Search found 162 matches

by JamesDean44
Fri Aug 07, 2020 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2011
Views: 159712

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Interesting and very topical discussion Steve Reading and Vineviz. Not sure what derailed it, but I must assume a misunderstanding. I think most folks respect each of your opinions and appreciate your analyses in this and other threads. On a different note, my employer just cut out DFSVX for a Vangu...
by JamesDean44
Fri Aug 07, 2020 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 479
Views: 42161

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

I like the idea of this fund and it seems well executed. Ultimately, I decided it's not for me. I'm curious though, for those who have a significant % of assets in this fund, what is your exit strategy? When mid-long term bond return starting to crack under the pressure of inflation expectation and...
by JamesDean44
Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2011
Views: 159712

Re: Haystacks

Bogleheads: There can be more than one "haystack." Good one's, mediocre ones and bad one's. Taylor, No one knows which haystacks are mediocre (I am not a prophet). So we buy them all and don't have to guess. Add a bit of bonds, and you have a very powerful portfolio. The 3-Fund portfolio . Here's w...
by JamesDean44
Mon Jul 20, 2020 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Accumulation vs. Retirement---PSLDX vs. NTSX ???
Replies: 20
Views: 1301

Re: Accumulation vs. Retirement---PSLDX vs. NTSX ???

Thanks, crystalbank. That is a great explanation and tells me exactly what I wanted to know. (I have gone through the longer threads on these funds and not seen anything as lucid comparing the two and describing their mechanics and risks.) So, in general, an emphasis on PSLDX is likely to be more g...
by JamesDean44
Mon Jul 20, 2020 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adaptive Asset Allocation Spreadsheet
Replies: 9
Views: 745

Re: Adaptive Asset Allocation Spreadsheet

Hello - I have followed the discussion recently regarding applying Adaptive Asset Allocation with much interest and after spending a fair amount of time using the PV tool I am interested in using this AA methodology for my portfolio. I've ordered the book "Adaptive Asset Allocation: Dynamic Global ...
by JamesDean44
Mon Jul 20, 2020 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Accumulation vs. Retirement---PSLDX vs. NTSX ???
Replies: 20
Views: 1301

Re: Accumulation vs. Retirement---PSLDX vs. NTSX ???

Thanks, crystalbank. That is a great explanation and tells me exactly what I wanted to know. (I have gone through the longer threads on these funds and not seen anything as lucid comparing the two and describing their mechanics and risks.) So, in general, an emphasis on PSLDX is likely to be more g...
by JamesDean44
Sun Jul 19, 2020 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Standpoint (BLNDX, REMIX)
Replies: 8
Views: 398

Re: Standpoint (BLNDX, REMIX)

You are essentially paying double the ER for the managed futures strategy because the passive portion could be achieved for free outside of this product. So are you really willing to pay ~250bps a year for this strategy? I haven't looked into this particular fund, but this was my initial reaction t...
by JamesDean44
Sat Jul 18, 2020 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 479
Views: 42161

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

What is important is the net result, not the fees. Agreed. Of course only one of those is predictable... I am not too willing to guarantee a loss of 30% of my lifetime returns to a > 1% ER. Would you turn down an annual bonus because you'd have to pay more in taxes? It isn't just about the ER, as h...
by JamesDean44
Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Monte Carlo Simulations: Pros, Cons and Value
Replies: 58
Views: 2685

Re: Monte Carlo Simulations: Pros, Cons and Value

You're really asking two different questions. First, whether MC simulations are useful. Yes, of course they are useful depending upon the inputs/assumptions and type of analysis. But you obviously cannot rely just on historical returns and the MC isn't going to account for everything. All of the iss...
by JamesDean44
Wed Jul 08, 2020 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"
Replies: 55
Views: 6043

Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

Bogleheads: Dan Sotiroff, a passive strategies research analyst for Morningstar, has written an insightful article about foreign stock funds with these observations and suggestions: "They've (foreign stocks) underperformed by around 6%-7% in aggregate. That's sort of just a continuing story of what...
by JamesDean44
Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ready to Pull the Trigger on Small Cap Value
Replies: 31
Views: 2191

Re: Ready to Pull the Trigger on Small Cap Value

I've been doing a huge amount of research on investing in small cap value recently. I was initially quite resistant to the idea as I'm a big believer in the EMH from my time as an economics undergrad student, but I have come to accept the risk based explanation and even the behavioral explanation t...
by JamesDean44
Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Stone Ridge interval funds, 1) bitcoin futures, 2) for 65-year-old women only (sort of)
Replies: 28
Views: 1883

