Search found 187 matches

by edgeagg
Sun May 24, 2020 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: artificial intelligence ETFs
Replies: 21
Views: 1883

Re: artificial intelligence ETFs

I think the reality is that most of the growth in AI is not going to come from publicly traded companies but from startups, .... It depends on what you mean, especially in the current environment. AI infrastructure is being largely commoditized so I don't think that an AI infra startup will do all ...
by edgeagg
Fri May 22, 2020 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: artificial intelligence ETFs
Replies: 21
Views: 1883

Re: artificial intelligence ETFs

Well, as a practitioner in the field, I'm still happy with VFIAX and see absolutely no need to buy (say) Nvidia. The fact of AI is that you need gpus for training mostly but inference doesn't really need expensive nvidia gpus since Intel is busy commoditizing it. Consequently, regression to the mean...
by edgeagg
Tue May 12, 2020 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will "work from home" destroy the commercial real estate market?
Replies: 169
Views: 13651

Re: Will "work from home" destroy the commercial real estate market?

Anecdotally, my ex colleagues at msft and fb say that coding productivity numbers are up (more checkins, better test coverage, faster progress to feature complete,..). However, there are many complaints about design meetings being painful. I believe that this is simply because right now the tools su...
by edgeagg
Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds falling?
Replies: 236
Views: 5904

Re: Time to exit conventional Bond funds?

I think it's reasonable to completely exit VG TBM if another investment meets your needs better. I have. Pray share. I know you didn't ask me, but I'm not a big fan of TBM. Many BHs just like the word 'total' in the name of the funds they hold. For some investors, a short-term Treasury fund may be ...
by edgeagg
Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds falling?
Replies: 236
Views: 5904

Re: Time to exit conventional Bond funds?

whodidntante wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:56 pm
I think it's reasonable to completely exit VG TBM if another investment meets your needs better. I have.
Pray share.
by edgeagg
Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Total Stock Market Funds
Replies: 16
Views: 2200

Re: Vanguard Total Stock Market Funds

inverter wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:46 pm
Many Admiral shares only have $3k minimum now, including VTSAX.
I stand corrected! Since I am a buy and hold kind of guy, the set of funds hasn't changed for me over the last 30 years. :beer
by edgeagg
Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Total Stock Market Funds
Replies: 16
Views: 2200

Re: Vanguard Total Stock Market Funds

Better for what? One is an ETF and the other is a mutual fund with the same market basket and are perfectly correlated with each other. Only difference is that you need $10K for vtsax. If you buy and hold they are identical
by edgeagg
Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:43 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195829

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Absolutely! People in their selfish hysteria overlook things that don't affect them. Monopolizing medical resources for this virus also harms those sick of worse conditions. Agree. Let me ask a question: Suppose the coronavirus becomes like the flu - it recurs each year and infects people. Does thi...
by edgeagg
Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4005
Views: 307014

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Absolutely! People in their selfish hysteria overlook things that don't affect them. Monopolizing medical resources for this virus also harms those sick of worse conditions. Agree. Let me ask a question: Suppose the coronavirus becomes like the flu - it recurs each year and infects people. Does thi...
by edgeagg
Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: who is worried and feels like selling stocks?
Replies: 254
Views: 19090

Re: who is worried and feels like selling stocks?

For all readers on this thread. Please panic and sell, I need to rebalance to my AA :beer
by edgeagg
Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4005
Views: 307014

Re: Coronavirus and the market

[ Guess we will see based on what happens with the Italy cases. The Italy deaths-to-recovered ratio is at around 33%. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries Your link posted says that the Italy mortality rate is 17.0/655 = 2.5% which is inline with the WHO number. I'm not sure what th...
by edgeagg
Sun Feb 23, 2020 9:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Horrible Experience with Vanguard [Login account security]
Replies: 163
Views: 11012

Re: Horrible Experience with Vanguard [Login account security]

It also seems rather odd that a Windows Update can delete cookies for the browser. WU doesn't normally touch user directories and the only possible thing that I can think of that may cause this is that the OP was logged into a temporary profile - fixed by a reboot.
by edgeagg
Wed Feb 19, 2020 10:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What to look for in a Financial Planner/Advisor??
Replies: 33
Views: 1911

Re: What to look for in a Financial Planner/Advisor??

In terms of 529 plan ratings take a look at Morningstar (https://www.morningstar.com/articles/950079/rating-the-top-529-college-savings-plans) I use the Utah one and have a 2 fund portfolio 80% S&P, 20% total bond (son is 9 years old) and on his birthday this year, it goes to 75%/35%. That is my pri...
by edgeagg
Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying "early" on mortgage may be unwise
Replies: 298
Views: 29120

Re: Paying "early" on mortgage may be unwise

You may be talking about me. I wouldn't do that for the same reason that many here with long-term horizons don't go 100% into stock: they want to smooth out the 'ride'. @Willthrill81: It's a fair cop!! However, I don't understand the answer. If one were a pure "expected return maximizer" assuming t...
by edgeagg
Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying "early" on mortgage may be unwise
Replies: 298
Views: 29120

Re: Paying "early" on mortgage may be unwise

Debt is simply a financial tool like any other. Agreed totally. Here is what I don't get: There are people on this thread who have market timing strategies based on excess returns above a risk free rate (and UER as a risk stability indicator). Why wouldn't one run a similar timing model for debt le...
by edgeagg
Wed Feb 19, 2020 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying "early" on mortgage may be unwise
Replies: 298
Views: 29120

Re: Paying "early" on mortgage may be unwise

It's called personal finance for a good reason. Well said. There is significant sensitivity to initial conditions but since it is Willthrill81, a market timing model for payout may be in order. After all, if you aren't getting an excess return over the mortgage payment, then put the $ into the mort...
by edgeagg
Sun Feb 16, 2020 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Market is acting like late August, 2000, or late October, 2007]
Replies: 82
Views: 7268

Re: [Market is acting like late August, 2000, or late October, 2007]

Well then, @midareff. It seems to me you are good and won't be needing gold undies any time soon. I found the PV Monte Carlo that allows you to model sequence of returns risk pretty useful.
by edgeagg
Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Market is acting like late August, 2000, or late October, 2007]
Replies: 82
Views: 7268

Re: [Market is acting like late August, 2000, or late October, 2007]

I'm with you. Heading to Schwab office on Monday and demanding my money in CASH. Gonna buy me some GOLD DUBLOONS... :twisted: True!! I for one have bought goldish shorts. Along with the massive arsenal, my bitcoin holdings and my "I heart Coronavirus" T-shirt, I feel pretty well prepared. On a more...
by edgeagg
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are you holding bonds
Replies: 161
Views: 11746

Re: Why are you holding bonds

1) I am subject to sequence of returns risk and a 50% drawdown will affect the lifestyle quite negatively. At 65/35 now but en-route to 60/40.
2) Bonds are a way of keeping some dry powder
3) Am I giving up returns? Absolutely. But do you know the future?
by edgeagg
Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much do I need in my 529 per child?
Replies: 78
Views: 6309

Re: How much do I need in my 529 per child?

Yes - this is assuming the kid is accepted to + wants to go to an expensive private school. I for one wouldn't discourage my kid from attending MIT / Harvard if they actually get-in purely because of the financials. The thing that throws me off is that even in these schools, the average debt coming...
by edgeagg
Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategies for stress testing portfolios
Replies: 8
Views: 518

Re: Strategies for stress testing portfolios

Yes, we don't know the future.

I use the Portfolio Visualizer Monte Carlo tool and look at sequence risk calculations. For example, if you have the worst 7 years first then you portfolio can be quite sensitive to AA depending on your annual SWR (assuming you're looking at retirement).
by edgeagg
Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla Stock
Replies: 301
Views: 16737

Re: Tesla Stock

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”: Benjamin Graham.

Sage words of wisdom to keep in mind. It always returns to fundamentals.
by edgeagg
Sat Feb 01, 2020 12:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $3 million the new rule of thumb?
Replies: 653
Views: 51168

Re: $3 million the new rule of thumb?

$3 million at retirement age in 2020 sounds pretty nice, but I’m nowhere near that. It’ll be at least 2063 until we plan on retiring...the Vanguard calculator says we’d need to save about $5 million to retire comfortably on $60k a year. If we can stay the course we’ll probably enjoy our later years...
by edgeagg
Mon Jan 27, 2020 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Designing a Portfolio for an Investor Who Wishes to Avoid "Paper Assets"
Replies: 61
Views: 3102

Re: Designing a Portfolio for an Investor Who Wishes to Avoid "Paper Assets"

May I ask if they are preppers? There tends to be a correlation between preppers and gold. If that is correct, then I'd suggest investing in: (1) An arsenal and medications (2) Arable land to grow their own food. (3) Education: Carpentry, plumbing,... Frankly your question is fascinating since it is...
by edgeagg
Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19474
Views: 2697100

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

You're at higher risk from the flu (94 deaths per day approx based on CDC stats). To quote a previously somnolent Boglehead: Yaaawn!!
by edgeagg
Sat Jan 25, 2020 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Schwab's growth threaten Vanguard's domination (article)
Replies: 100
Views: 5536

Re: Does Schwab's growth threaten Vanguard's domination (article)

Like Nisiprius, I'm a lazy investor. I find VG's site a bit clunky but given my portfolio has reached irreducible simplicity, I just don't care. Therefore I am not Schwab's target customer. Others are. OTOH, if I was Dr. Evil and wanted to bilk customers, what I'd do is: (1) Write articles proclaimi...
by edgeagg
Sat Jan 25, 2020 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Visualizer Going Subscription
Replies: 125
Views: 9554

