Search found 67 matches

by Carlos Danger
Wed May 15, 2019 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest or Payoff Home
Replies: 38
Views: 2754

Re: Invest or Payoff Home

For me personally, the fear of being homeless would be a greater motivator than the hope of good market returns.

I'd pay off the mortgage 1st and sleep like a baby.
by Carlos Danger
Mon May 13, 2019 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds for growth Vs Bonds for rebalancing
Replies: 7
Views: 567

Re: Bonds for growth Vs Bonds for rebalancing

I personally target long-term treasuries because I want something less correlated with equities, especially in the times that equities are falling like a brick. I'm with you. I prefer TLT over BND. Less correlated with equities & higher return than a bond market index. I don't care about volatility...
by Carlos Danger
Sun May 12, 2019 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charlie Munger_WSJ interview
Replies: 17
Views: 3696

Re: Charlie Munger_WSJ interview

Dang... I've tried all the backdoor, private browsing, cookie deleting tricks I can think of but still can't get past. Have they finally perfected the paywall? Time to go to the library perhaps. I use Firefox browser with the "Bypass Paywalls" add-on anytime I want to read something that is behind ...
by Carlos Danger
Sat May 11, 2019 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I bet on S&P500
Replies: 51
Views: 2998

Re: Why I bet on S&P500

The reality is, it's painfully obvious to anyone who's traveled or lived outside the US for any length of time why the US will out perform: it's a society heavily tilted in the favour of capitalists & capitalism. There's all sorts of consequences to this (good and bad), but one of primary consequen...
by Carlos Danger
Thu May 02, 2019 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short BYND? (beyond meat, IPO today)
Replies: 76
Views: 4515

Re: Short BYND? (beyond meat, IPO today)

Nothing is ever a good candidate to short.

I don't have a problem with shortsellers like many seem to have, I'm just not going to become one. Or take up skydiving for that matter.
by Carlos Danger
Thu May 02, 2019 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The market is overvalued"
Replies: 90
Views: 6959

Re: "The market is overvalued"

I personally believe that U.S. stocks are massively overvalued. I also believe that I could be wrong (I often am) . I sleep well with a 60/40 portfolio. If I'm wrong and the market keeps going higher, 60% of my portfolio will rip with it, while the other 40% will merely produce income. If I'm right...
by Carlos Danger
Mon Apr 29, 2019 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Back testing assets: best results with long term treasury yet common advice is aggregated bonds or global bonds. Why?
Replies: 41
Views: 1944

Re: Back testing assets: best results with long term treasury yet common advice is aggregated bonds or global bonds. Why

MindBogler wrote:
Mon Apr 29, 2019 3:59 pm

That's an interesting slide with a reasonable r^2. Thanks for sharing.
Wish I could have found a more recent one, I'd guess it's even higher now with some of those EU nations closer to the line.

I'm too lazy in my middle-age to do this sort of work myself anymore. :D
by Carlos Danger
Mon Apr 29, 2019 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Back testing assets: best results with long term treasury yet common advice is aggregated bonds or global bonds. Why?
Replies: 41
Views: 1944

Re: Back testing assets: best results with long term treasury yet common advice is aggregated bonds or global bonds. Why

MindBogler wrote:
Mon Apr 29, 2019 3:48 pm
I don't know why rates are where they are but the US is a major anomaly compared to the rest of the developed world.
Image
by Carlos Danger
Mon Apr 29, 2019 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Back testing assets: best results with long term treasury yet common advice is aggregated bonds or global bonds. Why?
Replies: 41
Views: 1944

Re: Back testing assets: best results with long term treasury yet common advice is aggregated bonds or global bonds. Why

Get on M* and look at what happened to long bonds of any kind during the 1950s and 1960s and 1970s when interest rates went up. Working age population growth was accelerating in the 1950s towards the post-war average, and spent the 60s and 70s WELL ABOVE it. IMO, interest rates will not be behaving...
by Carlos Danger
Mon Apr 29, 2019 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Back testing assets: best results with long term treasury yet common advice is aggregated bonds or global bonds. Why?
Replies: 41
Views: 1944

Re: Back testing assets: best results with long term treasury yet common advice is aggregated bonds or global bonds. Why

Only bond option in 403(b) is a Janus intermediate-term bond fund, so I use that. But in our Vanguard IRAs, I use TLT. Long term treasuries are less correlated with stocks than a bond market index, and have performed better and in my humble opinion will continue to perform better as well over the co...
by Carlos Danger
Tue Apr 16, 2019 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bogle
Replies: 104
Views: 13623

Re: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bo

Vanguard's 2019 economic and market outlook (2019-2029) March 27, 2019 https://institutional.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/institutional/researchcommentary/article/InvCom2019VEMOoutlook So they're forecasting 4-6% rate of return over the next decade for a 60-40 portfolio. In response I'm going to jus...
by Carlos Danger
Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Almost 20 years since the S&P500 hit 1500.
Replies: 15
Views: 2129

Re: Almost 20 years since the S&P500 hit 1500.

