Search found 2139 matches

by mrspock
Fri Mar 15, 2024 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great news! No more [fixed real estate] agent commission
Replies: 163
Views: 15019

Re: Great news! No more [fixed real estate] agent commission

If buyers are on the hook for buyer commissions, I think you will see: 1. More open houses - Allows listing agents to optimize the use of their time, and making it easier for folks without buyer's agents to access the property. I can even see listing agents putting this into their contracts (i.e. private showings at their discretion, open houses every N weeks). 2. Use of real estate attorney's over RE agents - A RE lawyer will be infinitely more competent at protecting you legally, and financially, while costing a fraction of the price. This is actually the practice in Canada, where the Lawyer performs the same function as an escrow & title company (they do the title search, and disburse the funds to seller's lawyer when appropriate). 3...
by mrspock
Thu Mar 14, 2024 10:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "Rich Man's Roth" / 7702
Replies: 37
Views: 5438

Re: "Rich Man's Roth" / 7702

What they don't explain is the "Rich Man" in the name isn't you, it's the insurance sales person. :D
by mrspock
Fri Mar 08, 2024 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster
Replies: 170
Views: 15833

Re: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster

Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Mar 08, 2024 2:24 am
mrspock wrote: Fri Mar 08, 2024 1:07 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Mar 04, 2024 11:40 am Peak pessimism in EM makes me feel good about my large allocation going forward
"Feelings" and investing rarely have happy endings.
Everyone invests on “feelings” backed by evidence they have conviction in
Not everyone.
by mrspock
Fri Mar 08, 2024 1:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster
Replies: 170
Views: 15833

Re: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster

Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Mar 04, 2024 11:40 am Peak pessimism in EM makes me feel good about my large allocation going forward
"Feelings" and investing rarely have happy endings.
by mrspock
Sat Mar 02, 2024 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tuning out the Noise documentary about Booth, Fama, et al
Replies: 10
Views: 2252

Re: Tuning out the Noise documentary about Booth, Fama, et al

Just heard an interview on the Rational Reminder podcast with Errol Morris, director of The Thin Blue Line, The Fog of War, and several other notable films. He just made a documentary, Tuning out the Noise , about how several U of Chicago economists like David Booth and Eugene Fama revolutionized investing. Will be of interest to many Bogleheads, I think. I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I consider Fama as well as the Rationale Reminder podcast as noise. RR just beats the DFA drum way too much for my tastes, to the point where it wore out my patience. If you believe in factor based investing, then it’s a great podcast to reaffirm your strategy (which can be necessary to stay on course). I also don’t think they “revolutionized”...
by mrspock
Mon Feb 19, 2024 2:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to get my road paved
Replies: 77
Views: 5849

Re: How to get my road paved

Assuming there are legitimate safety concerns, I would stress those in a registered letter (ideally from an attorney) citing whatever statues obligate them to maintain roads, to the city department responsible for road repair and CC'd to your mayor, and local representative. If they have a triage system, request the road be inspected, triaged and informed of what level they've assigned to the road section. That will probably make their ears perk up a bit, at best it gets the road fixed, at worst it lays the foundation for a solid lawsuit should something happen.

Squeaky wheels get grease.
by mrspock
Sat Feb 10, 2024 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it foolish to keep driving my old car?
Replies: 138
Views: 12248

Re: Is it foolish to keep driving my old car?

I dropped $100k in new cars in the last couple years, after driving a car for 10+ years and over 250k miles, like you -- once I hit FI. My rationale? Safety technologies have dramatically improved, and I was at risk of being penny wise and a pound foolish should I wind up in an accident.

I bought a couple hulking SUVs where I'm more likely to win a contest of physics, should it come to that. Potholes are also anything of the past for me.... don't notice them anymore.

My advice? Spend the money.
by mrspock
Sat Feb 10, 2024 3:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taking Advantage Of Current Estate Tax Exemption
Replies: 22
Views: 1685

Re: Taking Advantage Of Current Estate Tax Exemption

trustquestioner wrote: Fri Feb 09, 2024 3:49 pm Bogleheads, where $30 million isn’t rich. Every eye roll emoji.
Haha I was thinking the same thing. Along with "Can that Estate attorney maybe go work for the IRS? I don't think they got the memo about these 'mid' rich people."
by mrspock
Sat Feb 03, 2024 4:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Children unprepared to manage our trust after our deaths.
Replies: 67
Views: 7892

Re: Children unprepared to manage our trust after our deaths.

