Search found 217 matches

by Carol88888
Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000?
Replies: 1225
Views: 300746

Re: Best watch for around $5,000?

I have a Rolex that was given to me as a gift from my parents. Twice I have had to have it repaired at a cost of $895 a pop. I don't even like wearing it because I feel it makes a statement about consumption that doesn't fit my idea of who I am. Currently I have a Timex on my wrist. When it stops wo...
by Carol88888
Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds Are Hotter Than Tesla [by Jason Zweig, WSJ article]
Replies: 29
Views: 3882

Re: Bond Funds Are Hotter Than Tesla [by Jason Zweig, WSJ article]

I sort drew the opposite conclusion to the one Zweig makes. If retail investors are rushing into bond funds that does not necessarily mean that they are right to do so. In fact, the opposite. Bonds are immensely expensive since they give barely any return above inflation after taxes. how can this be...
by Carol88888
Sat Jan 25, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?
Replies: 113
Views: 5510

Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

I escaped the 2000-2002 collapse because I was totally out of stocks. It felt great. I was smug. Got back in 2003. Thought I had the market figured out. Then came 2007-2009. Caught totally flatfooted. 100% in stocks. My stocks got clobbered. I had no cash to buy. Completely demoralized. My takeaway:...
by Carol88888
Sat Jan 25, 2020 12:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Return Calculation Question - 3 Fund Portfolio
Replies: 10
Views: 398

Re: Return Calculation Question - 3 Fund Portfolio

You can go to yahoo.com and click on finance. Enter the symbol and it will tell you the return year for year.
by Carol88888
Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:32 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Sad news: LadyGeek's husband has passed
Replies: 352
Views: 22886

Re: Sad news: LadyGeek's husband has passed

thank you for sharing this. I am always impressed when someone handles death with calmness. I wish you all the best with your life going forward.

Thank you again.
by Carol88888
Fri Jan 17, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What do we do now?
Replies: 16
Views: 1486

Re: What do we do now?

I really like your portfolio. Since you have a nice portion of bonds I think you will be just fine come what may. Remember - people are living longer these days and it would not be surprising if either you or your wife reached 95+. Therefore I think it is a good idea to have a portfolio that will ke...
by Carol88888
Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value of Active and Ongoing Reading of the Bogleheads Forums
Replies: 104
Views: 8920

Re: Value of Active and Ongoing Reading of the Bogleheads Forums

Came for the investment advice, staying for the furniture and power tools advice :beer ...and the lengthy discussion about a $5k watch! The best! As soon as I reach my number I’ll start saving for a ridiculously expensive watch. I’ll make sure to post about it as well! Am I the only person who thou...
by Carol88888
Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Margin
Replies: 9
Views: 589

Re: Portfolio Margin

In a real meltdown the drawdown will not be realistic. It will be far worse than you have imagined. I think margin is usually a terrible idea. It can put your total financial stability at risk. I've done it and I never want to do it again. And it has got to be a really terrible idea when the market ...
by Carol88888
Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing strategies to prepare for bear markets
Replies: 5
Views: 708

Re: Investing strategies to prepare for bear markets

The last point was to find a financial advisor. Why not urge people to learn enough so that they can be their own advisor? I don't see what value an advisor adds to a simple indexed portfolio. Yes, there are other issues that come up. But if I want tax advice I go to my CPA. And if I need estate pla...
by Carol88888
Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone read 'How Money Became Dangerous?'
Replies: 8
Views: 1776

Re: Has anyone read 'How Money Became Dangerous?'

I just bought it. I don't think it has much bearing on investing principles (I could be wrong - I'm only on chapter 1) but it gives insight into the zeitgeist. Nothing actionable, then? No investment advice at all. Just a lot of cautionary tales of outsized ego pursuing money dreams that went haywi...
by Carol88888
Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 1 million cash - looking for low risk investment
Replies: 53
Views: 6365

Re: 1 million cash - looking for low risk investment

Warren Buffett will tell you that Berkshire has gone down 50% three times during his investing career. The OP wants something safe. This does not qualify.
by Carol88888
Wed Jan 08, 2020 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: With $0 commissions, I'm thinking of creating true small-value index. Please talk me out of it
Replies: 21
Views: 1982

Re: With $0 commissions, I'm thinking of creating true small-value index. Please talk me out of it

Consider it your "play" money and keep to less than 5% of assets. It might actually work. I read that Sir John Templeton once took $10,000 and told his broker to buy every stock on the exchange selling for under $1.00. He then went on a trip. When he came back asked how much he had left and was actu...
by Carol88888
Wed Jan 08, 2020 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone read 'How Money Became Dangerous?'
Replies: 8
Views: 1776

Re: Has anyone read 'How Money Became Dangerous?'

I just bought it. I don't think it has much bearing on investing principles (I could be wrong - I'm only on chapter 1) but it gives insight into the zeitgeist.
by Carol88888
Tue Jan 07, 2020 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I retire (early)?
Replies: 49
Views: 5920

Re: Can I retire (early)?

I thought a studio apt. in SF was about $3500 so it would be about $40,000 in rent alone. I'm just curious - what kind of deal do you have and are you sure that it will stay that way?

Your parent could live a long time and if you lost your housing deal that could blow your budget apart.
by Carol88888
Sun Jan 05, 2020 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% total stock index funds until I retire?
Replies: 72
Views: 7362

Re: 100% total stock index funds until I retire?

How much do you think you will get from social security? Do you have any kind of a pension? Figure how exactly how much you need to withdraw from your assets to make up any short fall in your monthly expenses. Then figure out what your assets invested in stocks will probably give you in dividends. L...
by Carol88888
Fri Jan 03, 2020 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Input on idea to invest funds needed in 3 years
Replies: 20
Views: 1477

Re: Input on idea to invest funds needed in 3 years

I would just put it in a money market.
by Carol88888
Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most 2019 S&P 500 forecasts were too low
Replies: 58
Views: 3694

Re: Most 2019 S&P 500 forecasts were too low

Happy New Year to you too, Taylor and all the people on this board who so generously share their knowledge and experience. It really makes a difference.
by Carol88888
Thu Jan 02, 2020 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most 2019 S&P 500 forecasts were too low
Replies: 58
Views: 3694

Re: Most 2019 S&P 500 forecasts were too low

Does anyone know what the "experts" are predicting this year?

I think I saw it flashed on TV and it looked to me like the predictions were all over the place.

I honestly think anyone of us has as good a chance of getting it right as they do. But that's not saying much.
by Carol88888
Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 683
Views: 18322

Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

3682.88 (I was only off by 900 points last year.)
by Carol88888
Tue Dec 31, 2019 2:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What Are Your 2020 Goals?
Replies: 56
Views: 5291

Re: 2020 Goals?

To continue whittling away at my portfolio of individual stocks as I move more and more money to index funds. Also, to save a lot.
by Carol88888
Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Critique my retirement savings strategy
Replies: 31
Views: 3163

Re: Critique my retirement savings strategy

Couldn't you at least pay off the car loan? You've got a nice salary - no need to go in debt to buy a depreciating asset.

I'd actually pay off the home equity loan as well.
by Carol88888
Tue Dec 24, 2019 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard gives projection of market 2020 on TV
Replies: 25
Views: 2620

Vanguard gives projection of market 2020 on TV

Can someone please explain to me why a representative of Vanguard was on TV in the last few days giving his opinion of what the market will do in 2020? To me, this smacks of market timing and might encourage people to take an action that they might not have considered. For what it is worth, the repr...
by Carol88888
Tue Dec 24, 2019 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the rationale for cash in your portfolio?
Replies: 130
Views: 9241

Re: What is the rationale for cash in your portfolio?

Wasn't cash the only positively performing asset during a year when the FED tightened? No, according to the following the Fed. Funds Rate increased December 2015 through December 2018. There are various items that outperformed cash during that period. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Federa...
by Carol88888
Mon Dec 23, 2019 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the rationale for cash in your portfolio?
Replies: 130
Views: 9241

Re: What is the rationale for cash in your portfolio?

Maybe you could justify holding cash in a tightening cycle.

Wasn't cash the only positively performing asset during a year when the FED tightened?
by Carol88888
Wed Dec 18, 2019 12:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 906
Views: 121393

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Market timer - have you taken into account that this is the most hated bull market of all? No one believes in it. The retail investor keeps yanking his money out of funds and stock ETFs to hide in money markets. Last I looked the bullish percent of Investor Association was something like 37%. Bull m...
by Carol88888
Tue Dec 17, 2019 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The worst investment advice I know
Replies: 170
Views: 14376

Re: The worst investment advice I know

" You can't go broke taking a profit." Yes, you can. This leads to selling out of good long term positions very frequently and then paying taxes.

Plus, when you are constantly itching to take every little profit, you then set yourself up for another problem: Figuring out when to get back in.
by Carol88888
Thu Dec 05, 2019 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don’t think I am a good Boglehead
Replies: 80
Views: 5945

Re: I don’t think I am a good Boglehead

If you are committed to keeping your investment costs very low and refuse to chase hot funds or stocks, then in my book you are moving in the direction of being a Boglehead.

I see it as on a spectrum.
by Carol88888
Tue Nov 26, 2019 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Speculating or Investing?
Replies: 18
Views: 1613

Re: Speculating or Investing?

It has taken me a long, long time to see that simply investing in index funds was the way to go. I think my hang up was that I have always believed hard work and effort bring results. So like Taylor, I read and read. Took courses in trading. Bought investment news letters. Subscribed to magazine and...
by Carol88888
Fri Nov 22, 2019 2:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $930,000 new money to invest
Replies: 42
Views: 5101

Re: $930,000 new money to invest

Update: I did lump sum $830,000 right away and I am glad I did. A computer glitch on Vanguard's platform prevented me from getting the last $100,000 in. That's okay. I"ve since sold more of my individual holdings and this time I put one third of the proceeds into a short term treasury fund. (I guess...
by Carol88888
Fri Nov 22, 2019 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [WSJ Article (later refuted) - Ray Dalio bets on a bear market]
Replies: 54
Views: 5745

Re: Ray Dalio puts his money where his mouth is - bets on a bear market

Back in 2017 Ray Dalio said that people would look very silly if they weren't putting every penny into stocks. The market promptly took a 16% dive.
by Carol88888
Thu Nov 21, 2019 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Keep or sell inherited municipal bonds
Replies: 26
Views: 1499

Re: Keep or sell inherited municipal bonds

Don't sell. You won't get a good price for something this small. Also, the bonds you hold have high interest rates. Just keep them. They'll probably be called away eventually.
by Carol88888
Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $930,000 new money to invest
Replies: 42
Views: 5101

Re: $930,000 new money to invest

I'll probably take flak for this, but given the recession fears I would wait until the market hits bottom and then dump it all in. I know, it's market timing. This makes sense if we know that a recession is just around the corner. But we don't know this. We really don't know how long this bull mark...
by Carol88888
Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $930,000 new money to invest
Replies: 42
Views: 5101

Re: $930,000 new money to invest

Would you 1) dump it all in as soon as check clears 2) lump sum 50%, dollar cost the rest 3) lump sum 30%, dollar cost the rest 4) lump sum it all If it makes any difference, my AA is 100% stocks. Personally, I'd probably DCA over the next two-weeks or one-month. That's an idea I hadn't thought of....
by Carol88888
Tue Oct 29, 2019 12:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $930,000 new money to invest
Replies: 42
Views: 5101

Re: $930,000 new money to invest

You do not provide a lot of context in terms of what percentage of your over all portfolio this new money will be. For example, you could have a mid eight figure portfolio, in which case the $930K new money to lump sum in would make little difference. Or this could be a huge windfall for you, in wh...
by Carol88888
Mon Oct 28, 2019 3:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $930,000 new money to invest
Replies: 42
Views: 5101

Re: $930,000 new money to invest

you're dealing with two types of regret minimization: 1. you invest money and then the market goes down (investment loses value) 2. you don't invest money and then the market goes up (you could have made money) which would you regret more? if 1, then do DCA if 2, then do lump sum if not sure which ...
by Carol88888
Mon Oct 28, 2019 3:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $930,000 new money to invest
Replies: 42
Views: 5101

Re: $930,000 new money to invest

What is your plan for the money? When will you need to use it? What about other assets? I think there are guidelines on Bogleheads for posting the proper info so you can receive the most accurate answers. I am trying to build up a position in S&P 500 that I will never touch and just leave to my hei...
by Carol88888
Mon Oct 28, 2019 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $930,000 new money to invest
Replies: 42
Views: 5101

Re: $930,000 new money to invest

I meant to say that option 4) Dollar cost it all.
by Carol88888
Mon Oct 28, 2019 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $930,000 new money to invest
Replies: 42
Views: 5101

$930,000 new money to invest

I apologize in advance for asking this question. I know what has been written ad nauseum about DCA v lump sum and have even read the wonderful, final, definitive thread about it on these boards. Up until now I have been dumping money into the S&P ETF as soon as money was available. But now, as I hav...
by Carol88888
Sun Oct 27, 2019 3:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best place to park money to be used in 3 years.
Replies: 10
Views: 1763

Re: Best place to park money to be used in 3 years.

I would seriously reconsider the idea of you both claiming social security so early - 62,64. Is there a way you could hold out for 70?
by Carol88888
Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: "Never time the market" vs. lump sum investment
Replies: 149
Views: 18349

Re: "Never time the market" vs. lump sum investment

Congrats! You made a good purchase in December 2018. But wait - you said your allocation was to be 100% equity and yet you only bought in for 50%.

So are you waiting to market time ....i.e. pick another drop to invest the other half?

Please keep us informed. And good luck to you.
by Carol88888
Fri Oct 11, 2019 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A great example of single stock risk
Replies: 51
Views: 5884

Re: A great example of single stock risk

GE. Kodak JDS Uniphase Pets.com Sears J.C. Penney Worldcom
by Carol88888
Sat Oct 05, 2019 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!
Replies: 374
Views: 67351

Re: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!

Zero bonds. I am intent on building up a position in S&P 500 as quickly as I can. Tried owning Vanguard Short Term Corporate ETF but didn't last long in it even though I think it's an easy ETF to hold. It doesn't fit with my main idea of building up wealth to pass along. But maybe when I have the S&...
by Carol88888
Thu Sep 26, 2019 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article - "How Great Is Dollar Cost Averaging? You (Still) Don't Know The Half Of It!"
Replies: 35
Views: 4580

Re: Article - "How Great Is Dollar Cost Averaging? You (Still) Don't Know The Half Of It!"

The author states at the end that if one has the money at hand to invest and instead chooses to dollar cost average it as opposed to lump sum investment, then one can be accused of market timing. I am not sure I agree with that. Couldn't you turn the statement around and say that if you do a lump su...
by Carol88888
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2699
Views: 1801144

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

I read somewhere in this thread that REIT's are included in the three fund portfolio. Am I right in thinking REIT's are considered stocks, not bonds, and thus are included in the Total Stock Market fund? You can certainly invest in REITs (or anything for that matter), but the simplicity and beauty ...
by Carol88888
Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Visualizer help
Replies: 15
Views: 1110

Re: Portfolio Visualizer help

I think this is easy to answer once you plug in real numbers. You have a 2 million dollar portfolio and currently pay an advisor $20,000 a year to get results that are inferior to a three fund portfolio which you can probably construct for around $700/year yourself.

I rest my cases.
by Carol88888
Tue Jul 30, 2019 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not aim for a HIGH YIELDING portfolio?
Replies: 60
Views: 5377

Re: Why not aim for a HIGH YIELDING portfolio?

There is a very thoughtful article on Seekingalpha.com by Jim Sloan entitled "What if you need income from your retirement investments but want growth too?" He provides a sound framework for analyzing what yields are reasonable given the environment we are currently in. One excerpt: "Market historia...
by Carol88888
Wed Jul 24, 2019 12:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Factors vs Data Mining
Replies: 29
Views: 2053

Re: Real Factors vs Data Mining

Forester wrote:
Mon Jul 22, 2019 11:16 am
Greenblatt's Gotham Index Plus fund is about even with the S&P, maybe behind after fees who knows (GINDX).
His fund, GENIX, has an expense ratio of 3.63. Not that is not a typo. Any wonder why it has underperformed.
by Carol88888
Mon Jul 22, 2019 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is using the yield curve to market time a successful strategy?
Replies: 7
Views: 737

Re: Is using the yield curve to market time a successful strategy?

I've read that even when the yield curve inversion correctly points to a recession the timing can be as short as 6 months or as long as 24 months. During that time the market can have an up move that you won't be participating in. Let's say the market goes up another 20% before recession comes. You ...
by Carol88888
Mon Jul 22, 2019 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted]
Replies: 176
Views: 26643

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

(Recession will come) AND (we are at already low rates) AND (tax increases or budget cuts are unlikely) ---> there will be more money printing ---> USD assets will depreciate ---> gold will appreciate. Yeah but when? 2020? 2025? 2030? 2035? 2040? 2050? 2060? After the investor is dead? Will it be t...
by Carol88888
Tue Jul 16, 2019 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 3719
Views: 342337

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

All I feel really comfortable with is knowing that if I buy an index of American businesses they should do well over time. Everything else is above my pay grade.