Search found 115 matches

by Carlos Danger
Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...
Replies: 77
Views: 4138

Re: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...

Legos. Light-weight Not fragile Boxes have full-color artwork so they display nicely Easy to sell Easy to recognize and pick sets that will increase in value If your portfolio does well enough you never need or want to sell any, they're something that would be enjoyable for your grandchildren to hav...
by Carlos Danger
Wed Oct 09, 2019 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: INTERNATIONALS 20% of Equities or 20% of Portfolio?
Replies: 57
Views: 3559

Re: INTERNATIONALS 20% of Equities or 20% of Portfolio?

There's no rationale for a total world market-cap allocation to international other than wanting to match the total world market. Aside from the positives of holding international equities, mainly the (limited) diversification benefit, there are negatives like currency risk, rule of law risk, etc. I...
by Carlos Danger
Sun Sep 29, 2019 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ken Fisher wants you to know that he cares...
Replies: 49
Views: 4466

Re: Ken Fisher wants you to know that he cares...

What's the problem? Are people supposed to bury their heads in the sand and ignore reality for the sake of feelings? He's not responsible for what other human beings find convincing. That's on them. It would be inappropriate for him to run ads that he knows are less effective for the sake of some so...
by Carlos Danger
Sat Sep 28, 2019 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Uber IPO
Replies: 38
Views: 3127

Re: Uber IPO

It was tempting to invest in a taxi company that loses a Billion dollars a quarter, but I managed to resist the siren's song of Uber. Oh wait, I forgot, you hail your ride with your phone, so it's a "tech" company. Just like Dominion Energy, seeing as I can pay my electricity and gas bill on my phon...
by Carlos Danger
Sat Sep 28, 2019 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds are bad because in tough times traders sell a lot?
Replies: 30
Views: 2594

Re: Index Funds are bad because in tough times traders sell a lot?

People will sell equities when things turn south, and prices will fall?

Does your friend have a paid newsletter I can subscribe to? Riveting stuff.
by Carlos Danger
Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?
Replies: 246
Views: 29692

Re: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?

10% allocation in gold in a falling inflation environment? How exactly is that a good idea? 10% Gold allocation in a falling real interest rate environment , (which has been brought about, in part, by falling inflation and growth). Great idea. Gold is not an inflation hedge . Not sure why that myth...
by Carlos Danger
Thu Sep 26, 2019 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?
Replies: 246
Views: 29692

Re: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?

Age: Late 30s Asset Allocation: 50% Equities, 40% Bonds (heavy on extended duration treasuries), 10% Gold Why: Growth and inflation are slowing and have been since last fall. Q3 2018 was the cycle peak and the time to shift. Bonds and Gold are crushing equities over that time period. Will move equit...
by Carlos Danger
Sun Sep 08, 2019 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The most annoying thing about other drivers
Replies: 8
Views: 772

Re: The most annoying thing about other drivers

The most annoying thing to me are the idiots who like to cluster together on the highway. I call them idiot clusters. Creative, I know. Cruising along, carefree, then I point out to the Mrs. that we've got an idiot cluster ahead. For some reason sheep feel the need to herd together. So then it's 5-1...
by Carlos Danger
Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott on value investing and the Achilles' heel of market cap indexing (Morningstar podcast)
Replies: 62
Views: 6043

Re: Rob Arnott on value investing and the Achilles' heel of market cap indexing (Morningstar podcast)

Forester wrote:
Sat Aug 24, 2019 6:03 am


Rob Arnott discusses . . . how passive indexes are prone to holding on to large megacap stocks with a high chance of subsequent underperformance.
Apparently so is he. Overweight Apple and Exxon? :oops: I think I'll stick with the index.
by Carlos Danger
Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 248
Views: 28788

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

Portfolio 1 is 40% S&P 500, 20% International Value, 40% Total Bond Portfolio 2 takes the 40% bond down to 30% and adds 10% gold. Equal monthly contributions, rebalanced annualy. The portfolio with gold wins since 1986. Barely. Virtually identical. I'm a long term treasury guy, and in that case addi...
by Carlos Danger
Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 248
Views: 28788