The reality is, substantial amounts of money ($3-5m+), require knowledge to manage properly, and can easily destroy relationships and lives if folks are not educated. I believe in most cases the knowledge is pretty minimal, except when someone selects investments that are unusually difficult/complex to manage, as in this case. As a test and to teach, I asked gave a 30 so something heir $25k in US total market, I simply said: all you need to do is hold it, and watch what happens (I also explained that they could hold anywhere from 40-0% in bonds to reduce volatility to their risk tolerance). This was 5 years ago. Any guesses what that 25k is worth now? Any guesses how much is still US total market? Or an ETF or any kind? Knowledge of basic ...
by mrspock
Sat Feb 03, 2024 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Children unprepared to manage our trust after our deaths.
Replies: 67
Views: 7892

Re: Children unprepared to manage our trust after our deaths.

I did not read the thread word-for-word but if this is all very complicated and requires tutoring and lessons and working together with far-flung siblings and it’s not even for your children and instead for your grandchildren, well, it doesn’t sound all that attractive. Cool, a chore that requires cooperation and I don’t benefit at all . The reality is, substantial amounts of money ($3-5m+), require knowledge to manage properly, and can easily destroy relationships and lives if folks are not educated. OP, wanted to see if folks were willing to learn, and would change the trust accordingly based on the meeting. For example if one kid was willing to handle the RE and others weren't, they might get a bit more for the hassle. This doesn't seem...
by mrspock
Fri Feb 02, 2024 6:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is Everyone's Info Really on the Dark Web?
Replies: 25
Views: 3358

Re: Is Everyone's Info Really on the Dark Web?

Statistically speaking, what is the likelihood of your name and social security number being on the dark web? Is it like 5% of all people? 20% of all people? 50% ? We are trying to decide if we need to purchase this additional coverage from our monitoring service. They have an additional coverage called Dark Web Monitoring and Alerts. We are just not sure if we should purchase it or not. I had my info stolen in multiple breaches, I've honestly lost count. I had a credit freeze/lock on my credit report for a few years, but nobody ultimately tried anything, and it was more of a problem than it was worth (opening new CCs or refinancing a mortgage was super painful). I unfroze it, and now just use various apps which notify me immediately if th...
by mrspock
Thu Feb 01, 2024 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Echoes of Dot Com Bubble?
Replies: 230
Views: 23992

Re: Echoes of Dot Com Bubble?

Let me start by saying that I didn't live through the dot.com era as an investor (I was too young, and clueless about markets). So I never experienced the euphoria, the growing wall of worry, the painful downfall, etc. of that period. Today, I hear/read stories in which people say this 'feels' a lot like the dot.com era from 1998-2000. I'm in no position to assess the validity of that sentiment, however. So I come here to my financial peeps to get a reality check on this. In what ways is today's market (including investor sentiment, greed level, valuations, etc.) similar to and/or different from 1999? Lived through it as an adult. Not even remotely close. These are few gigantic profitable companies which are "over valued", people...
by mrspock
Tue Jan 23, 2024 10:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much is owned real estate (primary/secondary homes) as a percent of your net worth?
Replies: 113
Views: 8869

Re: How much is owned real estate (primary/secondary homes) as a percent of your net worth?

mikejuss wrote: Tue Jan 23, 2024 12:33 pm Most Bogleheads don't count real estate values as part of their net worth. After all, you have to live somewhere. So if you sell your house, it's not as if you pocket the money and walk away, as you would be able to do if you sold a stock or a bond.
Some of us have more than 1 home… some of more than 2 homes. We can sell them and still live quite nicely in the remaining home(s).
by mrspock
Thu Jan 18, 2024 11:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Leave family temporarily for new job in Bay Area?
Replies: 88
Views: 8122

Re: Leave family temporarily for new job in Bay Area?

