Search found 354 matches

by ReformedSpender
Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!
Replies: 104
Views: 9217

Re: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!

Stay the course cus nobody knows nuttin' :beer


Image
by ReformedSpender
Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!
Replies: 104
Views: 9217

Re: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!

Oy vey. Yes, it has FINALLY inverted. Sit back and relax... Unless of course your one of the many BH's with a 100% US equity allocation and little to no emergency fund. Maybe you should buckle up :D :P Joking aside, do you realize AFTER the yield curve inverted in 1994, the S&P 500 gained 41.5% over...
by ReformedSpender
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: this time it's different
Replies: 70
Views: 6492

Re: this time it's different

KlangFool wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:45 am

feh,

1) Let's say that is true, why would invest in oversea and EM would be better? They would be in the worst shape.

KlangFool
And you know this how?
by ReformedSpender
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11678
Views: 2011058

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

We may be plunging towards a black swan event- an equity market with no bottom. I sold all equities in Jan2018 and predicted DOW 16,000. Now I think I was wrong. It's going to be far worse than that. This market has been propped up and managed for years now. I think it's over. I'm in short term tre...
by ReformedSpender
Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11678
Views: 2011058

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

SouthernFIRE wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:44 am
ReformedSpender wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:41 am
andronikus wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:52 pm
TaxingAccount wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:18 pm
10yr yield is down 6% today
New record I think (for one day)
Down 6.5% currently today. Treasuries getting smoked...

:shock:
You mean Treasuries are smoking...prices and yields move inversely.
Yes, correct lol

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11678
Views: 2011058

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

andronikus wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:52 pm
TaxingAccount wrote:
Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:18 pm
10yr yield is down 6% today
New record I think (for one day)
Down 6.5% currently today. Treasuries getting smoked...

:shock:
by ReformedSpender
Mon Aug 05, 2019 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will stocks be cheap again in your lifetime?
Replies: 33
Views: 3718

Re: Will stocks be cheap again in your lifetime?

Stocks should be cheaper today then they were on Friday :D

S&P down 1.5%
DOW down 1.4%
NAS down 2.1%
by ReformedSpender
Mon Jul 29, 2019 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks
Replies: 241
Views: 16503

Re: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks

venkman wrote:
Mon Jul 29, 2019 12:12 am
"Nobody knows nothin'. Except that you don't need international stocks. That's totally knowable."
lol

:mrgreen:
by ReformedSpender
Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much house to buy?
Replies: 14
Views: 1199

Re: How much house to buy?

msk wrote:
Thu Jul 18, 2019 5:24 am
home should not be worth more than 3x single income or 2.5x combined income, regardless of interest rates, etc.
Depending where you live, that guidance is getting harder and harder to comply. Home prices have drastically outpaced wages/salaries. 4-5x+ income can be quite common
by ReformedSpender
Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1409
Views: 137901

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

While the market is up ~20% YTD and it might feel like a never ending rally, since October 2018, the S&P is up just 3%.

Perspective
:beer
by ReformedSpender
Fri Jul 12, 2019 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Timing the market
Replies: 28
Views: 2002

Re: Timing the market

lostdog wrote:
Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:58 pm
Time in the market is better than timing the market.
/End of thread

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard Treasury Money Market yield so high?
Replies: 103
Views: 25729

Re: Why is Vanguard Treasury Money Market yield so high?

Treasuries have been ticking back up the past few days and VUSXX will follow suit. Not losing sleep over 0.05%

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1409
Views: 137901

Re: S&P 500 hit 3,000 today

Thoughts? Reactions? Thoughts? We're near the top if not at it. This time is NOT different, once the Fed does actually cut, it's all over but the crying. Idiots gleefully bought in anticipation of and after fed cuts in 2007-2008 too. And what if it is like 1995? Rates were cut by 25 bps in the summ...
by ReformedSpender
Wed Jul 10, 2019 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1409
Views: 137901

Re: S&P 500 hit 3,000 today

anon_investor wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 9:15 am
Tell me when it gets to 4,000 :greedy
S&P was at 2,000 just three short years ago. Here's to 4,000 in short order

:mrgreen: :beer
by ReformedSpender
Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1409
Views: 137901

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Stinky wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:55 am
This morning, S&P 500 index has crossed 3,000 for the first time ever.

