Search found 355 matches

by mrspock
Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do large personal portfolios include bonds?
Replies: 142
Views: 9112

Re: Why do large personal portfolios include bonds?

Bogleheads post by John Norstad: “The 16 years from 1966 through 1981 were indeed a period when stocks went nowhere (actually less than nowhere – they went backwards). Using the “Fama/French Factors” data at Ken French’s web site for the total stock market (not just large caps), the total return in...
by mrspock
Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 103
Views: 8557

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

22twain wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:23 am
The title of this thread reminded me of a long-ago book on a completely different subject:

"The Grass Is Always Greener Over the Septic Tank"

Might be a useful bit of financial wisdom, too. 8-)
It could be.... or might not apply here at all. So far for 10 years running it’s the latter.
by mrspock
Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 103
Views: 8557

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

" The behavior gap " is a thing. ..." .. Investment policy, as it has been developed here, depends in the first place on a choice by the investor of either the defensive (passive) or aggressive (enterprising) role. The aggressive investor must have a considerable knowledge of security values—enough...
by mrspock
Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 103
Views: 8557

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

First, read the wiki definition on “diversification”. Note how performance of the diversified portfolio relies on the expected returns of the constituent parts. Now, decide for yourself what the expected returns are for US vs non-US (do this based on experience, hard data, valuations, political risk...
by mrspock
Sat Jun 15, 2019 1:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Paradox of CCRC Funding!
Replies: 11
Views: 1428

Re: Paradox of CCRC Funding!

So $1.5M + $7-9k per month in fees? Wouldn’t the fees alone require $2.1-2.7m to fund at a 4% SWR? Or am I missing something here? Correction: Ohh... nm I didn’t notice the 12k/month in income. Feels really pricey to me, can one not hire a nurse or does Medicare pay for in-home assistance/care? The ...
by mrspock
Wed Jun 12, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What financial information do you wish was more commonly known?
Replies: 46
Views: 7423

Re: What financial information do you wish was more commonly known?

4. boglehead forums :D Honestly ... this. I’ll pretty much owe 15 or so years of my retirement to this forum. Before this forum I didn’t know how to invest my high savings rate in a way which allowed me to sleep at night. I also didn’t understand how to figure out how much I needed to retire, when ...
by mrspock
Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What financial information do you wish was more commonly known?
Replies: 46
Views: 7423

Re: What financial information do you wish was more commonly known?

When your RSUs vest, there is no magical tax break for holding them a year. The long term capital gains tax rate is completely unrelated to RSUs, and applies to all equities. If your intent is to sell the RSUs, sell them immediately and buy what you really want for your AA (e.g. an index fund). I wo...
by mrspock
Wed Jun 12, 2019 3:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job opportunity - KSA/Bahrain
Replies: 66
Views: 5292

Re: Job opportunity - KSA/Bahrain

Pass. Double pass if any kids are girls. My fear would be if it actually got successful, I might be forced into a faustian bargain between my family and continuing to make big money. This also feels like a false choice to me. It isn't KSA/Bahrain vs. Current. It's KSA/Bahrain vs. Current vs. <whatev...
by mrspock
Wed Jun 12, 2019 3:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Central Air Conditioning Troubleshooting
Replies: 18
Views: 1103

Re: Central Air Conditioning Troubleshooting

Go outside and see if the unit is turning on vs. your blower fan near your furnace. If the outside unit isn't turning on it could be as simple as swapping out the capacitor. You can go on Youtube and learn how to diagnose & replace this. Here's an OK guide I found as well: https://sansone-ac.com/how...
by mrspock
Sun Jun 09, 2019 9:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I'm thinking about buying a supercar anyone here done this and feedback?
Replies: 241
Views: 12967

Re: I'm thinking about buying an exotic supercar anyone here done this and feedback?

Time to move to 50/50, top threads are about 100% equities, buying super cars and buying multi-million dollar houses. :shock:
by mrspock
Sun Jun 09, 2019 7:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Life Strategy Vs. Investment Strategy
Replies: 14
Views: 1382

Re: Life Strategy Vs. Investment Strategy

Aim for FIRE? Why bother waiting for 65? Why not 50 or 55? What can you do to reel in the retirement date? Or if you don’t want to retire then the “I’m going to do whatever the F I want regardless of money date.” It’s this which motivates me. I consider it a journey for my financial freedom, and I’m...
by mrspock
Sun Jun 09, 2019 6:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 1.5 millon in cash to invest
Replies: 22
Views: 2415

Re: 1.5 millon in cash to invest

I don’t know much about VASGX, but looking at the performance, I find the name ironic. Unless the “life strategy” is to not make any money and work longer. What’s your rationale for having this in the portfolio over a broad based index fund ala VTI or VOO? Well It is a 80/20 distribution, with a do...
by mrspock
Sun Jun 09, 2019 4:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 1.5 millon in cash to invest
Replies: 22
Views: 2415

