Search found 35 matches

by Wm_o_o_o
Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Google Dataset Search
Replies: 2
Views: 576

Re: New Google Dataset Search

Curious if anyone has made use of Google’s new Dataset Search, or if anyone has plans to try to get people to release their findings in a suitable format to be included in the eco system. https://www.blog.google/products/search/making-it-easier-discover-datasets/ Similar to how Google Scholar works...
by Wm_o_o_o
Sun Sep 16, 2018 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Likelihood of Success
Replies: 8
Views: 1230

Re: Likelihood of Success

Start with ordinary stuff, the more you save earlier on the greater your return on those savings is likely to be all things being equal.. I think you are asking questions no person can answer because (and you should hear this often on BH) not only can we not see *the* future, we specifically cannot ...
by Wm_o_o_o
Sun Sep 16, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Parallels between investing and fantasy football?
Replies: 14
Views: 978

Re: Parallels between investing and fantasy football?

bigred77 wrote:
Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:54 am
IMO, active management is preferable in fantasy football.
Active management is heresy in these parts :)
by Wm_o_o_o
Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Synchrony Bank Issues
Replies: 15
Views: 2135

Re: Synchrony Bank Issues

On every call I have made to a "banker" in Synchrony they have put me on a "two to five minute hold" (per their words) to check with their supervisor. This is becoming a 'pita' to me but I guess their APY makes up for it. I could do an ACH transfer from NFCU to Synchrony, but NFCU has a daily $5K l...
by Wm_o_o_o
Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 176
Views: 25541

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

I guess my devil's advocate argument is that there were so many experts with great records who missed 2008. And many who got 2008 right but got the aftermath wrong. We all know that we're experiencing debt levels high by historic standards. But, as Jack Bogle says, "nobody knows nuthin' ". In this ...
by Wm_o_o_o
Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 176
Views: 25541

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

maybe I'm a little dense this morning, but what unfunded pensions and health care liabilities is he talking about that would require federal intervention? (I get that many states are underfunded, but what does that have to do with US bonds? Hmmmn, so you mean it is only people from other places tha...
by Wm_o_o_o
Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lawyers vs. Advisors
Replies: 2
Views: 793

Re: Lawyers vs. Advisors

Litigation Tsunami Against Advisors The lawyers want some active management regarding AA before or in contemplation of a major market correction. The advisors in many cases are buy-and-holders. Can we litigate here ? I'm in Urp not Merka at the moment so I'd say no. Lawyers, advisors and others are...
by Wm_o_o_o
Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time to do value investing?
Replies: 37
Views: 2990

Re: Good time to do value investing?

Nedsaid: I would say that inflation feels like it is ticking up. Housing and healthcare are a couple areas I have seen inflation pressures. Objectively, harder to say, feelings are not facts. Other things keep falling in price too, particularly with such things as consumer electronics. The laptop I...
by Wm_o_o_o
Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time to do value investing?
Replies: 37
Views: 2990

Re: Good time to do value investing?

Good time to do nothing but buy the whole market. If I acted on my insight that we are in a bubble and I'd have shifted too soon. I would have missed out on the tech gains seen the last few years. There are some low pe companies, like Samsung... But im sure their price is what it is for a reason. I...
by Wm_o_o_o
Sun Sep 09, 2018 5:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: asset allocation -- why bond/stock split first?
Replies: 25
Views: 2250

Re: asset allocation -- why bond/stock split first?

The practice of bond/stock asset allocation first is derived from capital market line (CML). CML represents all combinations of tangency portfolio and risk-free asset. Depending on one's risk profile, his optimal investment will be on this line. At the risk of pointing out you have not been reading...
by Wm_o_o_o
Sun Sep 09, 2018 5:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: asset allocation -- why bond/stock split first?
Replies: 25
Views: 2250

Re: asset allocation -- why bond/stock split first?

Stocks are riskier than bonds, full stop. That difference matters a lot more than what type of stock you should hold, or what type of bonds you should hold. And as acegolfer points out this is foundational in Modern Portfolio Theory. Starting with bond / stock AA means you are starting with your ri...
by Wm_o_o_o
Sun Sep 09, 2018 4:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual Fund Fee Wars Will Encourage Bad Behavior
Replies: 26
Views: 2865

Re: Mutual Fund Fee Wars Will Encourage Bad Behavior

This is a ridiculous argument. [snip] He ends with this gem: I have always been of the opinion that investors have done best in high-fee products with high transactions costs, bought and held over time, which are a built-in form of “advisor alpha.” I will change my mind when I meet my first Vanguar...
by Wm_o_o_o
Sun Sep 09, 2018 4:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: D. E. Shaw fund prospectus - would you invest?
Replies: 35
Views: 2689

Re: D. E. Shaw fund prospectus - would you invest?

