Search found 957 matches

by DartThrower
Thu Feb 29, 2024 4:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Construction Home: Cash buyer
Replies: 8
Views: 1376

Re: New Construction Home: Cash buyer

We bought a new construction home from a well-establish production builder a little over a year ago. Our real estate agent advised that inspections were not necessary on new construction since the city is inspecting as construction proceeds and instead advised an inspection prior to the one-year warranty expiring. Needless to say or I wouldn't be writing but we should have had inspections done. The pre-end of warranty turned up a major construction error. It includes a code violation so the closing never should have occurred. Turns out the inspector trusts the builder and many of the inspections are "drive-by." ... Thanks for that cautionary tale! It's amazing how many things can possibly go wrong with new construction. I just wa...
by DartThrower
Wed Feb 28, 2024 4:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Construction Home: Cash buyer
Replies: 8
Views: 1376

Re: New Construction Home: Cash buyer

Thanks for the replies. I do plan to get an inspector. One inspector in the area advertises a package deal:

-first inspection pre-drywall
-second inspection pre-settlement
-final inspection pre-warranty expiration.

The builder is a well established builder in the area. All the inspectors in the area probably know the builder well.
Maybe 3 inspections is overkill and I'm sure it will be expensive so we'll see.

In this market I don't have high hopes that a builder will negotiate much of anything.
by DartThrower
Wed Feb 28, 2024 7:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Construction Home: Cash buyer
Replies: 8
Views: 1376

New Construction Home: Cash buyer

Hi all. We're in the market for a new home, probably new construction with all cash. In the case of buying existing homes it's possible to use an all-cash offer to gain some advantage in price negotiation. Is there a similar benefit to buyers of new construction? After talking to friends and family I get the impression that builders don't negotiate much on base price, but they might negotiate on upgrades. Demand seems generally strong today on new construction, but with high interest rates (in comparison to recent history) the builders are often buying down the rate for buyers. We would potentially be saving the builder this expense. Is it possible to leverage this in negotiations? Any other tips on buying a new construction home in this en...
by DartThrower
Thu Nov 18, 2021 6:33 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Expat and currency exchange
Replies: 19
Views: 3868

Re: Expat and currency exchange

Thanks again for the replies. I just wanted to update that we did open an account with PKO Bank Polski and they have the ability to exchange online. The current mid-market rate is 4.111 zloty per dollar as of today. PKO is offering 4.0878 per dollar. This comes to a 0.57% cost to exchange. Would this be considered competitive? Depends- is that inclusive of all fees or are there other fees (including for transfer in/out etc)? You need to compare how many spendable Zlotys (PLN) you'll have at the end of the day for a given number of USD, net of all fees. You can compare Wise and others to determine yourself if it's competitive. Wise currently shows USD 1000 > PLN 4075. (4.10355 PLN per USD, ~$7 fees.) If you're getting USD 1000 > PLN 4088, t...
by DartThrower
Thu Nov 18, 2021 5:57 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Expat and currency exchange
Replies: 19
Views: 3868

Re: Expat and currency exchange

Thanks again for the replies. I just wanted to update that we did open an account with PKO Bank Polski and they have the ability to exchange online. The current mid-market rate is 4.111 zloty per dollar as of today. PKO is offering 4.0878 per dollar. This comes to a 0.57% cost to exchange. Would this be considered competitive?
by DartThrower
Fri Oct 09, 2020 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whence inflation?
Replies: 254
Views: 28957

Re: Whence inflation?

