Search found 229 matches

by David Althaus
Wed Jul 29, 2020 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FOMO: Gold and Silver -- Buy, Sell, Hold, Waiting for Dip?
Replies: 43
Views: 2296

Re: FOMO: Gold and Silver -- Buy, Sell, Hold, Waiting for Dip?

Some questions you may benefit from asking yourself: 1. Am I late, early, or about on time to the party? 2. How much of my portfolio do I need to devote to this asset that creates a meaningful difference to my net worth? If I put that much in how will I feel if the investment goes the wrong way and ...
by David Althaus
Sat Jul 25, 2020 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: M I B with Bill Miller
Replies: 46
Views: 3001

Re: M I B with Bill Miller

I listened as well and had the same impression. Then I compared his mutual funds to VTI. The market does better and the expenses of his offerings are extremely high.

All the best
by David Althaus
Sat Jul 25, 2020 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing a Lump Sum
Replies: 9
Views: 1026

Re: Investing a Lump Sum

Might be a benefit to review wiki site on asset allocation. 1. It helped us to think in terms of our "total asset pie" meaning add up all your assets (including emergency funds, bank accounts, and mutual funds. 2. Determine the asset allocation of those funds as prescribed by your Investment Policy ...
by David Althaus
Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coffee bean grinder
Replies: 34
Views: 1589

Re: Coffee bean grinder

You might consider an OXO. All their stuff is well thought out and mine works great. Cleaning once per month is simple and gets rid of accumulated gunk. Bought on Amazon and as I recall the price was around $80.

All the best
by David Althaus
Mon Jul 13, 2020 5:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: "How ESG Makes Companies Better" (but lowers expected returns)
Replies: 67
Views: 3168

Re: Larry Swedroe: "How ESG Makes Companies Better" (but lowers expected returns)

None of this matters. ESG empowers us to sit at the cool kids table. It doesn't matter that definitions are fuzzy, actions inside some of these companies are inconsistent with logic or experience, or that too many cede line decisions to the staff. The main benefit: you get to tell yourself you're on...
by David Althaus
Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying and Selling WITHIN a Category At This Time
Replies: 4
Views: 451

Re: Buying and Selling WITHIN a Category At This Time

You also want to consider selling the real estate funds and purchase Total Stock Market. If you do you will hold real estate in proportion to market capitalization. Many here get bored listening to 3 fund portfolio people but it's definitely something to consider. Compare your current portfolio to T...
by David Althaus
Fri Jul 10, 2020 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Investing Education
Replies: 7
Views: 620

Re: International Investing Education

Consider these characteristics beyond reutrn: 1. Undoubtedly provides diversification benefit. 2. Serves as something of a hedge against the dollar. At about 20% of equity portfolio much (not all) of that hedge benefit is realized. 3. While it's a fact there's been a ten year lag reversion to the me...
by David Althaus
Fri Jun 26, 2020 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Grantham on Invest Like the Best
Replies: 15
Views: 1488

Re: Jeremy Grantham on Invest Like the Best

I listened. Reminds one of many old adages but here's the one which really sticks out to me: Often wrong never in doubt.

All the best
by David Althaus
Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Time value of money TVM Book
Replies: 5
Views: 407

Re: Time value of money TVM Book

The key concept: a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar tomorrow. Of course, this assumes inflation will remain--other than for short deflationary exceptions.

All the best
by David Althaus
Fri Jun 19, 2020 5:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Hard to stay the course...
Replies: 38
Views: 4802

Re: Hard to stay the course...

Fixed assets are for ballast. Your use of CDs is fine in this context. Remember with bond funds: new are always coming into the fund and old are always leaving. The new rate replacing the old rates somewhat buffers the concern about falling bond prices if inflation comes back. Have you considered 1/...
by David Althaus
Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CALPERS Needs 7% Return
Replies: 58
Views: 6999

Re: CALPERS Needs 7% Return

Sorry to get back on high horse. My main assertion is that a 60/40 or even 70/30 has a great chance of outperforming CALPERS sophisticated approach over ten years. I'm watching the CALPERS person on CNBC right now. I remain committed (with more confidence) to my assertion.

