Search found 944 matches

by DartThrower
Thu May 28, 2020 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard and Fidelity investors stay the course
Replies: 5
Views: 743

Re: Vanguard and Fidelity investors stay the course

Guilty of:
  • Rebalancing
  • Tax loss harvesting
  • Roth conversion
  • Consolidation of funds to simplify

If doing this is wrong I don't wanna be right.
by DartThrower
Wed May 27, 2020 5:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 40m Unemployment Claims - I Don’t Understand Why Markets Seem To Not Care
Replies: 86
Views: 9594

Re: 40m Unemployment Claims - I Don’t Understand Why Markets Seem To Not Care

Stranger to me than the market not being relatively lower, is how many people seem upset that it's not. They are all people who sold on March 24 and are in cash, waiting to buy back in :mrgreen: I am absolutely stunned by the number of investors who said in March something like "The market is riski...
by DartThrower
Mon May 11, 2020 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Scary" Stocks For The Long Term: Jonathan Clements
Replies: 25
Views: 4182

Re: "Scary" Stocks For The Long Term: Jonathan Clements

Were stocks "scary" at S&P 3300? Yet the damage was much worse to anyone who bought then rather than in late March or anyone who buys now at S&P 2900. I don't disagree with the conclusion but stocks should always be regarded as scary, perhaps more so when everyone thinks they are safe. Good point. ...
by DartThrower
Tue May 05, 2020 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16085

Re: American exceptionalism

those of us who are at global market cap weight have lost a lot of money waiting for more than a decade for theory to become reality. Garland Whizzer I have been at close to market cap weight in international over the past 20 years, and I don't consider myself to have lost a lot of money. I'm quite...
by DartThrower
Mon May 04, 2020 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Uh, Cramer? [urging us to dump S&P 500 index funds]
Replies: 15
Views: 2179

Re: Uh, Cramer? [urging us to dump S&P 500 index funds]

Isn't one premise of the show that you're picking stocks with your "Mad Money" and that serious savings should be in reasonable investments such as plain vanilla stock and bond index funds? I think I heard him say something to that effect years ago.
by DartThrower
Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ER cut for TSM ETF VTI - false info in banner, now removed!
Replies: 13
Views: 936

Re: ER cut for TSM ETF VTI

They're going in the right direction! :happy
by DartThrower
Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's new forecast from Christine Benz
Replies: 38
Views: 6693

Re: Vanguard's new forecast from Christine Benz

If a forecast is wrong, 99% of people just forget it. No risk or accountability on the part of the forecaster. Ed Yardeni (Y2K, currently touted as a guru) But if they are anywhere near correct, they become gurus. If an individual, a book deal will be imminent. Meredith Whitney (Financial Crisis, t...
by DartThrower
Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munger/Buffett on riding out the storm
Replies: 76
Views: 10478

Re: Munger/Buffett on riding out the storm

Like Ronald Reagan once said "There you go again..." Some investors in this forum are waiting to see more money printing and high inflation before fearing the stock market. This strikes me as some serious market timing. Do they really think the market won't price these risks as they unfold? The mark...
by DartThrower
Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone use global cap weight plus a set domestic tilt for equities?
Replies: 64
Views: 2428

Re: Does anyone use global cap weight plus a set domestic tilt for equities?

I just decided to go roughly 55% VTI and 45% VXUS for my stock allocation. The future is unknowable and so I don't pretend to have a lot of precision about it. In the absense of predictability diversification is a great strategy. I think it's way more important to have a sensible plan and have the e...
by DartThrower
Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 32142

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

I haven't seen this Bogle quote in a while. It seems appropriate now: There is a lot of noise in the daily volatility of the stock market, which too often is “a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.” As I write this the SP500 is up 2.90% and right below that number is th...
by DartThrower
Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Keeping up with inflation?
Replies: 19
Views: 2987

Re: Keeping up with inflation?