Re: New Stone Ridge interval funds, 1) bitcoin futures, 2) for 65-year-old women only (sort of)

I am very glad I don't have any money there. I wonder if Larry Swedroe is still recommending them. 1) A priori, should the 'normal' state of bitcoin futures be backwardation or contango? 2) Should the expected roll return for this type of fund be positive or negative? The reason I ask is because my...
by JamesDean44
Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Value Betting vs. The Stock Market"
Replies: 18
Views: 1858

Re: "Value Betting vs. The Stock Market"

vineviz wrote:
Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:13 am
nedsaid wrote:
Sat Jul 04, 2020 9:32 am
Taylor, of all people, you have fallen for recency bias.
If fairness to Taylor, market timing and performance chasing are very hard habits to quit.
It's just "de-risking" and "simplifying."
by JamesDean44
Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Value Betting vs. The Stock Market"
Replies: 18
Views: 1858

Re: "Value Betting vs. The Stock Market"

Value Investors: I accidently came across this article: "Value Betting vs. The Stock Market." May be helpful for those who like to bet on value stocks outperforming the total stock market. :oops: https://www.rebelbetting.com/blog/value-betting-vs-the-stock-market Best wishes. Taylor Jack Bogle's Wo...
by JamesDean44
Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Replacing total bond index with gold ETF in my portfolio?
Replies: 16
Views: 1307

Re: Replacing total bond index with gold ETF in my portfolio?

More information is needed. In general terms and in the abstract, gold isn't a replacement for total bond. If total bond is 10% of your portfolio, then "replacing" it with 5% gold and 5% long term treasuries or 10% gold might satisfy your goals. Much different if you're talking about replacing a 50%...
by JamesDean44
Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50% VTSAX (VANGUARD) & 50% Gold (One Gold)
Replies: 53
Views: 4110

Re: 50% VTSAX (VANGUARD) & 50% Gold (One Gold)

I’m trying to diversify but still try to achieve positive real returns on my portfolio. Is still a smart buy and hold? Please give your pros and cons and whether I should maybe go 60/40 or 70/30? I don’t really want to hold bonds at this time. I trust the mind pool that is the boglehead community t...
by JamesDean44
Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 19256

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

Recency bias. Chasing the puck. Resulting. Japan. Lost decade. Diversification = free lunch.
by JamesDean44
Wed Jul 01, 2020 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much tilting to SCV (rule of thumb)?
Replies: 95
Views: 6222

Re: How much tilting to SCV in or near retirement?

It is obvious to me that overweighting Small Cap Value stocks in or near retirement can be a major mistake. Consider the current retirement portfolios of investors who tried to beat the market by overweighting Small Cap Value stocks 10 years ago. They are way behind investors using low-cost, tax-ef...
by JamesDean44
Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2011
Views: 159712

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Forester wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:54 pm
Contrary opinion; value is a short volatility strategy

https://www.logicafunds.com/talking-yo ... ut-value-3
Interesting, thanks for sharing.
by JamesDean44
Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much tilting to SCV (rule of thumb)?
Replies: 95
Views: 6222

Re: How much tilting to SCV in or near retirement?

It is obvious to me that overweighting Small Cap Value stocks in or near retirement can be a major mistake. Consider the current retirement portfolios of investors who tried to beat the market by overweighting Small Cap Value stocks 10 years ago. They are way behind investors using low-cost, tax-ef...
by JamesDean44
Sat Jun 27, 2020 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Entering ETF space
Replies: 34
Views: 2961

Re: DFA Entering ETF space

More details: https://riabiz.com/a/2020/6/27/dimensional-fund-advisors-finally-launches-etfs-but-as-a-defensive-measure-as-outflows-mount-morningstar-says Avantis filed for 3 more ETFs? I wonder what they are? Please EM SCV and its adios to my old 401k where I hold dfevx. Looks like bond funds: "Th...
by JamesDean44
Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Entering ETF space
Replies: 34
Views: 2961

Re: DFA Entering ETF space

Wade Garrett wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 4:53 pm
JamesDean44 wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:08 am
the use of "core" suggests that these won't be replacements for the Avantis ETFs.
Avantis has core ETFs too
Right you are. I guess I'm too laser focused on AVDV and AVUV.
by JamesDean44
Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much tilting to SCV (rule of thumb)?
Replies: 95
Views: 6222

Re: How much tilting to SCV (rule of thumb)?

