Search found 42 matches

by shm317
Thu Jan 21, 2021 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Signs of Bubble logic - greed overcoming fear
Replies: 206
Views: 17650

Re: Signs of Bubble logic - greed overcoming fear

one company issued a month ago to fund an acquisition. one month later they are back with another deal. this time its a PIK toggle holdco (meaning they can skip the interest payments, and just let it accrue to principal) and being holdco, little to no recovery value. use of proceeds? a dividend to t...
by shm317
Thu Jan 21, 2021 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Signs of Bubble logic - greed overcoming fear
Replies: 206
Views: 17650

Re: Signs of Bubble logic - greed overcoming fear

Corporate borrowing at absurd levels. Forget about the low rates, just the sheer size of some of the corporate balance sheets is alarming. And on the high yield side, companies getting access to that market who have no right being there because investors are so yield starved. Seeing 2% HY deals gett...
by shm317
Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Early 30s, targeting FATFire in early 40s - Asset Allocation?
Replies: 16
Views: 1733

Re: Early 30s, targeting FATFire in early 40s - Asset Allocation?

I'm on the same plan as you basically, just further along at 38. We have hit 3.8mm just saving about the same amounts you indicate the past 8 years. We have been 75/25 since 30. In my opinion, 85 is too high for your plan, but everyone has their own risk tolerance. Ultimately depends on how badly y...
by shm317
Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Early 30s, targeting FATFire in early 40s - Asset Allocation?
Replies: 16
Views: 1733

Re: Early 30s, targeting FATFire in early 40s - Asset Allocation?

I'm on the same plan as you basically, just further along at 38. We have hit 3.8mm just saving about the same amounts you indicate the past 8 years. We have been 75/25 since 30. In my opinion, 85 is too high for your plan, but everyone has their own risk tolerance. Ultimately depends on how badly yo...
by shm317
Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Effect of COVID19 on Real Estate
Replies: 42
Views: 6367

Re: Effect of COVID19 on Real Estate

Anecdotal but I listed a rental for sale at what I thought was a bit of a reach price (not desperate to sell and little supply nearby). Thought timing was massively unlucky as it hit the market two weeks ago. But got a solid offer not too long after listing. We’ll see if we make it to close
by shm317
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Math question
Replies: 10
Views: 1018

Re: Math question

I believe it’s 65.7%

Each has a 70% chance of not being selected. Chance all 3 not selected then .7 x .7 x .7 = .343. So chance at least one selected is 1 - .343
by shm317
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 7% Yield on High Yield Corporate > EM Debt
Replies: 62
Views: 4755

Re: 7% Yield on High Yield Corporate > EM Debt

I cover high yield for a living. As was the case in 2008, the market is (temporarily) broken. In these situations, trading liquidity literally disappears. Funds are forced to sell bonds to fund redemptions but there are no buyers on the other side. The bid/ask spread become insane. 5, 10, 15 points....
by shm317
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Staples and Macy's
Replies: 2
Views: 694

Re: Staples and Macy's

Pretty good for both. M has a lot of valuable real estate assets which it has been and can continue to sell to pay down its debt load. Credit ratings will get downgraded but it’s highly likely to survive. Staples is private equity owned by Sycamore. They split up the retail and enterprise businesses...
by shm317
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 and Dow Futures Hit Limit Down After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open
Replies: 155
Views: 13527

Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Hit Limit Down After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

What's the point in even watching futures in this environment? You have enough volatility to deal with during actual trading hours.
by shm317
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Replies: 256
Views: 22722

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Gufomel wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:03 am The number of capitulation threads on here give me hope that we are near the bottom.
Totally agree. Tyson said it best “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”
by shm317
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people keep saying you have to be right twice?
Replies: 213
Views: 7955

Re: Why do people keep saying you have to be right twice?

They say it to cope with their lack of guts and ability to make proper decisions, so they rationalise that it is harder than it looks to cope with their passive investing meme that fell 30%. I’d say it takes a lot of guts to hold in this environment! To quote Tyson, “everyone has a plan until they ...
by shm317
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dancing with the bears [what to do now?]
Replies: 17
Views: 1674

Re: Dancing with the bears [what to do now?]

If there was ever a time to own International, I’d think now would be it. Yes the world is very interconnected, but what if this crushes the US disproportionately worse? This is coming from someone who owns a small % and has hated the perf of Intl the past decade. FWIW vanguard total us down 15.3% s...
by shm317
Sun Feb 09, 2020 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Include 529 in overall asset allocation??
Replies: 24
Views: 1455

Re: Include 529 in overall asset allocation??

Welp that makes my decision easy. Thanks guys
by shm317
Sun Feb 09, 2020 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Include 529 in overall asset allocation??
Replies: 24
Views: 1455

Include 529 in overall asset allocation??