"Without working in the effects of inflation historic gas prices are hard to interpret." That's true, but way back when (when gas was 18 cents a gallon the year I was born and between 19 and 30 cents when I started driving at 15) they came out and pumped it for you, checked your oil and washed your...
by DartThrower
Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Nobody Knows Nothin'"
Replies: 35
Views: 2467

Re: "Nobody Knows Nothin'"

Actually the concept of "Nobody Knows Nothin" is quite liberating. An investor can be assured to get their fair share of market returns without doing all the hard work it would take (not to mention dealing with the emotions) if it were possible to "Know somethin". It just requires understanding a fe...
by DartThrower
Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Nobody Knows Nothin'"
Replies: 35
Views: 2467

Re: "Nobody Knows Nothin'"

The quote may be my biggest pet peeve on Bogleheads It's like getting confirmation you can turn your brain off :( Seriously! If someone walked up to you and said there is an investment mechanism that you should use for your lifetime savings that is great and it works by providing completely random ...
by DartThrower
Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 32142

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

Until I see revised earnings, I have no idea. It's possible that valuations could be just as high after we see lowered earnings as they were on Feb 1. I wasn't trying to make the case that risk has decreased due to the market drop, rather that the market is always risky. I realize that there are di...
by DartThrower
Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 32142

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

My thoughts go to analysts and advisors on TV who claimed "Hell is coming" and some who were telling us that the market was incredibly risky.... even after it had already fallen by over 30%!!! Are they meaning to say that the market wasn't risky a week BEFORE it fell by 35% yet now it is? Then I thi...
by DartThrower
Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do You Use Vanguard AND Fidelity?
Replies: 26
Views: 1671

Re: Do You Use Vanguard AND Fidelity?

I used Vanguard, DW uses Fidelity. We have equivalent low cost index funds offered by each. In my case I have been with Vanguard since the mid-90s and have been happy ever since. In her case, she likes the hand holding from an advisor and that fact that they have an office nearby where she can meet ...
by DartThrower
Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Business Cycle: At least one recession every 10 years
Replies: 56
Views: 2713

Re: Business Cycle: At least one recession every 10 years

So if the corona virus had hit in 2012 we would have had a massive double dip recession similar to 1980-82 or perhaps comparable to the Great Depression coupled with the Dust Bowl years. Does that mean we were overdue in 1935 or 1982 or 2012? I guess we're just overdue every year then.
by DartThrower
Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The most long-term-profitable emotion in investing.
Replies: 48
Views: 2630

Re: The most long-term-profitable emotion in investing.

Merriam - Webster definition of emotion: a conscious mental reaction (such as anger or fear) subjectively experienced as strong feeling usually directed toward a specific object and typically accompanied by physiological and behavioral changes in the body. Focus in on the words "subjectively" and "b...
by DartThrower
Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Starting a test going forward: Motley Fool versus index fund
Replies: 8
Views: 851

Re: Starting a test going forward: Motley Fool versus index fund

Is there a time horizon or does it run indefinitely?
Maybe they would be interested over at the Long Now foundation: http://longnow.org/
by DartThrower
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CNBC: Investors Should Be Buying Individual Stocks, Not Indexes
Replies: 84
Views: 7506

Re: Mohamed El-Arian Comments

El-Arian was one of the first guys I heard using the phrase "New Normal" immediately following the financial crisis. He may have even invented the phrase. I don't know. He used this phrase to refer to a stagnant economy and very low interest rates for a long time. I got a distinct sense of pessimism...
by DartThrower
Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the 2 Fund Portfolio the new "3 Fund portfolio"?
Replies: 59
Views: 4572

Re: Is the 2 Fund Portfolio the new "3 Fund portfolio"?

... One thing that's concerning though is that in both cases the good performance was very bubble-like and in both cases most investors were probably late to the party. Japanese stocks were going bananas in the 80s before the crash (P/E was around double the dot com peak). With EM, the US market wa...
by DartThrower
Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where Is The SP 500 Future
Replies: 32
Views: 3095

Re: Where Is The SP 500 Future

I own a global mix of stocks. Many argue that the international market is more reasonably valued. Perhaps it is. If you include international as part of your equity mix then SP500 is less important no matter what the 40 year return is.
by DartThrower
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wisdom and Perspective from Jonathan Clements
Replies: 19
Views: 2546

Re: Wisdom and Perspective from Jonathan Clements

It is not a matter of waiting a set time, but of understanding that the same 60/40 portfolio that had a certain risk in January today is much more risky. I can't say I agree. The same risk existed in January but we just didn't understand it. Nobody did. There was no virus in January. And even if th...
by DartThrower
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wisdom and Perspective from Jonathan Clements
Replies: 19
Views: 2546

Re: Wisdom and Perspective from Jonathan Clements

Thesaints wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:57 pm
It is not a matter of waiting a set time, but of understanding that the same 60/40 portfolio that had a certain risk in January today is much more risky.
I can't say I agree. The same risk existed in January but we just didn't understand it. Nobody did.
by DartThrower
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wisdom and Perspective from Jonathan Clements
Replies: 19
Views: 2546

Re: Wisdom and Perspective from Jonathan Clements

CNBC Headline 3/26/20: Jobless claims soar past 3 million to record high

Result as of 10:00am 3/26/20: S&P 500 up >3%.