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

Gold is a high yield asset. It yields nothing, which is quite lofty these days.
by Carlos Danger
Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron'
Replies: 101
Views: 10910

Re: GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron'

Actionable? If he's right, it could be the exogenous event that brings on the next crash. GE is rated BBB. (It doesn't deserve to be, it should be rated as junk). If he's right, and proven so, even the hacks at the ratings agencies will have no choice but to downgrade GE to junk. Guess what pension...
by Carlos Danger
Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year treasury yield drops below 2% for the first time in history
Replies: 41
Views: 5458

Re: 30 year treasury yield drops below 2% for the first time in history

I cant imagine anyone buys 30 year treasuries yielding 1.99% to actually hold for 30 years. Obviously, interest rates will go up some time in the next 30 years. It's hardly obvious. The current yield of just below 2% on a 30 year treasury, 30 years from now, could look lofty. I don't know what the ...
by Carlos Danger
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard ongoing glitches, August 12-13, 2019]
Replies: 256
Views: 17019

Re: [Vanguard price glitches, incorrect market info for August 12, 2019]

drzzzzz wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:17 am
IS anyone having difficulty getting onto Vanguard's website this morning on a chromebook or laptop? The site is just spinning
Yes. Some trouble. Was able to eventually log in.
by Carlos Danger
Sun Aug 11, 2019 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.
Replies: 249
Views: 22392

Re: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.

It's coming IMO, only a matter of time.

There's a reason Powell used the language "effective lower bound" where he and other Fed chairs once used the language "zero lower bound." And that was in public.

In private, depending on who you believe, fed members have allegedly discussed the possibility.
by Carlos Danger
Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do dividends still exist?
Replies: 204
Views: 12514

Re: Why do dividends still exist?

I'd prefer the tax inefficiency of being paid a dividend, and deciding myself whether or where to reinvest it, over the stupidity and/or greed of the company buying back its own stock while the price is high.

Of course I index, so I get all the good and bad management in the corporate world.
by Carlos Danger
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone running 50/50 stock bond who is younger?
Replies: 45
Views: 4518

Re: Is anyone running 50/50 stock bond who is younger?

Under 40
35% Janus Intermediate Term Bond Fund (403b) / Vanguard Extended Duration Treasuries (IRAs)
5% Gold (IRAs)

We're moving forward, not backwards. The 2020s are next, not the 1980s. US Treasury yields aren't low, they're high.
by Carlos Danger
Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12340
Views: 2123314

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

My stocks may be in freefall, but my long dated treasuries and gold are not. Also thanks for the "BEARISH WEDGE FORMATION" chart above. Could always use a good laugh. What we know is that we're in an earnings recession, and the comps are only going to get worse going forward in Q3 since Q3 last year...
by Carlos Danger
Fri Aug 02, 2019 7:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Best-in-Class ETF recommendations for Merriman Ultimate Buy & Hold Portfolio (March 2019)
Replies: 53
Views: 7417

Re: New Best-in-Class ETF recommendations for Merriman Ultimate Buy & Hold Portfolio (March 2019)

Should be renamed to Ultimate Busywork Portfolio I have to agree: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&initialAmount=1000&annualOperation=1&annualAdjustment=1000&inflationAdjusted=false&ann...
by Carlos Danger
Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Complacency
Replies: 77
Views: 6497

Re: Boglehead Complacency

What drawdown? Our portfolio was up again today, ever so slightly. The 60% in the S&P 500 and Total World Stock Market went down, but the 40% in extended duration treasuries and gold went up way more. Times like these are great for 3, 4, 5 fund Boglehead diversified portfolios. You have to settle fo...
by Carlos Danger
Tue Jul 30, 2019 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A low-cost 5 fund Boglehead portfolio
Replies: 108
Views: 14873

Re: A low-cost 5 fund Boglehead portfolio

There are many ways to skin a cat. :sharebeer Our 5-fund portolio, which is less than ideal given that I'm forced to use STFAX (State Street S&P 500 Index) and JAFLX (Janus Intermediate Term Bond Fund) in a crummy 403(b) plan, has performed almost identically through the 2008-2009 crash and subseque...
by Carlos Danger
Wed Jul 24, 2019 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a High Tech Bubble in S&P 500 & Total Market?
Replies: 152
Views: 10661

Re: Is there a High Tech Bubble in S&P 500 & Total Market?

