Search found 45 matches

by NoRegret
Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Economics/life of Full time RV ownership while working?
Replies: 4
Views: 706

Re: Economics/life of Full time RV ownership while working?

No personal experience but check out
https://wheelingit.us

& digital nomads in general. Just google “digital nomad rv”.

Cheers,
NR
by NoRegret
Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1023
Views: 83277

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Most of those who have been around here long know that I'm a trend follower. Yes, this means that I time the market, but I use a carefully researched system to do so. It is entirely objective; there is no subjective element as to what I should do (i.e. no feelings or guesses). Yes, there were certa...
by NoRegret
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for App to Analyze Past Fund Performance
Replies: 6
Views: 493

Re: Looking for App to Analyze Past Fund Performance

https://www.buyupside.com/stockreturncalculator/stockreturncalcinput.php Unfortunately this one doesn't work for ETFs or MFs. http://www.idacorpinc.com/investor-relations/stock-information/total-return-calculator This one seems to work. I can't vouch for its accuracy. The "adjusted close" data from ...
by NoRegret
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset
Replies: 66
Views: 4165

Re: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset

c) The coin-flip adds risk without adding any return, and reduces the risk-adjusted return for both of you. P: random variable (portfolio) B: random variable (bet). Var (P + B) = Var ( P ) + 2 * Cov ( P,B) + Var ( B) By the design of the problem, Cov ( P,B) = 0 {let's say we can muster up an iPhone...
by NoRegret
Sun Oct 07, 2018 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses
Replies: 150
Views: 21827

Re: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses

FYI. I kept some physical gold too. I am prepared. What percentages of your assets are in physical gold and how are you safe keeping it? Assuming minimum at 10%, what is the footprint of the gold? Say $1.5M in total assets, so $150K in physical gold, about 3KG in gold, about 5.5^3 cubic centimeter!...
by NoRegret
Fri Sep 28, 2018 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't I read about this strategy more? [12-month moving average, momentum]
Replies: 110
Views: 15787

Re: Why don't I read about this strategy more? It seems to beat everything else

OP, You can try it with leverage on buy signal :happy I'm only half tongue in cheek. I've long advocated that if the benchmark is buy-and-hold, then the timing strategy needs to be leveraged on buy signal so as to have the same time-averaged exposure for a fair comparison. Here's a link to Charlie B...
by NoRegret
Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any active forums/BBS grouping up non-Bogleheads?
Replies: 17
Views: 2058

Re: Is there any active forums/BBS grouping up non-Bogleheads?

r/wallstreetbets :oops: wsb can indeed be highly entertaining /s On Reddit r/investing, r/options, r/securityanalysis, r/fatfire, r/financialindependence, r/personalfinance General investing and PF: http://www.early-retirement.org/ https://forum.earlyretirementextreme.com/ https://forum.mrmoneymust...
by NoRegret
Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 75
Views: 6760

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

willthrill81, From that graph alone I would say stocks are a little higher than fairly valued, may be expensive even, but not terribly so. However, other valuation metrics like P/B, P/C, P/FCF (this one may be ok), EV/EBITA and total market cap/GDP show stocks to be richly valued. From your past pos...
by NoRegret
Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are there so few long-term investors?
Replies: 18
Views: 3120

Re: Why are there so few long-term investors?

To be clear Warren Buffett makes frequent changes to his portfolio: https://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Warren+Buffett&rec=2 But I agree he's a long term investor, perhaps the best of our time. Besides a singular adherence to his investing philosophy, he has also benefited from the stabi...
by NoRegret
Tue Sep 18, 2018 1:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can I buy ALIBABA and TENCENT stock?
Replies: 29
Views: 2967

Re: How can I buy ALIBABA and TENCENT stock?

WanderingDoc wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:00 pm
How can I buy ALIBABA and TENCENT stock directly? I know for sure I'm not the only one interested in doing this. I want to DCA into these stocks over the next 5-10 years.
$BABA and $TCEHY at your friendly neighborhood discount broker.

You asked a simple question. Here's a simple answer.

NR
by NoRegret
Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I found this informative about the next possible crisis
Replies: 22
Views: 5016

Re: I found this informative about the next possible crisis

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-lehman-anniversary/?srnd=premium Via bloomberg. I think it shows we have inherent risk that is way worse than your standard stock valuations etc. but at least its better than before. Then again, no where to go but up from that point. Thanks, I enjoyed that ar...
by NoRegret
Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lessons from the financial crisis (Pisani, CNBC)
Replies: 52
Views: 5559

Re: Lessons from the financial crisis (Pisani, CNBC)

FWIW I don’t expect a bear market of similar magnitude to ‘08 until the 2030’s. Of course, there will be cyclic bears along the way.

