Search found 931 matches

by dave.d
Sat Mar 23, 2013 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab's new Fundamental ETFs
Replies: 64
Views: 12383

Re: Schwab's new Fundamental ETFs

Our brother Nisiprius is my favorite poster, but here I disagree. These are value funds and SHOULD be riskier than total market funds, in the same way that any value or small value index is. You can no more judge these funds' performance on a short period vs. total markets than you can with value, w...
by dave.d
Fri Mar 15, 2013 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AP Story: "Study Sheds New Light on Funds' Investing Costs"
Replies: 13
Views: 1474

Re: AP Story: "Study Sheds New Light on Funds' Investing Cos

Tiny, around 3% last year, although I recall 5-6% from previous years. Turnover is noticeably higher for style funds. Last year small cap index was 14%; value and small value index were both 20-25%. However, the expense that would be associated with those levels of turnover is still considerably les...
by dave.d
Sat Feb 25, 2012 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MLPs
Replies: 18
Views: 1798

Re: MLPs

Use an ETN in a tax-protected account, and all the tax issues go away. Just remember to consider the credit risk as a hidden expense.
by dave.d
Sun Dec 04, 2011 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could there be "Vanguard Indexes" in the future?
Replies: 32
Views: 4102

Re: Could there be "Vanguard Indexes" in the future?

My understanding from a certain author who posts here is that Vanguard sometimes has to tell Wilshire when things happen to small stocks in the Wilshire 5000 -- because Vanguard, actually owning them, notices mergers and splits that the index provider doesn't.
by dave.d
Wed Nov 30, 2011 9:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Piano shopping (full sized upright)
Replies: 40
Views: 4117

Re: Piano shopping (full sized upright)

By the way, how often do any of you have your pianos tuned? We have it done twice a year, late spring and again before xmas. We were told to have it done 4 times a year due to humidity changes but we've been happy with twice year. My wife can tell the before and after difference, I can't, but then ...
by dave.d
Wed Nov 30, 2011 9:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good music CD to mp3 ripper software?
Replies: 31
Views: 1785

Re: Good music CD to mp3 ripper software?

LikeYouImagine wrote:My favorite is the simple program CDex . http://cdexos.sourceforge.net/?q=screenshots

+1
by dave.d
Thu Nov 03, 2011 7:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: can an employer require 40 hrs / week for a part-time job?
Replies: 16
Views: 1616

Re: can an employer require 40 hrs / week for a part-time jo

I'm not a labor lawyer, but I believe you are right and barney is wrong. i AM an employment lawyer, and I also think Fred is right and Barney is wrong, except in one possible way noted below. For exemption from FLSA overtime requirements, there are minimum salaries (relatively low) and the employee...
by dave.d
Mon Oct 31, 2011 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any studies on returns to shareholders of stock...
Replies: 2
Views: 199

Re: Any studies on returns to shareholders of stock...

Related, at least, to your question: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=544142

Full disclosure, I've pimped before for this article, which I find critically important to estimating future stock returns.
by dave.d
Thu Oct 13, 2011 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: pros and cons of an equal weighted index fund/etf
Replies: 8
Views: 3658

Hold on now... the OP has walked, perhaps unaware, into another debate. The equal weight fund RSP has a "tilt" toward the small cap and value factors, compared to the market cap-weighted funds. Per French and Fama, RSP would be expected to have a higher return, over long periods, at least ...
by dave.d
Wed Oct 12, 2011 10:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard says I have too many funds
Replies: 13
Views: 3934

I've encountered this issue as well. It's a little confusing to have two different account numbers on funds that have the same ownership, but not really an issue. They all display together on the activities and accounts page, totals show properly... it's not a big deal.
by dave.d
Sun Oct 09, 2011 8:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gettysburg visit
Replies: 24
Views: 2650

You'll never see The Little Round Top in quite the same way, when you contemplate the 20th Maine and the 8th Alabama fighting for the future of the United States of America. Had the 8th Alabama turned the Union line, the battle might have been lost. Valuethinker gets a mulligan for not being a U.S....
by dave.d
Thu Oct 06, 2011 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If I had to medically insure my self, how would I do it?
Replies: 16
Views: 1541