It's easy to conflate the signaling function of prices with inflation. If prices are too high in a given city, move to a city with lower prices. If prices of McMansions are too high, move to a smaller house or even into an apartment. Prices are critical in determining resource allocation in a market based economy. This function is very easy to confuse with inflation. Another challenge is in the measurement of qualitative changes over time. Does a square ft of house space built today provide the same utility as a square ft built in 1990? What are the exact effects of depreciation? What about advances in technology? The market uses prices to attempt to figure all these things out simultaneously. Just as we need tremendous humility in claiming...
by DartThrower
Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear Cub Smells Bubble
Replies: 406
Views: 36579

Re: Bear Cub Smells Bubble

mrspock wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 12:26 am

Stick to your AA, or risk joining the ranks of folks who market timed in March and are still sitting on the sidelines.
March of 2009 or 2020? :mrgreen:
by DartThrower
Wed Aug 12, 2020 8:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What did you do when you won the game? Edited
Replies: 53
Views: 7819

Re: What did you do when you won the game? Edited

Giving top priority to family and health.
Learning my wife's native language. It helps us connect even better and keeps my mind sharp. Plus it's fun.
Keeping portfolio in a steady state. Rebalanced and Roth converted back in April, it paid off huge.
by DartThrower
Wed Jul 15, 2020 2:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Liability for Golf Ball Through Windshield
Replies: 93
Views: 9177

Re: Liability for Golf Ball Through Windshield

That's a great story. I wish there were more people like you with integrity. My brother has a home adjacent to a golf course and players routinely rummage through his backyard looking for lost balls. Some even want to play their ball FROM his backyard. :shock:
by DartThrower
Wed Jul 08, 2020 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You have a second chance to reduce your stock holdIng
Replies: 112
Views: 15096

Re: You have a second chance to reduce your stock holdIng

This brings to mind the story of Icarus who flew too close to the sun, and his wings melted, causing him to fall to the sea and drown. I have a print of Matisse's Icarus painting hanging in my apartment to remind me not to fly too high. Similar to you, I have a beautiful painting of the sirens from greek mythology. They represent to me the temptation to speculate. There have been many hundreds of threads on this site about the emotions involved in investing and how to keep them under control. It's the emotions of new investors (and some seasoned ones as well) that keep them falling prey to the sirens of speculation. They crash on the rocks of buying in January, selling in March and then buying back in again in July. It amazes me how one ca...
by DartThrower
Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is the best financial decision you ever made?
Replies: 212
Views: 21584

Re: What is the best financial decision you ever made?

There was no single decision for me. Maxing retirement contributions ranks pretty high though. It's really a cluster of decisions: keeping investing costs low, being diversified, not taking too much or too little risk, and living within my means.

The one great decision unique to me was to pursue a master's degree during the severe recession of 1982. That set me up for a lifetime of higher future earnings. I was unemployed in 1982 but I might have been able to land a job as a bank teller. I'm glad I chose grad school instead. These days graduate education can be ridiculously expensive so if I were in the same situation (jobless) I might look for alternative ways to further my education. Nevertheless the same logic applies.
by DartThrower
Thu Jun 25, 2020 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility is NOT Risk, Bogle
Replies: 39
Views: 4399

Re: Volatility is NOT Risk, Bogle

I take great comfort in the consistency between Buffett and Bogle on this topic, although the way Buffett presents it is more understandable to me. From Buffett's 2011 letter to shareholders: investing is forgoing consumption now in order to have the ability to consume more at a later date. From our definition there flows an important corollary: The riskiness of an investment is not measured by beta (a Wall Street term encompassing volatility and often used in measuring risk) but rather by the probability – the reasoned probability – of that investment causing its owner a loss of purchasing-power over his contemplated holding period. Assets can fluctuate greatly in price and not be risky as long as they are reasonably certain to deliver inc...
by DartThrower
Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?
Replies: 238
Views: 24762

Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

In the words of the immortal financial advisors Asleep at the Wheel, "Dance with Who Brung You". Our financial plans have brought us to this place, and if we have followed them faithfully we have received our fair share of the rewards investing has to offer. So regardless of the market's path forward or how I feel about it, why change? You got to dance with who brung you, swing with who swung you, Don't be a fickle fool, you came here with a gal, who's always been your Pal, don't leave her for the first unattached girl, it just ain't cool You got to dance with who brung you, swing with who swung you, Life ain't no forty-yard dash, be in it for the long run... -Asleep at the Wheel There will be good times and bad times in the years...
by DartThrower
Thu May 28, 2020 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard and Fidelity investors stay the course
Replies: 5
Views: 964

