Search found 395 matches

by mrspock
Tue Jul 16, 2019 11:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?
Replies: 26
Views: 3181

Re: Should I start indexing NOW in current Market?

Hi all, After reading a few investment books I started investing a few years ago in the target date index fund with vanguard. I took out the money because something came up and I’m ready to start investing again. I was going to buy the total stock fund VTSAX. My question is, I know the market is cu...
by mrspock
Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgages and RSUs
Replies: 15
Views: 1174

Re: Mortgages and RSUs

My advice is to count either half, or the actual dollar value they use each year which is then converted into shares. Zero out or discount the growth. I have my own conservative estimates as to what these RSUs will be worth in the future. What I'm trying to understand however is how underwriters wi...
by mrspock
Sun Jul 14, 2019 3:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgages and RSUs
Replies: 15
Views: 1174

Re: Mortgages and RSUs

My advice is to count either half, or the actual dollar value they use each year which is then converted into shares. Zero out or discount the growth. I’d also really consider trading off commute, or size before going down the RSU route. While the Bay Area is expensive, the variance is extremely hig...
by mrspock
Thu Jul 11, 2019 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2603
Views: 200220

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

I wonder if M1 is scratching their heads at all this TMF & UPRO they now have in their brokerage :D . Nevermind in 20 years....
by mrspock
Tue Jul 09, 2019 9:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pickup truck issue!!
Replies: 39
Views: 2774

Re: Pickup truck issue!!

Pull the part number and find how much the part costs. I’d also read up on forums to see what’s involved in changing it out, to make sure the quote seems sane. Taking the cab off seems like a red flag... very very few parts in a car or truck would require such a thing, so I’d want 3rd party verifica...
by mrspock
Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 27099

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

... It probably shouldn't bother me, but when I see these folks being unwilling to take on the slim possibility of reducing their spending from $400k to $250k in retirement and keep working for another 5-10 years as a result, I can't help but shake my head. I can't believe people would work at a jo...
by mrspock
Sun Jul 07, 2019 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was the great bond bull market just plain bull?
Replies: 47
Views: 5152

Re: Was the great bond bull market just plain bull?

1. Bogleheads are heavily biased to believe interest rates will go back up. There’s 0 evidence anything of the sort is going to happen. If they stay low to negative for 20 years, the 50/50 crowd is going to be destroyed. ... Number 1 is vague. Not sure how you figure the 50/50 crowd is going to be ...
by mrspock
Sun Jul 07, 2019 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was the great bond bull market just plain bull?
Replies: 47
Views: 5152

Re: Was the great bond bull market just plain bull?

It has never been clear to me how there can be a forty year bull market in securities that mature within thirty years. PJW The rate at which the average yield of long term treasuries is declining is independent of the bond duration, which might run counter to many instincts & intuitions. For exampl...
by mrspock
Sun Jul 07, 2019 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was the great bond bull market just plain bull?
Replies: 47
Views: 5152

Re: Was the great bond bull market just plain bull?

5. Being too conservative with your investing is a risk in of itself (not just 100k’s of bonds... but the most conservative ones money can buy). You will likely have less capital in the future, making its own potential problems should the market fall. others have commented on your other points. I'l...
by mrspock
Sun Jul 07, 2019 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was the great bond bull market just plain bull?
Replies: 47
Views: 5152

Re: Was the great bond bull market just plain bull?

My ponderings on this topic: 1. Bogleheads are heavily biased to believe interest rates will go back up. There’s 0 evidence anything of the sort is going to happen. If they stay low to negative for 20 years, the 50/50 crowd is going to be destroyed. 2. LTT are compensated for increased rates, as th...
by mrspock
Sun Jul 07, 2019 2:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to avoid industries I do not want to invest in?
Replies: 54
Views: 3611

Re: How to avoid industries I do not want to invest in?