Re: 1.5 millon in cash to invest

If I made a million a year and I had a taxable account that big, I would put 99% in VTI. The other 1% would be in money market for expenses. Makes no sense (to me anyway, you might consult a CPA) to pay taxes on all the divendends that are thrown from the bonds. Bonds are fine in taxable if you hav...
by mrspock
Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 1.5 millon in cash to invest
Replies: 22
Views: 2415

Re: 1.5 millon in cash to invest

I don’t know much about VASGX, but looking at the performance, I find the name ironic. Unless the “life strategy” is to not make any money and work longer. What’s your rationale for having this in the portfolio over a broad based index fund ala VTI or VOO?
by mrspock
Sat Jun 08, 2019 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to start outsourcing?
Replies: 21
Views: 1997

Re: How to start outsourcing?

My advice would be to start with a cleaner/laundry service and see how you feel with life after that. Personal trainers — if you use one for maybe a month you will get the idea. Use an app like “Lose It” to keep yourself accountable. Stylist — No idea I haven’t used one. There are some virtual styli...
by mrspock
Sat Jun 08, 2019 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15379

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

... What often flows as an outcome from the "bonds are for safety" heuristic is a portfolio that has a lower risk-adjusted return and less diversification than would be produced by a more rational heuristic. I think you are bang on. I think this is one of the biggest behavioural mistakes being made...
by mrspock
Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Convince me not to try to time the market
Replies: 27
Views: 2031

Re: Convince me not to try to time the market

...and there's also a marketwatch.com article today about how the DOW is going to 40,000. So which are you going to believe? Lord, I hope he’s right! :sharebeer But I do I love this part: Lamoureux said he had 10% exposure to stocks at the start of the year, but is ready to move that to 50%, and ma...
by mrspock
Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 7558

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

Not surprised in the least. Still holding 0% international in my AA, just got back from travels in Europe.... sufficed to say after nearly having to beg for my bill each time so I could leave (you “rent” the table for the night), and get yelled at because I sat at a table to drink my latte (after n...
by mrspock
Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What flagship (even used) item is better than a budget new item?
Replies: 131
Views: 7690

Re: What flagship (even used) item is better than a budget new item?

1. MacBook Pro or Air laptops. I have my 2011 MacBook Pro and it’s still going strong... unbelievable. I kinda want it to die so I can buy a new one :) . 2. Boots/Casual Shoes ... Frye will last you a lifetime, both in style and quality. Hand made, and quality you feel when you put them on. 3. Motor...
by mrspock
Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Problem at Vanguard?
Replies: 42
Views: 5241

Re: Problem at Vanguard?

It's 7:10pm EDT and Vanguard hasn't updated my balances yet. Usually it happens at 6:30pm sharp. Anyone else notice this? My values are still from yesterday. mindboggling: I look at my balances twice a year. It is probably too often. :happy Best wishes. Taylor Good thing you are with Vanguard and n...
by mrspock
Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 7558

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

To be fair OP is bringing some new data points to table. What new points are those? It seems to me that it's just the same story that it's been for a long while now: the U.S. is continuing to outperform ex-U.S. at a significant pace. His thesis starts below The U.S. Dealt With the Crisis—Nobody Els...
by mrspock
Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 7558

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

Here we go on the U.S./ex. U.S. merry-go-round again. "Bogle was right! Ex-U.S. has gone nowhere for decades! The U.S. is the cat's meow!" etc. etc. "Bogle was just lucky. The EMH says that everything is priced in. You just believe in the ridiculous American 'exceptionalism' argument and past perfo...
by mrspock
Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 7558

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

Not surprised in the least. Still holding 0% international in my AA, just got back from travels in Europe.... sufficed to say after nearly having to beg for my bill each time so I could leave (you “rent” the table for the night), and get yelled at because I sat at a table to drink my latte (after no...
by mrspock
Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Convince me to sell ESPP / Company Stock
Replies: 22
Views: 1130

Re: Convince me to sell ESPP / Company Stock

I think once you account for (CG) taxes, you’ll find it’s exceedingly hard to beat VTI or VOO, which will never incur capital gains taxes since you can hold till you drop dead. The same cannot be said of company stock. The other point I’d make is: only take as much risk as you need to achieve your r...
by mrspock
Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does heavy passive investing create systemic risk for investors?
Replies: 8
Views: 729

Re: Does heavy passive investing create systemic risk for investors?

I hope it does! It will be the investing opportunity of a lifetime. Sadly though...no, I don't think so. There are plenty of actors in the stock market who will identify mis-pricing and work to close the gaps. These actors will always be paid handsomely for this task, earning returns which exceed in...
by mrspock
Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are we downsizing too much?
Replies: 63
Views: 4687

Re: Are we downsizing too much?