Re: Vanguard and Fidelity investors stay the course

Guilty of:
  • Rebalancing
  • Tax loss harvesting
  • Roth conversion
  • Consolidation of funds to simplify

If doing this is wrong I don't wanna be right.
by DartThrower
Wed May 27, 2020 5:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the stock market up? [thread multi-merge]
Replies: 521
Views: 31500

Re: 40m Unemployment Claims - I Don’t Understand Why Markets Seem To Not Care

Stranger to me than the market not being relatively lower, is how many people seem upset that it's not. They are all people who sold on March 24 and are in cash, waiting to buy back in :mrgreen: I am absolutely stunned by the number of investors who said in March something like "The market is riskier now than it was in January. Hold off and don't rebalance until things settle down a bit". That is confusing rebalancing with market timing. The market is always risky. The best course is being in balance according to your IPS regardless of the level of the market or the amount of fear/euphoria in the news. Jonathan Clements got it exactly right in this article "27 Things to Do Now" on March 21: https://humbledollar.com/2020...
by DartThrower
Mon May 11, 2020 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Scary" Stocks For The Long Term: Jonathan Clements
Replies: 25
Views: 4704

Re: "Scary" Stocks For The Long Term: Jonathan Clements

Were stocks "scary" at S&P 3300? Yet the damage was much worse to anyone who bought then rather than in late March or anyone who buys now at S&P 2900. I don't disagree with the conclusion but stocks should always be regarded as scary, perhaps more so when everyone thinks they are safe. Good point. Emotions can cause some investors to confuse rebalancing with market timing, and to confuse recent volatility with meaningfully increased long term stock market risk. That's why I'm thankful to Clements for his insprational blog post "27 things to do now" written in March: https://humbledollar.com/2020/03/27-things-to-do-now/ It was an inspiration - not to time the market - but to have the courage to rebalance and stay...
by DartThrower
Tue May 05, 2020 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 19725

Re: American exceptionalism

garlandwhizzer wrote: Sun May 03, 2020 11:27 am those of us who are at global market cap weight have lost a lot of money waiting for more than a decade for theory to become reality.

Garland Whizzer
I have been at close to market cap weight in international over the past 20 years, and I don't consider myself to have lost a lot of money. I'm quite happy to have my fair share of global equity returns. If the US underperforms international over the next 10 years or so I won't consider myself to have lost a lot of money either. I will consider it diversification in action.
by DartThrower
Mon May 04, 2020 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Uh, Cramer? [urging us to dump S&P 500 index funds]
Replies: 15
Views: 2676

Re: Uh, Cramer? [urging us to dump S&P 500 index funds]

Isn't one premise of the show that you're picking stocks with your "Mad Money" and that serious savings should be in reasonable investments such as plain vanilla stock and bond index funds? I think I heard him say something to that effect years ago.
by DartThrower
Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ER cut for TSM ETF VTI - false info in banner, now removed!
Replies: 13
Views: 10687

Re: ER cut for TSM ETF VTI

They're going in the right direction! :happy
by DartThrower
Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's new forecast from Christine Benz
Replies: 38
Views: 7345

Re: Vanguard's new forecast from Christine Benz

Alan S. wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 12:39 pm If a forecast is wrong, 99% of people just forget it. No risk or accountability on the part of the forecaster.
Ed Yardeni (Y2K, currently touted as a guru)
But if they are anywhere near correct, they become gurus. If an individual, a book deal will be imminent.
Meredith Whitney (Financial Crisis, then horrible Muni Bond call)
Elaine Garzarelli (1987 crash, then founded the worst performing growth stock fund of 1988. By 1990 she had underperformed the S&P by 43%)