Your life will be less complicated when you come to terms with the fact that your choices have very little impact at all upon the world in general. I shudder to think of the consequences for the world if everyone thought this way. And it also misses the obvious point that your choices define the ki...
by mrspock
Sun Jul 07, 2019 12:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was the great bond bull market just plain bull?
Replies: 47
Views: 5152

Re: Was the great bond bull market just plain bull?

... 2. long term bonds are generally not recommended because the reward is not enough to make up for the extra risk. Case in point: total bond market (intermediate) has a yield of 2.54% and average duration of 6 years. long term bond market has a yield of 3.32% and an average duration of 15.1 years...
by mrspock
Sat Jul 06, 2019 11:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to avoid industries I do not want to invest in?
Replies: 54
Views: 3611

Re: How to avoid industries I do not want to invest in?

Your life will be less complicated when you come to terms with the fact that your choices have very little impact at all upon the world in general. This. SRI strikes me as the “easy way out”, skip the hard stuff and just do SRI. Easy right? Except the world doesn’t work that way. Change is *hard*.....
by mrspock
Fri Jul 05, 2019 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Refinements to Hedgefundie's excellent approach
Replies: 101
Views: 7014

Re: Refinements to Hedgefundie's excellent approach

Check out the content in the original thread on 20 trading day "Inverse Volatility" monthly rebalancing (you can backtest this on PV with UPROSIM/TMFSIM). There's some consensus that this might be a more systematic approach to rebalancing, though I wouldn't say it's universal consensus.
by mrspock
Fri Jul 05, 2019 11:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 50-60k boat purchase??
Replies: 82
Views: 4601

Re: 50-60k boat purchase??

Worst. Idea. Ever. Instead, join HedgeFundie's Adventure (search for thread), invest it, and buy a Yacht like the rest of us in about 20 years.
by mrspock
Fri Jul 05, 2019 10:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Invest $2-3M now and how? Index vs self made stock portfolio? How's my Portfolio?
Replies: 111
Views: 6712

Re: Invest $2-3M now and how? Index vs self made stock portfolio? How's my Portfolio?

Regarding BRK. Few should ever compare themselves to Mr. Buffet, what he does is not easy, and the way Berkshire has operated for the last 25 years or so is not a model your "average joe" can do himself. You just won't get "the call" during a time of financial stress (like in 2008), or when a large ...
by mrspock
Fri Jul 05, 2019 7:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Invest $2-3M now and how? Index vs self made stock portfolio? How's my Portfolio?
Replies: 111
Views: 6712

Re: Invest $2-3M now and how? Index vs self made stock portfolio? How's my Portfolio?

My first reaction: you are going to under perform the indexes and be crushed by capital gains taxes along the way as your positions need to be sold. Read more on indexing, you need to learn more, it’s about far more than just avoiding “stock picking”. It’s about after tax returns (including for your...
by mrspock
Fri Jul 05, 2019 4:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: buying a 60 or 65 inch tv this weekend. which one?
Replies: 74
Views: 3356

Re: buying a 60 or 65 inch tv this weekend. which one?

Klangfool- Costco doesn't have any oled tv for a good price. Bloom2708- sounds like a great deal. am leaning towards this OLED. Any suggestion for a good tv wall mount for above my fireplace? I already have a tv mount but there is no tilt. ThankyouJack- I don't watch tv much . This may be the reaso...
by mrspock
Fri Jul 05, 2019 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2603
Views: 200220

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

For those that just might be thinking that this is a nearly guaranteed way to make big returns, UPRO is down -2.3% and TMF is down -4.9% this morning. It may be a real roller coaster ride. Fantastic day to buy more. Now down 4%/0.5%, both roughly 3x as advertised. I think everyone who is invested i...
by mrspock
Fri Jul 05, 2019 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11060
Views: 1939879

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I’ve determined the reason for today’s free fall: the jobs numbers were far better than expected, the obvious trade here is to sell everything. :confused
by mrspock
Wed Jul 03, 2019 6:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Day Has Come - Hit Retirement Number - Now What?
Replies: 103
Views: 10110

Re: The Day Has Come - Hit Retirement Number - Now What?