Hey Bogleheads, We have an interesting dilemma. My wife was laid off last week from her SWE/tech job ($230K/yr) and was given 3mo to find a job internally, plus a generous 15 week severance. This effectively means she's paid through July/Aug without having to do any work. We were planning to use this time to interview prep and find another good paying job in NJ/NYC area. If things go well, she might even start the new job and get severance at the same time. This week, however, she already quickly found a new opportunity internally but it requires relocation to the Bay Area (3 days onsite a week). She really likes the new job and the manager she'll be working with. She always wanted to move there too. Her new job sounds safe from future lay...
by mrspock
Thu Jan 18, 2024 11:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are car washes necessary?
Replies: 116
Views: 12615

Re: Are car washes necessary?

jaMichael wrote: Thu Jan 18, 2024 4:56 pm Do car washes serve any purpose other than making your car look good? My 2006 RAV4 lives under a filthy tree and even if I get it washed, it's filthy again two days later, so I stopped washing it about 18 months ago. Is this going to come back to haunt me? Note that I'm a renter and can't home wash, and professional car washes are a bit pricey around here (SoCal).
It depends on the environment the car exists in. If it's a dry desert, then probably it doesn't matter all that much (though shade will matter a lot!), if it's a salty environment (winter cities or sea side), washing the salt off will certainly extend the life of the paint & metals. Anywhere else, it probably doesn't matter a whole lot, is my guess.
by mrspock
Thu Jan 18, 2024 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what invested net worth do contributions start to matter less?
Replies: 48
Views: 8281

Re: At what invested net worth do contributions start to matter less?

tonyclifton wrote: Thu Jan 18, 2024 7:06 pm
mrspock wrote: Thu Jan 18, 2024 6:55 pm
Lee_WSP wrote: Thu Jan 18, 2024 6:48 pm When the contribution is worth less than the annual return.
This is a pretty good guideline IMO.
Even if the contributions are less than the annual return...I view it as juicing up the compounding.
I look at it as me sitting on my death bed, and somebody offering to give me an extra year of prime health life for the money. No brainer for me... I'll take the extra year, my heirs will have to do with a slightly less fancy house or pool or whatever.
by mrspock
Thu Jan 18, 2024 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what invested net worth do contributions start to matter less?
Replies: 48
Views: 8281

Re: At what invested net worth do contributions start to matter less?

Lee_WSP wrote: Thu Jan 18, 2024 6:48 pm When the contribution is worth less than the annual return.
This is a pretty good guideline IMO.
by mrspock
Sun Jan 14, 2024 12:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you make your first $1M?
Replies: 148
Views: 33538

Re: How did you make your first $1M?

I know a lot of people say the " American Dream " is dead, but it was very much alive for me. There was simply no chance I could have done what I did in any other country. Zero. Zilch. I didn't start out in the country particularly patriotic, but I'm shamelessly proud of my adopted country now. Definitely took some luck, but no amount of luck would have produced the same result where I came from. American dream is alive and well for me. I immigrated to America in my 20's. I took any job I could find, including filth labor work before I found the job in my field. I work for big tech but not FAANG type of tech. I was a financial idiot thinking investment is for just the rich but I work super hard, long hours, go above and beyond, a...
by mrspock
Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What Makes the USA Stock Market So Amazingly Successful
Replies: 39
Views: 3290

Re: What Makes the USA Stock Market So Amazingly Successful

If you travel to Europe enough, it's easier to see some of the reasons why this is so: 1. Geography - Massive advantage from a stability PoV, resource PoV and economy of scale. The EU was designed to fix this, but it's not nearly as good as a single large country under one less level of bureaucracy. 2. Attitudes towards wealth - Many (most?) Americans want to be rich. This isn't really as much of a thing in the rest of the world. While it might not be great for mental health, it's good for the economy. People work harder. 2. Less regulation - Not saying we are great here, but far better shape than Europe. 3. Worker Productivity - It's far higher per the statistics, and I've found this to be anecdotally true as well. 4. Less "*isms"...
by mrspock
Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio and Life Advice - Just Slogging Through Life with Young Children
Replies: 33
Views: 5059

