Search found 222 matches

by SB1234
Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20234
Views: 2762038

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Does anyone know where all the money that's flowing out of the market during this correction is going? Treasuries have been relatively flat, as has gold. Are investors just moving to large cash positions, perhaps to combat uncertainty around the election? Money doesn't flow out of the market when t...
by SB1234
Fri Sep 11, 2020 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20234
Views: 2762038

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Does anyone know where all the money that's flowing out of the market during this correction is going? Treasuries have been relatively flat, as has gold. Are investors just moving to large cash positions, perhaps to combat uncertainty around the election? Money doesn't flow out of the market when t...
by SB1234
Fri Sep 11, 2020 8:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Old friend joined Northwestern Mutual -- how to politely explain they're awful
Replies: 87
Views: 6694

Re: Old friend joined Northwestern Mutual -- how to politiely explain they're awful

Northwestern Mutual is a slimy business. Here is where we encounter the slippery slope. Is Ford a slimy business due to Pinto gas tanks? Boeing because of the MAX firmware/software? Honda because of oil dilution? Wells Fargo because... well, it's Wells Fargo? Where do you draw the line, and what co...
by SB1234
Mon Sep 07, 2020 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bogleheads cope with FOMO? [Fear Of Missing Out]
Replies: 97
Views: 7640

Re: How do Bogleheads cope with FOMO?

I cope with the Reality of missing out, by focusing on the Reality of the personal progress made. e.g. When I first started out I would find it extremely hard to invest more than 1 thousand in any one stock. And I think even today I could'nt invest more than a single digit thousand in any one stock....
by SB1234
Sat Sep 05, 2020 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?
Replies: 145
Views: 10182

Re: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?

As I said earlier, how a company makes money is vital information—that said, I don’t own individual stocks. WoodSpinner You keep saying that but you do not offer any rationale or justification. Just saying it in vacuum is useless. The justification is pretty clear.... - Is it repeatable? - Is it le...
by SB1234
Sat Sep 05, 2020 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?
Replies: 145
Views: 10182

Re: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?

As I said earlier, how a company makes money is vital information—that said, I don’t own individual stocks. WoodSpinner You keep saying that but you do not offer any rationale or justification. Just saying it in vacuum is useless. Because Tesla is an electric car and clean energy products manufactu...
by SB1234
Sat Sep 05, 2020 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?
Replies: 145
Views: 10182

Re: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?

As I said earlier, how a company makes money is vital information—that said, I don’t own individual stocks. WoodSpinner You keep saying that but you do not offer any rationale or justification. Just saying it in vacuum is useless. Because Tesla is an electric car and clean energy products manufactu...
by SB1234
Sat Sep 05, 2020 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?
Replies: 145
Views: 10182

Re: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?

You are missing the main point, that there are numerous ways a company is profitable. Business models that are not even in existence today, will someday be a huge part of the economy. Just because we don't understand it today doesn't mean a particular business model is less valid. We do understand ...
by SB1234
Sat Sep 05, 2020 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?
Replies: 145
Views: 10182

Re: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?

WoodSpinner wrote: Sat Sep 05, 2020 8:27 am As I said earlier, how a company makes money is vital information—that said, I don’t own individual stocks.
WoodSpinner
You keep saying that but you do not offer any rationale or justification. Just saying it in vacuum is useless.
by SB1234
Fri Sep 04, 2020 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?
Replies: 145
Views: 10182

Re: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?

You are missing the main point, that there are numerous ways a company is profitable. Business models that are not even in existence today, will someday be a huge part of the economy. Just because we don't understand it today doesn't mean a particular business model is less valid. OMG I am having a...
by SB1234
Fri Sep 04, 2020 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?
Replies: 145
Views: 10182

Re: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?

:beer It certainly seems material to me. There is a big difference between receiving government handouts and having profitable business operations. With a P/E above 1,200 recently, it was smart of the committee to pass. Only one way for the stock to go in the short run (down) and the millions of pas...
by SB1234
Fri Sep 04, 2020 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?
Replies: 145
Views: 10182

Re: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?

You are missing the main point, that there are numerous ways a company is profitable. Business models that are not even in existence today, will someday be a huge part of the economy. Just because we don't understand it today doesn't mean a particular business model is less valid. OMG I am having a...
by SB1234
Fri Sep 04, 2020 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?
Replies: 145
Views: 10182

Re: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?

