Search found 113 matches

by 1nv35t
Sat May 12, 2018 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Often Do Stocks & Bonds Suffer Concurrent Losses?
Replies: 31
Views: 3279

Re: How Often Do Stocks & Bonds Suffer Concurrent Losses?

Stocks lose on average 1 year out of 3. Bonds 1 out of 5. Since they are essentially uncorrelated, the chance of a simultaneous loss is 1 year out of 15, which is close to the value observed. Forget the losers, the winners more than compensate even if its over multiple years rather than a single ye...
by 1nv35t
Sat May 12, 2018 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 11480

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

According to analysis by Kitces and Pfau, they found that the optimum strategy, based on Monte Carlo analysis of historic returns, was to start a 30 year retirement with a 30/70 AA, then slowly increase stock exposure so that after 30 years, the AA would be 70/30. I believe that the results would b...
by 1nv35t
Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Often Do Stocks & Bonds Suffer Concurrent Losses?
Replies: 31
Views: 3279

Re: How Often Do Stocks & Bonds Suffer Concurrent Losses?

Stocks lose on average 1 year out of 3. Bonds 1 out of 5. Since they are essentially uncorrelated, the chance of a simultaneous loss is 1 year out of 15, which is close to the value observed. Forget the losers, the winners more than compensate even if its over multiple years rather than a single ye...
by 1nv35t
Tue Apr 03, 2018 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 12457

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

4) that the international exposure from owning US companies is in all meaningful ways the same as the exposure from owning non US based companies Excepting many companies hedge their foreign currency "risk". And at times certain foreign currencies can be a reward. Also you diversify domestic politi...
by 1nv35t
Sat Mar 31, 2018 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?
Replies: 148
Views: 17147

Re: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?

100% in 10 year treasury, or 50/50 STT/LTT barbell, or 50/50 stock/gold Or a blend of some of each of those. When paired as a 'bond' 50/50 with stocks broadly provides comparable rewards Whether you include gold or not is a matter of personal preference and in consideration of whether its more cost...
by 1nv35t
Thu Mar 15, 2018 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR Players: How have you been spending in the past 9 years?
Replies: 13
Views: 1906

Re: SWR Players: How have you been spending in the past 9 years?

Sheepdog wrote:
Thu Mar 15, 2018 10:16 am
Withdrawal percentage
2017 4.06
2016 1.93
2015 3.51
2014 5.12
2013 4.28
2012 3.18
2011 7.52
2010 4.89
2009 3.11
Average 9 year 4.18%
All spending needs come from savings and Social Security only.

Okay, you have mine. What does that tell you?
Tells me that you keep much better records than I do :)
by 1nv35t
Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Illusion of "The Long-Term Average" in Investing
Replies: 61
Views: 8682

Re: The Illusion of "The Long-Term Average" in Investing

Isaac Newton pegged the Pound to gold whilst he was Master of the Royal Mint. Subsequently across the 18th and 19th centuries there was broadly zero inflation, but considerable interim volatility around that (inflation and deflation spikes in volatility tended to cluster). Investors could secure 2% ...
by 1nv35t
Sat Mar 03, 2018 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 316
Views: 37610

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

if not the largest, economies in the world US based investors should be okay. Late 1960's to 1990 and the US economy contracted down from 75% to near 25% (by eye) https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/65/Country_equity_capitalization.jpg/800px-Country_equity_capitalization.jpg whil...
by 1nv35t
Sat Mar 03, 2018 4:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 316
Views: 37610

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

I'm reading with amusement the argument that a 2% withdrawal rate is too high/not safe. Perhaps that IS true. Probably not though. But if you accept that a 2% WR is not S, you might as well quit investing altogether and live for today. Because that type of thinking is a bet on doomsday. I believe D...
by 1nv35t
Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting Article on ETF Security Lending
Replies: 6
Views: 647

