Search found 535 matches

by PreserveCapital
Sat Mar 03, 2012 2:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Early retirement to Florida
Replies: 177
Views: 22934

Re: Early retirement to Florida

Hello, My husband and I will never retire (artists) but the economic downturn was a "heads up". We had already sold our house (2003: proceeds in CD's through crash) and were renting but decided to do another serious cull of belongings (1/2010) and put the rest in storage (10' x 20' with room for sh...
by PreserveCapital
Sat Mar 03, 2012 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wayne Huizenga book
Replies: 13
Views: 1876

Re: Wayne Huizenga book

2 mergers in the last week or so and the stock had a nice pop back up. Makes you wonder. He's a genius at what he does and has an extraordinary track record. He's is not just a passive stock picker, he is running these businesses. If you want to invest in an individual stock you could do a lot wors...
by PreserveCapital
Sat Mar 03, 2012 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me to understand this Graham quote
Replies: 12
Views: 1752

Re: Help me to understand this Graham quote

Debt to asset ratio is no greater than 1:1. Meaning that if the company had to be liquidated, in theory there are sufficient assets (as represented by book value) to entirely pay off the outstanding debt. Unless the company has negative equity, the debt-to-total-assets ratio cannot exceed 1.0. Grah...
by PreserveCapital
Sat Mar 03, 2012 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you have a portfolio "floor"?
Replies: 50
Views: 4179

Re: Do you have a portfolio "floor"? -- Yes.

“If you cannot afford to lose another penny, then you simply have no recourse but to get out of the stock market.” -- Jack Bogle This is not helpful advice from Mr. Bogle -- it's just a tautology that if you can't stay in then you have to get out. In these days when most have Social Security, it's ...
by PreserveCapital
Sat Mar 03, 2012 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you have a portfolio "floor"?
Replies: 50
Views: 4179

Re: Do you have a portfolio "floor"?

Cash and very safe fixed income (TIPS, treasuries/index fund) are valuable not simply because they permit those inclined to do so, to rebalance in a crisis--but perhaps more importantly, because they are robust in a crisis. To paraphrase Napolean (or maybe it was Patton?): "Plans go out the window o...
by PreserveCapital
Sat Mar 03, 2012 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: lump sum and dollar cost averaging
Replies: 95
Views: 10305

Re: lump sum and dollar cost averaging

i've heard elsewhere on this site that bogleheads would not dollar cost average (dca) a lump sum into an asset class. in fact, someone said that if you have to dca then your allocation for that class is too large. i don't understand the theory behind this. The theory is that when you examine histor...
by PreserveCapital
Sat Mar 03, 2012 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: lump sum and dollar cost averaging
Replies: 95
Views: 10305

Re: lump sum and dollar cost averaging

i've heard elsewhere on this site that bogleheads would not dollar cost average (dca) a lump sum into an asset class. in fact, someone said that if you have to dca then your allocation for that class is too large. i don't understand the theory behind this. i should add that during the equity downtu...
by PreserveCapital
Sat Mar 03, 2012 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is a correction coming?
Replies: 43
Views: 3705

Re: Is a correction coming?

Yes, I think there's a good chance of a correction before summer. That's just an intuition. But if that happens, I don't see why the market wouldn't recover in a year or two. I'm staying invested 96% in stock mutual funds -- as always, I'm more afraid of missing a rally than of getting hit by a sel...
by PreserveCapital
Sat Mar 03, 2012 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is a correction coming?
Replies: 43
Views: 3705

Re: Is a correction coming?