Amazon is the new Sears & Roebuck, and that's not even how they make their real bacon. Amazon web services is. They're the new Sears & Roebuck AND the new Union Pacific Railroad or US steel all in one. You wanted to sell product, you needed Sears. You wanted to make product, you needed US Steel. You...
by Carlos Danger
Sat Jul 20, 2019 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Zero % down mortgages. Are we going to see 2008 again?
Replies: 27
Views: 3029

Re: Zero % down mortgages. Are we going to see 2008 again?

Nope. There are things being done I think unwise, but housing now is nothing like housing 2000s. We'll likely see something worse than 2008 though in my investing lifetime though. Housing bubble, bad housing loans, idiotic financial instruments then. Commercial real estate bubble, bad commercial rea...
by Carlos Danger
Wed Jul 17, 2019 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Primecap Admiral Fund VPMAX
Replies: 27
Views: 6223

Re: Primecap Admiral Fund VPMAX

As a self-centered pessimist, I don't concern myself with active funds that outperform their benchmark since they'd immediately start underperforming once I bought them.
by Carlos Danger
Wed Jul 17, 2019 8:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you care about your home appreciating?
Replies: 91
Views: 5496

Re: Do you care about your home appreciating?

No. We bought it to live in. We bought it for the fancy kitchen, the space for guests, the large yard, etc., etc. It's not an investment. And, if plans change and we decide we want to move one day, appreciation might price out potential buyers. Houses in this range typically stay on the market for a...
by Carlos Danger
Sat Jul 13, 2019 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Five Nobel Laureates Recommend The Market Portfolio
Replies: 58
Views: 7016

Re: Five Nobel Laureates Recommend The Market Portfolio

Do the five laureates (and the OP) share a common definition of “the market portfolio”? Doubt it. The Boglehead 3 Fund Portolio sure doesn't accurately represent a "market portfolio." It's wildly tilted. The actual market portfolio of publicly traded stocks and bonds would be something like roughly...
by Carlos Danger
Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1876
Views: 194911

Re: S&P 500 hit 3,000 today

ReformedSpender wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:09 pm
And what if it is like 1995?

Got it covered:
wrote:Reactions?

None . . . will stay 60/40 because I could be dead wrong.

I hope it IS like 1995 but I'm a natural pessimist/permabear. 60/40 protects me from myself.
by Carlos Danger
Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1876
Views: 194911

Re: S&P 500 hit 3,000 today

Thoughts? Reactions? Thoughts? We're near the top if not at it. This time is NOT different, once the Fed does actually cut, it's all over but the crying. Idiots gleefully bought in anticipation of and after fed cuts in 2007-2008 too. Reactions? None so far. We're roughly 60/40 (with a splash of gol...
by Carlos Danger
Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excluding International All Together?
Replies: 82
Views: 9766

Re: Excluding International All Together?

I've heavily considered ditching international, and have posted here a few times about my concrete reasons for believing the U.S. will outperform over the next few decades as a whole. But I still have it, because I'm paranoid about being wrong. :happy 100% U.S./S&P 500 for equities in a 403(b). But ...
by Carlos Danger
Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 278
Views: 25016

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Parallels to consider: Early 1990s: "The internet and e-commerce are coming, whether businesses like it or not." 2019: "Blockchain technology is coming, whether businesses like it or not." Valid comparison. Blockchain technology may be the next big thing/world altering technology. I personally thin...
by Carlos Danger
Sat Jun 22, 2019 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 278
Views: 25016

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

until people shift from talking about how great bitcoin is because of its price to talking about how much they love using bitcoin, im not interested in it. i can make/lose a lot of money in lots of dumb ways. bitcoin is just one of many right now. Bitcoin has evolved into a digital store of wealth....
by Carlos Danger
Sat Jun 22, 2019 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?
Replies: 44
Views: 5051

Re: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?

