Search found 123 matches

by All Seasons
Thu Sep 19, 2019 12:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]
Replies: 242
Views: 28273

Re: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]

When Batman tells you that the world’s index funds are a bubble, we should all listen. :wink:
by All Seasons
Wed Sep 18, 2019 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best financial books for a new investor.
Replies: 15
Views: 971

Re: Best financial books for a new investor.

The Little Book of Common Sense Investing by John Bogle.

This is the starting point that I recommend to all new investors.

It's short, succinct, non-intimidating, and has all the essentials. :beer
by All Seasons
Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy being killed?
Replies: 142
Views: 15678

Re: Is the 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy being killed?

Asness has alluded to something along the lines of a traditional 60/40 strategy likely running into trouble in the future. Not "killed", but certainly hobbled. Stocks sometimes get high valuations. Bonds sometimes get high valuations. Seldom do they happen together (I think he said the current cond...
by All Seasons
Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 18165

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

Careful, guys. We’re getting off topic here.
by All Seasons
Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 290
Views: 20469

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

This along with all the gold threads in the recent past...

Every day the discussions on this board move closer and closer and closer to realizing how prudent the Permanent Portfolio is as a strategy... but we never quite seem to get there. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
by All Seasons
Mon Jul 29, 2019 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not aim for a HIGH YIELDING portfolio?
Replies: 60
Views: 5191

Re: Why not aim for a HIGH YIELDING portfolio?

A stock's price will always rise by the amount of the announced dividend leading up to the ex-dividend date. When that date passes the stock price immediately falls by the amount of the dividend. That's why I was pointing out that the argument that receiving a dividend is the same thing as selling ...
by All Seasons
Mon Jul 29, 2019 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not aim for a HIGH YIELDING portfolio?
Replies: 60
Views: 5191

Re: Why not aim for a HIGH YIELDING portfolio?

Going against the grain a bit. There is good research from outfits such as AQR demonstrating that dividend investing will generate higher returns even after taking into account taxes and factor exposure. https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=196007026117114074026075117070121000123072060031075...
by All Seasons
Mon Jul 29, 2019 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not aim for a HIGH YIELDING portfolio?
Replies: 60
Views: 5191

Re: Why not aim for a HIGH YIELDING portfolio?

Going against the grain a bit. There is good research from outfits such as AQR demonstrating that dividend investing will generate higher returns even after taking into account taxes and factor exposure. https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=1960070261171140740260751170701210001230720600310750...
by All Seasons
Sat Jul 20, 2019 7:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gold?
Replies: 137
Views: 8364

Re: Gold?

A Bloomberg column from May of this year is titled You Can Still Buy a House With Gold Bars in Vietnam . Excerpt: Vietnam may be one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, yet it’s still in the dark ages when it comes to joining the global trend toward cashless transactions. To understand why, l...
by All Seasons
Sat Jul 20, 2019 3:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gold?
Replies: 137
Views: 8364

Re: Gold?

The problem with that Buffett article is that, in my opinion, Buffett's logic is fatally flawed. He's committing the logical fallacy of the false dichotomy. He's presenting two choices as mutually exclusive when they are not mutually exclusive: "Would you rather have Pile A or Pile B?" Obviously, i...
by All Seasons
Fri Jul 19, 2019 2:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gold?
Replies: 137
Views: 8364

Re: Gold?

Like really, if even Bogle (one of the most anti-gold people out there) conceded 5% to gold, the average person shouldn't have a problem with a 10% diversifier. Let's stop being so stuck up about this.
by All Seasons
Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 172
Views: 24117

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

Adopt some risk parity and we don't have to worry about politicians embracing or not embracing MMT. :)
by All Seasons
Tue Jun 11, 2019 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 17305

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

This whole thread can be summed up most succinctly by simply saying that the behaviour of the portfolio as a whole is more important than the behaviour of any individual asset or asset class within it. I don’t think any sensible person will disagree with that. It’s a gestalt perspective. No need to ...
by All Seasons
Tue May 28, 2019 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Home Country Bias Ubiquitous
Replies: 37
Views: 4804

Re: Larry Swedroe: Home Country Bias Ubiquitous

What’s even more ubiquitous than home country bias is the laundry list of silly arguments being put forth trying to justify it. :oops:
by All Seasons
Fri May 24, 2019 1:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4 Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 4758

Re: 4 Seasons Portfolio

I see the Permanent Portfolio as the natural "starting point" for deciding asset allocation. It holds all the major asset classes with no biases towards or against any of them. Start with the Permanent Portfolio and deviate from it as you see fit based on the usual suspects: time horizon, risk toler...
by All Seasons
Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does dividend investing not work?
Replies: 174
Views: 23135

Re: Why does dividend investing not work?

All 30 stocks in the DJIA pay dividends and over 80% of the stocks in the S&P 500 pay dividends. Nuff said. The investors here who say dividends are bad and destroy value are a very very tiny minority whose views are not accepted by the vast majority of all public corporations. Nobody is saying div...
by All Seasons
Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does dividend investing not work?
Replies: 174
Views: 23135

Re: Why does dividend investing not work?

Just buy total market funds and forget about any of this rigmarole.
by All Seasons
Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone own gold?
Replies: 108
Views: 12132

Re: Does anyone own gold?

I sincerely believe that one needs exposure to gold, silver, or just commodities in general to have a really balanced portfolio. Ignore these asset classes at your peril. I believe Larry Swedroe and Ray Dalio have both written/spoken pretty substantially on these alternatives, and why it is advisab...
by All Seasons
Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone own gold?
Replies: 108
Views: 12132

Re: Does anyone own gold?

I sincerely believe that one needs exposure to gold, silver, or just commodities in general to have a really balanced portfolio. Ignore these asset classes at your peril. I believe Larry Swedroe and Ray Dalio have both written/spoken pretty substantially on these alternatives, and why it is advisabl...
by All Seasons
Fri Jan 25, 2019 6:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good camping blogs or forums?
Replies: 12
Views: 1007

Re: Good camping blogs or forums?

You're visiting OTHER forums?

You're cheating on us? :evil: :thumbsdown :?:
by All Seasons
Mon Jan 21, 2019 6:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: NY Times $1 per week digital
Replies: 41
Views: 6120

Re: NY Times $1 per week digital

I read the newspaper for free every day at my local library.

Even cheaper than $1! :D
by All Seasons
Sat Jan 19, 2019 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?
Replies: 103
Views: 6870

Re: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?

"Cyber risks to your finances are rising as big banks rely on the oligopoly of big tech" “severe but plausible cyber scenario.” "...data breach of customer information at a third party that led to a spike in bank accounts being hacked and drained of funds.” Buy physical gold, dang it. :beer https://...
by All Seasons
Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold ETF "Guarantee"
Replies: 39
Views: 2804

Re: Gold ETF "Guarantee"

It seems to me that if the premise is that gold is held in event of an undefined, unprecedented crisis then no assumptions are safe including the assumption that gold would have any value at all. This is of course true of gold as it is true of any asset. Even 'hard' assets like real estate can be c...
by All Seasons
Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold ETF "Guarantee"
Replies: 39
Views: 2804

Re: Gold ETF "Guarantee"

If you want maximum convertibility from your ETF shares to physical in the event of disaster, then you should ONLY buy shares of Sprott Physical.

Closed end, fully allocated, and unencumbered.
by All Seasons
Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold ETF "Guarantee"
Replies: 39
Views: 2804

Re: Gold ETF "Guarantee"

Make half of your gold holdings physical and the other half digital.

That way you get the robustness and security of physical holding, and the liquidity of ETFs for ease of rebalancing and such. Best of both worlds.
by All Seasons
Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?
Replies: 103
Views: 6870

Re: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?

Here is my issue with holding gold for catastrophic conditions: How many trips to the gathering location (where those having goods for sale meet those with gold to buy those goods) before Mr/Ms Goldholder end up in ditch dead, with no gold and no goods? Or, after trading gold for goods are simply f...
by All Seasons
Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When would you stop being a Boglehead?
Replies: 95
Views: 8109

Re: When would you stop being a Boglehead?

I'm a computer programmer.

I'd only stop being a Boglehead if on some off chance I was able to create some kind of super-powered piece of trading software that beat the market consistently.
by All Seasons
Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 856
Views: 57756

Re: John Bogle, who founded Vanguard and revolutionized retirement savings, dies at 89

:( :( :( :( :( :(

NOOOOOOOOOOO.

May the great man rest in peace...
by All Seasons
Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?
Replies: 103
Views: 6870

Re: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?

The standard references for why gold should be bought are usually people like Ray Dalio, Harry Browne, and sometimes even Alan Greenspan. However, if even Bogle is conceding 5%, then it's a settled argument to me. Gold is worthy of inclusion. A small allocation to gold has typically boosted risk adj...
by All Seasons
Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to avoid temptation to buy hot stocks or bitcoin?
Replies: 63
Views: 4778

Re: How to avoid temptation to buy hot stocks or bitcoin?

For anyone who succumbs to what the OP is talking about, go see your doctor. No, I'm serious. If you have behaviour that you cannot control that is detrimental to yourself, you should see your doctor. They can then refer you to a counsellor who is professionally trained and can give you exercises an...
by All Seasons
Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Dirt Simple Wins Again. Couch Potato Portfolio"
Replies: 20
Views: 4805

Re: "Dirt Simple Wins Again. Couch Potato Portfolio"

100% agreed in principle.

My expression of simple is the Permanent Portfolio though. Different strokes for different folks!
by All Seasons
Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?
Replies: 103
Views: 6870

Re: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?

Yup. Mr. Bogle does this. https://youtu.be/3uJbHREmUs4 Around 56 minutes into the interview Mr. Bogle recommends 5% gold. 57:00 "And then, against two contingencies, just in case, I put 5% in Emerging Market Index, and, I hope your sitting down, 5% in Gold... a 5% hedge against some kind of catastr...
by All Seasons
Thu Dec 27, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the real contrarians please stand up?
Replies: 58
Views: 4321

Re: Will the real contrarians please stand up?

All my equity exposure is value tilted... I guess that's a minor form of contrarianism.
by All Seasons
Mon Dec 24, 2018 3:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do I need Norton Virus Protection?
Replies: 30
Views: 3064

Re: Do I need Norton Virus Protection?

Run from Norton. I agree about Norton; it's not good, and I also won't talk about Apple just because it's not my area of expertise. Feel free to clearly and explicitly tell us why Norton is so bad. Thanks. Indeed. Pcworld rates norton as the overall best in the market. https://www.google.ca/amp/s/w...
by All Seasons
Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 736
Views: 171598

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

https://image.ibb.co/kLOd20/3.jpg Portfolio 1 is the PP. Portfolio 2 is 60/40. The PP performs very admirably. Keep in mind that this even excludes the crazy gold run up of the early and mid-1970s that people like to harp on as being the PP's crutch. Looks more or less like Larry's Black Swan Portf...
by All Seasons
Sun Dec 09, 2018 3:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?
Replies: 236
Views: 15536

Re: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?

Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?
Yes. :beer
by All Seasons
Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12343
Views: 2132481

Re: This is what stocks do.

willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:46 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:44 pm
goodenyou wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:11 pm
“Young man, I believe the market is going to fluctuate.
That would stink. :P
"Will stocks go up or down?"

"Yes."
https://www.reddit.com/r/InclusiveOr/
by All Seasons
Sat Dec 08, 2018 2:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?
Replies: 241
Views: 23503

Re: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?

Global market weight -- the most reasonable position IMHO.
by All Seasons
Sat Dec 01, 2018 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Buybacks Don't Increase Share Prices
Replies: 33
Views: 2992

Re: Stock Buybacks Don't Increase Share Prices

There are 100 pieces of a $500M company (we will call this the "shares" of the company), you have 25, I have 25 and a bunch of other folks have 50. You and I own 25% of the company, including all cash on the balance sheet (this is part of the company's assets of which we own a share). The company n...
by All Seasons
Thu Nov 22, 2018 5:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency and International Investing
Replies: 7
Views: 1133

Re: Currency and International Investing

Currency fluctuations are indeed an additional source of risk, but this is also why they are an additional source of diversification.

Embrace international currencies as a diversifier.
by All Seasons
Thu Nov 22, 2018 5:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does a "Larry" portfolio work in the current interest rate environment?
Replies: 23
Views: 2157

Re: Does a "Larry" portfolio work in the current interest rate environment?

The Larry Portfolio works fine in the current interest rate regime. With the fixed income portion at 5-year notes, there really isn't that much interest rate sensitivity at all. I wouldn't worry about interest rates in regards to the Larry Portfolio. It's a wonderful strategy. Just set it, forget it...
by All Seasons
Mon Nov 19, 2018 1:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 736
Views: 171598

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

The second screenshot clearly shows TSM funds are not appropriate for the PP. Browne recommends smaller, more volatile and aggressive stocks. Keep in mind that this was published back in 1987, so phrases like "small cap value" were not in vogue. While that’s true for 1987, he definitely switched to...
by All Seasons
Fri Nov 16, 2018 4:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 736
Views: 171598

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

If you are going to be doing backtests with the PP there's caveat you should take into consideration that many don't. The PP isn't just a portfolio like, say, the Three Fund Portfolio. It's more than that. It's also got the cash management system and emergency fund built into its 25% cash allocatio...
by All Seasons
Wed Nov 07, 2018 5:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investments with zero yield
Replies: 41
Views: 3818

Re: Investments with zero yield

Which synthetic ETF could I easily buy through my broker TD Ameritrade that replicates the S&P500 ? Indeed. Here is one that is Canadian and trades on a Canadian exchange, but it is denominated in U.S. dollars. https://www.horizonsetfs.com/etf/HXS-U This may fit your needs. If it doesn't I'm sure t...
by All Seasons
Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investments with zero yield
Replies: 41
Views: 3818

Re: Investments with zero yield

Buy a synthetic ETF. They track an index using derivatives and have no cap gains or dividend distributions. They don't actually hold the underlying securities directly. IMO this is also superior to buying BRK since you don't have to worry about single stock risk. A good primer: https://www.horizonse...
by All Seasons
Fri Nov 02, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: no dividends in index funds!
Replies: 95
Views: 10183

Re: no dividends in index funds!

Some people in this thread have commented on the potential benefits of a fund with stocks that paid no dividends. For those that aren't aware, there exist synthetic funds that have no capital gain or dividend distributions at all. They use derivatives to track an underlying index rather than holding...