies: 161
Views: 14783

Re: Why Total Bond and not Treasuries?

I use a Janus Intermediate Term Bond Fund in a 403(b) where it was once the only option for bonds, and is now the cheapest (and best performing historically) of 3 choices. In our Vanguard IRAs, I use EDV (Vanguard extended duration treasuries). If I was not limited by choice in the 403(b), I would d...
by Carlos Danger
Sat Dec 07, 2019 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump
Replies: 189
Views: 16333

Re: Wall Street bets international stocks will top US equities in 2020 after a decade-long slump

If "Wall Street" thinks this, then maybe it's time I ditch international and back up the truck on 100% U.S. I happily bought long term treasuries hand over fist in 2018 when "Wall-Street" thought interest rates were going to the moon despite the U.S. clearly about to enter a period of slowing growth...
by Carlos Danger
Fri Dec 06, 2019 11:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real estate or gold as inflation hedge?
Replies: 12
Views: 1078

Re: Real estate or gold as inflation hedge?

I don't know why the myth of gold as inflation hedge persists. It's not. Gold investors have sometimes taken a bath on gold during inflationary periods, as well as made money on gold during periods of more stability. Gold loves falling real interest rates. Gold does not love rising real interest rat...
by Carlos Danger
Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don’t think I am a good Boglehead
Replies: 80
Views: 6322

Re: I don’t think I am a good Boglehead

DesertDiva wrote:Ok
jb1 wrote:Ok
It's 2019. Get with the times.

"Ok Boomer" is the correct response.
by Carlos Danger
Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard mobile app comes in last in JD Power satisfaction survey
Replies: 10
Views: 907

Re: Vanguard mobile app comes in last in JD Power satisfaction survey

It's about worthless for anything other than logging in on your phone to check your account balance. Maybe that's a good thing . . . . We're Gen Xers with the latest and greatest smart phones, we use Alexa in our kitchen, we have Gigabit internet and use it, etc. We're still with Vanguard for a reas...
by Carlos Danger
Mon Dec 02, 2019 3:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is anyone else having trouble getting into vanguard [12-1-19]
Replies: 57
Views: 3067

Re: Is anyone else having trouble getting into vanguard [12-1-19]

"our team is working to resolve this as quickly as possible"

"our team is working to resolve this as quickly as possible"

"our team is working to resolve this as quickly as possible"

Unfortunately "quickly" isnt going to cover today's market hours it seems.
by Carlos Danger
Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is anyone else having trouble getting into vanguard [12-1-19]
Replies: 57
Views: 3067

Re: Is anyone else having trouble getting into vanguard [12-1-19]

Got_Milk2015 wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:55 am
Just off the phone with Vanguard, it's a known issue and they're working on it...no time estimate for fix
You're the man (or woman). :sharebeer

Thanks for the useful reply and saving the rest of having issues a phone call.
by Carlos Danger
Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is anyone else having trouble getting into vanguard [12-1-19]
Replies: 57
Views: 3067

Re: Is anyone else having trouble getting into vanguard [12-1-19]

Literally no other sites I cannot log into. Even crummy oft-troubled oneamerica site for 403(b). Cannot log in via Phone browser, although on the phone I at least get texted a log-in code before saying cant connect. On explorer, firefox, or chrome on PC I don't even get a texted code. Just immediate...
by Carlos Danger
Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is anyone else having trouble getting into vanguard [12-1-19]
Replies: 57
Views: 3067

Re: Is anyone else having trouble getting into vanguard [12-1-19]

Cannot log in on my laptop. Been trying all morning, just get the "the page you requested could no longer be found" page.