Today's treasury yields could look, 30 years from now, just as attractive as yields from 30 years ago look to us today. Maybe not. But maybe so. Hi Carlos Danger, what would treasury yields need to look like, 30 years from now, in order to be attractive today? NIRP in the future would certainly mak...
by Carlos Danger
Sat Jun 22, 2019 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 278
Views: 25016

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

WELP. Guess I'm not buying myself a new GPU this Christmas. Seems like every time I want to upgrade it takes off again and drives prices through the roof. I don't understand why people continue to eat at Chipotle no matter how many customers they sicken, and I don't understand why people continue to...
by Carlos Danger
Sat Jun 22, 2019 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The End of Passive Investing?
Replies: 55
Views: 5348

Re: The End of Passive Investing?

If you're not roughly 60% total world bond market and 40% total world stock market, you're an active investor who has made a conscious choice to tilt.
by Carlos Danger
Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?
Replies: 44
Views: 5051

Re: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?

The Chair of the Federal Reserve has recently used the language "effective lower bound" where one would have once expected him to use the language "zero lower bound." Words have meaning and I would encourage everyone to pay attention to what Jay Powell says. Today's treasury yields could look, 30 ye...
by Carlos Danger
Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?
Replies: 44
Views: 5051

Re: Next 30 Years for Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio?

I think it's a much more attractive and intelligent portfolio construction for the next 30 years than the past. The market(s) are a chaotic system, and central bank activism over the past decade has introduced a massive new gravitational force into the system.
by Carlos Danger
Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook Libra Cryptocurrency - effect on stocks or bonds?
Replies: 44
Views: 4772

Re: Facebook Libra Cryptocurrency - effect on stocks or bonds?

WWJBDo wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:24 pm

But then again, I thought Uber was a dumb idea too.
You're not alone. I also think a taxi service that loses a Billion dollars per quarter is a dumb idea.
by Carlos Danger
Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond index funds at risk due to BBB investment grade corporate bonds?
Replies: 10
Views: 1090

Re: Bond index funds at risk due to BBB investment grade corporate bonds?

Morningstar says BND is 17% BBB so I guess people who use bond index funds won't get completely wrecked once the fraud of BBB rated corporate debt gets exposed. Anyone who isn't familiar with the gory details of Mortgage-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), and the ratings agen...
by Carlos Danger
Sun Jun 02, 2019 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio For Lottery Winner
Replies: 8
Views: 1407

Re: Portfolio For Lottery Winner

Your feelings betray you OP. I'm going to win that lotto. With that kind of silly money many times what I'd need to live it up for life, I'd go hyper conservative and diversify with stock in Tesla, Beyond Meat, Uber, and that new start-up in San Fran that's following the scooter rental model but wit...
by Carlos Danger
Sat Jun 01, 2019 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: End of 30 yr. Bull run on bonds, what now
Replies: 58
Views: 6951

Re: End of 30 yr. Bull run on bonds, what now

The risk is breakout inflation like 1970s This risk, of course, exists but it is incredibly minimal. Inflation isn't a random act of God, and our demographics presently and in the coming decades are a powerful anti-inflationary force. Think of it this way - drought and devastating wildfires are ris...
by Carlos Danger
Thu May 30, 2019 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Convexity: Why You Shouldn't Fear Bonds With Low Rates
Replies: 68
Views: 7241

Re: Bond Convexity: Why You Shouldn't Fear Bonds With Low Rates

One should also think carefully about whether rates are actually "low." If you put on some late 20th century blinders, then yes, current rates are "low." If you instead think about where we are today and where we are possibly or probably going, consider the current and future state of our economy, c...
by Carlos Danger
Thu May 30, 2019 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!
Replies: 372
Views: 63543

Re: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!

