Search found 120 matches

by edgeagg
Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home equity as % of AA
Replies: 38
Views: 2370

Re: Home equity as % of AA

Only place used by me is in umbrella insurance calculation.
by edgeagg
Thu Apr 04, 2019 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why take the risk with equities?
Replies: 122
Views: 7995

Re: Why take the risk with equities?

Inflation risk is always present when you start talking about investment or insurance vehicles that pay out in nominal terms, but it's very easy to exaggerate that risk. 1) Its' not reasonable to assume that retiree spending will inflate precisely along with CPI when we know that - on average - it ...
by edgeagg
Thu Apr 04, 2019 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Make sure your retirement investment plan includes being fired from your job in your 50s
Replies: 285
Views: 16283

Re: Make sure your retirement investment plan includes being fired from your job in your 50s

All I hear is anecdotes with nothing provable. The underpayment of H-1Bs is well-established fact, not rumor, anecdote or ideology. It has been confirmed by two congressionally-commissioned reports, and a number of academic studies, in both statistical and qualitative analyses. (1) References will ...
by edgeagg
Thu Apr 04, 2019 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Make sure your retirement investment plan includes being fired from your job in your 50s
Replies: 285
Views: 16283

Re: Make sure your retirement investment plan includes being fired from your job in your 50s

What is the incentive for age discrimination? The same as it's always been. Young is cheaper. And young H-1B workers are cheaper than young US citizens and permanent residents. Well, in general, younger workers are cheaper than older ones. I've done a number of startups and worked in several of the...
by edgeagg
Tue Mar 26, 2019 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why take the risk with equities?
Replies: 122
Views: 7995

Re: Why take the risk with equities?

The vast majority of retirees should not be in the stock market. Just to clarify, most retirees have barely two nickels to invest in anything. I think your point is that the vast majority of retirees, including those who have significant retirement assets , should still not be in the stock market.[...
by edgeagg
Tue Mar 26, 2019 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I hate bonds
Replies: 116
Views: 12756

Re: I hate bonds

I did, till I read Swedroe's excellent book. But my fixed investment portfolio is still pretty simple.
by edgeagg
Fri Mar 22, 2019 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: exotic ETFs
Replies: 16
Views: 1038

Re: exotic ETFs

Well if money buys influence, then it’s possible these companies could benefit from favorable legislation. MAGA screens the components of the S&P 500 Index for companies whose political campaign contributions (from employees and political action committees) meet a minimum threshold over the previou...
by edgeagg
Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: exotic ETFs
Replies: 16
Views: 1038

Re: exotic ETFs

By far the most absurd ETF premise, in my opinion: https://www.etf.com/MAGA ROTFL. Their AUM is just 31.25 M so they must not be doing something right. Compare that with DSI, with 1.35 B AUM. Looks like they don't invest in tech stocks, instead are mostly energy and companies like autozone etc. Wha...
by edgeagg
Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BIL, puzzling T-bill ETF: why have people put $7.9 billion into it?
Replies: 24
Views: 3582

Re: BIL, puzzling T-bill ETF: why have people put $7.9 billion into it?

I just completed a lot of research into where to keep some cash that I have in my accounts. I chose BIL for safety, liquidity, rock solid price and 100% 1-3 Month TBills in the fund. The return is lower than VMMXX but it has no stop for price redemption issues like MM funds. It is not a mutual fund...
by edgeagg
Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT opinion piece calling for more investigation of index providers
Replies: 21
Views: 3631

Re: NYT opinion piece calling for more investigation of index providers

nisiprius wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:14 am

In any case, "we're the only one" should be conspicuously disclosed.

And when they make me King of the SEC, I'll issue the edict.
100% agree to both of the sentiments above.
by edgeagg
Wed Feb 20, 2019 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT opinion piece calling for more investigation of index providers
Replies: 21
Views: 3631

Re: NYT opinion piece calling for more investigation of index providers

...An index fund such as the S&P 500 is a delegated entity driven by the composition of the underlying S&P 500 index. The constituents of the S&P 500 itself change according to the Index Committee. Consequently the Index Committee is the true manager of the fund and the fund has merely delegated ma...
by edgeagg
Tue Feb 19, 2019 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT opinion piece calling for more investigation of index providers
Replies: 21
Views: 3631

Re: NYT opinion piece calling for more investigation of index providers

The "Misuses of the S&P 500" is here in SSRN. The link for "Passive in Name Only" is correct - it makes for interesting reading as well.
by edgeagg
Tue Feb 19, 2019 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT opinion piece calling for more investigation of index providers
Replies: 21
Views: 3631