All the best
by David Althaus
Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Figuring out your Asset Allocation
Replies: 28
Views: 2168

Re: Figuring out your Asset Allocation

+1 Dandy. AT 73 we keep seven years expenses in fixed assets. Why? The Depression lasted 10 years, most bear markets last less than 5--so we kind of split the difference. Additionally, I read in an old book that you should prepare for seven lean years. Maybe I dreamt it. The rest is split 80% VTI an...
by David Althaus
Tue Jun 16, 2020 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Self-Cleansing Nature of SP 500--Underappreciated?
Replies: 19
Views: 2468

Self-Cleansing Nature of SP 500--Underappreciated?

I suffer from short term thinking--all tomorrows will be like today. Except, all tomorrows will not be the same and it's impossible to predict. Curiosity generated a Google search on how the investment world is always changing and how part of the beauty of the S&P 500 is it's self-cleansing nature. ...
by David Althaus
Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does anything beachfront on the Florida Panhandle ever cashflow?
Replies: 5
Views: 1730

Re: Does anything beachfront on the Florida Panhandle ever cashflow?

We spend winters on Hawaii's Big Island and rent. I've twisted myself into a pretzel multiple times with multiple spreadsheets seeking to justify purchasing a condo there. Honest and complete (mine have always missed something like Covid) assumptions reveal it's a really not feasible. Too many owner...
by David Althaus
Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CALPERS Needs 7% Return
Replies: 58
Views: 6999

CALPERS Needs 7% Return

WSJ article this morning (probably firewalled) by CALPERS stating 7% return required for the next decade. To accomplish they will change strategy (sound familiar?) to more private equity and more private lending. Ten years are (conveniently) required for evaluation and there will be ups and downs (p...
by David Althaus
Fri Jun 12, 2020 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any reason for 5% cash in a long-term portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 4874

Re: Any reason for 5% cash in a long-term portfolio?

Viewed as part of fixed assets in our portfolio. Couple observations: 1. If 5% ensures you stay the course that's what you should employ. If you can stay the course with less/more land there. 2. Cash position lowers overall duration in employed bond position. Check comfort level with that new durati...
by David Althaus
Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2 cars, one driver. Should I sell one?
Replies: 45
Views: 3040

Re: 2 cars, one driver. Should I sell one?

+1 02NZ. Sell both. Finance a new one at max and max months for 0 percent (assuming it actually is 0 percent). You'll have brand new auto which can be amortized over at least ten years. There's also some peace of mind driving newer and more reliable.

All the best
by David Althaus
Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When does an advisor make sense?
Replies: 56
Views: 2820

Re: When does an advisor make sense?

Might be a good idea to consider the self-questioning technique. Here's our Q/A when considering Vanguard PAS: 1. Will it help us stay the course? No more or less likely than behavior already in place. 2. If the "financial" spouse is no longer capable does PAS make sense? Our son has agreed to help....
by David Althaus
Thu Jun 11, 2020 5:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap value index funds; advise please
Replies: 10
Views: 936

Re: Small cap value index funds; advise please

There may be long periods of under/over performance. Think about it as if it's a marriage. If implemented a life commitment is probably required. It may also be appropriate to ask "Who doesn't know this?" Consider the possibility any premium has been or is being arbitraged away.

