Search found 3559 matches

by ObliviousInvestor
Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 103
Views: 8951

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

So a portfolio with 53.5% VOO would make an early claim more beneficial if we can project the last decade's returns over the remaining life of the retiree. No, it would not, even if we project those returns over their remaining life. We are not concerned with the weighted-average return of the port...
by ObliviousInvestor
Sun Nov 10, 2019 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 103
Views: 8951

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

Imagine a person who: 1) Has a portfolio that is 60% stocks, 40% TIPS, and 2) Is currently planning on taking Social Security at their FRA. And let's also grant without argument, for the sake of making this point, that stocks have an expected real return of 7%... This will not get you the real comb...
by ObliviousInvestor
Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 103
Views: 8951

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

I do want to point out that for the purposes of this discussion, a 100% stock allocation is not necessary to make early claiming beneficial. All that is necessary is that the SS payments are accumulated in a portfolio (or sub-portfolio) where the real combined average return is greater than 7%. Thi...
by ObliviousInvestor
Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 103
Views: 8951

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

Sure. That's somewhat uncommon though, because it implies that you're already 100% stocks in the portfolio. (This is what Grabiner was getting at above.) I read Grabiner's comments. While he has certainly made a reasonable assertion that 100% stocks is unusual, I think it falls short of a proof of ...
by ObliviousInvestor
Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 103
Views: 8951

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

...If your overall financial picture is already appropriate for your risk level, then the appropriate rate of return to use for NPV analysis or breakeven analysis is the rate of return from something roughly as risky as Social Security. While that sounds about right, that little word "if" is crucia...
by ObliviousInvestor
Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Question for my Wife
Replies: 8
Views: 642

Re: Social Security Question for my Wife

Another Question: Ok.....if she does start to collect benefits starting May 1, 2020 and her income has already exceeded the $18,240.00, so she would then get approximately 1/2 of her benefits? Her annual benefits are ~$16,000.00/yr gross. So does SS deduct against her benefits? How is this calculat...
by ObliviousInvestor
Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Question for my Wife
Replies: 8
Views: 642

Re: Social Security Question for my Wife

The earnings test prior to reaching FRA is your annual earnings not the date when you start taking SS early in that year. Her earnings starting in January will count towards the earnings limit test. This is correct. A likely-relevant rule here though is the "grace year rule" which states that the e...
by ObliviousInvestor
Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 103
Views: 8951

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

Few 62-year-olds have 100% of their investments in stock. If you hold any bonds, then you can increase your expected returns by selling bonds to buy stock, but you chose not to do this because the risk isn't worth taking. And by the same logic, you can increase your expected returns by taking risk-...
by ObliviousInvestor
Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns
Replies: 103
Views: 8951

Re: Wait for Social Security - breakeven returns

An often overlooked aspect of when to take SS is the line that appears on your SS statement: Total family benefits cannot be more than.... I'm retiring at 64.8 years. My FRA is 66 and 10 months. But since my spouse is already taking SS, if I take it now we are already exceeding the total by a few h...
by ObliviousInvestor
Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 IRS Limits Announced for 401(k)'s etc.
Replies: 27
Views: 3783

Re: IRS announces 2020 retirement plan contribution limit increases

I don't see any mentioned of the total qualified plan contribution limit? Did I miss it? If not, does that mean it did not increase or that the IRS just foolishly left it out of the Notice? Does it come out in a separate employer notice? It's in there. The limitation for defined contribution plans ...
by ObliviousInvestor
Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Women wearing black to a wedding?
Replies: 56
Views: 4359

Re: Women wearing black to a wedding?

