Search found 522 matches

by ReformedSpender
Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chest Freezers
Replies: 14
Views: 1304

Chest Freezers

Going on half a year with this pandemic and finding an outlet with chest freezers in stock is proving harder than finding in stock TP earlier this year, nearly impossible. Anyone have any leads on availability from major brands (GE, Frigidaire, Whirlpool, etc)?

Thanks! :beer
by ReformedSpender
Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coffee storage
Replies: 42
Views: 3370

Re: Coffee storage

Airscape containers and store in a cool, dark, dry place
by ReformedSpender
Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 253
Views: 18901

Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

ReformedSpender wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 1:04 pm
Wrecked Capital is astonished to see several hedge funds going long TSLA and AAPL at these valuations :shock:


..but opposing views is what makes the market a market. Good luck to all :beer
This post didn't age well lol :D
by ReformedSpender
Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $2.3 trillion from Fed, unemployment, etc.
Replies: 36
Views: 3029

Re: $2.3 trillion from Fed, unemployment, etc.

We are truly in unprecedented times
by ReformedSpender
Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 38332

Re: Lets predict the bottom of this dip/recession

The first thread attempt on this topic wasn’t enough?
by ReformedSpender
Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 6.65 million new unemployment [April 2]
Replies: 35
Views: 3541

Re: 6.65 million new unemployment [April 2]

At this time, CBO's economic forecast updated today does not assume a V-shaped recovery. Unemployment could be at 9% at the end of 2021 given the effects of business closures. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56314?utm_source=feedblitz&utm_medium=FeedBlitzEmail&utm_content=812526&utm_campaign=Express...
by ReformedSpender
Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 201
Views: 19342

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

Just be patient. The market is working as fast as it can! In just about one month, it already retraced back one entire year. In my view, it will have to go back at least to 2016 levels. At the current pace (one month/year), we may get there by June or so. Certain markets are already there or worse ...
by ReformedSpender
Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306636

Re: Coronavirus and the market

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:57 am
I see the market take 4-5 years to regain the ATH. I think we will bottom around 2000 on the SPX, just my guess.
If one believes the ripple effect of COVID-19 is equal or greater than the Tech Bubble or GFC, an open mind (and lots of patience) for a recovery may be warranted .
by ReformedSpender
Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coronavirus Movie Suggestions
Replies: 104
Views: 7174

Re: Coronavirus Movie Suggestions

The Big short!
by ReformedSpender
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard Treasury Money Market yield so high?
Replies: 123
Views: 37815

Re: Why is Vanguard Treasury Money Market yield so high?

AE81 wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:56 pm
I won’t be surprised if Vanguard closes the fund to new investors (again).
Agreed, but what difference does it make when the yield will be zero, or dare I say, even negative :shock:
by ReformedSpender
Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The Coming Baby Boom?
Replies: 48
Views: 2091

Re: The Coming Baby Boom?

Being confined at home due to an invisible deadly enemy, concerns on supply chains and ability to acquire essentials and a 25% or greater chance of losing your job is not the formula for a baby boom
by ReformedSpender
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7335
Views: 598710

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

ReformedSpender wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:15 am
minimalistmarc wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:13 am
ReformedSpender wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:10 am
Over $200bn in month-end pension fund rebalancing is due to occur. Keep that in mind if we start to "rally".
Umm, this is completely irrelevant to anything.
I'm all ears... :confused
and the rebuttal is...?
by ReformedSpender
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7335
Views: 598710

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

minimalistmarc wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:13 am
ReformedSpender wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:10 am
Over $200bn in month-end pension fund rebalancing is due to occur. Keep that in mind if we start to "rally".
Umm, this is completely irrelevant to anything.
I'm all ears... :confused
by ReformedSpender
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7335
Views: 598710

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Over $200bn in month-end pension fund rebalancing is due to occur. Keep that in mind if we start to "rally".

On the other hand, if we head lower EOM, well, you better head over to the other thread :shock:
by ReformedSpender
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative interest rate has arrived
Replies: 37
Views: 4374

Re: Negative interest rate has arrived

Per https://www.wsj.com/market-data/bonds, the 3-month bill is trading at -0.005% and the 1 month at -0.010% right now. I'm curious to see what this does to my Treasury MM fund, which uses T-bills (VUSXX). Win some, lose some... Same here, yield has been falling rapidly. Not sure what occurs in thi...
by ReformedSpender
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 and Dow Futures Hit Limit Down After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open
Replies: 155
Views: 13426

Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Why does everyone talk as if we are close to the bottom already? I thought events this devastating last for months or maybe even over a year. Arn’t we just at the beginning? How can you have a recession that lasts for a couple of weeks? The job losses haven’t started yet. Businesses are just starti...
by ReformedSpender
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695767

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Level 1 halt tomorrow would put the S&P off from ATH’s by roughly 40%
by ReformedSpender
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306636

Re: Coronavirus and the market

If I can be honest, it’s unbelievable to watch more and more individuals here losing their confidence each passing day. Individuals whom are more knowledgeable about finances than most people as these lessons are ingrained in Bogleheads. Takeaway; being a Boglehead is not a one way street. You stay ...
by ReformedSpender
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695767

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Futs -4%
by ReformedSpender
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really that bad?
Replies: 96
Views: 8178

Re: Is it really that bad?

CoastalWinds wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:33 am

The only way this can be controlled at this point is through a strictly-enforced national lockdown.
It’s beginning in some cities...
by ReformedSpender
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 38332

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Even at today’s level (~1000 pts off the S&P), it could take YEARS to claw back to all time highs again. The damage to the global economy is extensive. Factor in the potential for legislation to limit or even ban buybacks again and one could anticipate an even lower CAGR than we’ve seen from 2000 to...
by ReformedSpender
Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Young investors, how do you feel about your 1st market crash?
Replies: 132
Views: 9142

Re: Young investors, how do you feel about your 1st market crash?

Make no mistake, Dec 2018 was also a crash. Only the magnitude, velocity and severity differ. So, this is not your “first”.

You are in the first innings of a 20 to 30 year accumulation phase. Hardly a dent. Keep your head up and stay the course.

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695767

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

staustin wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:59 pm
looks like market may be starting to find a bottom...
Nothing changes sentiment faster than price...
by ReformedSpender
Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306636

Re: Coronavirus and the market

This dataset seems useful for tracking job loss/regain in the small biz restaurant, food & beverage, retail and services sector. -39% as of yesterday. :shock: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTf0Ce37p3B0Qy-5BZPh1p9-WwEekPOxVdpMsumy6JFeCIt9EO6ZxbGNpnNxjdf9Mr9USeIMqjq9YU0/pubhtml?urp=...
by ReformedSpender
Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695767

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

abuss368 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:05 pm
No one knows where the bottom is. I did notice the 100% stock threads seem to have quieted down.
100% stock or 100% US only threads? :D

A V shape recovery will reignite them in no time. But a L shape recovery on the other hand...

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 y/o - just a rant thread about staying the course
Replies: 34
Views: 3487

Re: 30 y/o - just a rant thread about staying the course

I understand your frustration, however:

You are just 3 years into a 20 to 30 year accumulation phase. Hardly a dent. Keep your head up and stay the course.

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can/will the stock market close?
Replies: 13
Views: 1148

Re: Can/will the stock market close?

New York Stock Exchange just announced it is closing Monday, March 23rd..






but only its trading floor temporarily. Moving to fully electronic :happy
by ReformedSpender
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695767

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Huh? Have you already forgotten the unbelievable decade-long bull market we just experienced? Nope, hence why we are where we are (imo); Buybacks, ZIRP and ever expanding balance sheet debt. Regardless, in just three short weeks, the S&P has now hit the 38% fib retracement level from the 2009 low. ...
by ReformedSpender
Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695767

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Three major crashes in the span of just 20 years. Each time inflicting an irreversible injury on the country. At some point, one has to wonder when it won't be capable of recovering on its own
by ReformedSpender
Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695767

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

long_gamma wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:21 am
No where to hide.