All the best
by David Althaus
Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: doubts on avoiding on bid-ask spread cost
Replies: 12
Views: 664

Re: doubts avoiding on bid-ask spread cost

I checked bid/ask spreads at about 1:30 Eastern time today: VTI--one penny per share (Per share price about $162) VXUS--no spread at all (Per share price about $50.50) BIV--four pennies per share (Per share price about $92) This hardly qualifies as a rounding error. Probably not a good idea to execu...
by David Althaus
Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on International Index Funds
Replies: 36
Views: 2443

Re: Thoughts on International Index Funds

Here's what 20% of our equity portfolio in Vanguard Total ExUS (VXUS) does for sure: 1. Provides further diversification. 2. Serves as something of hedge against the US dollar. I personally believe (a data point essentially worth nothing) ex US equities sell for about what they're worth. That means ...
by David Althaus
Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yet another private equity question
Replies: 29
Views: 1298

Re: Yet another private equity question

Excuse my skepticism. Why are they offering you this glorious opportunity? Why not just get one large institutional investor; save on the paperwork, save cost of selling, and have an inside track on keeping this whale with the next great deal when this one produces that double digit return? If it's ...
by David Althaus
Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does Buying an RV make sense?
Replies: 97
Views: 6398

Re: Does Buying an RV make sense?

Rent one for six months. After that length of time you will probably know if the lifestyle is for you.

All the best
by David Althaus
Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reinvesting Dividends in Taxables: Arguments for and Against?
Replies: 15
Views: 1238

Re: Reinvesting Dividends in Taxables: Arguments for and Against?

We now use only ETFs so I can't speak for traditional mutual funds. Dividend reinvestment no longer makes sense in ETFs. Here's why: 1. Reinvest dividends in the asset class which is currently under allocated. This tends to steer you toward your IPS asset allocation target. 2. No commissions on purc...
by David Althaus
Sat Jun 06, 2020 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing in volatile times ETFs vs. Mutual Funds
Replies: 11
Views: 675

Re: Rebalancing in volatile times ETFs vs. Mutual Funds

Oops. I meant to say no reason not to use them. Should demonstrate better proofreading skills. My apologies. I happen to think ETFs are simple and a little cheaper if you can keep your behavior in check. Thus a good deal.

All the best
by David Althaus
Sat Jun 06, 2020 6:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to remind my wife to ask her father for 6.5k that they owe?
Replies: 18
Views: 2339

Re: How to remind my wife to ask her father for 6.5k that they owe?

Loans to family members must always be viewed as gifts. If you thought it was a loan there's solace in knowing you won't make that mistake again.

All the best
by David Althaus
Sat Jun 06, 2020 6:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing in volatile times ETFs vs. Mutual Funds
Replies: 11
Views: 675

Re: Rebalancing in volatile times ETFs vs. Mutual Funds

1. We rebalanced BIV (intermediate bond) into VTI (TSM) on one such day in March. It bothered me a bit but proceeded based on our rebalancing rules. There has been little consequence. As of Friday, our portfolio is up slightly for the year. This has nothing to do with skill but demonstrates the wisd...
by David Althaus
Fri Jun 05, 2020 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 60/40 Portfolio Now Positive for 2020
Replies: 4
Views: 1259

Re: The 60/40 Portfolio Now Positive for 2020

And for those of you who executed on your rebalancing bands--a bit better.

All the best
by David Althaus
Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VGLT: long term treasury
Replies: 13
Views: 957

Re: VGLT: long term treasury

Steeled myself for incoming fire: Too much brain power on Bogleheads wasted thinking about and worrying about bonds. Bonds are for ballast. Stick with Vanguard Total Bond Fund and worry more about how much ballast you need to stay the course.

All the best
by David Althaus
Thu Jun 04, 2020 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE-weighted vs. market cap weighted portfolio / any research?
Replies: 18
Views: 982

Re: CAPE-weighted vs. market cap weighted portfolio / any research?

You're right. Should have read more closely. And, I don't know. I always assume once these things are well-researched and commonly known almost all predictive powers get mitigated by arbitrage. It may be different for CAPE.

All the best
by David Althaus
Thu Jun 04, 2020 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE-weighted vs. market cap weighted portfolio / any research?
Replies: 18
Views: 982

Re: CAPE-weighted vs. market cap weighted portfolio / any research?