A fairly straight forward question. Do you guys include 529 balances in your overall asset allocation even though it has a different time horizon and purpose? For example my overall AA is 75%/25% stocks/bonds. My 529 is on a glide path allocation that will become more bond heavy over the next 10 yea...
by shm317
Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Biggest Investment Mistake
Replies: 275
Views: 29946

Re: Biggest Investment Mistake

threw away $25k on a handful of Energy E&P companies in early 2016. oil prices plummeted and i thought i was cleaning up at the bottom. GREAT lesson because that turned me into a full on boglehead. after that i swapped 99% of my liquid assets into the three fund strategy and haven't looked back.
by shm317
Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Sprint service?
Replies: 19
Views: 1268

Re: Sprint service?

Check the coverage in your area, but i believe T-Mobile also has a competitive offering for age >55
by shm317
Wed Jan 08, 2020 4:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job change and possible resulting stress/IBS
Replies: 18
Views: 1561

Re: Job change and possible resulting stress/IBS

I just explain to people that I have IBS and what it is. Everyone has always been understanding. I think if I were you, I might mention it to someone in the new group and see what response you get. Otherwise the new job possibility sounds excellent. That's ideally what I'd like to work up the coura...
by shm317
Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job change and possible resulting stress/IBS
Replies: 18
Views: 1561

Re: Job change and possible resulting stress/IBS

Thank you guys a bunch for the advice. It’s a constant mental battle because the physical symptoms are definitely real. Def agree that stress about the IBS makes it worse Ha I should throw the trust your gut saying out the window here because when I think through it, it would be a better move for my...
by shm317
Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job change and possible resulting stress/IBS
Replies: 18
Views: 1561

Job change and possible resulting stress/IBS

I need some advice. It appears I may have a job opportunity right down the street from my current job. Similar role, Fixed Income research analyst. The big differences are better pay, better job stability, very successful track record and process, and small satellite office (about 9 guys). This is v...
by shm317
Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sold my Business (2.2 Million)! Where to store proceeds while I think?
Replies: 204
Views: 17179

Re: Investment Advice Post Post 2.5 Million Business Sale

If you haven't already, you need to determine an asset allocation. Is the $100k per year the only income you have coming in next 5-10 years? Or is this just residual coming in from the sale?
by shm317
Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Net Worth Over $1.5M Under Age 45, Have You Paid Off Your Home?
Replies: 19
Views: 2432

Re: Net Worth Over $1.5M Under Age 45, Have You Paid Off Your Home?

BuckyBadger wrote: Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:22 am
Other Net Worth: ?? Not sure what this means... We include ONLY investable assets and home equity in Net Worth.
For me its rental real estate equity
by shm317
Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Net Worth Over $1.5M Under Age 45, Have You Paid Off Your Home?
Replies: 19
Views: 2432

Re: Net Worth Over $1.5M Under Age 45, Have You Paid Off Your Home?

We are 37/33. Have not paid it off yet, but plan to shortly. We have take small chunks off the past several years so not a lot left. For me killing it completely just signifies being that much closer to complete financial independence. Total Net Worth: $3.0mm Retirement Accounts: $1.1mm Taxable Acco...
by shm317
Wed Dec 18, 2019 11:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High Earners - What's Your Profession?
Replies: 896
Views: 151753

Re: High Earners - What's Your Profession?

Fixed Income Credit (Corporates) Research
$450k
by shm317
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: asset allocation with debt paydown instead of bond investment
Replies: 15
Views: 915

Re: asset allocation with debt paydown instead of bond investment

All very helpful points. It's a tough call for me in terms of prepaying or not. I have $150k balance with 14 years left. I've been paying extra each month such that it will be paid off in 7-8 years. Now I'm tempted to just accelerate this to only 1-2 years, which frees up ~$1,500 a month. My goal i...
by shm317
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: asset allocation with debt paydown instead of bond investment
Replies: 15
Views: 915

Re: asset allocation with debt paydown instead of bond investment

All very helpful points. It's a tough call for me in terms of prepaying or not. I have $150k balance with 14 years left. I've been paying extra each month such that it will be paid off in 7-8 years. Now I'm tempted to just accelerate this to only 1-2 years, which frees up ~$1,500 a month. My goal is...
by shm317
Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: asset allocation with debt paydown instead of bond investment
Replies: 15
Views: 915

asset allocation with debt paydown instead of bond investment

I have a question regarding asset allocation and paying down debt. Specifically, my current asset allocation is 75/25 stock/bonds. I have a lump sum of cash coming in of about $160k, and want to use 25% of it to pay down a 3.75% mortgage (in place of my bond allocation) that i view as more attractiv...
by shm317
Fri Aug 02, 2019 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: self employment social security taxes
Replies: 6
Views: 557