Stocks limit down, Long bonds 3.2% down, Gold 2.15% down and even Bit coin is down by 1.2%. Only thing up is VIX futures lol
Clorox stock

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 253
Views: 18901

Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Dear Stakeholders, Wrecked Capital is pleased to disclose that short positions in both Apple and Tesla have pushed our firm into the top 10 fund returns YTD. Effective E.O.D March 17th, we will be closing out our short position in Apple for ~20% gain as we believe an ample amount of negative sentime...
by ReformedSpender
Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306636

Re: Coronavirus and the market

One thing I can't come to grips with is the timing (not sure I can go into more detail as may be considered political), the overall sentiment (market) and media coverage of COVID-19. For example, swine flu infected ~60M in the US with >10k deaths yet ZERO quarantines, ZERO closings and ZERO bailouts...
by ReformedSpender
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7335
Views: 598710

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

TheTimeLord wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:53 pm
ReformedSpender wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:48 pm
It is HIGHLY likely we see a 10-15% counter rally take place. Please do not take this as a sign that we are moving back to new ATH's.

We are far from out of the woods
Futures limit up.
Yes, S&P only has +7% to go to make up todays one day decline :D :D
by ReformedSpender
Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7335
Views: 598710

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

It is HIGHLY likely we see a 10-15% counter rally take place. Please do not take this as a sign that we are moving back to new ATH's.

We are far from out of the woods
by ReformedSpender
Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306636

Re: Coronavirus and the market

The bottom will be when 1+ million Americans are infected and everything gets closed like in Italy. At least one epidemiologist says that at least one million Americans are already infected. We just don't have the testing capability to verify it (yet at least). I agree that when it becomes clear th...
by ReformedSpender
Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306636

Re: Coronavirus and the market

The bottom will be when 1+ million Americans are infected and everything gets closed like in Italy. At least one epidemiologist says that at least one million Americans are already infected. We just don't have the testing capability to verify it (yet at least). I agree that when it becomes clear th...
by ReformedSpender
Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695767

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Two bold predictions:

Prepare for another lost decade (no V shape recovery)
and
I believe the market will close for an extended period before EOM
by ReformedSpender
Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306636

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Seasonal wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:46 pm
ReformedSpender wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:28 pm
And the FED just fired its “last” bullet when COVID-19 pandemic hasn’t even peaked yet in the US

That’s TWO emergency rate cuts in a matter of days...
It's not their last bullet.
That’s why I used quotes

:wink:
by ReformedSpender
Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306636

Re: Coronavirus and the market

And the FED just fired its “last” bullet when COVID-19 pandemic hasn’t even peaked yet in the US

That’s TWO emergency rate cuts in a matter of days...
by ReformedSpender
Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306636

Re: Coronavirus and the market

President Trump now being tested for COVID-19 according to press releases. Awaiting results.

:o
by ReformedSpender
Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306636

Re: Coronavirus and the market

peskypesky wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:26 am
It's so odd that some people think this dead cat bounce means the market hit bottom and is going to go up from here.

We haven't even BEGUN to see the real epidemic here in the USA.
Agreed. Nothing changes sentiment faster than price.
by ReformedSpender
Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695767

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Disney closing all resorts (including World now) and their cruise line should be good for a percent or two tomorrow.

But honestly, I believe we will see a rally...

Friday the 13th!

:beer
by ReformedSpender
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695767

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Corsair wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:02 pm
FED to the rescue, yay. Pumping $500 BILLION
$1.5T...
by ReformedSpender
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spike in Repo Rates [Fed Overnight Repurchase agreement]
Replies: 179
Views: 18046

Re: Spike in Repo Rates [Fed Overnight Repurchase agreement]

MASSIVE injection of FED repo just announced: $1.5 trillion of additional repo operations, including $500 billion of 3-month line operations today and tomorrow, and a $500 billion 1-month operation tomorrow

:shock: :shock: :oops:
by ReformedSpender
Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695767

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

CoastalWinds wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:37 pm
Following the speech, futures are tanking. Guess the market didn’t like what it heard.
Left much to be desired imo.
by ReformedSpender
Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard - Emergency Procedures for Coronavirus
Replies: 14
Views: 1334

Re: Vanguard - Emergency Procedures for Coronavirus

Things likely get executed remotely rather than onsite
by ReformedSpender
Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306636

Re: Coronavirus and the market

fanmail wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:47 pm
At least future generations will learn what exponential growth is.
or stagnation