+1 for Heyyou. CAPE really hasn't worked since it became widely known. I'll stick with TSM and outperform 95% of money managers over the next 20 years--assuming I make it that far. "The race may not always go to the swift and the strong--but that's the way to bet."

All the best
by David Althaus
Thu Jun 04, 2020 8:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Want to tilt scv, only option is expensive
Replies: 12
Views: 942

Re: Want to tilt scv, only option is expensive

A more important question to ask yourself may be: If SCV underperforms for another 10-15-20 years "will I" stay the course? Lots of its premium occurred prior to 1984 or 1985--can't quite remember. It may be correct that SCV will revert or it may be correct that SCV is so well known all the premium ...
by David Althaus
Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future Marginal Tax Rate Estimator (post from Reddit)
Replies: 13
Views: 936

Re: Future Marginal Tax Rate Estimator (post from Reddit)

Agree that rule of thumb is better than nothing. Current law expires in 4 or 5 years--I think. The government needs more of our money and whatever your political persuasion if the out party is elected ( 2020 or 2024) does anyone really believe that rates will remain at these incredibly low rates. Al...
by David Althaus
Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Individual investors get burned by collapse of complex securities
Replies: 44
Views: 4727

Re: WSJ: Individual investors get burned by collapse of complex securities

After reading the article it occurs to me that the world moves forward but human nature remains constant. As long as someone seeks "high yield" with "low risk" there will be those willing to supply. And the result: it's always the same.

All the best
by David Althaus
Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Inside the Mind of a Stock Market Crash" -- research on Vanguard investors between Feb-Mar of 2020
Replies: 16
Views: 2526

Re: "Inside the Mind of a Stock Market Crash" -- research on Vanguard investors between Feb-Mar of 2020

Thanks for the post. This reinforces the futility of trying to time the market. Conversely, it does reinforce the wisdom of rebalancing bands--assuming you can pull the trigger. If you didn't pull the trigger now would be an ideal to revise your IPS and adjust asset allocation to one you WILL execut...
by David Althaus
Sun May 31, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Planning for after death of a parent
Replies: 32
Views: 3593

Re: Planning for after death of a parent

You should consider an attorney to help you set up will, likely a living trust--because of probate depending on your state of residence, and an estate plan for her. I would be especially wary of probate as it sneaks up on people with more regularity than often assumed. A living trust likely helps ge...
by David Althaus
Sun May 31, 2020 5:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS--Explain please...
Replies: 6
Views: 848

Re: TIPS--Explain please...

I'm with poppa. You can describe TIPS 'til the cows come home and I still don't understand these things. You pay a premium (in the form of lower rate) for inflation protection. If you own a broad-based bond fund the old are replaced with the new somewhat mitigating with higher rates if or when infla...
by David Althaus
Sun May 31, 2020 5:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Novice investor advice needed: what should I do with a lump sum in the current environment?
Replies: 11
Views: 1094

Re: Novice investor advice needed: what should I do with a lump sum in the current environment?

Think you could benefit by obtaining copy of JL Collins, "The Simple Path to Wealth." Here's the answer if you consider betting odds: market goes up more often than it goes down, therefore, put all the money in now. If, and this is a big if, you won't be able to stay the course by getting scared out...
by David Althaus
Fri May 29, 2020 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: jlcollinsnh - Stock Series
Replies: 26
Views: 5742

Re: jlcollinsnh - Stock Series

There's a simple easy-flow writing style Mr. Collins has mastered. Such a style means people can get through it and understand its content. He further provides a step-by-step accumulation and allocation process which can be employed at any age. I give copies of his book as part of high school gradua...
by David Althaus
Fri May 29, 2020 7:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for Help with Portfolio Creation
Replies: 10
Views: 604

Re: Looking for Help with Portfolio Creation

+1 for DavidJay comments. My bias would be for total market VTI ETF as it eliminates the need to rebalance 500 and extended market. If you failed to rebalance them relative allocations could get out-of-whack.