These three pundits have been among my greatest teachers. I can't thank them enough! There is no better way to learn and accept Bogle's principals than to see them in action!
by DartThrower
Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munger/Buffett on riding out the storm
Replies: 76
Views: 12146

Re: Munger/Buffett on riding out the storm

Like Ronald Reagan once said "There you go again..." Some investors in this forum are waiting to see more money printing and high inflation before fearing the stock market. This strikes me as some serious market timing. Do they really think the market won't price these risks as they unfold? The market is the collective judgement of millions of investors, many of whom are pros and even they can't beat the market consistently. What makes me think I can? The point is to always have a healthy fear of the market which is irrespective of any imagined future point in time. Some investors have claimed that the market was less risky at the begining of the year than it is today. How can a market that was about to fall by 37% be less risky t...
by DartThrower
Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone use global cap weight plus a set domestic tilt for equities?
Replies: 64
Views: 3743

Re: Does anyone use global cap weight plus a set domestic tilt for equities?

I just decided to go roughly 55% VTI and 45% VXUS for my stock allocation. The future is unknowable and so I don't pretend to have a lot of precision about it. In the absense of predictability diversification is a great strategy. I think it's way more important to have a sensible plan and have the emotional maturity to stick to that plan even in times like these.
by DartThrower
Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 38117

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

I haven't seen this Bogle quote in a while. It seems appropriate now:
There is a lot of noise in the daily volatility of the stock market, which too often is “a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.”
As I write this the SP500 is up 2.90% and right below that number is the headline "Goldman says downturn will be 4 times worse than housing crisis".

Continue to invest in the engines of wealth creation throughout the world. When the smoke clears from all of this in a few years, you'll be glad you did.
by DartThrower
Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Keeping up with inflation?
Replies: 19
Views: 3489

Re: Keeping up with inflation?

andypanda wrote: Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:11 am "Without working in the effects of inflation historic gas prices are hard to interpret."

That's true, but way back when (when gas was 18 cents a gallon the year I was born and between 19 and 30 cents when I started driving at 15) they came out and pumped it for you, checked your oil and washed your windshield. And then gave you a free glass or steak knife if you got a fill-up. Heck, they even smiled when they took your money and thanked you for stopping by.

How do we figure all of that service into the inflation calculation?
Don't forget the free road maps. I must have collected about 30 of them as a kid. :sharebeer
by DartThrower
Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Nobody Knows Nothin'"
Replies: 83
Views: 10904

Re: "Nobody Knows Nothin'"

Actually the concept of "Nobody Knows Nothin" is quite liberating. An investor can be assured to get their fair share of market returns without doing all the hard work it would take (not to mention dealing with the emotions) if it were possible to "Know somethin". It just requires understanding a few common sense rules and having the maturity to see your plan to fruition.

The rest of your time is all yours!
by DartThrower
Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Nobody Knows Nothin'"
Replies: 83
Views: 10904

Re: "Nobody Knows Nothin'"

Coltrane75 wrote: Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:05 am
Ramjet wrote: Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:00 am The quote may be my biggest pet peeve on Bogleheads

It's like getting confirmation you can turn your brain off :(
Seriously!
If someone walked up to you and said there is an investment mechanism that you should use for your lifetime savings that is great and it works by providing completely random returns whose basis is impossible to know anything about, I doubt anyone would go for it.

Yet that is the logic of NKN.
A guy like Warren Buffett freely admits that he has no idea where the market will be in 6 months or a year. Yet he is among the most successful investors of all time. That is the sense in which I take the "nobody knows nothin" saying.
by DartThrower
Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 38117

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

watchnerd wrote: Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:56 am
Until I see revised earnings, I have no idea.

It's possible that valuations could be just as high after we see lowered earnings as they were on Feb 1.
I wasn't trying to make the case that risk has decreased due to the market drop, rather that the market is always risky.

I realize that there are different ways people define risk. I try to stick with Buffett's definition which I believe is consistent with Boglehead philosophy.