The Market-RiskFree return is substantially greater than SmB or HmL. Uncertainty in the betas is only one piece. There is also the uncertainty in the returns. The t-stat is a measure of statistical significance (probability that underlying return != 0). These are approximately the same for all fact...
by JamesDean44
Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Entering ETF space
Replies: 34
Views: 2961

Re: DFA Entering ETF space

Massdriver wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 8:46 am
I hope this doesn't take capital away from Avantis.
I haven't actually read the prospectus in the OP yet, but the use of "core" suggests that these won't be replacements for the Avantis ETFs. We'll see.
by JamesDean44
Fri Jun 26, 2020 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Entering ETF space
Replies: 34
Views: 2961

Re: DFA Entering ETF space

With ETFs, their holdings will have to be continually transparent, no? I wonder if this factored into how long it took them and which funds to make an equivalent ETF for. The SEC has blessed semi-transparent ETFs that do not disclose on a daily basis their full holdings with percentages. I don't kn...
by JamesDean44
Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 479
Views: 42161

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

To replicate PSLDX in a taxable https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&fr...
by JamesDean44
Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bond duration glide path for retirement investing
Replies: 61
Views: 4186

Re: A bond duration glide path for retirement investing

Why can't you just buy intermediate term bonds and get the average of the short and long? Since no one knows where interest rates are going to be, it seems this is a better idea. The OP isn't about timing the market or predicting where rates could go. It is about reducing interest rate risk (and re...
by JamesDean44
Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much tilting to SCV (rule of thumb)?
Replies: 95
Views: 6222

Re: How much tilting to SCV (rule of thumb)?

Not sure I'm adding anything that hasn't been said above, but I'll throw in my 2 cents: It doesn't make any sense to me why one would reduce the SCV allocation as a percentage of equities as one draws nearer to retirement. If you believe that exposure to certain factors diversifies a portfolio, then...
by JamesDean44
Mon Jun 22, 2020 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Top 10 Things Bogleheads Get Wrong - White Coat Investor
Replies: 143
Views: 13864

Re: Top 10 Things Bogleheads Get Wrong - White Coat Investor

I also never got the sense that the three fund portfolio is being placed on a pedestal here. Taylor suggests it often, but that's his view and his is one voice among many--part of the diversity of opinions being expressed. I've suggested the three fund portfolio sometimes, when I felt simplicity is...
by JamesDean44
Mon Jun 22, 2020 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads Poll!
Replies: 5
Views: 877

Re: Bogleheads Poll!

Newtothis92 wrote:
Mon Jun 22, 2020 1:25 pm
Do you expect VTSAX (US stocks) to beat inflation over the long term (20 plus years)?
Yes.
by JamesDean44
Mon Jun 22, 2020 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The long-term bearish case against real estate - both commercial and residential REITs
Replies: 20
Views: 1906

Re: The long-term bearish case against real estate - both commercial and residential REITs

Man REET is getting hammered compared to VNQ. Are they not supposedly comparable vehicles? REET is global. Try comparing 2/3 VNQ and 1/3 VNQI compared to REET. REET may have some sector differences too, but I don't remember. There are probably other differences, but I generally think of them as com...
by JamesDean44
Wed Jun 17, 2020 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy
Replies: 200
Views: 16429

Re: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy

I thought I would look at the most recent performance history for much talked about Alternative Investments as a source of return not correlated to stocks. Larry Swedroe recommended these four funds: AQR Style Premia Alternative I fund QSPIX 3 Month Return -10.80% YTD Return -16.93% 1 Year Return -...
by JamesDean44
Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2011
Views: 159712

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Let me lure you into the dark path of value investing. You know what would be even better than reverting? That they stay the same (even better if they keep widening). Think about it. The "yield" of value (if you think of it as an interesting rate) is higher. It will produce higher returns long term...
by JamesDean44
Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2011
Views: 159712

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Are there any tools that can check/calculate the profitability factor? I've been updating myself on SCV literature, and it looks like SCV-tilt needs to remove small-cap low-profitability stocks in order for the size premium to be consistently performing. How do I check if the ETF I am using like IJ...
by JamesDean44
Sun Jun 14, 2020 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard Is Combining Two Slumping Value Funds]
Replies: 10
Views: 2076

Re: [Vanguard Is Combining Two Slumping Value Funds]

I've held Windsor forever... probably my first fund - Now, looking at the perf over the past couple of years, AND thinking about consolidating funds.... does it make sense to still hold this Windsor VWNEX fund vs just exchanging it all into our Total Stock VTSAX fund ? Depends upon why you bought W...
by JamesDean44
Sun Jun 14, 2020 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - Does anyone own some?
Replies: 69
Views: 3738

Re: Utilities - Does anyone own some?

