44,000 COVID-19 Tests Conducted Yesterday in the U.S. 227,365 total tests conducted.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/ ... j5/pubhtml#
Search found 279 matches
- Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:03 pm
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
- Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:00 pm
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Let's hope it doesn't come to that. Apparently that's a Chinese training video. Looks choreographed.CoastalWinds wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:56 pm Coming soon to a town near you. Probably necessary given all the people who are defiantly ignoring the precautions. Deserving of a net over-the-head.
https://mobile.twitter.com/dksf/status/ ... 34881?s=21
- Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:49 pm
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Testing has such a high error rate that a negative test result would not be conclusive. Quarantining should happen regardless of testing.Prahasaurus wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:39 pmOh my, the stress on everyone must be incredible, so sorry... It's CRAZY they cannot test him. CRAZY! I would think anyone in contact with him over the past 2 weeks should be in strict quarantine until it's ruled out he has the virus.. And they need to test him asap. How is this happening in the USA? It's just unbelievable we can't test cases like this quickly.
- Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:17 pm
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Daughter's boyfriend admitted to ER with 102 fever and shortness of breath. At this point they don't even bother testing because test results are backed up weeks. Some people are in intensive care and haven't gotten test results back from 3 weeks ago. They just assume if you meet the criteria you have it. They were going to discharge him but he had some other symptoms and they decided to keep him for a while longer. Daughter is with him and has been in close proximity with him for days. I spent much of the morning dialing around trying to figure out what to do, and you just get a giant runarojnd. Finally just decided to send him to ER and if he meets criteria they will see him. He did. Of course he doesn't have insurance. It is a cluster o...
- Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:50 pm
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Current infection rates per 100,000 people as of 3:47 PM Eastern. NY is now almost 51% of total infections in the US.
US 9.45/100,000
NY 80.77/100,000
US ex NY 4.96/100,000
US 9.45/100,000
NY 80.77/100,000
US ex NY 4.96/100,000
- Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:38 pm
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
More on risks of false negative COVID-19 testing from FDA. When diagnostic testing is negative, the possibility of a false negative result should be considered in the context of a patient’s recent exposures and the presence of clinical signs and symptoms consistent with COVID-19. The possibility of a false negative result should especially be considered if the patient’s recent exposures or clinical presentation indicate that COVID19 is likely, and diagnostic tests for other causes of illness (e.g., other respiratory illness) are negative. If COVID-19 is still suspected based on exposure history together with other clinical findings, re-testing should be considered by healthcare providers in consultation with public health authorities. Risks...
- Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:36 pm
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
COVID-19 testing has high rate of false negatives. Testing only has value when confined to population likely to have the disease. A study of 1,000 patients in Wuhan province, China, found lung damage characteristic of Covid-19 infection was visible on chest CT scans in 15-25 per cent of those who registered negative in their first genetic test. As “fit to work” assessments go, this is a failure rate that would make Atos blush. Compare it with home pregnancy tests — which commonly advertise an error rate of only one per cent. Even then, women are advised to repeat the test several days later to obtain a reliable result. False negatives for pregnancy are mostly due to variance in urine samples, rather than any defects in the testing kit. Like...
- Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:32 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
New blood tests for antibodies could show true scale of coronavirus pandemic
How many COVID-19 cases have gone undetected? And are those who had mild cases of the disease—perhaps so mild they dismissed it as a cold or allergies—immune to new infections? If so, they could slow the spread of the burgeoning pandemic.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03 ... s-pandemic
How many COVID-19 cases have gone undetected? And are those who had mild cases of the disease—perhaps so mild they dismissed it as a cold or allergies—immune to new infections? If so, they could slow the spread of the burgeoning pandemic.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03 ... s-pandemic
- Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:30 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Remember, the numbers of positive tests does not reflect the number of people that actually are positive for the virus How can it be when in most places you are only testing people that are 60+ Random testing is of no value given the error rates of the tests. This has been extensively covered. Testing of symptomatic people and close contacts likely to have been exposed has some value. I don't know about the rest of the country but we are limiting tests to high risk patients only. There are not enough kits to test everybody with symptoms, especially if they are relatively young and healthy. At least this was true 12 days ago. I would assume anyone with symptoms consistent with COVID-19 who tests negative for influenza (which is a quick and ...
- Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:20 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
The Latest: Hawaii to begin quarantine of travelers to state Hawaii’s governor has instituted a mandatory 14-day quarantine starting Thursday of all people traveling to the state as part of efforts to fight the spread of the coronavirus, Hawaii News Now reported. The order applies to returning residents as well as visitors. “We need to come together as a community to fight this virus,” Gov. David Ige said at a news conference in the state Capitol. “This mandate is the first of its kind in the nation. We want this action to send the message to visitors and residents alike that we appreciate their love for Hawaii but we are asking them to postpone their visit.” https://fox28spokane.com/the-latest-hawaii-to-begin-quarantine-of-travelers-to-sta...
- Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:56 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Total positive tests = 900 (true positive) + 4950 (false positive) = 5850. A test with a 90% sensitivity and a 95% specificity is a very good test. The current COVID tests were developed in a hurry. They are unlikely to be that good and so the numbers are likely to be that much worse. I do not claim to know the best use of the test. But people who want to push for testing of the general population owe it to the public to make an effort to understand these numbers. And people who continue to be deniers owe it to the public to look at real data and not just make up imaginary numbers to suit their argument. The town of Vo in Italy did a test. The tested all 3000 citizens of the town -- all of them. They got 66 positives, a rate of 2.2%. So we...
- Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:24 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Negative influenza test for symptomatic patients being used in Louisiana to presumptively diagnose COVID. This is probably being done everyone and would be quicker and probably more reliable than RT-PCR. The Louisiana Department of Health (LDH) is now recommending COVID-19 testing for any patient with fever, respiratory symptoms, and a negative influenza test. All patients suspected of having COVID-19 (and undergoing testing) should isolate themselves at home until they get their test results back. If results are positive, patients should remain isolated at home until cleared by a doctor. The state’s public health lab will test samples taken from high risk patients who meet the following criteria: Hospitalized patients with a severe respira...
- Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:16 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
What we are doing now is hardly “aggressive action”. Aggressive action would have been a two week nationwide lockdown starting last week. What we got was mixed signals about social distancing from the federal level with the governors of a few states taking serious measures and others more or less pretending that nothing is happening. The restaurants in my city were forced to close. The ones in the city a mile down the street are allowed to be open as usual. How does that make any sense? The patios were all bustling on a pretty spring day yesterday. There is no reason to be hopeful imo. Barring some sort of miracle, the next two weeks are going to be horrific. JonnyDVM, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ The new cases cou...
- Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:39 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Random testing is of no value given the error rates of the tests. This has been extensively covered. Testing of symptomatic people and close contacts likely to have been exposed has some value.
- Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:37 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
What we are doing now is hardly “aggressive action”. Aggressive action would have been a two week nationwide lockdown starting last week. What we got was mixed signals about social distancing from the federal level with the governors of a few states taking serious measures and others more or less pretending that nothing is happening. The restaurants in my city were forced to close. The ones in the city a mile down the street are allowed to be open as usual. How does that make any sense? The patios were all bustling on a pretty spring day yesterday. There is no reason to be hopeful imo. Barring some sort of miracle, the next two weeks are going to be horrific. JonnyDVM, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ The new cases cou...
- Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:07 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
I am admittedly not an expert, but it seems like we are seeing some positive data emerge relating to new cases and daily deaths. Both counts have declined day over day. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ Why is this not very encouraging? As someone who has been monitoring daily the equivalent statistics for the world and the UK, I don't think you should read much into this. First, a one day decline is nothing unusual. Two days in a row is a bit more unusual. However when I was monitoring the world rate there was decline for several days, appearing to be showing that we are over the hump, then it started taking off again. With hindsight, China was over the hump, then Italy and others took off. So even if the two-day decli...
- Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:57 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
I am admittedly not an expert, but it seems like we are seeing some positive data emerge relating to new cases and daily deaths. Both counts have declined day over day. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ Why is this not very encouraging? As someone who has been monitoring daily the equivalent statistics for the world and the UK, I don't think you should read much into this. First, a one day decline is nothing unusual. Two days in a row would be a bit more unusual. However when I was monitoring the world rate there was decline for several days, appearing to be showing that we are over the hump, then it started taking off again. With hindsight, China was over the hump, then Italy and others took off. So even if the two-day...
- Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:50 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
We are now just under half the infection rate of South Korea (8.1 per 100,000 people in U.S. vs 17.3/100,000 for South Korea). We need the curve to start bending now if we want an outcome like South Korea which may be a best case scenario.
- Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:40 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
I am admittedly not an expert, but it seems like we are seeing some positive data emerge relating to new cases and daily deaths. Both counts have declined day over day. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ Why is this not very encouraging? I find it encouraging. We are about 1 week in to the "15 days" to slow the spread guidance. Unlike many posting here, in my opinion the American people by and large do appear to be taking this seriously. I haven't left the house except to get groceries in 10 days (since Thursday, March 12). Posting any positive development seems to result in a flurry of "just the flu" COVID-19 denier accusations. You don't inspire people by making the situation seem hopeless. FDR unde...
- Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:26 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Data on percentage of state's population with passports from 2011. Unsurprisingly, NY near the top and WV near the bottom.
America's Great Passport Divide
How income, education, and other factors influence our propensity for globe-trotting
New Jersey boasts the highest percentage of passport holders (68%); Delaware (67%), Alaska (65%), Massachusetts (63%), New York (62%), and California (60%) are close behind.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, less than one in five residents of Mississippi are passport holders, and just one in four residents of West Virginia, Kentucky, Alabama, and Arkansas.
https://www.theatlantic.com/national/ar ... ide/72399/
America's Great Passport Divide
How income, education, and other factors influence our propensity for globe-trotting
New Jersey boasts the highest percentage of passport holders (68%); Delaware (67%), Alaska (65%), Massachusetts (63%), New York (62%), and California (60%) are close behind.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, less than one in five residents of Mississippi are passport holders, and just one in four residents of West Virginia, Kentucky, Alabama, and Arkansas.
https://www.theatlantic.com/national/ar ... ide/72399/
- Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:07 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Updated infection rates as of approx. 6 AM this morning. NY now has 46% of total confirmed cases in U.S. and the overwhelming majority of new cases (1952 out of 2692 or almost 94% of new cases according to link below - this state data may not be complete since some states like NJ show no new cases).
U.S. overall 8.17/100,000
NY State 63
U.S. ex N.Y. 4.7
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
U.S. overall 8.17/100,000
NY State 63
U.S. ex N.Y. 4.7
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
- Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:53 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
The confirmed infection rate is meaningless because of limited number of testing. As many have said... if somehow we tested all of USA and have 1M or 10M or 100M positive, what would that change? Truthfully, the higher number of infected reduces the case fatality rate as long as the deaths don't increase in the same amount. The confirmed death rate is much more important because it shows if/when the hospitals are overwhelmed. If the government had those numbers (1M,10M, 100M) for the entire population, then they could better plan how to deal with the infection and each alternative would probably result in different government actions. If everyone has it already, there is no point in quarantine and everyone could go back to work. If only 1M...
- Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:48 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Study - 50% False Positive Test Results for Asymptomatic individuals
Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/3213383 ... cQBKMtCIoI
Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/3213383 ... cQBKMtCIoI
- Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:38 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
This is crazy. I read that there have been no new cases in Wuhan in days. A country of 1.6 BILLION people where China is now trying to help mankind with supplies and doctors. We need that fast response here. Mankind must come together. They are trying to buy time. Hopefully warmer weather slows it. Time to find a vaccine. Time to slow down the rate of spreading this virus. I'd love to believe the Chinese reports. But I don't, so I can't be that sanguine. Open question: which provides more reliable data - a country that is testing and reporting, but may be under-reporting, or a country that is barely testing? All speculation aside, the latter case just doesn't tell us much, does it? Active concealment would be less reliable. US is testing. ...
- Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:05 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
This is crazy. I read that there have been no new cases in Wuhan in days. A country of 1.6 BILLION people where China is now trying to help mankind with supplies and doctors. We need that fast response here. Mankind must come together. They are trying to buy time. Hopefully warmer weather slows it. Time to find a vaccine. Time to slow down the rate of spreading this virus. I'd love to believe the Chinese reports. But I don't, so I can't be that sanguine. Open question: which provides more reliable data - a country that is testing and reporting, but may be under-reporting, or a country that is barely testing? All speculation aside, the latter case just doesn't tell us much, does it? Active concealment would be less reliable. US is testing. ...
- Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:58 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
On a personal note, in doing some genealogy research years ago I discovered that my great-grandfather committed suicide in 1930. Not sure if it had anything to do with the great depression.
I also read that automobile deaths decreased significantly during the great depression which offset the increase in suicides.
- Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:51 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Interesting article on privacy concerns of using a South Korea like approach to combating COVID-19. In South Korea, the authorities have sent out texts detailing the movements of specific people infected with Covid-19, stirring up public shaming and rumor-mongering. The government is also using a smartphone app to ensure people stay home when they have been ordered to quarantine themselves. The ubiquitous Chinese apps WeChat and AliPay have been used to assign people “color codes” to determine whether they should quarantine themselves or may move around freely. But some citizens say the codes appear to be applied arbitrarily or based on which province they are in. There is also evidence the apps feed data back to the authorities. https://ww...
- Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:45 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:29 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Too slow to react. It has been a natural reaction for politicians to wait and see, taking half measures and waiting for test results. By then, it's too late. I hope other areas of the country take notes. Early and aggressive action works. Anything else doesn't. The governor of NY was pretty proactive in comparison to others in the US but it was still too slow. If you live somewhere that COVID hasn't yet hit, you need to urge MORE action. An observation I've made is that wealthy, mobile pockets of the population have been most responsible for the spread of this virus in the areas surrounding NYC. I wonder if this is true elsewhere in the country. Likely they are more apt to travel and less willing to distance themselves due to greater work ...
- Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:08 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
PPE shortages explained. Maybe making essential supplies and equipment in country isn't such a bad idea. The World Needs Masks. China Makes Them — But Has Been Hoarding Them. As China grappled with the coronavirus, it kept the masks it made. Now that other nations need them, pressure is rising on Beijing to resume exports. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/business/masks-china-coronavirus.html There should be domestic production (there is but limited) but it’s natural for China to hoard them. We would too until we had enough for everyone plus a good reserve because round 2 can always happen. True. But it is particularly galling when the manufacturers include American companies such as 3M that set up shop in China to reduce costs. The Chin...
- Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:56 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Correct. Downstate (Westchester Co. and below, including Nassau and Suffolk) accounts for 6,624 out of 7102 or 93% of total cases statewide.
https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/count ... tive-cases
- Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:44 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
PPE shortages explained. Maybe making essential supplies and equipment in country isn't such a bad idea.
The World Needs Masks. China Makes Them — But Has Been Hoarding Them.
As China grappled with the coronavirus, it kept the masks it made. Now that other nations need them, pressure is rising on Beijing to resume exports.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/busi ... virus.html
The World Needs Masks. China Makes Them — But Has Been Hoarding Them.
