Search found 210 matches

by jsprag
Sun Jan 17, 2021 7:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Optimal frequency for auto-investing in taxable account
Replies: 41
Views: 2889

Re: Optimal frequency for auto-investing in taxable account

So look at the chart that jsprag posted. That's a "box-and-whisker" plot, where the central values (medians or means) are horizontal lines, and the boxes contain some reasonable amount of the data. So the boxes are confidence intervals (maybe including 50% of the data - it's common to plo...
by jsprag
Sat Jan 16, 2021 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Optimal frequency for auto-investing in taxable account
Replies: 41
Views: 2889

Re: Optimal frequency for auto-investing in taxable account

I'll second the answer of "invest it when you have it". With respect to Jeremy Siegel, I think that: (a) The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a terrible index to represent the market (b) Even if the observation was actionable in 2012 for timing purchases, there's no certainty that it remain...
by jsprag
Tue Jan 05, 2021 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 7% return in the markets
Replies: 120
Views: 13635

Re: 7% return in the markets

Who uses 7% for which calculations??? We can make a lot of money off of those who naively make such assumptions. Every government pension does. Unfortunately, I don't think you can make money from them - in fact, they will take your money through tax if they don't make these returns. https://www.na...
by jsprag
Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Robo-advisors that just advise, not manage?
Replies: 12
Views: 1054

Re: Robo-advisors that just advise, not manage?

So what do you need a robo for? It would be to see what advice it gave me in terms of fund choices and balancing, given my risk preferences. I don't want it to make trades for me. Yes, I could do this myself, and if decided to do, say, a n fund (n < 5 or whatever) strategy, then I don't really need...
by jsprag
Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The year in which I turn 50, catchup contributions
Replies: 32
Views: 3332

Re: The year in which I turn 50, catchup contributions

You turn 50 on the day before your birthday, which matters for people born January 1, I think. Anyway, yes you can start the catch up in January of the year you turn 50. Wait, what?!! Are you saying that if your birthday is 1/1/1971, you could have started your catch-up last year? You must have had...
by jsprag
Sat Jan 02, 2021 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The year in which I turn 50, catchup contributions
Replies: 32
Views: 3332

Re: The year in which I turn 50, catchup contributions

[...] The very specific question posed by an_asker is if someone who had their 50th birthday on Jan 1, 2021 can make catch-up contributions in tax year 2020. [...] My question was specifically to ThisTimeItsDifferent. Did you read what he/she had written? Yes, but then I got sloppy. You turn 50 on ...
by jsprag
Sat Jan 02, 2021 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 7% return in the markets
Replies: 120
Views: 13635

Re: 7% return in the markets

I always hear 7% being used as the de facto rate in calculations. Who uses 7% for which calculations??? We can make a lot of money off of those who naively make such assumptions. Every government pension does. Unfortunately, I don't think you can make money from them - in fact, they will take your ...
by jsprag
Sat Jan 02, 2021 7:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The year in which I turn 50, catchup contributions
Replies: 32
Views: 3332

Re: The year in which I turn 50, catchup contributions

You must have had your 50th or higher birthday within the taxable year to be “catch-up eligible”. Reference: Treas. Reg. 1.414(v)-1(g)(3) The Vanguard App will include the Catch-up addition as a maximum contribution for IRA, if the op is 50 this year, then the option is available, the amount is $70...
by jsprag
Sat Jan 02, 2021 7:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The year in which I turn 50, catchup contributions
Replies: 32
Views: 3332

Re: The year in which I turn 50, catchup contributions

You turn 50 on the day before your birthday, which matters for people born January 1, I think. Anyway, yes you can start the catch up in January of the year you turn 50. Wait, what?!! Are you saying that if your birthday is 1/1/1971, you could have started your catch-up last year? You must have had...
by jsprag
Sun Nov 29, 2020 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Online calculator for probability of reaching different ages?
Replies: 5
Views: 540

Re: Online calculator for probability of reaching different ages?