I get high deductible coverage for my family of 5 from major insurance companies (Aetna and Anthem) for a total of about $6,000 a year. (I got the separate policy because I previously had Anthem group coverage and they would not let me switch directly.) We applied on their websites. Deductibles are ...
by dave.d
Wed Oct 05, 2011 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Five Dumbest Statement in Investing.
Replies: 11
Views: 2093

I would have nominated "It's a stock pickers' market!" As opposed to what, one in which indexing regularly outperforms? Which is to say, the real one? I must read or hear that line somewhere at least once a week. Close cousin to this is, "It's not a stock market, it's a market of stoc...
by dave.d
Tue Oct 04, 2011 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I Caused The Market To Bottom!
Replies: 23
Views: 2982

I think this is the best argument for ETF's... yes, you pay a spread, but you know what price you're paying. Based on my rebalancing bands, I bought some VTI this morning at $55.06 (closed at $57.25) and GDX this afternoon at $50.60 (closed at $52.50). The amounts were modest, but the VTI, at least,...
by dave.d
Wed Sep 28, 2011 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New ETF Tilts to Small Value stocks
Replies: 27
Views: 8772

instead of creating a "core portfolio" that is gradually distributed across the entire market, they've created a "barbell portfolio". This thing is 85% in large and small stocks. As big stocks fall to mid cap or small stocks grow to mid cap, you are going to see significant turn...
by dave.d
Mon Sep 26, 2011 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Avoiding 2000 -style Euphoria with Index Funds?
Replies: 15
Views: 2780

If you had been willing during the tech bubble to time your exposure to the small and value factors by some reasonable measure of valuation, you would have maintained a more even equity exposure by shifting toward small and value stocks, as the prices on large growth stocks grew progressively more i...
by dave.d
Thu Sep 22, 2011 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to TLH VSS?
Replies: 5
Views: 737

A 3:1 mix of GWX (or SCZ or SCHC) and EWX would match VSS fairly closely... if it's really worth the time to slice the baloney that thin!
by dave.d
Mon Sep 19, 2011 9:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Piano lessons for your children
Replies: 47
Views: 5351

If you take the OP's attitude, piano lessons may indeed be a waste of money. Instead, get involved: have the child perform for you between recitals, talk to them about their pieces, comment on parallels and differences between what they are playing and other music you hear together, find them record...
by dave.d
Sat Sep 17, 2011 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Zweig - Is Gold Cheap? Who Knows?
Replies: 15
Views: 2805

John Hussman (whom I respect even if I don't follow most of his advice) has also been pounding the table for gold-mining stocks, based on a historic relationship between the level of a gold stock index and the price of gold. He says the ratio of gold price to the ^XAU index (that's the Yahoo symbol)...
by dave.d
Tue Sep 13, 2011 6:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have You Ever Made an Trading "Typo"?
Replies: 27
Views: 3650

Attempted in my 401(k) to buy 1,000 shares of a low-priced closed-end fund ($2 or $3 a share, previously around $10), which invested in distressed debt and was trading at a substantial discount to NAV at the height of the financial crisis. I accidentally bought only 100 shares, wasting a $20 commiss...
by dave.d
Mon Sep 12, 2011 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dart-throwing chimp(s) index fund
Replies: 15
Views: 4696

If you throw darts at the stock page, will you get disproportionately small value stocks? Before we conclude the chimps are skilled, we need to account for their factor loads If you're talking the typical S&P 500 or largest 1000 stock listings then an equal weight index would be a better benchm...
by dave.d
Sun Sep 11, 2011 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dart-throwing chimp(s) index fund
Replies: 15
Views: 4696

If you throw darts at the stock page, will you get disproportionately small value stocks? Before we conclude the chimps are skilled, we need to account for their factor loads ;)
by dave.d
Fri Sep 09, 2011 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A New Equity Target Allocation (ETA) Formula
Replies: 21
Views: 2771

Re: Real Interest Rates & Asset Alloc. Formulas

Hi Dave, sounds like you have a very sophisticated formula. I considered taking account of real interest rates in a similar way in my Equity Target Allocation formula, but finally decided against it based on the following argument. The stock market is much more sensitive to interest rate fluctuatio...
by dave.d
Fri Sep 09, 2011 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Overbalancing
Replies: 1
Views: 653

This recently-posted approach is overbalancing between stocks and bonds: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=81881 If you want to do something only among different types of stocks, you could do something like invest in U.S., developed international and emerging markets in some way propor...
by dave.d
Sun Sep 04, 2011 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A New Equity Target Allocation (ETA) Formula
Replies: 21
Views: 2771

M B wrote:If PE10 = 10 then have 17% less stocks.