All the best
by David Althaus
Fri May 29, 2020 7:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Fund for 60 year old
Replies: 8
Views: 1302

Re: Bond Fund for 60 year old

We use BIV--Vanguard Intermediate Bond--(don't know mutual fund equivalent). It has about 60% Treasury and 40% corporate with a duration of about 6 1/2 years. With cash and CD's we brought that duration of our fixed assets down to about 5 years. As long as you stay with a generic broad-based bond in...
by David Althaus
Mon May 25, 2020 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Vanguard Seems to Be Pushing Us Towards ETFs?
Replies: 50
Views: 4840

Re: Why Vanguard Seems to Be Pushing Us Towards ETFs?

I've had both. If (and this is no small if) you rebalance once per year or at designated framework ETF is simple and very slightly cheaper. Now that brokerages offer no fee transactions and some even offer partial share purchase there's little reason not to use them. It also seemed to make TLH simpl...
by David Althaus
Sun May 24, 2020 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spring 2020 Market Review for each asset class
Replies: 3
Views: 497

Re: Spring 2020 Market Review for each asset class

TIPS questions for the experts: 1. What allocation required within fixed assets to make the view worth the climb? 2. If you have a total bond fund: while you may lag a little behind TIPS in rising inflation won't deletion of maturing bonds and addition of new (higher-yielding bonds) mitigate or cert...
by David Althaus
Sun May 24, 2020 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth + Time vs Pretax + tax
Replies: 94
Views: 5646

Re: Roth + Time vs Pretax + tax

I may demonstrate a weakness for rules of thumb but: If you have more than 20 years to let the Roth compound that's most likely what you should do. Less and it's likely a wash. Don't wait. I did and now it's too late.

All the best
by David Althaus
Sun May 24, 2020 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which investor is bullish?
Replies: 14
Views: 1476

Re: Which investor is bullish?

1. If you can get your hands on Saturday's Wall Street Journal note an essay in the review section which essentially asserts economic growth explosions closely follow pandemic events. Post Spanish Flu just the latest example (Roaring 20''s) 2. If you backtest a 100% US Stock market portfolio for the...
by David Althaus
Sun May 24, 2020 8:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What’s the optimal turnover ratio for an ETF?
Replies: 12
Views: 661

Re: What’s the optimal turnover ratio for an ETF?

In addition to what is said above: For a taxable account turnover adds to your tax bill when there is a capital gain. That's why VTI is difficult to beat as you factor taxes into the equation. It has never distributed a taxable gain. It's unlikely it ever will. Add to that it is self-cleansing with ...
by David Althaus
Sat May 23, 2020 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peer to peer lending in this day and age
Replies: 46
Views: 2874

Re: Peer to peer lending in this day and age

If your can get your hands on Thursday's issue of the Wall Street Journal do so. It outlines how March 16 almost blew up the financial system because of cash (that's right) and bonds. My takeaway is there is plenty of risk to digest in plain vanilla bond funds. When we reach for more we often get bu...
by David Althaus
Fri May 22, 2020 7:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Strategy: %Cash in Portfolio
Replies: 17
Views: 1542

Re: Strategy: %Cash in Portfolio

At 73 we have seven years living expenses in fixed assets--one year in checking and money market, year two in CD, and the rest in intermediate bond fund. The remainder is in Total Market. Why 7? Worst bear market in history lasted ten years, most last less than five. I also read in an old book that ...
by David Althaus
Tue May 19, 2020 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking Advice on Allocation of Elderly Relative's Investment Portfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 479

Re: Seeking Advice on Allocation of Elderly Relative's Investment Portfolio

Since you have it all in one place at Vanguard seems to me doing nothing might be a logical solution. If she needs to generate cash sell the vehicles which have opportunities to Tax Loss Harvest. At some point there will be a step up event and the heirs can divvy it up into their personal portfolios...