Search found 285 matches

by Carol88888
Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wondering why Value funds have done so poorly?
Replies: 28
Views: 3416

Re: Wondering why Value funds have done so poorly?

Value funds hold a lot of energy and financials and both these sectors have been terrible underperformers. Banks will come back when the interest rates rise - whenever that is.

And energy will come back when surpluses are depleted and economic growth picks up. I think it will take awhile.
by Carol88888
Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Cash Panickers"
Replies: 35
Views: 6050

Re: "The Cash Panickers"

I wonder if Vanguard knows how many of the COVID cash panickers made it back into the market and at what level they got back in.

I suspect very few bought back in on the March 23rd bottom.
by Carol88888
Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Questions to ask a prospective financial advisor
Replies: 112
Views: 4835

Re: Questions to ask a prospective financial advisor

Can you beat the market? If they say yes, you should run. They are probably taking on more risk than you are aware of to do so.
by Carol88888
Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The danger in the market right now is you" - Perspective and encouragement to Stay The Course
Replies: 2
Views: 663

Re: "The danger in the market right now is you" - Perspective and encouragement to Stay The Course

Bought some more of a Vanguard index today. Will probably keep doing so whenever a surplus of cash builds up.
by Carol88888
Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation-What have you learned about yourself?
Replies: 51
Views: 3497

Re: Asset Allocation-What have you learned about yourself?

I have learned to never go on margin. NEVER! It costs too much and can be extremely dangerous. So now I only but when I have the funds to buy with. That said, I am 100% equities which may seem risky but it's a question of where I am coming from. For me, risky was more than 100% equities. It was more...
by Carol88888
Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do Bogleheads cope with FOMO? [Fear Of Missing Out]
Replies: 97
Views: 7644

Re: How do Bogleheads cope with FOMO? [Fear Of Missing Out]

By putting 10% in what I think will do especially well. This allows me to feel I have a chance for superior returns. But my real money is indexed because I realize I could be wrong.
by Carol88888
Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ark Funds
Replies: 28
Views: 2288

Re: Ark Funds

I won't pay .75 expense ration for any fund when I can get good ones at Vanguard for .03 -.10.

I'm very cheap.
by Carol88888
Mon Aug 31, 2020 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors Were Warned.
Replies: 171
Views: 14283

Re: Investors Were Warned.

. I understand the sentiment that tracking error from the market makes it hard to stay the course. I think the message is that if investors do not think there can be long periods of underperformance of small cap value funds they will be disappointed and unlikely to stay the course with a tilted por...
by Carol88888
Mon Aug 31, 2020 1:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Family member has one million in one stock , doesn't want to cash out
Replies: 261
Views: 28044

Re: My dad has 1 million in Tesla, I told him to cash out, he doesn't want too

I am curious. When did he buy his GE stock? If he has held it for decades and watched it dwindle it might work to point out that this is what can happen to a company. Or you might print out for him the top ten companies in the S&P 500 over the last say 20 years. (easily found with google) This will ...
by Carol88888
Tue Aug 18, 2020 11:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I get a mortgage if I don't need one?
Replies: 26
Views: 2990

Re: Should I get a mortgage if I don't need one?

While I can understand not paying off a mortgage (presumably with a very low rate) in order to have more money to invest for retirement, I cannot understand why it would be a good choice for you. You already have enough for retirement. I assume, too, that you have adequate cash on hand for emergenci...
by Carol88888
Sat Aug 08, 2020 4:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What percent of net worth should a persons house be?
Replies: 201
Views: 18616

Re: What percent of net worth should a persons house be?

I am weighing in only because, though I doubt a ratio of house value to net worth is valuable, I do think there should be some sort of ratio of home value to income or net worth. I just don't know how to answer the question myself. Certainly it is not reasonable to expect a person to live in a $30,...
by Carol88888
Sat Aug 08, 2020 4:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What percent of net worth should a persons house be?
Replies: 201
Views: 18616

Re: What percent of net worth should a persons house be?

If you want to build wealth I would think having only as much house as you absolutely need is ideal. I know there are people who do well in real estate but not everyone does. My hairdresser told me he's lost money on every piece of real estate he's owned. Stocks generally have grater appreciation th...
by Carol88888
Fri Aug 07, 2020 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You cant time the market...but, can you use the data to support your timing?
Replies: 31
Views: 2405

Re: You cant time the market...but, can you use the data to support your timing?

You stay in invested because over the long term there is what is called a positive drift in stocks of about 9-10%. That's a very good return for doing nothing but buying a broad index and then sitting back. Yeah, you can try to outsmart yourself and buy and sell and buy and sell. But you will be pay...
by Carol88888
Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1224
Views: 128923

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

I read these posts with some regret. I have 5 ETFs and although I have good reasons for all of them, I do feel that simpler is better. Still, I am glad that I found this board and got into index funds which now make up 75% of my portfolio which used to be individual stocks. But there's that little p...
by Carol88888
Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Would Be Your US/Int Equity Split If You Lived Outside US?
Replies: 58
Views: 2603

Re: What Would Be Your US/Int Equity Split If You Lived Outside US?

Doesn't it depend where outside of the US you live? If I lived in the Congo or S. Arabia I would want 90% in US. If I lived in Japan, maybe 65% outside. If Australia perhaps only 15% outside because their stock market was able to go without a recession for a longtime. If Europe, maybe 50%. But I re...
by Carol88888
Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Beware the Hype on Gold"
Replies: 170
Views: 12721

Re: "Beware the Hype on Gold"

I don't understand gold. What is it worth? What does it produce? I think if you buy it you have to consider it a trade because it can be just dreadful for twenty years. So that poses the question: When do you sell? And do you really want something in your portfolio that you have to watch with an eag...
by Carol88888
Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Would Be Your US/Int Equity Split If You Lived Outside US?
Replies: 58
Views: 2603

Re: What Would Be Your US/Int Equity Split If You Lived Outside US?

Doesn't it depend where outside of the US you live? If I lived in the Congo or S. Arabia I would want 90% in US. If I lived in Japan, maybe 65% outside. If Australia perhaps only 15% outside because their stock market was able to go without a recession for a longtime. If Europe, maybe 50%. But I rea...
by Carol88888
Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Designing and Optimizing a Factor Tilt/Risk Parity Portfolio
Replies: 28
Views: 2226

Re: Designing and Optimizing a Factor Tilt/Risk Parity Portfolio

I kind of like:30% VT 10% SLYV 10% DLS 15% MTUM 20% EDV 15% SCHP I reduced the percentage of the small caps because they can be very erratic. 20% devoted to small cap is all you need, I think. (Actually in my own portfolio I am only holding 10% and I sort of regret it.) I really applaud your decisio...
by Carol88888
Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Financial Advisors a Complete and Total Waste of Money?
Replies: 153
Views: 9273

Re: Are Financial Advisors a Complete and Total Waste of Money?

In most cases, yes. But if you feel totally overwhelmed and have never invested before it could maybe jump the investing process for you. But as soon as you have a portfolio set-up, I would advise to jump ship and save the .30 - 1.5% added cost which will cut into your returns over time. Other issue...
by Carol88888
Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Here's my portfolio
Replies: 101
Views: 17405

Re: Here's my portfolio

I'm curious. Have you worked out what the overall expense ratio is for this portfolio?
by Carol88888
Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value rebound soon?
Replies: 94
Views: 7564

Re: Value rebound soon?

As to the timing of when value will re-emerge, I will offer my best guess that it will not occur until after this bull market stumbles. The bull market will go on until there is a definable bubble and that's when the growthy names will finally collapse. Value names which have not been bid up as much...
by Carol88888
Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Convince me not to sell all my US equities to Cash temporarily
Replies: 135
Views: 11338

Re: Convince me not to sell all my US equities to Cash temporarily

First off - you will need more than $500,000 to retire and you have a long time to get there since you are 36. Even if the market drops 30% you can be buying additional shares at low prices and that's exactly what you want. Okay, you say that you could be buying MORE shares at lower prices if you se...
by Carol88888
Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insiders Who Nailed Market Bottom Are Starting to Sell Stocks
Replies: 33
Views: 4989

Re: Insiders Who Nailed Market Bottom Are Starting to Sell Stocks

I looked up "Why I cashed out of the COVID 19 rally". It was dated back in May! Looks like a lot of money was missed.
by Carol88888
Sun Jun 21, 2020 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Premium- Does it really exist
Replies: 28
Views: 2120

Re: Value Premium- Does it really exist

Despite Fama & french it appears that for 27 years the value premium has failed. Do people still believe in it? https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio#analysisResults Ben Felix gives a very concise answer to your question: https://youtube.com/watch?v=kYO7xrHhqsY (12 minute video) I ...
by Carol88888
Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Premium- Does it really exist
Replies: 28
Views: 2120

Re: Value Premium- Does it really exist

I think it is telling that Fama and French wrote their paper describing the value and small premiums in 1992 and since 1993 to the present the premiums have not shown up.

Perhaps this is a case of the market adjusting for something once it is widely known and taking away the supposed advantage.
by Carol88888
Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2988
Views: 1906535

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

Just wanted to post a big thank you to Taylor for all he's contributed on this forum, wiki, and books among many many others. I stumbled across this site a few months ago trying to figure out bonds. I always tried to keep a simple portfolio and everything about the methods driven by Mr. Bogle makes...
by Carol88888
Mon Jun 15, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Premium- Does it really exist
Replies: 28
Views: 2120

Re: Value Premium- Does it really exist

Despite Fama & french it appears that for 27 years the value premium has failed. Do people still believe in it? https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio#analysisResults Cliff Asness of AQR has written a number of amusing articles about value and its hoped for next coming. You might wa...
by Carol88888
Mon Jun 15, 2020 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Premium- Does it really exist
Replies: 28
Views: 2120

Value Premium- Does it really exist

Despite Fama & french it appears that for 27 years the value premium has failed.

Do people still believe in it?
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... sisResults
by Carol88888
Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%
Replies: 120
Views: 11796

Re: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%

willthrill81 wrote: Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:02 pm What is Vanguard's track record with predicting future returns?
Didn't Vanguard predict that this year would be the year for foreign stocks? I'm still waiting.
by Carol88888
Sat Jun 13, 2020 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy
Replies: 259
Views: 27162

Re: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy

Burton Malkiel recommends abandoning bonds and going for stocks instead in this interview. ( You have to read the last paragraph.https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-st ... 1586961967
by Carol88888
Sat Jun 13, 2020 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy
Replies: 259
Views: 27162

Re: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy

Burton Malkiel recommends stocks for income instead of bonds in this interview.

(You have to read the last paragraph to see ithttps://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-stocks-now ... 1586961967
by Carol88888
Sat Jun 13, 2020 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any reason for 5% cash in a long-term portfolio?
Replies: 58
Views: 4958

Re: Any reason for 5% cash in a long-term portfolio?

I read a book about an advisor whose stock response to couple when they threw out a mention of the cash they wanted to hold was, "That's a good amount" because he recognized that cash has an emotional aspect to it and it does no good to force people to give up what gives them security and comfort. I...
by Carol88888
Fri Jun 12, 2020 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is a mental accounting bias and should never be used [vs. lump sum]
Replies: 760
Views: 34654

Re: Why Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is a mental accounting bias and should never be used [vs. lump sum]

Wait a minute. I can accept that lump sum investing is generally the superior method since the market goes up 66% per cent of the time. That means that 33% of the time, dca would have done better. Since we mortals don't know if we are going to get that 33% when that funneling the money in more slowl...
by Carol88888
Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thinking of closing out my Vanguard Account
Replies: 55
Views: 6769

Re: Thinking of closing out my Vanguard Account

I have accounts with both Schwab and Vanguard mainly because I figure if one has a problem with its website, I can try to place a trade on the other one. As for checks - this is really a pain with Schwab. I have wanted to take out large sums of money and have had to go into Midtown office with ident...
by Carol88888
Wed Jun 10, 2020 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund
Replies: 203
Views: 20389

Re: Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund

Actually, I am wrong. Its largest holding by sector is healthcare at 17.75%. The Energy slice comes in at 6.49 which is almost twice what S&P 500 now holds at 3.05%. VYM holds 15.66% in financials versus 13.43% for S&P 500. This slight overweighting doesn't make it less diversified. VYM is a very ni...
by Carol88888
Wed Jun 10, 2020 1:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lock in Retirement or Toss a Coin?
Replies: 22
Views: 3064

Re: Lock in Retirement or Toss a Coin?

What kind of return are you getting on your cash? Money markets yield very little - maybe .31% I think. Perhaps you could do better buying CDs. I really like Vanguard Short term Corporate fund. It doesn't bounce around too much and has a better return than money market. I hope you sat tight and didn...
by Carol88888
Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 206
Views: 21780

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

I just skimmed many of the answers and I didn't see any from the person who poised the question on what they decided to do. Maybe he/she hasn't decided yet in which case a great buying opportunity was missed. I should talk. I am sitting on about 2 million more in cash than I would like. Not because ...
by Carol88888
Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I keep my $1 million life insurance policy after age 65?
Replies: 65
Views: 5091

Re: Should I keep my $1 million life insurance policy after age 65?

I would let it go. $6000 is a lot of money.

I always operate from the position that I want the LEAST amount of insurance that covers my needs. I just don't see what the need is in this case.
by Carol88888
Mon Jun 08, 2020 10:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Financial Advisor - Garrett Planning Network (?)
Replies: 11
Views: 1204

Re: Financial Advisor - Garrett Planning Network (?)

Unless you have specific complicated issues, you could post your portfolio and get excellent feedback from this board for free.

I would certainly do that first and then decide if I really needed an advisor.
by Carol88888
Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund
Replies: 203
Views: 20389

Re: Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund

It holds a pretty large amount of financials and energy - two sectors that did really poorly during the decline but have been making a comeback lately.

The fund is nicely diversified and has a slightly lower beta than the total stock market.
by Carol88888
Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it possible to see off hours SP 500 price (futures)
Replies: 10
Views: 972

Re: Is it possible to see off hours SP 500 price (futures)

bllomberg.com has it running across the top banner
by Carol88888
Sun Jun 07, 2020 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any market timers cashing out soon?
Replies: 74
Views: 8076

Re: Are any market timers cashing out soon?

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Sat Jun 06, 2020 9:39 pm the answer to both market timing questions:

Q: When should I buy?
A: When you have the money.

Q: When should you sell?
A: When you need the money.

buying or selling for any other reason is guessing, pure and simple.
Great answer!
by Carol88888
Sun May 31, 2020 4:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When is it enough/too much?
Replies: 66
Views: 9229

Re: When is it enough/too much?

You are doing great. Congrats! Why the guilt? It almost sounds like you are apologetic about your success. Listen, you can never be too rich or too thin. Well, maybe too thin. Just keep plugging along and save and invest. I am sure you will find something to do with the cash. If not, there are alway...
by Carol88888
Sun May 31, 2020 4:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Selling a house - should it be staged or left empty?
Replies: 48
Views: 4247

Re: Selling a house - should it be staged or left empty?

Years ago when I was looking at houses, I almost bought a house that had been staged. It really made a good impression and it was only later back at the hotel that I went over the fact sheet and realized how small the house was and didn't buy it. So based on my one bit of anecdotal evidence I say it...
by Carol88888
Sat May 23, 2020 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 195
Views: 13858

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

There's been a terrible opportunity cost to having invested in international for the last decade. I have quite a strong bias towards the US because I believe we have the most dynamic economy in the world. Maybe at sometime in the future international will do well but in the meantime the US is good e...
by Carol88888
Sat May 23, 2020 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett "Most People Shouldn't Pick Individual Stocks"
Replies: 36
Views: 2824

Re: Warren Buffett "Most People Shouldn't Pick Individual Stocks"

It's incredibly difficult and time consuming to evaluate a single company and stay on top of its development. Now imagine doing that with a whole handful of companies. Even if I could do it, I don't think I'd want to. Long ago I decided that every decision I make is a chance to be wrong. Therefore, ...
by Carol88888
Sat May 16, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?
Replies: 310
Views: 17646

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

All I need to know about bitcoin is what Charlie Munger called it. He used scatological language.
by Carol88888
Sun May 03, 2020 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What book should I “listen” to next?
Replies: 7
Views: 800

Re: What book should I “listen” to next?

The Intelligent Investor with Zweig's commentary. A classic.
by Carol88888
Fri May 01, 2020 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What per cent do you use when you slice and dice
Replies: 2
Views: 262

What per cent do you use when you slice and dice

I am wondering how other people go about slicing and dicing. Currently I own the S&P 500 ETF along with a small cap ETF and a mid cap ETF. I thought I read that the S&P 500 only covers 80% of the total market. I was thinking 20% in a mid cap ET along with 10% in a small cap ETF would be reasonable b...
by Carol88888
Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the worst investing emotion and how does one avoid it?
Replies: 27
Views: 1557

Re: What is the worst investing emotion and how does one avoid it?

Jesse Livermore said most of his big profits came from being able to sit tight. But sometimes doing nothing is very hard to do.