From my perspective revised earnings will be known and acted upon by the pros long before I have had a chance to see them so I don't factor them into my IPS.
by DartThrower
Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 38117

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

My thoughts go to analysts and advisors on TV who claimed "Hell is coming" and some who were telling us that the market was incredibly risky.... even after it had already fallen by over 30%!!! Are they meaning to say that the market wasn't risky a week BEFORE it fell by 35% yet now it is? Then I think about some of the wise advice by Boglehead oriented journalists such as Jonathan Clements who was the subject of a thread a couple of weeks back entitled "27 Things to Do Now". I'm so glad I took his advice and rebalanced before anyone "rang a bell" to proclaim it is safe to get back in. It's never safe to get in and it's never safe to get out. Keeping a balanced portfolio in accordance with one's plan is the only...
by DartThrower
Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do You Use Vanguard AND Fidelity?
Replies: 26
Views: 2835

Re: Do You Use Vanguard AND Fidelity?

I used Vanguard, DW uses Fidelity. We have equivalent low cost index funds offered by each.

In my case I have been with Vanguard since the mid-90s and have been happy ever since. In her case, she likes the hand holding from an advisor and that fact that they have an office nearby where she can meet with them in person.

The arrangement has been working great.
by DartThrower
Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Business Cycle: At least one recession every 10 years
Replies: 56
Views: 4257

Re: Business Cycle: At least one recession every 10 years

So if the corona virus had hit in 2012 we would have had a massive double dip recession similar to 1980-82 or perhaps comparable to the Great Depression coupled with the Dust Bowl years. Does that mean we were overdue in 1935 or 1982 or 2012? I guess we're just overdue every year then.
by DartThrower
Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The most long-term-profitable emotion in investing.
Replies: 48
Views: 3753

Re: The most long-term-profitable emotion in investing.

Merriam - Webster definition of emotion: a conscious mental reaction (such as anger or fear) subjectively experienced as strong feeling usually directed toward a specific object and typically accompanied by physiological and behavioral changes in the body. Focus in on the words "subjectively" and "behavioral" and note how they are connected. Emotions are subjective and illicit behaviors based on this subjectivity. The best character trait a person can have, especially in this environment, is the ability to not allow subjectivity driven by emotions to derail a plan that was devised logically, objectively and rationally in calmer times. That's why I chose "equaniminity" even though that is also not an emotion. Ra...
by DartThrower
Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Starting a test going forward: Motley Fool versus index fund
Replies: 29
Views: 5943

Re: Starting a test going forward: Motley Fool versus index fund

Is there a time horizon or does it run indefinitely?
Maybe they would be interested over at the Long Now foundation: http://longnow.org/
by DartThrower
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CNBC: Investors Should Be Buying Individual Stocks, Not Indexes
Replies: 84
Views: 9231

Re: Mohamed El-Arian Comments

El-Arian was one of the first guys I heard using the phrase "New Normal" immediately following the financial crisis. He may have even invented the phrase. I don't know. He used this phrase to refer to a stagnant economy and very low interest rates for a long time. I got a distinct sense of pessimism from him about the stock market back then. As I look back it turns out he was more or less right about the economy, but I'm glad I didn't let his frequent pessimism about stocks throw me off course in my personal investing. He may have deep insights into the inner workings of the economy (including the political economy) but even these insights don't give an investor an edge in timing the market IMO.
by DartThrower
Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the 2 Fund Portfolio the new "3 Fund portfolio"?
Replies: 59
Views: 8049

Re: Is the 2 Fund Portfolio the new "3 Fund portfolio"?