Anyone know what’s causing the S&P to soar today?
Powell's congressional testimony
by ReformedSpender
Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and INTL Returns
Replies: 18
Views: 2164

Re: US and INTL Returns

jibantik wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:22 pm
BUY THE HAYSTACK. It is literally that simple.
/End of thread
:beer
by ReformedSpender
Sun Jul 07, 2019 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle says investors don't need to own international stocks​
Replies: 42
Views: 4535

Re: John Bogle says investors don't need to own international stocks​

Here we go again...perpetual recency bias imo

International has outperformed before and it WILL outperform again.

stan1 wrote:
Sun Jul 07, 2019 9:04 am

Let me ask this, though. Would you recommend all US to a grandchild in their 20s?
Diversify, diversify, diversify

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Mon Jul 01, 2019 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1409
Views: 137901

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Stinky wrote:
Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:59 am


There’s a good chance that we’ll touch both the high and the low for the month before the end of trading today.
LOL, touché

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Thu Jun 27, 2019 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excluding International All Together?
Replies: 82
Views: 9439

Re: Excluding International All Together?

International allocation has been debated ad nauseum on this board and may be the most contentious issue that gets regularly discussed here, with strongly held opinions by those in both camps.. There are some very long threads about the issue; If you search the board a bit you'll find the threads a...
by ReformedSpender
Thu Jun 27, 2019 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excluding International All Together?
Replies: 82
Views: 9439

Re: Excluding International All Together?

Here we go again... Can one of the many other US v ex-US threads just be “pinned” to the top of the board? This. For the love of all that is good and just... These threads never get anywhere. Aren't topics of this nature, in essence, the intent of this forum as a whole? :confused If you don't like ...
by ReformedSpender
Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11678
Views: 2011058

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

S&P down almost -1% currently. Consider this a courtesy "bump" for the thread, things might just be warming up :D
by ReformedSpender
Thu Jun 20, 2019 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1409
Views: 137901

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Well, since 12/24/2018 or about 6 months, so yep, it is the longest so far this year. lol Some Fun facts: Rates were cut by 25 bps in the summer of 1995. Not only was the S&P 500 at a record high, but the index was already up 20% for the year. The market preceded to return an average of 27% annuali...
by ReformedSpender
Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good times: 2008 vs Now
Replies: 145
Views: 15126

Re: Good times: 2008 vs Now

cuendillar wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:34 pm
Since living through not one, not two, but three crappy financial periods (70's, 80's, 2008-09)
Were you no longer with us in '00-'01?

:confused
by ReformedSpender
Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1409
Views: 137901

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

ReformedSpender wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:18 pm
Lets agree to temper this thread until we officially make new ATH's. We currently trading where we were ~18 months ago.

Keeping it real
:beer
Looks like today might be that day. Futures currently indicate a possible new all time high today

:moneybag
by ReformedSpender
Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 110
Views: 10528

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

lostdog wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:12 am
Were there threads in 2017 asking if it's a good idea to get back in the international index?
You know as well as anyone else there weren't any; recency bias ran rampant. :D

"Why hold international?", "Why bonds?" or "Why not go 100% stocks?" were just a few of my personal favorites.

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Am I a Boglehead?
Replies: 31
Views: 2737

Re: Am I a Boglehead?

Only if you know the super secret password

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Mon Jun 17, 2019 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 110
Views: 10528

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

Vanguard Total International Stock Index expense ratio (admiral class) - 0.11 Vanguard International Growth (admiral class)- 0.32 You would be paying fee almost three times higher. Has the returns been almost three times as good? If you don't have at least $50k to earn admiral shares in the growth f...
by ReformedSpender
Fri Jun 14, 2019 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you buy VTSAX or VTI in a taxable account?
Replies: 16
Views: 1789

Re: Should you buy VTSAX or VTI in a taxable account?

vu8 wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:52 pm
Sadly VTI will have slightly lower cost in the future I think...
Currently by one-hundredth of a percentage point...

Nothing to lose sleep over

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Toyota Sienna tire replacement at 12k miles
Replies: 72
Views: 4294

Re: Toyota Sienna tire replacement at 12k miles

Well, chances are high you just replaced your sub-optimal tires with the exact same sub-optimal tires and you were charged a 'dealer premium'

:oops:
by ReformedSpender
Tue Jun 11, 2019 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Report - How America Saves 2019
Replies: 7
Views: 1232

Re: Vanguard Report - How America Saves 2019

changingtimes wrote:
Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:58 am
Am I the only one for whom "5 million" is surprisingly low?
According to the report, the number was just 3.6 million in 2014.

