Search found 562 matches

by ReformedSpender
Thu Sep 15, 2022 6:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: House AC blowing too cold/hard?
Replies: 17
Views: 5287

Re: House AC blowing too cold/hard?

Thanks for all the replies very much appreciated. It’s my understanding that the AC blows the same temp/speed regardless of temp set on thermostat, although obviously the lower temp the longer it will stay on to get to that temperature inside. I always set it to 73/74 here where it’s in the 90s. What I’m noticing is the actual air coming out of all the vents in the house is blowing about 50% harder and the air coming out is artic cold. After it runs its cycle each room is anywhere from 69-71 degrees (I bought some thermostats). Is there anything that can cause this? I will have someone come hopefully next week but been avoiding due to COVID. Anything I should look at? Anything to look at outside? I don’t think it would be a thermostat issu...
by ReformedSpender
Mon Jun 27, 2022 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scaring away mockingbirds
Replies: 40
Views: 4168

Re: Scaring away mockingbirds

:idea: Cut the tree down :idea:
by ReformedSpender
Thu May 12, 2022 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651502

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Friday the 13th and a full moon.

Look out :beer
by ReformedSpender
Tue Apr 12, 2022 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651502

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

atdharris wrote: Tue Apr 12, 2022 8:17 am Futures up on hopes that inflation has peaked - I guess we can't get much worse than 8.5% YoY
CPI number is under reported. If you look specifically at food, housing, etc, it is significantly greater than 8.5%

Lockdowns in China will only send this number higher in the months to come (IMO).
by ReformedSpender
Tue Mar 15, 2022 5:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stocks in free fall
Replies: 513
Views: 67139

Re: International stocks in free fall

MSCI 30 yr return on China (excluding taxes, fees, etc) quickly approaching 0%.

Image
by ReformedSpender
Mon Mar 07, 2022 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651502

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

So many eager participants willing to catch a falling knife :D

S&P is on its way to sub-4k. Would save some dry powder just in case :wink:

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Thu Feb 24, 2022 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651502

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Would not be surprised to see a small relief rally, however, this is still a sold-to-you market. A lot of distribution occurring. Targeting 38XX to 4000 level on the S&P before calling anything a 'responsible' bottom.

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2022 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 320
Views: 35916

Re: 2022 Hedge Fund contest

Dear shareholders of Wrecked Capital,

Welcome aboard! Rest assured, the fun is just getting started (short Tesla and Apple). Cheers to a prosperous future.

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651502

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

peskypesky wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:24 pm
PowderDay9 wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:41 pm Agreed, we need some bigger drops and for it to stay down for awhile. The US market has been way overvalued for a long time.
Yup. I'm hoping for a full-on depression. Stocks will be so cheap to accumulate.
and you'll accumulate stocks with what money? You've likely lost your job and possibly other prized belongings. Money may be so scarce that you need to ration simply to survive and eat day-to-day in a "full-on depression". Lets be a bit more realistic and considerate...
by ReformedSpender
Mon Jan 10, 2022 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2022 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 320
Views: 35916

Re: 2022 Hedge Fund contest

Wrecked Capital

Short:
Apple (AAPL)
Tesla (TSLA)
by ReformedSpender
Wed Nov 03, 2021 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2119718

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Tesla, Alphabet, Facebook and Nvidia are 26% of the SPY and 50% of the QQQ :shock:

To put that in perspective, Cisco, Intel, Microsoft and Oracle peaked at 15% in the tech bubble...
by ReformedSpender
Thu May 20, 2021 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651502

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Forester wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 8:05 am Return to long-term trend = approx 20% drop to 3,300.

Image
Quite a subjective chart.

Look at the 100 yr chart of the S&P, THAT is long-term. What it shows is that prices can remain elevated above the trend line for a decade or more just like it can remain below for the a similar duration.

The take away? Nobody knows nuttin

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Thu Jan 14, 2021 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!
Replies: 574
Views: 71995

Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

52 week high for VXUS today!

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Thu Jan 14, 2021 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case for international
Replies: 40
Views: 3666

Re: Case for international

VXUS just made a fresh 52 week high today. Here's to many more

:beer :beer
by ReformedSpender
Tue Jan 12, 2021 7:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Got a job offer for $840k/yr. Should I come out of retirement?
Replies: 256
Views: 46368

Re: Got a job offer for $840k/yr. Should I come out of retirement?

No real advice other than the choice will ultimately come down to you.

Congrats on winning the game!
:beer
by ReformedSpender
Mon Jan 11, 2021 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651502

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:29 am BTC crashing from 40K to 34K just like that. Crazy.
And like anything else BTC, it could be 50k by the end of the week :D
by ReformedSpender
Mon Jan 11, 2021 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munger warns of lost decade for investing (2021-2031)
Replies: 73
Views: 11265

Re: Munger warns of lost decade for investing (2021-2031)

tvubpwcisla wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 5:26 am I hope he is right, as it will favor the patient investor who buys and never sells with accumulation at the very low and predicted lost decade pricing!

