Search found 103 matches

by edgeagg
Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1515
Views: 215238

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I think you know the answer. Those are pure equity funds, dominated by market beta. Market beta dominates virtually all of our portfolios. It is the easiest and cheapest factor to invest in. We are discussing improving portfolio efficiency by diversifying away from that single factor. QSPIX has no ...
by edgeagg
Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats your number to walk away?
Replies: 301
Views: 45795

Re: Whats your number to walk away?

After reading the last few posts here, I deleted my retirement plan from my computer and started working on a new resume. Flyingaway is the man!! Yep! If I had followed that path, I would have spent the past 17 years at the "office." Ugh! I assume that flyingaway was being ironic :beer. Some of the...
by edgeagg
Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1515
Views: 215238

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

QSPIX has been up nicely in the last couple of days. I wonder if it will finally do what it is supposed to do? Yes, I know two days doesn't mean much of anything, but it's still nice to see after all these years of waiting. I'm not sure what you expect but the fund has matched a globally diversifie...
by edgeagg
Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Understanding Risk & Return
Replies: 19
Views: 1587

Re: Larry Swedroe: Understanding Risk & Return

I have some returns data on the alternatives. All are annualized returns SRRIX: 1 year -12.67%, since inception 12/9/13 2.98% LENDX 1 year 5.98%, since inception 6/1/16 8.61% AVRPX 1 year 0.01%, since inception 4/2/15 4.65% QSPIX 1 year -7.62%, 5 years since inception 10/31/13 4.85% Dave @Dave: Sho...
by edgeagg
Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats your number to walk away?
Replies: 301
Views: 45795

Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Scooter's post should be in the Wiki. I'll post a slightly different view: I'm an immigrant and have been in the US for 30 years now. Like all immigrants, I've deep seated insecurities around money since most immigrants believe that they are one step away from the poorhouse => work is everything. Wh...
by edgeagg
Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats your number to walk away?
Replies: 301
Views: 45795

Re: Whats your number to walk away?

flyingaway wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:48 pm
After reading the last few posts here, I deleted my retirement plan from my computer and started working on a new resume.
Flyingaway is the man!!
by edgeagg
Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: II - The Wall Street Math Hustle
Replies: 21
Views: 3205

Re: II - The Wall Street Math Hustle

Would be an idea - this "ETF fund" already has 15 million AUM, so a similar scheme with 1% ER less 0.2% ETF fees would make you 120k per year. A look at the prospectus shows 32% in S&P 500 ETFs, 14% MSCI Europe ETF, and so on ... they're fleecing investors who could just hold a total stock and tota...
by edgeagg
Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Understanding Risk & Return
Replies: 19
Views: 1587

Re: Larry Swedroe: Understanding Risk & Return

NO, NO, NO. Taleb and Larry are not remotely in agreement. Taleb believes you should buy way out of the money options. Larry believes you should sell way out of the money options to people like Taleb. They advocate taking opposite sides of the trade. OK, I'll ask a stupid question here: What differ...
by edgeagg
Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Understanding Risk & Return
Replies: 19
Views: 1587

Re: Larry Swedroe: Understanding Risk & Return

No Larry didn’t make that claim in the article. Any error is my own. And I have read that Central Limit Theorm doesn’t necessarily apply; I’ll read the wiki and certainly learn something. But intuitively, and I’m pretty sure Larry would agree, mixing assets with different uncorrelated left tail ris...
by edgeagg
Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: II - The Wall Street Math Hustle
Replies: 21
Views: 3205

Re: II - The Wall Street Math Hustle

Just saw an ad of a local bank that now provides "diversified investments via ETFs". They created a fund that holds ETFs, put the "diversification" marketing tag on it and charge 1.35% expense ratio. Buyer beware. Wow! Holy c**p! Their prospectus should make for interesting reading. You could set u...
by edgeagg
Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Understanding Risk & Return
Replies: 19
Views: 1587

Re: Larry Swedroe: Understanding Risk & Return

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-understanding-risk-return?nopaging=1 By combining multiple uncorrelated assets, each with their own particular SD, negative skew, and kurtosis, the individual can actually make the behavior of his portfolio look more like a normal distribut...
by edgeagg
Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10721

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

The difference is when somebody and encrypts something they may be able to say it was meant to be interpreted a certain way. when something's written down plain and simple you have your answer if they're right or wrong. Umm. No. The reason he encrypts stuff is to be able to claim that his predictio...
by edgeagg
Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: II - The Wall Street Math Hustle
Replies: 21
Views: 3205