Yep, 3.3% real returns when including dividends for getting close to 2 decades. When someone forecasts 3% (or whatever) real returns for the next 10 years they're saying we're in the middle of the lowest 30-years returns in US history by a substantial amount. The previous lowest was 3.5% for 30-yea...
by Carlos Danger
Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "You're More Internationally Diversified Than You (Probably) Realize"
Replies: 139
Views: 9792

Re: "You're More Internationally Diversified Than You (Probably) Realize"

Looking at demographic trends going forward is not looking in the rear view mirror.

The cake has been baked, and the numbers aren't made up. We KNOW what the demographic future over the next few decades is for China, Korea, Western Europe, etc.
by Carlos Danger
Fri Feb 22, 2019 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bonds have done well even pre-tax
Replies: 6
Views: 1323

Re: Muni bonds have done well even pre-tax

What is the rate now? Higher than what it will be for most of the next decade AT LEAST imho. We're not likely getting back to "normal" anytime soon, and I believe it won't be long before the Fed is cutting again. We refused to endure the pain we were due post-crash, we recklessly engaged in QE and ...
by Carlos Danger
Fri Feb 22, 2019 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "You're More Internationally Diversified Than You (Probably) Realize"
Replies: 139
Views: 9792

Re: "You're More Internationally Diversified Than You (Probably) Realize"

Honestly I'm getting pretty close to ditching international. Long term treasuries are far less correlated with the U.S. stock market, and oh by the way perform admirably vs. international equities. Looking at portfolio visualizer, VUSTX has outperformed VTRIX and underperformed VWIGX by a mere .08% ...
by Carlos Danger
Tue Feb 12, 2019 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 207
Views: 12634

Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Grayson Moorhead Securities' flag-ship fund is now down 1.9% for the year. Not panicking though, I have a fullproof plan to turn things around. We will be increasing our fees, increasing our front-load, and dumping 50% of the additional revenue raised into executive compensation, and the other 50% i...
by Carlos Danger
Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWELX, VWINX, or VBIAX ?
Replies: 17
Views: 1581

Re: VWELX, VWINX, or VBIAX ?

Wellesley is 33% of our overall portfolio giving us about a 20% allocation to bonds overall. I do not care for the make-up of the total bond index fund, and in addition to using Wellesley's cheap active management for our bonds, I also get a slice of our portfolio dedicated to mostly reasonably valu...
by Carlos Danger
Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 207
Views: 12634

Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Based on our flagship fund's performance as of late, Grayson Moorhead Securities would like to take this opportunity to point out the positive benefits of diversification and having investments that perform in a fashion that is negatively correlated with the performance of the U.S. stock market.
by Carlos Danger
Tue Jan 22, 2019 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 207
Views: 12634

Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

For all those sad, unfortunate fools who failed to invest their money with Grayson Moorhead Securities while the window to do so was still open, fret not. You can rectify your terrible life choices by investing in the brand new, just launched crypto-currency: GMS-Coin. Gold is yesterday's news and a...
by Carlos Danger
Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 856
Views: 50840

Re: John Bogle has died at age 89

Been on the road and just saw about this.

R.I.P.
by Carlos Danger
Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security for Millennials
Replies: 234
Views: 29460

Re: Social Security for Millennials

When did the change in generations occur? I WAS a Gen Xer, until someone decided I'm a millenial apparently? I always though it was 15 year time periods 1945-1964 = Baby Boomers 1965-1984 = Gen X 1985-2004 = Millenials 2005-2024 = Gen Z At any rate, whatever I am, I don't count on social security, a...
by Carlos Danger
Tue Jan 01, 2019 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 207
Views: 12634

Re: 2019 Hedge Fund Contest

Grayson Moorhead Securities

Image

Long:

BRK.B
JPM
BAC


Short:

TSLA
ZG
LC


"If the day ever comes that a client knows more about the market than we do, copy him. Do what he does."

-Arthur Grayson
by Carlos Danger
Tue Jan 01, 2019 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cramer touting CD's, MM Funds, and S&P 500 Index on Today Show!
Replies: 16
Views: 2593

Re: Cramer touting CD's, MM Funds, and S&P 500 Index on Today Show!

