Search found 41 matches

by Carlos Danger
Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you think of the Tesla craziness?
Replies: 25
Views: 2222

Re: What do you think of the Tesla craziness?

It's certainly entertaining, and I'm rooting for Tesla and Musk with my heart even though my mind thinks I'm watching a slow-motion train wreck.

I have no financial stake in Tesla in any way so I can just enjoy the show.
by Carlos Danger
Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it a sign that a bear market is coming, when most people are afraid that stocks will plummet?
Replies: 42
Views: 2775

Re: Is it a sign that a bear market is coming, when most people are afraid that stocks will plummet?

Top of the dot.com bubble was in March of 2000. Only a little over a month earlier E*trade had this ad for the Superbowl, "Money coming out the Wazoo." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oftjwYmlfoA It seems to me that the market crashes when everyone thinks the party will never end. Then it does. I c...
by Carlos Danger
Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market decline in 2019 ?
Replies: 73
Views: 6461

Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Maybe. Maybe not. I'm not selling anything even if it gets to the point where I believe the storm is on the horizon because I'm comfortable with our asset allocation, but when the next bear market comes, I'll engage in "market timing" by tightening up my consumer spending so I can invest more while ...
by Carlos Danger
Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Case for buying individual Stocks as 10% of portfolio
Replies: 43
Views: 3172

Re: Case for buying individual Stocks as 10% of portfolio

My case for doing so is that it actually allows me to be simplified and limit expenses. The other 90% of our investments across all accounts are in a simple, low expense 4-fund portfolio. I used to use ETFs, and had quite the hodge-podge. This sector, that sector, this industry, that industry. All w...
by Carlos Danger
Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did Jeff Bezos just pull a Henry Ford?
Replies: 32
Views: 2529

Re: Did Jeff Bezos just pull a Henry Ford?

If Amazon is successful in getting a minimum wage increase in the United States, will that have a much broader effect on the sale of consumer products? The answer is absolutely yes. A national minimum wage hike would be huge for Amazon's sales. Lower class and lower middle class spend essentially e...
by Carlos Danger
Sun Sep 30, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015
Replies: 62
Views: 2531

Re: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015

It's great that Shiller continues to teach/do academic work instead of living on a yacht since he's a multi-billionaire.

He is a multi-billionaire, right? I mean, afterall, he accurately sees/forecasts bubbles.
by Carlos Danger
Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?
Replies: 129
Views: 14750

Re: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?

Yes we should stay in crazytown OP, but you should have only had one foot in in the first place and should be diversified. I am comfortable with our asset allocation. And if that light at the end of the tunnel IS another train, I'll engage in that big no-no of "market timing" and cheaply scoop up as...
by Carlos Danger
Thu Sep 27, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't I read about this strategy more? It seems reasonable and pretty straight forward.
Replies: 68
Views: 8497

Re: Why don't I read about this strategy more? It seems to beat everything else

In fact a simple Google search shows that he [Meb Faber]was a sub advisor on that fund and left to start a similar ETF which he still runs: https://www.etf.com/sections/daily-etf-watch/22291-daily-etf-watch-faber-drops-gtaa-role.html https://i.postimg.cc/SKRcYZsH/GMOM.png Unfair comparison of cours...
by Carlos Danger
Thu Sep 27, 2018 11:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Access to WSJ denied
Replies: 11
Views: 1459

Re: Access to WSJ denied

They did you a favor.

Try bogleheads.org instead.
by Carlos Danger
Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't I read about this strategy more? It seems reasonable and pretty straight forward.
Replies: 68
Views: 8497

Re: Why don't I read about this strategy more? It seems to beat everything else

... Why not simply buy an index (like S&P500) when the 12 month moving average is flat or going up, and sell when it is going down. I don't believe I can predict the future at all, but I know for sure I can tell which way a line is going on a graph over a period of time. The key distinction here is...
by Carlos Danger
Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Other Portfolios that aren't 3 fund
Replies: 31
Views: 3311

Re: Other Portfolios that aren't 3 fund

I recently simplified our overall portfolio across 403b, Roth IRAs, and taxable, jettisoned all ETFs save for VIOO, and made Wellesley a core holding. State Street S&P 500 Index Fund 45% Vanguard Wellesley 35% Vanguard S&P 600 Small Cap 5% Vanguard International Explorer 5% Handful of Individual Sto...
by Carlos Danger
Tue Sep 25, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with 401K allocation - Vanguard Total Stock Index out of 401K options
Replies: 10
Views: 769

Re: Help with 401K allocation - Vanguard Total Stock Index out of 401K options

Just quickly eye-balling this I figured 80/20 S&P 500/Russell 2000 Growth would do the trick. Plugged it into portfolio visualizer. Standard deviation within 3 tenths, Sharpe ratio difference of only 1 100th and Sortino 5 100ths. Used Russell 2000 growth etf instead of mutual fund version because da...
by Carlos Danger
Tue Sep 25, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Facebook group for Vanguard investors!
Replies: 22
Views: 2145

Re: New Facebook group for Vanguard investors!