Re: Portfolio Visualizer Going Subscription

I just sent a mail asking for more specifics. Will report back
by edgeagg
Fri Jan 17, 2020 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IN MEMORY OF JOHN C. BOGLE
Replies: 29
Views: 3059

Re: IN MEMORY OF JOHN C. BOGLE

The term "American hero" has been cheapened these days, BUT John Bogle is one in the traditional sense of the term. His moral attitude towards improving the fiscal life of his fellow Americans comes through clearly in his actions and writing. To preserve his memory, I believe that we Bogleheads have...
by edgeagg
Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advisor laying out a convincing argument for active management?
Replies: 43
Views: 3132

Re: Advisor laying out a convincing argument for active management?

These are not the results that I get. Go to: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio Portfolio 1 is this: Ticker Name Allocation VSEAX JPMorgan Small Cap Equity A 16.00% JLCAX JPMorgan US Large Cap Core Plus A 17.00% ARTMX Artisan Mid Cap Investor 16.00% OAKIX Oakmark International I...
by edgeagg
Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advisor laying out a convincing argument for active management?
Replies: 43
Views: 3132

Re: Advisor laying out a convincing argument for active management?

Assuming a 1% annual = 0.25% quarterly AUM fee, a comparison of VSEAX and VRTIX shows a slight advantage for VRTIX.
by edgeagg
Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schiller's article on CAPE in NYT today
Replies: 147
Views: 11937

Re: Schiller's article on CAPE in NYT today

This article was a complete waste of time. There is absolutely nothing actionable here other than a shill for the CAPE. There is no evidence whatsoever for the predictive value of the CAPE for a recession or for market timing. I'd rather look at the UER and other indicators that seem more predictive...
by edgeagg
Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intermediate Term Treasury Funds: Why the differences?
Replies: 12
Views: 904

Re: Intermediate Term Treasury Funds: Why the differences?

There is no right or wrong about the two different indexes for these funds for the investor, but you need to be aware the Vanguard fund has a shorter duration and the Fidelity fund has a longer duration. This is likely to affect returns to a far greater extent than the difference in expense ratios....
by edgeagg
Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intermediate Term Treasury Funds: Why the differences?
Replies: 12
Views: 904

Intermediate Term Treasury Funds: Why the differences?

OK, so this is partly a PSA for the ever awesome Portfolio Visualizer and also a question on the differences between two funds. Background For a very low risk part of my portfolio, I am looking at buying an intermediate term treasury fund. The first question was how to locate such and of course I we...
by edgeagg
Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For those who got out of tech industry (voluntarily or involuntarily)..
Replies: 109
Views: 8908

Re: For those who got out of tech industry (voluntarily or involuntarily)..

Over 30 years at megacorps at F****G+MS, got tired of politics and did the startup thing. Sold out, vested quietly for a year :beer and now doing another one. I've been successful by not being ultra-specialized and keeping coding skills up. Had a weird experience when we got acquired - had the usual...
by edgeagg
Tue Dec 31, 2019 8:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question about computers with two hard drives (SSD and regular hard drive)
Replies: 36
Views: 2599

Re: Question about computers with two hard drives (SSD and regular hard drive)

OK, so this answer is for a desktop class machine. Like an earlier poster, I buy desktops from Ebay. Here is the spec of my current one - $180 from Ebay shipped: 256G ssd, 64G memory, xeon 4 core at 3.5 ghz. Similar to this one but with more memory. I added a 1tb hdd - cheap. Then put the OS on the ...
by edgeagg
Tue Dec 31, 2019 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ‘It Bogles the mind’ — Where’s Jack Bogle?
Replies: 22
Views: 2287

Re: ‘It Bogles the mind’ — Where’s Jack Bogle?

You'd be amazed at how many people don't invest using low cost index funds. They've been sold the line that investing is hard. Somehow, I still feel that we are not getting Jack's message out to the wider world. I agree. I try to spread the news about indexing but like you said, many people don't w...
by edgeagg
Tue Dec 31, 2019 6:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early retirement and raising kids. Impact?
Replies: 8
Views: 1276

Re: Early retirement and raising kids. Impact?

I'm in the situation you describe: (1) Former big tech(s) employee, left and did a startup (2) Sold it and cashed out (3) One kid - 9 year old - about 6 years obliterated by the startup. (4) Had kid when I was 44. I do a lot of coding for a new startup friends are starting up after finishing off a f...
by edgeagg
Tue Dec 31, 2019 2:16 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Seattle Area Chapter Meetings - Master Thread
Replies: 185
Views: 49508

Re: Seattle Area Chapter Meetings - Master Thread

Well, if you like Chinese food there are plenty of inexpensive and good places around in Redmond and Bellevue.

For example, the Szechuan Cuisine place off 24'th street in B'vue
by edgeagg
Tue Dec 31, 2019 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ‘It Bogles the mind’ — Where’s Jack Bogle?
Replies: 22
Views: 2287

Re: ‘It Bogles the mind’ — Where’s Jack Bogle?

Wall Street has a vested interest in making investing and various investment vehicles seem difficult and complicated to the average investor so as to keep investors in the dark about expenses and in need of expensive financial advisors. Jack Bogle cut through a lot of that muck, for which many inve...
by edgeagg
Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ‘It Bogles the mind’ — Where’s Jack Bogle?
Replies: 22
Views: 2287

Re: ‘It Bogles the mind’ — Where’s Jack Bogle?

TBH it is easy to say that people are stupid. However, it is probably more that people are busy and think that investing is too hard - which is why they hire asset managers etc. I have a wallet sized handout that I give to my friends for investing that consists of the three fund portfolio with a lis...
by edgeagg
Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ‘It Bogles the mind’ — Where’s Jack Bogle?
Replies: 22
Views: 2287

Re: ‘It Bogles the mind’ — Where’s Jack Bogle?

You'd be amazed at how many people don't invest using low cost index funds. They've been sold the line that investing is hard. Somehow, I still feel that we are not getting Jack's message out to the wider world.
by edgeagg
Tue Dec 31, 2019 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Vanguard's Forecast for Expected Returns in Models
Replies: 83
Views: 4447

Re: Using Vanguard's Forecast for Expected Returns in Models

I have a very favorable opinion of CAPE 10 and its 40% predictive power. Show me a better model where you can cram the formulas, assumptions and the inputs onto a 3x5 card. There are much better models out there. Some use CAPE and expand it to cover its oversimplification of the world. Much more co...
by edgeagg
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Christmas Gift to You Seventy-Five Years Ago
Replies: 74
Views: 7118

Re: My Christmas Gift to You Seventy-Five Years Ago

Thank you for sharing your story, and for your service. Both of my grandfathers also served in the European theater, and neither of them talked much about what they'd experienced to me, their young grandchild. Unfortunately dementia and death took them before I really could understand what they'd s...
by edgeagg
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7463
Views: 607183

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I'm glad the market is going up (or at least 60% of the portfolio is). I'm taking my gains from this year and converting to liquidity so that the AA stays at the right flight level. I expect to do the same next year too. Being retired and on the way to the next startup, I can't take too many risks. ...
by edgeagg
Mon Dec 16, 2019 11:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Financial planning help for a small family
Replies: 12
Views: 1813

Re: Financial planning help for a small family

First of all, welcome to bogleheads. May I ask if you've taken a look at the 3 fund portfolio and the Vanguard Investor Questionnaire tool ? These are good places to start. Furthermore, in terms of 529 plans the Wiki also provides excellent information but it is recommended that you max out retireme...
by edgeagg
Mon Dec 16, 2019 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Total Bond and not Treasuries?
Replies: 161
Views: 14945

Re: Why Total Bond and not Treasuries?

The handy chart from PV gives you both answers. (1) EDV has a larger negative correlation with vfiax than vbtlx, higher yield and worse sharpe ratio due to its high variance. (2) As an investor, you have to decide how much variance you are comfortable with in the supposedly safe part of your portfol...
by edgeagg
Wed Nov 13, 2019 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard and basketball
Replies: 14
Views: 1709

Re: Vanguard and basketball

I'd love to see a Bogleheads ad:

Don't do anything, just stand there. Can show the portfolio growth and miracle of compounding
by edgeagg
Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beating the market using the benchmark that works for you
Replies: 8
Views: 845

Re: Beating the market using the benchmark that works for you

I don't see anything new here. What does "beating the stock market" mean? Exceeding a median return for a year within a category like large cap? If so, by the very definition of median, 50% of funds would have "beaten" the median.

What did I miss?
by edgeagg
Fri Sep 13, 2019 7:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Managing joint finances when one is a perfectionist
Replies: 122
Views: 8751

Re: Managing joint finances when one is a perfectionist

Going on 30 years married. We do division of labor: (1) Wife pays the bills since I can't be trusted to get it done on time. Since women generally outlive men, I should be all set. (2) I do the investing - which given that I am BH ain't much. We do a quarterly review of finances and spending pattern...
by edgeagg
Fri Sep 13, 2019 7:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Move up in house?
Replies: 25
Views: 3013

Re: Move up in house?

Given what we know, I know what I'd do: (1) I view a house as a totally illiquid investment - after all, I have to live somewhere. Tying up NW in an illiquid investment doesn't seem like an optimal path. (2) Isn't there a less dreamy house that is more affordable in the area? Frankly, my son's views...