Conclusion: Nobody knows nothin'
by DartThrower
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wisdom and Perspective from Jonathan Clements
Replies: 19
Views: 2546

Re: Wisdom and Perspective from Jonathan Clements

Let's also put Clements' advice in perspective: 1 million Californians have filed for unemployment since Mar. 13 https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-covid-19-news-and-live-updates-120246923.html Does this mean we should wait 2 months? 8 months? 12 months? before it's safe to start to rebalance. ...
by DartThrower
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wisdom and Perspective from Jonathan Clements
Replies: 19
Views: 2546

Re: Wisdom and Perspective from Jonathan Clements

Long-time readers of this forum will be acquainted with Jonathan Clements, former WSJ finance columnist and now writer of the excellent Humble Dollar weekly letter. This weeks letter, “27 Things to Do Now,” is full of balanced and smart thinking about the current crisis and how to react/respond/act...
by DartThrower
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?
Replies: 98
Views: 6249

Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Took about 6 years last time, so I would guess some time in 2026. President Nick Nolte will get a boost in the polls as a result. He has the credentials: Early on I decided that I was going to lie to the press. The best approach to talking about my personal life was to lie. -- Nick Nolte Being an o...
by DartThrower
Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Would Jack Bogle Do?
Replies: 45
Views: 3276

Re: What Would Jack Bogle Do?

Great article. Thanks Mel. I remember Jack saying: I've said "stay the course" a thousand times and I meant it every time. It is the single most important piece of investment wisdom I can give you. This quote has gone though my mind over and over the past several weeks. If Jack were alive today this...
by DartThrower
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing in retirement
Replies: 6
Views: 429

Re: Rebalancing in retirement

My plans for retirement factored in the possibility of a sharp market decline early on i.e. "sequence of returns risk". That's why I feel comfortable rebalancing back into that relatively conservative portfolio without putting my ability to generate near-term income at risk. There is a ton of noise ...
by DartThrower
Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:04 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Expat and currency exchange
Replies: 10
Views: 968

Re: Expat and currency exchange

Thanks for all the tips and insights. They will be a great place for to start researching. If anyone has an opinion on dedicated expat websites that provide the best tips on this and other expat issues please let me know. There is a lot of information out there on the web so I am always trying to fi...
by DartThrower
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows 10 Performance Problem
Replies: 19
Views: 1467

Re: Windows 10 Performance Problem

This may be completely unrelated, but yesterday Microsoft attempted to update my Office install on Windows 10. It got completely corrupted, and when I attempted to do a full repair, it deleted Office entirely from my system. I don't currently have time to figure out how to restore things or if I eve...
by DartThrower
Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:17 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Expat and currency exchange
Replies: 10
Views: 968

Expat and currency exchange

Hi Bogleheads My wife and I are planning to live as expats for a period of time in Poland (and then elsewhere in Europe) and I'd like to know what is the best way to exchange dollars for foreign currency. What will keep costs low, be secure and minimize effort for a larger amount of money? After rea...
by DartThrower
Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the highest expense ratio you willingly pay?
Replies: 123
Views: 8487

Re: What is the highest expense ratio you willingly pay?

My highest currently is VANGUARD FTSE EMERGING MARKETS ETF (VWO) at 12 bp. Overall portfolio cost is 7 bp and there it will stay.
by DartThrower
Fri Jan 24, 2020 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are interest rates ever going back up?
Replies: 98
Views: 7799

Re: Are interest rates ever going back up?

"U.S. Treasury bubble one for the ages... When the financial history of this decade is written, it will surely speak of the Internet bubble of the late 1990s and the housing bubble of the early 2000s, but the U.S. Treasury bond bubble of late 2008 may be regarded as almost equally extraordinary.” -W...
by DartThrower
Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted]
Replies: 70
Views: 7920

Re: What is cheap now to buy? - Ideas for the risk averse BH

I thought Japan was getting cheap in 1995. The fact that I didn't act on impulses like that is a major reason I was able to retire early last year. If you want my opinion, diversify broadly then stay the course.
by DartThrower
Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement numbers
Replies: 4
Views: 1832

Re: Retirement numbers

In my head I can hear Carly Simon singing "These are the good old days...."