I clicked to join. Hopefully I get approved. :sharebeer
by Carlos Danger
Tue Sep 25, 2018 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DIYers Taking a Toll
Replies: 50
Views: 6514

Re: DIYers Taking a Toll

He warned me that anyone can do well with index investing in a bull market but when/if it changes indexers will get crushed. He's right, the next time we see a market like 2000-2002 or 2008-2009, or a day like the one that occured in Oct. 1987, index investments will get crushed. But so will active...
by Carlos Danger
Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?
Replies: 152
Views: 11723

Re: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?

We have no bonds. My plan is to see where we are at age 55, and perhaps move heavily into bonds, or perhaps not. I save/invest based on an extremely conservative assumption that our asset mix (which is growth oriented and has and should continue to outpace the market slightly) will produce only 5% a...
by Carlos Danger
Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [A Boglehead explains the simplest way to manage your money - alternative viewpoint]
Replies: 45
Views: 4764

Re: [A Boglehead explains the simplest way to manage your money - alternative viewpoint]

"Simple" depends on the particular person. We have 3 funds in a 403(b), 10 ETFs in our Vanguard IRAs and Taxable Account as well as some shares in 5 individual companies. If I suffer an untimely/early death, I have instructions written up for the Mrs. to go to one fund in the 403(b) (S&P 500 Index f...
by Carlos Danger
Sun Sep 09, 2018 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Website to analyze investment portfolios?
Replies: 5
Views: 786

Re: Website to analyze investment portfolios?

Portfolio Visualizer This site will give you all that OP. Large vs. Mid vs. Small Cap, International vs. Domestic, Sectors, Sharpe Ratio, Sortino, Market correlation, etc, etc., etc. For some of that stuff, you'll have to click on the "metrics" tab after your input all your holdings and analyze: ht...
by Carlos Danger
Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1166
Views: 96521

Re: Is international investing necessary at all?

Likely not necessary, but why take on the risk? What if the U.S. experiences some "lost decades" during your prime investing/saving years? I understand where you're coming from. My natural inclination is to mostly avoid international. I loathe putting money into VXUS. It's boring, it has thus far un...
by Carlos Danger
Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does market timing have to be perfect to be effective?
Replies: 35
Views: 2543

Re: Does market timing have to be perfect to be effective?

I've back tested some plans I've thought about. Getting out at the right time or reasonably close to it is actually pretty easy in a lot of cases. It's the getting back in that's the tricky part. Even if you get out at the right time, or reasonably close to it, you can very quickly erase the benefit...
by Carlos Danger
Sun Sep 02, 2018 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 82
Views: 9384

Re: Call the Top!

Image


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by Carlos Danger
Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sneaky ways to get into closed funds (e.g. POAGX in TN 529)
Replies: 32
Views: 2921

Re: Sneaky ways to get into closed funds (e.g. POAGX in TN 529)

If one is confident their stock picks will continue to outperform the market, there's nothing preventing one from simply imitating them.

http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/ ... SA&t=POAGX
by Carlos Danger
Mon Aug 27, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 289
Views: 44670

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

I'm from the future OP, the year 2018. DON'T DO IT!
by Carlos Danger
Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock options inducing employee sabotage
Replies: 14
Views: 1680

Re: Stock options inducing employee sabotage

Or they could just buy put options, do nothing illegal, and wait for the regular monthly Chipotle mass poisoning. How the heck that company keeps going strong is beyond me. If I was Moe's, I'd be running TV ads that look like made for TV infomercials. In black and white, woman keels over holding her...
by Carlos Danger
Wed Aug 22, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What non-Vanguard ETFs will you be looking to buy?
Replies: 62
Views: 6656

Re: What non-Vanguard ETFs will you be looking to buy?

In our portfolio I use: IHI - iShares Medical Devices Have to admit, IHI intrigues me. :beer It's hard not to like. Fared no worse than the S&P in 2008, yet has significantly outperformed during good times. The firms at the top of the ETF are good companies, yet unlike FAANG are not already a massi...
by Carlos Danger
Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The futility of stock market forecasts
Replies: 8
Views: 1234

Re: The futility of stock market forecasts

I'm in my late 30s and still have a few decades left to be buying, so if Mr. Bauman is right and his timing was just a little too early, I'll start living off Ramen and cancel my cable as soon as the markets crash 70% so I can buy VTI hand over first with every last cent I can scrap together. Fortun...
by Carlos Danger
Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What non-Vanguard ETFs will you be looking to buy?
Replies: 62
Views: 6656

Re: What non-Vanguard ETFs will you be looking to buy?

In our portfolio I use: IHI - iShares Medical Devices ITA - iShares Aerospace & Defense PSCH - PowerShares small cap Healthcare FBT - First Trust BioTechnology I have a real problem with relying heavily on FAANG for growth in exchange for taking on the risk associated with having just 5 stocks make ...
by Carlos Danger
Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Who uses the 3 fund portfolio ?
Replies: 112
Views: 19549

Re: Who uses the 3 fund portfolio ?