Re: II - The Wall Street Math Hustle

There is one small problem with the paper, as far as I can tell. The two curves shown in the paper in the figure entitled "Slippery Correlation Ramp"- which I recreated using R in the code below don't have a negative correlation at all. In fact they are strongly positively correlated. I am mostly in...
by edgeagg
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10721

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Thanks. It's an interesting idea. I wonder how it's held up in the past. Like most backtested theories, probably pretty well. The guy has this experiment going where he "releases" encrypted short-term predictions and reveals them 6 months later. According to the TED talk. The theory should allow sh...
by edgeagg
Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10721

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

Well, his prior work seems to be on earthquake prediction. Not exactly something that builds confidence in bubble prediction. The site with their reports is here
by edgeagg
Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Collateralized Loan Obligations
Replies: 11
Views: 849

Re: Collateralized Loan Obligations

To be clear, though, it was CDS (Credit Default Swaps) that really accelerated the financial crisis caused by the CDOs - which brought more and more risky mortgages to the market.The CDS market in 2004 was $6T and over $60T in 2007. CDS were not visible on balance sheets and so an accurate measure o...
by edgeagg
Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF provider State Street unintentionally promotes traditional index funds
Replies: 38
Views: 2770

Re: ETF provider State Street unintentionally promotes traditional index funds

oldzey wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:54 pm
Jack Bogle does admit that there are some legitimate uses for ETFs, although he prefers TIFs.

Bogle: Some Legitimate Uses of ETFs
Though in the article, Bogle can be more accurately have said to damn with faint praise :)
by edgeagg
Tue Oct 30, 2018 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF provider State Street unintentionally promotes traditional index funds
Replies: 38
Views: 2770

Re: ETF provider State Street unintentionally promotes traditional index funds

I'm totally agnostic about mutual funds vs ETFs and hold both. One could argue that the ER on SCHB is only 0.03% while there is no Vanguard Admiral "total US" type mutual fund that matches that, so ETFs are cheaper. But then I'd have to look at my Fidelity account and notice that my FZROX mutual fu...
by edgeagg
Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF provider State Street unintentionally promotes traditional index funds
Replies: 38
Views: 2770

Re: ETF provider State Street unintentionally promotes traditional index funds

I think the “gosh why would anyone use ETF’s” crowd is only slightly less smug than the “I’m with Jack” anti-international crowd. Just because you can’t think of a reason to do X doesn’t meant there isn’t a reason do do it. 👍 I think that you are ascribing attitudes to me that I don't actually have...
by edgeagg
Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF provider State Street unintentionally promotes traditional index funds
Replies: 38
Views: 2770

Re: ETF provider State Street unintentionally promotes traditional index funds

The game was reasonably fun, though the scores seemed unnecessarily inflated.

To be honest, for a passive investor, is there ever any good reason to buy ETFs? I can't think of a single reason off the top of my head.
by edgeagg
Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Teach children to save 10% from day one...?
Replies: 31
Views: 2275

Re: Teach children to save 10% from day one...?

Our daughter was in middle school when we began training her how to use money. We taught her for all money she received (whether it was allowance, wages or gift) she should save some first, then give to church/charity, do something nice for another person, and finally spend some on something she wa...
by edgeagg
Thu Oct 25, 2018 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Teach children to save 10% from day one...?
Replies: 31
Views: 2275

Re: Teach children to save 10% from day one...?

FWIW, being a tax-and-not-spend kinda guy, we tax our (now) 7 year old at a 25% tax rate for all gifts. The money is in VFIAX. He likes looking at it once a month. The recent downturn was a good time to give him the "stay the course" lesson.
by edgeagg
Thu Oct 25, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 8490
Views: 1665802

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

How much have stocks typically fallen by the time those indicators tell you to move out of stocks? The point of trend following is not to get out at the peak because that's impossible to do on a regular basis. The point is to minimize downside risk, particularly those nasty 40-50% declines that hap...
by edgeagg
Thu Oct 25, 2018 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 8490
Views: 1665802

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I'm not making a prediction here, but 'economic indicators' didn't help us foresee or prevent the major crashes of the past, because the market has crashed in a new way every time. Once it has crashed, we then look back and say, "Oh, hey, here's a new economic indicator." Well, that isn't quite tru...
by edgeagg
Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 8490
Views: 1665802

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I think of Jack Welch. He started a program where GE would get rid of their bottom 10% of employees every year. Sounds smart. Actually, not a bad idea to subtlely let go of your worst employees over time. But when you set a percentage as a goal and you do this year after year, the effect on morale ...
by edgeagg
Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Smart money' bailing on the market, time to get out?
Replies: 92
Views: 12325

Re: 'Smart money' bailing on the market, time to get out?