:mrgreen:

:moneybag
Agreed. Let the accumulators accumulate

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Fri Jan 08, 2021 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2119718

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

ksualum wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:24 am
ReformedSpender wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:21 am Some indices charts are down right scary - almost vertical and well above their moving averages.

Not calling for a crash or even a correction, but market is priced to p-e-r-f-e-c-t-i-o-n. Another lost decade would not surprise me.
I definitely see that side of things. But we haven't even gotten out of this pandemic nor has our economic recovery really even started. I think there are arguments on both sides . . .
If market is forward looking, wouldn't you argue the economic recovery is being priced in?
by ReformedSpender
Fri Jan 08, 2021 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Stocks: Is anyone else facepalming right now?
Replies: 48
Views: 5657

Re: US Stocks: Is anyone else facepalming right now?

MindBogler wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 5:40 pm
3funder wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 5:34 pm No; I'm annoyed that the market has so much escape velocity. I just hate investing at such high valuations (even though I have the discipline to stick with my long-term plan). The only reason I mentioned the NASDAQ is because it is perhaps the frothiest part of the market.
This isn't even a real melt-up, yet. If we revisit '98-'00 just wait.
Are there not already similarities? Market cap to GDP is trading at its highest level ever, the vertical rise in index charts look similar, valuations of recent unprofitable IPO's has been similar, etc.

The mania is here imo
by ReformedSpender
Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2119718

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Some indices charts are down right scary - almost vertical and well above their moving averages.

Not calling for a crash or even a correction, but market is priced to p-e-r-f-e-c-t-i-o-n. Another lost decade would not surprise me.
by ReformedSpender
Tue Jan 05, 2021 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!
Replies: 574
Views: 71995

Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

I'll sure miss threads like;

"Why international again"

"Going 100% US Equities"

...but not really
:beer
by ReformedSpender
Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651502

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Oh dear!

We are back to levels not seen since... *checks notes*...Dec 24th

:greedy
by ReformedSpender
Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest
Replies: 664
Views: 33846

Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

After running a multitude of algorithms, I am predicting the S&P ends 2021 at

4,127.05

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Tue Nov 24, 2020 10:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pandemic reduced our spending by 30% - How about you?
Replies: 119
Views: 9890

Re: Pandemic reduced our spending by 30% - How about you?

Spending up about 75% this year, started building a home gym that I've put off for some time. WFH pretty much forced that decision

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best gym headphones
Replies: 31
Views: 2973

Re: Best gym headphones

Sony XM3 noise cancelling

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Mon Nov 09, 2020 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) - Good Time to Jump In?
Replies: 49
Views: 10281

Re: Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) - Good Time to Jump In?

VDE (Vanguard energy) up +15% today :shock:
by ReformedSpender
Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) - Good Time to Jump In?
Replies: 49
Views: 10281

Re: Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) - Good Time to Jump In?

tibbitts wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:51 am As far as I know VDE is domestic equities only, so the problem would be you then have to choose the ex-US equivalent for half (or whatever) of your investment. Otherwise you have two bets, not one.
and it's massively overweight in XOM (Exxon) which may or may not be the next General Electric
by ReformedSpender
Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) - Good Time to Jump In?
Replies: 49
Views: 10281

Re: Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) - Good Time to Jump In?

Cornflakey wrote: Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:47 pm VDE is down to $73, approx 26% from 52-week high and almost half its $140 all time high a few years back in 2014. VDE has not been this cheap since 2009.

Realize oil is in a bear market but given this would be a buy and hold investment for the next 20+ years....

Also pays relatively juicy dividends. Seems like a no-brainer to me.

Any great reasons not to jump in? Thanks for your insights!

https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/VDE
OP, any update on your venture here?
by ReformedSpender
Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Energy & Oil
Replies: 91
Views: 8186

Re: Vanguard Energy & Oil

Sectors 10 year average returns:

Tech (VGT): +18.94%

Energy (VDE): -5.20%

Real Estate (VNQ): +7.64%

Consumer Staples (VDD): +11.03%

Health Care (VHT): +15.34%

Financials (VFH): +9.15%

Industrials VIS): +11.15%

Maybe energy will have its day again, or maybe not...

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where do you buy coffee beans?
Replies: 200
Views: 22150

Re: Where do you buy coffee beans?

Burlap and Bean
Turks Head Coffee
Island Vintage Coffee
Maui Coffee Roasters

and many others
:beer
by ReformedSpender
Tue Sep 08, 2020 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AMZN & AAPL - time to bail?
Replies: 196
Views: 23889

Re: AMZN & AAPL - time to bail?

atdharris wrote: Tue Sep 08, 2020 8:40 am Depends on your situation. I still hold Apple and Amazon in my taxable account, but the capital gains I'd be on the hook for paying if I sell outweigh the benefit I'll receive from selling them. I don't think either company will fall apart any time soon
I never understood comments like this. Big capital gains tax means one made big profit...not a bad thing. What was your thought process/reasoning for buying them originally?
by ReformedSpender
Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4651502

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Stef wrote: Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:30 am The hell? What's happening?
Prices can go down just as they can go up
by ReformedSpender
Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any car enthusiasts? (or soon to be)
Replies: 142
Views: 12435

Re: Any car enthusiasts? (or soon to be)

Dream car is a Dodge Viper. Currently money is earmarked for a new house, however, it is fair game after that.