Jeeez as an unmarried person w/o kids, I’m starting to feel self conscious in my 4/3 2300 sqft place :shock: . Honestly I don’t know what I’d do without a dedicated room for my ironing board, office and guest room, where will the kids go? :D
by mrspock
Mon Jun 03, 2019 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2091
Views: 153433

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

I must say, the last week has been a stunning demonstration of risk parity in action. After seeing this (and many similar episodes in the past months), I’m tempted to move to VGLT in my primary 80/20 portfolio over the intermediate muni bonds, seems like the better risk to take over any potential mu...
by mrspock
Sun Jun 02, 2019 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11010
Views: 1920097

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

...If you have money to buy when there is a sale, you should have already had that money in the market. You shouldn't hold money around to buy when there is a sale. Time in the market, not timing the market. That depends on how much money and how long. In my case, I'm dealing with <1% of portfolio ...
by mrspock
Sun Jun 02, 2019 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Ray Dalio's Risk Parity "All-Weather" portfolio?
Replies: 14
Views: 1965

Re: Thoughts on Ray Dalio's Risk Parity "All-Weather" portfolio?

Not a fan, way too conservative for me, plus gold & commodities have a very poor risk premium (negative). How did Delio do in other years? How does he suggest the AA change for different ages or risk tolerances? I could have been positive holding BND in 2018, so who cares, that's not hard. Also max ...
by mrspock
Sat Jun 01, 2019 9:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Santa Fe real estate
Replies: 64
Views: 4106

Re: Santa Fe real estate

You need to think bigger. You can get 57000 acres in Australia for $866k AUD: https://naiharcourts.com.au/Property/310170/QTW091114/57000ac-Hippong-Station Anyone wanna go halfsies with me? I don’t know the first thing about running a ranch or cattle but what the hell, I can’t resist a deal on a sma...
by mrspock
Sat Jun 01, 2019 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying stocks rather than prepaying short-term, low interest rate debt
Replies: 13
Views: 1042

Re: Buying stocks rather than prepaying short-term, low interest rate debt

Honestly, what I often do with these sorts of situations is “split the difference”. I’ll pay off half. If I’m not absolutely sure what the right course is, and I’ve researched as much as possible, then this always seems like the prudent course. In the worst case I’m only in half as much trouble, or ...
by mrspock
Sat Jun 01, 2019 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you all do in the month of May, 2019
Replies: 125
Views: 9773

Re: How did you all do in the month of May, 2019

I’m down a cool $80k, but TLH’d $2k. I’m hoping for a solid 14% drop so I can complete my TLH wheel from December and get everything back to Vanguard funds.

Fun month. Good luck all!
by mrspock
Sat Jun 01, 2019 2:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2091
Views: 153433

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Let's stay on topic here, I don't think Hedgefundie has any ill intent here. He, and others were kind enough to share their investment ideas, along with extensive analysis, took feedback, did MORE analysis and shared again. You can't ask more from a Boglehead forum member. I think this forum is larg...
by mrspock
Fri May 31, 2019 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11010
Views: 1920097

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Finally had some fun, wiped out $2k in taxes with some TLH'ing, proud owner of some VTI. Now back to boredom... wake me up when the S&P hits 2300. As for a crash....I suspect I'll win either way. I think there's win either way, in the case of a crash, we'll no longer have the cloud of an "old bull" ...
by mrspock
Wed May 29, 2019 12:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I being too timid?
Replies: 23
Views: 3071

Re: Am I being too timid?

First, take a deep breath. You are doing a great job accumulating (which is honestly the hardest part for most), you are also young with plenty of accumulation time, and have no debt (yay!). Now you now need to dial in your AA, which is a key piece of the puzzle, and honestly something we all strugg...
by mrspock
Sat May 25, 2019 8:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Relationship mortgage discounts for moving a million assets
Replies: 185
Views: 15288

Re: Relationship mortgage discounts for moving a million assets

.... or just goto a credit union. Patelco 3.0% 5/1 ARM done. None of this goofy AUM nonsense. It’s probably not the absolute lowest, but darn close, without the hassles. Okay, but the 10/1 ARM is 3.375%, which is exactly Citi's rate without the relationship discount. It's a difference of 0.5% - do ...
by mrspock
Sat May 25, 2019 7:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Relationship mortgage discounts for moving a million assets
Replies: 185
Views: 15288

Re: Relationship mortgage discounts for moving a million assets

.... or just goto a credit union. Patelco 3.0% 5/1 ARM done. None of this goofy AUM nonsense.

