Search found 87 matches

by NoRegret
Fri Aug 07, 2020 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PSA: gold
Replies: 63
Views: 5473

Re: PSA: gold

Speaking as someone with a sizable allocation to PMs I’m seeing a lot of pro-gold posts lately. Note it won’t be out of character for gold to pull back from its old high. FWIW I trimmed my miner positions this week and plan to do so again early next. Don’t be one of those who buy at $1900 and sell ...
by NoRegret
Tue Aug 04, 2020 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Fund vs Gold Fund
Replies: 77
Views: 3084

Re: TIPS Fund vs Gold Fund

Just take a careful look at past behavior. The thing to be clear on is that the behavior is not similar at all . They are not two somewhat different flavors of the same thing, they are different things. Source https://imgur.com/GwCrxdj.png The Vanguard TIPS fund (red) is based on TIPS that are dire...
by NoRegret
Tue Aug 04, 2020 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 95
Views: 4559

Re: Gold continues to soar!

Trading gods don’t look kindly to hubris such as this.

Best of luck to you.
by NoRegret
Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you adjusting your REIT Allocation?
Replies: 69
Views: 5544

Re: Are you adjusting your REIT Allocation?

My current allocation is 60% equities (40% US / 20% INTL) 35% Bonds (MUNI / BND) 5% REIT My rebalance "band" is telling me to add more to REIT. However looking at the Covid impact on commercial real estate, I'm wondering if I should shrink my current REIT allocation smaller. I'm not asking to specu...
by NoRegret
Thu Jul 30, 2020 2:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you adjusting your REIT Allocation?
Replies: 69
Views: 5544

Re: Are you adjusting your REIT Allocation?

My current allocation is 60% equities (40% US / 20% INTL) 35% Bonds (MUNI / BND) 5% REIT My rebalance "band" is telling me to add more to REIT. However looking at the Covid impact on commercial real estate, I'm wondering if I should shrink my current REIT allocation smaller. I'm not asking to specu...
by NoRegret
Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm not getting why all the love for gold. here's why.
Replies: 87
Views: 4545

Re: I'm not getting why all the love for gold. here's why.

So with the news showing people (some, not all) are ga ga for Gold, I started asking myself why? Has the return been so much better than stocks (in aggregate)? For the year to date, sure (looks like it's up 50%). But we're talking over a 7 month period of time. Is that long term thinking? Nope. We ...
by NoRegret
Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm not getting why all the love for gold. here's why.
Replies: 87
Views: 4545

Re: I'm not getting why all the love for gold. here's why.

A few years ago Warren Buffett explained his thoughts on gold in an annual shareholder letter. Very beneficial and educational to read. Regardless what WB have said about gold he bought silver, a lot of it, at one point. Granted silver is different from gold — you need to dig a bigger hole for the ...
by NoRegret
Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?
Replies: 161
Views: 8461

Re: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?

Inflation: 2% 30 yr bond: 1.3% Don't be a Bond Speculator; be a Gold Investor. In long bond’s defense, it’s negatively correlated to equities — generally and for now, and has positive nominal carry, so is still very valuable. Inflation, when it picks up, will be a worry, but not yet. By my reckonin...
by NoRegret
Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?
Replies: 161
Views: 8461

Re: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?

International esp EM decoupling is something on my radar. I'm curious what you mean by this. Do you think Emerging Markets stock returns will differ significantly from ex-US Developed Markets? No I meant international and in particular EM equities may diverge further from US. Not sure how I would a...
by NoRegret
Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PSA: gold
Replies: 63
Views: 5473

PSA: gold

Speaking as someone with a sizable allocation to PMs I’m seeing a lot of pro-gold posts lately. Note it won’t be out of character for gold to pull back from its old high. FWIW I trimmed my miner positions this week and plan to do so again early next. Don’t be one of those who buy at $1900 and sell a...
by NoRegret
Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?
Replies: 161
Views: 8461

Re: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?

Inflation: 2% 30 yr bond: 1.3% Don't be a Bond Speculator; be a Gold Investor. In long bond’s defense, it’s negatively correlated to equities — generally and for now, and has positive nominal carry, so is still very valuable. Inflation, when it picks up, will be a worry, but not yet. By my reckonin...
by NoRegret
Sat Jul 25, 2020 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Parity: When Stocks "Zig," What is the Best "Zag"?
Replies: 31
Views: 1732

Re: Risk Parity: When Stocks "Zig," What is the Best "Zag"?

I can see how total bond, treasuries, etc perform with a stock portfolio of different allocations in portfolio visualizer, but would be nice to see how total bond / treasuries perform only when stocks are in a downturn. Any thoughts/insight on this? https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=...
by NoRegret
Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?
Replies: 161
Views: 8461

Re: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?