The Social Security Administration Acturial Life Table might answer your question.
by jsprag
Tue Aug 11, 2020 4:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: REITs in total stock market index
Replies: 8
Views: 1433

Re: REITs in total stock market index

There is a trivial amount of REITs and it is now much easier to find out than it used to be, because in 2017 REITs became a GICS "headline sector," called simply "real estate." REITs are stocks, and the only "real estate" found in index funds are REITs. (REITs which re...
by jsprag
Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TSP share prices for Quicken
Replies: 112
Views: 25277

Re: TSP share prices for Quicken

Simbilis wrote: Thu Jul 02, 2020 1:29 pm
jsprag wrote: Thu Jul 02, 2020 11:31 am Script updated to reflect 1 July changes to TSP funds:
- Remove L 2020 fund
- Add L 2060 fund
- Add L 20x5 funds
Courtesy of jsprag, the new funds are now in the csv file. I'm running his code now. Except I'm Simbilis, not Simbills :wink:.
Fixed! :oops:
by jsprag
Thu Jul 02, 2020 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TSP share prices for Quicken
Replies: 112
Views: 25277

Re: TSP share prices for Quicken

I've been a long time user of the script, but I'm trying to update it to Python 3 now that Python 2 is deprecated. Running into an issue, so I figured I'd check here to see if maybe Simbilis had already updated to Python 3. I am a complete new to Python user, so it's bee interesting. See if this wo...
by jsprag
Wed Jun 17, 2020 4:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Approximating total int'l stock market
Replies: 2
Views: 241

Re: Approximating total int'l stock market

You’re not missing anything with VTMNX + VEMIX.

See this chart from Vanguard.

Note following mutual fund to ETF equivalencies:
VTMNX => VEA
VEMIX => VWO
VFSAX => VSS
by jsprag
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Basic TLH Question *updated*—clarification
Replies: 24
Views: 950

Re: Basic TLH Question

1. I’m assuming she can offset the gain with her loss in next year’s taxes. She’s held both for years. I'm sure you meant "the taxes for this year that she will file next year", but let's be more specific: if the loss and gain are realized in 2020 then one will offset the other in her tax...
by jsprag
Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modelling the S&P500 – spreadsheet help
Replies: 2
Views: 445

Re: Modelling the S&P500 – spreadsheet help

You are using today's market weights to calculate initial share purchases. Try finding and using Jan 2017 market weights to determine the number of shares you would have bought then (and thus own today). As an example, assume the market consists entirely of two companies, A and B and you have $100 t...
by jsprag
Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What exactly is capitalization weight for U.S., developed, and emerging markets?
Replies: 5
Views: 524

Re: What exactly is capitalization weight for U.S., developed, and emerging markets?

I'd use the FTSE Global All-Cap Index (GEIS), which is the index used by Vanguard Total World (VT) From the latest FTSE monthly fact sheet the U.S. accounts for 55.19% of the total world market. You could then use the Developed ex-US monthly fact sheet to learn which 24 countries are considered deve...
by jsprag
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Active vs. Passive Question
Replies: 10
Views: 1253

Re: Active vs. Passive Question

Within a given universe of stocks, the aggregate of active funds and the aggregate of passive funds will have the exact same return, before costs and fees. After costs and fees, the average passive fund, because of its lower expenses, must necessarily outperform the average active fund. This formul...
by jsprag
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Active vs. Passive Question
Replies: 10
Views: 1253

Re: Active vs. Passive Question

Active sometimes beats passive, even after fees. It happens—for years at a time in some cases. The challenge for the active fund manager(s) is consistently beating their benchmark index by enough to offset the generally higher fees for active management. This is hard. The challenge for the investor ...
by jsprag
Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Excel Losing Support Question
Replies: 7
Views: 1155

Re: Excel Losing Support Question

Other threads talk about getting a new word processor and spreadsheet with the loss of Microsoft Support later this year. Will the word processor and spreadsheet become useless when the support is pulled? Thanks for the help. Can you link to these other threads so we have context for your question?...
by jsprag
Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TSP share prices for Quicken
Replies: 112
Views: 25277