... One thing that's concerning though is that in both cases the good performance was very bubble-like and in both cases most investors were probably late to the party. Japanese stocks were going bananas in the 80s before the crash (P/E was around double the dot com peak). With EM, the US market was doing poorly at that point. Money started pouring into EM, it shot up like a rocket and crashed. I cringe every time an investing concept gets an acronym or a label. FAANG, PIGS, BRIC, Japan Inc, etc. By the time an acronym makes its way into the investing public's consiousness, investors are "probably too late to the party" as grog said. The SP500 is not a label or a fad like the others but it is still just a way to subset a group of...
by DartThrower
Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where Is The SP 500 Future
Replies: 32
Views: 3654

Re: Where Is The SP 500 Future

I own a global mix of stocks. Many argue that the international market is more reasonably valued. Perhaps it is. If you include international as part of your equity mix then SP500 is less important no matter what the 40 year return is.
by DartThrower
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wisdom and Perspective from Jonathan Clements
Replies: 19
Views: 3023

Re: Wisdom and Perspective from Jonathan Clements

It is not a matter of waiting a set time, but of understanding that the same 60/40 portfolio that had a certain risk in January today is much more risky. I can't say I agree. The same risk existed in January but we just didn't understand it. Nobody did. There was no virus in January. And even if there already were a few cases, let's say December, or November. What does that change ? My take is that the stock market is usually extremely, although not perfectly, efficient at reflecting economic prospects in the prices of stocks. The prospects for the economy are reflected in stock prices so quickly that even professionals rarely beat the market on any kind of consistent basis. This fact means that it was just as risky to have money in the ma...
by DartThrower
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wisdom and Perspective from Jonathan Clements
Replies: 19
Views: 3023

Re: Wisdom and Perspective from Jonathan Clements

Thesaints wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:57 pm It is not a matter of waiting a set time, but of understanding that the same 60/40 portfolio that had a certain risk in January today is much more risky.
I can't say I agree. The same risk existed in January but we just didn't understand it. Nobody did.
by DartThrower
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wisdom and Perspective from Jonathan Clements
Replies: 19
Views: 3023

Re: Wisdom and Perspective from Jonathan Clements

CNBC Headline 3/26/20: Jobless claims soar past 3 million to record high

Result as of 10:00am 3/26/20: S&P 500 up >3%.

Conclusion: Nobody knows nothin'
by DartThrower
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wisdom and Perspective from Jonathan Clements
Replies: 19
Views: 3023

Re: Wisdom and Perspective from Jonathan Clements

Thesaints wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:46 pm Let's also put Clements' advice in perspective:
1 million Californians have filed for unemployment since Mar. 13
Does this mean we should wait 2 months? 8 months? 12 months? before it's safe to start to rebalance. Does the market not know there will be massive unemployment in the near term?
by DartThrower
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wisdom and Perspective from Jonathan Clements
Replies: 19
Views: 3023

Re: Wisdom and Perspective from Jonathan Clements

Long-time readers of this forum will be acquainted with Jonathan Clements, former WSJ finance columnist and now writer of the excellent Humble Dollar weekly letter. This weeks letter, “27 Things to Do Now,” is full of balanced and smart thinking about the current crisis and how to react/respond/act as an investor. See at: https://humbledollar.com/2020/03/27-things-to-do-now/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=another-ses-test_7 Lots of good reminders for all. Essential reading for those who are recent arrivals to the forum. Note the subscription box at the top of the page. The price is “Boglehead Right” (free!) and no shenanigans happen with your contact information. cinghiale, I want to personally thank you for maki...
by DartThrower
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?
Replies: 98
Views: 8787

Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

z3r0c00l wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:41 pm Took about 6 years last time, so I would guess some time in 2026. President Nick Nolte will get a boost in the polls as a result.
He has the credentials:

Early on I decided that I was going to lie to the press. The best approach to talking about my personal life was to lie.
-- Nick Nolte
Being an optimist I'll go with 4 years. Just prior to the start of the Nolte Administration.
by DartThrower
Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Would Jack Bogle Do?
Replies: 45
Views: 4048

Re: What Would Jack Bogle Do?