This is bogleheads. Most of our IPs tell us to go back to our well-earned naps since our IP dont' generally say: "Take clickbait like ZH seriously"
by edgeagg
Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Time Not On Active’s Side
Replies: 3
Views: 545

Re: Larry Swedroe: Time Not On Active’s Side

OK, I'll respond to the clickbait after donning my asbestos underpants. VPMAX seems to have done ok.
by edgeagg
Fri Oct 19, 2018 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta
Replies: 31
Views: 3500

Re: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta

Interesting that Malkiel co-authored a WSJ OpEd with John Bogle in 2006 casting doubt on these strategies (before the 'Smart Beta' term had been coined). http://johncbogle.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2006/08/WSJ%20op-ed.pdf That perspective has been largely correct since then. The Total Stock ...
by edgeagg
Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta
Replies: 31
Views: 3500

Re: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta

It was only four years ago in 2014 that Burton Malkiel trashed smart beta in a paper in the Journal of Portfolio Management, "Is Smart Beta Really Smart," and in 2016 he said In that [smart beta] does enhance returns, it’s likely because the portfolios have additional risk...It isn’t some smart new...
by edgeagg
Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta
Replies: 31
Views: 3500

Re: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta

This is why i like to try to understand basic concepts and seek simple solutions on which to base my investing decisions, rather than follow any "cult of personality", whether that be Malkiel, Shiller, Siegel, Swedroe, etc. or even Bogle. Well, yes. And tools like Portfolio Visualizer are even bett...
by edgeagg
Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta
Replies: 31
Views: 3500

Re: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta

:D He is at wealthfront, which is now on it's third pivot afair. Wealthfront :thumbsup smart beta. Perhaps I am being too harsh. Does anyone have lists of WF portfolios that one can compare with VTSAX?
by edgeagg
Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sin as investment strategy
Replies: 26
Views: 3585

Re: Sin as investment strategy

So what am I missing wrt VICEX. Comparison in Portfolio Analyzer over the last 10 years shows no real advantage, nor does it over a longer period
by edgeagg
Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wallet-size personal investing handout to jumpstart learning.
Replies: 10
Views: 1189

Re: Wallet-size personal investing handout to jumpstart learning.

This thread is now in the Personal Finance (Not Investing) forum (financial literacy). See: Bogleheads® financial literacy project Thanks LadyGeek. I had no idea that this even existed in the wiki! Great stuff. I've started sketching out a prototype for an app for this. It should be loads of fun.
by edgeagg
Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone consider institutional risk?
Replies: 37
Views: 2223

Re: Does anyone consider institutional risk?

But I believe that spreading at the very least your emergency reserve between multiple financial institutions (banks) is prudent and is well worth the small effort. If something goes wrong with your account, then it is entirely possible, even if not particularly likely, that it could take much long...
by edgeagg
Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wallet-size personal investing handout to jumpstart learning.
Replies: 10
Views: 1189

Re: Wallet-size personal investing handout to jumpstart learning.

Like you, I'm tired of my friends asking me for investing/retirement advice. There are some aspects that a static sheet, cannot do: (1) A more decision oriented workflow that takes (for example) age into account for investing. (2) Behavioral aspects: The proliferation of articles on the "Freefall" t...
by edgeagg
Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wallet-size personal investing handout to jumpstart learning.
Replies: 10
Views: 1189

Re: Wallet-size personal investing handout to jumpstart learning.

I believe that this is a good idea. Could you post a pdf or png of the actual handout you carry around?
by edgeagg
Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 10054

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

Hi Dave, Read the article. Larry does make some good points. However, his claims around QRPRX, QSPRX, LENDX, AVRPX and SRRIX are not really testable (by me) in terms of correlation. Best I could find from PV is this . Of course the problem as you see is that QRPRX is new (2017) so who knows what hap...
by edgeagg
Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone consider institutional risk?
Replies: 37
Views: 2223

Re: Does anyone consider institutional risk?

OK. So how many times have VG and Fido been hacked and customer accounts compromised over the last 10 years? None that I am aware of. 10 years is hardly statistically significant, that's a very small time period. Internet security breaches are becoming much more common, even within heavily secured ...
by edgeagg
Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone consider institutional risk?
Replies: 37
Views: 2223

Re: Does anyone consider institutional risk?