Jim Cramer has always recommended that investors primarily invest in a broad index fund like an S&P 500 index fund. People just hear what they want to hear, including his critics. I've never bought an individual security based on his thoughts, but I like hearing what he has to say. As someone else h...
by Carlos Danger
Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Talks About His Best & Worst Financial Bets
Replies: 4
Views: 1201

Re: John Bogle Talks About His Best & Worst Financial Bets

Paywalled. Cliff's Notes??? ... Worst Bet: Merging Wellington Management Co. with Thorndike, Doran, Paine & Lewis Inc. Best Bet: Founding the Vanguard S&P 500 index fund ...everything a person needs to know about investing can be put on a 3x5 index card. 1. Own the entire stock market. “The S&P 500...
by Carlos Danger
Sun Nov 11, 2018 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's everyone currently in?
Replies: 93
Views: 8532

Re: What's everyone currently in?

First 2 are in a 403(b). Best available choices. Everything else is in Vanguard IRAs and taxable account. 30% State Street S&P 500 Index Fund 10% TIAA-CREF International Equity Index Fund 33% Vanguard Wellesley 10% Vanguard International Growth 5% Vanguard International Explorer 5% Vanguard S&P 600 ...
by Carlos Danger
Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you think of the Tesla craziness?
Replies: 25
Views: 2414

Re: What do you think of the Tesla craziness?

It's certainly entertaining, and I'm rooting for Tesla and Musk with my heart even though my mind thinks I'm watching a slow-motion train wreck.

I have no financial stake in Tesla in any way so I can just enjoy the show.
by Carlos Danger
Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it a sign that a bear market is coming, when most people are afraid that stocks will plummet?
Replies: 42
Views: 2951

Re: Is it a sign that a bear market is coming, when most people are afraid that stocks will plummet?

Top of the dot.com bubble was in March of 2000. Only a little over a month earlier E*trade had this ad for the Superbowl, "Money coming out the Wazoo." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oftjwYmlfoA It seems to me that the market crashes when everyone thinks the party will never end. Then it does. I c...
by Carlos Danger
Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market decline in 2019 ?
Replies: 73
Views: 7289

Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Maybe. Maybe not. I'm not selling anything even if it gets to the point where I believe the storm is on the horizon because I'm comfortable with our asset allocation, but when the next bear market comes, I'll engage in "market timing" by tightening up my consumer spending so I can invest more while ...
by Carlos Danger
Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Case for buying individual Stocks as 10% of portfolio
Replies: 43
Views: 3735

Re: Case for buying individual Stocks as 10% of portfolio

My case for doing so is that it actually allows me to be simplified and limit expenses. The other 90% of our investments across all accounts are in a simple, low expense 4-fund portfolio. I used to use ETFs, and had quite the hodge-podge. This sector, that sector, this industry, that industry. All w...
by Carlos Danger
Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did Jeff Bezos just pull a Henry Ford?
Replies: 32
Views: 2715

Re: Did Jeff Bezos just pull a Henry Ford?

If Amazon is successful in getting a minimum wage increase in the United States, will that have a much broader effect on the sale of consumer products? The answer is absolutely yes. A national minimum wage hike would be huge for Amazon's sales. Lower class and lower middle class spend essentially e...
by Carlos Danger
Sun Sep 30, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015
Replies: 62
Views: 2754

Re: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015

It's great that Shiller continues to teach/do academic work instead of living on a yacht since he's a multi-billionaire.

He is a multi-billionaire, right? I mean, afterall, he accurately sees/forecasts bubbles.
by Carlos Danger
Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?
Replies: 148
Views: 19313

Re: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?

Yes we should stay in crazytown OP, but you should have only had one foot in in the first place and should be diversified. I am comfortable with our asset allocation. And if that light at the end of the tunnel IS another train, I'll engage in that big no-no of "market timing" and cheaply scoop up as...
by Carlos Danger
Thu Sep 27, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't I read about this strategy more? [12-month moving average, momentum]
Replies: 110
Views: 15221

Re: Why don't I read about this strategy more? It seems to beat everything else

In fact a simple Google search shows that he [Meb Faber]was a sub advisor on that fund and left to start a similar ETF which he still runs: https://www.etf.com/sections/daily-etf-watch/22291-daily-etf-watch-faber-drops-gtaa-role.html https://i.postimg.cc/SKRcYZsH/GMOM.png Unfair comparison of cours...
by Carlos Danger
Thu Sep 27, 2018 11:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Access to WSJ denied
Replies: 11
Views: 1543

Re: Access to WSJ denied

They did you a favor.