Not trying to time the market but I also don't want to be silly. I am sitting on a goodly amount of cash and it seems, from looking at all of the news, that there are a lot of others doing the same thing. A number of the funds I would like to take a postion in are all trading at 52 week highs. All ...
by PreserveCapital
Sat Mar 03, 2012 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: general advice
Replies: 59
Views: 4037

Re: general advice

The best advice is to live, consumption-wise, as if you were still only making 50k. Increasing your salary 10x suddenly is great--but reversals can happen quickly, too. After maximizing all tax-advantaged retirement investing, 401(k), SEP-IRA if you have one, or solo 401(k), you should start accumul...
by PreserveCapital
Sat Mar 03, 2012 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ingenious or Insane? Living in 2 Separate Condos, 1 Building
Replies: 57
Views: 5232

Re: Ingenious or Insane? Living in 2 Separate Condos, 1 Buil

Worst case: we sell and move out down the line. Very worst case: we do so at a loss, though I'd be surprised if there was much more down left on that front (but not bankrupt if there were). Have you considered renting one of these foreclosure units for a year to see whether you could actually live ...
by PreserveCapital
Sat Mar 03, 2012 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ingenious or Insane? Living in 2 Separate Condos, 1 Building
Replies: 57
Views: 5232

Re: Ingenious or Insane? Living in 2 Separate Condos, 1 Buil

we are committed without the need for marriage There is no need for you to purchase real estate together either. The only reason you are really contemplating this is because your partner (according to how I read your post) refuses to consider the idea of just finding something a little better/more ...
by PreserveCapital
Sat Mar 03, 2012 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ingenious or Insane? Living in 2 Separate Condos, 1 Building
Replies: 57
Views: 5232

Re: Ingenious or Insane? Living in 2 Separate Condos, 1 Buil

Just for general information about floor plans, IME there seems to be a more or less "standard" basic "template" as to how apartments and smaller single family residences are laid out, we are talking about perhaps 900 - 1200 sq feet. This is totally generic. A common layout for a 3 brm/2 bath is the...
by PreserveCapital
Sat Mar 03, 2012 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ingenious or Insane? Living in 2 Separate Condos, 1 Building
Replies: 57
Views: 5232

Re: Ingenious or Insane? Living in 2 Separate Condos, 1 Buil

alas, these are just the foreclosures that happen to have come up. Wow you really have tunnel vision noobinvestor, don't you? You have limited your possible options to ONLY foreclosures and ONLY in this particular building? You aren't thinking "holistically" at all. Just because you know of others ...
by PreserveCapital
Sat Mar 03, 2012 9:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ingenious or Insane? Living in 2 Separate Condos, 1 Building
Replies: 57
Views: 5232

Re: Ingenious or Insane? Living in 2 Separate Condos, 1 Buil

Is it a wild or wonderful idea to own two small condos if we're intent on living in a building where there are (and likely won't be) 2 br / 2 ba available (particularly at foreclosure prices)? My significant other and I (no kids) have been looking at the same building for a while - a great loft/war...
by PreserveCapital
Fri Mar 02, 2012 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Distress. [company trying to force into quitting]
Replies: 74
Views: 7107

Re: Distress.

Until you have lined up a new/better job offer, ask your supervisor how you could improve your work performance so as to make yourself more valuable as an employee.
by PreserveCapital
Fri Mar 02, 2012 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me to understand this Graham quote
Replies: 12
Views: 1752

Re: Help me to understand this Graham quote

Debt to asset ratio is no greater than 1:1.

Meaning that if the company had to be liquidated, in theory there are sufficient assets (as represented by book value) to entirely pay off the outstanding debt.
by PreserveCapital
Fri Mar 02, 2012 2:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who Will Take Care Of My Wife?
Replies: 77
Views: 5674

Re: Who Will Take Care Of My Wife?

Rick Ferri's company only charge .25%.

Try contacting him privately.

Note: I am not a shill for Rick Ferri and receive nothing for mentioning this.
by PreserveCapital
Thu Mar 01, 2012 8:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: question about builder
Replies: 15
Views: 1125

Re: question about builder

If you tell the bank the price is 190 then you will owe the builder an additional $8000.

Good for the builder, not so good for you.
by PreserveCapital
Thu Mar 01, 2012 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: inflation 8 percent?
Replies: 45
Views: 4025

Re: inflation 8 percent?