M B,

Don't you mean, "If PE10 = 10 then have 17% more stocks"??
by dave.d
Sun Sep 04, 2011 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A New Equity Target Allocation (ETA) Formula
Replies: 21
Views: 2771

Neil - For what it's worth, what you propose is very similar to what I am doing. I use a projected real equity return which is based on a mixed model of PE10, S&P/nominal GDP, Gordon equation and John Hussman's model, plus an estimate of small and value premia. I compare that with an average rea...
by dave.d
Sat Sep 03, 2011 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: monthly TIPS update
Replies: 3
Views: 688

you have to play with the cards dealt to you

In this case, current yields are like holding an inside straight :cry:
by dave.d
Thu Sep 01, 2011 11:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I've just made $2Million Now What?
Replies: 52
Views: 11512

I would consider a relatively long period for averaging in, longer than 6-12 months. I invested a sizeable inheritance over about 2 years, which turned out to be 2006-08... thanks to this board, I kept my head and did alright, making more money in the rebound than I lost in the downturn. But your ri...
by dave.d
Sat Aug 20, 2011 8:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you need your faith in our youth refreshed?
Replies: 35
Views: 3738

The insight is surely related to Mandelbrot's Fractal Geometry of Nature. http://www.amazon.com/Fractal-Geometry-Nature-Benoit-Mandelbrot/dp/0716711869
by dave.d
Mon Aug 15, 2011 8:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: GMO's Projected Real Returns 8/11
Replies: 42
Views: 4058

But the forecast fair values don't change, or at least not by much. It's the prices that change, and that changes the expected returns.
by dave.d
Mon Aug 15, 2011 8:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Congratulations to Jim Thome!
Replies: 14
Views: 2444

I remember playing Rotisserie baseball his rookie year, I think it was 1994. Thome was THE hot prospect, the one everybody was sure would become a big star and run up good numbers. Sounds like the market was efficient! I also recall from that year a Toronto Blue Jay named Carlos Delgado, who explode...
by dave.d
Thu Aug 11, 2011 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why are TIPs having such a good run lately?
Replies: 35
Views: 4696

TIPS have done so well, I sold the last of my remaining holdings in separate funds (e.g. VIPSX) at Wednesday's close as the real yield on the 10-year went below zero. I still have some held as collateral in the PIMCO commodity fund PCRIX. I'm implicitly doubting that investors will accept zero real ...
by dave.d
Thu Aug 11, 2011 9:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite malapropisms
Replies: 64
Views: 7598

Kulak wrote:Question, though: If you create a non-word by misapplying a rule like that (vs. misusing a real word), is it still a malapropism or is it called something else?

I think that would be a hypercorrection, as described here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypercorrection
by dave.d
Sat Aug 06, 2011 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's thoughts on S&P downgrade
Replies: 21
Views: 3242

"Stay the course" is what Mr. Bogle inscribed in my copy of the Little Book of Common Sense Investing at Diehards in 2007.
by dave.d
Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dan Neil in WSJ: Chevy Volt a success
Replies: 334
Views: 33592

Not necessarily. You can produce your own solar electricity to charge your car and then you will be truly have zero emissions, as well as very little transmission losses since you produce the electricity locally. In other words, the $41,000 for the car is just the start. You'll also need to be purc...
by dave.d
Sat Jul 30, 2011 10:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: engineering career as one ages
Replies: 69
Views: 8605

There are "engineers" in some sense in many professions. I'm a lawyer, and it's said there are three kinds: plumbers, engineers, and physicists. I've always been an engineer. I actually worked as a software engineer out of college, doing beta test administration in a software developement ...
by dave.d
Sat Jul 30, 2011 9:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard sent me a check for 9 cents
Replies: 34
Views: 4942