If it's regional, it's not specific to the east coast. Here in the Midwest, for the various weddings I've attended over the last 10 years, black has undoubtedly been the most common color for women to wear.
by ObliviousInvestor
Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: OpenSocialSecurity.com
Replies: 7
Views: 1438

Re: OpenSocialSecurity.com

Ages I assume are critical, sounds like the OP turned 65 in 2019, so just missed the restricted appl opportunity that would apply for those 65 before 2-Jan-2019. But maybe the spouse was 65 before 2019, so would qualify? Yes, month/year of birth is a critical input. In this case though restricted a...
by ObliviousInvestor
Sun Oct 20, 2019 4:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: OpenSocialSecurity.com
Replies: 7
Views: 1438

Re: OpenSocialSecurity.com

Retired CPA, I'd be happy to look into it to see if I can provide further explanation, but I'd need to know all of the inputs used so that I can recreate the calculation.
by ObliviousInvestor
Thu Oct 10, 2019 8:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is Alicia Munnell Wrong About Spousal Social Security Benefits
Replies: 19
Views: 1816

Re: Is Alicia Munnell Wrong About Spousal Social Security Benefits

A key quote from the interview. In terms of gender or marital status, we find that actually married couples (where both are working) and who tend to be richer overall than single people, actually are the least well prepared. And that's really for a couple of reasons (including) they no longer get t...
by ObliviousInvestor
Thu Oct 10, 2019 8:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is Alicia Munnell Wrong About Spousal Social Security Benefits
Replies: 19
Views: 1816

Re: Is Alicia Munnell Wrong About Spousal Social Security Benefits

I thought that SSA did change it s that you get spousal amount or your own, whichever is more, if you were born after 1954. I got in right before the bell... :beer Yes, the rules did change -- and the changes did involve spousal benefits. (See this thread for a thorough discussion from the time, ex...
by ObliviousInvestor
Thu Oct 10, 2019 8:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is Alicia Munnell Wrong About Spousal Social Security Benefits
Replies: 19
Views: 1816

Re: Is Alicia Munnell Wrong About Spousal Social Security Benefits

Rick Ferri wrote:
Thu Oct 10, 2019 7:57 am
Lots of things are covered, and that makes it weird.
This is a good summary of so much about Social Security.
by ObliviousInvestor
Thu Oct 10, 2019 7:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is Alicia Munnell Wrong About Spousal Social Security Benefits
Replies: 19
Views: 1816

Re: Is Alicia Munnell Wrong About Spousal Social Security Benefits

If the spousal benefit has been eliminated, that's news to me. The spousal benefit has not been eliminated. I'm sure she didn't actually say that it has. Indeed, she did not. Her point was that, if you have a two-spouse, two-earner household, then relative to a two-spouse, one-earner household, the...
by ObliviousInvestor
Sat Oct 05, 2019 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Spouse on SSDI - Spousal VS Survivor Benefit Issue
Replies: 9
Views: 681

Re: Spouse on SSDI - Spousal VS Survivor Benefit Issue

If you want to calculate a breakeven (ignoring time value of money), by which you mean the age to which you would have to live, if we take your husband's age at death as a given (i.e., as an input)... Then 1) Calculate the spousal benefit you would receive prior to his passing away. 2) Calculate the...
by ObliviousInvestor
Sat Oct 05, 2019 12:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Spouse on SSDI - Spousal VS Survivor Benefit Issue
Replies: 9
Views: 681

Re: Spouse on SSDI - Spousal VS Survivor Benefit Issue

If you are 62.5 now (born 1957), your survivor FRA is 66 and 2 months -- about 44 months away. ObliviousInvestor was the 66 and 2 months a typo and should have been 66 and 6 months for someone born in 1957? Not a typo. Please see the link in the part you quoted. Survivor FRA is not necessarily the ...
by ObliviousInvestor
Fri Oct 04, 2019 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SS Question -- Timing of PIA Calculation
Replies: 19
Views: 1018

Re: SS Question -- Timing of PIA Calculation

Yes, that's correct. Retroactive application, with the additional lump sum being included in the next check/deposit after it gets processed.
by ObliviousInvestor
Fri Oct 04, 2019 11:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SS Question -- Timing of PIA Calculation
Replies: 19
Views: 1018

Re: SS Question -- Timing of PIA Calculation

Suppose someone is past FRA and working full-time in 2018 while collecting SS. Their wages for 2018 are sufficient to replace one of their top 35 years of SS earnings. Sometime during 2019 SS will become aware of this and update the top 35 years of earnings, resulting in an increased PIA and thus a...
by ObliviousInvestor
Fri Oct 04, 2019 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Spouse on SSDI - Spousal VS Survivor Benefit Issue
Replies: 9
Views: 681

Re: Spouse on SSDI - Spousal VS Survivor Benefit Issue

Thanks very much to each of you for your responses - they were insightful and greatly appreciated. I did not think this was an "optimization issue" that could be quantified by an online tool. I had come across www.opensocialsecurity.com from reading Boglehead treads on social security optimization ...
by ObliviousInvestor
Fri Oct 04, 2019 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SS Question -- Timing of PIA Calculation
Replies: 19
Views: 1018

Re: SS Question -- Timing of PIA Calculation

Everyone's input has been very helpful in our making our decision. As I understand it, my wife's benefit and my spousal benefit will not be "set in stone" based on her PIA as it appears in her SSA My Account summary but will be updated to reflect earnings for 2019. Would it get updated constantly i...
by ObliviousInvestor
Fri Oct 04, 2019 7:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SS Question -- Timing of PIA Calculation
Replies: 19
Views: 1018

Re: SS Question -- Timing of PIA Calculation

Also just adding: as far as the actual timing, I've never been able to find any official documentation about when Automatic Earnings Reappraisal Operation (AERO) actually occurs. But I've heard from several people that theirs has been processed in October, which would make sense as a time to do a ba...
by ObliviousInvestor
Fri Oct 04, 2019 7:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SS Question -- Timing of PIA Calculation
Replies: 19
Views: 1018

Re: SS Question -- Timing of PIA Calculation

Welcome, Former BH Lurker. As One Ping noted above, when your spouse's PIA is updated to include the new earnings, your benefit as a spouse would be updated as well. Filing earlier (i.e., prior to the point at which your wife's earnings record reflects her new earnings) would not cause you to miss o...
by ObliviousInvestor
Fri Oct 04, 2019 6:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Spouse on SSDI - Spousal VS Survivor Benefit Issue
Replies: 9
Views: 681

Re: Spouse on SSDI - Spousal VS Survivor Benefit Issue

Welcome to the forum. sscritic emailed me to point out this thread and to point out one possible point of note. https://www.ssa.gov/OP_Home/cfr20/404/404-0335.htm § 404.335. How do I become entitled to widow's or widower's benefits? ... (b) You apply, except that you need not apply again if you meet...
by ObliviousInvestor
Wed Oct 02, 2019 6:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Calculating Spousal Benefit - Detailed Calculation
Replies: 14
Views: 1616

Re: Calculating Spousal Benefit - Detailed Calculation

One final point, Silk McCue said: "From past threads, you won’t find many folks here claiming SS early for both spouses". And yes that is true because too many follow the standard guidance provided by calculators like "OpenSocialSecurity" which assume that you will spend all the social security ben...
by ObliviousInvestor
Tue Oct 01, 2019 12:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Calculating Spousal Benefit - Detailed Calculation
Replies: 14
Views: 1616

Re: Calculating Spousal Benefit - Detailed Calculation

You only ever have one PIA. That PIA goes up each year that there is a COLA (beginning at 62). In other words, once a COLA has been applied, your old PIA is no longer your PIA. Your new COLA'd PIA is your PIA. Person B's spousal benefit is calculated as: [50% of Person A's PIA, minus the greater of ...
by ObliviousInvestor
Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Benefits Strategy
Replies: 35
Views: 3952

Re: Social Security Benefits Strategy

So I guess the decision on the lesser earning spouse who is much younger deciding on getting spousal support asap at 62 vs waiting until 67 FRA should be based on how long they expect the older spouse to live after 70. The decision for the lower earner should be based on the joint first-to-die life...
by ObliviousInvestor
Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Benefits Strategy
Replies: 35
Views: 3952

Re: Social Security Benefits Strategy

Okay, I had another question. Let's say that a husband and wife are 8 years apart. If the husband files at 70, and the wife is 62 and files early for spousal benefit at the same time, is her portion only docked the 30% early filing penalty, or is it subject to the income limits as well? Like how fo...
by ObliviousInvestor
Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Benefits Strategy
Replies: 35
Views: 3952

Re: Social Security Benefits Strategy

Okay, I had another question. Let's say that a husband and wife are 8 years apart. If the husband files at 70, and the wife is 62 and files early for spousal benefit at the same time, is her portion only docked the 30% early filing penalty, or is it subject to the income limits as well? Like how fo...
by ObliviousInvestor
Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Benefits Strategy
Replies: 35
Views: 3952

Re: Social Security Benefits Strategy

I think the law has change so the lower earning spouse can no longer file early for theirs and then get spousal benefits later. I believe if she files at 62 for her own, then the spousal beneift is filed at the same time and she can only get the larger of the two. This is true if the lower earning ...
by ObliviousInvestor
Fri Sep 06, 2019 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security question
Replies: 1
Views: 464

Re: Social Security question

Statsguy, I am very sorry to hear about your diagnosis. I recently posted a summary of how survivor benefits work in another thread. I'll repost it here. If we assume that the surviving spouse is the lower earner (i.e., has the lower PIA) and that the surviving spouse files for survivor benefits aft...
by ObliviousInvestor
Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security age 70 or bust?
Replies: 81
Views: 4968

Re: Social Security age 70 or bust?

Brief summary of survivor benefit calculations, in case it's helpful: If we assume that the surviving spouse is the lower earner (i.e., has the lower PIA) and that the surviving spouse files for survivor benefits after their survivor FRA... 1) If the higher earner dies after having filed for his/he...
by ObliviousInvestor
Thu Aug 01, 2019 4:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Open Social Security" calculator: feature requests, bug reports, etc
Replies: 336
Views: 38800

Re: "Open Social Security" calculator: feature requests, bug reports, etc

Hi Mike, Your calculator tells us to file in Nov'19 for spousal for my wife. She will be 66 in Nov. And I should file(I'm 68 1/2) for my SS in Nov also so she can collect spousal according to your calculator. My question is: I filed on the phone today with SS to start my benefit in Nov. My wife fil...
by ObliviousInvestor
Thu Aug 01, 2019 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Open Social Security" calculator: feature requests, bug reports, etc
Replies: 336
Views: 38800

Re: "Open Social Security" calculator: feature requests, bug reports, etc

Carl53, would you perhaps be able to email me the details? (The easiest way is likely to "print" the page and save it as a pdf attachment.)

mike@obliviousinvestor.com
by ObliviousInvestor
Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Spousal benefits and SSA
Replies: 6
Views: 693

Re: Spousal benefits and SSA

Welcome to the forum, Snig7131. Yes, in the absence of other factors, your benefit as her spouse should be half of her PIA (i.e., more than half of what she is currently receiving, since she's getting less than her PIA). As mentioned above, it could be Medicare premium being taken out of your benefi...
by ObliviousInvestor
Mon Jul 29, 2019 6:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to take Social Security, SSAnalyze, and the TVM?
Replies: 24
Views: 3870

Re: When to take Social Security, SSAnalyze, and the TVM?

Bongleur wrote:
Sun Jul 28, 2019 3:39 am
??? SSAnalyze ???
Is this something that can be distributed via DropBox etc?
I am not sure I understand what you are asking. I am familiar with DropBox, but am unsure of what an applicable usage would be here.
by ObliviousInvestor
Mon Jul 29, 2019 6:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to take Social Security, SSAnalyze, and the TVM?
Replies: 24
Views: 3870

Re: When to take Social Security, SSAnalyze, and the TVM?

That is a wonderful open source calculator. Here's what I can't figure out. What if spouse takes SS at 62 and gets $1,956 a month but doesn't need the money and invests every dime of it into an index and bond fund and lets it ride. That's $23,472 invested for 4 1/2 years. $105,624 plus whatever it ...
by ObliviousInvestor
Tue Jul 23, 2019 8:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Open Social Security" calculator: feature requests, bug reports, etc
Replies: 336
Views: 38800

Re: "Open Social Security" calculator: feature requests, bug reports, etc

dollarsaver, the calculator follows the convention of discussing months for which a benefit is received rather than months in which the benefit is received. I took this approach in the interest of making the output easier to understand given that this is how most sources (including the SSA in most c...
by ObliviousInvestor
Tue Jul 23, 2019 1:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Open Social Security" calculator: feature requests, bug reports, etc
Replies: 336
Views: 38800

Re: "Open Social Security" calculator: feature requests, bug reports, etc

Earnings test withholding is always based on an estimate of your earnings for the year. Then, for any year that included months prior to your FRA, after the year is over and the SSA has received your W-2 from your employer (or your Schedule SE if you're self-employed) -- and they therefore know what...
by ObliviousInvestor
Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Open Social Security" calculator: feature requests, bug reports, etc
Replies: 336
Views: 38800

Re: "Open Social Security" calculator: feature requests, bug reports, etc

Lots going on with this one. The family maximum based on your primary insurance amount is $3,955.40. From that we subtract your PIA to get the amount left for the rest of the family: $1,695.40. (Hence the $847 figure per anyPIA.) The calculator is using the 2019 earnings test threshold ($46,920) for...
by ObliviousInvestor
Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Open Social Security" calculator: feature requests, bug reports, etc
Replies: 336
Views: 38800

Re: "Open Social Security" calculator: feature requests, bug reports, etc

I have planned to file for Social Security benefits in December 2019, one year before my full retirement age. This is to provide benefits for my 12-year-old daughter and my wife who is the primary caregiver. I also plan to continue to work full-time in 2020. When I run the Open Social Security calc...
by ObliviousInvestor
Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Open Social Security" calculator: feature requests, bug reports, etc
Replies: 336
Views: 38800

Re: "Open Social Security" calculator: feature requests, bug reports, etc

Helot, the calculator is showing that for 2033 you would receive 2 months of retirement benefits (Nov, Dec), and for 2034 you would receive 12 months of retirement benefits.

Edit: Nice job Silk McCue. :)
by ObliviousInvestor
Fri Jul 12, 2019 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Filing Restricted SS Application - Language Check
Replies: 52
Views: 6274

Re: Filing Restricted SS Application - Language Check

I maintain my request that anyone who is willing to, please post the actual text (or scan with personal information blacked out) of the restricted application Notice of Award letter that you received. I believe folks would find it informative and helpful. The very few examples/excerpts I've seen ha...
by ObliviousInvestor
Fri Jul 12, 2019 8:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Filing Restricted SS Application - Language Check
Replies: 52
Views: 6274

Re: Filing Restricted SS Application - Language Check

To everyone on this restricted application thread - thanks so much for the input. Here's my request, would anyone who has received a Notice of Award (the actual letter, not a confirmation notice) in the mail from Social Security for their restricted application please post the exact text of the let...
by ObliviousInvestor
Fri Jul 12, 2019 6:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can Spousal SS Benefit EVER be greater that 50% of Spouses PIA??
Replies: 18
Views: 1627

Re: Can Spousal SS Benefit EVER be greater that 50% of Spouses PIA??

Here's a reminder summary in case it's helpful. Deemed filing rules: Note that these are the rules for a combination of retirement/spousal benefits. Deemed filing does not apply to survivor/retirement benefit combinations. (That is, a filing for retirement benefits will never cause a deemed filing f...
by ObliviousInvestor
Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: St. Louis Travel/Tourism
Replies: 20
Views: 1370

Re: St. Louis Travel/Tourism

As another native St Louis resident, the Botanical Garden is my favorite thing in the metro area by a wide margin. We live (roughly) down the street and stop in regularly. Great place to go, rain or shine, hot weather or cold. The Japanese Garden on a rainy day is a delight.
by ObliviousInvestor
Sat Jun 22, 2019 5:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Complex Social Security Question (GPO and WEP)
Replies: 11
Views: 1285

Re: Complex Social Security Question (GPO and WEP)

a). That my wife would lose 2/3 of her spousal social security benefits when she draws a non-covered pension from TRS. I specifically asked this question from several approaches and got the same answer. According to this benefits advisor, it doesn't matter how much her non-covered pension is in amo...
by ObliviousInvestor
Sun Jun 09, 2019 7:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Calculating future Social Security benefits: How do I adjust the discount rate?]
Replies: 44
Views: 3126

Re: [Calculating future Social Security benefits: How do I adjust the discount rate?]

Point being, when deciding whether to add the new fund, you consider the most advantageous way of doing so. And that is the basis on which you judge whether or not the fund merits inclusion. (Sort of a "highest and best use" line of thinking.) [...] I think you're making two points: a) the existenc...