According to the org's website, the EPI measures items constituting 39% of total household expenditures. They measured inflation at 7.2% but that is only on 39% of total household expenditures. They did not weight the average. .39 x 7.2 = 2.808% inflation rate if the other 61% of household expenditu...
by PreserveCapital
Thu Mar 01, 2012 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: inflation 8 percent?
Replies: 45
Views: 4025

Re: inflation 8 percent?

From the linked article: The not-for-profit research group measures inflation without looking at the big, one-time purchases that can skew the numbers. That means they don't look at the price of houses, furniture, appliances, cars, or computers. Instead, AIER focuses on Americans' typical daily purc...
by PreserveCapital
Thu Mar 01, 2012 3:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A Rant, a lot of Emotion, and a bottom
Replies: 13
Views: 2157

Re: A Rant, a lot of Emotion, and a bottom

The problem really boils down to just to what extent is the money we are risking/investing truly "risk capital"--that is, money we could really truly afford to lose? For the vast majority of us, investing for retirement, we CAN'T really afford to lose all or even a substantial portion of our suppose...
by PreserveCapital
Thu Mar 01, 2012 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need recommendations for a friend with a sad inheritance
Replies: 43
Views: 3363

Re: Need recommendations for a friend with a sad inheritance

Sorry if something I said offended you as that was not my intention. Which still begs the question: Why are you trying to persuade your friend to do something--that is, not sell the apartment--that is obviously contrary to her wishes? If you view yourself in the role of "financial advisor"/friend or...
by PreserveCapital
Thu Mar 01, 2012 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Yes, ANOTHER Social Security Question
Replies: 14
Views: 1384

Re: Yes, ANOTHER Social Security Question

I agree with nisiprius that most of the staff want to be helpful, but that doesn't mean they will always get things right. The correct strategy is the one recommended to lawyers at trial: never ask a question for which you do not already know the answer. Get your facts lined up; come back here with...
by PreserveCapital
Thu Mar 01, 2012 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why buy bond funds now?
Replies: 66
Views: 7614

Re: Why buy bond funds now?

You know I almost hate to say it.... ...but with the stock market having just gone on a 100% run up.... No matter how uncomfortable pretty much all of us probably feel with where bonds are right now.... ..."Why buy bonds?" strikes me as possibly just the flip side of "Why not 100% equities?"..... wh...
by PreserveCapital
Thu Mar 01, 2012 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need recommendations for a friend with a sad inheritance
Replies: 43
Views: 3363

Re: Need recommendations for a friend with a sad inheritance

I will be spending the day with her on Saturday
Is she your girlfriend?

You don't sound like you're too interested in giving her completely disinterested advice.
by PreserveCapital
Thu Mar 01, 2012 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need recommendations for a friend with a sad inheritance
Replies: 43
Views: 3363

Re: Need recommendations for a friend with a sad inheritance

A very dear friend in her mid 30s just lost both her parents within the last 3 months and her inheritance is just clearing probate in the next week or two. In addition to a sizeable amount of cash and some pensions/insurance payouts, she also inherited the family home. Total assets are probably aro...
by PreserveCapital
Thu Mar 01, 2012 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Total Economy Portfolio
Replies: 161
Views: 22330

Re: The Total Economy Portfolio

Very interesting Rick. I'm curious as to why you selected small cap value and not small cap growth or just all small cap? Do small cap value stocks really reflect the non-publicly traded companies more than small cap growth companies? The working paper, Private Equity Performance: What Do We Know ?...
by PreserveCapital
Thu Mar 01, 2012 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Total Economy Portfolio
Replies: 161
Views: 22330

Re: The Total Economy Portfolio

Prove it. Good Lord...and would you also like a bound copy of that dissertation submitted to the university's library for archival? What degree program am I enrolled in again? Oh that's right, I'm not enrolled in any so maybe you should take the next few years to detail the proof for your dissertat...
by PreserveCapital
Thu Mar 01, 2012 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Market Bubble?
Replies: 10
Views: 1129

Re: Bond Market Bubble?

