Search found 279 matches

by craimund
Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:03 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

44,000 COVID-19 Tests Conducted Yesterday in the U.S. 227,365 total tests conducted.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/ ... j5/pubhtml#
by craimund
Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:00 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Coming soon to a town near you. Probably necessary given all the people who are defiantly ignoring the precautions. Deserving of a net over-the-head. https://mobile.twitter.com/dksf/status/1241539077901434881?s=21 Let's hope it doesn't come to that. Apparently that's a Chinese training video. Looks...
by craimund
Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:49 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

They are discharging him. Tested negative for flu. He's feeling a little better due to Tylenol and iv. Have said nothing to daughter about self quarantine. It's all rather unbelievable to me. Oh my, the stress on everyone must be incredible, so sorry... It's CRAZY they cannot test him. CRAZY! I wou...
by craimund
Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:17 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Daughter's boyfriend admitted to ER with 102 fever and shortness of breath. At this point they don't even bother testing because test results are backed up weeks. Some people are in intensive care and haven't gotten test results back from 3 weeks ago. They just assume if you meet the criteria you h...
by craimund
Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:50 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Current infection rates per 100,000 people as of 3:47 PM Eastern. NY is now almost 51% of total infections in the US.

US 9.45/100,000
NY 80.77/100,000
US ex NY 4.96/100,000

Image
by craimund
Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:38 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

More on risks of false negative COVID-19 testing from FDA. When diagnostic testing is negative, the possibility of a false negative result should be considered in the context of a patient’s recent exposures and the presence of clinical signs and symptoms consistent with COVID-19. The possibility of ...
by craimund
Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:36 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

COVID-19 testing has high rate of false negatives. Testing only has value when confined to population likely to have the disease. A study of 1,000 patients in Wuhan province, China, found lung damage characteristic of Covid-19 infection was visible on chest CT scans in 15-25 per cent of those who re...
by craimund
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:32 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

New blood tests for antibodies could show true scale of coronavirus pandemic How many COVID-19 cases have gone undetected? And are those who had mild cases of the disease—perhaps so mild they dismissed it as a cold or allergies—immune to new infections? If so, they could slow the spread of the burge...
by craimund
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:30 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Remember, the numbers of positive tests does not reflect the number of people that actually are positive for the virus How can it be when in most places you are only testing people that are 60+ Random testing is of no value given the error rates of the tests. This has been extensively covered. Test...
by craimund
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:20 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

The Latest: Hawaii to begin quarantine of travelers to state Hawaii’s governor has instituted a mandatory 14-day quarantine starting Thursday of all people traveling to the state as part of efforts to fight the spread of the coronavirus, Hawaii News Now reported. The order applies to returning resid...
by craimund
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:56 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Total positive tests = 900 (true positive) + 4950 (false positive) = 5850. A test with a 90% sensitivity and a 95% specificity is a very good test. The current COVID tests were developed in a hurry. They are unlikely to be that good and so the numbers are likely to be that much worse. I do not clai...
by craimund
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:24 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Negative influenza test for symptomatic patients being used in Louisiana to presumptively diagnose COVID. This is probably being done everyone and would be quicker and probably more reliable than RT-PCR. The Louisiana Department of Health (LDH) is now recommending COVID-19 testing for any patient wi...
by craimund
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:16 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

What we are doing now is hardly “aggressive action”. Aggressive action would have been a two week nationwide lockdown starting last week. What we got was mixed signals about social distancing from the federal level with the governors of a few states taking serious measures and others more or less p...
by craimund
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:39 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Remember, the numbers of positive tests does not reflect the number of people that actually are positive for the virus How can it be when in most places you are only testing people that are 60+ Random testing is of no value given the error rates of the tests. This has been extensively covered. Test...
by craimund
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:37 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

What we are doing now is hardly “aggressive action”. Aggressive action would have been a two week nationwide lockdown starting last week. What we got was mixed signals about social distancing from the federal level with the governors of a few states taking serious measures and others more or less p...
by craimund
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:07 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I am admittedly not an expert, but it seems like we are seeing some positive data emerge relating to new cases and daily deaths. Both counts have declined day over day. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ Why is this not very encouraging? As someone who has been monitoring daily t...
by craimund
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:57 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I am admittedly not an expert, but it seems like we are seeing some positive data emerge relating to new cases and daily deaths. Both counts have declined day over day. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ Why is this not very encouraging? As someone who has been monitoring daily t...
by craimund
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:50 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

