Search found 1330 matches

by stocknoob4111
Wed Jun 03, 2020 1:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Chasing Individual Stocks
Replies: 51
Views: 2897

Re: Chasing Individual Stocks

Yeah, that's gutsy. I can't imagine putting $100K into ONE stock. I've heard that old saying ... no guts, no glory... same friend who chases individual stocks bought the airlines and the cruise lines at their lows and is now laughing all the way to the bank!! He bought Royal Caribbean at the lows a...
by stocknoob4111
Tue Jun 02, 2020 3:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5894
Views: 500737

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Stinky wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:37 pm
.

But for quarter to date, International up 15.03%, Total Stock up 19.98%. International still lags pretty badly.
2014 to date International is down in real terms -0.2% pretty awful for a 6+ year period, I guess buy and hold over the long haul isn't quite working with this asset class
by stocknoob4111
Sat May 30, 2020 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting plane tickets refunded from Virgin
Replies: 22
Views: 1094

Re: Getting plane tickets refunded from Virgin

I believe it was a courteousy credit because I got an email from Chase that said "we are pleased to report that your dispute has been resolved and the full amount has been credited". I guess it wasn't worth their time to deal with this agency and they may have a historical record of others filing ag...
by stocknoob4111
Sat May 30, 2020 12:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting plane tickets refunded from Virgin
Replies: 22
Views: 1094

Re: Getting plane tickets refunded from Virgin

Thank you SO MUCH for posting this. No worries, glad it worked out for you :sharebeer I disputed the $100 fee that my agent charged me illegally with the credit card, I got reimbursed immediately as well :happy I work in the ticketing space (sports, not travel) but we've had event cancellations and...
by stocknoob4111
Fri May 29, 2020 12:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Airline refusing to issue refunds
Replies: 152
Views: 13381

Re: Airline refusing to issue refunds

Did anyone here successfully dispute Ovago's shady $100 "agent fee"?
by stocknoob4111
Fri May 29, 2020 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting plane tickets refunded from Virgin
Replies: 22
Views: 1094

Re: Getting plane tickets refunded from Virgin

Did you book with Ovago? THere was a thread about Ovago charging a $100 service fee to submit a refund request to the airline. yep, it was through Ovago. This is an incredibly shady outfit and I'm wondering what else they are capable of if I dispute their $100 fee and if I should just cut my losses...
by stocknoob4111
Fri May 29, 2020 2:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting plane tickets refunded from Virgin
Replies: 22
Views: 1094

Re: Getting plane tickets refunded from Virgin

Chargeback timeframes for air travel are from the date of departure or the date the flight was cancelled not the date of purchase, this is because the service is in the future. I just went through this with Chase and Air NZ with tickets booked over 4 months ago for departure in August. Although Chas...
by stocknoob4111
Wed May 27, 2020 12:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5894
Views: 500737

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Futures are now well over the 200 dma, if tomorrow holds then barring any further shocks (example a 2nd wave) downside seems limited... opinions?
by stocknoob4111
Tue May 26, 2020 3:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18853
Views: 2635737

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

3000 is the 200 dma, we may be in for a nasty reversal if next few days do not hold
by stocknoob4111
Mon May 25, 2020 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Examples of why NOT to hold individual stocks
Replies: 93
Views: 7393

Re: Examples of why NOT to hold individual stocks

I own a fraction of Hertz since it's part of the Russell 2000 :D
by stocknoob4111
Mon May 25, 2020 5:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Has anyone ever used their Emergency Fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 7182

Re: Has anyone ever used their Emergency Fund?

When dividends are paid the fund price drops by the same amount. Dividends do not create value from thin air. We should not assume that a 2.25% guarantees any kind of return. They do, however, one would imagine that the NAV goes up by the same amount over that period to reflect earnings otherwise t...
by stocknoob4111
Sun May 24, 2020 8:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Time until money doubles
Replies: 26
Views: 2608

Re: Time until money doubles

The projection going forward is about 3% return on stocks and zero on bonds so effective growth at 2.55% using rule of 72 would give you around 29 years or so for your money to double.
by stocknoob4111
Sun May 24, 2020 5:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Has anyone ever used their Emergency Fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 7182

Re: Has anyone ever used their Emergency Fund?

Have you actually evaluated the “opportunity cost” of keeping an emergency fund in a high toiled savings accounting getting 1.25% vs investing it in the stock market based on your asset allocation? Let’s say you spend $8k a month that is $48k for 6 month EF. At 1.25% that will give you $600. If inv...
by stocknoob4111
Sun May 24, 2020 5:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Has anyone ever used their Emergency Fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 7182

Re: Has anyone ever used their Emergency Fund?

In 21 years of working I have never used my Emergency Fund... but of course the past isn't indicative of the future, which is why I still have a 8 month Emergency Fund losing value to inflation (I have it at 1.3% high yield savings but net taxes that's half that), it's hard to see but it is the cost...
by stocknoob4111
Fri May 22, 2020 9:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How a SIM swap attack works
Replies: 31
Views: 4118

Re: How a SIM swap attack works

Can you call Mint Mobile and ask them to add a PIN to your account that will prevent the SIM being replaced without the PIN? Don't forget to write the PIN down somewhere and keep it safe. They don't support security PINs. I took a different strategy - I acquired a Google Voice number and changed th...
by stocknoob4111
Fri May 22, 2020 6:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How a SIM swap attack works
Replies: 31
Views: 4118

Re: How a SIM swap attack works

I had Google Fi which is tied in to Google Account which is setup using Google Authenticator. I recently switched from Fi to Mint Mobile and now i'm concerned about this. It looks like Vanguard still has pretty dismal security and can be easily hacked using a SIM Swap attack. Any way to prevent this...
by stocknoob4111
Thu May 21, 2020 9:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Chasing Individual Stocks
Replies: 51
Views: 2897

Re: Chasing Individual Stocks

Yeah, that's gutsy. I can't imagine putting $100K into ONE stock. I've heard that old saying ... no guts, no glory... A lot of people now are dabbling with individual stocks and making a killing.. Another friend of mine bought CCL (Carnival Cruise lines) at $10, not even the absolute bottom (which ...
by stocknoob4111
Thu May 21, 2020 8:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Chasing Individual Stocks
Replies: 51
Views: 2897

Re: Chasing Individual Stocks

A friend bought $100K of FB at $147, at the time I thought he was nuts to take so much risk, well... he sold today at $230 making a cool $56,000 in profit for holding 30 days. Meanwhile my diversified index based portfolio has gone nowhere in the last Two and Half years :oops: Buying individual stoc...
by stocknoob4111
Tue May 19, 2020 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15506

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

How does Small Caps and International in the mix affect the 4% rule? Small Caps are ridiculously volatile and just wondering how the SWR is affected due to that, I have 22% of my portfolio in the S&P 600 and another 20% in International... that's 42% of my portfolio in assets that have had a disastr...
by stocknoob4111
Tue May 12, 2020 7:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice: next financial move?
Replies: 10
Views: 1225

Re: Advice: next financial move?

I can imagine that seeing your industry temporarily decimated and taking a pay cut has to be tough, both psychologically and financially. But at 104k income per year and with 30K plus annual contributions to retirement funds, you’re still doing very well. I don’t have a crystal ball, but this pande...
by stocknoob4111
Tue May 12, 2020 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advantages of keeping your income below the stimulus check limits this year
Replies: 15
Views: 1899

Re: Advantages of keeping your income below the stimulus check limits this year

well, looks like the monthly payments isn't happening. The proposed round 2 is a fixed payment on par with the first round. Income limits are the same, 75K/yr single - there is no way I am going to qualify for that no matter what I deducted LOL! It's way too low of a gap for me to bridge.
by stocknoob4111
Tue May 12, 2020 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advantages of keeping your income below the stimulus check limits this year
Replies: 15
Views: 1899

Re: Advantages of keeping your income below the stimulus check limits this year

The first round had a $100k phase out which for those of us in VHCOL areas is extremely low. I took a 30% pay cut so I'm severely impacted financially but unfortunately still will not qualify for Round 2 as I see income limits proposed as $100k with full phase out at 120k. With my max 401k, HSA and ...
by stocknoob4111
Mon May 11, 2020 2:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice: next financial move?
Replies: 10
Views: 1225

Re: Advice: next financial move?

i'm trying for other jobs, however in the current situation mist employers have a hiring freeze or they are ridiculously lowballing... meanwhile COL including rents don't seem to be going down.
by stocknoob4111
Mon May 11, 2020 12:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice: next financial move?
Replies: 10
Views: 1225

Re: Advice: next financial move?

How long do you plan to be overseas? How much do you expect your home to cost after payoff? Will your walls mold or your garage be broken into? My goal is to have an inexpensive base here in the US, perhaps in the range of $200-250K.. a 1200 sqft or so townhouse in a LCOL area. I may decide to stay...
by stocknoob4111
Sun May 10, 2020 10:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice: next financial move?
Replies: 10
Views: 1225

Advice: next financial move?

Trying to be brief here... i'm 46, single, no dependents. Portfolio is 87/13, current value $601k as of close last Fri, peak value $702k on 2/19. I was previously contributing around $65k/yr annually but that has since been reduced to around $34k/yr due to pay cuts. In addition to my portfolio I hav...
by stocknoob4111
Sat May 09, 2020 3:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will "work from home" destroy the commercial real estate market?
Replies: 169
Views: 13104

Re: Will work from home destroy the commercial real estate market?

highly doubt it... I surely don't want a permanent work from home situation, I enjoy going into work and interacting with the team in person rather than virtually. I do think it's going to lead employers who were hesitant to allow remote work to now be more flexible though.. ideally I like working f...
by stocknoob4111
Fri May 08, 2020 4:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Marcus Savings Account - Interest rate is now 1.7%]
Replies: 169
Views: 23316

Re: [Marcus Savings Account - Interest rate is now 1.7%]

Not complicated, just not especially remunerative. I implied that it was complicated to find a way to park money in a way that fights off inflation... virtually all fixed income now has negative tax adjusted real yields. One can invest in equities I guess given the dividend yields right now on the ...
by stocknoob4111
Fri May 08, 2020 4:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Marcus Savings Account - Interest rate is now 1.7%]
Replies: 169
Views: 23316

Re: [Marcus Savings Account - Interest rate is now 1.7%]

I just got notice that the rate has been changed down to 1.3% now... :oops:

Parking money is becoming increasingly complicated now...
by stocknoob4111
Thu May 07, 2020 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Investment strategy from this point forward]
Replies: 50
Views: 2067

Re: [Investment strategy from this point forward]

The stock market may not be the economy but it is based on sentiment about the economy... ultimately if the economy does not match the projections of the market the decline will be sudden and shocking... so while there may be disconnect now eventually both the economy and stock market will wind up i...
by stocknoob4111
Thu May 07, 2020 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the stock market up? [thread multi-merge]
Replies: 315
Views: 16445

Re: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"

I guess the question is why is it different this time compared to '01, '08 and other past downturns where the economy tanked and so did the stock market. And another aspect is why did the stock market nosedive 40% in March but suddenly come back now? If anything things are even worse now than they w...
by stocknoob4111
Thu May 07, 2020 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Investment strategy from this point forward]
Replies: 50
Views: 2067

Re: Coronavirus economy

I am still contributing to my 401k as before, not changing anything. Yes, the market seems to be misaligned with the realities of the economy, however, a lot of bad news has already been priced in and it isn't going to be a shock anymore...the shock already happened in March. My guess is that we jus...
by stocknoob4111
Tue May 05, 2020 12:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Find myself with too much liquidity after *not* buying a house
Replies: 16
Views: 1387

Re: Find myself with too much liquidity after *not* buying a house

What exactly do you plan to do if in 12 months if it still isn't a good time to buy? Btw, I was in the same dilemma in Jan 2018, I had around 300K I was saving for a home but in my case I decided to NOT buy a home anytime in the future so I just invested it all. Good luck with your decision, it's a ...
by stocknoob4111
Tue May 05, 2020 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Relationship between market cycles and dividends
Replies: 4
Views: 251

Relationship between market cycles and dividends

I was looking at this chart: https://www.longtermtrends.net/dividend-yield/ During recessionary periods does the dividends of a broad based index like the S&P 500 remain fairly constant? This would imply that the dividend yield would increase as equity prices fall (since it's a percentage of the NAV...
by stocknoob4111
Tue May 05, 2020 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All my friends are outperforming index funds
Replies: 122
Views: 11155

Re: All my friends are outperforming index funds

I have a friend who just buys TSLA when it goes substantially down and the rides the rebound back.. well so far it's worked quite well.
by stocknoob4111
Mon May 04, 2020 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on a S&P 600 recovery
Replies: 10
Views: 1268

Re: Thoughts on a S&P 600 recovery

we are closing in on 24 months without a recovery in the S&P 600, not sure if we will have to wait another few years. The length of this decline is rather unusual though, the S&P 600 has never taken this long to recover and given our current landscape a recovery does not seem like it's on the horizo...
by stocknoob4111
Sun May 03, 2020 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Airline Stocks
Replies: 42
Views: 4001

Re: Airline Stocks

Frankly I am astonished at how expensive these stocks still are given that these companies have zero earnings at the moment and have considerable challenges earning any revenue going forward. In my opinion these companies are already bankrupt as the current business model is essentially void. Howeve...
by stocknoob4111
Sun May 03, 2020 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 717
Views: 103744

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

2000-to date Total Bond had a 5% CAGR and in the first part of the period 2000-2009 had an annualized return of almost 6.1%. Today bonds are yielding close to zero and the expectation is that they are going to stay there for the long term. In addition inflation was relatively low during the entire p...
by stocknoob4111
Fri May 01, 2020 4:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Slightly overweighting small-caps?
Replies: 33
Views: 1309

Re: Slightly overweighting small-caps?

I have a major tilt... 25% of my portfolio is Small Blend (S&P 600 - VTMSX). Yes, it has been decimated but i'm sticking to the plan. I don't see it any different from 25% International, infact since 01/2018 VTMSX has performed better than VTIAX and yet people freely hold 25, 35 or even 45% of Inter...
by stocknoob4111
Fri May 01, 2020 12:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unemployment Eligibility in South Carolina
Replies: 4
Views: 420

Re: Unemployment Eligibility in South Carolina

I don't know about your specific state but here in California any income you make is subtracted from the weekly benefit amount, the max weekly benefit amount here in CA is $450, so if my new reduced income were $500/week I would not be getting any unemployment at all.
by stocknoob4111
Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Wife is CRNA - 12% pay cut from annual base over next 4 months - Eligible for partial unemployment?
Replies: 10
Views: 1252

Re: Wife is CRNA - 12% pay cut from annual base over next 4 months - Eligible for partial unemployment?

Following....but also consider yourself somewhat lucky my wife’s group took 30% Same here, 30% pay cut from $150K to $104K, and in addition termination of my 401k match and termination of all vacation accrual. Absolutely brutal however my company is on the verge of collapse, we are in Sports/Ticket...
by stocknoob4111
Mon Apr 27, 2020 1:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40949

Re: Why international?

The only thing that should be holding International right now is a cat... since it has the required 9 lives to wait for the performance to hopefully materialize! :D Seriously, I have only 18% in International so at least I am not making the type of bet these Target Date Funds are with 30-40% Interna...
by stocknoob4111
Sun Apr 26, 2020 6:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40949

Re: Why international?

The decade chart seems to imply that International had positive returns in the 2010s.. backtesting VTIAX the results are not good, rather they are actually HORRIFIC. International has performed so bad in the 2010s it is just shocking, there is no other way to put it :shock: Jan 2011 (inception) - Ma...
by stocknoob4111
Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Early retirees who were close - how are you adjusting
Replies: 45
Views: 6136

Early retirees who were close - how are you adjusting

This question is to any early retirees here (<= 55 years old) who were very close to retirement and had just reached a number to support the 4% rule. Now that your portfolio has fallen quite a bit have you decided to go ahead and retire anyway, pushed out your retirement date or decided to retire bu...
by stocknoob4111
Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Impacted and looking at next steps
Replies: 5
Views: 701

Re: Impacted and looking at next steps

If you work for a CA company, unless that company also does business in the state you are going to, you will pay CA taxes on your employment. Thanks for the info, I was doing some sleuthing about the company and found out that it is incorporated in GA so not sure if that changes things. I'm guessin...
by stocknoob4111
Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Impacted and looking at next steps
Replies: 5
Views: 701

Impacted and looking at next steps

Currently a CA resident working for a CA company. Unfortunately 50% of my company has been furloughed. I'm not but my pay has been cut 30% and all my benefits (Vacation, 401k Match) have been terminated. I work in Sports, we are a ticketing company, I work in Software Engineering and started 2020 wi...
by stocknoob4111
Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.
Replies: 151
Views: 14898

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Can someone please tell me when I can expect my property taxes, homeowners insurance, health insurance, healthcare bills, car insurance, and college bills to deflate? I have seen significant inflation over the last 12 months, ranging from 5% to 30% depending on item. And I shop around! Deflation is...
by stocknoob4111
Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.
Replies: 151
Views: 14898

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Deflation? I don't think so. Rather the opposite, the price of everything at my grocery store has gone up - eggs shot up by 50% due to no supply. I scheduled an oil change at my local dealer and the price has gone up by $10 probably to compensate for the lack of work which is odd since I thought tha...
by stocknoob4111
Sun Apr 19, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cash equivalent that keeps up with inflation
Replies: 2
Views: 426

Cash equivalent that keeps up with inflation

At this moment is there any place that can be considered a cash equivalent that has an after tax yield to keep up with inflation (assume taxes are 30%)? TIPS does not seem to work since it has interest rate risk. I know a popular strategy for some retirees is to keep a separate allocation of a few y...
by stocknoob4111
Sun Apr 19, 2020 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any reason to keep Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund?
Replies: 16
Views: 2598

Re: Any reason to keep Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund?

I'm doing the same, VMFXX has a yield of 0.55% and my Marcus Savings is 1.55% it's a no-brainer.

Question - You can only fund Mutual Fund purchases using an external account right? An ETF purchase does not seem to have that option.