I don't, but within our portfolio a 2 fund approach is the core (State Street S&P Index Fund in 403(b), Vanguard Total International Stock Market in our Vanguard accounts). Those 2 account for about half of our portfolio. Once we hit age 50, we'll move toward a 3 fund approach and start moving heavi...
by Carlos Danger
Fri Aug 17, 2018 6:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US small cap ETF: MSCI US small, S&P600 or Russell 2000? (UK based investor)
Replies: 10
Views: 797

Re: US small cap ETF: MSCI US small, S&P600 or Russell 2000? (UK based investor)

As has already been stated, S&P weeds out the trash.

I use VIOO (and IVOO for midcap) in our portfolio.
by Carlos Danger
Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?
Replies: 95
Views: 10295

Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

I like AAPL and Amazon. I allow both of them to make up the absolute allowable max I have set for any company in our portfolio, 2% overall. Still lower than SPY or even VTI for APPL and Amazon though. Google's (and Facebook's) business model is too closely tied to politics and the speech issue for m...
by Carlos Danger
Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe:Don’t Go “Mad Money”
Replies: 22
Views: 3413

Re: Larry Swedroe:Don’t Go “Mad Money”

CNBC is my background noise all day. It's fine to criticize his stock picking ability, but in fairness to him comparing his stock picks to the S&P as a measure of his ability/advice to viewers would be unfair since he frequently repeats that people should be heavily invested in index funds like an S...
by Carlos Danger
Tue Jul 24, 2018 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index-ish fund that lacks FAANG?
Replies: 45
Views: 4668

Re: Index-ish fund that lacks FAANG?

The only decent 403(b) option available to us is a State Street S&P 500 index fund. As a result, heavily using VTSAX in our Vanguard IRA/Taxable accounts along with the above meant we had a pretty decent % of our portfolio in FAANG. So I stopped using VTSAX and instead "slice and dice" in our Vangua...
by Carlos Danger
Wed Jul 18, 2018 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 330
Views: 25539

Re: Invest in Tesla?

It's 0.63% of our portfolio mostly thanks to ARKW. Not crazy about Tesla or Netflix, but otherwise high on that ETF and it has been delivering for us. Plenty of stock in the S&P I'm also not crazy about, but STFAX is the only decent option in 403(b) so S&P 500 is a massive portion of our total portf...
by Carlos Danger
Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New JUST ETF - thoughts?
Replies: 12
Views: 821

Re: New JUST ETF - thoughts?

My thoughts are it's idiotic. 1st of all, what these funds often define as socially responsible or moral, I define as socially reckless or immoral. 2nd of all I invest to build wealth, not to express my political feelings. If the some company is the biggest donor to the candidate for President I do ...
by Carlos Danger
Thu May 31, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General Electric
Replies: 73
Views: 9564

Re: General Electric

Any identical company sans the name GE and its history would not generate these discussions.

The mightiest of empires have risen and fallen, so too can U.S. corporations.

GE made their bed and now they can lie in it.
by Carlos Danger
Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT article: Everyone should hire a financial planner
Replies: 103
Views: 10520

Re: NYT article: Everyone should hire a financial planner

I think I'm going to hang out my own shingle now. Financial adviser selection coach. For a reasonable fee, clients can tell me about their financial wants and needs (or tell me nothing at all, it doesn't really matter.) I will then direct them to a financial adviser, or website, that I deem "suitab...
by Carlos Danger
Sat Apr 07, 2018 8:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Has used furniture dropped in value dramatically?
Replies: 119
Views: 13033

Re: Has used furniture dropped in value dramatically?

I'm thrilled about the distaste for "old brown" furniture. I don't care WHAT my furniture looks like, so when we bought our current house last year, I was all to happy to furnish most of it for free by relieving the sellers the burden of moving their worthless oak furniture. I'm currently typing thi...
by Carlos Danger
Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we in bear territory?
Replies: 49
Views: 6708

Re: Are we in bear territory?

Yes.

No.

Maybe so.
by Carlos Danger
Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7393
Views: 1550902

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Indexes down around 3%. Everyone should panic, it's time to sell. This opinion is in no way influenced by the fact that I put in my monthly buy order for VTSAX this morning. On a serious note, I have a hard time seeing this as anything other than a short term correction and a hard time seeing us act...
by Carlos Danger
Wed Mar 28, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?
Replies: 113
Views: 14320

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

I missed out on plenty in my impoverished youth.

Now I own VTSAX, and sleep easy knowing I have an expense ratio of .04% and I'll never miss out on anything again. :sharebeer
by Carlos Danger
Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hold on to your hats, think it is going to get rough
Replies: 23
Views: 5669

Re: Hold on to your hats, think it is going to get rough

Smooth sailing so far today. :happy

We're 25-30 year from retirement.

Clear waters, stormy weather, we'll see plenty of both over the years but we'll get to where we are going.
by Carlos Danger
Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we missing recession /bear market beginning
Replies: 174
Views: 19729

Re: Are we missing recession /bear market beginning

lostdog wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:16 am
Some of you watch too much cnbc. Ignore the noise.
But it's entertaining when the excitable man yells and hits the big red buttons.