We are now just under half the infection rate of South Korea (8.1 per 100,000 people in U.S. vs 17.3/100,000 for South Korea). We need the curve to start bending now if we want an outcome like South Korea which may be a best case scenario. https://i.postimg.cc/MTdPmPPv/US-SK-Infection-Rate-3-21.png
by craimund
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:40 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I am admittedly not an expert, but it seems like we are seeing some positive data emerge relating to new cases and daily deaths. Both counts have declined day over day. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ Why is this not very encouraging? I find it encouraging. We are about 1 week...
by craimund
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:26 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Data on percentage of state's population with passports from 2011. Unsurprisingly, NY near the top and WV near the bottom. America's Great Passport Divide How income, education, and other factors influence our propensity for globe-trotting New Jersey boasts the highest percentage of passport holders...
by craimund
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:07 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Updated infection rates as of approx. 6 AM this morning. NY now has 46% of total confirmed cases in U.S. and the overwhelming majority of new cases (1952 out of 2692 or almost 94% of new cases according to link below - this state data may not be complete since some states like NJ show no new cases)....
by craimund
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:53 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

The confirmed infection rate is meaningless because of limited number of testing. As many have said... if somehow we tested all of USA and have 1M or 10M or 100M positive, what would that change? Truthfully, the higher number of infected reduces the case fatality rate as long as the deaths don't in...
by craimund
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:48 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Study - 50% False Positive Test Results for Asymptomatic individuals Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.g...
by craimund
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:38 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

This is crazy. I read that there have been no new cases in Wuhan in days. A country of 1.6 BILLION people where China is now trying to help mankind with supplies and doctors. We need that fast response here. Mankind must come together. They are trying to buy time. Hopefully warmer weather slows it....
by craimund
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:05 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

This is crazy. I read that there have been no new cases in Wuhan in days. A country of 1.6 BILLION people where China is now trying to help mankind with supplies and doctors. We need that fast response here. Mankind must come together. They are trying to buy time. Hopefully warmer weather slows it....
by craimund
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:58 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Also, increasing suicide 4 per 100,000 in a worst case scenario (aka 1929) is 13K deaths. On a personal note, in doing some genealogy research years ago I discovered that my great-grandfather committed suicide in 1930. Not sure if it had anything to do with the great depression. I also read that au...
by craimund
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:51 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Interesting article on privacy concerns of using a South Korea like approach to combating COVID-19. In South Korea, the authorities have sent out texts detailing the movements of specific people infected with Covid-19, stirring up public shaming and rumor-mongering. The government is also using a sm...
by craimund
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:45 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

NY Infections compared to the rest of the US (per 100,000 people). https://i.postimg.cc/SRrPMQYM/COVID-19-US-vs-US-ex-NY.png Very interesting. So - what (if anything) has New York done “wrong”? Higher population density would be my guess Clearly more aggressive action is needed in NY than elsewhere...
by craimund
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:29 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Too slow to react. It has been a natural reaction for politicians to wait and see, taking half measures and waiting for test results. By then, it's too late. I hope other areas of the country take notes. Early and aggressive action works. Anything else doesn't. The governor of NY was pretty proacti...
by craimund
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:08 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

PPE shortages explained. Maybe making essential supplies and equipment in country isn't such a bad idea. The World Needs Masks. China Makes Them — But Has Been Hoarding Them. As China grappled with the coronavirus, it kept the masks it made. Now that other nations need them, pressure is rising on B...
by craimund
Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:56 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

https://i.postimg.cc/SRrPMQYM/COVID-19-US-vs-US-ex-NY.png It's not just that. Upstate is not as nearly impacted as that around NYC. Correct. Downstate (Westchester Co. and below, including Nassau and Suffolk) accounts for 6,624‬ out of 7102 or 93% of total cases statewide. https://coronavirus.healt...
by craimund
Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:44 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

PPE shortages explained. Maybe making essential supplies and equipment in country isn't such a bad idea. The World Needs Masks. China Makes Them — But Has Been Hoarding Them. As China grappled with the coronavirus, it kept the masks it made. Now that other nations need them, pressure is rising on Be...
by craimund
Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:21 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

NY Infections compared to the rest of the US (per 100,000 people).