.They only meet that requirement with a big asterisk next to it, which is probably the reason the committee passed. I'm not advocating any side, but i think how a company makes money is not material. It certainly seems material to me. There is a big difference between receiving government handouts ...
by SB1234
Fri Sep 04, 2020 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?
Replies: 145
Views: 10182

Re: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?

.They only meet that requirement with a big asterisk next to it, which is probably the reason the committee passed. I'm not advocating any side, but i think how a company makes money is not material. It certainly seems material to me. There is a big difference between receiving government handouts ...
by SB1234
Fri Sep 04, 2020 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?
Replies: 145
Views: 10182

Re: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?

Actin wrote: Fri Sep 04, 2020 7:24 pm.They only meet that requirement with a big asterisk next to it, which is probably the reason the committee passed.
I'm not advocating any side, but i think how a company makes money is not material.
by SB1234
Fri Aug 28, 2020 9:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Put me on the right path
Replies: 10
Views: 988

Re: Put me on the right path

Gold - up to you. Selling it is not treated as capital gains, the gain is treated as ordinary income. You might want to keep it as a momento or sell 4 keep 1 or sell 3 keep 2. HI Grt2bOutdoors, are you sure about this because my understanding is that any asset is sold after 1 year holding gets bene...
by SB1234
Fri Aug 28, 2020 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expenses>Income new widow-should I worry?
Replies: 27
Views: 3126

Re: Expenses>Income new widow-should I worry?

Hi OP, One thing I didn't see mentioned. When you are ready to switch your medical insurance you will want to run a comparison for whether you can be eligible for ACA Subsidy. You have a sizeable ROTH account so you could withdraw from it age permitting and manage your taxable income to maximize the...
by SB1234
Sat Aug 15, 2020 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bridgewater's case for equal weighting across geographical regions: what do you think?
Replies: 58
Views: 2953

Re: Bridgewater's case for equal weighting across geographical regions: what do you think?

If all countries were equal, only then would it be logical to invest equally across the countries. But since countries are not equal we have to sonehow compensate for that fact. But their is no consensus of what the compensated weights should be. So we let the crowds decide what the real weights sho...
by SB1234
Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The Black Swan is Here
Replies: 164
Views: 19503

Re: The Black Swan is Here

Don't think we've seen the worst yet. 30 millions are still unemployed, millions are hanging on to their homes, deficit spending is propping up many of us. Stock market is not the economy. TravelforFun Do. you believe in that opinion enough to short the market? It is real easy to make a bunch of pr...
by SB1234
Wed Aug 12, 2020 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the big deal with RobinHood accounts???
Replies: 75
Views: 7907

Re: What is the big deal with RobinHood accounts???

Margin trading aside, they make trading very easy & intuitive in a very clean simple UI. This includes things like options, which are far easier to understand in the Robinhood UI vs. Fidelity and Schwab where all sorts of convoluted terms are used. Robinhood on the other hand will just say "I think...
by SB1234
Wed Aug 12, 2020 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the big deal with RobinHood accounts???
Replies: 75
Views: 7907

Re: What is the big deal with RobinHood accounts???

Then there was this recently, where a Robinhood user tragically misinterpreted the account balance in his account.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/14/investin ... index.html
by SB1234
Mon Aug 10, 2020 6:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What should I do?
Replies: 23
Views: 2635

Re: What should I do?

Hello everyone! Long time lurker here and finally decided to join to seek some advice...I'm 27 years old and back in February I decided to move all of my investments to cash reserves because I thought the market was WAYYYYY overvalued. At the time I felt like a genius because in came covid and the ...
by SB1234
Mon Aug 10, 2020 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demographic Destiny [US vs International]
Replies: 49
Views: 3081

Re: Demographic Destiny [US vs International]

For any one that thinks demographics is destiny you just have to look at the country weights by market cap.
Switzerland with approx 0.11% world population has 2.7% of world market cap.
by SB1234
Sun Aug 09, 2020 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demographic Destiny [US vs International]
Replies: 49
Views: 3081

Re: Demographic Destiny

In order for a developed economy to grow, it must increase its overall productivity. It can do this through two primary ways: 1) Increase the number of workers 2) Increase the productivity of workers While it is possible to still grow an economy with stagnant productivity growth with an expanding W...
by SB1234
Fri Aug 07, 2020 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?
Replies: 102
Views: 9146

Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

I am constantly taking some of the older toys home. Plan to have 7-8 years worth of toys at home at some point. But at the same time more new toys are going in to the game. I have more toys at home than ever, but also more toys outside then ever.
by SB1234
Thu Aug 06, 2020 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help my Aunt decide on Edward Jones or somewhere else
Replies: 55
Views: 3191

Re: Help my Aunt decide on Edward Jones or somewhere else

My aunt has moved her 401k money to Edward Jones, has the paper to sign and return as they are requesting it to control the funds, but I've told her to wait so I could get some guidance from you Bogleheads. I asked my aunt what kind of fees Edward Jones was going to charge her, what type of mutual ...
by SB1234
Wed Aug 05, 2020 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the average investor really the average dollar invested?
Replies: 17
Views: 1128

Re: Is the average investor really the average dollar invested?

I had an idea many years ago, but am revisiting it now: Let’s start with a baseline. You have to outperform a US stock market index fund. We can assume the fund is large with negligible internal costs. If I own this fund, I am guaranteed nothing more and nothing less than the average performance of...
by SB1234
Wed Aug 05, 2020 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8899
Views: 706437

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Euphoria at ATH. Freefall thread not even on main page.
by SB1234
Sun Aug 02, 2020 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8899
Views: 706437

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Cloud customer will buy either from Microsoft, or Amazon or Google. Personal computing from either apple, Microsoft or Google. You can go on and on. If you want to advertise you here either Google or Facebook. Just buy the market and let them figure out who wins.
by SB1234
Sun Aug 02, 2020 4:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Financially independent, now what?
Replies: 9
Views: 1180

Re: Financially independent, now what?

Now as the money keeps increasing I wonder what is the point anymore, I am financially independent but still work due to the common one-more-year syndrome. I think you have hit upon the most important question of all. Philosophers have answered in many ways, but 2 options stand out 1. Be an epicure...
by SB1234
Sun Aug 02, 2020 12:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the fear of actually LIVING through inflation overblown?
Replies: 80
Views: 5433

Re: Is the fear of actually LIVING through inflation overblown?

There was a topic recently about MMT about a video by Kelton. You can check it if you are interested.
viewtopic.php?t=310962
by SB1234
Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: HSA Really Worth It In California?
Replies: 17
Views: 1926

Re: HSA Really Worth It In California?

I've been considering switching over to an HSA offering at my company. California doesn't recognize HSAs, so there is additional work to calculate state taxes each year due to dividends and capital gains distributions. I tried to do a comparison of my traditional plan vs. HSA (which I described in ...
by SB1234
Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Losing a job in your 50's...
Replies: 571
Views: 87593

Re: Losing a job in your 50's...

I know plenty of engineers in their 50s and well into 60s, making appropriate pay for that age (read high), who work for 1,000; 5,000; 10;000-person and bigger firms. I don't know of anyone who's been laid off strategically with age in mind. I'm not, at all, suggesting it doesn't happen. I'm certai...
by SB1234
Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would it take to cause a QQQ Collapse?
Replies: 60
Views: 5774

Re: What would it take to cause a QQQ Collapse?

Just what the question says. I think we have moved past issues that caused the dotcom bubble (perhaps tech is overvalued overall but not to the same extent) so I am genuinely curious about what you think could happen where investors en mass abandon the sector, and where they would move their money ...
by SB1234
Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Losing a job in your 50's...
Replies: 571
Views: 87593

Re: Losing a job in your 50's...

I always wonder when there is age discrimination against 50's and over with the common belief that they are not up to their job challenge due to their health or not keeping up with changing technology/new ideas (or whatever you name it) why we do not see this age discrimination in our politicians w...
by SB1234
Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8899
Views: 706437

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

LOL at the poster who called Microsoft a one trick pony. They've tapped a single digit percentage of their total addressable market. Microsoft could 10x revenue and not be close to exhausting their growth potential. Let's get real here. And maybe Netflix is a one trick pony, but its a thoroughbred....
by SB1234
Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Wade Pfau is my guest on the "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast!
Replies: 279
Views: 14818

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau is my guest on the "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast!

