Search found 168 matches

by GRP
Tue Sep 01, 2020 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors Were Warned.
Replies: 171
Views: 14588

Re: Investors Were Warned.

Vineviz isn't being petty. He's the only one in this whole thread making any sense.
by GRP
Wed Aug 26, 2020 12:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A timely and equanimous article on gold
Replies: 78
Views: 6225

Re: A timely and equanimous article on gold

Let's forget about the fact that the value premium actually has been positive post-publication in the US and has been rather robust internationally post-publication (i.e. has most definitely not "disappeared"). But let's say it has in fact disappeared. I take that to me: even when you're ...
by GRP
Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A timely and equanimous article on gold
Replies: 78
Views: 6225

Re: A timely and equanimous article on gold

I understood what Uncorrelated posted. If you didn't, that doesn't make it word salad. I understood what was said and I'm keen enough to know that the approach of using abstruse mathematics simply doesn't hold water in investing. (And you're talking to someone who otherwise LOVES math.) Think about...
by GRP
Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?
Replies: 119
Views: 8224

Re: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?

columbia wrote: Wed Aug 12, 2020 7:40 am
Heck, even the Permanent Portfolio wasn't permanent. :P
Still looks plenty permanent to me.
by GRP
Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A timely and equanimous article on gold
Replies: 78
Views: 6225

Re: A timely and equanimous article on gold

Some people are so foolish that even when you bring them to water when dying of dehydration they will not drink. The gold haters hide behind an edifice of highfalutin language and statistics when all they need is a little reading of history to understand why gold is a necessary part of any diversifi...
by GRP
Wed Aug 19, 2020 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cannot Get Myself To Index
Replies: 29
Views: 3032

Re: Cannot Get Myself To Index

Put half of your equity into market cap indices. Put the other half into factor funds. Best of both worlds and minimizes regret.
by GRP
Tue Aug 18, 2020 10:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Contrafund vs SP Index Fund
Replies: 22
Views: 3047

Re: Contrafund vs SP Index Fund

Another +1 here for the Fidelity Contrafund as a nice complement to traditional index funds.

I personally don't think it's a coincidence that Danoff was trained by the formidable Peter Lynch himself.
by GRP
Tue Aug 18, 2020 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Behavioral Reasons to Avoid SCV/Factor Strategies
Replies: 148
Views: 8262

Re: Behavioral Reasons to Avoid SCV/Factor Strategies

Ahhhh the bane of being an investment enthusiast. A cross that everyone on this forum likely bears.

It's ironic that investing is so much easier for people that have absolutely zero interest in it and don't think about it.
by GRP
Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS vs TIPS ETF and speculation
Replies: 24
Views: 1618

Re: TIPS vs TIPS ETF and speculation

A market can easily have more buyers than sellers or vice versa. I could be the only guy in town selling apples and have thousands of buyers buying them from me. :wink:
by GRP
Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Fund vs Gold Fund
Replies: 90
Views: 4446

Re: TIPS Fund vs Gold Fund

Just keep in mind the history of gold in the US when you are planning your TEOTWAWKI scenarios. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_Reserve_Act Oh pfffft. The government would NEVER do anything nefarious. That's just conspiracy theory territory! :P I don't know where people get the idea that governm...
by GRP
Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Fund vs Gold Fund
Replies: 90
Views: 4446

Re: TIPS Fund vs Gold Fund

TIPS and Gold are both considered protection from inflation (if I understand correctly), but which one is better? TIPS offer guaranteed inflation protection. The guarantee is only good under conditions of mild inflation -- it will be useless under heavy/extreme inflation. Gold doesn't provide parti...
by GRP
Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PSA: gold
Replies: 80
Views: 8175

Re: PSA: gold

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Sun Jul 26, 2020 12:03 pm chasing after something after it's already moved.

remind you of anything?

The momentum factor suggests there's actually a large premium attached to doing that.
by GRP
Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 26282

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

It's happening. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-dollar-ray-dalio-warns-capital-war-between-us-china-2020-7-1029432633 Billionaire investor Ray Dalio warns a developing 'capital war' between the US and China could tank the dollar and wreak havoc with the US economy https://i.ibb.co...
by GRP
Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 26282

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

I knew that it had outperformed but I didn't realize that the margin was that large. Blue line is gold and red line is US stocks. Holy moly. :shock: The result is also surprisingly start date insensitive... Permport, do you think that the recent dollar weakness is one of the causes for gold strengt...
by GRP
Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 26282

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

The result is also surprisingly start date insensitive... Yeah, a few years either side of the Dotcom bubble leads to the same result -- gold wins. I found that pretty remarkable. It's not like cherry picking the top of the Dotcom craziness is what leads to the winning result for gold. Either way, ...
by GRP
Fri Jul 24, 2020 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 26282

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

People may also find it interesting to note that gold has easily outperformed US stocks over the last 20 years. About 9% cagr vs 6%.

