Search found 218 matches

by SandysDad
Wed May 27, 2020 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 239
Views: 16755

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

I think I posted this earlier but... I could see how my initial post reads like I sold everything around 3/21 (and it is what I suggested others do). However, just to clarify, I was net selling equities from January (rebalancing), February, March and April (Pandemic Concerns). So at S&P 3000 I am be...
by SandysDad
Wed May 27, 2020 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 239
Views: 16755

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

A few tough comments in this thread (not everyone by all means). While I definitely thought things would bounce up and down as they always do, I definitely did not think we would be toying w/ S&P 3000 this quickly. I do still think there is something off w/ the risk adjusted price levels relative to...
by SandysDad
Tue May 26, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 239
Views: 16755

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

I totally get it how some would look at this now, and say OMG worst timing possible! I also think the way to look at this is with a degree of patience. Most every bear market plays out in a time frame measured in years and with multiple rallies in the middle (except maybe 1987). So the way I look a...
by SandysDad
Tue May 26, 2020 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 239
Views: 16755

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

Still not trying to call the bottom, just have a firm belief that the Market will have another leg down (minimum) before we are past this. Discussion back and forth thru short term gyrations is probably not as useful. My thesis and my point is still why someone would pay more than they would in Dec...
by SandysDad
Mon Apr 27, 2020 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 239
Views: 16755

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

I totally get it how some would look at this now, and say OMG worst timing possible! I also think the way to look at this is with a degree of patience. Most every bear market plays out in a time frame measured in years and with multiple rallies in the middle (except maybe 1987). So the way I look at...
by SandysDad
Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 239
Views: 16755

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

What I am doing is a marketwide version of "I am not buying XYZ.com because I believe it to be overvalued". Or the same thing but I am selling it for the same reason. Do you all believe that you cannot time the purchase or sale of an individual stock? The market knows all? Not really. Sometimes it i...
by SandysDad
Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 239
Views: 16755

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

What is your benchmark for assessing that the market is back in line with the economy? Serious question. valuations relative to peak earnings is one key criteria. When it is clear that earnings in 2020 / 2021 will be lower than 2019, why would I pay (or continue to hold) equities at P/E multiples w...
by SandysDad
Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 239
Views: 16755

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

We are looking to be in far worse shape over the next year than anything that was remotely contemplated in Dec 2018. Yet somehow people feel it is too late to sell. Stop anchoring you’re feelings around gains that you are not getting back anytime soon. That 3000 S&P is NOT Coming back anytime soon....
by SandysDad
Sun Apr 19, 2020 6:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Won the game early -- worried about bond holdings
Replies: 54
Views: 4874

Re: Won the game early -- worried about bond holdings

My comments in red below Hi all, Goal / Situation I sold a business in my early 30's (now in late 30's) and am currently employed at a big company. I have about 5M in assets from the sale, and I'd like to keep working but more as something to enjoy not chase money so much. So really don't want to s...
by SandysDad
Sat Apr 18, 2020 7:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Parent is working grueling job, considering retiring just a few years before pension. How else can I help her decide?
Replies: 50
Views: 3551

Re: Parent is working grueling job, considering retiring just a few years before pension. How else can I help her decide

Can she ask her employer for another assignment, or part time work? I don't know the full details about why she was placed night shift last year. From what I gathered, I believe my parent was doing her job too well and wasn't letting some folks on the field get away with risky work, and so perhaps ...
by SandysDad
Sat Apr 18, 2020 7:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension vs. simply investing? Is pension even worth it at all?
Replies: 58
Views: 3713

Re: Pension vs. simply investing? Is pension even worth it at all?

I think your original analysis left out two huge factors. 1. Over 30 years your salary will increase greatly 2. you are assuming 7% return on the deferral for comparison, but ignoring inflation on your salary and final x years comp level. I think if you are trying to model it you should start w/ wha...
by SandysDad
Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 32591

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

This is the biggest disconnect I've seen between the markets and reality in my investing career. Maybe the shock is so severe that the markets haven't had a chance to process it fully (yes I know it dropped last month). Me too. But I guess the mantra really does ring true here - don't fight the Fed...
by SandysDad
Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 32591

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

This is the biggest disconnect I've seen between the markets and reality in my investing career. Maybe the shock is so severe that the markets haven't had a chance to process it fully (yes I know it dropped last month). Me too. But I guess the mantra really does ring true here - don't fight the Fed...
by SandysDad
Thu Apr 16, 2020 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now
Replies: 128
Views: 13356

Re: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now

Sounds like he's long equities and wants you to hop on and pump them up for him. Do your civic duty and inflate the bubble man! Not true at all. Watch this video. He says coronacrash is going to be worse than 2008. https://www.ted.com/talks/ray_dalio_what_coronavirus_means_for_the_global_economy Ju...
by SandysDad
Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Just how easy is owning real estate if you have a property manager? (super easy, or just “less hard”)?
Replies: 51
Views: 4626

Re: Just how easy is owning real estate if you have a property manager? (super easy, or just “less hard”)?

Profit is profit - no need to distinguish between appreciation and income unless you need the income. In some (maybe most) VHCOL areas, the profit comes mostly from appreciation, not income, which can be totally fine. There are many investors who have made tons of money on appreciation. If that is ...
by SandysDad
Mon Apr 13, 2020 6:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What makes a real estate agent good?
Replies: 30
Views: 2517

Re: What makes a real estate agent good?

Asking as a potential real estate agent is good. I would agree with folks that say part time you won’t be able to provide what a good agent provides. Most agents focus on relationship listing and selling. This works. It also pulls people in to using sub optimal agents. The best agents tell buyers an...
by SandysDad
Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Just how easy is owning real estate if you have a property manager? (super easy, or just “less hard”)?
Replies: 51
Views: 4626

Re: Just how easy is owning real estate if you have a property manager? (super easy, or just “less hard”)?

It depends on the type of property. If you want something that is “no work”. You need a newer class a property in a top in demand location. What you will find is that when you look at the numbers profit wise for these types of properties the income after expenses is minimal (or a loss). Possible app...
by SandysDad
Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help for Landlords in the Stimulus Bills?
Replies: 198
Views: 13507

Re: Help for Landlords in the Stimulus Bills?

I'm adding this sort of risk (e.g. new laws unfavorable to landlords) to the list of reasons why I am not a landlord. This was actually the #1 reason why I shrunk my own rental business. If one does become a landlord, pick your state and city carefully. Not just current law, but likely new laws.
by SandysDad
Mon Apr 13, 2020 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help for Landlords in the Stimulus Bills?
Replies: 198
Views: 13507

Re: Help for Landlords in the Stimulus Bills?

But here's the thing. There are lots of landlords who have paid off the mortgages for their rentals and who count on the monthly rents for their livelihood. You know, for buying food, health insurance, gas, etc. In other words, they don't have another job for which they can claim unemployment, and ...
by SandysDad
Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What opportunities are there to take advantage of the coronavirus situation?
Replies: 26
Views: 3762

Re: What opportunities are there to take advantage of the coronavirus situation?

Stocks are on sale right now. It might not be the lowest sale price of the year, but it is a sale price. Are they really? AS of today they are 19% below the Feb 2020 high (S&P 500). Stocks are priced for forward earnings. Do you really think 2020 and 2021 earnings will only be 19% less? The most op...
by SandysDad
Mon Apr 13, 2020 7:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help for Landlords in the Stimulus Bills?
Replies: 198
Views: 13507

Re: Help for Landlords in the Stimulus Bills?

I come at this from a landlord both for vacation rentals and for apartments. Everyone is being effected by this situation. Everyone (including landlords) are getting some help. Everyone seems to want to be made whole and wants govt or someone else to bear the costs. Landlords are all getting help. H...
by SandysDad
Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Executive pay cut request: How to respond?
Replies: 130
Views: 13174

Re: Executive pay cut request: How to respond?

Leave hours and expectations completely out of it. If you are in a large corp, this will be dictated and you won't have much say. In a medium or smaller company it might be voluntary. What is completely reasonable is to negotiate something financial on the back end if voluntary (such as raise or com...
by SandysDad
Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Black (White) Swan Portfolio Insurance ?
Replies: 33
Views: 1884

Re: Black Swan Portfolio Insurance ?

alex_686 wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:33 am
Deep in-the-money long dated puts.
Why deep in the money? If one if insuring for a black swan I would think that one would buy them "out of the money" by like 20%+ as one is not insuring a correction, but rather a true bear market or worse. Long dated definitely.
by SandysDad
Thu Apr 02, 2020 5:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: DOT: Airlines must offer refunds for cancelled flights (not just credits)
Replies: 109
Views: 9222

Re: Any Airlines Issuing Actual Refunds

Folks, if the AIRLINE cancelled the flight and won't refund. Just dispute it on the credit card. Have backup doc showing they cancelled the flight.