Chris Ciovacco (see his YouTube channel) has been consistent and spot on.

NR
by NoRegret
Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does market timing have to be perfect to be effective?
Replies: 35
Views: 2876

Re: Does market timing have to be perfect to be effective?

OP, Market timing is for risk reduction. If you're looking for return enhancement, try leverage. It could be totally rational to prioritize risk reduction at the price of a little return potential, depending on one's life stage. I believe a market timing strategy should be compared with buy-and-hold...
by NoRegret
Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Sequence of Returns Risk even make sense for early retirees?
Replies: 10
Views: 1480

Re: Does Sequence of Returns Risk even make sense for early retirees?

For early retirees, is your sequence of returns risk period longer than a normal retiree, or the same? Does the concept even apply? Let's say you've hit your FI number extremely early and retire at 35. You've weathered your first 5-10 years of retirement and your portfolio is doing well. Does this ...
by NoRegret
Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?
Replies: 70
Views: 5168

Re: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2018/06/corporate-profits-are-huge.html See the S&P P/E using NIPA profits from the link above. Scott Grannis has been a consistent cheerleader (not meant to be a negative) for this economy. You can also read Ed Yardeni on the strength of corporate profits. http://bl...
by NoRegret
Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60/40 vs 100% with Trailing Stop Loss
Replies: 36
Views: 2596

Re: 60/40 vs 100% with Trailing Stop Loss

Meb Faber used the 10-month SMA in his paper. I actually just wrote a blog post on it. http://www.50yearretirement.com/2018/08/22/its-never-easy/ Chart is S&P 500 monthly with 10-month SMA. Buy/sell signals are represented by red/green arrows. https://i1.wp.com/www.50yearretirement.com/wp-content/up...
by NoRegret
Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good biotech funds
Replies: 23
Views: 2335

Re: Good biotech funds

Don’t have domain knowledge but I find CRSP facinating — the gene editing tech, not the company.
As mentioned $IBB for established companies, $XBI if you want an oomph, $LABU for the fix.

Disclosre: Short $XBI puts

NR
by NoRegret
Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to diversify a dividend-yield portfolio
Replies: 21
Views: 2317

Re: How to diversify a dividend-yield portfolio

Call writing on a portfolio of growth stocks.
by NoRegret
Tue Jul 24, 2018 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don’t understand the concept of cost of equity
Replies: 26
Views: 2510

Re: I don’t understand the concept of cost of equity

Doesn’t appear to be many believers in Modigliani-Miller around here. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modigliani–Miller_theorem MM comes around a lot when we get into the famous dividend vs buyback arguments. :) MM “with taxes” recognizes the advantage of leverage (debt) but I think buyback vs. div...
by NoRegret
Mon Jul 23, 2018 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don’t understand the concept of cost of equity
Replies: 26
Views: 2510

Re: I don’t understand the concept of cost of equity

Doesn’t appear to be many believers in Modigliani-Miller around here.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modigli ... er_theorem
by NoRegret
Sat Jul 21, 2018 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "All-Weather Portfolio" - Not much info
Replies: 13
Views: 2050

Re: "All-Weather Portfolio" - Not much info

WanderingDoc, Check out https://investingforaliving.us/portfolios/ . There are different versions of "all weather" portfolios, Bridgewater's being the most famous. I just noticed the blog post refers to it as "all season". Maybe that's from Mebane Faber. Faber used to offer his ebook for free on his...
by NoRegret
Fri Jun 29, 2018 1:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heavy in equities?
Replies: 46
Views: 5457

Re: Heavy in equities?