Re: TSP share prices for Quicken

I've been a long time user of the script, but I'm trying to update it to Python 3 now that Python 2 is deprecated. Running into an issue, so I figured I'd check here to see if maybe Simbilis had already updated to Python 3. I am a complete new to Python user, so it's bee interesting. See if this wo...
by jsprag
Fri Feb 21, 2020 12:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimization of maximum regret: Supportive of balanced AAs for some long-term investors?
Replies: 161
Views: 11274

Re: Minimization of maximum regret: Supportive of balanced AAs for some long-term investors?

It appears that regret is the difference between the outcome I got and the outcome that was (in hindsight) the optimal one. That's a very natural assumption due to the maddeningly counterintuitive name. It's a tool to make a current decision, not to assess a past decision. Suppose we break down the...
by jsprag
Thu Feb 20, 2020 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Emergency Funds
Replies: 20
Views: 1969

Re: Emergency Funds

I don't have an emergency fund - I have a plan to fund emergencies. It includes a combination of current bank balances, brief credit card balances, and taxable investment accounts. To date, I've never had an emergency that required liquidating taxable investments (but I have exceptional medical care...
by jsprag
Thu Feb 20, 2020 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimization of maximum regret: Supportive of balanced AAs for some long-term investors?
Replies: 161
Views: 11274

Re: Minimization of maximum regret: Supportive of balanced AAs for some long-term investors?

I don't think people are trying to avoid "under-performance". That's minimal regret. They are trying to avoid catastrophic losses, which is maximum regret. This is spot-on. In a behavioral or emotional sense, maybe. In decision analysis "maximum regret" has a rigorous definition...
by jsprag
Thu Feb 20, 2020 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimization of maximum regret: Supportive of balanced AAs for some long-term investors?
Replies: 161
Views: 11274

Re: Minimization of maximum regret: Supportive of balanced AAs for some long-term investors?

I don't really seem to understand the concept of regret minimization. My investing approach is to calculate the portfolio allocation that gives the highest utility. Let's assume for a second that I arrived at an asset allocation of 100/0. It just so happens that 10 years later, this portfolio alloc...
by jsprag
Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog post: When You Were Born > Everything Else
Replies: 31
Views: 2735

Re: Blog post: When You Were Born > Everything Else

I'll add one more: to whom you were born There's plenty of evidence indicating that the best environmental predictor of economic status and financial security as an adult is...the economic status and financial security of your parents when you were a child. Access to education, learned financial ha...
by jsprag
Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog post: When You Were Born > Everything Else
Replies: 31
Views: 2735

Re: Blog post: When You Were Born > Everything Else

I'll add one more: to whom you were born There's plenty of evidence indicating that the best environmental predictor of economic status and financial security as an adult is...the economic status and financial security of your parents when you were a child. Access to education, learned financial hab...
by jsprag
Sat Feb 08, 2020 3:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question about buying 4 target date funds
Replies: 6
Views: 554

Re: Question about buying 4 target date funds

I think you’re overthinking it. Determine what asset allocation you are comfortable with and find the closest Target Retirement or LifeStrategy, and put it all in that fund. Reevaluate every few years and adjust as necessary. To relate to your proposed arrangement, consider putting 1/4 of your portf...
by jsprag
Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Promotion/Raise!
Replies: 10
Views: 1551

Re: Promotion/Raise!

Congratulations on the raise! My quick thoughts: - Pay off any consumer debt. - Max 401k - Open 529 accounts for children - Contribute to HSA if available and appropriate for family needs - Once tax-advantaged space is exhausted then open and invest in a taxable brokerage account Nothing wrong with ...
by jsprag
Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Couples w/ kids: What is/was the most expensive time period of your life?
Replies: 145
Views: 12382

Re: Couples w/ kids: What is/was the most expensive time period of your life?