Re: NYT opinion piece calling for more investigation of index providers

It might be worth reading the SSRN papers by Adriana Robertson that makes the following points: (1) An index fund such as the S&P 500 is a delegated entity driven by the composition of the underlying S&P 500 index. The constituents of the S&P 500 itself change according to the Index Committee. Conse...
by edgeagg
Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard will use blockchain to share index data
Replies: 69
Views: 8856

Re: Vanguard will use blockchain to share index data

This is no doubt totally (and embarrassingly) naive, but... if the "benefit" is that "will be distributed on many different computers and that makes it super difficult to hack"...and there are/can be "transactions against the data by participants and these need to be timestamped and ledgerized"... ...
by edgeagg
Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "College Endowments Badly Trail The Market"
Replies: 29
Views: 3383

Re: "College Endowments Badly Trail The Market"

Like with state pension plan managers, they can’t make big bucks (and also ensure friends in the the financial services industry get a hefty cut), if they simply put it all in VBIAX. Columbia may be on to something. Take a look at the paper . They regress the returns against distance to major finan...
by edgeagg
Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard will use blockchain to share index data
Replies: 69
Views: 8856

Re: Vanguard will use blockchain to share index data

This reminds me of a Matt Levine piece at Bloomberg a while back, although I can't find the link. He basically argued that "Blockchain" is a word that people in IT can say to their bosses that gets bricks of money thrown at them. So they've used it as an excuse to upgrade their technology by saying...
by edgeagg
Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IOTA the new crypto?
Replies: 9
Views: 683

Re: IOTA the new crypto?

I work in this area. I'm still confused by the actual business case here. All these byzantine fault tolerance (BFT) algos are fun but I've yet to see a compelling business scenario here. Here is (partly) why: All of these algos equate the digital good with the physical good, this is fine for some cl...
by edgeagg
Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1613
Views: 230825

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I think you know the answer. Those are pure equity funds, dominated by market beta. Market beta dominates virtually all of our portfolios. It is the easiest and cheapest factor to invest in. We are discussing improving portfolio efficiency by diversifying away from that single factor. QSPIX has no ...
by edgeagg
Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats your number to walk away?
Replies: 301
Views: 46744

Re: Whats your number to walk away?

After reading the last few posts here, I deleted my retirement plan from my computer and started working on a new resume. Flyingaway is the man!! Yep! If I had followed that path, I would have spent the past 17 years at the "office." Ugh! I assume that flyingaway was being ironic :beer. Some of the...
by edgeagg
Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1613
Views: 230825

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

QSPIX has been up nicely in the last couple of days. I wonder if it will finally do what it is supposed to do? Yes, I know two days doesn't mean much of anything, but it's still nice to see after all these years of waiting. I'm not sure what you expect but the fund has matched a globally diversifie...
by edgeagg
Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Understanding Risk & Return
Replies: 19
Views: 1637

Re: Larry Swedroe: Understanding Risk & Return

I have some returns data on the alternatives. All are annualized returns SRRIX: 1 year -12.67%, since inception 12/9/13 2.98% LENDX 1 year 5.98%, since inception 6/1/16 8.61% AVRPX 1 year 0.01%, since inception 4/2/15 4.65% QSPIX 1 year -7.62%, 5 years since inception 10/31/13 4.85% Dave @Dave: Sho...
by edgeagg
Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats your number to walk away?
Replies: 301
Views: 46744

Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Scooter's post should be in the Wiki. I'll post a slightly different view: I'm an immigrant and have been in the US for 30 years now. Like all immigrants, I've deep seated insecurities around money since most immigrants believe that they are one step away from the poorhouse => work is everything. Wh...
by edgeagg
Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats your number to walk away?
Replies: 301
Views: 46744

Re: Whats your number to walk away?

flyingaway wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:48 pm
After reading the last few posts here, I deleted my retirement plan from my computer and started working on a new resume.
Flyingaway is the man!!
by edgeagg
Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: II - The Wall Street Math Hustle
Replies: 21
Views: 3304

Re: II - The Wall Street Math Hustle

Would be an idea - this "ETF fund" already has 15 million AUM, so a similar scheme with 1% ER less 0.2% ETF fees would make you 120k per year. A look at the prospectus shows 32% in S&P 500 ETFs, 14% MSCI Europe ETF, and so on ... they're fleecing investors who could just hold a total stock and tota...
by edgeagg
Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Understanding Risk & Return
Replies: 19
Views: 1637