I have an account with ScottTrade that was part of my father's estate which has a balance of one cent. I called and emailed them about it several times, authorized them to take the penny, or send a check if they couldn't. Never happened; somewhere I think I still have the name of the employee I was ...
by dave.d
Fri Jul 01, 2011 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did anybody short Treasuries?
Replies: 6
Views: 1232

I missed the boat -- wasn't paying attention Friday a week ago when the yield got down to 1.4%. Which is of course the trouble with this sort of thing. My interest has faded rapidly as the 5-year yield is now back up to 1.8%. If I had gotten in, I'd already be thinking about getting out! Much easier...
by dave.d
Fri Jul 01, 2011 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yahoo format changed again, affecting spreadsheet import
Replies: 27
Views: 5602

I see Gummy's solution works very quickly and elegantly in IE to pull in a CSV table with all the needed data, but this doesn't seem to work as a link to external data in OO (perhaps if I keep in a different file, but then would I have to open both to update?). I think I recall that Google Docs impo...
by dave.d
Fri Jul 01, 2011 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help understanding the Graham Quote
Replies: 14
Views: 1236

To attempt a longer paraphrase: In the short term, prices are determined by traders' preferences for what they want to own or not own, simply supply and demand. In the long term, however, values of assets are ultimately determined by the cash flows they represent; for example, stock is claim on a st...
by dave.d
Sun Jun 12, 2011 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Things that will Disappear in our Lifetime.....anything else
Replies: 75
Views: 8825

SP-diceman wrote:The post office cant go away, they sell “forever” stamps.

If they did, would it be a default? Remember, forever stamps are just little inflation-protected government bonds. ;)
by dave.d
Sat Jun 11, 2011 6:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Things that will Disappear in our Lifetime.....anything else
Replies: 75
Views: 8825

I disagree mildly about land-line telephones. They will be, or are already becoming, limited to families with kids under a certain age. With a family, though, sometimes you need to reach THE HOUSE, whoever is home, rather than a particular person, and that's not going to change. Among younger people...
by dave.d
Sun Jun 05, 2011 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did anybody short Treasuries?
Replies: 6
Views: 1232

I haven't yet, but I'm seriously considering it since the yield on the 5-year has gone under 2% again (currently 1.6%). IMHO the 5-year offers the best-looking combination of low yield and potential capital gains if and when yields normalize. The bottom on yields (top on price) in early November 201...
by dave.d
Sat May 28, 2011 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International Stock Index portfolio portion reference
Replies: 31
Views: 2323

The argument against market weight is currency risk. Ferri's All About Asset Allocation identified a historic efficient frontier at about 25% international. I'm about 32%.
by dave.d
Sat May 28, 2011 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Precious Metals in Your Portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 3738

I hold a total of 2.5% split evenly between gold (GLD) and gold mining shares (GDX). There are imaginable scenarios where even these small amounts could make a bad year less bad. It is correct that gold has a zero expected return, but you can reasonably expect over time to make (modest) money rebala...
by dave.d
Sat May 28, 2011 9:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early inheritance???
Replies: 14
Views: 2313

I'm no expert, and don't know all the relevant technical terms, but that sounds correct to me in principle. The giver will have to file a gift tax return this year, but can avoid any actual tax by declaring the use of part of what used to be called the unified credit (so called because it could be u...
by dave.d
Sat May 28, 2011 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there such a thing as "good" market timing?
Replies: 93
Views: 6508

Fred, note that you can replace the giant table with a one-line formula that can actually be put in a spreadsheet AND will handle in-between cases smoothly. MUCH easier.
by dave.d
Tue May 17, 2011 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Transferring Brokerage Account out of Edward Jones
Replies: 4
Views: 2683

Transfer anywhere decent, and you'll probably pay a lot less than $870-900. How many stock positions are there, anyway? Schwab for example would be $9.99 a trade, and Vanguard I think $8 a trade, assuming it makes sense to sell the individual stocks (a topic that I know has been discussed on this bo...
by dave.d
Tue May 17, 2011 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Experience in 2008: did your AA lose more than expected?
Replies: 23
Views: 2221

Worse than expected, because I owned substantially all corporate bonds. And yes, the corporate bonds have recovered nicely, but i could have done more rebalancing at low stock prices if I had bought some treasuries back when they had decent yields. I'm currently trying to NOT learn the lesson of his...