Here are some results from my own testing on why I lean towards heavy equities, even in retirement: US 1871-2015 https://i.imgur.com/Wm6HcHX.png?1 35% bonds does slightly better than 100% equities for absolute minimum. But 100% equities does: $2,000 a year better at the 5th percentile $4,300 a year...
by NoRegret
Fri Jun 29, 2018 1:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Levering a portfolio to a 60/40 equivalent
Replies: 16
Views: 2575

Re: Levering a portfolio to a 60/40 equivalent

Birdec, Nothing wrong with what you’re proposing in principle. That’s essentially how risk parity funds work. Note that the benefit from holding negatively correlated assets is a mathematical fact. We’ve been in a disinflationary environment for a long time and stock/bond have had negative correlati...
by NoRegret
Wed Jun 27, 2018 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Toss Your Expectations
Replies: 36
Views: 5153

Re: Larry Swedroe: Toss Your Expectations

I find it very amusing that many, like Larry, who espouse the efficient market hypothesis on one hand at the same time claim that factor premiums are reduced after they are publicized. I think Larry understands that market efficiency is a consequence of intense competition between active investors ...
by NoRegret
Tue Jun 26, 2018 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The cost of reducing portfolio volatility
Replies: 25
Views: 2939

Re: The cost of reducing portfolio volatility

Vineviz, This is an important topic for me so I'm trying to understand what you're suggesting. The main advantage of an equity-heavy portfolio has been the higher rate of return, both expected and realized. Let's use the 60/40 as example. It's not Sharpe-optimal I'm sure. Are you saying investors sh...
by NoRegret
Tue Jun 26, 2018 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is day trading profitable?
Replies: 36
Views: 3968

Re: Is day trading profitable?

OP, Check out https://vantagepointtrading.com/whats-the-day-trading-success-rate-the-thorough-answer/ . There are some interesting statistics there. I have read "low single digit percent" success rate elsewhere. This question has been posted to Quora and EliteTrader before. My own short-term trading...
by NoRegret
Sat Jun 23, 2018 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Active can never beat Passive
Replies: 33
Views: 3879

Re: Why Active can never beat Passive

How does this scenario play against the definitions and reasoning involved in passive and active? Suppose there is an active fund that invests not only in publically traded stocks, but also in private equity. Suppose further that active funds happens, by luck or insight, to invest substantial seed ...
by NoRegret
Sat Jun 23, 2018 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Active can never beat Passive
Replies: 33
Views: 3879

Re: Why Active can never beat Passive

But aren't the "scared out passive investors" really active investors? They may be reluctant market timers? Doesn't passive mean passive all the time? 1210 The most common definition I’ve seen sums up the money in “passive” vehicles which I agree can be traded actively. For your strict definition o...
by NoRegret
Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Active can never beat Passive
Replies: 33
Views: 3879

Re: Why Active can never beat Passive

But aren't the "scared out passive investors" really active investors? They may be reluctant market timers? Doesn't passive mean passive all the time? 1210 The most common definition I’ve seen sums up the money in “passive” vehicles which I agree can be traded actively. For your strict definition o...
by NoRegret
Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Active can never beat Passive
Replies: 33
Views: 3879

Re: Why Active can never beat Passive

https://i2.wp.com/www.50yearretirement.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Practice.png https://i0.wp.com/www.50yearretirement.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Theory.png http://www.50yearretirement.com/2018/06/20/theory-vs-practice/ I'm sympathetic with OP's thesis. SPIVA records certainly don't paint a ...
by NoRegret
Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mean Reversion in Long-Term Stock Returns?
Replies: 25
Views: 2663

Re: Mean Reversion in Long-Term Stock Returns?

This would indicate that, on the scale of decades and centuries, stock returns revert to the pace of aggregate economic growth , rather than to any average quality inherent in corporate enterprise itself. In sum, we can say that the Royal and Siegel Constants of 6.6% long-term return on stocks are ...
by NoRegret
Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 79
Views: 7249

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

Also, I suspect there is some survivor-ship bias in here. If your portfolio was in German, Russian, Chinese, and Japanese stocks in the last 30's you would have had zero left. Absolutely there is survivorship bias — we only have data from those major markets that endured over the centuries. But the...
by NoRegret
Tue May 22, 2018 5:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Pimco INCOME BOND FUND PONAX beating VWIAX Wellesley ~~ too good to be true?
Replies: 26
Views: 2969

Re: Pimco INCOME BOND FUND PONAX beating VWIAX Wellesley ~~ too good to be true?

OP, I own the multi-sector closed end funds PCI and PDI where the expenses are even higher, and the performances are higher as well. For example, this is the PDI performance page from MorningStar: http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/cef/total-returns.action?t=PDI®ion=usa&culture=en_US It is ...
by NoRegret
Wed May 09, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Portfolio?
Replies: 148
Views: 23772

Re: 100% Stock Portfolio?