Cheez-It Guy wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 1:46 pm
Yes, I own two utilities:

Image
:sharebeer
by JamesDean44
Sun Jun 14, 2020 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Private Equity Gets a Big Win With U.S. Nod to Tap 401(k) Plans
Replies: 65
Views: 5274

Re: Private Equity Gets a Big Win With U.S. Nod to Tap 401(k) Plans

Surely no one here believes that the private equity firms have been spending millions of dollars lobbying government officials to loosen security rules that protect investors because of their desire to make 401(k) savers rich. This just popped up in my news feed, and I thought I'd share. The title ...
by JamesDean44
Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2011
Views: 159712

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Forester wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:28 pm
The SCV revival may have only lasted a couple of weeks, but no one can take those precious memories away from me. Years from now we will look back at the halcyon days of May to early June 2020.
Right. At least we can again rejoice that prices are lower.
by JamesDean44
Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Direxion’s QMJ long short fund]
Replies: 48
Views: 2071

Re: [Direxion’s QMJ long short fund]

Update for QMJ and ESNG, I'm taken positions in both, like how they've done so far. https://i.ibb.co/cQ62YWS/Chart-20200610-171958.png I am not interested in ESNG, but I was curious about its holdings. The short positions were interesting: Top 5 Short Holdings % Netflix -3.96 Monster Beverage -3.11...
by JamesDean44
Wed Jun 10, 2020 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 479
Views: 42161

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

PSLDX is 100% my 401K thru Schwab $50 transaction fee each time i buy (twice monthly), dont like it but better than nothing thanks VJ How much are you buying at a time? That's quite a fee to incur twice a month. You might consider the leveraged ETFs and then buy PSLDX in larger quantities less freq...
by JamesDean44
Wed Jun 10, 2020 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2011
Views: 159712

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

"but I would be very skeptical of tilts of any kind providing excess returns other than by random chance." Do you mean risk-adjusted returns? Against my better judgement, I'm trying to understand your position. John C. Bogle has addressed this in his paper The Telltale Chart . There have been long ...
by JamesDean44
Wed Jun 10, 2020 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index
Replies: 195
Views: 17122

Re: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index

I don't have a citation in front of me, but Swedroe has also made the point that LTTs are the best diversifier for an equity-heavy portfolio. The "no total bond index" concept is based on Swedroe's "Winning Bond Strategy" which doesn't even mention equities except for a few paragraphs on pages 132 ...
by JamesDean44
Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index
Replies: 195
Views: 17122

Re: Swedroe’s Bond Advice - no total bond index

I don't have a citation in front of me, but Swedroe has also made the point that LTTs are the best diversifier for an equity-heavy portfolio.
by JamesDean44
Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2011
Views: 159712

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Oh ok. I didn't realize you had some secret sauce you weren't going to share. Then what is the point of your posts about how you timed the market in some undisclosed way? The point is that people should investigate and learn something and not become leeches and follow someone else's formula without...
by JamesDean44
Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In which type of account should I do my active trading?
Replies: 22
Views: 1560

Re: In which type of account should I do my active trading?

It also depends what you're active trading is. E.g. there are systematic strategies that are very active and would therefore work much better, or only work, in tax advantaged space.
by JamesDean44
Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In which type of account should I do my active trading?
Replies: 22
Views: 1560

Re: In which type of account should I do my active trading?

You can use those losses to reduce ordinary income and carry forward and offset gains. The idea that active trading should always be done in taxable ignores that it may not be making the most efficient use of your harvested losses. Ha! Who said that active trading would offset losses? If one just c...
by JamesDean44
Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2011
Views: 159712

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Mind linking to a thread where you explain your RBD methodology and whether it has improved returns. I've seen you discuss timing the market repeatedly without articulating what you're doing. From what I can tell, it seems like there is some objective measure you have combined with a lot of subject...
by JamesDean44
Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In which type of account should I do my active trading?
Replies: 22
Views: 1560

Re: In which type of account should I do my active trading?

You turned it into a tax-advantaged account by losing money. You could instead use those same investment losses to reduce your ordinary income, depending upon the amount of the losses. I don't dispute that Roth space is valuable, so trading in taxable might still be the best course. But the suggest...
by JamesDean44
Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2011
Views: 159712

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

RBD for IJS? -4% (VUG +0.1%) Not even close. IJS would have to drop -6.9% for it to be an RBD. Mind linking to a thread where you explain your RBD methodology and whether it has improved returns. I've seen you discuss timing the market repeatedly without articulating what you're doing. From what I ...