Great article. Thanks Mel. I remember Jack saying:
I've said "stay the course" a thousand times and I meant it every time. It is the single most important piece of investment wisdom I can give you.
This quote has gone though my mind over and over the past several weeks. If Jack were alive today this would be the 1001st time (and he would still mean it!).
by DartThrower
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing in retirement
Replies: 6
Views: 725

Re: Rebalancing in retirement

My plans for retirement factored in the possibility of a sharp market decline early on i.e. "sequence of returns risk". That's why I feel comfortable rebalancing back into that relatively conservative portfolio without putting my ability to generate near-term income at risk. There is a ton of noise out there right now. Lots of siren songs luring us to veer off course. Bonds have played their role in today's market of providing stability in one's portfolio, but they present a massive risk long term especially if inflation picks up. By the time that risk shows up in perhaps 10-15 years I will be too old to do much about it. Therefore to NOT rebalance as called for in my plan is a very risky approach. If your plan is appropriate for ...
by DartThrower
Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:04 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Expat and currency exchange
Replies: 19
Views: 3868

Re: Expat and currency exchange

Thanks for all the tips and insights. They will be a great place for to start researching. If anyone has an opinion on dedicated expat websites that provide the best tips on this and other expat issues please let me know. There is a lot of information out there on the web so I am always trying to find out what the most reputable sources are. Here is a website that has been recommended before on BH: https://www.expatfocus.com/ An article from the NYT from this week: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/21/realestate/how-to-be-an-expatriate-in-2020.html How to Be an Expatriate in 2020 Thanks to leaps in technology, social media and the expanded mobile economy, more people are leaving home for good. Here’s how they do it. Based on that NYT article ...
by DartThrower
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows 10 Performance Problem
Replies: 19
Views: 1827

Re: Windows 10 Performance Problem

This may be completely unrelated, but yesterday Microsoft attempted to update my Office install on Windows 10. It got completely corrupted, and when I attempted to do a full repair, it deleted Office entirely from my system. I don't currently have time to figure out how to restore things or if I even can. Good luck with your Windows 10 issues. I empathize.
by DartThrower
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:17 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Expat and currency exchange
Replies: 19
Views: 3868

Expat and currency exchange

Hi Bogleheads My wife and I are planning to live as expats for a period of time in Poland (and then elsewhere in Europe) and I'd like to know what is the best way to exchange dollars for foreign currency. What will keep costs low, be secure and minimize effort for a larger amount of money? After reading the threads on here about expat brokerages, we have tentatively decided on Schwab as our brokerage and will likely set up a checking account in our destination country as well. We consider ourselves semi-retired and don't need to work, but will consider working as opportunities present themselves. Any money we make will just be supplemental to what we have already allocated i.e. mad money. If anyone has an opinion on dedicated expat websites...
by DartThrower
Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the highest expense ratio you willingly pay?
Replies: 177
Views: 19802

Re: What is the highest expense ratio you willingly pay?

My highest currently is VANGUARD FTSE EMERGING MARKETS ETF (VWO) at 12 bp. Overall portfolio cost is 7 bp and there it will stay.
by DartThrower
Fri Jan 24, 2020 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are interest rates ever going back up?
Replies: 98
Views: 9416

Re: Are interest rates ever going back up?

"U.S. Treasury bubble one for the ages...
When the financial history of this decade is written, it will surely speak of the Internet bubble of the late 1990s and the housing bubble of the early 2000s, but the U.S. Treasury bond bubble of late 2008 may be regarded as almost equally extraordinary.”

-Warren Buffett

I'm glad I took Buffett's advice on stocks, but this statement about treasury bonds still sticks in my mind. Perhaps he was right, just a decade or three early?
by DartThrower
Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted]
Replies: 70
Views: 8668

Re: What is cheap now to buy? - Ideas for the risk averse BH

I thought Japan was getting cheap in 1995. The fact that I didn't act on impulses like that is a major reason I was able to retire early last year. If you want my opinion, diversify broadly then stay the course.