The presentation says there are only 13 analysts on the fund team, and these are student loan portfolios (probably thousands of individual loans) so unlikely they are working the debt in any meaningful way. Much more likely that they are just identifying cheap loan pools, buying and flipping. The m...
by Wm_o_o_o
Sun Sep 09, 2018 3:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: September 6,2018-Vanguard Introduces Low-Cost Total World Bond ETF
Replies: 48
Views: 6678

Re: September 6,2018-Vanguard Introduces Low-Cost Total World Bond ETF

I don't think "biggest debtors", be it individual issuers or countries is a good criteria for weighting bond investment selections. You do not think this information is priced in? No. Exhibit A is Japanese Treasury bonds which, if you index, are going to be your biggest position in a total internat...
by Wm_o_o_o
Sun Sep 09, 2018 3:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: September 6,2018-Vanguard Introduces Low-Cost Total World Bond ETF
Replies: 48
Views: 6678

Re: September 6,2018-Vanguard Introduces Low-Cost Total World Bond ETF

So, when do they announce a VT + BNDW ETF-of-ETFs? I feel the sarcasm, but I do wonder how far brokerage companies will push ETF wrappers in the future. Here we currently have an ETF that follows two additional ETFs (BNDX/BND) which themselves are a share class of two corresponding mutual funds. No...
by Wm_o_o_o
Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: D. E. Shaw fund prospectus - would you invest?
Replies: 35
Views: 2689

Re: D. E. Shaw fund prospectus - would you invest?

Here in Europe I get more more than 8% on my p2x loan investments, the secondary market is liquid, etc. I use mintos.com <-- not recommending, no commission, usual caveats, just saying as an example, I know there are other reliable p2x platforms native to the USA obviously this is not suitable for e...
by Wm_o_o_o
Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual Fund Fee Wars Will Encourage Bad Behavior
Replies: 26
Views: 2865

Re: Mutual Fund Fee Wars Will Encourage Bad Behavior

I am amused by why some people do'nt think the market will prevail. Think about it, on the one hand we allow debate about whether Fund Fee Wars are good or bad but never question whether Trade Wars are good or bad because that is politics or some such silliness? Grrrrrr. Edit: before I get modded, m...
by Wm_o_o_o
Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are the stock market movements really random?
Replies: 37
Views: 3236

Re: Are the stock market movements really random?

I used to think GNP, CPI, and Growth explained the market while observing Consumption holding quite steady when market's crashed, leading to future optimism. Why not buy and hold. Looking at Earnings, Dividends, and PE's the future has a tighter and responsive explanation but all that does is tempe...
by Wm_o_o_o
Fri Sep 07, 2018 2:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: asset allocation -- why bond/stock split first?
Replies: 25
Views: 2250

Re: asset allocation -- why bond/stock split first?

Bond / stock allocation comes first because it matters a whole lot more than domestic / international. See Nisiprius’s good work below to drive the point home: Bonds vs stocks: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=255308 US vs Intl stocks: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?...
by Wm_o_o_o
Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: asset allocation -- why bond/stock split first?
Replies: 25
Views: 2250

Re: asset allocation -- why bond/stock split first?

I've been revisiting my asset allocation and noticed the allocation often starts by determining the percentage bonds vs stocks in the portfolio, then sub-dividing each of these categories. The reason I ask is I've been thinking about it a bit differently. First I decide what percentage I want in do...
by Wm_o_o_o
Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time to do value investing?
Replies: 37
Views: 2990

Re: Good time to do value investing?

Interestingly, Vanguard was one of the first companies to introduce factor-based mutual funds, the Vanguard Growth Index Fund (VIGAX) and the Vanguard Value Index Fund (VIVAX). This forum is loosely focussed on "investing advice inspired by John C. Bogle." In his 2012 book, Clash of the Cultures , ...
by Wm_o_o_o
Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time to do value investing?
Replies: 37
Views: 2990

Re: Good time to do value investing?