No matter what methodology is used, you must specify some utility function. I prefer a CRRA-like utility function. Pfau prefers a success probability metric. More importantly what you or he prefers isn’t germane to the point I raised, which is the only utility function that matters is the one the i...
by SB1234
Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling gold via family member - tax implications?
Replies: 10
Views: 753

Re: Selling gold to family member - tax implications?

I want to offload a few of my gold coins to pay for my son's college costs. He needs the money sometime later this month but, to cut a long story short, he has physical access to the gold so it would be way easier for him to cash in the coins. All these coins were bought a few years back when the p...
by SB1234
Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Losing a job in your 50's...
Replies: 571
Views: 87593

Re: Losing a job in your 50's...

I know plenty of engineers in their 50s and well into 60s, making appropriate pay for that age (read high), who work for 1,000; 5,000; 10;000-person and bigger firms. I don't know of anyone who's been laid off strategically with age in mind. I'm not, at all, suggesting it doesn't happen. I'm certai...
by SB1234
Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Wade Pfau is my guest on the "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast!
Replies: 279
Views: 14818

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau is my guest on the "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast!

In my opinion, Dr. Pfau's approach is theoretically sound, but as I pointed out in the interview, there are practical matters that make doing some of these strategies difficult. FWIW my problem is exactly that his approach isn't theoretically sound. Taking care of your needs first and liability mat...
by SB1234
Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is entrepreneurship anti-Boglehead?
Replies: 41
Views: 2520

Re: Is entrepreneurship anti-Boglehead?

If you consider that bogleheads is basically striving very hard to be average. Then yes entrepreneurship is basically anti-boglehead. But if you consider bogleheads focus on cost, then it is not, because in any business the focus on reducing cost has to be relentless. I think the boglehead way to en...
by SB1234
Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Wade Pfau is my guest on the "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast!
Replies: 279
Views: 14818

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau is my guest on the "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast!

Putting aside the marketing of the insurance products. The important thing that I gained from the podcast was the rationale behind the LMP. I had read about it before but didn't quite understand why it was arguably better than the SWR based. The podcast helped me understand this. Some may call it bu...
by SB1234
Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Wade Pfau is my guest on the "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast!
Replies: 279
Views: 14818

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau is my guest on the "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast!

No specific companies or products were mentioned in this podcast with Dr. Pfau. In contrast, Burton Malkiel routinely touted Wealthfront where he is their Chief Investment Officer, and an emerging market ETF managed by a company he is tied in with during his podcast last month without disclosing ei...
by SB1234
Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8899
Views: 706437

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Todays tech valuations are nowhere near dot com bubble. At its height the P/e of Qqq was about 175. Now it is around 30 IIRC. I agree that valuations are not like the dot com bubble. I am still pessimistic about the growth opportunities justifying the valuations. Secondly, each of the techs have bl...
by SB1234
Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Wade Pfau is my guest on the "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast!
Replies: 279
Views: 14818

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau is my guest on the "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast!

To a someone with a hammer, the solution to every problem is a nail. To index fund providers, the answer to retirement is stock and bond index funds. To insurance agents, the answer is annuities and insurance. To mortgage companies, the answer is a reverse mortgage. If you REALLY listen to what Dr....
by SB1234
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8899
Views: 706437

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Todays tech valuations are nowhere near dot com bubble. At its height the P/e of Qqq was about 175. Now it is around 30 IIRC. I agree that valuations are not like the dot com bubble. I am still pessimistic about the growth opportunities justifying the valuations. Secondly, each of the techs have bl...
by SB1234
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8899
Views: 706437

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Todays tech valuations are nowhere near dot com bubble. At its height the P/e of Qqq was about 175. Now it is around 30 IIRC. I agree that valuations are not like the dot com bubble. I am still pessimistic about the growth opportunities justifying the valuations. Secondly, each of the techs have bl...
by SB1234
Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8899
Views: 706437

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

One interesting perspective I recently heard about about the US outperformance which is primarily driven by big tech is that big tech gets a large part of their revenue from outside US. AND ironically even though the pandemic is managed better sooner outside the US, the benefit has actually gone to ...
by SB1234
Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8899
Views: 706437

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

What are the future products existing customers will buy at higher than current rates? "Customers" are the product. The companies have a monopoly on them too. Also, Google and Facebook do not have a monopoly. Their technology is easily replicated. One misstep that drives their customers to another ...