With the recent run-up in the market, I hit my retirement number today. House paid for, child through college, no real debt. I have 35 years of social security contributions (I've been working at least part time since I was 12), and wife will collect a healthy pension in 10+ years. She loves her jo...
by mrspock
Wed Jul 03, 2019 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unvested RSU Equity Exposure and AA
Replies: 14
Views: 373

Re: Unvested RSU Equity Exposure and AA

To be clear, today I sell all of my RSUs within hours of them hitting my account (whenever I wake up), and then re-distribute the funds per my AA. I didn't mean to imply I held onto my company stock because it more or less tracks the S&P 500 (a bad idea indeed). ... But I can see why you would count...
by mrspock
Wed Jul 03, 2019 1:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question for the 5%...Anyone buying any individual stocks?
Replies: 51
Views: 4303

Re: Question for the 5%...Anyone buying any individual stocks?

Zip, Ziltch... nada. The lion’s share of my AA is in taxable and it’s pretty much impossible to beat the s&p considering you will eventually need to sell and pay the tax man (which I don’t have to do with VTI until I drop dead... and even then... step up goodness). To echo John Bogle: it’s AFTER tax...
by mrspock
Wed Jul 03, 2019 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unvested RSU Equity Exposure and AA
Replies: 14
Views: 373

Unvested RSU Equity Exposure and AA

For those who have significant comp via RSUs, I’m curious how folks adjust their AA based on the implied equity exposure. For example, do you price in 3-6 months of your RSUs into your AA and carry more bonds to compensate for potential draw downs of your RSUs? I work for a mega corp which now track...
by mrspock
Wed Jul 03, 2019 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1317
Views: 124925

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

S&P is getting close to 3,000! I know... it doesn't really matter to us folks that have many years to retirement. Kind of a psychological achievement if/when it makes the leap over 3,000. Glad to have adopted the buy & hold philosophy, it seems like it'd be near impossible to perfectly time this ma...
by mrspock
Wed Jul 03, 2019 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Staying the course is so hard (support thread)
Replies: 110
Views: 10506

Re: Staying the course is so hard (support thread)

Houses can be sold, and they typically appreciate in the long run - they aren't exactly consumption... It's all about balance in my view. Don't go to extremes with frugality or with high spending. The same with early retirement. Don't go too extreme with that, and maybe stay employed at fewer hours...
by mrspock
Wed Jul 03, 2019 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Staying the course is so hard (support thread)
Replies: 110
Views: 10506

Re: Staying the course is so hard (support thread)

2400sqft is *not* a small house IMO :) . On some level, I empathize with your situation as I'm in a similar situation, with big spending peers around me. But it's exactly *this* you need to overcome. That "thing" you are feeling? Yearning perhaps? It's called gratification...and it's what you need t...
by mrspock
Tue Jul 02, 2019 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2603
Views: 200220

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Wow lots of bears out there! Some thoughts: 1. Limit orders ... they are a thing. Maybe you will sit there and let your gains draw down to 75%, but I won’t :) . It will sell and I’ll either move on or wait for calmer times. Yes yes... buy and hold... but I’m not in my taxable space so I don’t have t...
by mrspock
Mon Jul 01, 2019 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1317
Views: 124925

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

To be fair, in 2013 the market was up 100%, the bull was maybe 3 or 4 years years old. The market is now up some 300%, the bull is 10 years old, unemployment has nowhere to go but up, we are in a trade war, the yield curve has inverted etc. Now maybe, *this time* it’s different, but I think we all k...
by mrspock
Sun Jun 30, 2019 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1317
Views: 124925

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Futures are soaring tonight! It's amazing how much geopolitical events can move the stock market on a day-to-day basis. But most Bogleheads aren't trading the stock market day-to-day. Indeed. It would be nice to put some distance between the old 2018 highs. Lately it feels like I am doing all the h...
by mrspock
Sun Jun 30, 2019 8:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Intentional Divorce to avoid Marriage Penalties in tax code?
Replies: 54
Views: 4868

Re: Intentional Divorce to avoid Marriage Penalties in tax code?