Re: Portfolio and Life Advice - Just Slogging Through Life with Young Children

Agree you are doing great, with the possible exception of hanging onto the RSUs. Is there some reason you are hanging on to them? Do you have reason to believe they will skyrocket in value or otherwise greatly exceed the returns of the S&P500 after taxes . I say greatly, as you are taking a very large risk with a single stock, and as such need to be sufficiently compensated for taking that risk, which is also highly correlated with your job. The S&P 500 roughly doubles every 10 years on average, so me personally, I'd be looking for a doubling every ~3 years on your single stock. To me, otherwise it's just not worth it. IMO, it needs to be very (near term) life changing money for me to risk the potential growth of $30k for 35-40 year...
by mrspock
Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you make your first $1M?
Replies: 148
Views: 33538

Re: How did you make your first $1M?

Entirely W2 income. Fun facts: it took me something like 13 years of working get hit my first million. By year 7 I had maybe $200k to my name, it took a change of countries + job change to really earn enough to get me on the path to my first $1m. 2 years for the next 1m, then 1 yr for the 3rd M. The bulk of this was an extremely high savings rate, but it was also being ambitious in my career, and working very long ours to differentiate myself from my peers. Once I saw performance & results were rewarded where I worked, I doubled down on it. I know a lot of people say the "American Dream" is dead, but it was very much alive for me. There was simply no chance I could have done what I did in any other country. Zero. Zilch. I didn...
by mrspock
Fri Jan 05, 2024 7:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Marriage tax penalty and getting a prenup in early 30s
Replies: 121
Views: 17145

Re: Marriage tax penalty and getting a prenup in early 30s

With kids: 50/50 split postmarital assets. Child support + alimony for the person who raises the kids until they reach age 22. I'm not aware of any jurisdiction which would enforce such a clause. IIRC, child support is simply not prenup'able (parents cannot surrender the support rights of their children), and thus you have to design the prenup removing kids completely out of the equation. We want the prenup to be different with and without kids. Without kids, both of us earn more than enough to cover our expenses (we spend 80k yearly including the mortgage of the house) so the 60/40 split is just to make sure we can both end up financially well. With kids, we believe the earning ability of the parent who primarily raises the kids could be ...
by mrspock
Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Marriage tax penalty and getting a prenup in early 30s
Replies: 121
Views: 17145

Re: Marriage tax penalty and getting a prenup in early 30s

With kids: 50/50 split postmarital assets. Child support + alimony for the person who raises the kids until they reach age 22. I'm not aware of any jurisdiction which would enforce such a clause. IIRC, child support is simply not prenup'able (parents cannot surrender the support rights of their children), and thus you have to design the prenup removing kids completely out of the equation. The good news is, Washington caps the income they include in their (child support) formula at $12k/month, but the bad news is, it's not unheard of for partners (particularly those who can afford good legal advice) to re-locate to a more favorable (uncapped) state like CA, prior for filing for divorce + child support. My advice, is make a solid prenup with...
by mrspock
Wed Jan 03, 2024 2:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiring at age 40 with $2.4M
Replies: 210
Views: 133991

Re: Retiring at age 40 with $2.4M

Middle of the road Boglehead here. Very likely you will be fine, but I'd probably save up an extra $350k or so to get you down to a 3.5% SWR (2% far too conservative).

I'd recommend using Rich, Broke or Dead, as it uses mortality tables. Instead of guessing when you'll be dead, you can take into account the probability of living that long AND being broke (two statistically independent events). You can also add in your SS income to see how it impacts things.
by mrspock
Tue Jan 02, 2024 2:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At what net worth did you start not sweating the "small stuff"
Replies: 137
Views: 27071

Re: At what net worth did you start not sweating the "small stuff"

Deprogrammed myself at around $5-6m. Don’t look at gas prices, groceries or even airfare any more. Honestly… I didn’t even bother to haggle on my last cars. Paid full MSRP. I didn’t save up & invest all this money so I could keep pinching pennies my whole life. I did it so I didn’t need to care anymore. Would you mind sharing more about this "deprogramming"? Curious to learn about your mindset before and how you changed it. TLDR: Once I hit >50x expenses, I began to budget based off SWR vs “needs”. As many other Bogleheads, I lived quite frugally until I hit FI or “my number”. Same car for over 200k miles, did the work myself fairly humble housing, flew economy, you name it. I basically lived off one pay check each month, and...
by mrspock
Mon Jan 01, 2024 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At what net worth did you start not sweating the "small stuff"
Replies: 137
Views: 27071