Why are you thinking about gold after it ran up 40% to 50% to $1800+? Where were you last year when gold was below $1300? If gold is so good why not silver? Silver is still cheap and you could make very similar arguments about silver vs gold. Actually, you can’t make similar arguments between the t...
by NoRegret
Sun Jul 19, 2020 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS/LMP Concerns
Replies: 41
Views: 1718

Re: TIPS/LMP Concerns

I have established a liability duration matching portfolio (LDI) and allocated TIPS funds (LTPZ and FIPDX) in duration matched amounts to give me the income stream to fund retirement (26 years) (Many thanks to bobk, vineviz, Nisiprius, CUlater, FIREchief, bigskyguy, and others who have educated me ...
by NoRegret
Mon Jul 13, 2020 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Options Trading Basic Questions
Replies: 5
Views: 460

Re: Options Trading Basic Questions

I'm not an options trader nor do I plan to be. Therefore, I've not read up on it. Today when I looked at news for AMZN (which I always do since I own a lot of it), there was a twitter post from Greg Harmon. He runs some investment firm. I wonder if anyone can tell me generally what it means. Is he ...
by NoRegret
Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The landscape of diversification opportunities
Replies: 15
Views: 1072

Re: The landscape of diversification opportunities

I addressed that here , leading off with a quotation by John C. Bogle on diversification. Diversification isn't a be-all and end-all. Diversification of stocks is only valuable if you are convinced that the diversifier has had a return and a volatility that are somewhat similar to those of stocks. ...
by NoRegret
Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Won’t 2020-2030 Stock Returns Look Like 2009-2019?
Replies: 35
Views: 3093

Re: Won’t 2020-2030 Stock Returns Look Like 2009-2019?

Will the “nobody knows nothin’” crowd care to share their investment horizon and positioning? If your are truly unsure about which version of economic future will pan out, how is your portfolio structured to take advantage of different economic regimes? I believe what one actually does with one’s mo...
by NoRegret
Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 381
Views: 55950

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

For the longest period for which data is available using Portfolio Visualizer 1978-2020: Portfolio 1: Golden Butterfly (20% TSM, 20% SCV, 20% Long Treasuries, 20% Short Treasuries, 20% Gold) Portfolio 2: Golden Butterfly - No Gold (20% TSM, 20% SCV, 30% Long Treasuries, 30% Short Treasuries) Portfo...
by NoRegret
Sun Jun 14, 2020 3:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy
Replies: 200
Views: 16432

Re: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy

When bond yields drop, the solution is even lower yielding cash? Makes sense. But, although Clements does not mention this, that's not actually true now depending what you're comparing between 'cash' and [safe] 'bonds'. The highest rate saving accounts or short term no-withdrawal-penalty CD's yield...
by NoRegret
Sun Jun 14, 2020 2:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy
Replies: 200
Views: 16432

Re: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy

Bonds have intrinsic value. They are an investment. Gold is a shiny metal with no increase in utility. It is pure speculation. Gold has intrinsic value as well; it's used in many industrial applications. The bottom line is that both have an expected real return of zero. Yes, gold has historically b...
by NoRegret
Sat Jun 13, 2020 11:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy
Replies: 200
Views: 16432

Re: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy

Bonds have intrinsic value. They are an investment. Gold is a shiny metal with no increase in utility. It is pure speculation. Gold has intrinsic value as well; it's used in many industrial applications. The bottom line is that both have an expected real return of zero. Yes, gold has historically b...
by NoRegret
Sat Jun 06, 2020 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odd Lots: Why Passive Investing Might Be Distorting The Market (Podcast)
Replies: 38
Views: 3756

Re: Odd Lots: Why Passive Investing Might Be Distorting The Market (Podcast)

Odd Lots: Why Passive Investing Might Be Distorting The Market (Podcast) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2020-02-07/why-passive-investing-might-be-distorting-the-market-podcast Over the last decade or so, we’ve seen an incredible rise in so-called passive investing. While definitions differ ov...
by NoRegret
Sat Jun 06, 2020 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any market timers cashing out soon?
Replies: 74
Views: 8032

Re: Are any market timers cashing out soon?