I’m probably the last person on earth who would ever recommend marriage, but given you are married already... I don’t much see the point. I actually think upon death there are numerous benefits, which will probably outweigh any negatives right now. It will take a while but you will get “trued up” to...
by mrspock
Sun Jun 30, 2019 2:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tilting to VUG in California After-Tax?
Replies: 14
Views: 719

Re: Tilting to VUG in California After-Tax?

I don’t think what you want to do is a bad idea. But here are some thoughts: 1. VUG has 40% of holdings in just 10 stocks (usual suspects) vs 18% for VTI, seems a bit heavy to me. You are effectively reducing your diversification (likely increasing volatility of portfolio). 2. Are you using tax shel...
by mrspock
Wed Jun 26, 2019 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excluding International All Together?
Replies: 82
Views: 9193

Re: Excluding International All Together?

AerialWombat wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 6:51 am
Here we go again...

Can one of the many other US v ex-US threads just be “pinned” to the top of the board?
This. For the love of all that is good and just...

These threads never get anywhere.
by mrspock
Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Triage in ER - charged $790
Replies: 60
Views: 4375

Re: Triage in ER - charged $790

Boy stories like this make me think.... but the rational side of me says: pay the bill and move on. America has such a supremely low tax rate for those who live from investing you come out way ahead. For those pulling 100k per year in investing, you could get dinged by 20k per year in medical bills...
by mrspock
Mon Jun 24, 2019 7:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: what was your worst major purchase? mine is a 2019 mazda3
Replies: 182
Views: 15854

Re: what was your worst major purchase mine is a 2019 mazda3

Undergrad and dental school for ex-wife. $300k down the tubes for me. Pretty sure cash-flowing current wife's undergrad (2 more semesters) is going to be a better long-term purchase/investment. Well look at it this way: if marriage is a “team game” ... you were/are Messi or Gretzky or Brady or Jord...
by mrspock
Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: what was your worst major purchase? mine is a 2019 mazda3
Replies: 182
Views: 15854

Re: what was your worst major purchase? mine is a 2019 mazda3

This is easy: Mercedes c230 “coupe”. This smoldering pile of dog crap was driven by the dealership mechanic more than me. Worst. Car. Ever. The only redeeming quality was that I learned early to never buy “luxury” cars. When the manufacturer makes 100k defective cars per year.... you have a problem....
by mrspock
Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTI ETF question
Replies: 2
Views: 503

Re: VTI ETF question

My guess is this is just the ETF tracking error. To see the intraday NAV lookup ^VTI-IV in Yahoo finance and compare with VTI. If they track pretty good, it’s probably just a consequence of the NAV itself being a bit different vs the other fund. Edit: Just checked myself, seems like they are within ...
by mrspock
Sat Jun 22, 2019 7:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Getting caught up in minutia of investing-How to make things simple
Replies: 45
Views: 3760

Re: Getting caught up in minutia of investing-How to make things simple

Honestly, if you have anything from a 60/40 to a 80/20... it matters not a wit in the long run. You might get to spend (or save) a bit more here or less there depending on who’s crystal ball is better but you’ll be just fine if you keep your head on straight (and stay the course). I like you, read a...
by mrspock
Sat Jun 22, 2019 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Volatility Targeting Improves Risk Adjusted Returns
Replies: 32
Views: 2221

Re: Larry Swedroe: Volatility Targeting Improves Risk Adjusted Returns

I'm a bit surprised that this thread didn't get more attention. Volatility targeting has been demonstrated to be a very effective means of controlling downside risk with minimal negative impact on returns and potentially even positive impact. Building on vineviz's excellent post above, potentially ...
by mrspock
Sat Jun 22, 2019 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Volatility Targeting Improves Risk Adjusted Returns
Replies: 32
Views: 2221

Re: Larry Swedroe: Volatility Targeting Improves Risk Adjusted Returns

I'm a bit surprised that this thread didn't get more attention. Volatility targeting has been demonstrated to be a very effective means of controlling downside risk with minimal negative impact on returns and potentially even positive impact. Building on vineviz's excellent post above, potentially ...
by mrspock
Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do large personal portfolios include bonds?
Replies: 171
Views: 14223

Re: Why do large personal portfolios include bonds?