In absolute terms: 1. College (most expensive) 2. High school 3. Diaper and daycare years 4. After daycare, before high school (least expensive) Generally more expensive with age. But our income growth easily outpaced the rising costs of having a family. Net disposable income in the high school and ...
by jsprag
Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the highest expense ratio you willingly pay?
Replies: 123
Views: 8857

Re: What is the highest expense ratio you willingly pay?

Curious to hear what other Bogleheads happily pay to get exposure to non 3-fund approved funds? My highest is 0.93%, but I don't happily pay it. I begrudgingly pay it to EJ because it's an IRA my wife inherited. The EJ financial advisor was truly amazing for my late MIL and more than earned her fee...
by jsprag
Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is it worthwhile to contribute to 401k without match
Replies: 29
Views: 3105

Re: Is it worthwhile to contribute to 401k without match

Is it worthwhile to contribute to 401k without match In general it's only worthwhile if (a) you place a high value on the flexibility and freedom of a taxable account, or (b) you assume that future marginal tax rates are significantly higher and/or long term cap gains rates are significantly lower ...
by jsprag
Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much REIT in portfolio?
Replies: 53
Views: 4464

Re: How much REIT in portfolio?

REITs were a disaster during the financial crisis. Total Stock may have dropped 40% - 50% (I don't recall the specifics) but REITs dropped 75% (or more possibly) providing no additional diversification. That’s true, but we can pick another starting point that tells a very different story . $10,000 ...
by jsprag
Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help With Approximating Total Stock Market
Replies: 3
Views: 526

Re: Help With Approximating Total Stock Market

Have you considered using the ticker symbols (added in blue) for the indices? Essentially I'm trying to compare historical returns for hypothetical portfolios with no fees or tracking error: Portfolio 1 (Note there should be no re-balancing and the starting percentages vary slightly based on purchas...
by jsprag
Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cost Matters 2020
Replies: 41
Views: 7256

Re: Cost Matters 2020

Difficult to check your work when calculations are not included in the sheet; I am seeing hard-coded values. Agreed. Mostly gave up trying to audit when I found too many values that weren't (or couldn't be) explained. Please check my work In cell G31: =SUM(G28:G30)*(1-B24)^30 Why does formula refer...
by jsprag
Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: WealthFront account
Replies: 13
Views: 1260

Re: WealthFront account

I don't think direct indexing would be helpful for my case because I was just thinking of using Wealthfront to get ideas on investing. Wealthfront is pretty open about their methodology and allocation based on "risk score". Some examples here or a ton of articles here . You might also be ...
by jsprag
Sun Feb 02, 2020 3:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: "The Best Fund Companies And Their Ratings"
Replies: 17
Views: 1947

Re: Morningstar: "The Best Fund Companies And Their Ratings"

Bogleheads: Morningstar has published a study of 22 mutual fund companies. Vanguard tops the list: I see Vanguard in second place having received an overall rating of 3.85, behind Dodge & Cox with a 4.00. Whether an individual investor can objectively differentiate between any of the top firms ...
by jsprag
Sat Feb 01, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: "The Best Fund Companies And Their Ratings"
Replies: 17
Views: 1947

Re: Morningstar: "The Best Fund Companies And Their Ratings"

Weird that Schwab isn’t mentioned. Does this mean they’re bad...or something about them precludes them from being rated? I wonder if for some reason they just didn't meet the criteria for inclusion. Like maybe they don't manage as many mutual funds? No idea though. Author made a choice to leave out...
by jsprag
Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I have a question for those in early FIRE or planning on early FIRE
Replies: 81
Views: 8416

Re: I have a question for those in early FIRE or planning on early FIRE

Cheez-It Guy wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:12 pm Early Financial Independence Retire Early.
Which begs the question: Can there be a late FIRE (L-FIRE)? Or do the L and E cancel out and become FIR?
by jsprag
Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: "The Best Fund Companies And Their Ratings"
Replies: 17
Views: 1947

Re: Morningstar: "The Best Fund Companies And Their Ratings"

Bogleheads: Morningstar has published a study of 22 mutual fund companies. Vanguard tops the list: I see Vanguard in second place having received an overall rating of 3.85, behind Dodge & Cox with a 4.00. Whether an individual investor can objectively differentiate between any of the top firms ...
by jsprag
Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) book or resource?
Replies: 14
Views: 1212

Re: Best Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) book or resource?

I'm a fairly new federal employee and I'm looking for a good resource to understand the ins and outs of the federal Thrift Savings Plan, or TSP. The Bogleheads TSP Wiki has some great information (https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Thrift_Savings_Plan), but I'm seeking more. There are a lot of rules a...
by jsprag
Mon Jan 13, 2020 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value of Active and Ongoing Reading of the Bogleheads Forums
Replies: 104
Views: 9432

Re: Value of Active and Ongoing Reading of the Bogleheads Forums

If you don't mind sharing, what are some of your other favorite forums? WhiteCoatInvestor forum Cadillac forum Nasty Z28 forum MX-5 Miata forum [sarcasm]As you can tell, I have a wide variety of interests...[/sarcasm] Although I haven't been much on the car forums lately. I've been on quite the fin...
by jsprag
Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Renting vs. Buying in Manhattan
Replies: 21
Views: 1964

Re: Renting vs. Buying in Manhattan

She is willing to rent/buy along with one of her friends but obviously has no savings right now so most of it will have to go on the mortgage. "Buy a first home with a friend" is one of the classic blunders 1 Rent for a year. This allows her to: Build capital Become familiar with city and...
by jsprag
Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Expat income and 401(k)
Replies: 22
Views: 2748

Re: Expat income and 401(k)

Agreed! I'm in the fortunate position of also not being subject to host country taxes, so on the far side of the confusion and complexity there is some great opportunity. Not subject because of the particular country or because of employer tax-equalization? It's the tax-equalization, which gets US_...
by jsprag
Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: selling taxable stock: 401k or Roth investing smarter?
Replies: 7
Views: 415

Re: selling taxable stock: 401k or Roth investing smarter?

Emergency fund. Finish getting the match. Roth IRA. OP: retiredjg is right on target based on the information you presented. If you have consumer debt (credit cards, personal loans, etc...) that you haven't mentioned, then I'd supplement his advice with: Emergency fund. Pay off consumer debt. Finis...
by jsprag
Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value of Active and Ongoing Reading of the Bogleheads Forums
Replies: 104
Views: 9432

Re: Value of Active and Ongoing Reading of the Bogleheads Forums

Cubicle wrote: Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:42 am I'm a geek who enjoys finance. This forum (one of multiple) feeds me knowledge about finance, & other stuff as well.
If you don't mind sharing, what are some of your other favorite forums?
by jsprag
Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Expat income and 401(k)
Replies: 22
Views: 2748

Re: Expat income and 401(k)

I recently began working overseas for US employer and have been struggling to find definitive answers to many of the same questions. I'm far from an expert, but from what I've been able to learn... Am I making a big mistake contributing to this traditional 401K? It might not have been optimal, but p...
by jsprag
Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value of Active and Ongoing Reading of the Bogleheads Forums
Replies: 104
Views: 9432

Re: Value of Active and Ongoing Reading of the Bogleheads Forums

The final, definitive, canonical, unassailable, unanimous, and irrefutable answer to the question of “How much international?” could appear any day now.

You wouldn’t want to miss that.
by jsprag
Sat Jan 11, 2020 12:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where do you keep your Emergency Funds? How is it invested?
Replies: 139
Views: 12126

Re: Where do you keep your Emergency Funds? How is it invested?

I discarded the concept of an emergency fund years ago in favor of a plan to fund emergencies.

I get paid monthly and keep 1.2 x upcoming month expenses in cash. The remainder is transferred to brokerage and invested according to my AA.
by jsprag
Tue Jan 07, 2020 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TSP C/S Fund to Replicate Total Stock Market
Replies: 6
Views: 979

Re: TSP C/S Fund to Replicate Total Stock Market

Per this Vanguard page, the S&P 500 is about 82% of US market cap.

Anything around 80% will be close enough.