Re: At what net worth did you start not sweating the "small stuff"

Deprogrammed myself at around $5-6m. Don’t look at gas prices, groceries or even airfare any more. Honestly… I didn’t even bother to haggle on my last cars. Paid full MSRP. I didn’t save up & invest all this money so I could keep pinching pennies my whole life. I did it so I didn’t need to care anymore. Would you mind sharing more about this "deprogramming"? Curious to learn about your mindset before and how you changed it. TLDR: Once I hit >50x expenses, I began to budget based off SWR vs “needs”. As many other Bogleheads, I lived quite frugally until I hit FI or “my number”. Same car for over 200k miles, did the work myself fairly humble housing, flew economy, you name it. I basically lived off one pay check each month, and...
by mrspock
Mon Jan 01, 2024 6:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At what net worth did you start not sweating the "small stuff"
Replies: 137
Views: 27071

Re: At what net worth did you start not sweating the "small stuff"

Deprogrammed myself at around $5-6m. Don’t look at gas prices, groceries or even airfare any more. Honestly… I didn’t even bother to haggle on my last cars. Paid full MSRP.

I didn’t save up & invest all this money so I could keep pinching pennies my whole life. I did it so I didn’t need to care anymore.
by mrspock
Wed Dec 27, 2023 1:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The Myth of "Owning the Market"
Replies: 84
Views: 12297

Re: The Myth of "Owning the Market"

Since you asked....my opinion on this is: 1. Concentration in a few stocks - It's quite possible this is a feature, and not a bug of indexing (as is survivorship bias). Why? Because the magic of cap weighted indexes, is they automagically find the big winners for you over time, and your ownership of them scales up or down according to their performance, and how the market believes they will perform over time. Sure, you won't time it perfect on the up or down side, but that isn't the point -- the point of indexing is to be "good enough" over a very long sustained period of time (decades), and let compounding do the work, not perfect stock picking. 2. History - This isn't a new phenomenon, if you do some Googling, you'll see that th...
by mrspock
Tue Dec 19, 2023 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: First RSU Vest - What Would You Do?
Replies: 23
Views: 2400

Re: First RSU Vest - What Would You Do?

+1 to what others have said. I’ve worked in FAANG for over a decade, the first rule of FAANG is you never talk trash about your own company to the press (if you feel the urge, do it on Blind — and even then you are one security breach away from losing your job). The second rule: always sell on vest and invest the proceeds in VTI, VOO or whatever index funds you like.

Lots of threads in this.
by mrspock
Sun Dec 10, 2023 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lower bond percentage after you won the game?
Replies: 112
Views: 21785

Re: Lower bond percentage after you won the game?

This was my approach as well. I've since over 2x'd my original number, and it just didn't make sense to have such a large amount of bonds. I basically did what another poster did, I costed out ~10 years in spending, maintain that in bonds (goes up slightly), but overall, my bond AA has drifted below 20% (from what was 30% at one point). I treat the extra allocation on equity like I treat my business class airfares and lattes: I'm spending/risking my heirs money -- not mine. They might love me, or hate me, time will tell. I should also mention that I have substantial (non-income producing) real estate holdings as apart of my NW, so that tends to act bond-like (for my NW). So as a % of my NW, equities are actually more like 50-60%. Should a 1...
by mrspock
Sat Dec 02, 2023 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCHD Poor Performance
Replies: 122
Views: 19533

Re: SCHD Poor Performance

tibbitts wrote: Sat Dec 02, 2023 9:53 am
mrspock wrote: Fri Dec 01, 2023 1:23 pm The voting is over, the proverbial weighing has begun: SCHD has rallied nicely in the last week. Good earnings, steadying of interest rates and the dividend ex date coming up.
Why would someone buy in when a dividend was coming up? If anyone held the fund in taxable they might sell based on that; in other accounts it should be a non-issue.
Because many investors are immensely foolish. It shouldn't matter a bit, but humans are humans.
by mrspock
Fri Dec 01, 2023 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCHD Poor Performance
Replies: 122
Views: 19533

Re: SCHD Poor Performance

The voting is over, the proverbial weighing has begun: SCHD has rallied nicely in the last week. Good earnings, steadying of interest rates and the dividend ex date coming up.
by mrspock
Tue Nov 28, 2023 2:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hey Men, what are you wearing to the gym?
Replies: 123
Views: 17386

Re: Hey Men, what are you wearing to the gym?