In our Vanguard accounts I use TLT.

In a crummy "OneAmerica" 403(b) plan I use JAFLX (an intermediate term bond fund from Janus), but not by choice. It's literally the only bond "choice" in that trash plan. I'd use long-term treasuries there too if I could.
by Carlos Danger
Tue May 28, 2019 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beat the market with lower risk than the market itself (using leveraged ETFs)
Replies: 32
Views: 3037

Re: Beat the market with lower risk than the market itself (using leveraged ETFs)

Also I love TLT and am super bullish on long-term treasuries/bearish on interest rates but there is no way I'd allow it to reach 40% of my portfolio. Yikes. Talk about risky. You can't back-test a portfolio, and then based on past performance say it's "less risky" than something else. Holding 40% of...
by Carlos Danger
Tue May 28, 2019 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beat the market with lower risk than the market itself (using leveraged ETFs)
Replies: 32
Views: 3037

Re: Beat the market with lower risk than the market itself (using leveraged ETFs)

Aren't leveraged ETFs/funds not viable long-term investments? See link below; their returns decay pretty quickly: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-advisors/082515/why-leveraged-etfs-are-not-longterm-bet.asp Likely correct. But post 2008-2009 Bull Market has created an environment whe...
by Carlos Danger
Mon May 27, 2019 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ Article: Think Before You Fish for Bargains in Chinese Stocks
Replies: 58
Views: 5325

Re: WSJ Article: Think Before You Fish for Bargains in Chinese Stocks

I view Chinese stocks in much the same way I view bitcoin. Others may indeed profit by investing in them. Good for them if they do. I'll take a hard pass. There's plenty of unethical accounting, government interference, fraud, etc., etc. involved with publicly traded corporations in the United State...
by Carlos Danger
Fri May 24, 2019 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here
Replies: 151
Views: 15874

Re: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here

LATE Gen Xer. 60/40 equities/bonds overall asset allocation, and half of the 40 is in long term treasuries instead of just a total bond index. Why learn from mistakes on my own when I can learn from others? I was in grad school when things **** the bed after the dot-com bust. Coincidentally I was ba...
by Carlos Danger
Tue May 21, 2019 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a FAANG ETF?
Replies: 37
Views: 3479

Re: Is there a FAANG ETF?

Funny. Last year I was asking for a fund that holds the entire market *minus* the FAANGs. I would buy this. It does hold FAANG stocks, but an equal weight S&P 500 fund like RSP is a way to beef up your passive index allocation without FAANG stocks skyrocketing to an even larger share of your portfo...
by Carlos Danger
Tue May 21, 2019 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a FAANG ETF?
Replies: 37
Views: 3479

Re: Is there a FAANG ETF?

Another option is QQQ which is mostly large-cap tech stocks from NASDAQ. Yeah, QQQ is 32% "FAANG." I don't know if there any obscure ETFs with a higher share, but of the major ones QQQ has the biggest allocation (as opposed to the various large cap growth ETFs or the S&P itself). IGM is similar to ...
by Carlos Danger
Wed May 15, 2019 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest or Payoff Home
Replies: 38
Views: 3012

Re: Invest or Payoff Home

For me personally, the fear of being homeless would be a greater motivator than the hope of good market returns.

I'd pay off the mortgage 1st and sleep like a baby.
by Carlos Danger
Mon May 13, 2019 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds for growth Vs Bonds for rebalancing
Replies: 7
Views: 626

Re: Bonds for growth Vs Bonds for rebalancing

I personally target long-term treasuries because I want something less correlated with equities, especially in the times that equities are falling like a brick. I'm with you. I prefer TLT over BND. Less correlated with equities & higher return than a bond market index. I don't care about volatility...