Re: self employment social security taxes

FiveK wrote: Thu Aug 01, 2019 6:36 pm If your wife currently has fewer than 40 "quarters of coverage" the SS taxes paid on any new earnings for her may be particularly worthwhile.
that's a good point i didn't consider. thank you
by shm317
Fri Aug 02, 2019 9:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: self employment social security taxes
Replies: 6
Views: 557

Re: self employment social security taxes

i have a question about social security tax. I'm a fairly high earner via w2 and max out social security tax on this income. i now have some side income coming in via a small business i started. since i already maxed out social security on my w2, i wouldn't pay any SS tax on this income, correct? h...
by shm317
Thu Aug 01, 2019 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: self employment social security taxes
Replies: 6
Views: 557

self employment social security taxes

i have a question about social security tax. I'm a fairly high earner via w2 and max out social security tax on this income. i now have some side income coming in via a small business i started. since i already maxed out social security on my w2, i wouldn't pay any SS tax on this income, correct? ho...
by shm317
Mon Jul 01, 2019 12:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best cash-back credit card right now?
Replies: 184
Views: 36736

Re: Best cash-back credit card right now?

BoA cash rewards earns 5.25%. https://www.frugalprofessor.com/one-month-review-of-updated-boa-cash-rewards-card/ https://www.frugalprofessor.com/best-credit-card-rewards-strategy-2018-edition/ Ok.. I guess this is because you use most online purchases. Groceries must be a big part. Costco Cash Card...
by shm317
Thu Jun 27, 2019 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A 100-Year Austrian Bond at 1.2%.
Replies: 11
Views: 1536

Re: A 100-Year Austrian Bond at 1.2%.

JC Penney issued 100 year bonds in 1997, with a 7+% coupon. Price now sits at $0.25 on the dollar
by shm317
Thu Jun 27, 2019 7:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help evaluating my financial position and next steps
Replies: 7
Views: 924

Re: Help evaluating my financial position and next steps

Thank you, helpful advice. I have thought about just paying off the balance of the mortgage now with the rental RE sale proceeds ($160k). My original plan would have paid it down in 5-6 years like you mention. Its a 3.75% rate. I have about $100k in a 529. I'd like to get close to fully funding my k...
by shm317
Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help evaluating my financial position and next steps
Replies: 7
Views: 924

Re: Help evaluating my financial position and next steps

I’ve been maxing it past 10 years+. Company match has been good. About $30k+ going in a year including match. Markets did the rest
by shm317
Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help evaluating my financial position and next steps
Replies: 7
Views: 924

Re: Help evaluating my financial position and next steps

Thank you this is very helpful. I will prob try to grind out another few years to have more options. I think my real goal is to find something I love doing part time. Figuring out healthcare will be a challenge for two part timers
by shm317
Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help evaluating my financial position and next steps
Replies: 7
Views: 924

Help evaluating my financial position and next steps

Long time lurker here. Discovered Bogleheads a few years ago and found it closely aligned with my own more recent views on investing and personal finance. After mostly reading posts and absorbing lots of great advice, I’d like to lay out my financial situation and get thoughts on planning an eventua...
by shm317
Fri Jun 07, 2019 7:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?
Replies: 501
Views: 61737

Re: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?

I work in finance, hopefully "FIRE" soon at ~35. Despite this, I don't recommend this to new people. 1) Ship has sailed. 2) Work is BS, doesn't mean anything. Creates existential issues. 3) Most people are normal, but 15% are ultimate douches. 4) Everything is based on bravado and politic...
by shm317
Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your property taxes?
Replies: 375
Views: 25243

Re: What are your property taxes?

Just outside Philadelphia, PA. 2300 sq ft home, $475k. Property taxes $11k, most of which is for schools. Sales tax 6%
by shm317
Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: peloton fitness bike
Replies: 22
Views: 3152

Re: peloton fitness bike

We love ours. My wife convinced me to get on board because we have three little kids (one only 4 months) which makes getting the gym extremely challenging. I agreed to purchasing if she could find a good deal on a gently used one. She had her mind set on it and found one via FB marketplace at a huge...
by shm317
Mon Nov 26, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home security system and outside cameras
Replies: 23
Views: 4397

Re: Home security system and outside cameras

I just bought the ring alarm for my interior, but have not set it up yet. After doing a lot of reading, this seemed like the simplest and most cost effective way to secure my home inside. Now i'm wrestling with whether i need to also invest in the ring floodlight and doorbell for outside. One benefi...
by shm317
Tue Nov 20, 2018 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE bonds
Replies: 19
Views: 2025

GE bonds

Not really a question, more just a shocking observation. GE curve has flattened so much that even front end March 2020 bonds are yielding north of 6%. I don’t invest in individual securities, but wow.
by shm317
Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High Earners - What's Your Profession?
Replies: 896
Views: 151753

Re: High Earners - What's Your Profession?

36, fixed income corporate credit research on buyside, ~mid 400s