IMO, a fairly put together + functional gym attire consists of: - Synthetic mix jogging pants w/ *zipped* pockets - Synthetic blend zip up hoodie - Simple black Nike/Reebok/Under Armoir trainers - Under Armor t-shirt, good quality. Preferably with a WWE wrestler of some sort on it, or subtle logo signaling your support for the wrestler. - white socks ankle or crew socks (hidden socks == out of style). - Apple Watch for fitness tracking … personally I avoid shorts, as I have some hygiene OCD. The less my skin touches the equipment… the better. Also to those who dismiss the puffery of attire, keep in mind, if you look good, and invest in good gym equipment it can be very motivating to keep at it, which is ultimately good for your health. You ...
by mrspock
Sun Oct 15, 2023 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Factor ETFs Fail to Deliver Their Promised Returns
Replies: 207
Views: 16371

Re: WSJ: Factor ETFs Fail to Deliver Their Promised Returns

10 years is a pretty short period. Psychologically, it's a long time to pay extra to underperform, not knowing if your 'factor bet' will even pay off in your investing life. Indeed. That's why it isn't for the faint of heart. But that can be true for stocks in general. Haven't there been 10-year runs with little or no nominal gain? Absolutely, but in the case of VOO/VTI, you can tell yourself “I’m getting market returns like everyone else”, with factor funds I’m telling myself “Oh dear, this tailored alphabet soup or factor funds I’ve assembled is lagging… maybe I chose wrongly? Should I change? Abandon my strategy?” Because they can be tailored in any number of ways, you are far more likely — and rightly — to question your choices. The me...
by mrspock
Sun Oct 15, 2023 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Factor ETFs Fail to Deliver Their Promised Returns
Replies: 207
Views: 16371

Re: WSJ: Factor ETFs Fail to Deliver Their Promised Returns

10 years is a pretty short period. What’s the game plan then? Wait your entire retirement or accumulation phase only to find out this stuff doesn’t work, and you are screwed? Where is the logic in risking a messed up retirement, for what? 50 or 100bps you don’t even need? I’ve said this before, but these factor funds are just our generation’s (fill in the blank theme) “mutual funds” which scammed our parents in the 80s and 90s. They play to the bias many of us have (particularly techies and people of science) that we can control or apply statistical techniques and scientific principals to an extremely chaotic system. Good luck with that. A bit over the top, don’t you think? “Messed up retirement?” How? The only factor so far that would hav...
by mrspock
Sat Oct 14, 2023 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Factor ETFs Fail to Deliver Their Promised Returns
Replies: 207
Views: 16371

Re: WSJ: Factor ETFs Fail to Deliver Their Promised Returns

jebmke wrote: Sat Oct 14, 2023 9:28 am 10 years is a pretty short period.
What’s the game plan then? Wait your entire retirement or accumulation phase only to find out this stuff doesn’t work, and you are screwed?

Where is the logic in risking a messed up retirement, for what? 50 or 100bps you don’t even need?

I’ve said this before, but these factor funds are just our generation’s (fill in the blank theme) “mutual funds” which scammed our parents in the 80s and 90s. They play to the bias many of us have (particularly techies and people of science) that we can control or apply statistical techniques and scientific principals to an extremely chaotic system.

Good luck with that.
by mrspock
Sat Oct 14, 2023 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computer Upgrade for my Elderly Parents - Your Advice Appreciated
Replies: 59
Views: 5178

Re: Computer Upgrade for my Elderly Parents - Your Advice Appreciated

dukeblue219 wrote: Fri Oct 13, 2023 10:32 am Get them a Chromebook or Chromebox to minimize tech support needs.