Re: Interesting Article on ETF Security Lending

It can lower costs, but not so sure about driving them negative, at least not without additional risks being involved. Security lending is often a means to be more tax efficient. If for instance a fund has offices in two countries where one can receive dividends more tax efficiently than the other, ...
by 1nv35t
Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 316
Views: 37610

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

People are arguing about assertions that 1) using dividend rate is a logical way to set a safe withdrawal rate If you used the prevailing dividend yield value as your initial SWR value (perhaps also using that as a guide as to when you'd accumulated enough in order to retire) - that didn't always w...
by 1nv35t
Thu Mar 01, 2018 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 316
Views: 37610

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

But once people start going into discussions where 2% is not safe, I sort of lose interest As you're not interested I'll be brief, as a suggestion that you should perhaps take more interest. The financial sector is the worlds largest and richest sector. Factor in costs, taxes, behaviour and for the...
by 1nv35t
Thu Mar 01, 2018 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 316
Views: 37610

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

If you only want to withdraw 2% or less of your portfolio, it doesn't matter how you do it -- dividends only or a total-return strategy Does matter. Single stocks can go broke, so we tend to diversify to reduce that risk, however even entire market indexes can go broke, diversifying across the enti...
by 1nv35t
Mon Feb 26, 2018 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman Sachs says...
Replies: 13
Views: 2070

Re: Goldman Sachs says...

Goldman Says Stocks May Plunge 25% If 10-Year Yield Hits 4.5% As would 30 year Treasury bond prices. Maybe the yield curve will just flatten, as it has been doing. Where 0 to 10 year yields increase towards the 3% level. Maybe even invert, 4% at the shorter dated end, decaying down to a more flat l...
by 1nv35t
Sat Feb 24, 2018 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What exactly happened in Japan...and can it happen here?
Replies: 52
Views: 10863

Re: What exactly happened in Japan...and can it happen here?

During the 1970's/1980's Japan did exceptionally well http://images.investorshub.advfn.com/images/uploads/2014/9/29/clnwmcountry-weights.jpg eating a lot into US global market share with great technological products (walkman's, motor cycles, cars, hi-fi's ...etc. etc.). A number of large companies d...
by 1nv35t
Sat Feb 24, 2018 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 316
Views: 37610

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

Which presumes 4% is actually safe, no one is planning more than 30 years in retirement, and they have no desires to attempt to insure a legacy bequeath. Which is to say the reason many people gravitate toward the spend the dividend philosophy is to remediate the three mentioned points. SWR average...
by 1nv35t
Fri Feb 23, 2018 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Stocks and Bonds Fall
Replies: 24
Views: 1732

Re: When Stocks and Bonds Fall

The 4% SWR suggests that historic peak to trough still produced a reasonable outcome in the worst case. Yes on average rewards were better, and trough to peak rewards were great. Assuming the next x years fall within those limits and are not a outlier compared to history then just accept that given ...
by 1nv35t
Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Computing a Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) concisely
Replies: 21
Views: 3896

Re: Computing a Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) concisely

You calculated the PWR of a portfolio beginning in 1986. That only works for 1986 and not other years. The PWR is startpoint specific. I think what you want to do is iterate through all N-year periods in your data set, and calculate the individual SWR/PWR for each period. Then you calculate the min...
by 1nv35t
Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Computing a Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) concisely
Replies: 21
Views: 3896

Re: Computing a Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) concisely

I have a real gain progression (based on actual (UK) values since 1896) that runs ... 1.0000 1.0264 1.1050 1.2372 1.3126 1.3745 1.5144 1.5433 1.4197 1.5788 1.7120 1.7363 1.3798 1.5769 1.6836 1.5991 1.5784 1.5575 1.4704 1.4824 1.4003 1.2707 0.8952 0.8861 1.0969 0.9989 1.0310 1.3768 1.5341 1.6632 1.94...
by 1nv35t
Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In plain English, please explain what was VIX, what happened to it and why?
Replies: 68
Views: 6783

Re: In plain English, please explain what was VIX, what happened to it and why?

Personally, I think we need to seriously question whether there is any societal value to new financial products that exist primarily to facilitate gambling. Average stocks are what, 1.7 debt to equity ratio (ballpark guess). Leveraged. Markets offer/enable access to such leveraged products to the r...
by 1nv35t
Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In plain English, please explain what was VIX, what happened to it and why?
Replies: 68
Views: 6783

Re: In plain English, please explain what was VIX, what happened to it and why?

VIX is simply a gambling device. Like Bitcoin, it has nothing produced from it, no dividends, no real redeeming qualities whatsoever. Treasury bills are like buying a farm and leaving the land idle. Nothing produced from it, might rise in value with inflation when the interest rate is considered, b...
by 1nv35t
Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In plain English, please explain what was VIX, what happened to it and why?
Replies: 68
Views: 6783

Re: In plain English, please explain what was VIX, what happened to it and why?

Now because wall street is wall street, they have made products that you can trade to speculate on prices of VIX. The ticker VXX tracks the value of VIX itself (that is, VXX should be $10 in value if VIX is 10). If VIX rose from 10 to 12, holding VXX will make you $2. There was also another product...
by 1nv35t
Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR — Can You Include Real Estate as Part of Your Portfolio
Replies: 24
Views: 1954

Re: SWR — Can You Include Real Estate as Part of Your Portfolio

If you plan a ladder using present day value i.e. assuming assets and spending might rise with inflation on average, then there's no harm in including potential liquidation of part of your home value as part of that. 60 year old that anticipates living to 85 and $40,000/year spending = $1M. Pension ...
by 1nv35t
Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 289
Views: 44940

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

I have friends that bought and managed apartments in a Big Ten college town for 30 years or so. They sold their properties and retired a few years ago and their entire portfolio is in CDs. They sleep like babies and most likely have plenty of money for the rest of their lives. They would never, eve...
by 1nv35t
Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's portfolio: does the fact that SC are expensive cause a problem?
Replies: 37
Views: 3841

Re: Larry Swedroe's portfolio: does the fact that SC are expensive cause a problem?

Large cap index are top bounded. Mid and small can feed in/out of both the top and bottom. At the extreme top of LC a single stock can be weighted 10%, or more for single sectors. Such concentration is a risk such that LC can lag. That LC and SCV are at different stages in their cycles may tempt you...
by 1nv35t
Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?
Replies: 120
Views: 14873

Re: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?

I wouldn’t take specific comparisons too literally. The LP is more of a concept: lower equity exposure, all highest expected return equity classes, bigger helping of bonds. When he made the initial comparisons, he was intentionally looking for the back tested combination of S&P 500/bonds that would...
by 1nv35t
Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Funds without dividends
Replies: 17
Views: 1821

Re: Funds without dividends

You could obtain the list of stocks in your favorite index, sort by dividend yield, and remove anything greater than 0. Then buy those. You can use one of the platforms that allows you to trade a basket in one step, like M1 or Motif, or you could use one of the perpetual free trade brokers like Mer...
by 1nv35t
Sat Feb 10, 2018 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Funds without dividends
Replies: 17
Views: 1821

Re: Funds without dividends

Are there any mutual funds that are entirely devoted to solid companies that don't pay dividends, so the fund itself won't generate taxable dividends. Wish they (non dividend) were more popular for those of us that see dividends/regular income as a cost/tax risk rather than a benefit. Slicing your ...
by 1nv35t
Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inverse VIX ETN down 80% after hours
Replies: 42
Views: 5949

Re: Inverse VIX ETN down 80% after hours

I believe small cap value has had a longer term characteristic of the order 1.2 times the yearly average price move and 1.2 times the standard deviation of TSM. In effect SCV might be considered a form of 1.2x leveraged TSM holding. SSO provides 2x, SPXL 3x, XIV 5x (of sorts). If you targeted 36% ye...
by 1nv35t
Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inverse VIX ETN down 80% after hours
Replies: 42
Views: 5949

Re: Inverse VIX ETN down 80% after hours

Some might rather hold yearly rebalanced 6/94 short volatility/SHY than 30/70 VISVX/SHY and accept that in some years short volatility might rise 150%+ (as per 2012 and 2017 (and a +100% in 2013)), in others lose -100%.
by 1nv35t
Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inverse VIX ETN down 80% after hours
Replies: 42
Views: 5949

Re: Short VIX ETN (XIV), $1.62 billion in assets, will likely be liquidated tomorrow at $4.22 (-96% loss in one day)

SVXY, the ETF version of XIV, was down -86% today including after hours trading. For anyone who was considering XIV or SVXY or anything VIX-related as a buy and hold (and there were some threads here in the last couple of years suggesting using XIV and TLT or BIL to substitute for SPY to take bette...
by 1nv35t
Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When diversification doesn’t work
Replies: 33
Views: 3182

Re: When diversification doesn’t work

During 2008-2009 someone in Bogleheads posted, I should take the time to find the posting, that all that diversification means is that in a crisis you can watch all your investments plummeting at different speeds. If there was a Boglehead's Hall of Fame for best posts, this quote should be in it. W...
by 1nv35t
Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 694
Views: 159345

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

why Ray Dalio does not include cash in the All Seasons portfolio IIRC Ray uses a timing mechanism that throws him (partially or fully) out to 'Safe' at times (market turmoil/depressions) and where that safe is something like 10% gold, 20% Short term Treasuries, 30% T-Bills, 40% TIPS. i.e. "cash". M...
by 1nv35t
Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: VPN for account security
Replies: 12
Views: 2002

Re: VPN for account security

I'm more of a buy and hold investor, so just log in once/week to make sure things all look as they should. To do that I install a fresh copy of the latest OpenBSD (takes around 5 minutes) and then install the latest version of a browser, no addons or anything else ... and then use that to go directl...
by 1nv35t
Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are dividends really the same as capital gains?
Replies: 18
Views: 2950

Re: Are dividends really the same as capital gains?

Some might like a cash deposit account that posted them the interest every quarter, and charged a fee for each deposit made. Others might prefer that interest to just automatically be added to their accounts balance and draw money from that as and when needed.
by 1nv35t
Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are dividends really the same as capital gains?
Replies: 18
Views: 2950

Re: Are dividends really the same as capital gains?

I disagree. We're considering someone who compares self-created dividends to dividend paying stock. I think it's fair to say that these types of investors are an extreme minority -- far too little to affect price in any meaningful way. People who care about cash flow buy dividend paying stocks. I w...
by 1nv35t
Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold IRA with pretty low costs
Replies: 16
Views: 1739

Re: Gold IRA with pretty low costs

I don't think I would trust any company to hold physical gold for me. I don't have any, but if I did it would be in a safe. IIRC Australia has confiscation/compulsory purchase laws of some type already passed such that to invoke such action doesn't require its Parliamentary approval to do so. Can't...
by 1nv35t
Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold IRA with pretty low costs
Replies: 16
Views: 1739

Re: Gold IRA with pretty low costs

I wanted to get into gold 5 years ago around $1700 and oz. I chickened out and bought silver coins instead. As it turns out, both were equally horrible investments except I can sell the silver coins to craigslist collectors who will pay more than any dealer. Oh, gold is now right about $1300, so ta...
by 1nv35t
Thu Feb 01, 2018 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold IRA with pretty low costs
Replies: 16
Views: 1739

Re: Gold IRA with pretty low costs

Gold has been a terrible speculation for a loooong time It's actually better in a taxable account because you can deduct the losses... . . What is the benefit to owning gold as an asset I don't like many assets that others might hold, but I don't go around posting negativity in those threads. If yo...
by 1nv35t
Wed Jan 31, 2018 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds
Replies: 87
Views: 9175

Re: Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds

bloom2708 wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:47 pm
Nobody Knows Nothing.
Everyone knows Something.
Nobody knows Everyone.
Everyone knows nobody knows nothing
by 1nv35t
Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dalio says bonds have entered a bear market
Replies: 98
Views: 11963

Re: Dalio says bonds have entered a bear market

3funder wrote:
Fri Jan 26, 2018 12:29 pm
Fair enough. No gold here either. Yuck.
TIPS/LTT barbell instead of a bond bullet, or what about a even wider barbell of stocks and gold?
Image
Yuck!
by 1nv35t
Fri Jan 26, 2018 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question to Taylor and others regarding bucket approach in retirement
Replies: 54
Views: 4492

Re: Question to Taylor and others regarding bucket approach in retirement

I have $2.2M in investable assets and I retired this year at 62. Plan on taking SS at 70, and have no work pension, so I’m living off my net egg. No debt, and own my home. Would like to keep growing my investments to give to charities. If I estimate $60K annual expenses, that is $600K in bonds and ...
by 1nv35t
Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question to Taylor and others regarding bucket approach in retirement
Replies: 54
Views: 4492

Re: Question to Taylor and others regarding bucket approach in retirement

Christine has said that the buckets can be rebalanced at any time. Therefore, the bucket approach is nothing new and nothing different. We all divide our money into stocks, bonds, and cash anyway. I think you are fundamentally asking how much to keep in safe investments, and that is a personal deci...
by 1nv35t
Fri Jan 26, 2018 5:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Term Use Of A Leveraged ETF
Replies: 32
Views: 3756

Re: Long Term Use Of A Leveraged ETF

http://beta.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/ulpix/quote.html ProFunds has had a mutual fund whose precost goal is to provide double the return of the S&P500 each day. The start date was Nov 26/1997, so it has a bit more than a 20 year history, which includes two bad bear markets. Assume $10K at the star...
by 1nv35t
Fri Jan 26, 2018 5:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question to Taylor and others regarding bucket approach in retirement
Replies: 54
Views: 4492

Re: Question to Taylor and others regarding bucket approach in retirement

A simplistic version of how I planned things out was to construct a spreadsheet with my current age ... up to age 85 and my anticipated floor spending needs for each year (not adjusted for inflation as my assumption is that safe bonds will pace inflation, so a present day value used for each rung). ...
by 1nv35t
Thu Jan 25, 2018 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Term Use Of A Leveraged ETF
Replies: 32
Views: 3756

Re: Long Term Use Of A Leveraged ETF

See this link/version of portfoliovisualizer and check out the CAGR, maxDD etc. figures.
by 1nv35t
Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Term Use Of A Leveraged ETF
Replies: 32
Views: 3756

Re: Long Term Use Of A Leveraged ETF

Leveraged ETF's can be useful to rebalance without having to sell bonds and your brokers margin rates are prohibitive or simply unavailable. If you're locked into a 1 year bond and a need to rebalance occurs to increase stock exposure from $90,000 to $100,000 that you hold in SPY, and you have $100,...
by 1nv35t
Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kitces article: A cash bucket in retirement? Nope
Replies: 150
Views: 13860

Re: Kitces article: A cash bucket in retirement? Nope

For non-US stocks in taxable, I take the foreign tax credit. The foreign taxes are lost in my Rollover IRA and Roth IRA. The Wiki discusses this and mentions that the lost taxes are minimal. The Vanguard life cycle and time cycle funds have lots of foreign securities and are expected to be used in ...
by 1nv35t
Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index
Replies: 80
Views: 17051

Re: Warren Buffett recommends putting 90% in S&P500 index fund, 10% in Bond index

So, what he's saying is, his 90/10 allocation will work just peachy for anyone with a big enough portfolio that they can live on 3-4% AWR from just the 10% bond portion . He's probably right in that, but if someone needs $40,000/yr for expenses (above SS), that 4% AWR requires $1,000,000 in just bo...