Try bogleheads.org instead.
by Carlos Danger
Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't I read about this strategy more? [12-month moving average, momentum]
Replies: 110
Views: 15221

Re: Why don't I read about this strategy more? It seems to beat everything else

... Why not simply buy an index (like S&P500) when the 12 month moving average is flat or going up, and sell when it is going down. I don't believe I can predict the future at all, but I know for sure I can tell which way a line is going on a graph over a period of time. The key distinction here is...
by Carlos Danger
Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Other Portfolios that aren't 3 fund
Replies: 59
Views: 9235

Re: Other Portfolios that aren't 3 fund

I recently simplified our overall portfolio across 403b, Roth IRAs, and taxable, jettisoned all ETFs save for VIOO, and made Wellesley a core holding. State Street S&P 500 Index Fund 45% Vanguard Wellesley 35% Vanguard S&P 600 Small Cap 5% Vanguard International Explorer 5% Handful of Individual Sto...
by Carlos Danger
Tue Sep 25, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help with 401K allocation - Vanguard Total Stock Index out of 401K options
Replies: 10
Views: 822

Re: Help with 401K allocation - Vanguard Total Stock Index out of 401K options

Just quickly eye-balling this I figured 80/20 S&P 500/Russell 2000 Growth would do the trick. Plugged it into portfolio visualizer. Standard deviation within 3 tenths, Sharpe ratio difference of only 1 100th and Sortino 5 100ths. Used Russell 2000 growth etf instead of mutual fund version because da...
by Carlos Danger
Tue Sep 25, 2018 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DIYers Taking a Toll
Replies: 50
Views: 6683

Re: DIYers Taking a Toll

He warned me that anyone can do well with index investing in a bull market but when/if it changes indexers will get crushed. He's right, the next time we see a market like 2000-2002 or 2008-2009, or a day like the one that occured in Oct. 1987, index investments will get crushed. But so will active...
by Carlos Danger
Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?
Replies: 152
Views: 12497

Re: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?

We have no bonds. My plan is to see where we are at age 55, and perhaps move heavily into bonds, or perhaps not. I save/invest based on an extremely conservative assumption that our asset mix (which is growth oriented and has and should continue to outpace the market slightly) will produce only 5% a...
by Carlos Danger
Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [A Boglehead explains the simplest way to manage your money - alternative viewpoint]
Replies: 45
Views: 4907

Re: [A Boglehead explains the simplest way to manage your money - alternative viewpoint]

"Simple" depends on the particular person. We have 3 funds in a 403(b), 10 ETFs in our Vanguard IRAs and Taxable Account as well as some shares in 5 individual companies. If I suffer an untimely/early death, I have instructions written up for the Mrs. to go to one fund in the 403(b) (S&P 500 Index f...
by Carlos Danger
Sun Sep 09, 2018 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Website to analyze investment portfolios?
Replies: 5
Views: 811

Re: Website to analyze investment portfolios?

Portfolio Visualizer This site will give you all that OP. Large vs. Mid vs. Small Cap, International vs. Domestic, Sectors, Sharpe Ratio, Sortino, Market correlation, etc, etc., etc. For some of that stuff, you'll have to click on the "metrics" tab after your input all your holdings and analyze: ht...
by Carlos Danger
Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 110715

Re: Is international investing necessary at all?

Likely not necessary, but why take on the risk? What if the U.S. experiences some "lost decades" during your prime investing/saving years? I understand where you're coming from. My natural inclination is to mostly avoid international. I loathe putting money into VXUS. It's boring, it has thus far un...
by Carlos Danger
Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does market timing have to be perfect to be effective?
Replies: 35
Views: 2680

Re: Does market timing have to be perfect to be effective?

I've back tested some plans I've thought about. Getting out at the right time or reasonably close to it is actually pretty easy in a lot of cases. It's the getting back in that's the tricky part. Even if you get out at the right time, or reasonably close to it, you can very quickly erase the benefit...
by Carlos Danger
Sun Sep 02, 2018 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 101
Views: 12301

Re: Call the Top!

Image


Image
by Carlos Danger
Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sneaky ways to get into closed funds (e.g. POAGX in TN 529)
Replies: 32
Views: 3692

Re: Sneaky ways to get into closed funds (e.g. POAGX in TN 529)

If one is confident their stock picks will continue to outperform the market, there's nothing preventing one from simply imitating them.

http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/ ... SA&t=POAGX
by Carlos Danger
Mon Aug 27, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 335
Views: 57835

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

I'm from the future OP, the year 2018. DON'T DO IT!
by Carlos Danger
Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock options inducing employee sabotage
Replies: 14
Views: 1729

Re: Stock options inducing employee sabotage

Or they could just buy put options, do nothing illegal, and wait for the regular monthly Chipotle mass poisoning. How the heck that company keeps going strong is beyond me. If I was Moe's, I'd be running TV ads that look like made for TV infomercials. In black and white, woman keels over holding her...
by Carlos Danger
Wed Aug 22, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What non-Vanguard ETFs will you be looking to buy?
Replies: 62
Views: 7381

Re: What non-Vanguard ETFs will you be looking to buy?

In our portfolio I use: IHI - iShares Medical Devices Have to admit, IHI intrigues me. :beer It's hard not to like. Fared no worse than the S&P in 2008, yet has significantly outperformed during good times. The firms at the top of the ETF are good companies, yet unlike FAANG are not already a massi...