To the advocates of the 100% stock portfolio: I usually only hear the argument against a lower allocation. But why do you stop there? You can go beyond by leveraging your investment. So, what makes 100% not only better than 80% but also better than 120%? There is extra cost to borrowing on margin; ...
by NoRegret
Sat May 05, 2018 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing is more like poker than chess
Replies: 91
Views: 9124

Re: Investing is more like poker than chess

Willthrill, You know I love you & think your great... But I' am thinking Warren Buffett would disagree. I think WB would say investing is totality like chess. Enjoy this article... http://theconservativeincomeinvestor.com/2014/07/25/warren-buffett-built-a-perpetual-income-machine/ WB is the quintes...
by NoRegret
Sat May 05, 2018 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing is more like poker than chess
Replies: 91
Views: 9124

Re: Investing is more like poker than chess

I was expecting to see confusion about poker in this thread. The confusion over investing is an unexpected bonus, LOL. Speculation and gambling get a bad rep here. If you look at my signature, speculation carries no bad connotation with me. As for gambling, for an advantage player, the mathematical...
by NoRegret
Sat May 05, 2018 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing is more like poker than chess
Replies: 91
Views: 9124

Re: Investing is more like poker than chess

This is a fascinating topic to me, not the least since I play both chess and poker. I'm in agreement with OP's point that chess is a game of complete information but poker is not, and in that sense investing is more akin to poker. I've listened to a couple podcasts of Annie Duke's interviews. My und...
by NoRegret
Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Capital Efficiency Trumps Fees In Search For Portfolio Diversifiers
Replies: 9
Views: 1399

Re: Capital Efficiency Trumps Fees In Search For Portfolio Diversifiers

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2018/04/09/capital-efficiency-trumps-fees-in-the-search-for-portfolio-diversifiers I ran across this article while looking around AdvisorPerspectives.com. The point of the article is that cost is not what matters, it is cost per unit value added. When on...
by NoRegret
Wed Apr 18, 2018 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.
Replies: 82
Views: 10211

Re: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.

The real questions to holders of stock/bond two-asset portfolios are: Will the negative correlation between stocks and bonds continue to hold? What's the plan if they both drop as in a stagflationary environment, or a currency/bond crisis? Non-correlation isn't negative correlation. Both could drop...
by NoRegret
Wed Apr 18, 2018 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.
Replies: 82
Views: 10211

Re: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.

...The raison d'etre of CTAs (commodity trading advisors, i.e. managed futures) has always been crisis alpha... Well, look at the chart. Both the index and the category average existed in 2008-2009. What do you mean by "crisis alpha?" If you mean that they stayed level instead of plunging in 2008-2...
by NoRegret
Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.
Replies: 82
Views: 10211

Re: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.

Low correlation? First things first. If your diversifier has less return than a money market mutual fund , it is going to drag down your return so much that it is almost impossible for any low correlation effect to offset it. Excellent thread. I'm late to the conversation. You may find these two li...
by NoRegret
Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims
Replies: 129
Views: 23227

Re: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims

https://www.markovprocesses.com/blog/endowments/yale-endowment-a-levered-60-40/ I didn't see anyone posting this link, so I'll. In summary, it shows Yale's performance was similar to a 60/40 with 50% leverage. That said, I think it's difficult to implement in practice -- not that Yale doesn't have ...
by NoRegret
Wed Dec 20, 2017 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quite a few people I know in real life that normally don't mess with finances have brought up investing in bitcoin
Replies: 74
Views: 8402

Re: Quite a few people I know in real life that normally don't mess with finances have brought up investing in bitcoin

Quite a few of the people I know in my friend circle have all of a sudden come out saying that they just started investing in bitcoin and want me to join the train. I have little interest in doing so as I have my own investments I do with vanguard. Am I wrong or ill informed to pass on this bitcoin...
by NoRegret
Sat Dec 16, 2017 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 191
Views: 23440

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

[quote=WanderingDoc post_id=3666564 time=<a href="tel:1513390969">1513390969</a> user_id=123788] [quote=supaflix post_id=3665748 time=<a href="tel:1513356519">1513356519</a> user_id=49820] 75,000 sometime in 2018. I'll add more depth to this prediction. BTC is about to go parabolic as we have reach...
by NoRegret
Sat Dec 16, 2017 2:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 191
Views: 23440

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Long time reader, first time poster. In fact, I registered in order to post an entry in this poll. $60K on Jan 11, 2018 The range is $40-100K, +/- 8 days. I consider the 2nd half of the range more likely. My price target is not that outlandish compared with others but the timing probably is. I consi...