Search found 151 matches

by All Seasons
Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 295
Views: 19493

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Not to belabour All Seasons' point, but for those of you still thinking those T-bills are riskless, this may make for fruitful viewing. :D https://9gag.com/gag/a2WZDd1 What a harrowing sight. Many will try and chime in and say it can't happen in America. Well, it already has happened. The history o...
by All Seasons
Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 295
Views: 19493

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

A final thought. People often scoff at gold and say it doesn't have intrinsic value because it doesn't produce cashflow. Why should it? It's money. Investment assets produce cashflow. Why should money itself produce cashflow? It's the one asset that isn't someone else's promise, so gold requires dif...
by All Seasons
Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 295
Views: 19493

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Regarding gold and the question of intrinsic value. I have pondered this question quite a bit myself and have come to a conclusion that satisfies me via my research. Gold has intrinsic value because it is money par excellence. It deserves its place as the ultimate money because it's the only thing t...
by All Seasons
Sat Jul 04, 2020 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 295
Views: 19493

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

But gold is not money in modern society any more than beads, salt, or sea shells. It’s a commodity that people like to speculate on when they believe there is some sort of crisis, despite the fact that it has not particular use in a crisis. Its value is entirely psychological and is therefore subje...
by All Seasons
Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 295
Views: 19493

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Data without theory to me is just as unconvincing as theory without data. I still want a reason why gold should be a profitable investment. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/money-credit-debt-ray-dalio/ Ray Dalio's papers on the subject are about as compelling and coherent of a theory as you are going...
by All Seasons
Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Win Win for Gold?
Replies: 25
Views: 1036

Re: Win Win for Gold?

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:18 am
What about the 1970s, when interest rates and inflation were high and gold zoomed up like a rocket?
bUt THat wAs JuSt a ONe TiMe eVEnt.

;-)
by All Seasons
Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing
Replies: 290
Views: 12725

Re: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing

The bottom line on factor investing is that everyone should be doing it. Like how everyone should be investing globally.
by All Seasons
Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 786
Views: 179253

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

I think it's important to remember that we can't talk about the PP in isolation. There's also the VP. The mental framework for thinking about the PP + VP strategy is different from traditional investing. That's why Browne's strategy was so often misunderstood. Traditional: emergency fund + investmen...
by All Seasons
Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]
Replies: 372
Views: 25965

Re: [Why aren't forum members following the "Stay the course" approach?]

To OP, it's because most investors tend to overestimate their risk tolerance.

It's very common.
by All Seasons
Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2
Replies: 245
Views: 24081

Re: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2

PP's concept of risk parity matching conflates capital allocation with risk contribution, which isn't accurate. That's not true. Yeah, it is. Do a risk regression on it. No, it's not true. The underlying assets have volatilities that are constantly changing. For instance, a 30 year long treasury at...
by All Seasons
Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...
Replies: 107
Views: 10122

Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

This silliness happens in EVERY market drop. People over-estimate their risk tolerance and do silly things. They then play the regret game and start adopting conservative allocations at exactly the wrong time. Then the market goes up for a few years and everyone takes a big dump on conservative allo...
by All Seasons
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...
Replies: 107
Views: 10122

Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

A better solution than playing these forecasting games with subsequent regret is to simply adopt a portfolio that is ready for any economic climate.

Dump the 3-fund and 60/40 type hogwash and get a real portfolio.

https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/golden-butterfly/
by All Seasons
Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds falling?
Replies: 236
Views: 5778

Re: Time to exit conventional Bond funds?

rerod wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:21 am

Oh yeah, Treasury bonds look like a great buy after you click on Max.
https://www.google.com/search?client=fi ... -d&q=VUSTX
Why did you default to long treasury, and what is your point?
by All Seasons
Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds falling?
Replies: 236
Views: 5778

Re: Time to exit conventional Bond funds?

There are many intelligent voices that say you should not take credit risk in the bond side of your portfolio and just hold Treasury securities. This is often, though not always, said in tandem with "take your risk with equities." Larry Swedroe was one of these people. Overall, yes, I would have to ...
by All Seasons
Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value Premium - New FF paper
Replies: 264
Views: 14952

Re: Factor Funds

Factor funds can be very risky as evidenced by Small-Cap Value funds which are now the WORST Morningstar category. But in your other posts you specifically point out that selecting funds and judging them based on past performance is a fool’s errand. So the fact that SCV funds are in the worst Morni...
by All Seasons
Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 295
Views: 19493

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Good question. However, I have little confidence that such manipulation is as rampant as purported by All Seasons. The total market value of all the gold in the world right now is estimated to be [ur]=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve]$7.5 trillion[/url]. By comparison, the U.S. money supp...
by All Seasons
Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 295
Views: 19493

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

So it sounds like you’re saying it’s irrelevant to know whether it’s manipulated or not. I can't answer that for other people. Is it irrelevant to know that bond prices are manipulated by QE and so forth? If you're a pure passive investor you might say "Yes, it's irrelevant to know. I'll just buy a...
by All Seasons
Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 295
Views: 19493

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

If, hypothetically, we assume this manipulation is both true and effective: What impact does that have on: -Whether to hold gold or not -How long to hold gold -When to buy -When to sell -Role gold plays in an asset allocation It means hold it in your portfolio and let it sit there. Honestly, from y...
by All Seasons
Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 295
Views: 19493

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Gold price manipulation by governments is real and important to know about. It's important to know about to the same extent that people should know bond prices are manipulated by central banks. Even at the very least, one can infer government intention by analyzing their action. Lest any mod thinks ...
by All Seasons
Sat Feb 15, 2020 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you used multiple investment strategies, which would you use and why?
Replies: 271
Views: 11485

Re: If you used multiple investment strategies, which would you use and why?

Jack Bogle has often said to keep investing simple and the Two or Two Fund Portfolio does that. Consider these experts: American Association of Individual Investors: "It should come as no surprise that behavioral finance research makes a strong case for buying and holding low-cost, broadly diversif...
by All Seasons
Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF to Hold for 50 Years
Replies: 118
Views: 10574

Re: ETF to Hold for 50 Years

SPXL.
by All Seasons
Tue Feb 11, 2020 7:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Explain to me why dividends aren't real money
Replies: 81
Views: 8328

Re: Explain to me why dividends aren't real money

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 7:24 pm
I smell troll.
Ditto.
by All Seasons
Tue Feb 11, 2020 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 378
Views: 54815

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

Gold is, I think, better viewed as a general chaos hedge. If inflation is more than a minor irritant, then gold will respond positively to it. To that extent, it is a good inflation hedge. Putting it another way, if inflation is causing actual systemic problems (chaos), you can rely on gold. Gold wi...
by All Seasons
Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 60/40 Doesn't Cut it Anymore?
Replies: 84
Views: 12523

Re: 60/40 Doesn't Cut it Anymore?

First you stated this: Nobody knows what the future holds , and I specifically referenced that, so I don't know where your 'fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of risk' is coming from. Then you stated this: The next ten years' total return for bonds has been far more predictable, and it's lo...
by All Seasons
Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody buying gold?
Replies: 112
Views: 5162

Re: Anybody buying gold?

Anyone who doesn’t include a modicum of gold in their portfolio is being extremely imprudent and foolish IMNSHO. Can I infer from your user name that you're following the Ray Dalio All Seasons portfolio? 7.5% allocation in that, if I recall. Heh, it’s actually a reference to Robert Bolt’s classic p...
by All Seasons
Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody buying gold?
Replies: 112
Views: 5162

Re: Anybody buying gold?

Anyone who doesn’t include a modicum of gold in their portfolio is being extremely imprudent and foolish IMNSHO.
by All Seasons
Thu Sep 19, 2019 12:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]
Replies: 254
Views: 33524

Re: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]

When Batman tells you that the world’s index funds are a bubble, we should all listen. :wink:
by All Seasons
Wed Sep 18, 2019 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best financial books for a new investor.
Replies: 15
Views: 1059

Re: Best financial books for a new investor.

The Little Book of Common Sense Investing by John Bogle.

This is the starting point that I recommend to all new investors.

It's short, succinct, non-intimidating, and has all the essentials. :beer
by All Seasons
Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy being killed?
Replies: 142
Views: 17229

Re: Is the 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy being killed?

Asness has alluded to something along the lines of a traditional 60/40 strategy likely running into trouble in the future. Not "killed", but certainly hobbled. Stocks sometimes get high valuations. Bonds sometimes get high valuations. Seldom do they happen together (I think he said the current cond...
by All Seasons
Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 19967

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

Careful, guys. We’re getting off topic here.
by All Seasons
Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 865
Views: 58264

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

This along with all the gold threads in the recent past...

Every day the discussions on this board move closer and closer and closer to realizing how prudent the Permanent Portfolio is as a strategy... but we never quite seem to get there. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
by All Seasons
Mon Jul 29, 2019 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not aim for a HIGH YIELDING portfolio?
Replies: 60
Views: 5590

Re: Why not aim for a HIGH YIELDING portfolio?

A stock's price will always rise by the amount of the announced dividend leading up to the ex-dividend date. When that date passes the stock price immediately falls by the amount of the dividend. That's why I was pointing out that the argument that receiving a dividend is the same thing as selling ...
by All Seasons
Mon Jul 29, 2019 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not aim for a HIGH YIELDING portfolio?
Replies: 60
Views: 5590

Re: Why not aim for a HIGH YIELDING portfolio?

Going against the grain a bit. There is good research from outfits such as AQR demonstrating that dividend investing will generate higher returns even after taking into account taxes and factor exposure. https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=196007026117114074026075117070121000123072060031075...
by All Seasons
Mon Jul 29, 2019 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not aim for a HIGH YIELDING portfolio?
Replies: 60
Views: 5590

Re: Why not aim for a HIGH YIELDING portfolio?

Going against the grain a bit. There is good research from outfits such as AQR demonstrating that dividend investing will generate higher returns even after taking into account taxes and factor exposure. https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=1960070261171140740260751170701210001230720600310750...
by All Seasons
Sat Jul 20, 2019 7:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gold?
Replies: 137
Views: 9001

Re: Gold?

A Bloomberg column from May of this year is titled You Can Still Buy a House With Gold Bars in Vietnam . Excerpt: Vietnam may be one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, yet it’s still in the dark ages when it comes to joining the global trend toward cashless transactions. To understand why, l...
by All Seasons
Sat Jul 20, 2019 3:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gold?
Replies: 137
Views: 9001

Re: Gold?

The problem with that Buffett article is that, in my opinion, Buffett's logic is fatally flawed. He's committing the logical fallacy of the false dichotomy. He's presenting two choices as mutually exclusive when they are not mutually exclusive: "Would you rather have Pile A or Pile B?" Obviously, i...
by All Seasons
Fri Jul 19, 2019 2:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gold?
Replies: 137
Views: 9001

Re: Gold?

Like really, if even Bogle (one of the most anti-gold people out there) conceded 5% to gold, the average person shouldn't have a problem with a 10% diversifier. Let's stop being so stuck up about this.
by All Seasons
Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted]
Replies: 176
Views: 27135

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

Adopt some risk parity and we don't have to worry about politicians embracing or not embracing MMT. :)
by All Seasons
Tue Jun 11, 2019 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 17788

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

This whole thread can be summed up most succinctly by simply saying that the behaviour of the portfolio as a whole is more important than the behaviour of any individual asset or asset class within it. I don’t think any sensible person will disagree with that. It’s a gestalt perspective. No need to ...
by All Seasons
Tue May 28, 2019 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Home Country Bias Ubiquitous
Replies: 37
Views: 4938

Re: Larry Swedroe: Home Country Bias Ubiquitous

What’s even more ubiquitous than home country bias is the laundry list of silly arguments being put forth trying to justify it. :oops:
by All Seasons
Fri May 24, 2019 1:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4 Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 5124

Re: 4 Seasons Portfolio

I see the Permanent Portfolio as the natural "starting point" for deciding asset allocation. It holds all the major asset classes with no biases towards or against any of them. Start with the Permanent Portfolio and deviate from it as you see fit based on the usual suspects: time horizon, risk toler...
by All Seasons
Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does dividend investing not work?
Replies: 186
Views: 28191

Re: Why does dividend investing not work?

All 30 stocks in the DJIA pay dividends and over 80% of the stocks in the S&P 500 pay dividends. Nuff said. The investors here who say dividends are bad and destroy value are a very very tiny minority whose views are not accepted by the vast majority of all public corporations. Nobody is saying div...
by All Seasons
Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does dividend investing not work?
Replies: 186
Views: 28191

Re: Why does dividend investing not work?

Just buy total market funds and forget about any of this rigmarole.
by All Seasons
Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone own gold?
Replies: 108
Views: 12982

Re: Does anyone own gold?

I sincerely believe that one needs exposure to gold, silver, or just commodities in general to have a really balanced portfolio. Ignore these asset classes at your peril. I believe Larry Swedroe and Ray Dalio have both written/spoken pretty substantially on these alternatives, and why it is advisab...
by All Seasons
Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anyone own gold?
Replies: 108
Views: 12982

Re: Does anyone own gold?

I sincerely believe that one needs exposure to gold, silver, or just commodities in general to have a really balanced portfolio. Ignore these asset classes at your peril. I believe Larry Swedroe and Ray Dalio have both written/spoken pretty substantially on these alternatives, and why it is advisabl...
by All Seasons
Fri Jan 25, 2019 6:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good camping blogs or forums?
Replies: 12
Views: 1129

Re: Good camping blogs or forums?

You're visiting OTHER forums?

You're cheating on us? :evil: :thumbsdown :?:
by All Seasons
Mon Jan 21, 2019 6:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: NY Times $1 per week digital
Replies: 41
Views: 6744

Re: NY Times $1 per week digital

I read the newspaper for free every day at my local library.

Even cheaper than $1! :D
by All Seasons
Sat Jan 19, 2019 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?
Replies: 103
Views: 7562

Re: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?

"Cyber risks to your finances are rising as big banks rely on the oligopoly of big tech" “severe but plausible cyber scenario.” "...data breach of customer information at a third party that led to a spike in bank accounts being hacked and drained of funds.” Buy physical gold, dang it. :beer https://...