Exactly, there's the problem, how do you NOT invest in bonds either by rebalancing or w/new money when we have just been through a 100% run up in equities?
by PreserveCapital
Thu Mar 01, 2012 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New article in Journal of Indexes, on magical thinking
Replies: 23
Views: 3313

Re: New article in Journal of Indexing, on magical thinking

Excellent article. I thought Future Babble by Dan Gardner was another good book on this topic. The fact that the person who "explains that most of us go through life assuming that 'we are basically right, basically all the time, about basically everything" happens to be named Schulz--with that spel...
by PreserveCapital
Thu Mar 01, 2012 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New article in Journal of Indexes, on magical thinking
Replies: 23
Views: 3313

Re: New article in Journal of Indexing, on magical thinking

nisprius I am using it and explain it clearly that loser's game is not that you cannot win, but the odds of doing so are so low that it is not prudent to try. Which is what Ellis is saying. You can win by trying to hit that great shot but the odds of doing so are so low you should not try Best wish...
by PreserveCapital
Thu Mar 01, 2012 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Market Bubble?
Replies: 10
Views: 1129

Re: Bond Market Bubble?

Yes obviously bonds have done very well recently but so have stocks--which have doubled since March 2009. If you are going to avoid bonds then you have to have quite a bit of confidence that equities still have plenty of room to run. I don't think anyone taking an objective look at our economy would...
by PreserveCapital
Thu Mar 01, 2012 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A Rant, a lot of Emotion, and a bottom
Replies: 13
Views: 2157

Re: A Rant, a lot of Emotion, and a bottom

FUD strikes again. I will say however that hindsight is 20-20. If you look at a chart of historical PE ratios March 2009 arguably did not "overshoot" to the downside as much as history might have suggested could happen. I think we were at something like PE10 of 12 or something like that at the March...
by PreserveCapital
Thu Mar 01, 2012 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Industries should I invest in ?
Replies: 18
Views: 1666

Re: Which Industries should I invest in ?

I would like to buy stocks from 5 different industries that have dividend/growth potential for the future. Not looking for a quick turn around, something to hold for 5 or more years. So far I bought MCD in the food services industry and CVX in the petroleum refining industry. Both are rated #1 in t...
by PreserveCapital
Wed Feb 29, 2012 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P Declares Greece in Default - WSJ - 28 Feb 2012
Replies: 19
Views: 2103

Re: S&P Declares Greece in Default - WSJ - 28 Feb 2012

[off-topic comments deleted by admin alex. This forum is for investing issues, not comments on political or social dynamics.]
by PreserveCapital
Wed Feb 29, 2012 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Total Economy Portfolio
Replies: 161
Views: 22330

Re: The Total Economy Portfolio

So now you're arguing that if the empirical results of a scientific investigation disagrees with what you believe ought to be "logically" false or "absolutely" true, it's appropriate to simply discard those empirical results because they must be annoying "noise"? I will repeat that the position you...
by PreserveCapital
Wed Feb 29, 2012 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What qualifies as a RBD?
Replies: 26
Views: 2608

Re: What qualifies as a RBD?

I've never seen the plan for reaping the supposed benefits (i.e. selling those assets you purchased on the theoretical cheap) of the RBD strategy spelled out. OK I see you've answered the question, if no one else can do better than RBD is a literary device for livesoft's posting at bogleheads rathe...
by PreserveCapital
Wed Feb 29, 2012 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What qualifies as a RBD?
Replies: 26
Views: 2608

Re: What qualifies as a RBD?

The RBD used by Livesoft (using him as an example, since he is the most vocal of the adherents to RBD) is not a specified percentage drop. It takes into account past volatility - I believe he uses the past 12 months to compare to, but I'm just firing from the hip here; I don't use this method (I us...
by PreserveCapital
Wed Feb 29, 2012 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Total Economy Portfolio
Replies: 161
Views: 22330

Re: The Total Economy Portfolio

Far too often do scientists and engineers overlook the reality that their hypotheses are either absolutely (ie logically) false or absolutely true, in which case the findings of their empirical tests reflect nothing but noise or mistakes on behalf of the tester. So now you're arguing that if the em...
by PreserveCapital
Wed Feb 29, 2012 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Total Economy Portfolio
Replies: 161
Views: 22330

Re: The Total Economy Portfolio

In theory, I can see this as being helpful for an investor. I'm not sure of the best way to get this exposure to privately held equity. But if this could be set up, would you see this as increasing returns, or just leveling out equity volatility by this broader diversification? I'm still exploring ...
by PreserveCapital
Wed Feb 29, 2012 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing myths
Replies: 14
Views: 1858

Re: rebalancing myths

I once read convincing academic analyses (forgot by whom) that concluded that a stock/bond mix with rebalancing does better than one without rebalancing during a time period in which stocks are highly volatile and range-bound, but worse during a time period in which stocks move decisively to a very...
by PreserveCapital
Wed Feb 29, 2012 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Beach Condo. Good or bad?
Replies: 50
Views: 12000

Re: Beach Condo. Good or bad?

About seven years ago, we bought a place in Rehoboth Beach, DE. (Ocean City, MD and the other Delaware beaches were on our radar too.) We briefly had a small mortgage but managed to pay it off years ago. THE GOOD: The condo is in a great location, and my wife, son, and I love it. It rents all summe...
by PreserveCapital
Wed Feb 29, 2012 1:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Early retirement to Florida
Replies: 177
Views: 22934

Re: Early retirement to Florida

Victoria, I certainly agree with your general approach of not worrying too much about economic optimization your first year. You will just be discovering what you really enjoy and learning more about yourself. Also, many people seem to have a hard time adapting to retirement and adapting to the ide...
by PreserveCapital
Wed Feb 29, 2012 12:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Early retirement to Florida
Replies: 177
Views: 22934

Re: Early retirement to Florida

deleted
by PreserveCapital
Wed Feb 29, 2012 12:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car totaled, now what?
Replies: 54
Views: 3715

Re: Car totaled, now what?

Ironically moments after posting in another thread about car purchasing my wife was involved in an accident that totaled our second car. We did not have collision insurance (in retrospect a bad move, we lost money because of it). So unless we collect from the other driver's insurance (the other dri...
by PreserveCapital
Wed Feb 29, 2012 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The crisis never happened" (Dow 13000)
Replies: 47
Views: 5448

Re: "The crisis never happened" (Dow 13000)

This story is exactly the kind of thing that causes many doubters of EMH to continue doubting. Market participants publicly aver that an arbitrary nominal numerical level on the Dow, which happens to have three trailing zeros, is somehow significant in and of itself. If that kind of sheer numerology...
by PreserveCapital
Wed Feb 29, 2012 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow 20,000 by end of the year!
Replies: 16
Views: 2351

Re: Dow 20,000 by end of the year!

I am looking forward to S&P 20,000! I forecast that we are entering a golden age of prosperity driven by technological wonders the average man has barely dreamed of. Hold on tight, new all time highs await us all! The market has zig zagged for the past 13 years. We are pessimistic perhaps by nature...
by PreserveCapital
Wed Feb 29, 2012 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow 20,000 by end of the year!
Replies: 16
Views: 2351

Re: Dow 20,000 by end of the year!

If this happens then I hope and pray I have the self-control to take a bunch of equities off the table and buy lots of TIPS which presumably will be disfavored in that kind of a frenzied pro-equities environment and perhaps providing a decent real rate of return.
by PreserveCapital
Wed Feb 29, 2012 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Total Economy Portfolio
Replies: 161
Views: 22330

Re: The Total Economy Portfolio

Testing hypotheses is not the only (or even the best) way to arrive at conclusions.
Perhaps not, but it is the most rational way.