As China grappled with the coronavirus, it kept the masks it made. Now that other nations need them, pressure is rising on Beijing to resume exports.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/busi ... virus.html
- Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:21 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
NY Infections compared to the rest of the US (per 100,000 people).
- Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:11 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
This is crazy. I read that there have been no new cases in Wuhan in days. A country of 1.6 BILLION people where China is now trying to help mankind with supplies and doctors. We need that fast response here. Mankind must come together. They are trying to buy time. Hopefully warmer weather slows it. Time to find a vaccine. Time to slow down the rate of spreading this virus. +1 100% There is some suspicion regarding data coming out of China (link below). Hopefully the numbers regarding Wuhan are accurate. It would make sense that the virus has run its course there. More openness from China in December would have done more to help mankind than what is being done now. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/26/confusion-breeds-distrust-china-keeps-changi...
- Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:01 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
This is crazy. I read that there have been no new cases in Wuhan in days. A country of 1.6 BILLION people where China is now trying to help mankind with supplies and doctors. We need that fast response here. Mankind must come together. They are trying to buy time. Hopefully warmer weather slows it. Time to find a vaccine. Time to slow down the rate of spreading this virus. +1 100% There is some suspicion regarding data coming out of China (link below). Hopefully the numbers regarding Wuhan are accurate. It would make sense that the virus has run its course there. More openness from China in December would have done more to help mankind than what is being done now. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/26/confusion-breeds-distrust-china-keeps-changi...
- Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:56 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Number of new deaths dropped from 57 March 19 to 49 March 20 (first day to day drop since infection started ramping up).
Number of infected curve seems to be bending slightly.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Number of infected curve seems to be bending slightly.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
- Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:24 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Updated at 3:22 Eastern this morning.
New York now has 43 infections/100,000 (almost 43% of US total).
U.S. overall has about 6/100,000.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
New York now has 43 infections/100,000 (almost 43% of US total).
U.S. overall has about 6/100,000.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
- Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:31 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
WHO informed the world in mid January that there was no human to human transmission. No they didn't. It was health officials in Wuhan that said they did not have evidence of human to human transmission. WHO all along acknowledged that human to human transmission could not be rule out. On January 21 WHO officially announced that human to human transmission was possible. WHO tweeted this on Jan. 14. Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China,” the organization had said. https://nypost.com/2020/03/20/who-haunted-by-old-tweet-saying-china-found-no-human-transmission-of-coronavirus/ You said "W...
- Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:31 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
WHO tweeted this on Jan. 14.JonnyB wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:20 amNo they didn't.
It was health officials in Wuhan that said they did not have evidence of human to human transmission. WHO all along acknowledged that human to human transmission could not be rule out. On January 21 WHO officially announced that human to human transmission was possible.
Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China,” the organization had said.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/20/who-haunt ... ronavirus/
- Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:40 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Unintended consequences of COVID-19 response discussed on Freakonomics website. All this has resulted in the biggest disruption of daily life that many of us have ever known, and it will last for weeks, perhaps months. Will it successfully contain the spread of COVID-19? We’ll find out; hopefully it will at least be minimized. If we listen to the public-health people, the virologists and the epidemiologists — and we should, because they’ve been dreading and studying this kind of pandemic for years — they say the situation will get substantially worse in the U.S. before it gets better. And what other effects, and aftereffects, will this social distancing produce? There will be many consequences, and certainly some unintended ones. Would anyo...
- Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:52 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Thinking ahead, it appears that the world is in need of a global pandemic monitoring and response team. All member governments would have to be open and allow access in order to be members. International travel and trade between members would be largely as it is now. Travel and trade between members and non-members would be severely restricted or prohibited. The cost could be funded with taxes on international travel (which would have the salutary effect of reducing international travel and therefore the rapidity of infectious disease transmission) and tariffs on the international movement of goods. I'm beginning to think that national borders function as water tight compartments on a ship - if one springs a leak you can close it off from n...
- Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:29 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
3 - Look for the UK to experience one of the worst outbreaks of any major economic power, in my opinion worse than Italy. They have done next to nothing, only recently starting to take some measures, most of which are "recommendations," which few seem to be following. Testing there has also been sporadic, so hard to say how bad it is there right now. It's mind blowing how little they have done compared to the rest of Europe so far. I see little written about this in the US press, but it's going to be awful there soon. Spread of infection doesn't appear to be as far advanced in UK as in the other Western European countries (e.g., Italy, Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland). Has anyone looked into why this is? Presumably proximity ...
- Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:26 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
No doubt. London and NY being the hub of international travel in the UK and US.NearlyRetired wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:15 amwe are seeing something similar here in the UK, with London being a hot spotcraimund wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:13 am 40% of all COVID-19 infections in the US are now in New York State.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
- Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:20 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Infections per 100,000 updated to include New York. New York now has a higher rate of infection than France and Germany.
U.S. overall 4.36/100.000
New York State 29.23/100,000
Washington State (not shown in graph) 18.26/100,000
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
U.S. overall 4.36/100.000
New York State 29.23/100,000
Washington State (not shown in graph) 18.26/100,000
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
- Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:13 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
40% of all COVID-19 infections in the US are now in New York State.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
- Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:09 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
The WHO has retracted and been false so many times in this mess, I feel bad that I ignored my instinct to doubt them more. I feel the same about the CDC. The CDC had valid reasons for developing and certifying their own test. There is a reason that the CDC and FDA have regulations regarding testing. Inaccurate testing can cause more problems than it solves. That being said, they should have allowed concurrent test development by private industry much sooner. The failings at the CDC regarding testing appear to have been due to not wanting to cede control of the process soon enough. There is no evidence of the CDC intentionally misleading the public. WHO informed the world in mid January that there was no human to human transmission. They al...
- Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:33 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
The WHO has retracted and been false so many times in this mess, I feel bad that I ignored my instinct to doubt them more. I feel the same about the CDC. The CDC had valid reasons for developing and certifying their own test. There is a reason that the CDC and FDA have regulations regarding testing. Inaccurate testing can cause more problems than it solves. That being said, they should have allowed concurrent test development by private industry much sooner. The failings at the CDC regarding testing appear to have been due to not wanting to cede control of the process soon enough. There is no evidence of the CDC intentionally misleading the public. WHO informed the world in mid January that there was no human to human transmission. They al...
- Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:06 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Another interesting analysis of COVID-19 testing. We apparently have no idea how accurate the different tests being used in different countries are. Testing should be limited to at risk populations. Also explanation of initial handling of testing by CDC. The CDC’s methodological and quality concerns are being mistaken for a “botching,” rather than a quality concern and a very basic epidemiological principle. The accuracy of testing for COVID-19 needs to be discussed, as all the numbers we are following (and the massive reaction to it) hinge on the tests’ accuracy. As of now, global testing for COVID is based on a tribal group of genetic tests, that differ by country, region, and laboratory. The CDC test, for example, tests a different set o...
- Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:56 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Interesting analysis of the limitations of mass COVID-19 Testing Test-kit availability aside, there are crucial issues to consider. For example, so long as the background level of infection is low, there are real downsides to mass testing, and good reasons to limit testing to individuals who show symptoms or have been in contact with people who have shown symptoms. The problem is that when the overall level of infection is low, the overwhelming majority of your positive test results from mass testing will be false positives. This gives the public a false sense of what the actual mortality level is, a false sense of security in their own immunity status, and can contribute to future outbreaks. In fact, the mass testing in South Korea could b...
- Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:35 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
- Replies: 4963
- Views: 298108
Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Updated March 20, 2020 3:33 AM Eastern Time. U.S. has 4.36 cases per 100,000 people.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html