Re: Larry Swedroe: Understanding Risk & Return

NO, NO, NO. Taleb and Larry are not remotely in agreement. Taleb believes you should buy way out of the money options. Larry believes you should sell way out of the money options to people like Taleb. They advocate taking opposite sides of the trade. OK, I'll ask a stupid question here: What differ...
by edgeagg
Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Understanding Risk & Return
Replies: 19
Views: 1637

Re: Larry Swedroe: Understanding Risk & Return

No Larry didn’t make that claim in the article. Any error is my own. And I have read that Central Limit Theorm doesn’t necessarily apply; I’ll read the wiki and certainly learn something. But intuitively, and I’m pretty sure Larry would agree, mixing assets with different uncorrelated left tail ris...
by edgeagg
Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: II - The Wall Street Math Hustle
Replies: 21
Views: 3304

Re: II - The Wall Street Math Hustle

Just saw an ad of a local bank that now provides "diversified investments via ETFs". They created a fund that holds ETFs, put the "diversification" marketing tag on it and charge 1.35% expense ratio. Buyer beware. Wow! Holy c**p! Their prospectus should make for interesting reading. You could set u...
by edgeagg
Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Understanding Risk & Return
Replies: 19
Views: 1637

Re: Larry Swedroe: Understanding Risk & Return

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-understanding-risk-return?nopaging=1 By combining multiple uncorrelated assets, each with their own particular SD, negative skew, and kurtosis, the individual can actually make the behavior of his portfolio look more like a normal distribut...
by edgeagg
Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10967

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

The difference is when somebody and encrypts something they may be able to say it was meant to be interpreted a certain way. when something's written down plain and simple you have your answer if they're right or wrong. Umm. No. The reason he encrypts stuff is to be able to claim that his predictio...
by edgeagg
Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: II - The Wall Street Math Hustle
Replies: 21
Views: 3304

Re: II - The Wall Street Math Hustle

There is one small problem with the paper, as far as I can tell. The two curves shown in the paper in the figure entitled "Slippery Correlation Ramp"- which I recreated using R in the code below don't have a negative correlation at all. In fact they are strongly positively correlated. I am mostly in...
by edgeagg
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10967

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Thanks. It's an interesting idea. I wonder how it's held up in the past. Like most backtested theories, probably pretty well. The guy has this experiment going where he "releases" encrypted short-term predictions and reveals them 6 months later. According to the TED talk. The theory should allow sh...
by edgeagg
Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10967

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Well, his prior work seems to be on earthquake prediction. Not exactly something that builds confidence in bubble prediction. The site with their reports is here
by edgeagg
Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Collateralized Loan Obligations
Replies: 11
Views: 913

Re: Collateralized Loan Obligations

To be clear, though, it was CDS (Credit Default Swaps) that really accelerated the financial crisis caused by the CDOs - which brought more and more risky mortgages to the market.The CDS market in 2004 was $6T and over $60T in 2007. CDS were not visible on balance sheets and so an accurate measure o...
by edgeagg
Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF provider State Street unintentionally promotes traditional index funds
Replies: 38
Views: 2817

Re: ETF provider State Street unintentionally promotes traditional index funds

oldzey wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:54 pm
Jack Bogle does admit that there are some legitimate uses for ETFs, although he prefers TIFs.

Bogle: Some Legitimate Uses of ETFs
Though in the article, Bogle can be more accurately have said to damn with faint praise :)
by edgeagg
Tue Oct 30, 2018 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF provider State Street unintentionally promotes traditional index funds
Replies: 38
Views: 2817

Re: ETF provider State Street unintentionally promotes traditional index funds

I'm totally agnostic about mutual funds vs ETFs and hold both. One could argue that the ER on SCHB is only 0.03% while there is no Vanguard Admiral "total US" type mutual fund that matches that, so ETFs are cheaper. But then I'd have to look at my Fidelity account and notice that my FZROX mutual fu...
by edgeagg
Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF provider State Street unintentionally promotes traditional index funds
Replies: 38
Views: 2817

Re: ETF provider State Street unintentionally promotes traditional index funds

I think the “gosh why would anyone use ETF’s” crowd is only slightly less smug than the “I’m with Jack” anti-international crowd. Just because you can’t think of a reason to do X doesn’t meant there isn’t a reason do do it. 👍 I think that you are ascribing attitudes to me that I don't actually have...
by edgeagg
Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF provider State Street unintentionally promotes traditional index funds
Replies: 38
Views: 2817

Re: ETF provider State Street unintentionally promotes traditional index funds

The game was reasonably fun, though the scores seemed unnecessarily inflated.