Bogleheads post by John Norstad: “The 16 years from 1966 through 1981 were indeed a period when stocks went nowhere (actually less than nowhere – they went backwards). Using the “Fama/French Factors” data at Ken French’s web site for the total stock market (not just large caps), the total return in...
by mrspock
Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 110
Views: 10158

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

22twain wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:23 am
The title of this thread reminded me of a long-ago book on a completely different subject:

"The Grass Is Always Greener Over the Septic Tank"

Might be a useful bit of financial wisdom, too. 8-)
It could be.... or might not apply here at all. So far for 10 years running it’s the latter.
by mrspock
Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 110
Views: 10158

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

" The behavior gap " is a thing. ..." .. Investment policy, as it has been developed here, depends in the first place on a choice by the investor of either the defensive (passive) or aggressive (enterprising) role. The aggressive investor must have a considerable knowledge of security values—enough...
by mrspock
Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 110
Views: 10158

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

First, read the wiki definition on “diversification”. Note how performance of the diversified portfolio relies on the expected returns of the constituent parts. Now, decide for yourself what the expected returns are for US vs non-US (do this based on experience, hard data, valuations, political risk...
by mrspock
Sat Jun 15, 2019 1:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Paradox of CCRC Funding!
Replies: 11
Views: 1473

Re: Paradox of CCRC Funding!

So $1.5M + $7-9k per month in fees? Wouldn’t the fees alone require $2.1-2.7m to fund at a 4% SWR? Or am I missing something here? Correction: Ohh... nm I didn’t notice the 12k/month in income. Feels really pricey to me, can one not hire a nurse or does Medicare pay for in-home assistance/care? The ...
by mrspock
Wed Jun 12, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What financial information do you wish was more commonly known?
Replies: 50
Views: 8643

Re: What financial information do you wish was more commonly known?

4. boglehead forums :D Honestly ... this. I’ll pretty much owe 15 or so years of my retirement to this forum. Before this forum I didn’t know how to invest my high savings rate in a way which allowed me to sleep at night. I also didn’t understand how to figure out how much I needed to retire, when ...
by mrspock
Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What financial information do you wish was more commonly known?
Replies: 50
Views: 8643

Re: What financial information do you wish was more commonly known?

When your RSUs vest, there is no magical tax break for holding them a year. The long term capital gains tax rate is completely unrelated to RSUs, and applies to all equities. If your intent is to sell the RSUs, sell them immediately and buy what you really want for your AA (e.g. an index fund). I wo...
by mrspock
Wed Jun 12, 2019 3:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job opportunity - KSA/Bahrain
Replies: 66
Views: 5543

Re: Job opportunity - KSA/Bahrain

Pass. Double pass if any kids are girls. My fear would be if it actually got successful, I might be forced into a faustian bargain between my family and continuing to make big money. This also feels like a false choice to me. It isn't KSA/Bahrain vs. Current. It's KSA/Bahrain vs. Current vs. <whatev...
by mrspock
Wed Jun 12, 2019 3:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Central Air Conditioning Troubleshooting
Replies: 18
Views: 1166

Re: Central Air Conditioning Troubleshooting

Go outside and see if the unit is turning on vs. your blower fan near your furnace. If the outside unit isn't turning on it could be as simple as swapping out the capacitor. You can go on Youtube and learn how to diagnose & replace this. Here's an OK guide I found as well: https://sansone-ac.com/how...
by mrspock
Sun Jun 09, 2019 9:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I'm thinking about buying a supercar anyone here done this and feedback?
Replies: 241
Views: 13582

Re: I'm thinking about buying an exotic supercar anyone here done this and feedback?

Time to move to 50/50, top threads are about 100% equities, buying super cars and buying multi-million dollar houses. :shock: