Search found 454 matches
- Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:29 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Gamestop and AMC as percentage of market
- Replies: 15
- Views: 1994
Re: Gamestop and AMC as percentage of market
If they were so small and its just noise why did the broad market go down at least 5% in the last week and rebound after the shenanigans have cooled? Each day that GME went up the market tumbled and the inverse happened as well. If it wasn't because of GME it was a huge coincidence. GME is just noi...
- Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:59 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: House AC blowing too cold/hard?
- Replies: 10
- Views: 1176
Re: House AC blowing too cold/hard?
Open all (or more) of your vents everywhere in the house. This way the main coil will get more flow, the supply temperature will go up, and the vents that were already open will receive less flow individually. If most of your vents are already open, then there may not be a lot you can do and your sy...
- Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:25 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: 100 percent stock investors: any of you adding bonds now?
- Replies: 51
- Views: 3746
Re: 100 percent stock investors: any of you adding bonds now?
Nope. No changes whatsoever here.
- Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:28 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Whole House Humidifier Question
- Replies: 14
- Views: 1151
Re: Whole House Humidifier Question
The new versions of the Aprilaire humidifiers will work in fan only mode. In fact they can kick on the fan to sample the air if you don’t have the fan continuously on. The main change here is just the humidistat and how the power is wired. The color of the humidifier is an indicator as to your versi...
- Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:01 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: [Paul Merriman: This strategy beats a total stock market fund]
- Replies: 173
- Views: 17082
Re: Paul Merriman article
To echo others: I think you are reading into nothing here. Read blend wherever it says growth. I recall some of his old material explaining his strategy simply like this: “half large, half small, half value, half growth”, but when you actually construct the thing he uses blend instead of growth. Als...
- Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:07 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: What sort of fund for saving for sabbatical?
- Replies: 11
- Views: 1199
Re: What sort of fund for saving for sabbatical?
Sounds like it’s still pretty short term, in which case you probably shouldn’t push it too far beyond a cash equivalent. However, maybe something like 50% Cash/Savings/money market (VMMXX) 50% Short Term Investment Grade (VFSTX) ...may be a good acceptable approach with decent upside potential and m...
- Sun Mar 25, 2018 8:59 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Rebalancing is profitable?
- Replies: 29
- Views: 5335
Re: Rebalancing is profitable?
William Bernstein analyzed this, and he demonstrates that the return of a regularly rebalanced portfolio is usually in excess of the weighted average return of the assets, which would mean the rebalancing bonus is real: http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/996/rebal.htm However, the effect is probabl...
- Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:18 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: S&P 500 -- Ten Years Thoughts?
- Replies: 45
- Views: 6749
Re: S&P 500 -- Ten Years Thoughts?
Anytime you are comparing a peak (~1999) to a trough (~2009) the returns will look worse than the norm. Similarly, if you compare a trough (~2009) to a peak (maybe today?) they will look better than the norm. Ideally, you should be looking at even longer term and not cherrypick the dates to paint a ...
- Wed Jul 12, 2017 4:29 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Cutting the Cord: Who's Best?
- Replies: 51
- Views: 8193
Re: Cutting the Cord: Who's Best?
The nice thing about these services is you aren't locked in (ok maybe locked in for a month!). The a la carte model isn't truly available except for premium channels (hbo, etc.) and packages of channels (sports package, etc.). I would just list out the channels you want and buy the service that is c...
- Sat Apr 08, 2017 7:11 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: How to do AA based on Age, Risk, HUMAN Capital ?
- Replies: 3
- Views: 498
Re: How to do AA based on Age, Risk, HUMAN Capital ?
Take a look at a post I made years ago: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=109504 It didn't get much attention but I think it directly answers your question. Specifically look at the discount rate to capture bond like vs stock like jobs. I actually have a simplified approach I use toda...
- Sat Jul 16, 2016 10:55 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: 4% SWR for 30 years, what % for 15 years
- Replies: 12
- Views: 2310
Re: 4% SWR for 30 years, what % for 15 years
Below 25 years, I suggest just assuming 1/n for the rule. So for 15 years you get 6.67%.
- Thu Jun 30, 2016 6:16 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Wait, holding international increases risk?
- Replies: 67
- Views: 6491
Re: Wait, holding international increases risk?
I would argue a better approach would be to find the us/international mix that maximizes return per unit risk (via a sharpe or sortino ratio) as opposed to minimizing risk. Then you can add bonds to the stock mix in an amount that brings the portfolio's risk to your desired level.
- Fri Sep 25, 2015 12:58 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Who Believes in International Bonds and Why
- Replies: 44
- Views: 4614
Re: Who Believes in International Bonds and Why
Consider that bond returns can roughly be explained by two risk factors: term risk and default risk. This can give you insight as to whether or not you should be holding international bonds. For somebody that is only interested in exposing themselves to term risk, or near zero default risk, you woul...
- Sun Sep 20, 2015 3:16 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Why not use Global Market Cap %'s for Equities?
- Replies: 64
- Views: 5509
Re: Why not use Global Market Cap %'s for Equities?
Using concepts from modern portfolio theory, you can calculate the expected optimal international holding percentage you should use for a two asset portfolio (three including risk free asset). You need to assume various values for for US and ex-US assets. For example, using the following for real ex...
- Thu Jun 18, 2015 7:00 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: LastPass.com Breach
- Replies: 155
- Views: 38407
Re: LastPass.com Breach
Is there any conclusion that can be sought from all of this discussion? The conclusion is the same as the premise: if you have a strong master password there is very little risk. I have been a lastpass user for years and events like this just remind me why I chose the service: because it was built ...
- Sun Jun 14, 2015 11:49 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Where do you keep your to do list?
- Replies: 60
- Views: 11749
Re: Where do you keep your to do list?
Use onenote if you are already using it. Otherwise, wunderlist or todoist would probably be perfect for your needs. Maybe try wunderlist first. Heck actually wunderlist is owned by Microsoft now so expect some future integration with some of their other products.
- Sun Apr 12, 2015 4:35 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Invest now or wait??
- Replies: 22
- Views: 3614
Re: Invest now or wait??
Since the consensus is that the bull is ending and a bear is right around the corner, why don't you just short the market?!? Just kidding, please don't do that. If the thought of investing 250k mostly in stocks doesn't sit well with you, maybe you should dial back on your portfolios risk level, mayb...
- Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:00 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Are car loans really that bad?
- Replies: 86
- Views: 19244
Re: Are car loans really that bad?
I think the main reason I would avoid a car loan is for financial simplicity and to make sure I don't fall into the trap of buying more car than I would otherwise buy had I been forced to pay in cash. Purely financially, I think it probably makes sense to get a loan at sub 2% rates for most investor...
- Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:02 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Chaos, complexity and entropy [for non-physicists]
- Replies: 113
- Views: 12764
Re: Chaos, complexity and entropy [for non-physicists]
One fun thing about entropy in an isolated system is that it tends to increase, but it doesn't have to. Thanks to the law of large numbers, it will effectively only increase or stay constant. Basically, what i'm saying is that all the particles in the room you are in could spontaneously go to the ot...
- Sat Jan 10, 2015 10:33 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Purchasing a car with credit cards for cash back rewards?
- Replies: 36
- Views: 5526
Re: Purchasing a car with credit cards for cash back rewards
When we recently bought a car the dealer limit was $3000. However we also were able to put another $3000 on the card for the warranty (which we later canceled and got a check back in the mail), and finally we were able to put a another $500 deposit down on the card to put the car on hold/reserve (th...
- Sat Oct 18, 2014 8:16 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Why do people use age instead of life expectancy?
- Replies: 43
- Views: 4576
Re: Why do people use age instead of life expectancy?
Probably because age has a significant negative correlation with life expectancy, just a guess 

- Wed Oct 08, 2014 12:45 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?
- Replies: 52
- Views: 7536
Re: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?
The 10 largest holdings are conglomerates that are the equivalent of many smaller businesses. They should have MUCH more weighting than your local pizza place down the street. The top five holdings in VTSMX are Symbol % Assets YTD Return % AAPL 2.78 25.47 XOM 1.92 -6.25 MSFT 1.52 24.94 JNJ 1.32 16....
- Wed Oct 08, 2014 12:12 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?
- Replies: 52
- Views: 7536
Re: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?
I am someone who tilts, however I would argue that the equity style box should not be used to show you are undiversified! Do you realize that how they are defining Large/Medium/Small is largely arbitrary? Market weighting is the natural starting point, no question. And just because 75% of the compa...
- Wed Oct 08, 2014 11:43 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?
- Replies: 52
- Views: 7536
Re: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?
The three fund portfolio equity box looks something like this: ```` Value Core Growth Large`` 25 ` 25 ` 25 Medium ` 6 ` 6 ` 6 Small ``` 2 ` 2 ` 2 This has 75% large caps and is equally balanced between growth/value therefore not taking advantage of the small value premium with only 33% in value and...
- Tue Sep 30, 2014 10:54 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: should participate in employer matches?
- Replies: 20
- Views: 2230
Re: should participate in employer matches?
Unless the expense ratios of these horrible options are anywhere close to 3%, still invest up to the match.
- Mon Sep 22, 2014 10:18 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
- Replies: 51
- Views: 4328
Re: Does Equity Risk Decrease over Time?
Very little discussion of the actual content of the article here. As far as I can tell the authors did two things. First they computed the optimum percent holding in equities as a function of investor risk aversion and investment period for normally distributed stock/bond distributions defined by me...
- Sat Sep 20, 2014 11:40 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: So what the benckmark SWR for a 25 year retirement?
- Replies: 14
- Views: 1433
Re: So what the benckmark SWR for a 25 year retirement?
So if 4% is the benchmark for planning purposes for a 30 year retirement what would be the benchmark for a 25 year retirement. I mean if you start taking SS at 67 or 70 then from that point it would seem 25 is more likely than 30. I realized that in retirement a variable withdrawal rate will be the...
- Sat Sep 06, 2014 10:04 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Let me get this straight about SCV & factor diversification
- Replies: 161
- Views: 36907
Re: Let me get this straight about SCV & factor diversificat
Larry - thinking about the net result of combining TSM with SCV. Seems to me that, since TSM is loaded negatively on size and value, the addition of SCV is likely to have the effect of "neutralizing" small and value risk factors - moving the net loading toward zero. The net result is that...
- Fri Sep 05, 2014 6:08 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Let me get this straight about SCV & factor diversification
- Replies: 161
- Views: 36907
Re: Let me get this straight about SCV & factor diversificat
No - Fund 1 - b3 = 1 -> positive expected return Fund 2 - b3 = -1 bv = 1 -> positive if the value premium is real Fund 3 - b3 = -0.9 bv = -0.1 bs =1 -> positive if the small premium is real after account for Beta and value. If the premiums are real, you would be able to construct three funds that a...
- Thu Sep 04, 2014 10:27 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Let me get this straight about SCV & factor diversification
- Replies: 161
- Views: 36907
Re: Let me get this straight about SCV & factor diversificat
I'm not sure about that. What you described in your original post was how to construct three funds: 1) market fund, 2) small exposure only fund, and 3) value exposure only fund. Those three funds are not (necessarily) uncorrelated... We can define the funds as "the premium that a particular fa...
- Thu Sep 04, 2014 9:41 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Let me get this straight about SCV & factor diversification
- Replies: 161
- Views: 36907
Re: Let me get this straight about SCV & factor diversificat
I'm ok with most that you wrote, however the correlations are not zero and there is the nothing in how they are defined that would imply this. See the figure in the post by Simplegift above! You can construct them to be zero by longing or shorting the other factors. E.g. if Value is correlated nega...
- Thu Sep 04, 2014 9:32 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Let me get this straight about SCV & factor diversification
- Replies: 161
- Views: 36907
Re: Let me get this straight about SCV & factor diversificat
Most Bogleheads who own SCV funds do so in addition to TSM funds. Tilting like this gets you closer to an equal weight portfolio which would appear to be intuitively more diversified than the 2% Apple, 2% Exxon, etc purely cap weighted portfolio I've tilted since day one myself, however, it has not...
- Thu Sep 04, 2014 9:13 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Let me get this straight about SCV & factor diversification
- Replies: 161
- Views: 36907
Re: Let me get this straight about SCV & factor diversificat
At this point, we have 3 funds that don't correlate with each other at all (by definition!) and all of whom have large positive expected value. I'm ok with most that you wrote, however the correlations are not zero and there is the nothing in how they are defined that would imply this. See the figu...
- Thu Sep 04, 2014 7:16 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Why is REIT only sector fund recommended in slice & dice?
- Replies: 113
- Views: 11731
Re: Why is REIT only sector fund recommended in slice & dice
Yes, this is a great point. I would expect REITS would be the next best things after 1) Long term debt and 2) TIPS for inflation protection.Simplegift wrote:Beyond portfolio diversification, another reason for a separate, overweight allocation to REITs is increased inflation protection.
- Tue Aug 19, 2014 12:59 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Why would anyone own a treasury bond fund?
- Replies: 20
- Views: 2401
Re: Why would anyone own a treasury bond fund?
1) Because the fees are tiny even compared to the small amount of effort required. 2) Because it removes the temptation to make calls or micromanage. 3) Ask Doc . This. You are basically paying a little bit more for a bond fund for less effort managing. Paying a little bit more for convenience is w...
- Sat Aug 02, 2014 4:46 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Prove adding SV will lower the risk, given the same E(r)
- Replies: 79
- Views: 6226
Re: Prove adding SV will lower the risk, given the same E(r)
Thanks Matt. Some of those changed quite a lot using the monthly data. Modigliani is one I've not heard of before. Are you saying all those ratios are native calculations in Excel, or do you have some add-in tool pack? I'll have to look some of those stats up to see if I can figure out how to inter...
- Fri Aug 01, 2014 9:24 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Prove adding SV will lower the risk, given the same E(r)
- Replies: 79
- Views: 6226
Re: Prove adding SV will lower the risk, given the same E(r)
MrMatt, this looks potentially interesting, and I hope you don't take offense that I can't get very far in deciphering it. Would you mind going into a bit more detail, including all the abbreviations you're using? Or maybe even better if you could post the actual spreadsheet? Also wondering, are yo...
- Fri Aug 01, 2014 11:20 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Prove adding SV will lower the risk, given the same E(r)
- Replies: 79
- Views: 6226
Re: Prove adding SV will lower the risk, given the same E(r)
I just ran a bunch of numbers using the FF data from 1927-2013. Figured it might be useful for the discussion. Generally, you can see, the data shows one could have owned a mix of small and value, decreased beta, and still achieved the same expected return as the market. I computed the sharpe ratio ...
- Sun Jul 20, 2014 3:52 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Do you "Tax Adjust" your Asset Allocation (Pre vs Roth, etc)
- Replies: 77
- Views: 7164
Re: Do you "Tax Adjust" your Asset Allocation (Pre vs Roth,
Frankly, I don't buy the "don't overcomplicate" argument here. A dollar in a roth is definitely worth more than a dollar in a traditional ira/401k. I agree that you shouldn't waste hours predicting future tax rates and guessing which bracket you are going to fall into, however, almost any ...
- Sun Jul 20, 2014 3:12 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Do you "Tax Adjust" your Asset Allocation (Pre vs Roth, etc)
- Replies: 77
- Views: 7164
Re: Do you "Tax Adjust" your Asset Allocation (Pre vs Roth,
I didn't vote because you messed up the math a little bit. I would consider it 55% stocks, 45% bonds.
- Sun Jul 13, 2014 6:30 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Thoughts on 100% stock allocation for 33 year old
- Replies: 85
- Views: 15516
Re: Thoughts on 100% stock allocation for 33 year old
I personally think it is fine for most people under 40. Consider the following: Say you are planing to retire at 65 spending around $80k per year or around $2M in financial assets. Typically, in retirement, around a 50/50 stock bond mix is held. So in this retirement scenario, you would be putting $...
- Wed Jul 02, 2014 10:48 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Does my house count as my "real estate" for diversification?
- Replies: 15
- Views: 1982
Re: Does my house count as my "real estate" for diversificat
I would not count the house as "real estate" for diversification, because you aren't using it as an investment. If housing prices go up, owning your own house doesn't make you any better off, because you still live in the same house. If housing prices fall, owning your own house doesn't h...
- Wed Jul 02, 2014 10:37 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: House maintenance cost
- Replies: 13
- Views: 1910
Re: House maintenance cost
I use 1% of structure cost as an estimate. For example, you could look up on zillow what the home value is, say 300k. Then lookup the "land share" for your state, https://www.lincolninst.edu/subcenters/land-values/land-prices-by-state.asp, say 15%. Then your structure cost is equal to 300k...
- Tue Jun 24, 2014 1:49 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: An Argument for Long Term Treasury Bonds
- Replies: 62
- Views: 22534
Re: An Argument for Long Term Treasury Bonds
Also this is partially why many here prefer treasuries only for bond component of the portfolio. The issue with corporates is that the default risk (of bonds) is correlated with market risk (of stocks), so you don't get this nice behavior in times of trouble.
- Thu Jun 12, 2014 12:24 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Why is Tilting and Slice&Dice so popular in this forum?
- Replies: 110
- Views: 9428
Re: Why is Tilting and Slice&Dice so popular in this forum?
What ex-US SV fund do you use? With Fidelity I have only been able to find IV and IS, so I do 10% each. But I would prefer to just do 20% ISV. I use DLS for developed markets and DGS for emerging markets. They are technically small but they filter and weight by dividends which is an inherent value ...
- Wed Jun 11, 2014 12:26 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Do REITs (and slicing in general) reduce risk?
- Replies: 65
- Views: 5530
Re: Do REITs (and slicing in general) reduce risk?
Generally, I don't think its right to expect any random slice will reduce risk. For example, I wouldn't expect any benefit from taking the 500 companies in the SP500 and randomly separating them into two groups of 250, and then rebalancing between the two halves. However, where I do expect benefit i...
- Tue Jun 10, 2014 3:01 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Emergency Fund Alternative for Young Accumulator
- Replies: 15
- Views: 2006
Re: Emergency Fund Alternative for Young Accumulator
I would vote no. Once your taxable account is significant, a big emergency fund doesn't matter so much and only decreases long term returns. I would still keep about 3 months in cash for liquidity purposes.
- Tue Jun 10, 2014 9:32 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Why is Tilting and Slice&Dice so popular in this forum?
- Replies: 110
- Views: 9428
Re: Why is Tilting and Slice&Dice so popular in this forum?
How can you use leverage to invest more in equity? Wouldn't the interest rate on a personal loan be almost as high as the expected market returns? I guess I am leveraging to an extent because I still have student loans but I just make the min payment and max my retirement contributions. Also I don'...
- Mon Jun 09, 2014 5:57 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: investing international, why & how much
- Replies: 51
- Views: 6418
Re: investing international, why & how much
IMO the starting point should really be about 50% international, not 30%. US now less than 50% of global equity market and small home country bias is okay due to lower costs of domestic investments and bit more tax efficiency generally and for those with lots of labor capital it's likely US restric...
- Mon Jun 09, 2014 5:01 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Why is Tilting and Slice&Dice so popular in this forum?
- Replies: 110
- Views: 9428
Re: Why is Tilting and Slice&Dice so popular in this forum?
Even if you are in camp 2, can it still make sense to tilt if you have very high risk tolerance? Right, sure. I hinted at this in the first paragraph: if your only goal is to maximize expected return (or you have off the charts risk tolerance), then risk doesn't matter and you should tilt towards s...