Search found 319 matches

by tmcc
Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%
Replies: 120
Views: 11453

Re: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%

What is Vanguard's track record with predicting future returns? garbage they put out the same emerging/international outperform guidance back in 2018 and if you followed it, you got crushed. if this is 9% from current levels, great..... still down 33% from 2018 2018 was 2 years ago, they're project...
by tmcc
Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%
Replies: 120
Views: 11453

Re: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:02 pm
What is Vanguard's track record with predicting future returns?
garbage

they put out the same emerging/international outperform guidance back in 2018 and if you followed it, you got crushed.

if this is 9% from current levels, great..... still down 33% from 2018
by tmcc
Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19244
Views: 2670858

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

wait I thought selloffs were bullish for stocks

am I looking at this upside down?
by tmcc
Thu Jun 11, 2020 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we buy fixer upper
Replies: 28
Views: 1565

Re: Should we buy fixer upper

I'm doing something similar right now. in hindsight, i would have rather spent another $200k for turnkey.

lastly, maybe this is just me - living in just 1400 sq ft with 2 kids during heavy construction sounds like the real problem
by tmcc
Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 1134
Views: 115961

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

(1) Put $80 k in RE ETF. Let’s assume you make 8% per year (after fees). After 9 years, your money would double to $160 k and after 18 years, your money would double again to $320 k. (2) Put $80 k (20% down payment) on $400 k house. Lets assume a modest 4% appreciation per year and your tenants pay...
by tmcc
Fri Jun 05, 2020 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1220
Views: 107187

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

I did 50% cash from 100% stocks on Feb 24th for reasons completely unrelated to COVID and bought back in by March 24th.

I got lucky twice. it comes in threes so I also buy lottery tickets now
by tmcc
Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Difficulty getting quotes from landscapers
Replies: 14
Views: 1398

Re: Difficulty getting quotes from landscapers

if the job is easy enough that you guy buy the equipment and do it youself, do it. landscapers are a pain in the rear end and typically lackluster in results.
by tmcc
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "If you were happy to buy it then" fallacy
Replies: 64
Views: 4155

Re: "If you were happy to buy it then" fallacy

FWIW one of the good habits this website has taught he is dont second guess the long term impact of investment timing matters, but time in the market matters more for those of us who cant spend every waking hours studying the intraday movements. i have a modest 100k to lump back in through pure coin...
by tmcc
Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Need, ability, willingness" with bonds yielding <1%
Replies: 53
Views: 3782

Re: "Need, ability, willingness" with bonds yielding <1%

What is interesting is that mortgages are not following the long bond yield.

ie you cant find a mortgage at 1.75 which is market + 100bps. rates are holding at 3% +/-

I wonder how long the market makers can prop up that market
by tmcc
Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 38010

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

I didnt read the thread but I'll speculate 2500 +/-

December 2018 lows

Under there its the trump inauguration lows barring some event like tax cuts that would be market moving
by tmcc
Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lost 23K on Monday
Replies: 97
Views: 9115

Re: Lost 23K on Monday

Can you give her a check for 23k? :D
by tmcc
Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?
Replies: 211
Views: 21067

Re: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?

100% S&P checking in

have $100k waiting to lump or DCA by pure coincidence
by tmcc
Sat Feb 29, 2020 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3962
Views: 300314

Re: Corona-panic and the market

Stay the course but buy a mask. The course won't matter if youre dead Multiple experts in health/spreading of disease have said masks don't really protect you as much as they prevent you from spreading your germs (if you are infected) with someone else. So buy a mask if you're sick, or better yet, ...
by tmcc
Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3962
Views: 300314

Re: Corona-panic and the market

Stay the course but buy a mask. The course won't matter if youre dead Multiple experts in health/spreading of disease have said masks don't really protect you as much as they prevent you from spreading your germs (if you are infected) with someone else. So buy a mask if you're sick, or better yet, ...
by tmcc
Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3962
Views: 300314

Re: Corona-panic and the market

May I admit that I'm actually enjoying this Corona-panic? Ever since I was a little kid growing up in the Midwest, when a storm was approaching I'd hop on my bicycle and ride up the road to where it was easier to watch. I'm surprised I didn't grow up to be a storm chaser (or at least get struck by ...
by tmcc
Mon Jul 22, 2019 8:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help! At Fault’s Insurance Company Refusing to Pay Diminished Value
Replies: 70
Views: 8662

Re: Help! At Fault’s Insurance Company Refusing to Pay Diminished Value

1. How will you prove you had a loss, when you only have a paper loss rather than a actual loss It's not a paper loss. It's a real loss due to the reduction in value of the vehicle due to repairs. It is a paper loss at the moment. It only becomes a real loss if you sell. Completely wrong. Just like...
by tmcc
Sun Jun 23, 2019 7:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For those who tip valet and/or dog kennel
Replies: 11
Views: 1536

Re: For those who tip valet and/or dog kennel

maybe i'd consider the kennel if the per day cost weren't more than my mortgage principal.
by tmcc
Thu Jun 06, 2019 2:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pine Tree Incident
Replies: 31
Views: 3867

Re: Pine Tree Incident

No!!!!!!

Get an independent adjuster for the claim and see what their damage assessment and fees would be.

Hire and vet contractors on your own. Never put a contractor on the reins of your money.
by tmcc
Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Morgan Stanley's ridiculous fees, and transferring out
Replies: 7
Views: 1192

Re: Morgan Stanley's ridiculous fees, and transferring out

Be glad you dont have computershares. For my ESPP they charge $35 to convert shares to common then another $15 to sell shares. They also dont let you sell fractional shares.
by tmcc
Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Value of Zillow house price estimate
Replies: 44
Views: 6475

Re: Value of Zillow house price estimate

I wonder what the actual Zillow‘s estimate value is for the house seller. My property was listed with a wrong footage and some other attributes were incorrect for many years and I didn’t pay attention. However as a result, the property is shown on the site below market I think You will find a lot o...
by tmcc
Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: pay off an ARM mortgage or not?
Replies: 58
Views: 3712

Re: pay off an ARM mortgage or not?

I might be an idiot but isn't Joylesshusband just talking about a future cash flows analysis based on the amortization of the remaining balance at a rate? sounds like the beginning of an IRR calc, which is 100% legitimate. However, when you complete the calculation, the IRR (Internal Rate of Return...
by tmcc
Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: pay off an ARM mortgage or not?
Replies: 58
Views: 3712

Re: pay off an ARM mortgage or not?

I might be an idiot but isn't Joylesshusband just talking about a future cash flows analysis based on the amortization of the remaining balance at a rate? sounds like the beginning of an IRR calc, which is 100% legitimate.
by tmcc
Mon Jun 03, 2019 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018
Replies: 102
Views: 13073

Re: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018

Bump. Good and relevant thread on rates
by tmcc
Mon May 20, 2019 12:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dealing with construction noise
Replies: 27
Views: 1894

Re: Dealing with construction noise

others have the sound concerns nailed down. you could also consider going to the library if those ideas dont work out. on a completely separate note, hopefully you have reviewed the plans that the developers put in... two things on that. (1) the new construction in flooded areas may be built/graded ...
by tmcc
Thu May 09, 2019 8:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home owners title insurance
Replies: 4
Views: 574

Re: Home owners title insurance

title insurance sure seems like the car undercoating of housing transactioms.

i would love to see the loss rates on transactions without title insurance.
by tmcc
Thu May 09, 2019 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 278
Views: 27251

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Yet another major theft of bitcoin. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-08/crypto-exchange-giant-binance-reports-a-hack-of-7-000-bitcoin?srnd=premium And bitcoin is supposed to be a great store of wealth. the analogy here is that this is like a bank robbery where customer accounts are n...
by tmcc
Thu May 09, 2019 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19244
Views: 2670858

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

the vix june 2019 contract symbol is VXK19. the K19 means June 2019 expiration. you can't ride out a loss until it gets back to zero. contracts expire and you will either be called or be debited for any shortfall if you have losers. :sharebeer You can just roll the contract to the next month/quarte...
by tmcc
Thu May 09, 2019 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 278
Views: 27251

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Yet another major theft of bitcoin. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-08/crypto-exchange-giant-binance-reports-a-hack-of-7-000-bitcoin?srnd=premium And bitcoin is supposed to be a great store of wealth. the analogy here is that this is like a bank robbery where customer accounts are n...
by tmcc
Thu May 09, 2019 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19244
Views: 2670858

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

VTI executed at 146 and still falling. I moved cash from my "emergency" fund because when the VIX is high it is time to buy. Is the VIX high? :confused We are only about 3.5% off the all-time high. Does this even qualify as a dip yet? My buy bots are now set at $1 drops in VTI. The percent drop get...
by tmcc
Thu May 09, 2019 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19244
Views: 2670858

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

VTI executed at 146 and still falling. I moved cash from my "emergency" fund because when the VIX is high it is time to buy. Is the VIX high? :confused We are only about 3.5% off the all-time high. Does this even qualify as a dip yet? My buy bots are now set at $1 drops in VTI. The percent drop get...
by tmcc
Thu May 09, 2019 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19244
Views: 2670858

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

This is the big one i can feel it I just went 100% VIX BOOYA! 'When the Vix is high, it's time to buy. When the Vix is low, it's time to go'; couple that with sell in May and go away and there you have it. :confused tomorrow is looking very promising. trade deal is off 8-) The trade deal has been o...
by tmcc
Thu May 09, 2019 5:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: grubs and skunks
Replies: 17
Views: 1707

Re: grubs and skunks

you need some owls to take down the skunks then some foxes to take down the owls. then you can make clothing out of the foxes. sell the clothing on ebay. then the circle of life is complete.
by tmcc
Wed May 08, 2019 9:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I have a car problem - $100K+ Cars
Replies: 48
Views: 7297

Re: I have a car problem - $100K+ Cars

Is there any concern that this ability to drive an exotic, high end auto for a year or two and sell it for what you paid or more is a temporary anomaly bolstered by a strong economy and demand that may not last? Is there perhaps a bubble here? Is anyone worried about getting stuck (if the bubble ex...
by tmcc
Wed May 08, 2019 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19244
Views: 2670858

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 6:33 pm
tmcc wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 1:05 pm
tmcc wrote:
Wed May 01, 2019 5:19 pm
This is the big one i can feel it

I just went 100% VIX
BOOYA!
'When the Vix is high, it's time to buy. When the Vix is low, it's time to go'; couple that with sell in May and go away and there you have it. :confused
tomorrow is looking very promising. trade deal is off 8-)
by tmcc
Wed May 08, 2019 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19244
Views: 2670858

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

tmcc wrote:
Wed May 01, 2019 5:19 pm
This is the big one i can feel it

I just went 100% VIX
BOOYA!
by tmcc
Tue May 07, 2019 7:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Shopping for Healthcare" - How Use an HSA Effectively
Replies: 30
Views: 2435

Re: "Shopping for Healthcare" - How Use an HSA Effectively

Yeah I've used an HSA for years. I'm not shocked at the $230 even remotely. I'm out of Chicago. If you go to an urgent care you can even look at $300. Welcome to American healthcare. Where the prices are all made up and the facts don't matter. The entire system --- the multi-billion dollar industry...
by tmcc
Tue May 07, 2019 6:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New car loan - Interest rate
Replies: 32
Views: 4542

Re: New car loan - Interest rate

I don't recall saying it was risk free -- just that its a poor use of money in present value terms. lets look at it a different way. 3.5% rate less (supposed) 2% inflation = 1.5% effective rate. S&P dividend yield is 2% +/-. cheap debt is [almost] always better than capital outlay unless you're ove...
by tmcc
Mon May 06, 2019 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: point of maximal pessimism for international investing
Replies: 66
Views: 6488

Re: point of maximal pessimism for international investing

It’s all about currency strength of the USD since all of your non-US holdings have to be converted back into USD. I’m honestly surprised how much currency impacts seem to stump Bogleheads when they keep asking this question over and over. I’ve said it before but I’ll say it again - when you invest ...
by tmcc
Mon May 06, 2019 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Visualizing the devastating impact of fees
Replies: 72
Views: 12299

Re: Visualizing the devastating impact of fees

Warren Buffett did something akin to that during his early years, but I've not heard of any hedge funds still using that model. Would you be so kind as to provide us with some examples? There is no way for me to easily dig up tickers for you but I know Allianz, Orbis and a couple of other instituti...
by tmcc
Mon May 06, 2019 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Visualizing the devastating impact of fees
Replies: 72
Views: 12299

Re: Visualizing the devastating impact of fees

This makes 2/20 hedge funds look even more ridiculous as a BAD deal. Not all are like this but many are 2/20 only after they beat the S&P. free or low fee until then Warren Buffett did something akin to that during his early years, but I've not heard of any hedge funds still using that model. Would...
by tmcc
Mon May 06, 2019 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Visualizing the devastating impact of fees
Replies: 72
Views: 12299

Re: Visualizing the devastating impact of fees

This makes 2/20 hedge funds look even more ridiculous as a BAD deal. Not all are like this but many are 2/20 only after they beat the S&P. free or low fee until then Warren Buffett did something akin to that during his early years, but I've not heard of any hedge funds still using that model. Would...
by tmcc
Mon May 06, 2019 6:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New car loan - Interest rate
Replies: 32
Views: 4542

Re: New car loan - Interest rate

I don't recall saying it was risk free -- just that its a poor use of money in present value terms. lets look at it a different way. 3.5% rate less (supposed) 2% inflation = 1.5% effective rate. S&P dividend yield is 2% +/-. I don't consider a short-term 3.5% non-taxable debt to be cheap. this is t...
by tmcc
Sun May 05, 2019 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Visualizing the devastating impact of fees
Replies: 72
Views: 12299

Re: Visualizing the devastating impact of fees

Theoretical wrote:
Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:15 am
This makes 2/20 hedge funds look even more ridiculous as a BAD deal.
Not all are like this but many are 2/20 only after they beat the S&P. free or low fee until then
by tmcc
Sun May 05, 2019 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Housing market bubble
Replies: 27
Views: 6472

Re: Housing market bubble

I didn't read the whole thread but the population in the US is aging. There won't be fewer old people in the future, there will be more. If you miss the wave, you might be permanently hosed. The real answer is that no one knows. Watch closely and you might be amongst first in or first out (market ti...
by tmcc
Sun May 05, 2019 6:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I have a buddy in Australia he says he pays for each email. I never heard of this. Is this true?
Replies: 17
Views: 3619

Re: I have a buddy in Australia he says he pays for each email. I never heard of this. Is this true?

bertilak wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 1:39 pm
mega317 wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 11:11 pm
Maybe he's taking about the extra electricity. Or he pays a piece of his soul for extra time spent.
It's better to lump-sum at the crossroads than DCA piecemeal.
stay the course, email we must
by tmcc
Sun May 05, 2019 6:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rolex
Replies: 87
Views: 13560

Re: Rolex

https://www.rolex.com/watches/cosmograp ... -0027.html

get this one, this is pretty sweet.
by tmcc
Fri May 03, 2019 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 6383
Views: 539488

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Wasnt there a stat where total market was at all time highs at 45% closing bells? 45% seems high so please feel free to correct it if you know what I'm talking about
by tmcc
Fri May 03, 2019 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New car loan - Interest rate
Replies: 32
Views: 4542

Re: New car loan - Interest rate

I don't recall saying it was risk free -- just that its a poor use of money in present value terms. lets look at it a different way. 3.5% rate less (supposed) 2% inflation = 1.5% effective rate. S&P dividend yield is 2% +/-. cheap debt is [almost] always better than capital outlay unless you're over...
by tmcc
Fri May 03, 2019 6:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New car loan - Interest rate
Replies: 32
Views: 4542

Re: New car loan - Interest rate

I always get confused with these conversations. 3.5% is pretty low. at 3.5% and 72m, total interest on a 50k loan is $5500 and the payment is $770 with 0 down. if you cashflow the loan, take that 50k and lump sum invest at 6% annual nominal return, that is a net benefit of $16k vs paying cash. 50k c...
by tmcc
Wed May 01, 2019 7:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Intel sell or hold NOW sold.
Replies: 67
Views: 5683

Re: Intel sell or hold

Have you considered selling covered calls? You get both the premium of the call and the dividends while you wait. came to post this. you'll make great money selling calls slightly out of the money and if the stock actually rises, you're merely locking in a strike price. call your broker to negotiat...