Your bank should get you your money. If they can't you will still have a credit.
by SandysDad
Thu Apr 02, 2020 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 201
Views: 19164

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

Can't thank you enough for this. There is probably some easy way to get this, but I could not figure it out. Every once in a while I get a gem info wise from Bogleheads and this is one of those. FYI in case you're interested.... I was lucky enough to have made some moves early during this whole thin...
by SandysDad
Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 201
Views: 19164

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

I find it exceptional that the S&P is where it is right now. As reference, the 2008/09 bear market bottomed at 8x peak earnings, that would take the S&P to 1100-1150. I fully expect the S&P go down to 1500, probably lower. That multiple on peak earnings is what I am looking closely at. Do you happe...
by SandysDad
Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?
Replies: 201
Views: 19164

Re: Is the coming pain really "priced in"?

What don't you understand? They succeeded beyond anyone's wildest expectations, passed through all the risks that naysayers claimed would doom the company, and are now poised to print money from the Model Y, which will have insatiable demand as it is in the CUV segment. Insatiable? I wonder if un o...
by SandysDad
Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3983
Views: 302503

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Seems like the professionals are taking the individual buy and hold stay the course investors for fools. They are (and have been) unloading while individual investors buy on the dip and / or rebalance. Please explain why you think that is? Are there really so many buy/hold investors? Here is an art...
by SandysDad
Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3983
Views: 302503

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I almost find it comical that the market is basically shrugging off the now 10M jobs lost in the past two weeks (at least looking at futures at 9:26AM). Seems like the professionals are taking the individual buy and hold stay the course investors for fools. They are (and have been) unloading while i...
by SandysDad
Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Replacing Cable TV with Streaming: Critical Analysis
Replies: 86
Views: 5615

Re: Replacing Cable TV with Streaming: Critical Analysis

I switched two homes in January from overpriced comcast packages to just internet and youtubetv could not be happier.

If you don't like the $50 for YTTV, might I suggest the antennae combined with Netflix?
by SandysDad
Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a risk of US currency collapse with trillion-dollar stimulus?
Replies: 28
Views: 2818

Re: Is there a risk of US currency collapse with trillion-dollar stimulus?

For the US dollar to “collapse” requires that another currency(ies) rise relatively speaking. Which currency would that be? The yuan is not trusted. The euro has more problems than the US dollar. So I don’t think there is a single alternative. What I could see happening is some ‘basket’ of currencie...
by SandysDad
Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why not play the reverse ETFs now
Replies: 24
Views: 1431

Re: Why not play the reverse ETFs now

Starting in February I began buying SPY puts.
I believe this strategy will work out well....
by SandysDad
Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why not play the reverse ETFs now
Replies: 24
Views: 1431

Re: Why not play the reverse ETFs now

Honest question from a newbie: why not buy Tqqq (3x leveraged qqq) when stocks are off their highs (like now)? Around $45 a share off of $120 a share a month ago? The market is bound to make a recovery to previous prices at some point-what am I missing? Because there is a steep downward trend in th...
by SandysDad
Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SP500 PE is still above average 3/28/2020
Replies: 12
Views: 1020

Re: SP500 PE is still above average 3/28/2020

Price to earnings ratio stands at 19, SP500 is circa 2540. When I was taking econ finance 1988 the average SP500 PE was 12. The “new” average SP500 PE is 15 given the great stock performance since 1982ish. The market is still above average in valuation, based on earnings that are preCovid shutdown ...
by SandysDad
Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 90% of individual investors at Vanguard are staying the course
Replies: 48
Views: 5069

Re: 90% of individual investors at Vanguard are staying the course

Statistics can be dangerous. Do the money flows include people invested in life strategy or target date? If so the funds went automatically into equities not be specific action or choice.