The margin is even larger on an after tax basis.
by GRP
Thu Jul 23, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 26282

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

I was looking for a correction so I could buy more but gold and LT treasuries keep going up. With the uncertain future right now, I'd imagine things continue will go up, although you'd think a slight correction is due. And I'm not usually a gold investor but I started buying it about a year ago. Cu...
by GRP
Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?
Replies: 161
Views: 8898

Re: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?

Pretty bizarre that someone would try and say that CPI manipulation is somehow a fringe conspiracy theory. Something can't be a conspiracy theory when it's so obviously true. Ever since the Boskin Commission in particular it's literally publicly available information how CPI calculations have change...
by GRP
Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?
Replies: 161
Views: 8898

Re: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?

Corsair wrote: Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:16 pm
What happens to your TIPS if Uncle Sam understates the CPI? Or that could never happen?
Yes. Uncle Sam would NEVER do such a thing! :D
by GRP
Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?
Replies: 161
Views: 8898

Re: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?

The US is insolvent. In particular, if you count the unfunded liabilities default is inevitable. It’s either honest default or default through inflation. Either way, US Treasury bonds are far from riskless. As others have pointed out, the budgets of governments with monetary sovereignty don't work ...
by GRP
Sat Jul 11, 2020 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?
Replies: 161
Views: 8898

Re: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?

The US is insolvent. In particular, if you count the unfunded liabilities default is inevitable. It’s either honest default or default through inflation. Either way, US Treasury bonds are far from riskless.
by GRP
Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Permanent Portfolio in a low interest environment
Replies: 32
Views: 4462

Re: Permanent Portfolio in a low interest environment

Yes, do please join us at www.gyroscopicinvesting.com!

We serve gyros in the lounge! 😊
by GRP
Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?
Replies: 161
Views: 8898

Re: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?

I don't have hard data, but subjectively the gold threads do seem to show up when it's doing well (a decade ago, and now again ...) Yes, it's funny. Same thing with international threads, value threads, and general factor threads. Bogleheads are supposed to be above recency bias, performance chasin...
by GRP
Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?
Replies: 161
Views: 8898

Re: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?

Just to chime in with my thoughts regarding a previous post. I would personally ignore complaints about gold not being legal to own prior to 1975. We need to think globally about investing here. The U.S. population is quite a small fraction of the world's population. Google says 4.25% currently. For...
by GRP
Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?
Replies: 161
Views: 8898

Re: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?

You have the right idea, OP. Start with a 10% allocation to gold and go from there. You will have a much more well diversified portfolio than a typical stock/bond investor.

Check out a forum that was an outgrowth of bogleheads for intelligent discussion on gold. www.gyroscopicinvesting.com.
by GRP
Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Value Betting vs. The Stock Market"
Replies: 18
Views: 1891

Re: "Value Betting vs. The Stock Market"

No one investing in value today can be reasonably said to be chasing recent outperformance. On the other hand, some anti-value folks cannot seem to refrain from suggesting that the incredible recent performance of TSM is a reason to prefer it over other funds. Yes, and those same folks will say, in...
by GRP
Sat Jul 04, 2020 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 26282

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Not to belabour All Seasons' point, but for those of you still thinking those T-bills are riskless, this may make for fruitful viewing. :D

https://9gag.com/gag/a2WZDd1
by GRP
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 60/40 is dead?
Replies: 25
Views: 3596

Re: 60/40 is dead?

60/40 has been dead for a long time.

People just don't realize it because it's Weekend at Bernie's around here.
by GRP
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2
Replies: 245
Views: 24607

Re: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2

watchnerd wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:28 pm
PP's concept of risk parity matching conflates capital allocation with risk contribution, which isn't accurate.
That's not true.
by GRP
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2
Replies: 245
Views: 24607

Re: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2

Exactly.

I don't understand how the PP is a gold bug/anti-dollar portfolio. Literally 50% of the portfolio (cash and Treasury bonds) are long positions in the dollar.

That doesn't sound gold buggish to me. Instead it sounds to me, oh, I don't know, balanced? That's what it was intended to be.
by GRP
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold [why is it dropping?]
Replies: 72
Views: 3467

Re: Gold [why is it dropping?]

It’s only a hedge against strong inflation.

If inflation is mild, stocks and even cash are better protection.

Gold shows its strength as an inflation shield only when it becomes more than a minor irritant.
by GRP
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold is taking a monster hit
Replies: 64
Views: 5606

Re: Gold is taking a monster hit

To the poster way back in the thread: you should indeed fear inflation. The money printing that is coming down the pipe will likely generate no immediate inflation. But when confidence returns, that same money can come roaring into the economy with a sudden spike in prices. That happened to Germany....
by GRP
Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 3395
Views: 254283

Re: [Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!]

Yes, Taylor, and also explain how investing in SCV is an attempt to "beat the market" when none of the literature says any such thing. It's a riskier segment of the market with higher expected return, which has nothing to do with beating the market. In fact, the idea that SCV has higher ex...
by GRP
Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is $1000 worth of 40 shares better than $1000 worth of 10 shares?
Replies: 30
Views: 2077

Re: Is $1000 worth of 40 shares better than $1000 worth of 10 shares?