To be honest, for a passive investor, is there ever any good reason to buy ETFs? I can't think of a single reason off the top of my head.
by edgeagg
Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Teach children to save 10% from day one...?
Replies: 31
Views: 2311

Re: Teach children to save 10% from day one...?

Our daughter was in middle school when we began training her how to use money. We taught her for all money she received (whether it was allowance, wages or gift) she should save some first, then give to church/charity, do something nice for another person, and finally spend some on something she wa...
by edgeagg
Thu Oct 25, 2018 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Teach children to save 10% from day one...?
Replies: 31
Views: 2311

Re: Teach children to save 10% from day one...?

FWIW, being a tax-and-not-spend kinda guy, we tax our (now) 7 year old at a 25% tax rate for all gifts. The money is in VFIAX. He likes looking at it once a month. The recent downturn was a good time to give him the "stay the course" lesson.
by edgeagg
Thu Oct 25, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10391
Views: 1842174

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

How much have stocks typically fallen by the time those indicators tell you to move out of stocks? The point of trend following is not to get out at the peak because that's impossible to do on a regular basis. The point is to minimize downside risk, particularly those nasty 40-50% declines that hap...
by edgeagg
Thu Oct 25, 2018 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10391
Views: 1842174

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I'm not making a prediction here, but 'economic indicators' didn't help us foresee or prevent the major crashes of the past, because the market has crashed in a new way every time. Once it has crashed, we then look back and say, "Oh, hey, here's a new economic indicator." Well, that isn't quite tru...
by edgeagg
Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10391
Views: 1842174

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I think of Jack Welch. He started a program where GE would get rid of their bottom 10% of employees every year. Sounds smart. Actually, not a bad idea to subtlely let go of your worst employees over time. But when you set a percentage as a goal and you do this year after year, the effect on morale ...
by edgeagg
Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Smart money' bailing on the market, time to get out?
Replies: 92
Views: 12631

Re: 'Smart money' bailing on the market, time to get out?

This is bogleheads. Most of our IPs tell us to go back to our well-earned naps since our IP dont' generally say: "Take clickbait like ZH seriously"
by edgeagg
Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Time Not On Active’s Side
Replies: 3
Views: 572

Re: Larry Swedroe: Time Not On Active’s Side

OK, I'll respond to the clickbait after donning my asbestos underpants. VPMAX seems to have done ok.
by edgeagg
Fri Oct 19, 2018 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta
Replies: 31
Views: 3627

Re: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta

Interesting that Malkiel co-authored a WSJ OpEd with John Bogle in 2006 casting doubt on these strategies (before the 'Smart Beta' term had been coined). http://johncbogle.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2006/08/WSJ%20op-ed.pdf That perspective has been largely correct since then. The Total Stock ...
by edgeagg
Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta
Replies: 31
Views: 3627

Re: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta

It was only four years ago in 2014 that Burton Malkiel trashed smart beta in a paper in the Journal of Portfolio Management, "Is Smart Beta Really Smart," and in 2016 he said In that [smart beta] does enhance returns, it’s likely because the portfolios have additional risk...It isn’t some smart new...
by edgeagg
Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta
Replies: 31
Views: 3627

Re: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta

This is why i like to try to understand basic concepts and seek simple solutions on which to base my investing decisions, rather than follow any "cult of personality", whether that be Malkiel, Shiller, Siegel, Swedroe, etc. or even Bogle. Well, yes. And tools like Portfolio Visualizer are even bett...
by edgeagg
Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta
Replies: 31
Views: 3627

Re: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta

:D He is at wealthfront, which is now on it's third pivot afair. Wealthfront :thumbsup smart beta. Perhaps I am being too harsh. Does anyone have lists of WF portfolios that one can compare with VTSAX?
by edgeagg
Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sin as investment strategy
Replies: 26
Views: 3636

Re: Sin as investment strategy

So what am I missing wrt VICEX. Comparison in Portfolio Analyzer over the last 10 years shows no real advantage, nor does it over a longer period
by edgeagg
Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wallet-size personal investing handout to jumpstart learning.
Replies: 16
Views: 2148

Re: Wallet-size personal investing handout to jumpstart learning.

This thread is now in the Personal Finance (Not Investing) forum (financial literacy). See: Bogleheads® financial literacy project Thanks LadyGeek. I had no idea that this even existed in the wiki! Great stuff. I've started sketching out a prototype for an app for this. It should be loads of fun.