It's all relative
:beer
by ReformedSpender
Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Report - How America Saves 2019
Replies: 7
Views: 1232

Vanguard Report - How America Saves 2019

Did you know more than 5 million people have their 401(k) plan accounts at Vanguard? And despite all the volatility of 2018, only 8% of them made one or more trades or fund changes during the course of the year. Interesting data points about investor behavior, investment trends and statistics includ...
by ReformedSpender
Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The collapse of Neil Woodford
Replies: 21
Views: 3516

Re: The collapse of Neil Woodford

Woodford got careless, investing in several suspect biotech companies



Greed I suppose
:beer
by ReformedSpender
Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1409
Views: 137901

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Lets agree to temper this thread until we officially make new ATH's. We currently trading where we were ~18 months ago.

Keeping it real
:beer
by ReformedSpender
Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thank you, Taylor Larimore!
Replies: 49
Views: 6257

Re: Thank you, Taylor Larimore!

Thank you Taylor

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Thu Jun 06, 2019 4:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 8097

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

None of that is a guarantee Visualguy. Sounds like perpetual recency bias imo

Diversify, diversify, diversify
by ReformedSpender
Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 8097

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

Quantify “growth”.

Plenty of data available showing that the US has merely pushed off/delayed the inevitable; stagnation thanks largely in part to accommodating policies and a select, high-flying equity sectors.

America is not immune to the same issues being dealt around other areas of the world...
by ReformedSpender
Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11678
Views: 2011058

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Deeper issues afoot than the daily headlines around tariffs. A distraction imo. One of the leading indicators for GDP growth is True Money Supply (TMS). Durable Goods Orders, ISM Manager's Index, Layoffs, etc. all lag (respond) to the TMS. TMS level is approaching '00 and '07 levels. Furthermore, y...
by ReformedSpender
Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret Index
Replies: 132
Views: 17219

Re: Diversification Regret Index

Great post Vineviz! Stay the course ‘cus nobody knows nothing. One can thank the likes of FAANG for the majority of the US out-performance the past several years. Look how tech heavy the weighting in indices were by mid-late 2018. If you believe this group or sector will continue to outperform, high...
by ReformedSpender
Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11678
Views: 2011058

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Deeper issues afoot than the daily headlines around tariffs. A distraction imo. One of the leading indicators for GDP growth is True Money Supply (TMS). Durable Goods Orders, ISM Manager's Index, Layoffs, etc. all lag (respond) to the TMS. TMS level is approaching '00 and '07 levels. Furthermore, yo...
by ReformedSpender
Fri May 31, 2019 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11678
Views: 2011058

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Image
by ReformedSpender
Mon May 13, 2019 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11678
Views: 2011058

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Unlikely we see December's low again unless there is a significant blackswan(s) event. If we do, I'll be accumulating aggressively. I am however targeting a retrace back to the 26XX level on the S&P within the next 3 months. This would complete the right side of an inverted H&S pattern, setting us u...
by ReformedSpender
Mon May 13, 2019 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think US interest rates could drop.
Replies: 75
Views: 11329

Re: I think US interest rates could drop.

Previously posted in another thread, however, futures traders are now pricing a 47% chance of a rate CUT in 2020, up from 23% in 2020 just a few weeks ago https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D2HxYgyWsAI6nkS.png:large Futures traders are now pricing in a ~73% chance the Fed will cut rates by January https:/...
by ReformedSpender
Tue May 07, 2019 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11678
Views: 2011058

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

mtmingus wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 12:17 pm
LiterallyIronic wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 10:59 am
michaeljmroger wrote:
Tue May 07, 2019 10:40 am
Does this qualify as a RBD?
I thought the cutoff was -2% or more.
NAZ is down 2+%!
Yet, still up nearly 20% YTD. It's all relative...

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Fri May 03, 2019 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire buying stake in Amazon - my opinion
Replies: 55
Views: 6408

Berkshire buying stake in Amazon - my opinion

Buffett-Berkshire taking a position in Amazon signals a major red flag to me. It tells me Buffett and his team can’t find traditional value bargains so they were required to style drift and buy a growth stock with a PE of ~95.

Discuss

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Caps vs Large Caps divergence
Replies: 23
Views: 3279

Re: Small Caps vs Large Caps divergence

FANG stocks are skewing the performance for large caps (IMO). Small caps are reflecting the true market sentiment

:beer