Given the market decline it is obvious money is moving out of the market. Why rush a report like this?
by SandysDad
Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 353
Views: 33858

Re: It's Not Different This Time

This time it actually is different. We KNOW we'll get through this (as a society). There is an end in site. What is that end? In six months, either the vast majority of the population will be infected, go through the illness, and be either immune on the other side or dead. Or (the other option) is ...
by SandysDad
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 353
Views: 33858

Re: It's Not Different This Time

This time it actually is different. We KNOW we'll get through this (as a society). There is an end in site. What is that end? In six months, either the vast majority of the population will be infected, go through the illness, and be either immune on the other side or dead. Or (the other option) is ...
by SandysDad
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 353
Views: 33858

Re: It's Not Different This Time

Yes. I started my selling then. But I continued it after feb 24th as well. What is your plan for re-entering the equities market? I don’t have a hard set number. But I plan to ignore 2020 earnings on the market as a whole. They will be temporary. But when I see lots of value on 2019 earnings which ...
by SandysDad
Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 353
Views: 33858

Re: It's Not Different This Time

Yes. I started my selling then. But I continued it after feb 24th as well.
by SandysDad
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 239
Views: 16755

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

Maybe this time, however the risk is that this behavior, over the long term, will almost certainly reduce your returns over simply staying put. The data is abundantly clear. So the risk is that in your attempt to gain an extra 10%, you end up losing a whole lot more than that. Buy and hold is not a...
by SandysDad
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 239
Views: 16755

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

Maybe this time, however the risk is that this behavior, over the long term, will almost certainly reduce your returns over simply staying put. The data is abundantly clear. So the risk is that in your attempt to gain an extra 10%, you end up losing a whole lot more than that. Buy and hold is not a...
by SandysDad
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 239
Views: 16755

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

We can discuss when to get back in later. Now is the time to get out if you haven’t already. 1. Are you telling me that my taxable account 40/60 with anticipated duration of 7 years will not recover its 15% loss? 1. Are you telling me that my 403b with 100% equities will not recover for next 25 yea...
by SandysDad
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 239
Views: 16755

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

For many investors the question should be will we better off in Dec 2040? For someone who is 20 years from needing any of their savings, yes, this will be a distant memory. My perspective is as someone who is in the peak sequence of returns risk zone. So it is more important for me not to take huge...
by SandysDad
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 353
Views: 33858

Re: It's Not Different This Time

This time it actually is different. We KNOW we'll get through this (as a society). There is an end in site. What is that end? In six months, either the vast majority of the population will be infected, go through the illness, and be either immune on the other side or dead. Or (the other option) is ...
by SandysDad
Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 239
Views: 16755

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

For many investors the question should be will we better off in Dec 2040? For someone who is 20 years from needing any of their savings, yes, this will be a distant memory. My perspective is as someone who is in the peak sequence of returns risk zone. So it is more important for me not to take huge...
by SandysDad
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 239
Views: 16755

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

Agree with all of this. I will be looking at the market valuation based on PE from 2019 earnings. When it looks cheap to me based on what companies made in 2019 I plan to Dca back in. To me, cheap is PE under 15 and lower. Do yourself a favor and evaluate "valuation" using more criteria than just p...
by SandysDad
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 239
Views: 16755

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

So back in December of 2018 I looked at market valuations and the growth of my stock index fund investments over the past couple decades and cut way down on my stock investments as I still had a very nice gain from the previous decade's investing. The market did shoot back up, based on what struck ...
by SandysDad
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?
Replies: 239
Views: 16755

Re: Are we better off now than Dec 2018?

It appears certain that the pandemic numbers (confirmed cases & deaths) will get much worse in the coming weeks. I have no certainty whatsoever in how the market will react to that. I find it fascinating that today’s doomsdayers are claiming to be more scared now than in 2008. I had far more concer...
by SandysDad
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Get out now or ride it out?
Replies: 85
Views: 7152

Re: Get out now or ride it out?

To quote barry ritholtz.. Too late to sell, too early to buy. Wellington is a good choice. Given your age and timeframe hard to argue with the choice. I "THINK" there is an opt to make some money by selling at Friday close price point, AND buying back in lower. DO NOT TIME THE BOTTOM. So IF thats IF...
by SandysDad
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 and Dow Futures Hit Limit Down After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open
Replies: 155
Views: 13401

Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Buy SPY puts every Friday. The bad news piles up over the weekend, and you make money by Monday.


Confident this strategy will continue to work for a bit more time.