So basically, if you look at things now , value companies have done worse than growth ones for perhaps 10 years or more in the US; and value regions (like Emerging markets that GMO keep recommending) have done poorly. So there has been a long underperfomance of value relative to growth. And if valu...
by Wm_o_o_o
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: September 6,2018-Vanguard Introduces Low-Cost Total World Bond ETF
Replies: 48
Views: 6678

Re: September 6,2018-Vanguard Introduces Low-Cost Total World Bond ETF

Sort of a bummer that there isn't a traditional mutual fund option available. The EUR / GBP / etc versions of this have been around for a few years as highly regarded traditional mutual fund(s). To quote Morningstar UK "The global multisector nature of Vanguard Bond Index GBP Hedged is designed to ...
by Wm_o_o_o
Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend variances per quarter
Replies: 6
Views: 1010

Re: Dividend variances per quarter

I had assumed that it was because a larger portion of ex-US companies issue dividends biannually, hence the higher December and June numbers. Yup, or, e.g. Tencent (2nd biggest holding in VTIAX) annually. Rule of thumb is that growing companies or companies with less stable income or seasonal incom...
by Wm_o_o_o
Sat Jul 28, 2018 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 12033

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

It's not free. My DW spends 30 dollars a month on mobile data for Instagram and Facebook. We're on project fi, so it's pay per MB used. Thats 360/yr. Equal to 50% of my annual transportation costs to work via bus. My apologies if this seems intrusive but why are you or anyone you know paying for In...
by Wm_o_o_o
Sat Jul 28, 2018 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 12033

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

I am old school and would rather invest in a company that “makes something”. Like rather invest in Tesla any day than an ad or service based company like Facebook. I remember ribbing colleagues who got in on FB their IPO and watched it drop from what they bought it at. I think it is up like 400% fr...
by Wm_o_o_o
Sat Jul 28, 2018 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 12033

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

bgf wrote:
Fri Jul 27, 2018 10:07 am

4) incredible cloud computing division.
4 is the one most people don't know about

In another post someone mentioned separating that from the rest. I know which bit I'd be interested in buying small part of.
by Wm_o_o_o
Sat Jul 28, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 12033

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

It's not free. My DW spends 30 dollars a month on mobile data for Instagram and Facebook. We're on project fi, so it's pay per MB used. Thats 360/yr. Equal to 50% of my annual transportation costs to work via bus. My apologies if this seems intrusive but why are you or anyone you know paying for In...
by Wm_o_o_o
Sat Jul 28, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 12033

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

Individual stocks do stuff like that. Here's what it actually looked like. The brownish line is what happened to Facebook. The black line is what happened to my holding of the Vangard Total Stock Market Index fund. Oh, the humanity! https://imgur.com/iwA8Gis.png I like that! My overall portfolio we...
by Wm_o_o_o
Sat Jul 28, 2018 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 12033

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

I told my 3 teen/young adult children that Facebook stock dropped considerably today. They all responded with "no surprise, I don't use it anymore and none of our friends do either. It is loaded with junk and ads. It's annoying". I am not a Facebooker, but I wonder if my social media-addicted child...
by Wm_o_o_o
Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value ETFs Are Sector Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1094

Re: Value ETFs Are Sector Funds

If you want a sector-neutral value fund, you can buy VLUE (iShares Edge MSCI U.S.A. Value Factor ETF). They pick the cheapest stocks in each sector and weight them to represent the sector's weight in the vanilla parent index. The downside right now is that AAPL ends up at 10% weight in the fund as ...
by Wm_o_o_o
Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where is the USA domestic investor ?
Replies: 11
Views: 1242

Re: Where is the USA domestic investor ?

So, here is the thing that I think is missing from the discussion: what proportion of the business done by (say) S&P 500 companies is entirely domestic USA ? Or are they really international companies ? It's only been missing if you haven't been reading the forum. It seems like every other post men...
by Wm_o_o_o
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value ETFs Are Sector Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1094

Re: Value ETFs Are Sector Funds

As the article touches on, some indexes are built in a way that they do not grossly overweight specific sectors compared to market cap, such as those from MSCI. This has the side effect of reintroducing price, which limits factor loading. Surely the subject premise is incorrect? "Value ETF's *may* ...
by Wm_o_o_o
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value ETFs Are Sector Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1094

Re: Value ETFs Are Sector Funds

http://www.etf.com/sections/etf-strategist-corner/betterment-0?nopaging=1 In a study of portfolios constructed using book-to-market ratios, almost all of the value premium came from individual stock selection, while sector biases provided no significant improvement in returns. Sectors do, however, ...
by Wm_o_o_o
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where is the USA domestic investor ?
Replies: 11
Views: 1242

Where is the USA domestic investor ?

Background: there are have been a number of discussions here (some ongoing) about USA vs Rest of World asset allocation. These tend to be repetitive. Another point of view: I live in the UK, if I look at the companies that make up the FTSE100 I see International businesses not UK businesses, they ju...