They need long term reliability and zero chance of messing it up. A Mac Mini would be my second recommendation in the $500 range but it may require a bit more instruction.
This is the way. Mac mini if you can swing it. I buy a new one (Mac Mini) for my folks every 4 years or so. Does everything they need it to do, and has basically eliminated my “tech support” duties.

Definitely avoid Windows/PC IMO.
by mrspock
Mon Oct 09, 2023 3:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car Buying: What's the "smart default" for a Boglehead?
Replies: 113
Views: 37216

Re: Car Buying: What's the "smart default" for a Boglehead?

The default is that a car is a quickly depreciating asset, and is a mode of transportation, not a status symbol. On the other hand, given that car accidents are one of the leading causes of death in the early to middle age adults, it makes sense to consider safety, so the absolute cheapest car may not the best bargain. If OP wishes to optimize for safety, then OP should get a fairly heavy vehicle (think SUV), as the safety ratings quoted are relative to cars in the ”class”, not in absolute terms. i.e. 5 star rated mid-sized 3k lb car, is quite likely (unless the SUV is woefully deficient in some specific test) — overall, far less safe than a 3.5-4 star 7k lb SUV. Physics as it turns out… isn’t an environmentalist. You can compare death rat...
by mrspock
Sun Oct 08, 2023 11:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car Buying: What's the "smart default" for a Boglehead?
Replies: 113
Views: 37216

Re: Car Buying: What's the "smart default" for a Boglehead?

I can’t speak to specific brands, but if getting an ICE car, I’d avoid: - Anything with a turbo or supercharger (or heavens forbid… TWO of them!), they fail around 70-100k miles and are very expensive to replace. They also often require high octane gas as a result. I admit, this is getting harder these days, but there are still some options out there. - Anything which is solely direct injected. Get something with port injection (aka dual port injection). Direct injected cars require cleaning of carbon off (intake) valves about every 50-70k miles, which requires removal of the intake port. All of which is expensive. Port injected cars spray fuel on the valves, dissolving the carbon in the process. - Anything with a lot of non-mainstream gizm...
by mrspock
Sun Oct 08, 2023 11:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [New] CA tax hike next year for high earners
Replies: 101
Views: 10087

Re: [New] CA tax hike next year for high earners

If you think a bit, it’s very actionable. Taxes in various states are integral to how many folks plan their retirement (when and where), household budget, invest and where to live while employed (especially important if you are a remote worker). Give me an action he should take. Retire so he doesn't have to pay it? Move to a different state? Well he could have done that in the past to save 40k+. For whatever reason, that wasn't an appealing option. I know whining about CA taxes is hobby to most residents but most of them also find enough value not to move. If you don't, you should move. There are a bunch of taxes in my state I think are stupidly high. But complaining doesn't do anything. I gave four of them? But here’s a bonus: It’s import...
by mrspock
Sun Oct 08, 2023 11:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [New] CA tax hike next year for high earners
Replies: 101
Views: 10087

Re: [New] CA tax hike next year for high earners

mildly worth hearing about not interesting, not actionable, and definitely not huge plus or minus $4k is a rounding error I wonder if that attitude will persist next time someone posts a thread about tax software discount. Getting a discount is actionable. This tax really isn't. OP could move but given that a 13% income tax wasn't a problem, do you really think another 1% is the breaking point? And yes any tax I pay is huge. Anyone you pay really isn't that big of deal....). If you think a bit, it’s very actionable. Taxes in various states are integral to how many folks plan their retirement (when and where), household budget, invest and where to live while employed (especially important if you are a remote worker). This is a new payroll t...
by mrspock
Sun Oct 08, 2023 4:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [New] CA tax hike next year for high earners
Replies: 101
Views: 10087

Re: [New] CA tax hike next year for high earners

randomguy wrote: Sun Oct 08, 2023 3:53 pm
Hyperchicken wrote: Sun Oct 08, 2023 2:50 pm
mildly worth hearing about
not interesting, not actionable, and definitely not huge
plus or minus $4k is a rounding error
I wonder if that attitude will persist next time someone posts a thread about tax software discount.
Getting a discount is actionable. This tax really isn't. OP could move but given that a 13% income tax wasn't a problem, do you really think another 1% is the breaking point? And yes any tax I pay is huge. Anyone you pay really isn't that big of deal....).
If you think a bit, it’s very actionable. Taxes in various states are integral to how many folks plan their retirement (when and where), household budget, invest and where to live while employed (especially important if you are a remote worker).
by mrspock
Sun Oct 08, 2023 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [New] CA tax hike next year for high earners
Replies: 101
Views: 10087