IMO, if you are meeting your investment goals (retirement accounts, 529's, etc) then treat yourself, within reason, regardless of net worth. In the end, you only have one life to live

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market will be at all time high by year-end
Replies: 234
Views: 28695

Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

cusetownusa wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:48 am
ReformedSpender wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:46 am To be fair, you stated ON 12/31/2020 you would revisit this thread. A lot could happen in the next 4 months and change

:beer
He said the market it will reach a new all time high BY 12/31/2020...didn't say anything about it staying at an all-time high until 12/31/2020. And that he would revisit this thread on 12/31/2020 to post about it the genius he is. lol

He seems to have the first part correct, now he just needs to revisit this thread on 12/31/20 and he will have the second prediction correct as well.
We're making the same statement...
by ReformedSpender
Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2119718

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

F-R-O-T-H-Y
by ReformedSpender
Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market will be at all time high by year-end
Replies: 234
Views: 28695

Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

To be fair, you stated ON 12/31/2020 you would revisit this thread. A lot could happen in the next 4 months and change

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rule of 72
Replies: 21
Views: 3186

Rule of 72

Interesting analysis posted by Ben Carlson via twitter;

"Annual income earned on $100k in a savings account:

1996 - $5,000

2000 - $6,000

2006 - $4,510

Now - $280

Based on the rule of 72, I estimate it will take forever to double your $$$ in a savings acct"


Image

Source:
https://twitter.com/awealthofcs/status/ ... 2194121728
by ReformedSpender
Thu Aug 06, 2020 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My gym is reopening - are you going back to yours?
Replies: 42
Views: 2465

Re: My gym is reopening - are you going back to yours?

Yes

Wear a mask, social distance, wipe equipment down before and after, keep clean your hands, bring your own water.

If anything, this is the cleanest most gyms have ever been
by ReformedSpender
Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chest Freezers
Replies: 14
Views: 1809

Chest Freezers

Going on half a year with this pandemic and finding an outlet with chest freezers in stock is proving harder than finding in stock TP earlier this year, nearly impossible. Anyone have any leads on availability from major brands (GE, Frigidaire, Whirlpool, etc)?

Thanks! :beer
by ReformedSpender
Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coffee storage
Replies: 42
Views: 4690

Re: Coffee storage

Airscape containers and store in a cool, dark, dry place
by ReformedSpender
Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 306
Views: 34501

Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

ReformedSpender wrote: Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:04 pm Wrecked Capital is astonished to see several hedge funds going long TSLA and AAPL at these valuations :shock:


..but opposing views is what makes the market a market. Good luck to all :beer
This post didn't age well lol :D
by ReformedSpender
Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $2.3 trillion from Fed, unemployment, etc.
Replies: 36
Views: 3556

Re: $2.3 trillion from Fed, unemployment, etc.

We are truly in unprecedented times
by ReformedSpender
Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 47037

Re: Lets predict the bottom of this dip/recession

The first thread attempt on this topic wasn’t enough?
by ReformedSpender
Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 6.65 million new unemployment [April 2]
Replies: 35
Views: 4039

Re: 6.65 million new unemployment [April 2]

At this time, CBO's economic forecast updated today does not assume a V-shaped recovery. Unemployment could be at 9% at the end of 2021 given the effects of business closures.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56314?u ... 2_14:30:00
by ReformedSpender
Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 206
Views: 25687

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

Ocean77 wrote: Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:13 am Just be patient. The market is working as fast as it can! In just about one month, it already retraced back one entire year. In my view, it will have to go back at least to 2016 levels. At the current pace (one month/year), we may get there by June or so.
Certain markets are already there or worse

Small Caps - early 2016 levels
Dow Industrial - late 2016
International - late 2016
Energy - early 2000's. Nearly 20 years!
by ReformedSpender
Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 392236

Re: Coronavirus and the market

stocknoob4111 wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:57 am I see the market take 4-5 years to regain the ATH. I think we will bottom around 2000 on the SPX, just my guess.
If one believes the ripple effect of COVID-19 is equal or greater than the Tech Bubble or GFC, an open mind (and lots of patience) for a recovery may be warranted .
by ReformedSpender
Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coronavirus Movie Suggestions
Replies: 104
Views: 8576

Re: Coronavirus Movie Suggestions

The Big short!
by ReformedSpender
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard Treasury Money Market yield so high?
Replies: 196
Views: 65254

Re: Why is Vanguard Treasury Money Market yield so high?

AE81 wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:56 pm I won’t be surprised if Vanguard closes the fund to new investors (again).
Agreed, but what difference does it make when the yield will be zero, or dare I say, even negative :shock: