Search found 219 matches

by ionball
Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Planning for eventual inherited accounts
Replies: 33
Views: 2557

Re: Planning for eventual inherited accounts

A close friend of mine inherited a variable annuity which was divided among two siblings. Each sibling filled paperwork independently, so in that case they could choose separate and different payout elections. Try to take RMDs before death in the final year. That way you won't need to coordinate all...
by ionball
Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finding Middle Ground on the LMP
Replies: 95
Views: 4802

Re: Finding Middle Ground on the LMP

Good thread. One thing i have not seen discussed though is that, under current law, Social Security benefits will be cut by an amount currently estimated at 24% starting in 2034. I'm wondering how folks are factoring that in. i think for my personal situation it means i should probably start collec...
by ionball
Sat Jun 27, 2020 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finding Middle Ground on the LMP
Replies: 95
Views: 4802

Re: Finding Middle Ground on the LMP

Horton wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 8:21 pm
If anything, you might be able to increase your spending.
Tried to spend on travel this year including an expensive trip to Switzerland booked for September. COVID-19 impact on travel was not in my financial plan, but I'm thankful for what I have. :beer
by ionball
Sat Jun 27, 2020 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finding Middle Ground on the LMP
Replies: 95
Views: 4802

Re: Finding Middle Ground on the LMP

Ben Mathew wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 8:32 pm
Can you explain what you mean by "tracking" in the bolded instances above?
I made a poor word choice and should have said "monitoring". My monitoring spreadsheet aggregates several accounts, checks AA, and stress tests for a 50% decline in stocks.
by ionball
Fri Jun 26, 2020 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finding Middle Ground on the LMP
Replies: 95
Views: 4802

Re: Finding Middle Ground on the LMP

I hope the OP plan described is sound because I have implemented a similar version. Rather than LMP based on SS values, I used desired expenditures. For me, SS after age 70 will easily cover 80% or more of expenses. At age 70, the plan is to terminate LMP tracking and switch to VPW as a guideline to...
by ionball
Thu May 07, 2020 8:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why Make Portfolio Safer (More Bonds) as I age?
Replies: 35
Views: 3091

Re: Why Make Portfolio Safer (More Bonds) as I age?

Have you heard of sequence of return risk? It's an interesting topic that may provide some insight.
by ionball
Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the 2 Fund Portfolio the new "3 Fund portfolio"?
Replies: 59
Views: 4607

Re: Is the 2 Fund Portfolio the new "3 Fund portfolio"?

fyi- The current pandemic is not a black swan. The event was predictable and therefore is a white swan.
by ionball
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: Keep Investing
Replies: 6
Views: 812

Re: Bogle: Keep Investing

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:38 pm
Save and invest. Save and invest. Save and invest.

Unless, of course, one loses one's income. To suppose such a thing is impossible is an example of hubris.

PJW
+1
by ionball
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't investors like "boring"?
Replies: 29
Views: 1833

Re: Why don't investors like "boring"?

I like my investments to be boring. Then look for fun and excitement somewhere else.
by ionball
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If I were a retiree right now....
Replies: 83
Views: 11667

Re: If I were a retiree right now....

It's lucky for you. In the meantime, keep working to refine your analysis if you can. You can learn a lot here by asking specific questions.
by ionball
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When to jump back in?
Replies: 48
Views: 5013

Re: When to jump back in?

Why not jump in now? Then plant a tree before the toilet paper returns to the shelves.
by ionball
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
Replies: 320
Views: 26270

Re: How much are you guys down?

Down but not out. I use a single portfolio approach.
by ionball
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where does $2 Trillion Come from?
Replies: 30
Views: 4428

Re: Where does $2 Trillion Come from?

in before the lock, in need of larger post count.
by ionball
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:56 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Livesoft reaches 70,000 posts!
Replies: 31
Views: 2838

Re: Livesoft reaches 70,000 posts!

I have personally benefited from livesoft posts twice, or maybe more. Congrats and thanks for contributing quality posts that help me and many others!
by ionball
Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people keep saying you have to be right twice?
Replies: 213
Views: 7843

Re: Why do people keep saying you have to be right twice?

People say things to make a point sometimes. It's not easy to give a short answer that is both exact and complete. That's why I (and perhaps others) tend to give short answers, yet brilliant Bogleheads give better answers.
by ionball
Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When to jump all in again?
Replies: 26
Views: 1680

Re: When to jump all in again?

watchnerd wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:16 am
April 16, 2020 will be the bottom.
April 16 is exactly the same conclusion I reached. Plus or minus several large units.
by ionball
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...
Replies: 107
Views: 10138

Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

I knew that I didn't know what would happen with macro events beyond my control. I knew that I constructed a plan designed for market turbulence.

And I did nothing.

We all miss perceived opportunities and can still succeed. Chart your destination and stay the course.
by ionball
Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Itching to increase my stock allocation during the bear market
Replies: 21
Views: 1326

Re: Itching to increase my stock allocation during the bear market

Random Musings wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:23 pm
After you weather your first bear market or while it is still in progress?

RM
+1

Exactly what I noticed. OP, have you experienced a bear market at this early stage?
by ionball
Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 COVID Crash Lessons
Replies: 157
Views: 13034

Re: 2020 COVID Crash Lessons

dmcmahon wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:35 pm
Lesson #5: always have a month’s worth of toilet paper and canned food on hand.
+1
by ionball
Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 COVID Crash Lessons
Replies: 157
Views: 13034

Re: 2020 COVID Crash Lessons

I have learned that a well constructed asset allocation makes life easier.
by ionball
Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 511
Views: 45759

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Robust risk management helps me stay the course. It's useful to tune out the noise, but I actually find myself embracing the noise sometimes. Calm one way or the other.
by ionball
Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: thank you Bill Bernstein: "If You've Won the Game, Stop Playing"
Replies: 51
Views: 6734

Re: thank you Bill Bernstein: "If You've Won the Game, Stop Playing"

Spent a lot of time learning from Bogleheads and redesigned my plan with an objective for robust or rock solid portfolio while factoring every risk imaginable. I pulled key concepts from Bernstein, Kitces, and VPW. I threw it all on my desk and sculpted a hybrid LMP/RP plan with timeline and flexibl...
by ionball
Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: A silver lining in all this (for some)
Replies: 4
Views: 996

Re: A silver lining in all this (for some)

A robust asset allocation is indeed a silver lining. Know your risk factors inside and out!
by ionball
Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:07 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 194848

Re: Optimism amongst the panic and worry

There are many caring people that are selfless and want to help others. Some of them are very smart and do amazing research to solve difficult problems. That is my source of optimism regarding the pandemic. And staying the course with a well-defined asset allocation has served me well before, so tha...
by ionball
Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: one step forward ..two steps backwards
Replies: 7
Views: 873

Re: one step forward ..two steps backwards

I'd say not normal in the everyday sense, but somewhat normal in terms of occasional periods of uncertainty. Who knows how long this will continue? Enjoy the spectacle and stay the course. Keep contributing and your future self will be grateful.
by ionball
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll - How much of a crash are you predicting?
Replies: 82
Views: 5448

Re: Poll - How much of a crash are you predicting?

yangtui wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:45 pm
43.435785132214564%
I've been running calculations all day, and I came up with the same number.
Definitely 43.435785132214564%
by ionball
Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:41 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Number Of Posts By A Single Member In One Day
Replies: 17
Views: 2056

Re: Number Of Posts By A Single Member In One Day

VictoriaF wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:04 pm
Or the Russians have moved from Facebook to Bogleheads.
Yes, and they'll be sorely disappointed after they learn that the Bogleheads site is an elaborate honey pot.
:sharebeer
by ionball
Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:09 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Number Of Posts By A Single Member In One Day
Replies: 17
Views: 2056

Re: Number Of Posts By A Single Member In One Day

It's probably a bot or a retired person with nothing better to do. Try to filter it from your mind and be thankful for all the other great posts.
by ionball
Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOW likely to fall to 15-17k at some point this year?
Replies: 44
Views: 4624

Re: DOW likely to fall to 15-17k at some point this year?

I can say with high confidence that the Dow will not drop below 17k tomorrow. I hope that helps.
by ionball
Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I guess 100% stocks is right for me
Replies: 53
Views: 4194

Re: I guess 100% stocks is right for me

You're doing great and have accumulated a good amount for your age. Congratulations and keep contributing for a rewarding future!
by ionball
Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: My dad says I should pull out of the market before "they" steal it all
Replies: 113
Views: 8305

Re: My dad says I should pull out of the market before "they" steal it all

Why didn't he suggest this before 2020? Perhaps his planning ability is lacking and he hopes to validate his impulsive half baked theory by dragging you along. Misery loves company.
by ionball
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are you still going to the gym ...
Replies: 210
Views: 12608

Re: Are you still going to the gym ...

My favorite community gym just announced closure beginning March 16 until further notice. Members will not be charged during the disruption.
by ionball
Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What does your Crystal Ball say?
Replies: 96
Views: 4905

Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

I view things big picture as reasonably unpredictable.
by ionball
Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money you put in the stock market is NEVER lost?
Replies: 95
Views: 3479

Re: Money you put in the stock market is NEVER lost?

Now I get it. The power of positive thinking is greater than math.
by ionball
Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Another Edward Jones and other Financial Advisor "Lessons to Share"
Replies: 80
Views: 9984

Re: Another Edward Jones and Financial Advisor Lesson

I have several relatives doing as your friend. I try to inform them of the pitfalls, but I'm not very successful with my low key persuasion. My relatives are getting by, but they don't travel nearly as much as I do. Dottie57 is spot on!
by ionball
Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Dark Side of "Stay the Course"
Replies: 202
Views: 16490

Re: The Dark Side of "Stay the Course"

"Stay the Course" only works if your AA is correct. If your AA aligns with your projected needs and time horizon, then the dark side probably does not exist.
by ionball
Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]
Replies: 372
Views: 25985

Re: Disappointed in forum members

Also staying the course. I still believe my Asset Allocation is right.
by ionball
Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Withdraw from TOD or IRA
Replies: 8
Views: 358

Re: Withdraw from TOD or IRA

Probably IRA. Review the tax situation with medical deductions and bracket threshhold. Also, recognize that the stretch provision is no longer lifetime for beneficiaries.
by ionball
Sat Dec 21, 2019 2:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax-efficiency vs inheritance-efficiency for IRA+Roth IRA
Replies: 2
Views: 391

Re: Tax-efficiency vs inheritance-efficiency for IRA+Roth IRA

Yes, assuming that you expect a long time horizon for the equities. Another idea would be equities in Roth, bonds in Traditional IRA.
by ionball
Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Forecasting taxes
Replies: 14
Views: 1481

Re: Forecasting taxes

Find a prior year W-2 and then find the associated year end paystubs. Compare them to understand how the numbers flow from paystub year end numbers into particular line items on the W-2. That's what I did. Having hard numbers that were applied in the past should instill some confidence.
by ionball
Thu Nov 07, 2019 10:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Contributions - Retiring Mid Year
Replies: 16
Views: 1204

Re: TSP Contributions - Retiring Mid Year

Yes, good idea. Be sure to string out the contributions all the way through your retirement date in order to get maximum employer matching contributions. The employer match only occurs for each pay period that you make contributions.
by ionball
Wed Oct 16, 2019 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Liability matching, duration, and rebalancing
Replies: 8
Views: 1521

Re: Liability matching, duration, and rebalancing

For liability matching, try to target exact duration on your TIPS. That's how you reduce or eliminate interest rate risk. My personal approach is to not get carried away with precision in the implementation, but exact duration would be ideal.
by ionball
Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy being killed?
Replies: 142
Views: 17233

Re: Is the 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy being killed?

"At current valuations, such a portfolio no longer offers diversification."

Is diversification a product of valuations? Please educate me because I don't understand the relationship.
by ionball
Mon Sep 09, 2019 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% Withdrawal Rate Recommended by US News Columnist
Replies: 141
Views: 12595

Re: 5% Withdrawal Rate Recommended by US News Columnist

<snip> For those that think that a 5% fixed real dollar withdrawal strategy is a ridiculously high starting point, I'll just say that since 1970, the 30 year SWR for a portfolio with 20% total stock market / 10% small-cap value / 20% ex-U.S. / 40% intermediate-term Treasuries was....wait for it.......
by ionball
Sat Sep 07, 2019 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fers ss supplement, Leo question
Replies: 23
Views: 1431

Re: Fers ss supplement, Leo question

rkhusky wrote:
Sat Sep 07, 2019 4:19 pm
So, no earnings test for LEO's until they reach MRA.
rkhusky- Thanks for adding that precision for the OP's benefit! I'm often too lazy to look up the governing documents.
by ionball
Sat Sep 07, 2019 2:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fers ss supplement, Leo question
Replies: 23
Views: 1431

Re: Fers ss supplement, Leo question

Earnings test? So are pensions are going to add to an earnings test? I thought the earnings test don’t kick in til 58-59? What if one retires at 50? My understanding of the FERS SS Supplement for LEOs is that there is no earnings test. That is one of the advantages for LEOs versus others who receiv...
by ionball
Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Trying to wrap my head around VPW
Replies: 29
Views: 3720

Re: Trying to wrap my head around VPW

The most common complaint that I have seen about VPW is that it is variable. That's why I like the new red sections that show how painful a steep stock market decline would impact the plan. Use the red sections as a guide to understand the level of variation. And if it's too much variation, you can ...