It’s probably not the absolute lowest, but darn close, without the hassles.
by mrspock
Fri May 24, 2019 7:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fly cross-country with a cat
Replies: 56
Views: 2124

Re: Fly cross-country with a cat

Very disrespectful to fellow travelers. Personally... I’d take a cat or dog over a random human child. As for allergies, while I empathize with those who might suffer, if its between the potential death of a family member due to riding in cargo for things like a x-country move, I think some tempora...
by mrspock
Fri May 24, 2019 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here
Replies: 151
Views: 14652

Re: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here

... There is indeed a lot of very conservative people here. My concern is the ultra conservative talk scares away prospective people who come here to learn, read some of these ultra conservative views and decide they can never achieve financial independence and resign themselves to not eve trying. ...
by mrspock
Fri May 24, 2019 2:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I take an 85+% pay cut for fun?
Replies: 88
Views: 12781

Re: Can I take an 85+% pay cut for fun?

The 4% SWR is for a tax free 30 year withdrawal. For a 50 year time frame, after taxes, and taking into account today's historically low bond yields, even 2.6% seems risky. 2.6% is the lowest SWR I've seen mentioned, much less referred to as "risky" What data/simulation is that number based on? A g...
by mrspock
Thu May 23, 2019 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $400,000 gift to stepdaughter
Replies: 76
Views: 8689

Re: $400,000 gift to stepdaughter

I find it interesting the comments that for someone that didn't go to college and has little chance of financial security that $15k a year is not going to make much of difference. That is more than 1/4 of what the average US family makes a year. A 25% boost to the average family, which it seems she...
by mrspock
Thu May 23, 2019 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11010
Views: 1920097

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I find it very interesting that while economy seems to be doing just fine and we are seeing record unemployment, etc, S&P 500 is actually back to where it was about 18 months ago. Welcome to a bear market. Of course, it will only be recognized widely after 6-12 more months of this, but seems pretty...
by mrspock
Tue May 21, 2019 1:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Very High Net Worth, elite private or “good” public
Replies: 278
Views: 17961

Re: High net worth, elite private or “good” public

There are always lots of anecdotes addressing this question (My kids did x and they are [fine / disastrous]) Studies are difficult (can't do a true random controlled study) but they have found ways of isolating the effects of public vs. private. This is a recent example. https://www.wbur.org/herean...
by mrspock
Mon May 20, 2019 4:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: remodeling costs in san francisco
Replies: 27
Views: 2566

Re: remodeling costs in san francisco

$80k per bathroom is pretty high IMO. 2 years ago I gutted an entire 1500sqft house in San Jose for $90k, no structural, but fully repainted, brand new floors (scraped hardwood, marble & travertine floors), leathered granite counters, new plumbing fixtures/tubs/sinks/toilets (kohler), new cabinets (...
by mrspock
Thu May 16, 2019 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11010
Views: 1920097

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

It's a good day for the markets. I've noticed market timers are somewhat like gamblers. You hear about it when they are winning, but you can hear crickets in the background when they're losing. I try to avoid the temptation of market timing (both doing it and talking about it). Good day indeed! Add...
by mrspock
Wed May 15, 2019 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10,000% inflation in USA?
Replies: 19
Views: 1515

Re: 10,000% inflation in USA?

Yes actually I can rule it out. Done. Life is too short to worry about this sort of nonsense.
by mrspock
Wed May 15, 2019 3:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you reward yourself for achieving a financial goal?
Replies: 107
Views: 6575

Re: Do you reward yourself for achieving a financial goal?

At $1M invested my reward was a brand new Ford F-150 truck. I got there... didn't buy the truck. Then I said $2M... got there... couldn’t do it again. Long story short... I value my (retirement) time more than some dumb truck :) . Still driving my old car... maybe after my new goal (outright retirem...
by mrspock
Tue May 14, 2019 6:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inherited ranch
Replies: 97
Views: 7901

Re: Inherited ranch

Definitely no. You dont do business with family. This. My answer would be a polite but firm no. To even ask for an “interest free” 20 year loan seems a bit absurd to me. I’d re-word it to them (if loan was 250k @ 5%): “Hey would you mind giving me $250k in 20 years? Because you know... we are famil...
by mrspock
Sat May 11, 2019 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best month to visit London?
Replies: 40
Views: 3087

Re: Best month to visit London?

May is my favorite month in London. Temperatures are up a bit, the sun is shining more regularly, and spring is magnificent there. Summer gets hot. Although the temps look good on a chart, As the previous poster noted, London is not well air-conditioned! September is also nice. Europe in summer is ...
by mrspock
Sat May 11, 2019 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2091
Views: 153433

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

I initially read his post the same way you did, and even had a reply which I subsequently deleted. After re-reading, I believe he's only going to risk 10% of his portfolio, but commit only 50% of that to this strategy, with the remainder committed to a more conventional "Bogle-esque" asset allocati...