No e-mail about the issue, or text, no tweet from their twitter account. Ridiculous.
by Carlos Danger
Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread
Replies: 212
Views: 10824

Re: Yes, another International vs Domestic Thread

I'm a big believer in inexpensive *gasp* ACTIVE MANAGEMENT for international stocks. I think for some very real reasons, international index funds will CONTINUE to underperform the U.S. over the long-haul, at least the long-haul of the rest of my life, with fleeting periods of outperformance like we...
by Carlos Danger
Tue Nov 26, 2019 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 6414
Views: 541908

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

The global slowdown continues and the U.S. GDP print is going to have a zero in front of it in the 4th quarter. But everything is awesome. This is why you have to ride the roller coaster. If you acted like a rational investor, you'd miss out on gains. "Investing" is a losing game. You have to blindl...
by Carlos Danger
Tue Nov 26, 2019 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 361
Views: 96823

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Still wondering if the VWINX bond portion outperformed total bond?I would guess it probably does by a small margin. No good way to test just the bond portion, but it has beaten a 2-fund portfolio of the S&P 500 Index Fund and Bond Market Index Fund with the same allocation to stocks (less than 40%)...
by Carlos Danger
Wed Nov 20, 2019 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equally weighted S&P 500 Index fund?
Replies: 49
Views: 3347

Re: Equally weighted S&P 500 Index fund?

We use the traditional market cap weighted S&P 500 Index Fund, because it is one of the few decent choices in a 403(b). If we were using our IRAs or taxable account with Vanguard to invest in the S&P 500, I would choose the RSP etf (equal weight). Market-cap weighting buys high and sells low. Equal ...
by Carlos Danger
Tue Nov 19, 2019 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do index funds magnify bubbles and recessions?
Replies: 16
Views: 1730

Re: Do index funds magnify bubbles and recessions?

No. And investing in broad market Index Funds (NOT niche sector funds that call themselves index funds) helps you to avoid all of the damage that occurs when a bubble pops. 2000 tech bubble? If you had an S&P 500 Index fund, you avoided the kind of damage people in actively managed funds that were a...
by Carlos Danger
Thu Nov 14, 2019 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted]
Replies: 144
Views: 13844

Re: SP500 is very top heavy right now

It would bother me if an S&P 500 Index fund was the only thing we invested in. It's not, so MSFT is only 1.3% of our portfolio instead of 4.3% like SPY.

The top 10 equity holdings in our portfolio make up 8.16% of the total portfolio.
by Carlos Danger
Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard and basketball
Replies: 14
Views: 1706

Re: Vanguard and basketball

I'm a college football junkie.

I've been seeing A LOT of Vanguard TV ads all season. Well actually, just one ad, over and over and over and over again. Especially on CBS during the 3:30pm EST SEC game.

It doesn't help that it's incredibly irritating.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JiPHXDf0xUs
by Carlos Danger
Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...
Replies: 107
Views: 7820

Re: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...

Legos. Light-weight Not fragile Boxes have full-color artwork so they display nicely Easy to sell Easy to recognize and pick sets that will increase in value If your portfolio does well enough you never need or want to sell any, they're something that would be enjoyable for your grandchildren to hav...
by Carlos Danger
Wed Oct 09, 2019 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: INTERNATIONALS 20% of Equities or 20% of Portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 4421

Re: INTERNATIONALS 20% of Equities or 20% of Portfolio?

There's no rationale for a total world market-cap allocation to international other than wanting to match the total world market. Aside from the positives of holding international equities, mainly the (limited) diversification benefit, there are negatives like currency risk, rule of law risk, etc. I...
by Carlos Danger
Sun Sep 29, 2019 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ken Fisher wants you to know that he cares...
Replies: 49
Views: 4984

Re: Ken Fisher wants you to know that he cares...

What's the problem? Are people supposed to bury their heads in the sand and ignore reality for the sake of feelings? He's not responsible for what other human beings find convincing. That's on them. It would be inappropriate for him to run ads that he knows are less effective for the sake of some so...
by Carlos Danger
Sat Sep 28, 2019 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Uber IPO
Replies: 38
Views: 3487

Re: Uber IPO

It was tempting to invest in a taxi company that loses a Billion dollars a quarter, but I managed to resist the siren's song of Uber. Oh wait, I forgot, you hail your ride with your phone, so it's a "tech" company. Just like Dominion Energy, seeing as I can pay my electricity and gas bill on my phon...
by Carlos Danger
Sat Sep 28, 2019 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds are bad because in tough times traders sell a lot?
Replies: 30
Views: 2828

Re: Index Funds are bad because in tough times traders sell a lot?

People will sell equities when things turn south, and prices will fall?

Does your friend have a paid newsletter I can subscribe to? Riveting stuff.
by Carlos Danger
Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?
Replies: 284
Views: 36759

Re: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?

10% allocation in gold in a falling inflation environment? How exactly is that a good idea? 10% Gold allocation in a falling real interest rate environment , (which has been brought about, in part, by falling inflation and growth). Great idea. Gold is not an inflation hedge . Not sure why that myth...
by Carlos Danger
Thu Sep 26, 2019 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?
Replies: 284
Views: 36759

Re: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?

Age: Late 30s Asset Allocation: 50% Equities, 40% Bonds (heavy on extended duration treasuries), 10% Gold Why: Growth and inflation are slowing and have been since last fall. Q3 2018 was the cycle peak and the time to shift. Bonds and Gold are crushing equities over that time period. Will move equit...
by Carlos Danger
Sun Sep 08, 2019 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The most annoying thing about other drivers
Replies: 8
Views: 822

Re: The most annoying thing about other drivers

The most annoying thing to me are the idiots who like to cluster together on the highway. I call them idiot clusters. Creative, I know. Cruising along, carefree, then I point out to the Mrs. that we've got an idiot cluster ahead. For some reason sheep feel the need to herd together. So then it's 5-1...
by Carlos Danger
Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott on value investing and the Achilles' heel of market cap indexing (Morningstar podcast)
Replies: 63
Views: 6778

Re: Rob Arnott on value investing and the Achilles' heel of market cap indexing (Morningstar podcast)

Forester wrote:
Sat Aug 24, 2019 6:03 am


Rob Arnott discusses . . . how passive indexes are prone to holding on to large megacap stocks with a high chance of subsequent underperformance.
Apparently so is he. Overweight Apple and Exxon? :oops: I think I'll stick with the index.
by Carlos Danger
Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 248
Views: 31995

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

Portfolio 1 is 40% S&P 500, 20% International Value, 40% Total Bond Portfolio 2 takes the 40% bond down to 30% and adds 10% gold. Equal monthly contributions, rebalanced annualy. The portfolio with gold wins since 1986. Barely. Virtually identical. I'm a long term treasury guy, and in that case addi...
by Carlos Danger
Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 248
Views: 31995

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

Gold is a high yield asset. It yields nothing, which is quite lofty these days.
by Carlos Danger
Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron'
Replies: 101
Views: 11570

Re: GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron'

Actionable? If he's right, it could be the exogenous event that brings on the next crash. GE is rated BBB. (It doesn't deserve to be, it should be rated as junk). If he's right, and proven so, even the hacks at the ratings agencies will have no choice but to downgrade GE to junk. Guess what pension...
by Carlos Danger
Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year treasury yield drops below 2% for the first time in history
Replies: 41
Views: 5624

Re: 30 year treasury yield drops below 2% for the first time in history

I cant imagine anyone buys 30 year treasuries yielding 1.99% to actually hold for 30 years. Obviously, interest rates will go up some time in the next 30 years. It's hardly obvious. The current yield of just below 2% on a 30 year treasury, 30 years from now, could look lofty. I don't know what the ...
by Carlos Danger
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard ongoing glitches, August 12-13, 2019]
Replies: 256
Views: 18624

Re: [Vanguard price glitches, incorrect market info for August 12, 2019]

drzzzzz wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:17 am
IS anyone having difficulty getting onto Vanguard's website this morning on a chromebook or laptop? The site is just spinning
Yes. Some trouble. Was able to eventually log in.
by Carlos Danger
Sun Aug 11, 2019 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.
Replies: 254
Views: 24527

Re: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.

It's coming IMO, only a matter of time.

There's a reason Powell used the language "effective lower bound" where he and other Fed chairs once used the language "zero lower bound." And that was in public.

In private, depending on who you believe, fed members have allegedly discussed the possibility.