OK. So how many times have VG and Fido been hacked and customer accounts compromised over the last 10 years? None that I am aware of. The more likely situation is non-responsiveness of the VG and Fido sites under heavy trading conditions. This has happened several times - and I've had equivalently p...
by edgeagg
Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This Time is Different
Replies: 30
Views: 5540

Re: This Time is Different

...The nuclear bomb this time is the same thing as MBS in 2008 - BONDS, but this time it is not just mortgage bonds but sovereign bonds (which all other bonds are priced off of). In 2008 the banks held all these mortgage bonds that turned out to be worthless and that took them down. This time aroun...
by edgeagg
Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This Time is Different
Replies: 30
Views: 5540

Re: This Time is Different

...The nuclear bomb this time is the same thing as MBS in 2008 - BONDS, but this time it is not just mortgage bonds but sovereign bonds (which all other bonds are priced off of). In 2008 the banks held all these mortgage bonds that turned out to be worthless and that took them down. This time aroun...
by edgeagg
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 8490
Views: 1665802

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

We can't worry about it. On Monday Oct 3rd I re-balanced equities back down about 5 points to my 60/40 target AA. No reason except it was at the edge of the band and I had a whim. Nothing like oldster good luck! We take RMDs pro-rata and only do high equities side re-balancing. I'm liking this mini...
by edgeagg
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 8490
Views: 1665802

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Any turbulence and you can couton this thread to be on the top. Every one gets spooked so easily here. Lots of folks here haven't been seriously tested before. They weren't investing in 2008, or they didn't have a lot of money in at that time. So we have people who are signed on with the theory of ...
by edgeagg
Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 8490
Views: 1665802

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Here is an obligatory graph to show the percentage change today vs rest of time. I'm tired of the financial commentators yammering on "n largest drop bla bla bla". Noticeable, but if you are a boglehead, party on. https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=1fk58sVccOCCaynnp38kQqNYHReR4AGSk Now,...
by edgeagg
Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 8490
Views: 1665802

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Here is an obligatory graph to show the percentage change today vs rest of time. I'm tired of the financial commentators yammering on "n largest drop bla bla bla". Noticeable, but if you are a boglehead, party on. https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=1fk58sVccOCCaynnp38kQqNYHReR4AGSk Now, ...
by edgeagg
Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bullish/bearish on GE? Make your case here - new lows today
Replies: 67
Views: 6299

Re: Bullish/bearish on GE? Make your case here - new lows today

People will continue to need power, etc - what she doesn't realize is that people are less and less relying on GE to provide all these things as other companies eat their lunch. Many companies adapt until they are no longer able to - that's what's happening to GE. Precisely. Power generation is bec...
by edgeagg
Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “It’s probably wise to sell to the sleeping point.” - Jack Bogle
Replies: 83
Views: 11824

Re: “It’s probably wise to sell to the sleeping point.” - Jack Bogle

I completely agree that I would love to KNOW the likelihood of large gains or losses for stocks over the next 2 years. If anyone KNOWS , please PM me. Well, isn't that just trying to model recession probabilities? If so, you should see the thread on yield inversions. Note the key word "know." Proje...
by edgeagg
Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flattening yield curve
Replies: 55
Views: 5021

Re: Flattening yield curve

You are the person making the affirmative claim. Upthread poster stlutz When the burden of proof is mine I own up to it. PJW Well, if you read my post carefully: " Just to be clear: Whether an inverting curve causes or does not cause a recession, I don't really know, and financialsamurai's argument...
by edgeagg
Sun Oct 07, 2018 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “It’s probably wise to sell to the sleeping point.” - Jack Bogle
Replies: 83
Views: 11824

Re: “It’s probably wise to sell to the sleeping point.” - Jack Bogle

afan wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 7:13 am
I completely agree that I would love to know the likelihood of large gains or losses for stocks over the next 2 years. If anyone knows, please PM me.
Well, isn't that just trying to model recession probabilities? If so, you should see the thread on yield inversions.
by edgeagg
Sun Oct 07, 2018 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flattening yield curve
Replies: 55
Views: 5021

Re: Flattening yield curve

ProfWengen wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:08 pm
I think it is premature to worry. There can be a pretty big lead time between the time the YC inverts and recession begins, and the US isn't inverted yet.
Yes, correct. The time is between 8 and 17 months. 8 has been the shortest.