This past rally has solidified that nobody knows less about the market than I do. I'm buy and hold (and buy some more) and will continue to do so. Anyone going to cash out or move into a more conservative allocation? Reduced risk asset % around SPX 2900. Bought some puts at the end of Friday. Poten...
by NoRegret
Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand stock buybacks
Replies: 169
Views: 9567

Re: I don't understand stock buybacks

Buybacks are normally executed at VWAP by an investment bank -- so the instantaneous impact to stock price is minimal. I think you misunderstand what Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) means and is used for. It is the backwards looking average price over a period of time - be it hours, days, or w...
by NoRegret
Sun May 31, 2020 10:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: OTM Puts on long dated treasury/treasury futures
Replies: 5
Views: 402

Re: OTM Puts on long dated treasury/treasury futures

I am thinking of protecting my portfolio from a significant increase in inflation 3-5 years from now (idea being that all the recent government monetary actions will finally catch up to us someday in the form of higher inflation). Does anyone have any experience in buying OTM the money puts on 10yr...
by NoRegret
Sun May 31, 2020 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand stock buybacks
Replies: 169
Views: 9567

Re: I don't understand stock buybacks

Buybacks mean share holders get a bigger slice of the future growth, but do nothing to the current stock price. Please show data to back this up. I don't believe you're correct at all. If a company announces a buyback plan, the share price goes up. Full stop. And it makes perfect sense, because the...
by NoRegret
Sun May 31, 2020 8:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: OTM Puts on long dated treasury/treasury futures
Replies: 5
Views: 402

Re: OTM Puts on long dated treasury/treasury futures

I am thinking of protecting my portfolio from a significant increase in inflation 3-5 years from now (idea being that all the recent government monetary actions will finally catch up to us someday in the form of higher inflation). Does anyone have any experience in buying OTM the money puts on 10yr...
by NoRegret
Sat May 23, 2020 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand stock buybacks
Replies: 169
Views: 9567

Re: I don't understand stock buybacks

I think perhaps some the confusio0n around buybacks is that there are effectively a number of things going on at once that may cloud how they are perceived. I think it helps to think about it as a three step process: 1) Company buys shares of their stock 2) Company distributes those shares to remai...
by NoRegret
Sat May 23, 2020 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 7367

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy

Assess has the moral high ground in this “debate”. I think exactly the opposite. Asness seems totally fake to me. He is usually filled with a sense of superiority and contempt for other human beings, but since he can't use that tone much in this exchange (for a start his funds have clearly done ver...
by NoRegret
Sat May 23, 2020 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 7367

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy

In the last couple of days there's been a Twitter exchange between Taleb and Asness covered in the media. Taleb seems to have thrashed Asness (and in tweets this morning Fama and MPT too). So does this put into question the Bogleheads philosphy of risk management? Can someone explain in simple term...
by NoRegret
Mon May 18, 2020 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15936

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

Point is that if people were withdrawing en masse from the stock market to fund their retirement, historic returns would have been lower. You're overlooking the fact that in order for people in times past to have a portfolio to withdraw from that they would have first had to make contributions to b...
by NoRegret
Sat May 16, 2020 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15936

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

2. What people did with money withdrawn from the stock market in years past is completely irrelevant. Point is that if people were withdrawing en masse from the stock market to fund their retirement, historic returns would have been lower. You're overlooking the fact that in order for people in tim...
by NoRegret
Sat May 16, 2020 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15936

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

Elroy Dimson forecasts a 2% real return for the global 60/40. https://i.ibb.co/Rc5Svvn/068-ED8-D7-FE6-B-4925-B930-ADAF09-A7925-A.jpg Ah yes, we’ve seen how accurate these predictions have been in the past!!!!! The stock market has benefited a great deal from multiple expansion and corporate profits...
by NoRegret
Sat May 16, 2020 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15936

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

2. What people did with money withdrawn from the stock market in years past is completely irrelevant. Point is that if people were withdrawing en masse from the stock market to fund their retirement, historic returns would have been lower. Today we know that net fund flows have been negative for a ...
by NoRegret
Sat May 16, 2020 1:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15936

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

Yes, a 50 year retirement is supported almost 90% of the time with a 75-25 portfolio using a 4% wr. Please let that sink in. What are you concerned about with my above statement? Do you have other data to show us as a basis for your concern? "Yes, a 50 year retirement is supported almost 90% of the...
by NoRegret
Fri May 15, 2020 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Expected Return" ?
Replies: 44
Views: 2693

Re: "Expected Return" ?

It should be obvious that investors do indeed pick investments according to the return they expect to get (in some vague partly mathematical sense). What is the return you expect to get from US equities? What is the expected value of the probability distribution of the return of US equities over th...
by NoRegret
Fri May 15, 2020 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Expected Return" ?
Replies: 44
Views: 2693

Re: "Expected Return" ?

2) On the mathematical description alone, "expected return" is clearly not the best way to base investment since, per above, a 3x leveraged ETF, especially extra leveraged through margin, will have an insanely high "expected return" - except the "return to expect" is you will go bust (or possibly b...
by NoRegret
Fri May 15, 2020 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Expected Return" ?
Replies: 44
Views: 2693

Re: "Expected Return" ?