Re: [New] CA tax hike next year for high earners

Hyperchicken wrote: Sun Oct 08, 2023 2:50 pm
mildly worth hearing about
not interesting, not actionable, and definitely not huge
plus or minus $4k is a rounding error
I wonder if that attitude will persist next time someone posts a thread about tax software discount.
Indeed. Heard about this already, will cost me tens of thousands, which isn’t chump change. Luckily I’ll be retiring in the next couple years, and likely exiting the state… so it will be somebody else’s problem.
by mrspock
Sat Sep 30, 2023 5:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: deleted
Replies: 84
Views: 9620

Re: Are we seat warmers?

Nod and smile. Then when you retire in your early 50s, invite them down to the cabin for a day on your boat. :D
by mrspock
Thu Sep 28, 2023 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: With rising yields, owning a home looks less attractive
Replies: 183
Views: 17224

Re: With rising yields, owning a home looks less attractive

rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 28, 2023 12:07 pm The benefit of home ownership is locking in most of your cost of living other than insurance and property taxes.

I bet twenty years from now that rents will double again.
I bet it’s darn close when you include opportunity costs for the monthly mortgage payment, down payment, plus capital gains taxes if you have to sell before death. In some areas, you probably lose pretty handily.
by mrspock
Sun Sep 10, 2023 10:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking of Departing the Formation [Moving to a financial advisor]
Replies: 178
Views: 23397

Re: Thinking of Departing the Formation

My brutal honesty: the very few money managers who can consistently, on a risk adjusted basis , outperform the market by 1.5-2%, are not going to manage portfolios of this size. These folks manage billions of dollars , and even then, there are lots of people who were simply lucky for a time. What will likely happen, is they will jack the risk of you portfolio in an effort to outperform, and, over time lose a lot of your money, or if your are lucky, simply underperform. I’d highly recommend your educate yourself a bit more, especially reacquainting yourself with statistics around how successful professional money managers are. The entire point of being a Boglehead — and why it is such a successful investing methodology — is it avoids the ver...
by mrspock
Wed Sep 06, 2023 2:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do we have too much in 401K and IRA?
Replies: 67
Views: 7437

Re: Do we have too much in 401K and IRA?

With that kinda dough… I wouldn’t look at retirement as no longer working, but rather just taking control of your own calendar & day. For me, that’s far more important than whether I’m technically “working” or not.

I’ve observed, quite often, people often make the most money of their lives when they own their own time.
by mrspock
Tue Sep 05, 2023 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5210
Views: 828658

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Why aren’t you 100% SCV? As mrspock said, this is a false equivalency. US TSM is a haystack that a passive investor can reasonably own. SCV is not a haystack as you only capture 4% of US TSM. Please keep your market timing talk at bay, we aren't interested in that. You are omitting over 75% of global GDP with US TSM only investing. It’s comical that you think you own the haystack, you do not. Not even close Why do you keep going back to GDP (hmmm)? Most of the world's GDP is not investable, that is why market cap (investable) statistics, and much of which is publicly traded, is basically un-investable for reasons I already articulated. As for market cap, market cap weighting is the entire basis of the S&P 500 on which the original Bogl...
by mrspock
Tue Sep 05, 2023 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5210
Views: 828658

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Why aren’t you 100% SCV? This is what is called a false equivalency. The market cap -- and thus diversification -- of Total Market US is very different than SCV. We don’t know if that’s some permanent outperformance, do you have 100 years of investing left to roll the dice on that theory that US always outperforms forever and always? This over simplifies the decision making process (most) investors actually use to come up with their investing plans. Folks do not simply look at past performance, and make decision based on that single data point. The factors which go into creating a Boglehead personal investment plan is far more complex than this. While most Bogleheads share the values of seeking diversification (large numbers of stocks held...