Yes, maybe ever so so so so so so slightly better to have the 40 shares due to better liquidity.
by GRP
Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Japan like "lost decades" possible in US and world stock market?
Replies: 82
Views: 8488

Re: Are Japan like "lost decades" possible in US and world stock market?

They absolutely can. For a variety of reasons. Economic depressions, poor monetary policy, burst bubbles, natural disasters, demographic shifts, and the ol’ black swan. In the case of Japan they’ve experience a combination of factors including bursting bubbles in real estate and stocks, in addition ...
by GRP
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corona Virus = Black Swan, Book Recommendation
Replies: 127
Views: 8427

Re: Corona Virus = Black Swan, Book Recommendation

If the definition of so-called black swans is so strict so as to only include things that are totally inconceivable or unimaginable beforehand then nothing is really a black swan. I imagine spending a weekend in Vermont with Jennifer Lawrence all the time. I can imagine quite literally anything. Th...
by GRP
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corona Virus = Black Swan, Book Recommendation
Replies: 127
Views: 8427

Re: Corona Virus = Black Swan, Book Recommendation

If the definition of so-called black swans is so strict so as to only include things that are totally inconceivable or unimaginable beforehand then nothing is really a black swan. I imagine spending a weekend in Vermont with Jennifer Lawrence all the time. I can imagine quite literally anything. Yo...
by GRP
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corona Virus = Black Swan, Book Recommendation
Replies: 127
Views: 8427

Re: Corona Virus = Black Swan, Book Recommendation

If the definition of so-called black swans is so strict so as to only include things that are totally inconceivable or unimaginable beforehand then nothing is really a black swan.

I imagine spending a weekend in Vermont with Jennifer Lawrence all the time. I can imagine quite literally anything.
by GRP
Thu Feb 27, 2020 3:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?
Replies: 16
Views: 1446

Re: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?

Mandatory gold post here. Move along.
by GRP
Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New Boglehead - Advice on Three-fund Portfolio
Replies: 11
Views: 1149

Re: New Boglehead - Advice on Three-fund Portfolio

To the OP, if I may be so bold to make a suggestion. Maybe check out Tyler's great Golden Butterfly portfolio if you have not already. It's quite fantastic, and rather more robust than the traditional 2 and 3 fund portfolios IMHO. https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/golden-butterfly/ Tyler's tools...
by GRP
Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 26282

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Just a note about Buffett, as he was mentioned a while back in regards to gold. As far as I'm concerned the logic he lays out in his famous article on gold vs stocks and bonds, isn't very good. For a number of reasons, but primarily because he commits the logical fallacy of the false dichotomy, and ...
by GRP
Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value Premium - New FF paper
Replies: 264
Views: 15173

Re: Factor Funds

The core or TSM fund has virtually all its eggs in one risk basket, market factor. Bogleheads: The above statement is VERY misleading. A U.S. total stock market index fund contains ALL the market factors. A total market index fund will never be below average in risk. Factor funds can be very risky ...
by GRP
Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 26282

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

I cannot for the life of me fathom why so many here are so quick to shun gold so much in the name of 'it doesn't have a stream of earnings', when the same can be said of the expected real return of bonds today. Granted, gold has been far more volatile than bonds, but it's also outperformed bonds an...
by GRP
Fri Feb 21, 2020 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 26282

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

In light of the clear strength of this rally I am now 98% in gold and only 2% in stocks.

It's a balanced portfolio. :twisted:
by GRP
Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 26282

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Looks like OP got their wish for $1600+ per oz. gold. Likely (but not guaranteed of course) to be a Cornoavirus fear trade. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/20/gold-surges-to-7-year-high-as-investors-seek-safety-trade.html I wouldn't call it a *wish*, per se. Any gains I might have in gold, because my ...
by GRP
Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 26282

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Looks like OP got their wish for $1600+ per oz. gold. Likely (but not guaranteed of course) to be a Cornoavirus fear trade.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/20/gold-su ... trade.html
by GRP
Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 26282

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

So it sounds like you’re saying it’s irrelevant to know whether it’s manipulated or not. I can't answer that for other people. Is it irrelevant to know that bond prices are manipulated by QE and so forth? If you're a pure passive investor you might say "Yes, it's irrelevant to know. I'll just ...
by GRP
Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold $1600 Oz - When?
Replies: 370
Views: 26282

Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Gold price manipulation by governments is real and important to know about. It's important to know about to the same extent that people should know bond prices are manipulated by central banks. Even at the very least, one can infer government intention by analyzing their action. Lest any mod thinks...
by GRP
Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Bonds vs International Bonds
Replies: 8
Views: 550

Re: US Bonds vs International Bonds

Personally, I'd include the international bonds unless it was somehow extremely cumbersome to do so. The problem with mean variance optimization frameworks is that the standard deviation of the standard deviations is so high that you can't realistically expect historically optimized portfolios to be...