Search found 763 matches

by stocknoob4111
Thu Oct 17, 2019 12:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1547
Views: 160028

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

It's been two years of sideways taunting since January 2018. Something will give, either up or down. looking at the past it does look like a 24 month period of consolidation usually results in a breakout to the upside, especially since we had a nasty pullback last Dec. I don't think we would've mai...
by stocknoob4111
Mon Oct 14, 2019 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point would Bonds be considered a bubble or 'speculative asset'?
Replies: 51
Views: 4646

Re: At what point would Bonds be considered a bubble or 'speculative asset'?

I find it laughable when I see a cover such as "The end of Inflation" when my rent just went up 6%, gas is at an all time high here in CA ($4.20 for regular), Healthcare premiums are skyrocketing, cost of groceries are going up, cost of automobiles are sky high etc. etc. Either their definition of I...
by stocknoob4111
Fri Oct 11, 2019 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What should Bond Percentage be as I age?
Replies: 11
Views: 1349

Re: What should Bond Percentage be as I age?

zero, I am considering getting rid of all my bonds... they have negative real yields at the moment. Unless you are retiring soon there is no reason to hold them and many people I have spoken to hold the same view. Dave Ramsey has mentioned it as well. Bonds as of late have also been ridiculously vol...
by stocknoob4111
Fri Oct 11, 2019 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12296
Views: 2101008

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

lostdog wrote:
Fri Oct 11, 2019 3:41 pm
I see international at 1.6%.
sorry, my bad... I was mistakenly looking at the Mutual Fund instead of the ETF which was the price from yesterday :oops:
by stocknoob4111
Fri Oct 11, 2019 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12296
Views: 2101008

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Finished up 1.09%. Nice end to the week. :beer It was up almost 2% earlier... I think up a paltry 1% on such a MAJOR positive development is negative in my view especially since we were still under the old highs even with the earlier gain. I would've liked to see a stronger showing and the sell off...
by stocknoob4111
Fri Oct 11, 2019 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12296
Views: 2101008

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

S&P 500 had a huge sell off in the last 10 minutes giving up half it's gains... that does not inspire much confidence in this rally.
by stocknoob4111
Fri Oct 11, 2019 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1547
Views: 160028

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

A trade deal or the biggest let down in recent history, either way it's going to be big.
by stocknoob4111
Wed Oct 09, 2019 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12296
Views: 2101008

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

H-Town wrote:
Wed Oct 09, 2019 6:14 pm
Lock and load!
recovered already based on reports that Huawei may be getting some concessions... in this market if you get some bad news then wait 2 hours it will change LOL! :mrgreen:
by stocknoob4111
Wed Oct 09, 2019 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: highly compensated employee (HCE) Time bomb?
Replies: 91
Views: 8275

Re: highly compensated employee (HCE) Time bomb?

I am an HCE and it has affected me intermittently... last year I got a refund of $5,000 back from my 401k contribution, this year it was way better as I was refunded only $900. Both situations I maxed out my 401k for that year. My company does not offer a Safe Harbor but I have the option to find so...
by stocknoob4111
Wed Oct 09, 2019 2:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: INTERNATIONALS 20% of Equities or 20% of Portfolio?
Replies: 57
Views: 3319

Re: INTERNATIONALS 20% of Equities or 20% of Portfolio?

I have it at 20% of Portfolio.. Most target date funds hold significantly higher.. FFFFX Fidelity 2040 for instance has it at 35% of Portfolio.
by stocknoob4111
Tue Oct 08, 2019 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12296
Views: 2101008

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

It looks like we may have a forgettable decade in front of us, if the information in my thread "Now is a good time to be an early accumulator " is right. If the market crashes around 30% right now I am fine with that... I am contributing a lot and will get a chance to lower my cost basis. I would r...
by stocknoob4111
Sun Oct 06, 2019 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: A disappointing return
Replies: 21
Views: 2158

Re: A disappointing return

I think that is typical... mine is 3.4%

International and Small Caps have essentially been zero or negative in the last 2 years. But as is said here, 2 years is way too small of a period to extrapolate anything. I think 10 years would give a better picture.
by stocknoob4111
Thu Oct 03, 2019 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12296
Views: 2101008

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Small caps had a huge run up in 2017... could be they just got run up too much and earnings didn't boom as much as expected Small Caps have been lagging all through this bull market since 2010 or so (Small Caps outperformed by small margins in 2010, 2012, 2013 and 2016) ... in 2017 Small Cap perfor...
by stocknoob4111
Thu Oct 03, 2019 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12296
Views: 2101008

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Small Cap vs Large Cap trend divergence explained: https://www.roycefunds.com/insights/2019/3Q19/when-will-small-caps-outperform-large-cap-stocks Summary: It's HIGHLY unusual for Small Caps to trail Large Caps by such a substantial margin, this has happened only in 7% of the periods in the last 20 y...
by stocknoob4111
Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12296
Views: 2101008

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I will take Chuck Royce's word for this, I have 6% of my stocks in Small Cap Value so I am not taking wild risks here. I have 28% of my portfolio in Small Cap Blend.. but I have at the very least a 20+ year time horizon before I think I *may* need to access this money so I am willing to take the be...
by stocknoob4111
Wed Oct 02, 2019 6:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I pulled out... How do I get back in?
Replies: 100
Views: 12936

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

On the other hand, a 20% drop or more would do damage to your portfolio. I read the statistics and 20% drops don't occur that often, although 5-10% drops happen much more often. We just had a 20% drop in Dec 2018 so I am not all that certain we are going to have back to back 20% drops. I feel waiti...
by stocknoob4111
Wed Oct 02, 2019 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12296
Views: 2101008

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Exactly. Wasn't the market down 20% in December? Also, when people reference the 10 year bull market it seems they are starting at market lows instead of previous market highs. Not quite sure if that's normal but it doesn't make sense to me at least. There does not seem to be a clear definition of ...
by stocknoob4111
Wed Oct 02, 2019 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12296
Views: 2101008

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

October is often a spooky month for stocks. Supposedly average volatility in the past 100 years for October has been a staggering 8.25% :shock: So, I think we're aligning to averages here, -3% in first 2 days of the month. Bogleheads: Stocknobb's post is a reminder of how dangerous it is (especiall...
by stocknoob4111
Wed Oct 02, 2019 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12296
Views: 2101008

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

also Small Caps are having their worst performance in 30 years outside of a recessionary period.. and the strangest thing is that Small Caps have had a zero percent real return since Jan 2018 which would be impossible if there was actually a "bull market". I looked at drawdowns and recoveries of Sma...
by stocknoob4111
Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 264
Views: 28915

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I may be mistaken but I think this is the worst 20 month (Jan '18 - Aug '19) performance for Small Caps in recorded history outside of a recessionary period. The S&P 600 has had the worst returns ever looking at the historical record since 1994, only 01 and 08 were worse which were both severe reces...
by stocknoob4111
Sat Sep 28, 2019 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much cash do you keep in your HSA?
Replies: 63
Views: 4492

Re: How much cash do you keep in your HSA?

I' I'm required to keep $500 minimum
by stocknoob4111
Fri Sep 27, 2019 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 264
Views: 28915

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

A good discussion on Consuelo Mack with Chuck Royce of Royce Funds (Small Caps specialists):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRQvPODtZKs
by stocknoob4111
Fri Sep 27, 2019 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds returns are on par with Stocks?
Replies: 98
Views: 5611

Bonds returns are on par with Stocks?

This is interesting... Marketwatch reports some research that says over the very long term (30+ years) return on Bonds are the same as Stocks! https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-explosive-discovery-about-stock-and-bond-returns-will-shake-your-views-on-investing-2019-09-27?mod=mw_theo_homepage An...
by stocknoob4111
Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12296
Views: 2101008

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

breaking new - US considering blocking investments in China.. this can't be good for the markets, will know next week if there is a huge sell off based on this news
by stocknoob4111
Wed Sep 25, 2019 1:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IT compensation comparison
Replies: 256
Views: 20726

Re: IT compensation comparison

Software Engineer salaries vary wildly, for the exact same job, experience and ability one company may pay someone $200k TC and the other may offer only $100k. If you search Indeed.com there are a ton of job postings in Southern California offering salaries as low as $75k but they want 10+ years exp...
by stocknoob4111
Wed Sep 25, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?
Replies: 297
Views: 25812

Re: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?

good paper from Schwab about International valuations and expected returns:

Valuations hold a surprising message for stock market investors:

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/ ... -investors
by stocknoob4111
Mon Sep 23, 2019 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?
Replies: 297
Views: 25812

Re: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?

If I were him, I wouldn't have republished that article from 20 years ago. Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv., which he recommended then, has averaged 4.58% since inception 23 years ago. Not impressed. True, but the US has performed miserably as well, take 2000-2013 where returns were ZERO real f...
by stocknoob4111
Mon Sep 23, 2019 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?
Replies: 297
Views: 25812

Re: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?

I've been reading Jason Zweig's excellent article: https://jasonzweig.com/invest-globally-still/

For now and the long term, I am staying put - keeping my 20% International allocation.
by stocknoob4111
Mon Sep 23, 2019 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12296
Views: 2101008

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

The problem with one's portfolio growing is that your contributions now mean less and less and most of the movement is dictated by the market. This can have a feeling that you're now losing control and are at whims of the market IF one loses sight of the long term picture. This can be especially unn...
by stocknoob4111
Sat Sep 21, 2019 5:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?
Replies: 297
Views: 25812

Re: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?

It’s much better to look dispassionately at ALL the evidence, not just the pieces that suit whatever preconceived notions one might have. Otherwise you end up twisting the facts to support your biases. Which is why I would really like to see rolling 30 year periods and see a case where in a particu...
by stocknoob4111
Sat Sep 21, 2019 5:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?
Replies: 297
Views: 25812

Re: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?

The performance in aggregate is what matters, not just number of decades of outperformance... last 30 years in aggregate holding International has lowered Portfolio performance substantially, that isn't conjecture, it's historical fact. When the US has outperformed, it has outperformed by a huge mar...
by stocknoob4111
Sat Sep 21, 2019 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Effect of Corporate Debt on the markets
Replies: 2
Views: 225

Effect of Corporate Debt on the markets

I was watching a very alarming video by Danielle DiMartino Booth (ex Dallas Fed advisor) and she was talking about how companies now have staggering levels of leverage which will seriously amplify the next downturn: (long watch) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FEPOQHm_7Jo Any comments on how worried...
by stocknoob4111
Fri Sep 20, 2019 12:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?
Replies: 297
Views: 25812

Re: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?

Is this cherry picking a starting point? What does this tell us? Don’t invest in international? I think it’s best to diversify outside US because you don’t know what the next 30 years will be like. It is cherry picking no doubt... but the only way to make sense of it is to compare the same sets of ...
by stocknoob4111
Fri Sep 20, 2019 1:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?
Replies: 297
Views: 25812

Re: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?

If you had put $200,000 in the US stock market in 1990 and the same in International... and not added another cent. You would've had over $3 million in the US vs $600,000 in Intl. That is a staggeringly huge difference! The return over a 30 year period was 1.3% real but volatility was much higher th...
by stocknoob4111
Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12296
Views: 2101008

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Hmm. Are you mostly stocks? This is my taxable portfolio and contributions: https://tinyurl.com/y4dq8fdm Shows the MWRR is around 2% even... Actually VG shows it at 2.2% since Jan 2018 and consistent with PV. The 1 Year rate of return was 1.1%. Even so, 2% is dismal, mostly due to this particular a...
by stocknoob4111
Wed Sep 18, 2019 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Bond Yields?
Replies: 30
Views: 3210

Re: Negative Bond Yields?

Powell just clarified that Negative Yields are NOT in the future of US policy... so there you go! I really do not know how this would affect International equities vs US equities. I assume this will put even more pressure on US long yields as more foreign capital comes into US bonds which has been h...
by stocknoob4111
Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12296
Views: 2101008

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

My contributions from May til now have only now gotten to even or close to it. Probably yet another reason why DCA loses 2/3 of the time. I realized that Vanguard gives the returns only as of August 31, the market is up quite a bit since then so i'm curious to see how we end this month. In addition...
by stocknoob4111
Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12296
Views: 2101008

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Lee_WSP wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:17 pm
Have you been adding to it since then?
yeah, I contribute monthly.. my annual contributions to this account amounted to 10% or so of the account value when I started, now around 8%
by stocknoob4111
Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12296
Views: 2101008

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

My Vanguard taxable account shows portfolio performance Jan 2018 to date as 1.1%. Where is my 7% return??? LOL!
by stocknoob4111
Fri Sep 13, 2019 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1547
Views: 160028

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

305pelusa wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 5:39 pm
I think because it went ex-dividend today.
aah! did not realize that. Thanks!
by stocknoob4111
Fri Sep 13, 2019 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1547
Views: 160028

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Any idea why VTSAX (Vanguard Total Market) fell 0.5% today while the S&P 500 fell only 0.07% and checking most of the mid caps funds were down 0.3% or so, small caps were slightly up. I was thinking an aggregate of all those asset classes would result in almost a flat outcome. Bonds were the only th...
by stocknoob4111
Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Too Late To Get Back Into Stocks?
Replies: 115
Views: 9429

Re: Too Late To Get Back Into Stocks?

“October is a bad month”. Recent October gains: 2017 2.2%+ 2015 8.3%+ LOL! September was supposed to be particularly nasty, at least according to what I read in the media... but the markets seem to be going in the opposite direction of what the media predicted! Well, we still have 2+ weeks left so ...
by stocknoob4111
Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not market timing is hard
Replies: 29
Views: 2686

Re: Not market timing is hard

Valuations are VASTLY different now than the late 1990's and returns since that period are pretty benign. I will say though that if a 5% move here and there keeps you from cashing out, then maybe it is a worthy compromise. Looking at historical P/Es for the S&P 500 I see P/Es were elevated for many...
by stocknoob4111
Tue Sep 10, 2019 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 264
Views: 28915

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

This may be the shift where Small Caps catch up...

https://youtu.be/nFI4Ms3ZLCU
by stocknoob4111
Mon Sep 09, 2019 1:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?
Replies: 149
Views: 11506

Re: Wade Pfau: Does The 4% Rule Work In Today’s Markets?

Bond yields are low but we also have extremely low inflation as well.. I don't see that adjustment in this article. Inflation in the 70s, 80s was triple or more what it is today and the 4% rule has been back tested against that so this study is flawed.
by stocknoob4111
Sun Sep 08, 2019 2:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax settlement: how to file claim?
Replies: 149
Views: 13435

Re: Equifax settlement: how to file claim?

I got the same email saying that I need to prove I have monitoring.. just going to ignore it. I don't want any of Equifax's lousy services.. no thanks. My reports are all frozen anyway.. I don't use credit very much.
by stocknoob4111
Fri Sep 06, 2019 9:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?
Replies: 297
Views: 25812

Re: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?

There are others. For example, Chris Hyzy ... Thanks for the link, i'll read it when I get a chance. More viewpoints on this definitely helps. I must admit this has been really confusing for me, whether to contribute more or hold off, I already have a six figure position in VTIAX (Total Internation...
by stocknoob4111
Fri Sep 06, 2019 4:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?
Replies: 297
Views: 25812

Re: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?

@rascott, i'm with you here, I don't get it. But people way smarter than you or I know something that we don't perhaps? The folks at Fidelity, Schwab, American Funds, Vanguard - virtually ALL of them are saying that at least in the next decade International will beat. And their target date allocatio...
by stocknoob4111
Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?
Replies: 297
Views: 25812

Re: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?

Not sure if this was posted already but it's a good read from American Funds on International: https://www.thecapitalideas.com/articles/outlook/international-outlook "International markets generally have a greater concentration of value-oriented stocks in “old economy” sectors, such as financials an...
by stocknoob4111
Wed Sep 04, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond yield inversion - VBILX
Replies: 11
Views: 831

Re: Bond yield inversion - VBILX

well, my concern was declining yield. At the moment I am holding but how low are you willing to go? What if the yield drops below 1%, then you are losing money in real terms... how long are you willing to wait in that situation? Which could be years. I think the NAV increase is irrelevant as NAV for...