A casino offers you an investment plan. It works like this: Every year, on Jan 1, there is a 90% chance they will double whatever you have invested in the plan, and a 10% chance that they will take all of it, leaving you nothing. Is this a good investment? Well, the expected value of this plan afte...
by NoRegret
Fri May 15, 2020 7:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Stop me from market timing!
Replies: 36
Views: 2533

Re: Stop me from market timing!

jimkinny wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 2:48 pm
If you know more than the rest of the market then it would be a good time to try and time the market.

What do you know that isn't known already? What is unknown unknown that you know?
VIX > 30 is the market’s way of saying it doesn’t know anything.
by NoRegret
Tue May 12, 2020 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Imperfect market timing still works -- if you stick with it
Replies: 151
Views: 12818

Re: Imperfect market timing still works -- if you stick with it

Article examines the outcome of rules-based market timing and finds that it produces higher returns than buy-and-hold even if you miss the mark getting in and out by as much as one year. This outcome results primarily from avoiding at least some of the losses from large market declines of 20% or gr...
by NoRegret
Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?
Replies: 110
Views: 8012

Re: If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now?

This is question for Timers only, NOT for buy and hold folks.. If you believing in Timing the market, Would you reduce equity allocation now? Some indicators used in timing models. Yes, some of these are lagging indicators. - Unemployment rate heading to 20% - Consumer sentiment is in the dump - Vo...
by NoRegret
Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Economics/life of Full time RV ownership while working?
Replies: 4
Views: 735

Re: Economics/life of Full time RV ownership while working?

No personal experience but check out
https://wheelingit.us

& digital nomads in general. Just google “digital nomad rv”.

Cheers,
NR
by NoRegret
Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 123324

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Most of those who have been around here long know that I'm a trend follower. Yes, this means that I time the market, but I use a carefully researched system to do so. It is entirely objective; there is no subjective element as to what I should do (i.e. no feelings or guesses). Yes, there were certa...
by NoRegret
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for App to Analyze Past Fund Performance
Replies: 6
Views: 510

Re: Looking for App to Analyze Past Fund Performance

https://www.buyupside.com/stockreturncalculator/stockreturncalcinput.php Unfortunately this one doesn't work for ETFs or MFs. http://www.idacorpinc.com/investor-relations/stock-information/total-return-calculator This one seems to work. I can't vouch for its accuracy. The "adjusted close" data from ...
by NoRegret
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset
Replies: 66
Views: 4255

Re: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset

c) The coin-flip adds risk without adding any return, and reduces the risk-adjusted return for both of you. P: random variable (portfolio) B: random variable (bet). Var (P + B) = Var ( P ) + 2 * Cov ( P,B) + Var ( B) By the design of the problem, Cov ( P,B) = 0 {let's say we can muster up an iPhone...
by NoRegret
Sun Oct 07, 2018 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses
Replies: 150
Views: 22047

Re: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses

FYI. I kept some physical gold too. I am prepared. What percentages of your assets are in physical gold and how are you safe keeping it? Assuming minimum at 10%, what is the footprint of the gold? Say $1.5M in total assets, so $150K in physical gold, about 3KG in gold, about 5.5^3 cubic centimeter!...
by NoRegret
Fri Sep 28, 2018 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't I read about this strategy more? [12-month moving average, momentum]
Replies: 110
Views: 16164

Re: Why don't I read about this strategy more? It seems to beat everything else

OP, You can try it with leverage on buy signal :happy I'm only half tongue in cheek. I've long advocated that if the benchmark is buy-and-hold, then the timing strategy needs to be leveraged on buy signal so as to have the same time-averaged exposure for a fair comparison. Here's a link to Charlie B...
by NoRegret
Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any active forums/BBS grouping up non-Bogleheads?
Replies: 17
Views: 2116

Re: Is there any active forums/BBS grouping up non-Bogleheads?

r/wallstreetbets :oops: wsb can indeed be highly entertaining /s On Reddit r/investing, r/options, r/securityanalysis, r/fatfire, r/financialindependence, r/personalfinance General investing and PF: http://www.early-retirement.org/ https://forum.earlyretirementextreme.com/ https://forum.mrmoneymust...
by NoRegret
Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 75
Views: 6905

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

willthrill81, From that graph alone I would say stocks are a little higher than fairly valued, may be expensive even, but not terribly so. However, other valuation metrics like P/B, P/C, P/FCF (this one may be ok), EV/EBITA and total market cap/GDP show stocks to be richly valued. From your past pos...