Image
by craimund
Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:11 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

This is crazy. I read that there have been no new cases in Wuhan in days. A country of 1.6 BILLION people where China is now trying to help mankind with supplies and doctors. We need that fast response here. Mankind must come together. They are trying to buy time. Hopefully warmer weather slows it....
by craimund
Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:01 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

This is crazy. I read that there have been no new cases in Wuhan in days. A country of 1.6 BILLION people where China is now trying to help mankind with supplies and doctors. We need that fast response here. Mankind must come together. They are trying to buy time. Hopefully warmer weather slows it....
by craimund
Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:56 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Number of new deaths dropped from 57 March 19 to 49 March 20 (first day to day drop since infection started ramping up).

Number of infected curve seems to be bending slightly.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
by craimund
Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:24 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Updated at 3:22 Eastern this morning.

New York now has 43 infections/100,000 (almost 43% of US total).
U.S. overall has about 6/100,000.

Image

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
by craimund
Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:31 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

WHO informed the world in mid January that there was no human to human transmission. No they didn't. It was health officials in Wuhan that said they did not have evidence of human to human transmission. WHO all along acknowledged that human to human transmission could not be rule out. On January 21...
by craimund
Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:31 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

WHO informed the world in mid January that there was no human to human transmission. No they didn't. It was health officials in Wuhan that said they did not have evidence of human to human transmission. WHO all along acknowledged that human to human transmission could not be rule out. On January 21...
by craimund
Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:40 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Unintended consequences of COVID-19 response discussed on Freakonomics website. All this has resulted in the biggest disruption of daily life that many of us have ever known, and it will last for weeks, perhaps months. Will it successfully contain the spread of COVID-19? We’ll find out; hopefully it...
by craimund
Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:52 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Thinking ahead, it appears that the world is in need of a global pandemic monitoring and response team. All member governments would have to be open and allow access in order to be members. International travel and trade between members would be largely as it is now. Travel and trade between members...
by craimund
Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:29 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

3 - Look for the UK to experience one of the worst outbreaks of any major economic power, in my opinion worse than Italy. They have done next to nothing, only recently starting to take some measures, most of which are "recommendations," which few seem to be following. Testing there has also been sp...
by craimund
Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:26 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

NearlyRetired wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:15 am
craimund wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:13 am
40% of all COVID-19 infections in the US are now in New York State.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
we are seeing something similar here in the UK, with London being a hot spot
No doubt. London and NY being the hub of international travel in the UK and US.
by craimund
Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:20 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Infections per 100,000 updated to include New York. New York now has a higher rate of infection than France and Germany. U.S. overall 4.36/100.000 New York State 29.23/100,000 Washington State (not shown in graph) 18.26/100,000 https://i.postimg.cc/dVLyzGzX/COVID-19-Infection-Rate-3-20-0817.png http...
by craimund
Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:13 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

40% of all COVID-19 infections in the US are now in New York State.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
by craimund
Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:09 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

The WHO has retracted and been false so many times in this mess, I feel bad that I ignored my instinct to doubt them more. I feel the same about the CDC. The CDC had valid reasons for developing and certifying their own test. There is a reason that the CDC and FDA have regulations regarding testing...
by craimund
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:33 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

The WHO has retracted and been false so many times in this mess, I feel bad that I ignored my instinct to doubt them more. I feel the same about the CDC. The CDC had valid reasons for developing and certifying their own test. There is a reason that the CDC and FDA have regulations regarding testing...
by craimund
Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:06 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Another interesting analysis of COVID-19 testing. We apparently have no idea how accurate the different tests being used in different countries are. Testing should be limited to at risk populations. Also explanation of initial handling of testing by CDC. The CDC’s methodological and quality concerns...
by craimund
Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:56 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Interesting analysis of the limitations of mass COVID-19 Testing Test-kit availability aside, there are crucial issues to consider. For example, so long as the background level of infection is low, there are real downsides to mass testing, and good reasons to limit testing to individuals who show sy...
by craimund
Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:35 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195812

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Updated March 20, 2020 3:33 AM Eastern Time. U.S. has 4.36 cases per 100,000 people.

Image

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html