Congrats and I hope all your retirement years are happy ones!
by DartThrower
Tue Jan 07, 2020 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In my opinion, Best Overall Retirement Article
Replies: 95
Views: 11138

Re: In my opinion, Best Overall Retirement Article

I find points #3 and #6 in direct conflict. #3. Stay resilient, flexible, and plan on working until you no longer have the ability to work. #6. And the most important suggestion of all – take care of your health. Once that is gone, it is hard to get health back, and not much else really matters. Wh...
by DartThrower
Sat Dec 07, 2019 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1111
Views: 110437

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Essentially you have a Two Fund Portfolio of Total Stock and Short Term Treasuries. I like your approach. It appears you have not complicated things with international and other additional funds. That is exactly correct. It could be fair to say I have a "Buffett" portfolio. Many people criticize Bo...
by DartThrower
Thu Nov 21, 2019 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do index funds magnify bubbles and recessions?
Replies: 16
Views: 1725

Re: Do index funds magnify bubbles and recessions?

It's possible to have a bubble in stocks, a bubble in bonds, a bubble in gold, a bubble in oil and I suppose a bubble in cash holdings (a liquidity trap). All kinds of bubbles are possible, but a bubble in common sense investing is not possible. Bogle wrote a whole book on common sense investing whi...
by DartThrower
Thu Nov 21, 2019 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab acquiring TD Ameritrade
Replies: 131
Views: 14219

Re: Schwab acquiring TD Ameritrade

Bloomberg news reported that CNBC broke the news. In any case, I hope that competition in the industry remains healthy and vigorous. I just moved money to Schwab a few months ago for the first time and I expect service to remain excellent, and costs to remain low.
by DartThrower
Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: CNBC Nightly Business Report cease production in Dec 2019
Replies: 123
Views: 7450

Re: CNBC Nightly Business Report cease production in Dec 2019

This is a very sad development, I have watched this program for many years. I will miss this program, I still miss Wall $treet Week with Louis Rukeyser. I have fond memories of many years of the late Paul Kangas. I will wish Nighty Business Report the best of good buys. Susie Gharib was great too. ...
by DartThrower
Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you reconcile these two opposing views
Replies: 42
Views: 4140

Re: How do you reconcile these two opposing views

Bogle himself voiced concerns about an overvalued stock market in recent years before his passing. But, heeding his own advice that "nobody knows nuthin", he didn't advise radical reallocation of assets. His advice was to make small changes towards a somewhat more conservative portfolio if one was s...
by DartThrower
Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you reconcile these two opposing views
Replies: 42
Views: 4140

Re: How do you reconcile these two opposing views

You might want to look into Burten Malkiel's concept of weak efficiency: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/weakform.asp And also Andrew Lo's Adaptive Market Hypothesis: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adaptive_market_hypothesis Markets can be inefficient, but there is fairly broad agreement that th...
by DartThrower
Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheets
Replies: 77
Views: 6978

Re: Spreadsheets

No financial advisor. No actively managed funds. No spreadsheet. Simplicity! A nice place to be at. No spreadsheet for the portfolio. All portfolio info is up at Vanguard. We use google sheets for check register. I share it with my wife and she can see it in her google drive. 1 checking account 1 b...
by DartThrower
Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheets
Replies: 77
Views: 6978

Re: Spreadsheets

The other is our household budget, where I track income and expenses on a monthly, quarterly, and annual basis. I project expected amounts in various categories and fill in "actuals" as those numbers become available. That's usually January of the following year. That often results in my wife and I...
by DartThrower
Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheets
Replies: 77
Views: 6978

Re: Spreadsheets

I don't really need a spreadsheet in my situation. Since I have had all Vanguard funds the past 20 years I feel comfortable just using Account Balances and Portfolio Watch. Due to market returns, aggressive 403(b) savings and inflation the nominal value of my portfolio has increased 7 fold over the ...
by DartThrower
Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Subaru and the oil consumption problem
Replies: 6
Views: 1058

Re: Subaru and the oil consumption problem

My ‘13 Forester had the excessive oil consumption issues also and had the short block replaced. It took numerous oil consumption tests and some elevation beyond the dealer to corporate, but it finally happened. The dealer kept telling me it passed and I showed time stamp dated photos that it failed...
by DartThrower
Fri Sep 13, 2019 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Subaru and the oil consumption problem
Replies: 6
Views: 1058

Re: Subaru and the oil consumption problem

Thanks for the replies. Other than the oil problem the car didn't have any major issues so I will be reluctant to take the financial hit by selling it earlier than planned. It is still under its powertrain warranty to 60k miles. The dealer itself has been a major disappointment as well as the car.